Getting Down to the Deadline Free For All Mailbag

Who will go? Who will come? And many other topics of discussion

One week from today is the 2023 trade deadline, and the Giants, who are hanging in there admirably given a long litany of injuries that are starting to suck some of the life from the roster, are in clear and loud “buy” mode. My guess is that the purchases will be modest and opportunistic, but there will still be costs to pay.

Surprisingly, there weren’t all that many questions today about the upcoming deadline. Maybe we’re all in Three Monkey mode regarding “our guys,” but trades bring new opportunities for players and show that they are wanted and valued. Sometimes, it’s a great new fit.

Anyway, it will interesting to see how the next seven days play out…

And with that, it’s time to open up the Free for All Mailbag and see what’s inside for this week…or what stubbornly stuck to the bottom last week!

Scott C.

Hi Roger. You listed this one last week but didn't answer the question—I'd love to hear your analysis:

I enjoyed all the midseason and draft coverage, Roger. I was eagerly awaiting that content amidst the slog of the regular season. The extended pod banter with Delucchi was especially good. One related question. How do you view the farm system’s strengths and weaknesses at this juncture?

Not only did I list this question in last week’s mailbag, but my editor pointed out that I hadn’t answered it and I STILL didn’t manage to get it answered. Sigh. Sometimes, you just don’t see what you’re looking at.

Ok, here goes: Let’s start with the weaknesses, because one thing I really loved about this draft was that it addressed the two most serious weaknesses that I identified last winter after completing my Depth Chart series: left-handed power hitting and left-handed pitchers. The Giants really went all-in on both categories, even bringing us an All Lefty Day One of the draft. And they kept that up over the rest of the draft, too, grabbing a plethora of left-handed arms and several more bats, including a left-handed hitting catcher (which we know they love)! Of course, it remains to be seen what sort of quality they nabbed with their Day Three picks, but we’ve seen them do really well on these sort of “deep cut” scouting discoveries.

Are there still weaknesses though? Well, sure, every club is going to be thin somewhere — I mean, we can’t all be the Orioles now, can we? Right now, I’d say the big one (and this is something like calling the sky blue when it comes to farm systems) is the lack of potential star players. Really, it’s hard to project very many even above average starting types in the system. There are a lot of potential mix and match guys, plenty of up the middle talent with likely UT type outcomes, back end starters or bulk innings guys. But honest to goodness “this guy’s gonna give us 2-4 WAR every year for half a decade?” That list runs short very quickly. If you want to dream on a 4-6 WAR type? Maybe Luciano and Harrison and perhaps Arias and you’re done for the night? It would be nice to have a little more upside than that. (Of course, our two high school kids may change our perspective on that over the next year).

As for strengths, well, I do think one of the sneaky strengths of the Giants’ farm system is catching — maybe not even that sneaky! Patrick Bailey is almost certainly going to get some Rookie of the Year votes (he will not be winning that award while Corbin Carroll is in the league, so don’t get too excited!), while Joey Bart and Ricardo Genovés are solid Triple A depth players. Beyond that you have Adrian Sugastey, Onil Perez, and Juan Perez, all of whom have conceivable big league futures of some nature. Adding Luke Shliger and Jack Payton (if he signs, see below) to that group gives this org some serious catching depth!

It’s also becoming more and more of a pitching farm. We’ve seen a lot of arms really improve their game and their fortunes relatively quickly in the last couple of years. That goes for high draft picks and top prospects like Kyle Harrison, Carson Whisenhunt, and Mason Black, to guys who come from a little further afield, like Landen Roupp, Hayden Birdsong, Liam Simon, or Cole Waites. This is proving to be an organization with a pretty solid pitching infrastructure (as Farhan likes to say), and I suspect we’ll see some solid jumps from some of this year’s draft class in the near future as well. I can’t wait to see what Joe Whitman adds to the farm. And I still don’t think we’ve seen the best of the 2022 class of arms, to be honest. Once the team gets Reggie Crawford stretched out, and Simon and Spencer Miles returned to health, that could be a pitching bonanza.

Jordan

Have you heard anything re: Maui Ahuna or Jack Payton signing? I have not done the math, but it does not appear that there is anything left to go over slot for either.

Andy

What have you heard about Ahuna and Payton signing? Seems like they should have had a pre-set agreed range with both, no?

It does appear that one or the other of those two (or perhaps both) is hanging up both situations. The Giants rolled out a suite of announcements for almost the entire draft class last Monday — and those fans who follow players on social media might even have noticed that Ahuna posted his plans to fly out to the west coast that weekend as well. Something happened between there and here, however, as his deal has yet to get done, and Payton’s is tied up in it as well. Whether the issue is Payton’s side wanting much more than the $150,000 mark generally tied to all picks after the 10th round (anything over that figure gets counted against the bonus pool, but up to 150k does not), or Ahuna wanting something significantly over-slot isn’t known, but bonus pool math ties their fates together at this point. Both players looked like significant value where they were drafted, so one can imagine they might want something above slot value, but Andy is right that normally there is mutual agreement on a general number before a pick is announced.

Teams are allowed to go up to 5% over their bonus pool (technically they are not allowed to hit the 5% mark, but can get as close to it as possible) while only incurring a small tax as penalty. The Giants are one of a couple of MLB teams that have used every last penny since that system was put in place. No team has ever hit that 5% threshold however, and incurred the loss of future draft picks. I believe we can assume the Giants will not become the first to do so, but as usual, they plan on spending every last dime up to that precipice.

Right now, counting the 5% overage, the Giants have $590k left of their bonus pool to spend. The slot value for Ahuna's pick is $569,100, so there actually is another twenty grand above slot that can be split between Ahuna and/or Payton or given to one or other player.

I'm not sure who wants the larger piece of the pie here — you could imagine a scenario where Payton is looking for, say $250,000 in bonus, which would mean $100,000 less for Ahuna, or perhaps Ahuna wants his slot plus all of the $20k extra. Whatever the actual case may be, the math is the math, and certainly both players (and their advisors) know exactly what is left.

Hypothetically, Ahuna does have slightly more leverage than Payton since, if the Giants failed to sign him they would lose the slot value of his pick from their bonus pool — which would also change the equation on the 5% overage (since it would change the number that the 5% is based off of). That would put their total, drop dead, non-exceedable spending number at $9.815m. Currently the team has spent just $9.811m by my calculation, so even if they did lose Ahuna they wouldn't be in a position of suddenly and accidentally losing a future draft pick (they know how to cook the numbers VERY well). In the unlikely event that the team failed to reach an agreement with Ahuna, they could still sign Payton for that $150,000 (with maybe an extra three grand worth of cherry to top it off with). I would imagine they'll get both deals done. The players' advisors know how to count, too, and I doubt they’ll want to overplay their hand to the point of losing everything. Neither player is going to increase their leverage by going back to college and coming out next year as a senior sign. But it’s all coming to a head today. The signing deadline comes this afternoon at 5 pm, Eastern Time, so someone’s going to need to blink, soon.

For those of you who listened to my podcast with Jim Callis last week, he raised the awesome “Brandon Crawford” comp for Ahuna, which should whet all of our appetites!

Otis Anderson

Assuming they need middle infielder help over the next two weeks, how would you rate the probabilities of Fitzgerald, Diaz, or Luciano being called up for playing time?

With the trade deadline sitting one week away, I would imagine that the team will continue to give opportunities to the current group — Casey Schmitt, Brett Wisely, and David Villar — until they see if they can bring in reinforcements from elsewhere (and maybe the sooner, the better at this point). The need is so acute that it certainly seems probable they do try to acquire help at the deadline.

However, if they fail in that endeavor, I can see them starting to look deeper in the system. Marco Luciano and Isan Diaz are both members of the 40-man roster already, so they would both be more likely than Fitzgerald, I would think. There are going to be more stresses on the 40-man roster in the second half, and there aren’t many soft spots on it right now (with Diaz himself perhaps being the most obvious), though of course, Mauricio Llovera’s DFA did temporarily create one opening. Still, that, combined with a solid, but not necessarily overwhelming performance at Triple A would seem to limit Tyler Fitzgerald’s chances.

The most interesting of the choices is, of course, Luciano. The Giants have responded to needs this year by advancing their top prospects even in the face of lackluster performances at Triple A (neither Schmitt nor Patrick Bailey was posting a wRC+ of 100 at the time of their call-ups), so it might not be necessary for Luciano to impress mightily to get a look if the situation continues for long as it currently is. That said, Luciano does have some history of a slight adjustment period at levels, and it might not be a bad idea to let him get up to speed at Triple A before taking a look at him in MLB, especially with both Thairo Estrada and Brandon Crawford expected back in the not-too-distant future. But I do think there’s a real chance that Luciano could end up playing a role in the stretch run of this season. He offers something they really need (big right-handed power) at a place on the diamond where they really need to improve.

Still, unless further injuries press the point, I don’t really expect things to happen prior to the trade deadline at this point.

Duncan T

Hi Roger. You beat me to the punch a little with your Hjelle discussion in [last week’s] write up! Interested in your thoughts on what his likely future is. Do you think other teams might see him as worth trading for (even if it's for low grade assets), or is he potentially more of a throw in if the Giants trade for something else? I don't see him as justifying a 40-man spot as any shape of pitcher (starter, reliever, piggybacker, opener, whatever) going forward but am wondering if there might be some outcome other than DFA.

There are scouts who have always liked Hjelle somewhat. In this day of “funky looks,” he certainly offers one of the funkiest. That’s something that the Giants really prize, so I’d be surprised to see them bail out on the Hjelle Man without some real return. That said, his performance, at both the major and minor league levels the last couple of years, has hardly been such as to goose up his value. The Giants haven’t really seemed to settle on a role for Hjelle that they feel good about, and he certainly hasn’t taken advantage of the opportunities he’s gotten at the highest level. While he’s done a better job of striking batters out in the majors (helped in part, no doubt, by shorter stints), he’s also walked hitters at a frightening pace for someone with such a pitch to contact profile.

I’m really not sure what to make of his status at this point. He sits in something like the same barrel as his fellow “previous regime” high picks Bart and Ramos, which we might call the “is there still some shine on this apple?” barrel. As ever, don’t expect the Giants to just give away value in a deal. If they’re not getting back something they feel good about, they’ll keep working with the player and trying to get that latent ability to come out more effectively.

Lyle

What would be your guess about how the organization onboards the HS draftees? Do you expect them to ultimately get some playing time in on one of the ACL teams this season? And if so, do you think they would purposefully assign them to the same team in hopes of building camaraderie?

I am certain we will see both of the top two picks (as well as most of the rest of the draft) see time in the ACL over the final month of the season, which runs until August 22. With some very few exceptions of pitchers whom the Giants, for one reason or another, thought would be best served by staying off the field, they have consistently gotten all of their drafted players into action before the summer was through in the last couple of years.

Looking at position players in particular, we’ve seen most of the debuts come about a week into August (August 8 and 9 seem like a particular locus of debut action), so that seems like a good part of the calendar to circle. In each of the past two seasons, we’ve even seen the Giants push players up to San Jose for the final weeks of the Cal League, and I wouldn’t be shocked to see them do that with Bryce Eldridge and Walker Martin this year as well. That would give them both a good deal more time to see some action, as San Jose’s season continues into mid-September, with the Cal League playoffs not opening until September 12. To be honest, I think I’d be a little surprised if Eldridge and Martin weren’t part of that playoff roster.

Prior to any potential move to San Jose, however, I’d look for the pair to be matched up on the ACL Giants Black roster. The org has pretty consistently stacked the best hitting talent in their Scottsdale complex on the Black over the last couple of years (they seem to do much the same in the Dominican), so that’s where I’d keep my eye on the lookout for debuts.

rb

Fastball shape has become an important part of evaluating pitchers. Have there been any examples of pitchers really changing their fastball’s shape? Getting more rise on it by changing their grip to impart more back spin, things like that?

So, I take it that you are thinking of “fastball shape” in a very specific way (the answer is still ‘yes’), but before I answer, I should say that basically all pitch design work ever is is an attempt to move the ball around in pitcher’s hands by trial and error until you get a ball that moves the way you want it to, and there’s a degree to which “everybody” is the answer here.

In the strict sense that you’re asking (guys who got more lift or rise or carry on a ball), Spencer Strider is probably the poster child for this (though Cole Waites is a pretty great example as well in our little corner of the world). And, if you don’t limit the notion of “fastball shape” to simply getting more rise on a four seam, then I should note that Logan Webb is an equally great success story of designing fastball shape. In Webb’s case, that shape is not four-seam lift but rather two-seam sink created by seam-shifted wake — but it’s still a phenomenal pitch design success story. Remember, Webb was a four-seam fastball guy coming up! Camilo Doval, who spent about two years perfecting that extraordinary two-seamer to go with the four-seamer he’d always thrown, is another great Giants-specific example.

I’m going to do my best not to get too deep into the weeds with this one — which should be easy, since my knowledge isn’t “tall weeds” deep — but here’s my basic understanding of the pitch design process as it’s been explained to me. On a really general level, guys sort of throw how they throw, and what you want to do is get the ball to react to that natural throwing motion in the most outlierish way possible. That’s not to say that it’s impossible to change fundamental aspects (arm slot for instance), but it is a lot harder to do — and simply going with a pitcher’s native strengths is proving to be a more effective path.

There are basic cues that the industry has developed as starting points in looking at the natural throwing motion (or “bias” you’ll hear it referred to), the biggest of which is the angle of the wrist at release point (suppination, pronation, or flat/straight). If a pitcher has a flat wrist at release (palm directly facing catcher, fingers straight behind the ball) they’re a good candidate for trying to get four-seam lift, but they also tend to have issues getting much horizontal movement on their pitches (the old scouting bromide, “if you can spin it, you can spin it” more or less turns out to be true). Suppinators (like Webb) naturally create glove side movement; pronators naturally get more arm side movement.

Bucketing pitchers like this gives the process some starting points for best likely outcomes (suppinators are better candidates for seam-shifted wake, flat-wrist guys can lead to better lift on a fastball, especially if they also have a flat vertical approach angle). From that point, it’s really a trial and error process of moving the ball around in a pitcher’s hand and then seeing what it does, writing it down, and going again. To help with this process, basically all teams (plus private labs like Driveline) take pictures of every pitcher’s grips, a big “grip” database. That way, when a new kid comes along, you can compare his grip to previous pitchers who have had successful design processes before (this guy’s hand/wrist/grip sort of looks like that other guy, who got a good result by putting x finger on the seam like so and adding some pressure at y with the index finger), thus cutting down on some of the trial and error.

But that’s really what most pitch design is: slightly change where/how you’re gripping the ball, throw it, see what happens, document the pitcher’s cue (how he remembers the grip), write it all down, go on to the next attempt. The grips that create the biggest, or strangest, or outlierish forms of movement are the winners.

Trust me, when you see movement shapes like this — you can feel certain that it came out of a pitch design process:

Nick Yatsko

Enjoy the mail bags! Seems like Sac has a crowd of infielders, Thoughts on how Will Wilson fits at this point? thanks!

Even with the addition of Luciano to the River Cats’ roster, Wilson continues to get plenty of playing time. He appeared in all six of the games against the Rainiers last week, starting five of them, and has played in eight of the nine games post-All Star break. I think the Giants still prioritize his development and have generally dealt with the crowding by releasing the “depth” guys on the roster — Colton Welker, for instance, who was a recent roster casualty.

So the issue for Wilson hasn’t been getting playing time opportunities (there’s a reason why he leads the team in home runs and RBI), it’s been producing with the opportunities he’s given. Though Wilson continues to show an enviable amount of power (especially for a player who projects to see time as utility infielder in what is probably a best case outcome at this point), he’s hitting just .227 so far this year. That’s unfortunately more trend than outlier at this point. Over his four seasons in the minors, Wilson’s career batting average is just .238, and it has really never strayed too meaningfully from that region. His best ever average was the .275 line he put up in rookie ball in his draft year — but even that, as a 1st round pick with strong pedigree in a fairly low level of competition, left scouts feeling a little lackluster about his hit tool. That dropped to .251 in High A and just .207 over parts of two seasons with Richmond.

Even with 12 home runs, Wilson’s .227/.304/.394 line produces a wRC+ number of just 64 in the PCL this year. That’s not likely to get him added to the 40-man this winter or do much to entice other clubs to snag him in the Rule 5 draft in his second go round of being available in that draft — certainly a disappointing outcome so far for 15th overall selection in the 2019 draft, and a player whom the Giants essentially spent some $13m to acquire. I suspect they’ll keep giving him chances to improve however. You don’t often see right-handed power like he has in a middle infielder.

jazz_case

As someone not familiar with the Eugene Emeralds aside from watching the occasional game and following their social media, can you provide some info about their battle for a new baseball field? I'm aware of the ups and (mostly) downs of sharing a field with UO from reading this amazing Substack, but recently the team’s social media team has been asking for support about keeping the team in Eugene. Is there a chance the Emeralds could be moved? Might the Giants lose their affiliate? Any info is appreciated.

I feel like the process is progressing reasonably well, though I will tell you that I’ve sat through several hundred hours of development planning public meetings in my life (a consequence of my former, other life), and I can tell you that no process is done until it is DONE.

The redoubtable Allan Benevides, GM of the Eugene front office mentioned to the Chronicle’s John Shea recently that they haven’t fully put together the funding package for their planned development project, but I texted Allan this weekend and he told me the plan is “on track.” There are still some county and city public processes to go through, however, so it’s not a done deal as of yet. Benevides has his team working hard to keep community support strong in both material and sentimental forms, so hopefully things will sort themselves out before too much longer. These types of processes don’t work their way through the pipeline expediently however (unless you’re the A’s in Las Vegas, for some peculiar reason).

As for your subsequent questions, that’s a conversation that I’ve had with many minor league folks over the past couple of years, and nobody really knows the answer to it. MLB has delivered letters to many, many minor league teams since 2021, notifying them that their facilities are not up to standard and giving them a date by which a new stadium must be provided “or else….” But what exactly MLB has in mind for that “or else” is something of a mystery. It really doesn’t seem likely that there are oodles of small towns dotting America who could suddenly roll out a state of the art minor league facility to poach all of these woebetide clubs. So would MLB let the affiliates simply vanish? And what would be the repercussions of that. A six-team league is already bare bones as is — certainly having one of those teams vanish would make the continued operation untenable for the remaining five teams, wouldn’t it? And would MLB be willing to strip some clubs of a quarter of their full-season affiliate system? That doesn’t seem likely.

Back in the day, it was common for major league teams to share a single affiliate, with two or more clubs contributing players to one minor league roster, but given the arms race that modern player development has turned into — given the investment in technology and data modeling, and frankly the pure secrecy with which most clubs approach their player development techniques — it’s very hard to imagine teams agreeing to such a situation today.

Perhaps two clubs could share a facility? Honestly, until we see one of these situations come to a head, I don’t think anybody has any idea what MLB’s end game is. For now, we can assume saber rattling to help loosen pocketbooks, but it’s really anybody’s guess how some of these situations will turn out. Anyway, the hope is that this discussion is purely academic when it comes to the Emeralds’ future facility. (By the way, Richmond is also under a deadline to improve their facilities, but an approved plan is now in motion in the city which currently has an Opening Day, 2026 timeline).

Shooter_Beck

Law is saying that Harrison's hamstring issue is season ending, what say you (and if covered already, apologies)

Just to clarify, Keith Law wrote in a recent post at The Athletic that the injury is “a Grade 2 hamstring strain, a partial tear that will probably keep him out several more weeks and could end his regular season.” I don’t play a doctor, either on TV or on my Substack, but my understanding is that muscle strains are, by definition, always some degree of a tear, with that degree dependent on the Grade — but “tear” sounds much worse than strain, and tends to get readers excited!

What I think is most important to say about that, without throwing any particular aspersions at Law’s journalistic abilities or his sources, is that the Giants have very particularly resisted inquiries into what Grade of injury this is. I know several of the regular beat writers who have been rebuffed in their efforts to gain that specific information — and I’m absolutely certain that Keith Law is not getting his information from an internal source.

Without getting too far over my skis, I will say that from what I’ve heard, I don’t believe Law’s characterization is accurate. Reliable sources lead me to believe that Harrison has already started the process of working his way back, and I don’t think you’ll have to wait that long before you see his name in a box score again. I don’t know that the Giants are necessarily in any great hurry to get him back to Sacramento — they might be eyeing a longer game than that and considering that a mid-season blow could be somewhat beneficial — but I wouldn’t be overly alarmed at this point about the possibility of Harrison missing the rest of the year.

Ryan

Apologies if you’ve already covered this: What players will the Giants need to make a decision adding to the 40 man or leaving open to the Rule 5 draft this year? With the trade deadline coming up, I would think some of these players may be more likely to be a part of a trade at the deadline similar to how Alexander Canario was a part of the Kris Bryant trade. 

Jason S

Drawing parallels to the Rays and their ability to push back 40 man decisions by trading close to majors talent for lower level talent. Do you think the Giants are getting deep enough as an organization to use a similar strategy, and if so, who are some players that you think could be sought after at the end of the season by other organizations?

Starting with Jason, I don’t think the Giants are quite there yet, to be honest. While I do think there are players who could be somewhat interesting to other teams in the Rule 5 draft (lower profile relievers, like Nick Avila and Ben Madison, for instance, or perhaps Tyler Fitzgerald, if they choose not to protect him), I really don’t think they’ve arrived at the level of squads like Tampa or the Dodgers or Guardians where there are obvious players who will be lost if not protected or traded on an annual basis (in fact, I think they made a surprising and unnecessary move last year in protecting Jose Cruz). That’s especially true on the position player side. One reason why Tampa is ALWAYS making these sorts of “kick the can down the road” deals is their amazing depth of middle infield players who are legitimate big leaguers.

For instance, I think we’ve seen enough of Brett Wisely to characterize him as a quality up and down middle infield option — but the Rays’ extraordinary glut of infield options on their 40-man made him an obvious outside looking in at the 40-man gates (that 40-man depth in Tampa includes Wander Franco, Brandon Lowe, Isaac Paredes, Vidal Brujan, Taylor Walls, Curtis Mead, Jonathan Aranda, Greg Jones and Osleivis Basabe — part of the Matos’ family, I believe — with more to come, including Junior Caminero who was in fact, acquired in one of these very minor 40-man maintenance deals!). Just to continue the comparison, the Giants have ended up leaning hard on Wisely to fill in in the middle infield, moved Casey Schmitt to shortstop (I’d say the jury is still out on that experiment), and still have Isan Diaz taking a spot on the 40-man, despite a lot of not great time in the majors. Coming this winter, Fitzgerald and Aeverson Arteaga will make legitimate claims for a 40-man spot, but I don’t see any other infielders who put up a very strong argument in the system (see the previous comments on Wilson).

So, to Ryan’s question: I’ll do a full series trying to capture all of the interesting candidates that I see (and hopefully make up for my shameful failure to have a post on Keaton Winn last year — in truth, he was scheduled to be part of my series last winter, but the deadline was earlier than I anticipated it being and my completely nonsequitur order of posts ended up cutting him off, to my absolute mortification when he ended up being a selection).

The major “high profile” prospects who will come up for protection this winter will be the two guys at Eugene: Grant McCray and Arteaga. But, as we saw in each of the last couple of years, the high profile guys aren’t the end of the story — and players who have not been protected in previous years (like Winn and Tristan Beck), could well be at that point with another year’s experience. From the 2020 college class that will be coming under consideration, the Giants jumped the decision-making process by adding both Schmitt and Patrick Bailey this year, though I suppose they’ll have to think about whether Nick Swiney or R.J. Dabovich need protecting at this point (“probably not” and “can’t imagine” would be my guesses there).

As for players who have come up previously, I’ve mentioned a few times lately that I think Ben Madison could put himself into that Nick Avila range (and Avila, himself, of course, is already in it!), and Victor Bericoto has done a nice job of making himself interesting this year, though I suspect he’ll fall short of needing protecting.

Small Winged Yeti

Who are some of the players in the farm that have the biggest gap in terms of their valuation by the Giants vs people outside? For example, the Giants were pretty high on Patrick Bailey before this season but most other pundits rated him much lower. Wondering if there will be players who will surprise. I suppose if there is reverse situation (Giants privately rate them lower than the public) they might want to keep it close to their chest in case they want to use them as trade chips. Thank you!

That’s a great question. Bailey is an excellent example of a player the Giants maintained their high belief in while the industry wanted in enthusiasm, and he’s not the only recent player who I would put in this category. Farm Director Kyle Haines spent a couple of years wondering out loud why Logan Webb never seemed to show up on Top 100 lists, and in that case, too, the Giants proved much more right than the industry at large. A year ago I probably would have answered this question by saying “Schmitt,” though, at least through the 2023 season I think other clubs (who questioned his offensive potential) might have been more right and wrong — there is more work to do there, clearly.

Obviously, there are tons of low level sleeper types I could dredge up as an answer here — potential bullpen or utility fits etc. It’s an important part of being a Player Development official to truly believe in the big league potential of every single player under your care. But in the spirit that I believe the question was asked, I’ll give you two names. Like Bailey, the overall industry has tended to down-arrow Luciano this year. I’ve been vocal in my belief that his big strike out numbers haven’t necessarily been the result of swing issues as much as a changing approach, and I’ve been liking his shortstop play more and more as his body has gotten into the rhythm of daily play and feeling good. I suspect the Giants side with me, and see as much potential there as ever, even while the player slides down industry Top 100 lists.

The second player I’d mention is Arteaga, whom Kyle Haines has frequently said to me he believes is one of the very best shortstop prospects in the game. Clearly, the rest of the industry doesn’t feel that way because Top 100 lists are littered with, and dominated by, elite shortstop prospects. If the Giants end up being more right than the outside observers on Arty, then maybe they’ll end up with the shortstop version of Webbie ‘ere long.

Barry Parkin

I know we are supposed to be asking minor league questions here but Blake Sabol looks like a hell of a hitter. Do you see any way for Joey Bart to return to the big league club? With his defense, Bailey is going to be the primary catcher for the next ten years no matter how he hits, and Sabol is going to be on the roster with his bat and versatility. Oh and for the record, I don't want Ohtani if it costs us all our top pitching prospects and that is SO what the Angels need.

I’ll be honest: I really don’t know what to make of Sabol as of yet. There’s obviously some legitimate power there, but beyond that, it’s still unclear to me what kind of big league future awaits him. According to Baseball Savant, Sabol has hit .182 this year against sliders and curveballs with a 46% K rate. And, judging by the way the Nats were attacking him this weekend, I don’t believe that number is a closely held secret around the league. He’s been a slightly above average hitter for the year, but a lot of that is buoyed by a big April — over the last two months he’s put up an 84 wRC+. And while you could say that’s certainly fine for a backup catcher (especially one with versatility), Sabol isn’t really like any other backup catcher — they’re fitting him in at positions he doesn’t play all that well so that they can get his bat into the lineup, not living with the bat because the glove is an asset in a backup.

In the end, he’s a Rule 5 pick who has hit 11 HR while providing needed versatility — which is basically found gold. And, like all the other rookies on the team, first year struggles don’t define what type of player he is ultimately going to become. There have been flashes of real promise and potential avenues for growth. But he definitely needs to figure out how to fight back against the wave of breaking balls he’s been faced with lately if he’s going to continue pushing in the right direction.

But, re-reading your question, I see it was actually about Joey Bart! How about that. Can I see any way for him to return to the major league team? Yes: catchers get hurt a lot. A LOT.

As for your final comment, without getting into any specific internet trade proposals (which I hate and am bad at), I do want to state two profoundly held beliefs that I hold dear:

1. Today matters. It’s the only day that actually exists and should be valued accordingly. A thousand things have had to go right to put the Giants in their current position in 2023. Of the thousand things that will have to go right to put them in a similar position in 2025 or 2026, not a single one of them has gone right yet — and might never! So, yes, long term strategy is part of any healthy organization, but even more so is current strategy. Because today matters! It’s what we have and we should live fully present in it. Remember Gabe Kapler’s mantra: win every moment.

2. No farm system is every “gutted,” “stripped,” or “given away” by a trade. Trades are a crucial use of healthy farm systems and always will be. The Dodgers have no reason to ever think twice about moving Oneil Cruz or Yordan Alvarez or Josiah Gray or Alex Verdugo or so many more. Virtually every roster in MLB is seeded with former Yankees’ prospects. And that’s ok! Both of those clubs can look back on literal decades of post-season play and reflect with satisfaction that their development systems helped them obtain needed parts over and over again. And, yes, teams certainly try to get their internal evaluations correct and not give away too much value (or worse, value they didn’t realize was there), but for the most part, building up trade value is one of the crucial values of player development.
   
   No one trade — or multiple trades — stops that process. If a single trade deadline can gut or strip a team’s farm, then it’s because that team has fundamental issues in its PD or Amateur scouting processes. But an organization that feels good about those processes (as the Giants should), should never fear to put prospect capital to use in acquiring major leaguers who can help them win now. It is a self-replenishing good!

MikeH

With the returning players like Gonzalez adding to the roster crunch are the likes of Jose Cruz and Randy Rodriguez's places on the 40-man in jeopardy? Both seem to be taking up valuable slots without being close to the big league or being 'top prospects'

If you’re asking if those two are DFA candidates, I’d be pretty surprised by that. Both players are admired within the scouting community and offer real future value. But they do seem two very obvious choices to be included in trades of varying impact over the next 10 days. From that perspective, it might be nice if the pair would turn in some better performances in the coming week. Cruz has walked 14 batters over his last eight games (and coughed up two 9th inning homers to blow a Save on Saturday night). Rodriguez is sporting a 10.50 ERA in Triple A, where he’s allowed runs in seven of his nine appearances. Show those arms off, guys!

Totalfan62

Our SF Giants approach the trade deadline looking to address their essential needs (starting pitching, middle infield, maybe bullpen). We will apparently need to trade some highly rated prospects in order to get what we need. Names in play (per media reports): Harrison, Luciano, Whisenhunt, Black, possibly Vaun Brown, Grant McCray, and maybe some of the 2022-2023 highly regarded draftees. Of these players, who do you think should definitely not be traded, and where are we deepest and most able to absorb the loss of some highly regarded prospects?

There we go. I knew we couldn’t be totally bereft of trade deadline questions! I will say that I’m a little doubtful that the Giants will be in the kind of trade discussions that would center around a Harrison or Luciano type (I’ve never much believed that Ohtani was going to be moved and don’t see any other big fish out there really).

For smaller deals that could provide real upgrades, as I suggested above, I think that pitching is a current strength of the club. In particular, I think there are a lot of interesting starting pitcher prospects who project as sort of 3rd/4th starters if things come together right. That starts right at the top with near-major leaguers Beck and Winn, but I’d also include Carson Whisenhunt, Mason Black, and Landen Roupp in that category — and for teams who are still high on Eric Silva, he could fit there, too. Behind that group, Carson Seymour, Hayden Birdsong, Manuel Mercedes, and Gerelmi Maldonado all fit in that “arm strength, but will they/won’t they starter/reliever profile” mix.

That’s a pretty good reservoir of depth for starters-who-probably-don’t-project-to-be-top-starter types. That’s probably a bucket the Giants should feel pretty good about dipping into, given the strength they’ve shown at developing exactly those kind of arms lately. I think back to the Kris Bryant deal in 2021, and one thing that really strikes me about that deal was their canny decision to strike while the iron was hot with Caleb Kilian. They almost certainly timed their use of Kilian as a trade piece perfectly to get the most value he was likely ever going to have. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them do that again with some of the pop up arms of the last two drafts.

Scott C.

It's time to come clean, Roger. I remember one of your podcast guests busting you for wearing Nationals gear. So, with the Giants-Nats in your region over the weekend, which cap have you been wearing proudly in public? We need to know how serious this Nationals interest is.

Let’s just cut the pernicious implication of this question off at the knees right here and now. I fly my Giants colors proudly at all times!

And with that, we’ll close up the mailbag for this week. Enjoy the games everybody!