Dog Days Free For All Mailbag

Well, we forgot to open the ol’ mailbag last week and I’m fearful to try and lift it up today, lest it got overstuffed in the interim! (/lifts bag, shakes around). Hmm…. no not too heavy. I think I can carry this back upstairs to the study and try to get some corresponding work done.

It’s Free For All Mailbag time, once again! Let’s go…

Scott C.

These mailbags are fantastic. Thanks for doing them, Roger. How do you see the middle infielders' playing time being doled out early next season at the lower levels? (I can't wait several months for your Depth Chart series!) With Walker Martin and a fleet of college middle infielders (mostly shortstops) joining the org and some incumbents looking in need of a level repeat, roster creativity may be at a premium. Who do you feel might join Diego Velasquez at High-A in the spring? Do you see Martin as a good bet to break camp with High-A or might he be ticketed for the ACL because of a glut of more experienced players?

Thanks Scott! I appreciate the warm response! Yes, there are going to be a lot of bodies needing to wedge themselves into a limited supply of space next year, aren’t there? I must admit that I haven’t thought too much about it as of yet — but thanks for plugging the Depth Charts series — that’s definitely going to be coming up after the season is over. That’s how I get my head around the difficult task of ranking the system’s prospects.

I do assume that Aeverson Arteaga will be heading for Richmond and that Diego Velasquez opens the year in Eugene. Beyond that, things start getting confusing. Ghordy Santos hasn’t quite that proven he deserves to get the push up to Double A yet and I would say that the same is true of Dilan Rosario, Anthony Rodriguez, and Jose Ramos (who was just sent back down to the ACL) in terms of forcing the issue to move up to Eugene. And yet, as you say, there is pressure from below coming, with Cole Foster, Maui Ahuna, and Walker Martin all probably in line for a San Jose assignment.

Without having thought too much about it yet, I’ll say at first blush that Foster gets the “Wade Meckler Push” up to Eugene to pair with Velasquez, with some collection of Santos, Rosario, and/or Andrew Kachel providing depth. Ahuna and Martin will start at San Jose — perhaps with Martin moving over to 3b and Ramos, Quinn McDaniel, or Rodriguez taking most of the 2b time? I absolutely grant myself the right to offer completely different versions in the upcoming Depth Charts and Way Too Early Roster Previews however!

totalfan62

What is the status of Keaton Winn? Can we expect him to pitch again in 2023, or are the Giants taking the cautious approach and shutting him down? Also, do you think Kyle Harrison will promoted to SF to help with the rotation issues?

Winn had an MRI on July 29 that showed no structural damage in his sore elbow, which was obviously great news. There is inflammation, however, which needs to be dispelled before he can pitch again. The Giants are still hopeful that the injury won’t end his season, but there are, of course, unknowns in that calculation: how long it will take for the inflammation to be completely gone, whether there are any setbacks beyond that in trying to get ramped back up (sometimes inflammation can hide damage that doesn’t become apparent until subsequent MRIs are taken), and, of course, whether there’s actually sufficient time left in the year at that point for him to safely grease back up.

Right now, it’s just a waiting game for the elbow to get back to good. Once he feels good, then it will make sense to start considering the timing and logistics of getting him back.

MikeH

Should we be concerned about Ryan Reckley? Not in the Top 30 Prospects, hitting has been poor and fielding errors woeful.

Absolutely. Reckley’s struggles this year have been dramatic. Striking out 40% of time in rookie league isn’t something that you see many players come back from, and, as you say, his defensive woes — 19 errors in 40 games — have been nearly as extreme.

If you want a shred of hope to hold onto, I suppose you could look at the current level of success that P.J. Hilson is having in his age 22 season. As an 18-year-old in his second season of complex play, Hilson hit .220, struck of 37% of the time, and posted a wRC+ of 84. That’s still better than Reckley’s .164 average, 39% K rate, and 62 wRC+, but at least it gives you some kind of comp on which to hang your hat if you hope to see Reckley turn into something like the player the team envisioned when it signed him to a bonus of over $2 million. But “concerned” is “given up.” Every path is its own and unlike the path trod by any other player. There are still tools to develop, and a smart dedicated kid working on developing them.

Duncan T

Estanlin Cassiani put up a monstrous batting average in the DSL last season (.375 after flirting with .400 for a while) but I think that there was a feeling of 'let's wait and see what happens against tougher pitching'. After a reasonably unremarkable first couple of months at the complex, he looks like he has started to find his feet. Are scouts starting to take a closer look, or is the jury still out on the hit tool?

I can’t say that I’ve heard any scouts who cover the Giants’ system bring up Cassiani’s name. He has shown himself to have pretty good contact abilities, but so far, he hasn’t really shown much beyond that in his skillset. Cassiani isn’t a very big kid and Exit Velocities don’t show much hard contact (his maximum EV in 2022 was in the mid-90s, though I haven’t seen data on him this year), and he does have a tendency to go outside the zone a bit. He also isn’t a particularly physical player or possessor of any of those tools that light up a scouting card — top of the line speed, big arm, eye-popping defense etc.

Cassiani will turn 21 in the offseason, and, if he can work his way into a full-season assignment next spring, he’ll be a good age for Low A, not terribly different than a college draft pick (he’s about 10 months younger than Cole Foster, for instance). So that would be a good test for him to see if he can keep up the contact and batting average success, while adding on to some of the other parts of his game. In general, I’d say that he’s one of those players (of whom the minors are full) who will need to “prove out” at every level to keep moving his way up the ladder. I don’t mean that to sound dismissive — there are plenty of guys like that on major league rosters around the league. An advanced ability to make contact is certainly a nice tool to have in the shed as a starting point.

Daniel

There are a lot of lefty relievers in the Sac Bullpen (Erik Miller, Chris Wright, Nick Swiney, Juan Sanchez, Raymond Burgos, etc.) that are intriguing. Could any help the team if we need a third lefty or if either Taylor Rogers or Scott Alexander go down? Also, with Alexander a FA at the end of the year, could any of these guys be the second lefty in the bullpen next year?

Nice to have so many quality arms nearby, isn’t it? I will say that I think the major league bullpen is stocked with more leftys than you’re counting, however, since both Sean Manaea and Alex Wood have been pitching out of the pen pretty consistently, and Manaea has been incredibly effective (in fact, I think making him the #1 lefty for late inning work, a la Drew Pomeranz, wouldn’t be the worst idea in the world).

As far as guys stepping right into a 3rd or 2nd lefty, I guess I’d go back to the old Dusty Baker comment: “I’m not in the giving it away business, I’m in the making you earn it business.” The entryway for any, or all, of these relief arms will be as, first, up and down guys — an injury takes place, an opportunity knocks, and then the guy who gets that opportunity performs well enough to get more. We’ve seen that basic storyline play out this year, for instance, with Ryan Walker (and in the past with, say, Tyler Rogers), while the amount of guys who got such opportunities but weren’t able to seize them are, of course, legion.

The best stuff in that group certainly belongs to Miller, but Swiney’s changeup and Wright’s fastball/curve combo both can miss plenty of bats. The key for all three of those guys, however, is throwing enough strikes, and all three have had issues with that aspect of their game at times. Sanchez is the best strike thrower of the group, but doesn’t bring the plus pitch that some of the others offer. Burgos has a funky angle and an interesting fastball/change combo, but again, it’s more solid than “wow!”

Which is really as much as to say that you can see any of these guys finding that tweak that improves them just enough to get a call and then run with it, but you can also imagine a scenario where they just don’t quite stand out enough to advance beyond this point and other names move past them (as happened to Joey Marciano). They’re all very close, and they all have strengths and weaknesses. Sometimes, it’s just about being in the right place at the right time.

Daniel

I'd like your takes on the prospect re-rankings by MLB Pipeline and Baseball America. I was surprised by MLB Pipeline putting Mason Black and Hayden Birdsong at 9 and 10 while placing Winn down at 16. Also, Baseball America putting Carson Whisenhunt at 5 behind Eldridge and Martin was surprising. Thoughts?

I would say it’s bad form to comment directly on other outlets’ rankings, especially those put out by people for whom I have tremendous respect — as I certainly do for both Jim Callis and Josh Norris, two of the best in the prospecting business and two professionals with a lot more industry contacts than I have.

So, I’m not really going to answer your question too directly. I guess I will just say a few things about building rankings in general. The first, and most important thing, is that no two sets of eyes ever look at a player and see the same exact thing. We all bring our own filters, proclivities, and personal values to any evaluation process, and it’s just a fact that seeing any player for a few days when they aren’t performing, or are performing brilliantly, will color things. The next question down focuses on the defensive skills of Aeverson Arteaga, and while I will say that there’s general agreement among most evaluators I’ve spoken with regarding his defensive abilities, I did once speak with a scout who was down on them, just as Josh Norris told me (on one of his podcast appearances) that they had gotten feedback from one industry source who didn’t like Casey Schmitt’s glove. Trust me, if there’s an opinion that is possible to have — somebody out there has it.

That’s a big part of how rankings come out so differently — depending on who you talk to, you’re going to hear very different things. And then, everybody has their own personal philosophies regarding how much weight they give to ceiling vs floor or proximity to the majors, etc. Shake those ingredients up together and they can come out tasting differently from dish to dish.

Generally, however, what I think all major outlets do as a process these days, is try to place a grade on all players and then have some sort of risk assessment factor connected to that, and generally put the players in an order based on those two elements. For big outlets like BA and MLB who cover the draft extensively, when a new draft class comes in, they will fold those players into an org’s ranking simply by fitting the players in wherever their Future Value going into the draft would place them. If a player was considered a 55 (slightly above average major league regular) going into the draft, they will be placed in with the 55s and above the 50s in their new organization. As an addendum to that, most 1st round guys are going to be in that 50 FV grade range, so the higher they slot in for these outlets, the fewer other players in the system are viewed to be future average starters (implying something about the overall sense of a given system).

I try to take the same approach, but I really have no capacity for draft coverage — I’m certainly not out at showcases or college games putting eyes on these guys, and most of my industry contacts are on the pro side, not the amateur side. That’s why I tend to be pretty conservative — and to be perfectly honest, somewhat tentative — about folding the new draftees into my Top 50. I like to see guys get into pro player development and mix it up in the pro game before I feel very confident about rating and ranking. That’s the limit of a one-man band.

Last thought: none of this is science or a math equation. It’s all trying to guess at nebulous futures. So, getting a lot of different perspectives is actually much more helpful than if every outlet just put out the same basic list.

cs

In Fangraphs' long-delayed writeup, Arteaga is described as a player who "isn't a slick-fielding, future Gold Glover by any stretch, but he's a suitable defender for his age." In contrast, I think you once described Arteaga as the best SS in the system. Are both statements true, or do you believe that he has significant defensive abilities that Longenhagen missed?

So yeah, as with my comment above, Eric Longenhagen is someone for whom I have tremendous respect and someone whom I try to learn from all the time. His work is almost entirely based on his own scouting of players and the number of guys he actually gets out and sets eyes on is kind of unbelievable. Great guy and great at his job (plus a wonderfully descriptive writer).

But to your question, the list of players whom the Giants developed who turned into Gold Glove shortstops has exactly one name on it, so it certainly could be that both statements are true. Arteaga is absolutely the best defensive shortstop in the system that I’ve seen, and I don’t think anybody is really challenging him to that honor.

My view of Arteaga is that he’s a player whose glove is going to give him a career — a survival tool that will allow him to provide value even if the bat lags behind (or until it catches up). He has great hands, excellent range in both directions (despite not being a terribly fast player), and he’s always shown me a strong internal clock. And I’ve spoken with enough scouts and evaluators who share that opinion that I feel confident in the assessment. I have questions about the bat, but I don’t about the glove, which is why he was my #4 prospect on the Top 50 last winter and I suspect will be pretty high up again for me in this year’s edition, even with a somewhat down year in Eugene.

Alexi Zemsky

Any insight on the onboarding process for our new draftees? I’m wondering specifically what the significance is of players like Bryce Eldridge and Jack Payton debuting quickly while Maui Ahuna and Walker Martin await their first at bats. Are there internal metrics that must be met before the carrot of competition is granted?

I wouldn’t say that there are metrics that need to be passed. As we’ve seen, the largest amount of the draft class has been playing, and most started about the same time. I think the Giants do like to get players in and orient them to the “Giants Way” and also get a sense of a player’s capabilities and strengths so that they can begin designing a development plan for them — but I don’t think they wait for all of that to get guys into games (there’s plenty of pitch grip work that happens after the games start, for sure).

Usually if guys aren’t playing in their draft year, there are physical reasons for it. Pitchers who threw a lot of innings or who have been shut down for so long that it’s deemed something of a health risk to try to get them heated up for competition are sometimes kept out of games until the following spring (Mason Black, for instance, never threw in his drafted summer).

I would suspect that is the case for Martin, who did play through an injury this spring. I wouldn’t be surprised if they just want to make sure he’s at his physical best before they put him into games to compete. And Ahuna has been placed on the 7-day IL, so there does seem to be some kind of physical issue there. In Ahuna’s case, however, I do wonder if the Giants might not have been eager to get him into games quickly regardless. His offensive performance really declined between his sophomore year at Kansas and his junior season at Tennessee. His OPS dropped by 150 points and his K rate climbed more than 10%. Giants’ Scouting Director Michael Holmes said in his post-draft presser that they felt Ahuna’s approach really got away from him at Tennessee. My speculation (and I certainly haven’t heard anyone say this) is that they probably wanted to get some work done on his swing and his swing decisions to make him a more productive player, and perhaps keeping him away from a competitive environment for awhile isn’t the worst thing in the world for that process.

For what it’s worth, Buster Posey played in 10 games his debut summer. Brandon Crawford got into five games and had 16 PA, and his fellow Brandon, Belt, didn’t make his debut until the spring following his draft.

Dan

By all accounts Wade Meckler has excellent speed, so why doesn't he steal more bases? He looks like the ideal leadoff man to me (think Brett Butler) if he can boost his sb's. Based on your observations in Richmond, are the Giants focused on helping him become a better base stealer?

Meckler is certainly very vast. He gets some of the highest sprint speeds underway that we see in the system. Although, as you say, that speed hasn’t really translated into success on the base paths where he has just eight successful attempts in 12 tries in his minor league career. It’s possible that Meckler is more one of those “fast under way” players rather than a quick first step type, which is essential in good base stealers. That said, certainly slower players than he is have better base stealing numbers — to take just a couple notable examples, we have Onil Perez and Diego Velasquez both stealing over 20 bases this year in San Jose!

As for focus, I wouldn’t say that’s a focus of the org, though they’ll certainly help players in whatever way they want to be helped. By and large, base stealing for players these days is little more than a math equation. The teams and players know the unload time of pitchers and pop times of catchers to the millisecond, and they know how long it takes a player to accelerate and reach the next bag. When those numbers align: it’s go time. But if they don’t: drop anchor.

I think the Giants are more concerned with Meckler continuing to reach base at a steady clip and refine his defense at all three OF positions than they are worried about his, so far, lackluster base stealing. After all, in the current incarnation of the braintrust, LaMonte Wade, Jr. is a pretty ideal leadoff man!

[EDITOR’S NOTE: I edited this answer after looking at some sprint speed data. An earlier version gave an inaccurate response with regards to Meckler’s pure speed.]

PGBreaker

Hayden Birdsong has an ERA of 10.80 in Richmond. Should we panic? [Totally being facetious. Just got through reading some comments on another blog and I get so tired of comments from people who apparently have no real grasp on how things work.] But maybe along that line, does each affiliate have a special hurdle newly called up players might need to deal with? Like for instance, Eugene with the faceplants of some of the Giants best and brightest over the past couple of years?

I don’t know if “special” is the word I’d summons, but there are certainly increased hurdles that come with moving up levels, and they come in a variety of forms. Players at the complex don’t have to deal with travel at all. They hop on a bus, fight with Phoenix traffic for drives that are probably never longer than an hour and often as short as 15 minutes, and return to Papago Park after the game is finished. How different is it when those same players head up to San Jose and deal with weeklong stays in a motel room, and once or twice a year travel 8-10 hours to deal with the southland teams (as San Jose just finished doing a week ago). And then to Eugene where pretty much every drive is at least six hours.

Or, here’s another one: both the California and NWL are small. Players in Eugene spend six long months facing the exact same five teams. For San Jose there is a tiny bit more variety, but in fact, most of their season is spent facing off with the three teams in their division, with occasional matchups with the southern division quartet. If some of those teams or organizations are lacking in talent (not talking about you Angels, but not not talking about you!), players can have entire weeks without facing off against a potential big-league arm. Then they move up to the Eastern League and get a much larger assortment of opponents, including some of the best pitching development orgs in baseball (Cleveland, Yankees, etc). On top of which, several players in Richmond have mentioned to me how much bigger the parks are in general in the EL. As Carter Aldrete put it earlier in the year: “here you hit into 380-foot outs.”

And there are many other issues as well — Eugene’s partial access to their facilities during certain parts of the year has been well discussed. But the biggest difference is the simplest one: the talent gets magnitudes better with each step up. Every time you move up a level, some portion of the bottom level of competition you were facing gets stripped away and replaced by better, older, more experienced players. I don’t know how to quantify that — is it the bottom 10%? 20%? — but it has a huge accumulating impact.

Hayden Birdsong has, in the course of this year, moved from a level full of teenagers really just trying to learn how to be pros who have no sense of plate discipline, few pitch recognition skills, and very little database of reps to lean on. He’s now in a league that includes players pushing 30 with literally thousands of professional at bats under their belts. Where he could really just stuff his way through low level lineups, and get away with mistakes or non-competitive pitches that batters inexplicably waved at, he now has to learn to pitch, read swings, think about the opponent’s strengths and weaknesses — all of the finer points of his profession.

A pitcher goes from a level where there are maybe two batters that can really hurt him to one where there are three or four, to one where there might be five or six. That has a huge accumulating impact. For hitters, they face guys who throw hard but with no idea where it’s going, and eventually reach a level where, hey, these guys can get me out with three(!) pitches, not just one — and, oh mercy, they actually know where they’re throwing them!

So yes, every place has its unique set of circumstances from weather to facilities to technology to just enjoying the people you’re working with and for. But the greatest impact to each increase in level is simply the rising tide of the quality and consistency of competition that players face.

Lyle

I’m having trouble keeping the Carsons straight. (tbh, I’m having the same trouble with the Carters, but that’s another story). Carson Whisenhunt I can keep up with pretty well - drafted last year, best pitch is a changeup, made it up to AA. What are his other pitches, what does he most need to work on to be successful in the big leagues, and where would you guess he is assigned next April?

As for Messrs. Seymour and Ragsdale, what are their best pitches, are they still seen as starters, what does each still need to work on most, and (again) where might they start next season?

Thanks in advance!

Yeah, the Carters are hard. Carsons not so tough! Only three, plus the lefty/righty split helps break it up further.

As you say, Whisenhunt is the lefty of the group, and the highest regarded at this point, after being selected in the 2nd round in 2022. Whisenhunt’s 70 grade plus-plus changeup is his calling card and knockout pitch, on top of which he throws a fastball and curve. The fastball is by far the better of those two pitches, but it’s not in the same class as his changeup, which he’s been throwing and perfecting since he was about 9 years old (and which is, in fact, not just one pitch, as he can manipulate into different shapes with his little fingers).

Whisenhunt’s fastball got up to 95-96 at times early in the season, though it was pretty consistently down in the 91-93 range in Richmond, prior to his going on the IL with a sprained elbow. Keeping the fastball up to that higher range and improving his command of the pitch are going to be really important to his future prospects. The better that pitch is, the more effective of a starter he is likely to be. The curve is currently more of a “show me” pitch that he doesn’t throw that often, and I know some scouts who opine that he just never may have a real feel for spin. He didn’t throw breaking balls of any kind prior to high school, which at one go explains his extreme confidence in his change and concurrent lack of confidence in the breaking ball.

As for his future assignment, I’d say it depends on the severity of his current elbow injury. If that is something that rest and winter rehab takes care of and he reports to spring strong and healthy, he is a certainty to be part of the Sacramento rotation and start pushing for a 2024 debut.

As for Seymour and Ragsdale, both are very tall, very hard throwing, two-pitch rightys. The biggest current distinction between the two of them is that one is healthy. Ragsdale missed virtually all of 2022 (he threw five innings in the complex) after undergoing thoracic outlet surgery. He then showed up looking great in spring training and was one of the best pitchers on the farm in April in Eugene, but he then suffered a physical setback of some nature that placed him back on the IL, which was a very sad and unfortunate part of the 2023 season. Ragsdale throws a mid-90s fastball with real life and a knee-buckling, very vertical curveball, both of which can miss bats. And this spring at least, he was an excellent strike thrower. Hopefully, we see Ragsdale healthy next year, but his recent past has been a terrible “what if he were healthy” story.

Seymour is similarly possessor of a four-seam fastball that can sit 94-96 with run, and a slider that is his favorite putaway pitch. (Oh, so slider vs curve is a big distinction between the two as well). Seymour was a Mets draft pick in 2021 before coming over in the Darin Ruf deal — and I would say he’s stepped forward this year as the most important of the prospects the Giants received in that deal. Seymour has a curve and change, but he’s used both extremely sparingly this year, which I think does lead to some natural questions regarding his future role. A powerful fastball/slider combo certainly does sound like a middle reliever, but his huge frame gives him an outstanding starter’s build, and he’s done well in a starter’s role this year. It would be good to see him diversify a little bit more beyond these two very effective pitches next year. I think he, too, could definitely push for a spot in Sacramento next year, though we’re starting to load that team up with starter candidates (including Black, Whisenhunt, Winn, and others).

Nick Yatsko

Thoughts on Diego Velasquez what is his ceiling, what's his defense like and how does he fit in among org shortstops? Thank you!

I’ve been beating the Velasquez Drum for awhile now, even back to his age-17 season when he basically did nothing but hit easy groundballs at infielders. The amount of ground ball outs I’ve accumulated while shooting video of Velasquez — in the ACL, in spring training, in the ACL again, in spring training again — is nothing short of stupendous.

But this year, the latent hitting ability has really shown itself. I think it’s important to say that I spoke with people in or near the Giants’ organization going into the season who openly wondered how he would handle this challenge, and suspected that full-season ball could kick him in the butt a little. He still does lack physicality, and the Giants would love to see him get really dedicated to weight training, but the swings are true works of art, and with them, he has built himself an incredibly successful first full season.

So, what is his ceiling? That’s a pretty good question. I feel pretty confident in saying that Velasquez is a big leaguer of some nature. He’s not a quick-twitch kid, but he has an extremely rhythmic ability to play the game and hit. He finds the ball with his barrel with incredible regularity, even though he’s not someone whose bat speed really jumps out at you.

But there are all sorts of physical questions about Velasquez. He’s skinny and not particularly strong as of yet (though he can really tie into balls occasionally). He’s also not particularly quick-footed, and I’ve talked with scouts who really like him who wonder about his ability to stay up the middle because of that. He has good instincts, good hands, and an accurate arm, but the range is probably going to be limited by his relative lack of footspeed and quickness. Which leaves some scouts wondering if he can grow into enough power to ever profile as a 3b. That seems a stretch to me, and I think the best case scenario is maybe an offensive minded 2b — maybe something like the really good version of Tommy La Stella (the one who hit a bunch of walk offs against the Giants in 2020, not the one who failed to do much of anything for the Giants thereafter). Maybe the more likely outcome is a utility player who can fill in around the diamond and hit all over, a lá Donovan Solano (before his shortstop abilities completely eroded).

Something in that sort of venue feels like a really good outcome for Velasquez, though if he ever really does grow into greater strength and power, then he might end up strong enough to lift that ceiling up a bit. The stats that I show for this year have a max Exit Velocity of 103 for Velasquez. If he can ever get that up to 109 or 110, then we might have a different player to contemplate. As it is, the success he’s shown as a teenager is certainly impressive enough to have high hopes for Velasquez.

Small Winged Yeti

Reggie Crawford hasn't batted in a super long time. Do you have any information on what the Giants' plans are on this?

Are we going to see Eldridge pitch at all this year?

He actually did the other day! Crawford got one PA as a DH on Thursday night, and then was pinch hit for when his turn came up in the order a second time. That was his first insertion into the lineup as a hitter since June 14.

The Giants’ plans — as they pretty clearly laid out last fall, are to develop Crawford as a pitcher and let him enjoy himself as a hitter around those plans when it makes sense. I’m going to guess that, ultimately, the same holds true for Eldridge in the opposite direction. He’s going to be developed as a hitter, and if it makes sense to get him some work in as a pitcher around that, they’ll do that, since Eldridge has made it clear that he wants a chance to do both. However, Eldridge is officially shut down for the year on the mound, so you’ll need to wait until March to see him throw.

Jason S

What has surprised you the most about the system this year?

I don’t think there can be any doubt that the two most surprising things about the Giants’ player development this year have been the rapid pace of early season promotions and the experiment with massively limiting pitcher innings. They’re both surprising in the most literal sense, as both have involved somewhat abrupt changes in organizational philosophy (and perhaps both can be traced to the hiring of Pete Putila, as they track with some of Houston’s behavior over the years).

Both are also going to be long-term development stories that we’ll simply have to see over time how they turn out. Neither can really be judged in the short term, and perhaps, neither can ever be fully assessed, since, as the late great Milan Kundera famously wrote, “living only one life, we can neither compare it with our previous lives nor perfect it in our lives to come.” We’ll never know whether more time at Triple A would have softened the rough edges of the transitions for Casey Schmitt or Luis Matos, or, on the other hand, if the advanced challenge ends up helping them in the end. We’ll never really know if the extra innings that have been taken away from starting pitchers would have provided more good in educating them or more harm in taxing their bodies.

At the end of the day, we’ll have some body of work to judge by. Either the team will enter into a period of sustained competitiveness much helped along by home-grown talent — in which case we’ll say that these strategies have proved worthwhile — or they won’t — in which case we’ll be left to wonder about roads not taken. But either way, we’re years away from really being able to make any informed statement at all, other than: “wow, that’s surprising! Have to keep our eyes on that one!”

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And, with that, let’s close up the mailbag for this week! The questions above regarding other outlets’ rankings reminded me that it’s getting pretty close to time to start thinking about my own, so I’ll just seed the clouds of your mind by suggesting that questions about various players’ Future Value, or depth chart of various positions in the org might be useful in getting the engines of my mental processes engaged.

I’ll see you (and your questions) again next week!