Sunday night at 7 pm, MLB’s three-day draft bonanza begins, piled meaningfully between the Futures Game (which begins Sunday morning at 11 and the All Star festivities beginning on Monday). There is one thing — and just one thing — that I can say for absolute sure about the Giants’ work over the next few days: I have no idea what they’re about to do! Beyond just the normal inability to pierce the darkness of the room where it happens, if you’re the one standing out in the street, this year’s draft brings a host of new factors to obfuscate events — will the gaps in data (no Cape Cod League for this class of college Juniors, for instance) affect teams reliance on models? Will the sticky stuff crack down affect team’s faith in the pitch characteristics they’re recording? This draft brings its very own brand of “who the hell knows” to the party!
But I have readers clamoring, uh, strike that — asking respectfully for draft content — and so draft content I shall give! That’s the way the internet works, folks!
First, let’s get the details out of the way. We need a few facts before we launch into our fabrications and suppositions.
Where, When, Who, and How Much?
When: July 11-13, brought to you live from Denver, CO, home of the All Star Weekend
July 11: 7 pm, Round 1 and Competitive Balance “A” Round. MLB Network/ESPN
July 12: 1 pm, Rounds 2-10, Streaming on MLB.com
July 13: 12 pm, Rounds 11-20, Streaming on MLB.com
Giants Drafting Braintrust:
Farhan Zaidi (President of Baseball Ops)
Scott Harris (General Manager)
Michael Holmes (Director of Amateur Scouting)
Brian Bridges (National Cross-Checker)
Giants Picks:
1st Rd: #14 (slot value: $4,036,800)
2nd Rd: #50 ($1,469,900)
3rd Rd: #85 ($710,700)
Thereafter: every 30 picks (115, 145, 175, etc)
Giants Total Pool Amount: $8,070,600 (19th highest overall)
Pick slot values decline each pick through the 10th round, ranging from just over $500,000 for their 4th round pick, to ~$145,000 for their 10th round pick.
If a team fails to sign a player drafted in the first 10 rounds, the amount of that pick’s slot value is subtracted from the team’s overall pool.
For picks made from the 11-20 round, the first $125,000 of a signing bonus does not count against the the pool, but any amount over that does. However, teams are not penalized for failing to sign players drafted from the 11-20 rounds.
Teams that go over their bonus pool are penalized. Teams that spend 0-5% more than their allotment must pay 75% on the overage. Teams that go more than 5% over their allotment pay the 75% penalty plus a loss of future draft choices. In nine years under this current system, teams have gone over their bonus pool allotment 152 times, but no team has ever crossed the 5% threshold and surrendered future draft choices. The Giants are one of four teams who have gone over their allotment in the 0-5% range every year (Cardinals, Cubs, and Dodgers are the others).
And, with that, we have ended the facts-based portion of today’s journey. From here on out, we read tea leaves — tea leaves that have been drunk, drained, tossed away, and then sketched from memory, only to have a stranger describe the sketch to me via text, while using Google Translate put the description into English. Ill-based conjecture, in other words, is the order of the day!
But having watched the Giants behavior for the past two years, and listened as close to the many, many lines of chatter that always accompany a draft — some well-informed, some less so — I do have thoughts, and I’ll try to present them to you as clearly as possible.
What I’ll do here, today, is take a look at the group of players that I think could be the Giants pick at #14, in reverse order of likelihood (in my unfounded opinion). And, along the way, I’ll provide some of my thinking as to why I’ve arranged them this way.
First, let’s strike out several players who are almost certainly not going to be available for the Giants to worry about, unless things get very, very weird. There are almost certainly eight players who won’t escape the top 10 under any but the strangest scenarios, so let’s strike them from our thoughts right here and now: the group four top high school shortstops (Marcelo Mayer, Jordan Lawler, Brady House, Khalil Watson), the two Vanderbilt right-handers (Jack Leiter, Kumar Rocker), Louisville catcher Henry Davis, and Oklahoma HS right-hander Jackson Jobe. Each of these players is exciting and wonderful in his own way, but the sequence of events required to get any of them to the Giants pick would defeat the mind of God to consider. We shant be discussing them today.
Beyond that group of eight, however, is a very, very intriguing group of three who need to be placed in a separate category, and that group is the best non-Davis tier of college bats: Boston College’s Sal Frelick, UCLA’s Matt McLain, and Sam Houston State’s Colton Cowser. The Giants have gone with a college bat with the top pick in each of their previous two drafts and while I don’t think that they are dogmatic about it (the A’s certainly mixed in high school players with their top picks in the drafts that both Zaidi and Holmes were a part of), I do think that college bats are a comfort zone for every team in the draft, as they tend to come with the longest track records and with some of their warts already ironed out.
It is an absolute truth of MLB drafts that the best college hitters will rise up boards in the final days as teams come closer and closer to their decisions. Therein lies the rub: this year that group of “best college hitters” is this small group of three, and if they rise at all, they will rise well out of the Giants’ reach. So I need to place them in their own group — because if any of this trio does make it to 14, I think the Giants will gladly pluck them off the board, but I also find it highly unlikely that any are available to the Giants. So: highly desired, highly unlikely.
Still, let’s break them down.
Sal Frelick, CF, Boston College
5’9”, 175 lb
Age at Draft: 21.2
Never previously drafted
It feels like Frelick has gone through a Marvel movie’s worth of plot twists this year, first racing up boards as he got off to a monster start to his year (and occasionally took infield practice to show off versatility) and then falling back down them due more to prospect fatigue than anything else (though scouts do wonder where the power tool will land). Frelick hits everything, is an explosive athlete in a small package, a dynamic speed threat, and has a very strong history of game performance. He’s also from Boston College so you know I’m on board (yes, I went to a lot of schools in my time). A true CF and top of the lineup hitter, were he to slide to the Giants I’m sure they’d snap up quickly — and they’d be right to do so! This kid can play. Sometimes the biggest gifts DO come in the smallest packages!
Matt McLain, SS, UCLA
5’10”, 170 lbs.
Age at Draft: 21.9
Previously Drafted: D’backs, 2018 (1st rd)
McLain has been through quite a few narrative twists and turns this year as well. McLain spurned the Diamondbacks as a 1st round pick in 2018 and headed to UCLA, where he got off to a somewhat disappointing start his Freshman year. But a strong Cape and solid performance in his COVID-abbreviated Sophomore year had him ranked near the top of the class coming into 2021. But he started slowly this year and then suffered a broken thumb, and there was talk that he could slide all the way out of the 1st round. But like any good thriller, the hero returned in the final reel to finish strong, hitting .323/.429/.569 with nine home runs — triumphantly returning him to the top ranks of his class. McLain is a somewhat polarizing player — he has a strong performance record, but there is some debate as to what kind of player he will be as a pro. While some see a versatile athlete with the speed and talent to stick at shortstop or even play capably in CF, others see a tweener type who could slide down the defensive scale (say 2b) and not have quite the power you’d like to see at such positions (I’ll admit, I incline towards that second position). My guess is his very loud Junior year will blunt any such criticisms, especially coming off an injury that could have ruined his year.
Colton Cowser, OF, Sam Houston State
6’3”, 195 lbs.
Age at Draft: 21.3
Never Previously Drafted
Unlike the other two members of this triad, Cowser didn’t suffer any roller coaster ride in his Junior year. He came into the spring considered one of the best bats in his class, and he just kept on hitting. In a year in which many scouts have bemoaned the lack of top college bats, Cowser brings one of the longest, most consistent performance records of the class. He hits, he hits for power, he even steals bases (17 this year). Questions about Cowser tend to focus on the level of competition he saw playing at a mid-major school. Even that knock, however, is balanced out by his participation on the Team USA squad following his Freshman year — the first member of Sam Houston State to make the national team. If you guessed that he hit while with Team USA — why, you’d be right! Cowser doesn’t just produce stats, he has a long track record of hitting quality fastballs. According to some insider data, Cowser had more extra base hits (19) off fastballs this year than swing and misses (17). While he’s spent much of the year drifting in the shadows of Frelick and McLain, he also seems to me the perfect target for teams at the top of the draft looking for underslot deals so they can spend more elsewhere. I can definitely see him leaping up to the higher echelons of the draft much as Heston Kjerstad did last year when the Orioles shockingly made him the #2 pick.
So, again, just to be clear: I suspect the Giants will leap gladly at any of this trio if they’re available at 14. I find it highly unlikely that any of this trio will be available at 14. Two things can be true at the same time! Let us move on.
With those suspects out of the way, let me dig into the group of players who I think it more likely to be there when the Giants pick. In reverse order, here are the guys I suspect the Giants braintrust might be discussing most passionately in the days leading up to the draft.
Colson Montgomery, SS, Southridge HS (Ind)
6’3”, 195 lbs
Age at Draft: 19.4
Honestly, I don’t much believe this one myself, as Montgomery is one of the oldest kids in his high school class and the Giants are generally considered to be one of the teams that place a high value on age in their models. That said, Montgomery is said to be making quite a charge up boards late in the spring, even getting some buzz at the back of the top 10, and there have been a few pretty good prospect success stories from older high school players the last few years (Jarred Kelenic, to take one example). While the Giants might look askance at Montgomery’s age, they are likely to be enticed by his up the middle athleticism — they’ve been attached to a wide assortment of high school position players this year and everyone in the group shares that trait. Montgomery is also a star basketball player (where he shoots with his left hand) and brings the long levers that you’d associate with a star basketball player to create leverage and launch angle in his swing. Some scouts see a power over hit type hitter, but that’s fine at shortstop and could even be enough if he has to move over to 3b. He’s one of several multi-sport high schoolers the Giants have been said to be interested in, such as…
Bubba Chandler, RHP/SS, North Oconee HS (GA)
6’3”, 200 lbs.
Age at Draft: 18.8
You want athleticism? Bubba Chandler is a freakishly good athlete who is an excellent two-way star on the baseball field, where most teams seem to prefer him on the mound where he touches 97 and shows decent control for a high schooler. A switch-hitter, because, of course, he is, Chandler has expressed interest in getting to play both sides of the ball as a pro. And he’ll have a ton of leverage in those negotiations because he’s also committed to play QB at Clemson and is considered one of the finer QB prospects in his high school class. The Giants have reportedly sent plenty of their top brass in to see Chandler this spring, so he obviously intrigues them, but it’s far from an obvious fit. Their bonus pool might have trouble coming up with enough $$motivation$$ to keep him from slinging the pigskin in the ACC, and it’s really hard to imagine the Giants going after a HS pitcher in the top half of the top round. It sure would be a bold statement though! The Giants have actually had a little heat on yet another Clemson football commit, South Carolina OF Will Taylor (who is committed to play Wide Receiver for the Tigers). I thought about putting Taylor at 10, but not only does he come with the same huge bonus demands as Chandler, he’s also the subject of heavy rumors that the Angels might make him the #9 pick, thus taking him off the board for the Giants (but potentially pushing down one of that top 3! — isn’t Game Theory fun?). If Taylor does make it past the Angels (who also are said to be enamored of Benny Montgomery, discussed below), then I might well end up regretting that I didn’t find a spot for him on this board. He combines athleticism and upside with cutting edge data that suggests an advanced hit tool and that’s a hard combination to over look! And let’s not forget that draft czar Michael Holmes was part of the decision-making team that took Kyler Murray high in the 1st round — that didn’t work out for the A’s, but it does suggest a history of finding that sort of two-sport athleticism strongly appealing.
Sam Bachman, RHP, Miami (Ohio)
6’1”, 235 lbs
Age at Draft: 21.8
Never previously drafted
Nobody climbed higher or faster up boards this spring than Miami (Ohio)’s right-hander Sam Bachman — but then nobody threw faster than Bachman this spring either, so that figures. Bachman got tongues wagging early on when he started hitting triple digits in his starts and pairing that heat with a hard, biting slider that scouts graded as a 70 pitch itself. That makes him the only pitcher in this draft with two different 70 pitches. “Sign me up!” right? Well, not so fast. Bachman missed time this year with various ailments and sorenesses, and he has a somewhat awkward, effort-full delivery that makes even observers begin to rub their arms in pain. Delivery concerns, medical concerns, along with the fact that he didn’t pitch into the 7th once all year, combine to shackle Bachman with a considerable amount of the dreaded “reliever risk.” Still, a starter that throws 100 won’t last too long in any draft. The Giants, though, have seemingly been trending away from velocity in their last two drafts, which makes it hard for me to believe they’ll be the one to take Bachman off the board.
Will Bednar, RHP, Mississippi State
6’2”, 229 lbs
Age at Draft: 21.1
Never previously drafted
Ah, now this seems like more of the Giants sweet spot — a pitchability guy whose lower 90s fastballs induce a ton of swing and misses. Think Caleb Kilian if you will! Bednar suffered a shoulder injury in his senior year in high school that caused teams to avoid him in the draft, and his college career had delays as well — first COVID and then a neck issue that had him late getting onto the field this year. But once he took the mound, he started trending in the right direction and stayed on that trajectory right through the year. How’s striking out 15 Texas Longhorns to open the College World Series for hitting your stride at the right time? That wasn’t even the climax of Bednar’s heroics, as he came back on three days rest to pitch the CWS clincher for Mississippi State, holding the defending champion Vanderbilt Commodores hitless for six innings in the finale. Bednar doesn’t bring any 70 pitches, but everything plays up because of his ability to throw strikes with all of his pitches, and an innate ability to mix speeds and zones. Now this is feeling more like a Giants’ pick!
Ty Madden, RHP, Texas
6’3”, 215 lbs
Age at Draft: 21.4
Previously Drafted: Royals, 2018 (34th rd)
I really was sorely tempted to swap the order of Bednar and Ty Madden, but Madden has been considered one of the jewels of this college pitching crop for so long that I have trouble believing the Giants would let him slide by them if he’s available. Madden combined some of the best velocity in this class (regularly touching the high 90s) with above average control and extremely reliable game performances. And, in this case, I’m not going back to that “do the Giants like velocity” well that caused me to drop Bachman down — of course, they do! Everyone likes velocity! It’s why they wanted Kevin Gausman and why they still believe in Tyler Beede. Velocity really IS good. It’s just that, in this particularly case, Madden’s high-end velocity seems to come with questions about the other pitch characteristics that go along with that velocity. Unlike the modern trend, Madden’s fastball works best down at the bottom of the zone (like folks used to pitch!). He doesn’t have the hop at the top of the zone, which makes you wonder whether the Trackman (and by extension the Giants) is loving his spin rate, his effective spin rate, his perceived velocity, etc. (Of course, you also wonder if teams are viewing spin rate darlings with something of a gimlet eye this summer, given the sticky stuff crackdown). The Bednar/Madden debate is a fascinating lens on our specific moment in time — five years ago, heck maybe three!, Madden would have been the obvious choice based purely on the radar gun. Now? I’m not so sure. Still, the bigger thing standing in the way of a Madden pick is that he’s very likely to be gone by the time pick #14 comes along. Velo and performance still mean a lot, after all.
Harry Ford, C, North Cobb HS (GA)
5’10”, 200 lbs
Age at Draft: 18.4I live my life by simple rules. I like to sit in a rocking chair when I read. I drink scotch in winter and white wine in summer. I wear comfortable clothes. I abhor high school catchers. These little rules make my life easy! So every time my friend Brian Recca tells me of his adoration for Ford, I run away screaming with a pillow over my ears and (freshly laundered) sock stuffed in my mouth: “No, No, NO high school catchers!” They’re my own personal wire hangers. But I broke that rule last year for Tyler Soderstrom (Legacy Giant!) and there seem to be compelling reasons to set it aside for Ford as well. Ford is uniquely athletic, showcasing some of the very best speed in his high school class. He ran the second fastest 60 time at last year’s East Coast Pro (6.42) and many think he could handle several other positions — a sort of high school version of the Giants own Brett Auerbach. He also packs a ton of power into his 5’10” frame. We know how Farhan loves his multi-dimensional catchers. Could he really make it three of the last four years? Maybe?
Michael McGreevy, RHP, UC Santa Barbara
6’4”, 200 lbs
Age at Draft: 21.0
Never Previously Drafted
I’m definitely showcasing my biases here — or better said, my best guess at the Giants’ biases. While I shoved the guys with the huge fastballs down at the bottom of this list, I’m boosting up to the top the premium strike thrower in the country. And, no doubt, I’m trying to guess with the trends here — “smart clubs” seem to be coming around to the notion that it’s easier to teach velocity than it is to teach command, turning on its head the old maxim that “you can’t teach 98” or pick your velo. The Giants are a smart club! So I’m guessing that this is why we’re seeing them go after a lot of guys with command profiles like Kyle Harrison and Caleb Kilian, or in a different setting, Kai-Wei Teng. I don’t want to make too much of this supposition. After all, they also asked Minnesota for Prelander Berroa, who really is the classic “you can’t teach 98” model.
All of which leads me back to the fast rising McGreevy, one of the most fascinating players in the draft. McGreevy was a pop up kid in his senior year of high school, but didn’t pop up high enough to induce the kind of offer that would keep him off campus. He garnered some honors after his Freshman year, during which he pitched out of the bullpen, and then he moved into the Gaucho’s rotation in his Sophomore year, getting off to a tremendous start before COVID shut things down. So he came into 2021 as a known commodity, but for one reason or another, he’s never quite put together the kind of track record that grabs attention — until this year! Over the course of 2021, he’s become the best college pitcher on the West Coast and a case study in what modern teams are valuing in pitchers. His calling card is elite level command along with a solid mix of four pitches. Because he attends Santa Barbara, there’s a natural (if somewhat unfair) tendency to compare him to Shane Bieber, who was also a command over stuff pitcher with the Gauchos before blossoming into one of the premier pitchers in the American League (and, simultaneously, helping to establish Cleveland’s credentials as a “smart club”). It’s unfair because Bieber’s increase in velocity has been somewhat extreme, but it’s also not totally unfair because scouts believe McGreevy possesses even better command than Bieber did at the time he left Santa Barbara. Add to that the velocity increases that McGreevy has already shown at the college level and you have one particularly appealing package — to a certain type of team. Oh, and let’s toss in that he’s one of the youngest players in his college class, for those draft models that love “young for class.” As I say, he’s a fascinating pitcher, but he may be an even more fascinating litmus test on what the industry is valuing these days.
Benny Montgomery, OF, Red Land HS (PA)
6’4” 195 lbs
Age at Draft: 18.8
Montgomery feels like this year’s version of last year’s Tyler Soderstrom rumors — there just to tantalize and ultimately frustrate a noted lover of toolsy high schoolers like myself. But the smoke on this connection has been running thick and hot throughout the spring, and it seems certain that there’s some level of fire stoking it all. Montgomery is another tremendously athletic up the middle player. He features true 80 grade speed, a powerful arm, enough defensive acumen to stick in center field and plenty of raw power. The Baseball America scouting report for Montgomery includes this line:
the minute Montgomery signs, he will be one of the toolsiest players in his organization.
But it also includes a line of previous 1st round picks who fit Montgomery’s profile of premium athlete with some question about the ability to hit: Bubba Starling, Donovan Tate, Lewis Brinson, Bubba Thompson. Notice anything about that group? Yeah. As exciting as the tools are, the risk is sky high. Montgomery has a long, lean frame that could grow into plus power, but long levers that may never come together in a fluid player. It’s easy to understand why Montgomery could be the first high school outfielder off the board this year, but it’s also easy to see why teams should be wary. He’s sort of the anti-Luis Matos. Where Matos impresses you more, the longer you watch him, Montgomery jumps out at you with a bang on first impression, but will he frustrate you the longer you watch? Montgomery is a true wild card in the 1st round, with rumors that he could pop up as high as the top 10 or sink down into the back 20. Both Colorado and the Phillies are also rumored to be interested in drafting Montgomery, who seems to be flying up boards the closer we get to draft day.
Jordan Wicks, LHP, Kansas State
6’3”, 220 lbs
Age at Draft: 21.9
Never previously drafted
It sometimes feels difficult to talk about Wicks without making it all feel like a left-handed compliment, and I suppose I intend the pun, since it’s absolutely Wicks’ left-handedness that will lead his name to be called near the top of this year’s draft. He’s unquestionably this draft’s best left-handed pitcher and it’s not particularly close. He may well be the only left-handed pitcher whose name is called on the first night of the draft. But after that, it gets a little more difficult to write raves about him. He does have what is considered to be the best changeup in the draft, an offering that is a true 70 pitch. Beyond that, the scores tend more towards average, although his fastball has the kind of pitch characteristics that teams prioritize these days. Wicks also has a solid track record of performance — you might not be impressed by his 3.70 ERA as a Junior, but K-State offers up one of the more hitter friendly environments in the Big 12. Wicks has a reputation as a fervent competitor, which helps his repertoire play up, something like another former Big 12 lefty, Dallas Keuchel. Wicks isn’t a sexy pick, but he’s a strike throwing lefty with a high floor and a history of success, which makes him something of a unicorn in this year’s draft.
Gunnar Hoglund, RHP, University of Mississippi
6’4”, 220 lbs.
Age at Draft: 21.6
Previously Drafted: Pirates 2018 (Supplemental 1st)
In a sense, my sense of what’s driving the Giants’ decision making for this year’s draft has been taking me steadily down the path of least risk. At every flashy billboard along the road, promising adventures galore, I’ve plowed on, eschewing the big fastballs, the gaudy tools grades, the siren’s call of potential, and focused more and more on track record, performance, and the sweet, sweet comfort of predictability. It’s not too surprising, then, that my journey ends at the feet of a pitcher who has been considered a safe, reliable, high-floor starting pitcher type since he was in high school (where the Pirates made him their supplemental 1st rounder in 2018).
But this story has twists! The first of those came when Hoglund, whose calling cards have always been command and control and a solid feel for his three-pitch mix, showed up at Mississippi with more “good muscle” and physicality. He took his new body to the mound and started shoving. Suddenly, the polished pitcher who threw strikes, was throwing strikes with a fastball that had jumped up into the 93-95 range, and a slider with similar added velo and bite. Like McGreevy, Hoglund had added stuff onto a command over stuff profile. For much of the spring, he looked like he was pitching his way into the top 10 picks of the draft. Ah, but then came twist number 2, and with it my true detour off of Safety Road: in his May 7 start against Texas Tech he blew out his elbow and underwent Tommy John surgery. That was the end of Hoglund’s top 10 hopes, but it was the beginning of teams looking at him like as potentially the biggest value of the middle of the first round. A player whose talent is worthy of a top 10 pick, but who might be available later than that, and all you have to overlook is a slight major surgery and year-long rehab? There are definitely clubs who can do the math on that type of value play. “Smart clubs.” The Giants are a smart club! Hmm…there’s risk here — contrary to popular thought TJ is still risky — but the upside is undeniable. Hoglund has great command, great feel, a high floor, and potentially more gas in the tank. And despite the rehab, he’s the type of pitcher who is likely to move fast in the pros, just as he was an immediate contributor to a major conference college as soon as he reached campus. Upside and a high floor is an intoxicating combination, and I say the Giants won’t be able to resist its heady flavors.
So, there’s my call: the Giants are taking a player who won’t see a mound until sometime in 2022, but who will hopefully be very impressive once he does!
Of course, it’s likely the Giants won’t be thinking these things at all! Maybe they really do want a high school pitcher, like say JSerra High’s Gage Jump, or Thatcher Hurd who spent his first three years of high school in nearby Lafayette, CA (where he was a teammate of infielder Davis Diaz, who I’ve already suggested would be a very appealing 2nd or 3rd round pick for the Giants), although Hurd has announced he intends to head to UCLA.
ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel recently noted that if this were a normal year, some small school hitters would have been able to push their way into the 1st round with strong Cape Cod showings and, without that opportunity, lurk as potential sleeper values. Maybe the Giants follow that logic to guys like Wright State 2b Tyler Black, Eastern Illinois SS Trey Sweeney, or South Alabama OF Ethan Wilson. Maybe they’ll have a wild card up their sleeve that nobody sees coming. But, for today at least, I’m going with Hoglund as the pick (with maybe just a little dream in my heart for Montgomery).
Now, if you’d like to read something with real insight into what is happening inside a team’s draft War Room, enjoy this terrific piece from Kevin Goldstein!
And as always, these free There R Giants supplements don’t come around too often, so if you like it, why not subscribe to all of my posts?
Hey, for once, I feel like I can actually contribute something of value in the comments! I’ve been a Gaucho for the past four years, so I’ve seen a good deal of McGreevy. Amateur scouting report on him:
Pros: No burying the lede, the command is plus-plus at it’s best and still above-average even on Mike’s worst days. Most games, he basically lives in the shadow/chase zone, and he’s the poster child for how to “attack” hitters without “going right after them”. He pounds the zone relentlessly, but unlike a lot of guys who get that said about them, he does that and still manages not to leave a lot of fat pitches in the nitro zone. It’s the kind of control that means we probably shouldn’t really pay attention to his minor league stats until he’s at AA or higher, because I think he could carve the lower levels never throwing anything but a fastball.
And the velo bump is legit, in my opinion. I know a guy’s size and physicality is nowhere near everything that goes into determining how hard he throws. But trust me from standing next to McGreevy, his frame is about as starter prototypical as it gets and there’s power in it. I’m a swarthy 6’0”, 230ish pounds who’s never skipped leg day and is a proud member of the Thunder Thighs club, and Mike’s lower half puts me to shame. I don’t think he’ll be a fireballer by any means, but he should have no problem sitting at 93 and reaching back for more in the bigs, maybe a little more if he can shorten his arm stroke in the back a bit without impacting his feel.
The other big thing Mike’s got going for him is that he has at least 3 distinct pitches with different movement profiles. His fastball gets good sink and has that late, really aesthetically pleasing hard arm side snap you see on running two-seamers. His slider plays well off the sinker at 82-85, and when he stays on top of the pitch it’s got good vertical depth. His curveball does too, at around 76-78, but it also sometimes gets that signature hump that lets you identify it early. And his change is pretty much exactly average-looking, though it gets decent results because it’s always where it needs to be. Which takes me to……
Cons: Other than his sinker, nothing McGreevy throws really snaps or dives like a plus pitch. His slider is the best of his secondaries and that has some good bite on its best attempts. But all of Mike’s offspeed stuff can tend to get a little….slurvy’s not the right word, since he maintains their movement profiles well, but the movement itself on his secondaries isn’t the nastiest or sharpest. I definitely think he’d benefit from a pitch lab breaking down his stuff at a micro level and tinkering to see if they can’t find a better grip or wrist posture or what have you. That leads me into my biggest concern- the fastball shape. McGreevy throws a two-seamer, and his regular arm action would seem to suggest that’s what is best suited for him. Even with more velo, it’s not likely to miss a bunch of bats, and that has the potential to be a problem when his other pitches are all still a little undercooked. However, something I’ve noticed is that McGreevy tends to throw his curveball from a higher arm slot, which is what makes it look a little like a 12-6 (I don’t think it actually is, but it’s fairly close.) While that currently makes his curve a little too easy to identify, it also makes me think he could throw a decent four-seam fastball from that slot as well. I don’t think Mike has great raw spin (I’ve never seen a Trackman reading), but I think he gets good spin efficiency from that higher slot because his curveball still has good downward plane. And I think his command is so good, he could pitch up in the zone effectively anyway because he can aim in on the hands or above and away and not worry about leaking back into the heart of the zone. So I do wonder if any progressive pitching orgs are looking at him and wondering if a few mechanical changes couldn’t coax more swing and miss out of his repertoire.
Overall, I am of course extremely biased when it comes to Mike McGreevy and I think there’s an efficient, innings eating #3 starter peak in there. But I still have to qualify my endorsement of him with the caveat that I think what kind of pitching dev staff gets a hold of him will be the single biggest factor in how bright his prospect star shines. I think if he just develops as is, he turns into a 4/5 starter who will get to his production through volume of innings and soft contact. But if he follows his fellow alumnus the Biebs and adds some new wrinkles, I think he’ll ascend to a new level of pitcher. And I think I now trust the Giants enough to wholeheartedly endorse the pick if he’s it.
I’d prefer Bednar/Madden/Ford, I think. I fully expect to be disappointed.😊