Giants Depth Chart: LHP
Continuing our position by position journey through the system
Today I’m continuing my look at the Giants depth of prospect talent position by position, going from what I think are the weakest positions to the strongest. So far I’ve looked at the 1b position, and then stole my way over to the 2b position. Now it’s time to head to the mound.
This is the one that has the potential to make me look real stupid-like in the not too distant future — I mean, that danger is omnipresent throughout this exercise, of course, but this is really the one to do it.
All that needs to happen for me to secretly wish to hide this post in the back of the internet’s guest bathroom vanity, behind the virtual shoe polish and underneath the leather cleaner is for Seth Corry to blow up. Go ka-blooey. Shoot the moon.
And you know what? He could do it. He really could.
(by the way, I’m sorry that Twitter videos won’t play inside the post…I’d really like that functionality too)
But still, this feels like the right place in our journey for Virgil (not Ozzie) to bring us to the room of the left-handed pitchers because, for the most part, Corry’s the only guy in there. It may be a very tiny closet or a very large cavern but whatever size, Seth is throwing balls against the back wall and bouncing them back to himself.
I mean, no, of course, not literally — Conner Menez is in this completely non-metaphorical purgatory room as well (and we’ll get to him!), Luis Amaya’s probably hanging around in a dark corner somewhere and a there’s a gang of teenagers with hopes of glory acting big and trying to make enough noise so as to attract attention. But really, this room belongs to just one young man. One very intriguing young man. So let’s step inside and talk about Mr. Corry…
Top Tier
Seth Corry, 21 yrs old, 1.76 ERA, 172 Ks to 58 BBs in 122.2 IP
Should we start with the stats? I kinda think we should start with the stats. Yeah, let’s start with the stats because the stats were freaking uh-MAZ-ing! Video game, cartoon rabbit, once in a lifetime kind of amazing. You build wings in your house to hang framed copies of this kind of stat line.
An embarrassment of riches wherever you look. What do you prefer? The fact that he had an 0.80 WHIP over the second half the year or the fact that he went a literal month — from July 18 to August 16 — without allowing a run. Heck he surrendered just 7 HITS over that stretch. Take it back further: in 11 starts from the 1st of July through the end of August he allowed a grand total of 5 runs over 60 innings. And, oh yeah, he struck out 82 batters over that stretch while walking just 15. He finished the season with the second lowest ERA and second most strikeouts of any pitcher in the minors.
In the process he broke Madison Bumgarner’s all time Augusta record for strikeouts (in the regular season! and I mean that literally because Bum pitched twice in the Sally playoffs so he actually — but not technically — had more) and compared quite favorably to Bumgarner’s 1.46 ERA with the Greenjackets.
So then the question becomes: should we be all hubba hubba Seth gonna Bum the 20s like Madison Bum’ed the Teens? Or better put: what aren’t the stats telling us? Corry made great strides at limiting his walks in the second half of the year and at the same time he showed tremendous progress with his changeup, giving him a strong third pitch to match with his fastball/curve combination. But he still ran up large pitch counts and frequently worked his way into long At Bats and full counts because the refinement on his mechanics, while improving, still has a ways to go. Fangraphs had a great article this winter describing Corry’s relationship with pitching coach Clay Rapada which is revealing of a lot of the things that the Giants love about Corry as well as some of the things they still want to see from him. His pitches can still sometimes control him rather than he controlling them. And, from my admittedly anecdotal views of his starts, he piled up a lot of backwards Ks against Sally hitters who simply gave up on his big breaking ball, in a way that advanced hitters aren’t going to do. Ultimately, I suspect the reason the Giants never moved Corry from Augusta despite his incredible statistical dominance is that they had things they still wanted him to work on at that level of competition.
So when you read prognosticators (like Fangraphs) who maintain a healthy “reliever risk” skepticism about Corry, you get it — there’s a long path to tread here. But Corry’s also a two-sport kid from a cold weather state which is a pretty good starter kit for “late bloomer.” And while the stat line may have hidden some development needs, one thing I believe it’s giving a true impression of is how well he competed last year. He may have found himself in a lot of 3-2 counts in the second half of the season, but by and large he won them, which showed a real improvement in his ability to retain focus pitch to pitch and not get frustrated or mentally tired on the mound — things Corry, by his own admission, had issues with in his first two summers. And the maturation of his changeup was a big step towards building a starter’s repertoire. There may still be many rivers to cross before we can legitimately sing praises about Corry as that most fabled of all beings, a front of the rotation guy. But there just aren’t a lot of guys in this system that you can even start humming that tune for — much less starting to write lyrics — so we should all be hoping that he keeps building on the progress he showed in 2019.
Major League Depth Pieces
Conner Menez, 24 yrs old, 3.79 ERA 154 Ks to 50 BBs in 121 IP b/t Richmond/Sacramento
5.29 ERA, 22 Ks/12 BBs in 17 IP in SF
Caleb Baragar, 26 yrs old, 3.45 ERA 107 Ks/43 BBs in 120 IP in Richmond
Sam Selman, 1.80 ERA, 94 K/17 BBs in 55 IP b/t Richmond/Sacramento
Menez completed an astonishing rise from unknown, underslot 14th round pick to major leaguer in 2019, making his big league debut (in front of proud granddad Bill Plummer who I saw play in the major leagues which a sentence that is making me feel older by the keystroke …. and…oh geez here comes the gnawing existential cri…. what was I saying?) just barely more than 3 years after his pro debut. Menez piled up the strikeouts in the minors, with his arm angle and extension giving advanced life to his offerings. Though he took some lumps in the big leagues he still missed bats, and you get a sense for why both of those might be true if you check out the super cool website — Quality of Pitch Baseball. Using statcast data, Menez major league offerings checked in with two above average pitches (Curve and Four Seam Fastball) but also with two very poor quality pitches (slider and change). Still, with the anti-LOOGY rules coming into the majors when next we meet, you can look at that package and imagine some help to the left-side of a bullpen.
Baragar started the year in San Jose and ended it by pitching Sacramento to the AAA National Championship. Unlike Menez, Baragar’s minor league career isn’t littered with missed bats, but he’s left-hander who competes stashed at AAA. That’s a resource that is always a pitch away from being tapped for some up and down work.
Selman, a former 2nd round pick and once upon a time highly ranked prospect for the Royals ran up gaudy numbers in Sacramento last year. Though he barely got a chance to pitch in the majors (3.1 September IP) he could conceivably work his way into a bullpen rotation given the right opportunity.
Bonus Baby
Esmerlin Vinicio, 17 yrs old, signed for $750,000 July 2nd
The Giants didn’t make quite the splash in the 2019 international market that they had in 2018, but they came out very pleased with the depth of their class. One of the plums of that haul was Vinicio, whose pro debut will be held off awhile longer while the world waits. Vinicio is all stuff to dream on at this point — he’s almost comically skinny and will require patience and time to fill out, get stronger and build on the raw materials — a quick, fluid arm, easy delivery, fastball in the low 90s and some feel for spin.
Potential Relief Arms
Luis Amaya, 21 yrs old, 1.74 ERA, 51 Ks/16 BBs in 46.2 IP b/t Augusta and San Jose
Bryce Tucker, 23 yrs old, 1.29 ERA, 33 Ks/8 BBs in 21 IP b/t AZL/Salem-Keizer/Augusta
Mac Marshall, 24 yrs old, no stats worth looking at
Amaya, the 5’11” lefty has already been in the organization for five years and come through the other side of Tommy John surgery. But he’s starting to come into his own as an arm that could offer production, with a fastball that he runs into the 93 range and backs up with a couple of intriguing secondaries.
Tucker was the Giants 14th round draft choice in 2018 out of University of Central Florida where he served as the Knights closer. He’s got power in his arm and could move quickly — as he showed last year by ending his first pro season in the Arizona Fall League. Also, you REALLY want to see him because he celebrates his successes like this:
Marshall seems destined to be best remembered as the unwitting victim of Houston’s Brady Aiken fallout. He brings a ton of stuff from the left side but his pro career so far has been an unending lowlight reel of walks and injuries. If he could ever survive the latter he might be able to work on the former but luck hasn’t been on his side so far.
Some Teenagers
Jesus Gomez, 19 yrs old, 3.83 ERA, 63 Ks/22 BBs, in 54 IP in AZL
Juan Sanchez, 19 yrs old, 3.77 ERA, 53 Ks/27 BBs in 57.1 IP in AZL
Sonny Vargas, 19 yrs old, 5.03 ERA, 57 Ks/20 BBs in 53 IP in AZL
Gomez, Sanchez and Vargas were all members of the Giants final Lucius Fox-constricted international class in 2017 and they offer the normal grab-bag of promise and immaturity. All three signed for low six figures — from Sanchez’ $125k to Gomez’ $300k (the Giants max in 2017). The best single pitch among the three is likely Sanchez’ changeup, but Gomez and Vargas tend to scrape 90 or a tick higher and all have room to fill out and grow (both physically and metaphorically, and hey why not spiritually as well?).
…
So there you have it, with Corry at the top, Vinicio at the bottom and some potential pen arms in between there’s some interest to be had here but we’re still talking mostly a one man show. And given the old rule of thumb that it takes five good pitching prospects to get one good pitcher this is sort of the prospect equivalent of trying to draw to an inside straight. Don’t ever tell me the odds, kid!….
Oh but wait! There’s one more thing I should mention.
Wild Card
Uh…so this is interesting:
and more interesting….
Hmmmm…. Stay tuned….!
On this day in history
Friend of the show @moonwalkmcfly, the artist formerly known as Groug, correctly identified that the last lineup HAD to be from the 2009 Fresno Grizzlies. HAD to! And Doug’s right! That 2009 lineup featured several players who were no longer with the Giants organization in 2010 plus Eli Whiteside who spent all of 2010 on the Championship SF roster. Oh by the way, in that game on April 15, 2009, their opponent lineup was powered by the first home run of the year from SS Michael Morse. Doug’s very legitimate and absolutely real prize is no doubt winging its way westward as we speak*
Guess the team and year:
Jesus Galindo, CF
Elliot Blair, LF
Mac Williamson, DH
Ben Turner, C
Brian Ragira, 1b
Chuckie Jones, RF
Blake Miller, 3b
Trevor Brown, 2b
Rando Moreno, SS
Martin Agosta, SP
1972: Garry Maddox continued his early season tear, hitting two HRs in Albuquerque. It was the 2nd time in three games that Maddox had gone deep twice, part of an epic power surge that saw him HR nine times in the season’s first 11 games. The last of those, on April 20, was an inside-the-park Grand Slam. Maddox had missed two seasons to military service in Vietnam before returning for A ball in 1971, where he posted an epic California League season belting 30 HRs and stealing 20 bags. Still the Giants weren’t sure the 22 year old was ready for AAA at the start of 1972. It took just 11 games for them to decide he was too good for AAA and bring him up to the majors to stay. Now I’m thinking I need a new section: “Forgotten Terrible Trades.” Because Garry Maddox for Willie Montañez — that was a stinker!
2007: Tim Lincecum matched a career high with 11 Ks while throwing 6.2 shutout innings (though Brian Wilson would ultimately blow the save in the 9th inning). It was Lincecum’s third start of the year for Fresno and he had yet to allow a run, striking out 28 over 18.2 IP and giving up just 9 hits. Two starts later he would hit a new high, striking out 14 in another 6 inning shutout performance that would put an end to his brief time as a prospect. After just 13 regular season games over parts of two seasons he had leapt through five levels and ascended to the National League which he would quickly take by storm.
2016: Steven Duggar continued his early season tear, going 4 for 6 with a double and two HRs to help San Jose take an 11-7 win over the Lake Elsinore Storm. Duggar reached base 16 times in his first 9 games of the season, posting a .390 OBP. The hot start helped push him up to AA after just 70 games in his first full season. He’d finish a fantastic 2016 by posting an .823 OPS in 60 games in the Eastern League.
*No it’s not, there is no prize, Doug just gets to feel good about himself.
I’m going to take a little detour from my system overview on Monday and write up a different kind of story that I hope will interest you. I’d also love to do a MailBag on Monday so if you have any questions for me please just leave them in the comments section below. And let me know how you think things are going here. Anything you’d like to see more of? We aim to serve.
In the meanwhile, enjoy some real honest to god 2020 baseball.
Nice piece on Will Wilson today at milb.com: https://twitter.com/SportcentarInfo/status/1251156109496209408
Definitely San Jose, and it would have to be Agosta’s first pass through. Since 2014 was already guessed I’ll guess 2015. I think Agosta was drafted in 2012, so 2014 or 2015.