Today is one of the most nerve-wracking days of the year for certain minor leaguers, I’m sure, as lots of names get bandied about in potential deadline deals. It’s a disruptive day that can take a toll on these kids — I’ve talked with a few who have gone through the trade process early in their careers, as my devoted podcast listeners know. It’s part of the business — and can be a benefit for both clubs and players alike (it’s always good to be specifically sought out by another organization; that leaves a player in no doubt that they’re valued), but it’s hard to go through.
So give a thought for the persons involved in the rumors, and wish for good things coming to all the parties, whether they’re on the move or just trending on Twitter in the rumor mill. It’s a tough thing to go through.
Let’s open today’s Mailbag and see what’s inside…
I’d like your help with dreaming about potential. After the Giants picked two high schoolers at the top of the draft, I’ve been thinking about the organization taking some big swings in hoping their PD operation can yield best-case outcomes for players with real tools. Setting aside expected value and simply looking at upside, who are the prospects besides Marco Luciano and Kyle Harrison with the highest ceiling? Would you do a top 10 ranking or tiered analysis?
With apologies to Scott, I’m going to take a bit of a detour on this one, but with the trade deadline taking place at 6 pm Eastern Time today, thinking about players’ Future Value is perhaps a good place to start today’s mailbag. Though Scott is separating the two notions, I would say that expected value and upside are not really opposing concepts — they are much more intertwined than fans commonly consider them. Yes, there is the occasional boom or bust prospect who pulls at the tension between them, and those A ball arms who throw 100 are always intriguing lotto tickets with a “who knows?” chance to suddenly turn into Luis Castillo one day. But, to me, essentially Luciano’s and Harrison’s Future Value has always been directly tied to their upside and trusting the development process that gets them as close to it as possible.
I say this is a good question for the trade deadline, because I think the notion of FV-based prospect evaluation is a good corrective for fans who maybe tend to clutch their prospects a little too tightly to their chests. For example, Fangraphs currently has the Giants as having three players in their system with a 50 or better FV — that is, three players (Luciano, Harrison, and Luis Matos) whom they see as average starting major leaguers in a likely outcome. You can add in Patrick Bailey, who is barely graduated off the list as a fourth, and then, if you’re feeling generous, you can give teenagers Rayner Arias and Bryce Eldridge a half grade bump (Arias they list as a 45+ and Eldridge a 45, in both cases I would assume because the journey in front of them is so long). That gives you an optimistic group of six players who they see as having a reasonable chance of being 2.0 WAR players, the standard value definition of an average big league starter.
For what it’s worth, when I did my Depth Chart series last winter, I (possibly a more hopeful grader) ended up with nine players at 50 or above, though whether all of those guys will stay at that grade next winter is something I’m starting to consider now (I suspect we’ll have a couple of downgrades). Baseball America adopts a different process, probably more along the line Scott is hoping for here — with a higher grade based on upside along with a “Risk” score (Low, Medium, High, Very High, Extreme). Last winter, by that measure, they had 14 players with 50 or better outcomes, with 12 of those listed as High Risk, one Very High, and one (Reggie Crawford) viewed as Extreme. The risk there serves as a corrective for the plethora of potential “starter value players,” and since they’re all high risk or worse, the calculus there is about the same as Fangraphs — figure some 4-5 big league starters from the group as a reasonable outcome, with attrition rates and injuries possibly either knocking that number down some or shortening the length of peak value.
Of course, there are players all over the starting lineups in the majors who have exceeded the FV from their prospect days (stand up and give a big round of applause to Brandon Crawford), the vast majority of outcomes tend to stray the opposite direction. Guys who were seen as 50s maybe end up in starting lineups, but aren’t really average regulars and instead float through the lineups of various second division clubs. Guys seen as 40s who don’t stick as long-term utility players or high leverage relievers and bounce around in up and down roles. Kids with super-star potential turn out to be “only” perfectly fine (Luciano was once a 60 at Fangraphs, now they have him a 50 — hopefully his performance in the majors will push that up again).
It’s more normal for players to fall short of their good-case outcome than to exceed it. So, as the minutes tick away to the deadline, if there’s a chance to get someone who is already an average or above average major leaguer, the Giants, like all teams, will see the value in moving a player whom they have graded as a 40 or 45 value — which could be nearly anybody in the system after that Harrison/Luciano/Matos/Bailey group (they might also have some differences in their internal evaluations as well — they might be a little higher on Carson Whisenhunt, for example, than the various industry outlets are).
Anyhoo, that was a very long-winded way of completely ignoring Scott’s question, and I’d suspect he’s getting a little impatient with me at this point. As “chalk” as it is to say, I think the obvious answers here are probably Arias, Eldridge, and Crawford.
I saw Arias taking at bats against Mason Black back in March without looking in any way overmatched. In the course of the summer, I’ve seen plenty of Double A hitters who couldn’t say the same, so that’s no small feat. I won’t be surprised if Arias ends up having one of the very best hit tools in the organization after Matos graduates (in a group with say, Wade Meckler and Diego Velasquez) but, married to it, the ability to do real damage.
Eldridge, meanwhile, has top of the line power at 18 (and I’ve opined before that I think power potential can define the limits of upside in some very real ways), and scouts seem pretty high on his ability to hit for a player his size. Any hitter who is 6’7” is going to have holes in the strike zone that need protecting, thanks to those long levers. It takes a really good hitter to defend against a strike zone that large (because he strikes out so much, people tend to sleep on how great Aaron Judge’s hit tool is, but All Rise dude has been a .284 career hitter in an era where the average is about 30-40 points lower than that).
Crawford is still a giant unknown, but as a lefty who can hit the upper 90s with a body made to absorb innings, the sky is certainly the limit for now. Beyond that trio, there are still “what if” scenarios for Grant McCray and Aeverson Arteaga that the strikeout rate closes a bit, the hit tool improves, and there’s some All Star ceiling in that duo. I think it’s exciting enough that they may be part of a big league lineup, without needing to star in one. In other words, I guess I see the guys with the highest upside being the ones who are at the top of the org rankings. I don’t really see any young Alex Canario’s in the system right now, lurking down below and ready to unleash their fearsome bat speed on everybody in a couple of years.
The recent draft class certainly looks strong, so I suppose kids like Walker Martin, Maui Ahuna, Cole Foster, and Joe Whitman could all enter into this conversation in various ways over the next year, as the PD people help them unlock their potential, as could Gerelmi Maldonado (who I’ll continue to raise the banner for) and maybe some of the injured arms like Spencer Miles. Beyond that, it’s always possible that those very youngest kids down in the DSL will run into a growth spurt that completely changes their physical makeups in ways that raise their ceilings. But in talking about players we just haven’t seen much (or any) of yet, we run the risk of that “we haven’t seen these guys fail so let’s dream on them” view that I always try to caution against.
To me, Arias, Eldridge, and Crawford are the likely answer to your question (with Martin perhaps sneaking in the back door) — and it doesn’t escape my attention that I’ve included two of the biggest athletes in the organization in that group (and Arias has a pretty great body for his age as well). Size and upside often have a cozy relationship in this game. There’s a reason why the eyes of amateur scouts are immediately drawn to the biggest guy on the field in warmups.
Outside of the Day 1 picks, which 2023 draft picks are you particularly interested in seeing? Who do think has the best chance of helping out in San Jose's championship quest?
Anybody who has read me for a long time knows of my love for shortstops, so the easy answer to the first part here is the two shortstops taken first on day two: Cole Foster and Maui Ahuna. The pair is in some ways yin and yang — a solid defender with a real chance to hit and an outstanding defender with a little too much boom/bust in the swing — but they’re both exciting additions to the farm.
I’m also intrigued by what I’ve heard about Scott Bandura, one of the two Princeton Tigers they drafted. Bandura hasn’t played very much, but it really sounds like he’s got some legit tools, and there are rumblings of some serious hit data in his summer league performance this year. Jack Payton seems like an incredible value in the 11th round — it seems like he can really hit. And I’m interested in the pitcher Josh Bostick, whom Jim Callis and I talked about a decent amount on his recent podcast appearance.
I’ll also give a plug for an undrafted free agent the Giants recently signed: Bo Davidson is a just-turned-21-year-old centerfielder from a small North Carolina junior college — their first ever to sign a professional contract. Davidson is a former football player who combines intriguing power and speed potential, and got off to a fine start in his pro career with a perfect 3 for 3 with a walk day in his debut.
In other words, my answer is the same one the Giants’ PD folks always give me when I ask who I should be paying particular attention to: “all of them, Roger!”
As for helping San Jose with its playoff run, well, Luke Shliger is already there, so he should have a big role in the second half. But I really do hope we see all three of the top picks there before the end of September.
Regarding Reggie Crawford: while health is the primary goal for this year, what do you think will be his goals for next year? Do you think he's going to work towards starting, or will he be a fast-moving, late-inning reliever?
I would say next year we see the training wheels come off a bit and the Giants will try to stretch him out as a starter first. That’s certainly where his highest value is, and they’re going to exhaust that possibility before looking at him as a reliever. Crawford has premium velocity along with a couple of off-speed pitches intriguing enough to develop, and he certainly has the size and physicality you’d like to see in a starting pitcher. Where to place him to begin with will be an interesting decision. Given the low amount of innings he’s thrown this year, I don’t know that they’ll want to test him quite so quickly against Double A competition, so I’d guess that we’ll see him open the year in Eugene as part of their rotation.
You'd mentioned that the Giants aren't necessarily known as an organization that helps pitching prospects add velocity, but Alex Cobb had a noticeable increase in velocity since joining (92.7 mph avg for his sinker with the Angels in 2021 vs 94.8 in 2022 and 94.7 in 2023). Does the team handle adding velocity differently for prospects compared to a seasoned vet like Cobb or is Cobb just a unique example?
Recent subscriber and I have been listening to all the podcasts in order, which is interesting, as I hear vets like Jim Callis talking up Will Bednar and Matt Mikulski before they both kind of flamed out. There is so much talk nowadays about picking up velo, do you have any thoughts about guys going backward in stuff and velo, like those two? Can we hope for a reversal or are we potentially hosed?
Wow, that’s a completionist project I’d never imagined before, and all I can think is: that’s an awful lot of my voice to have to be listening to (not to mention a pretty unsteady learning curve as I worked to improve my hosting skills)! I’m glad you bring that up though, Craig, as it underlines my point above, that it’s very easy to go “upside” crazy talking about the players we haven’t seen perform yet.
But let’s go ahead and talk a little bit about velocity. The quick answer to Jonathan’s question is that Cobb, like many other pitchers, spent the winter of his free agent season at Driveline, which has a long-established reputation for helping pitchers increase velocity — indeed, they were the disruptor who really changed most everything we think about pitching development when they burst on the scene. After a winter spent working with Driveline, Cobb showed up at Giants’ camp in March of 2022 showing some of the highest velocity of his career in his very first bullpen session. A similar story played out a year later with Sean Manaea, also a Driveline client during his free agent winter. I actually spoke with Chris Langin, head of pitching development for Driveline, about both of them earlier this year.
So, yes, there are some differences between major and minor league development (in the minors, you look to develop the whole player, while in the majors, you try to win games), but there’s also a big part of the story here that comes from the agency of players trying to improve the level of their game on their own. Minor leaguers and even amateurs do go to Driveline, of course, as well as the plethora of other, smaller, pitch labs that have sprung up in Driveline’s wake. I can’t speak to the costs associated with that, but it would figure that major league players are less prone to having to make decisions on where they train based on cost, so an elite facility like Driveline might get a little more of that business.
That said, you can find pitchers at every level of the Giants’ organization spending the winter at one of these sorts of private facilities (I know in past podcasts, R.J. Dabovich, Chris Wright, Tristan Beck, and others have talked about the facilities they’ve used, so perhaps Craig can name them all!). In addition, more and more of the Giants’ minor leaguers are making the Scottsdale area their full-time home and accessing the Papago Park facility throughout the winter. It is important to keep in mind that, ultimately, players should be the primary agent in determining their own future and control the shape of their careers. Organizations are there to support them, but a professional needs to know who he is and who he wants to become.
As for some of the players who have gone backwards, like Bednar and Mikulski, I think we’ve seen enough stories of stuff regressing and progressing over the years that it wouldn’t be wise to close off hope entirely. Bednar’s struggles with back pains have surely played a large role in his reduced velocity, while scouts I’ve talked with regarding Mikulski just think that he has a lot of moving parts in his delivery, which makes it very hard to keep them all in sync together. But both of these kids have had much better stuff as amateurs than we’ve seen from them in their pro career, so it’s not unthinkable that they might find their way back to those levels with the right amount of tweaks and hard work and good health. (I’d also note that if anybody is truly “hosed,” it’s the players themselves, not us who just get to enjoy the outcome of all their work).
Ken Gregory
What is the potential of Ismael Mungia? Do you have any idea how he is viewed by the Giants brain trust?
Is Vaun Brown thought of as a likely major leaguer? Has his stock dropped given his 37% K rate in Richmond this season and low BA? His speed and power are still apparent, but this season seems disappointing considering what he did last year.
If you talk to any coach or player development official in the Giants’ organization, Munguia’s name is certain to raise a smile. Everybody loves him and everybody loves watching his game. Munguia is enthusiastic, energetic, a tireless worker, and a devoted teammate. And he has a tendency to come up big in games. If the day ever comes when Munguia dons a big league uni, there will be a lot of celebrating from the scouts and coaches who have touched his life (and vice versa) along the way.
Of course, “the Giants’ brain trust” isn’t a monolithic thing. Different eyes bring different lenses to bear and every player has his admirers and skeptics. I would say that one such divide in every organization is probably the “analysts” vs “coaches” line, and I wouldn’t be terribly surprised if Munguia is a player who garners more enthusiasm from the coaches who work with him hands on than the analysts who just look at the 1s and 0s that his spreadsheet produces. Munguia’s best attribute (apart from his motor) is his ability to make contact, but I would guess that the Giants would like to see him cut down his swing rate and chase fewer pitches outside the zone. The last time I saw the in-season numbers, he had about a 33% chase rate, which goes against the organizational grain.
Munguia is also a pretty small kid, and you have to wonder how much that impacts him on the field — especially given how much time he’s missed to injury the last couple of years. He was already a minor league free agent last year and the organization thought enough of him to sign him back to a guaranteed deal, despite the fact that he had missed all of 2022 — which tells you something of what they think of him. We’ll see if they make the same choice this winter. If his body holds up, there’s a scrappy big leaguer of some nature in his small frame. In some ways, he reminds me Sergio Romo, a player whose body is barely big enough to contain his heart.
As for Brown, I would say that Brown is thought of as a major leaguer — or at least, he is looked at as a player with major league tools, which is a more scouty way of saying something similar. But there’s no doubt that this has been a rough summer for him. When Brown was destroying A ball last year, you would hear skeptics point to his advanced age for the level and his elevated strikeout rate, and hear folks saying “we’ll see what he does against advanced arms.” What he’s done against those advanced arms lately has been a lot of swing and miss. Brown has two issues causing him troubles at the plate this year — he’s missing in zone and he’s chasing at a high level. One or the other of those needs to come down. Reducing his tendency to chase out of zone is probably the easier of the two to clean up, and would help him significantly — the same way we saw David Villar really take off when he got diligent about his plate discipline.
Brown still really doesn’t have a ton of experience — that’s going to be a drum that never stops beating for that COVID generation — and he’s advanced fairly rapidly in terms of game experience (he’s played fewer than 200 games as a pro). I wouldn’t say his stock has dropped — because a player with his kind of tools and physicality is always going to be someone you watch with enthusiasm. The Giants just want to see him continue to get reps at his level and hope that some of the gaps we’ve seen start to close up and eventually his ability and physicality will once again start to take over and impact the game more consistently. The path takes as long as it takes.
Early predictions for AFL roster selections?
Oh good question! I hadn’t thought much about that as of yet. Certainly, one variety of player who tends to get AFL assignments is pitchers who have missed a lot of innings for one reason or another. Bednar could be a possibility there if he were to get into pitching shape by that point, and possibly Seth Corry could as well, if he’s strong and healthy enough. Maybe if Carson Whisenhunt or Keaton Winn (both just put on the IL with elbow issues) were to get a clean bill of health in September then topping off their successful years with a few more innings in the fall is a remote possibility? One pitcher who makes a ton of sense would be Landen Roupp, who has missed plenty of time this year from minor muscle strains. He’s currently on the IL with a leg strain, but should be ready to pitch again in October. It would be great to see him challenged against the best hitting prospects in the game. Another guy in that “if he’s healthy it would be good to get him some work” camp is Cole Waites, whose year really went sideways from the beginning on him. There will, of course, be a few relievers in the mix, as always. I’ll pick Ben Madison, Juan Sanchez, or Mat Olsen as possibilities.
On the position side, catchers are always in need in the AFL so a return from Adrian Sugastey or Andy Thomas wouldn’t be out of the question. But I think the guys I’d love to see most are probably Brown, Grant McCray, and Aeverson Arteaga — and I can see the Giants naming all three to the team. That would make for a long year for McCray and Arteaga, but they’re at the point where challenging them against the best of their peers is probably the next step, and these are the three guys currently in the minors with the kind of major league tools you like to see in the AFL. Tyler Fitzgerald is another player who would make a lot of sense for the contingent.
You have been clear for a while now that you see Tyler Fitzgerald as a player with a future in MLB. Assuming he stays with the organization past the trade deadline, what do you see his path being in ‘24? 40 man roster? Legitimate shot at being on the Giants for opening day? He seems like the best help available for their middle infield gaps, but he does not have that 40 man slot. Related question - where do Isan Díaz and Brett Wisely fit in the picture for 2024?
Speaking of which, nice to end on a Tyler question. While Fitzgerald hasn’t exactly lit up the PCL, he’s definitely been solid enough there that I would think the Giants would need to add him to their 40-man in November to avoid losing him in the Rule 5 draft. Maaayybe they think they can sneak him through without protecting him (or, get him back at the end of spring training), but given his up the middle profile and athleticism, I’d think somebody would definitely take a gamble on him at this point.
Of course, once a player is on the 40-man, they’re always a longshot at making the opening day roster — all it takes is the right injury or two. Of course, as we well know, making the opening day roster doesn’t mean that a player will still be there on Day Two, as Wisely found out this year. But, if he were to earn inclusion on the 40-man, then he’d go into 2024 as infield depth and we know that the Giants utilize nearly all of their 40-man spots throughout the season (in fact, I’d go so far as to say the ability to do so is the primary motivator behind their decision to place a player on the 40-man in the first place, with few exceptions). So opportunities should pop up for him through the course of the year.
As for Diaz and Wisely, I don’t think Diaz survives the end of year roster cleanup personally (unless something dramatic happens in the final month). It was certainly an inopportune year for him to be injured nearly the entire length of the season. But he’s up now with a brief opportunity, and players can always take those and run with them. For Wisely, he’s got defense, speed, athleticism, and solid swing decisions on his side. That’ll keep him a steady spot on the 40-man, and he’ll keep getting the opportunities to show that he can translate his minor league success to the top level until he either does or doesn’t prove out. They clearly like him, and there are plenty of good reasons for that affection.
And with that, we’ll close up today’s mailbag. Remember to say a thought for the prospects who wonder where they’ll sleep tonight! And hope everything turns out for the best for all parties.
Roger, I'm a big fan of this blog, your fine podcasts, and your Twitter feed. That said, the voice you have when responding to the mail bag questions might be my favorite flavor of them all. The breezy conversational style is so engaging and your enthusiasm from a good question is so palpable I can almost see the wheels turning in your noggin as you sculpt the right response. Just wonderful improvisation upon a theme which (username check) is right up my alley.
Also, a "player whose body is barely big enough to contain his heart" is beautiful and I'll credit you when I steal it.