It's the Final Free For all Mailbag of the 2024 Season!

So long 2024, you've been a good year...

Say goodbye to 2024 (minor league edition). You brought some thrills, some chills, some frustrations, some head scratchers, and many, many memories. Most of all, you brought Bryce Eldridge, Heliot Ramos, Tyler Fitzgerald, Ryan Walker, Kyle Harrison, and Hayden Birdsong to prominence in a variety of ways, and for that we thank you!

And, once that thanking and memorializing is done with, we look forward to the offseason, when we can stare out the window and wait for spring.

But while we’re staring out the window and waiting for spring, what say we answer a few more of your questions, eh?

Bryan P

Hi Roger,

Love the work you do here, thank you for being such a great resource for Giants fans.

Big picture wise, do you think the pendulum has swung too far towards teams clutching/overvaluing their prospects? Theoretically the bill has to come due for AJ Preller at some point, but it seems almost like a form of arbitrage that he's able to consistently land super premium talent by dint of being willing to give up prospect capital. It feels like he's emptied & restocked the farm several times over the last decade, and while it hasn't always worked out, it sure has been entertaining.

The Giants, meanwhile, have stood by and watched a lot of their prospect stock tumble. The hope is still that they become productive players for the Giants, but guys like Luis Matos, Marco Luciano, Mason Black, Carson Wisenhunt, & even Kyle Harrison would presumably be much less valuable trade pieces today than a year or two ago (the famous example for Giants fans of a certain ilk is the "untouchable" Gary Brown). It seems like the most reliable way to bring in premium, cost controlled talent is via trade, so at some point you have to just hold your nose and pay up!

I really appreciate the sentiment, Bryan! It’s definitely my pleasure and privilege to provide you all with the information I do. And if you’ll pardon a tiny bit of self-promotion, I hope folks don’t check out of the site just because the daily posts are over — the off-season, I think, is when I do some of my best work, even if it only comes out three times a week. So I hope the folks who joined this year for the Minor Lines stick around for all the things to come in the next few months.

As for your question, my view is absolutely, positively YES. The pendulum has swung to the extreme end, jerked itself off of its mount, thrown itself out a window, and is currently sitting in the back of a flatbed Ford heading south.

I know a lot of Giants’ fans blame Farhan Zaidi for not moving Blake Snell (or in previous years, Carlos Rodón) at the trade deadline, but for my part, the onus is fully on the other side of things. What in the flying flipping hell was Brian Cashman thinking not making a strong, hard push for Snell at the deadline? Do you want to win a World Series, or not? Because Snell right now in pin stripes would be a pretty strong statement for the former. The front offices of baseball, with the exception of A.J. Preller and probably Dave Dombrowski, are in the thrall of such a tepid conservatism in the current moment that nearly every major (unseen) error is one of omission — the bold moves unmade. And yes, certainly Zaidi is definitely right in the middle of that particular Bell Curve as well, but it takes two over-stiff dance partners to avoid a tango.

And I’d go much, much further than the type of prospects you mention here, Bryan. If you look at the huge prospect trades in recent memory, when top 10-15 level prospects were moved (Gleyber Torres, Eloy Jimenez, Yoan Moncada are three great examples), the team acquiring the veteran talent always came out looking good. Preller gave up real talent to acquire Juan Soto, but as I’ve said before, according to reporting in DC, there wasn’t a legitimate offer from any other team in baseball for a 25-year-old superstar with 2.5 years of control, which is stupefying. “The cost of doing business” does not seem to be a cost that most of the current generation of executives can stomach. And, at least in some part, I think that comes down to the fact that you don’t often have to explain away errors of omission. They float by unseen and unknown, the potentially more valuable road not taken.

Dennis Toures

Hi Roger! Do you remember much of when Bill Neukom was President of Baseball Operations for the Giants, from October 1, 2008 to Dec 31, 2011? Reportedly, he was ousted because of a disagreement with the ownership group over how to spend the winnings from the 2010 World Series. Neukom wanted to invest the money back in the team, but the owners wanted to put it into a rainy-day fund. Do the Giants need someone like him, be "The Guy" and not have to report back every week to a 6-member executive committee, which represents 24 minority investors? In other words, are there too many cooks in the kitchen the way the Giants are currently run? I don't know what the Giants plan for success is.  

If I recall, Neukom help rebuild the farm system after the disastrous free agent signings of Aaron Rowand and Barry Zito, integrated Brain Sabean into the business side, improved the relationship with MLB after the PED scandal, brought in new technology, and authored "The Giants’ Way", which he patterned after "The Cardinals’ Way".  The basic tenement of the Giants’ Way was simply improved amateur scouting, a greater reliance on player development, and less emphasis on long-term free agent contracts. The Giants won World Series titles in 2012 and 2014. Does Neukom get credit for that? 

Is any of this accurate? 

Of course, who doesn’t remember the man with the stylish bow tie and white hair, a man who turned being a family friend of the Gates family (and a very good lawyer) into an astonishingly good life? Anecdotally and quite possibly apocryphally, Neukom often is given credit for crafting and advising the business technology strategy we know today as “reverse engineering,” which is another pretty good legacy to leave behind.

I think your example, however, undermines your question. As his firing would seem to prove, he wasn’t “The Guy,” and did, indeed, have to answer to an Executive Committee and 24 minority owners. As to what, exactly, led to that somewhat shocking severance, I think the reporting at the time suggested it wasn’t one issue, but rather a slowly building pile of grievances among the ownership group, some of which seemed to involve a perception among some of the owners that maybe Neukom had a tendency to self-aggrandize and take sole credit for organizational successes. There were, no doubt, also financial disagreements on the road to separation. Certainly, Neukom’s greatest achievement was to focus the organization back on player development and “The Giants’ Way,” after Peter Magowan had, for years, focused nearly all financial resources on the major league roster, believing that was the only way for the business model to work, especially in the early years of what is now Oracle Park, when the debt load of that construction project was particularly onerous.

I will say this about “The Guy,” however. There’s no one perfect model. Every arrangement brings its own strengths and weaknesses. Certainly a “sole proprietor” ownership is freer to follow personal inclinations, but that can also lead to rashness (as Yankees’ fans who remember the heyday of The Boss might attest). Group decision-making tends to temper volatility a little better, invites more perspectives into processes, and I think helps avoid stagnation at times. While it might be appealing for fans to have a “Steve Cohen” owner willing to take bold moves, it’s worth considering that the current states of the Chicago White Sox, Los Angeles Angels, and Colorado Rockies are all inextricably intertwined in the personalities of their sole proprietor owners. And that thought should be enough for Giants’ fans to cross themselves, quicken their pace, and whisper “there but for the grace of God, go I.”

Gary Coover

Roger, another great season - THANK YOU! Your daily is still a must read every day, which isn't easy covering a farm system that is middle-ish (4th starter at best! Ha!). One question I have for you is about your interviews. FWIW, I particularly love the industry insiders and players, but I think both are great for your fanbase. That said, in your interviews, including KROG (love those!), you constantly refer to the clock counting down. I assume that's because you're doing this on an unpaid Zoom account vs. the person on the other side having strict time requirements. Assuming so, how about you throw something in your newsletter to have your fans fund a monthly premium account ($160/yr)? I'd happily contribute to that if it meant you felt less rushed and we got more content.

This all comes from a place that I am super appreciative of your work and I know at least a few of us super fans would be willing to find more ways to support you besides the annual subscription.

Gary, I really appreciate both the compliment AND the offer. But I will politely decline your kind suggestion. Your supposition is quite correct — I do use an unpaid Zoom account that kicks me off at 40 minutes, and that is what I am referring to when I make that comment.

However, I feel the need to point out here that my subscribers already contribute to the capital fund of this venture — that’s what your subscription fees are doing! I use them to buy equipment I use (cameras, microphones mounts, etc), pay for the trips I take to various affiliates, and whatever other costs I feel are necessary to bringing you the best content I can provide. And, if I really wanted to prioritize a premium account, I could do so easily out of the subscription base.

The fact is, I like the 40-minute cutoff, and prefer to keep it this way. I find that’s a good amount of time for a meaty conversation. I don’t want to tax either my guests’ schedule, or my listeners’ ears, further than that most of the time. When I mention the clock counting down, I intend it merely as a way of letting my guests know that we need to shorten up answers and move to the final comments, not as any kind of complaint or desire for better.

I do really appreciate the note, though! And if anyone really, wants to contribute to things: ⬇️

Noel Brinkerhoff

What happened this year with Rayner Arias? I heard he was hurt again, after breaking his wrist last year, but I didn't hear what his injuries were this time. Can you elaborate on his status and what the Giants plan to do with him next season? Thanks. 

RogerForTheHall

Any update on Gerelmi Maldonado? Has he begun any light tossing? And with that, any update on any other injured players?

I’ve actually made a little headway of picking up bits of information since the last time someone asked an injury update question, so this does seem like a good time to revisit the topic. Thanks for asking, both of you!

Arias, sadly, had another, almost identical injury to the one he sustained in 2023 in the DSL. He broke his wrist attempting to make a catch in the outfield. It happened during extended spring games, and caused both his late entry into the ACL and, I believe, his lackluster performance once he was activated. A second straight injury to the same wrist clearly affected his swing this year — a topic of conversation I had with a couple of scouts when I was out in Scottsdale last month. His swing was very much not the same one I had seen the previous two springs, and nearly all the contact he was making was soft, like swinging wet newspaper. How long it’s going to take him to get over these two injuries is an open — and very significant — question for the talented youngster. He also just needs reps at this point, as he’s obviously fallen behind his peers in that category. The Giants’ injury fortune with major IFA signings has really been atrocious.

Maldonado is throwing again at this point. He’s getting pretty close to the one-year mark in his return from Tommy John at this point, and fully on track to be full go come spring training. That’s the case, too, for Cole Waites, who is within days of his one-year mark, I know. I saw him in camp when I was out there, and he seemed like things were progressing normally. He should be ready to fight for bullpen time come March.

As for others, let’s see….I believe I’ve already mentioned that Ryan Murphy has had Tommy John surgery, and I’m pretty sure that the same is true for Nick Zwack. Another player who has undergone elbow surgery is shortstop Maui Ahuna, who was bothered by it when throwing from very early on this year. The Giants tried to get him through the season by just having him DH and at least get batting reps, but the decision was finally made to have surgery. His Class of ‘23 fellow shortstop, Cole Foster, ended the year with a broken bone, though I’m not completely sure which one. Lower body, I think. Adrián Sugastey is another player whose year ended with a broken bone, and in this case, I can be much more precise — he broke his hand when he was hit by a pitch.

Jose Ortíz, the young outfielder who really opened some eyes with his play in the ACL, suffered a knee injury in his very first game after being promoted to San Jose, and, as it was not the first time this year he had come up with that same knee pain, that is another situation that seems to be trending towards surgery (if it hasn’t already arrived there).

One guy who just continues to be a major question mark is Reggie Crawford. He hasn’t been throwing at all yet, and it seems far from clear what the issue actually is, other than “general body soreness.” Something really needs to change with his situation to move to a happy outcome, I think. Another guy who doesn’t seem very close to returning right now is Juan Sanchez, who is a free agent this winter. He’s going to be an interesting decision for the Giants, who might need to add him to the 40-man to keep him around. Will Kempner had a foot injury that kept him out all year, but I think there’s a chance that he might take part in the AFL this year, so we might still get a glimpse of him before all is said and done.

That’s all I can think of right off the top of my head. Hope it helps!

joe

Any update on who the Giants might send to the AFL?

PGBreaker

Also, can you explain the AFL a bit?

Joe, to be perfectly honest, I do have some information on the group the Giants will send — and I did last year as well — but this is one topic I tend to tread lightly around. MLB really likes to roll out this information in one big packaged PR effort, and I understand and appreciate that desire. It IS a big PR thing for the league, and it IS much more impactful and frankly exciting when the whole thing comes out as a whole. There’s a WOW factor there that dissipates when things come out piecemeal.

That said, since Andy Baggarly and Alex Pavlovic both broke the word this weekend that Bryce Eldridge will be part of the AFL contingent (as part of the story that he had also been pushed up to Triple-A), I guess I can say that yes, he is definitely part of the group this year. (For full transparency, I’ve been saying for weeks that I “expected” him to be part of the group, and I’ll say here that when I first began to write that, it was simply an expectation on my part, one I even discussed with Eldridge, though at the time he was skeptical. Later, however, I had his presence confirmed and continued to use the word “expect” when talking about the possibility as a way of being cagey. I do that sometimes.)

But here I’ll say that I don’t think he’ll be the only exciting member of the Giants’ contingent this year either. This isn’t fully confirmed, but I believe that if you think “fellow 2024 San Jose MVP,” you’ll come with another guy we’ll be happy to see in the AFL. Beyond that two-some, they’ll send the normal contingent of relievers — typically the Giants send relievers they value who either ended the year in Eugene or belong at that level but missed time with injuries. I think Tyler Vogel is going to be in the group, and, as I say, Kempner would make sense. Trent Harris probably has thrown enough innings that they’ll stay away from him. They always send a catcher, as well. This is supposition on my part, but if Sugastey is ready to return, he’d certainly make sense, to try to catch up on those missed reps.

One player who it surprisingly sounds like they won’t be sending to the AFL is Aeverson Arteaga. There have been many complaints around the industry the last couple of years that the talent in the AFL is falling because teams don’t want to send players who are Rule 5 eligible and let industry scouts get a last look at them (see my criticism of modern front offices above). I suppose Arteaga would fit into that category, though it’s hard to see how he would be a more appealing Rule 5 target after missing almost a full year than he was last year coming off a fully healthy season. But if that’s a motivating factor here, then maybe they’ll shy away from sending Sugastey as well. I think Arteaga will get his offseason reps in the Venezuelan Winter League instead.

PG, the Arizona Fall League was created in 1992, mostly due to the efforts of legendary former MLB executive Roland Hemond, as a place for the industry to bring together its best, brightest, and “closest to big league ready” prospects to compete against each other in what is often referred to as “finishing school for big leaguers.” Hemond was unsatisfied with the quality of various winter league options for young players, and encouraged his fellow execs to come together to create their own. It’s an idea with a long history — there was a previous incarnation in Arizona back in the 50s — but this one really took off.

Over the past three decades, the AFL has been the springboard to big league success for most stars of the game and scores of starters and contributors. It’s been estimated that more than 65% of all players who participate in the AFL become big leaguers, and about half of the participants in MLB All Star games over the past couple of decades have been AFL alum.

The setup is relatively simple: the 30 organizations contribute either seven or eight players to the makeup of six teams, who compete over about six weeks in October and November. The logistics are a little complicated — the players each team sends have to come together to make complete rosters with enough surplus at positions like pitcher and catcher that nobody is getting over-taxed. The Giants are always part of the Scottsdale Scorpions team, which plays in their spring training park, Scottsdale Stadium. This year they will share that roster with contingents from the Tigers, Mets, Pirates, and Blue Jays.

One thing that is always true of the AFL is that the quality of hitters sent to participate always far outstrips the pitching — due to team’s reluctance to add innings onto their most valuable pitching prospects. Occasionally, you’ll get a star pitching prospect whom a team sends because they missed time with injury, but mostly the arms are second or third tier, which helps make those hitters’ performances look great!

Henrique Goncalves

I’ve been saving this question till we head to the offseason. I’m going to a wedding in Richmond in October and will have an extra day or two to explore. Any tips of what to do, where to eat, must-see things, etc? All suggestions are welcome :)

Henrique, I have to say this question very much falls outside of my bailiwick, as my main interaction with the city of Richmond tends to be: get into the Diamond, spend the day and night there, and then drive back home to DC.

But have no fear, I fortunately know someone whose bailiwick this VERY much is, so I turned your request to that font of knowledge of all things Richmond, Flying Squirrels Communications Director, Trey Wilson, and here’s what he had to say:

Food:

• ZZQ (BBQ)

• LUNCH. SUPPPER! (Southern)

• Beauvine Burger Concept (Best burger in the best burger city)

• Mama J’s (Soul)

• Perly’s (Old-school deli)

• Moore Street Café (Brunch)

• Joe’s Inn (Retro comfort food)

Things to do:

• James River Pipeline Walkway

• Walk around Carytown and visit local shops/food

• Tour The Diamond (just reach out to me)

• Museums: Edgar Allan Poe, VMFA, VMHC, Science Museum

Music venues I like:

• The Camel

• The Broadberry

• The National

• Altria Theater

• a bunch of others depending on who is in town

I haven’t personally taken up any of Trey’s suggestions (I really should), but I can say that I have personally heard many folks thank him for Richmond food suggestions and remark on how awesome the places were, and nobody loves getting out to music venues as much as he does! So his suggestions are high quality. And if you want to take him up on his offer to tour the ballpark, you can contact him at trey.wilson@squirrelsbaseball.com

PGBreaker

I started listing some names for possible inclusion in my top 30. Can we safely assume these guys have exhausted their rookie status? Matos, Wade Meckler, Jung Hoo Lee, Randy Rodriguez, Mason Black, Keaton Winn, Landen Roupp. Who else?

Well, Meckler hasn’t spent a single day in the majors this year, so, no, he’s in exactly the same position he was last year, as far as rookie status goes. And Matos exhausted his in 2023 (along with Casey Schmitt and others), which is why he wasn’t on last year’s list. I will say right off that you will see different outlets use different standards when it comes to this. As far as MLB’s rules are concerned, rookie status is exhausted when a player has exceeded: 130 AB or 50 IP in the major leagues in previous years, or has spent 45 days on the active roster, not including days in September, when rosters have expanded. Some outlets will still include players who have not reached the statistical benchmarks but have spent 45 days on the roster in their prospect rankings (presumably, because there’s no easy way to “scrape” that data — it has to be tabulated manually). I try to exclude the “45 day” players from my prospect rankings, though I sometimes let some slip through, as I did last year with Heliot Ramos, to my humiliation (humiliated that I ended up ranking him so low, that is).

With that as a setup, here are the players whom I have noted as exhausting rookie status this year and who will NOT be on my Top 50 this winter (in order of their appearance on last year’s list):

• Kyle Harrison (124 IP)

• Marco Luciano (only 106 AB so far, but past the 45-day mark)

• Hayden Birdsong (57 IP)

• Keaton Winn (97 IP)

• Tyler Fitzgerald (300 AB)

• Heliot Ramos (500 AB)

• Landen Roupp (may surpass 50 IP before year is done, but already over 45 days on roster)

• Randy Rodriguez (50 IP)

• Erik Miller (62 IP)

• Jung-Hoo Lee (not on my prospect list last year, but 145 AB anyway)

• Jerar Encarnación (160 AB)

• Spencer Bivens (only 41 IP so far, but just barely hit that 45-day threshold)

That’s quite a group of graduations! In addition to all of those guys, there are two more prospects who still do have a chance to graduate before the season ends, Black, whom you mentioned, currently is at 28 IP, but looks like he’ll be a regular starting option for the final three weeks, so there’s an outside chance he can get an additional 26 innings (my guess is he’ll fall just short and still be prospect eligible). Grant McCray, on the other hand, has a very good chance to pick up the remaining 45 AB he needs to also exhaust his rookie eligibility and graduate from the lists, though he’s been missing from the lineup with some health issues lately, and that may end up throwing him back in the prospect pool as well.

Whew! This year’s Top 50 is going to have a very different flavor.

Eric Walker

What is the appraisal of Blake Sabol's defensive ability at catcher? He seems to have a playable bat for a second catcher, but does he have an adequate glove?

Eric, my own personal appraisal — as well as the appraisal of most people I’ve ever spoken with going back to those who worked with him in the Pirates’ organization — is that he’s simply not a big league catcher. I understand the desire to continue trying him there, because it’s not really clear that his bat is good enough to work at 1b or LF, where he’s probably better suited defensively, but there are a lot of issues.

However, I certainly understand your interest in the question, Eric, as I know that many, many eons ago, you were a foremost proponent in the Giants’ organization of the team bringing up a defensively-challenged catcher (and former 3b) who had spent years banging balls around in the minor leagues — and Bob Brenly’s career ended up turning out ok!

MikeH

Do the Giants have enough in Ramos, McCray, Matos, Encarnación, Fitzgerald, Meckler, etc. to non-tender Yaz?

Personally, I would de-couple those two things. The decision on whether or not to tender Mike Yastrzemski a contract shouldn’t have to do with anything other than his projected value, the contract amount versus other uses of that money, and his role. Yaz is in line for a deal over $10 million dollars in his fourth year of arbitration, so the front office might end up simply making a Value/$$ decision. Yaz has been a slightly below average starting player over the last three years, and teams across major league baseball have been disinclined to pay big money to players in that 1.5 - 2.0 fWAR range, and $10 million might feel like “big money” to the Giants. On the other hand, they may value the player enough and his influence in the clubhouse enough to not worry about wringing the final dollars’ worth of WAR from a player.

Role is another key consideration. You can view Yaz as a perfect 4th outfielder candidate. He’s a great defender in right and a good one in center. He sets a great example for preparation, and he hits well at Oracle Park. But, on the other hand, as the longest tenured player on the team, a six-year starter, and a leader in the clubhouse, he might be a player who is impossible to “demote” into a part-time position — especially if you’re paying him an eight-figure salary.

And this is a team that has to upgrade. It has to get better somewhere. So some of these players who are perfectly competent and provide some value — players who are average — will need to be upgraded. I think we’re conditioned to some degree to view “average” or “a little above average” as a good thing (when looking at 1.5-2.0 WAR players for instance, or 100 wRC+ hitters). From the perspective that it’s incredibly hard to be average in the major leagues, it is certainly an impressive achievement. But from the perspective of competitiveness, I think we would be better served to view average as the enemy. Think “bad” when you see “average,” and you might be on a better mental track to building a competitive roster. IF that roster has great players providing star value, then “average” players backfilling the lineup around them are incredibly useful. But if “average” is essentially the top of your lineup? That’s how you end up treading water for years.

Ramos and Fitzgerald have played well enough this year that they have earned starting positions themselves next year (though Ramos himself has provided just 2.0 fWAR this year, and has been trending backwards lately). But if you’re asking me whether I would expect any of the rest of that group to replace Yaz’s expected 1.5-2.0 WAR value next year, I’d say that I’m a little dubious on that front. But the more important perspective is that it’s not enough to replace it: the Giants need to enhance it, and that’s where the focus should be this winter. Having Yaz-like value as your first line of depth, rather than top of the lineup, is where you’d like the roster to move.

East Coast Giants

To what extent do you think the Giants' ability to develop depth/complementary players is a strength or weakness, particularly when thinking about roster size? In starters, the Giants have a bunch of guys (Birdsong, Roupp, Black, the Carsons, even Beck, Hjelle, or Winn) who could be a cromulent #5 starter in the bigs. They have half a dozen guys who could be 4th outfielders or utility infielders, plus a huge array of relief arms.

On the one hand, it's helpful to have these guys you can trust to be above replacement-level (and getting any major leaguer at all is a development win). On the other, getting them all on the 40-man (you've talked about an overbalanced 40-man towards pitchers in the past) can be a challenge, especially when you want more high-impact players. Same thing for trades: everybody could use these players, but they aren't that helpful when trying to acquire a potential All-Star.

I don’t know that I think it’s either a strength or a weakness — it’s just what farm systems should be able to do in normal cases. All teams produce complementary players — or at least they should be able to. The lack of solid roster fillers does certainly indicate a real weakness for teams. Heck, even when the Giants were at their most dreadful and the farm at its weakest (say, 2017-18), they still produced Ty Blach, Reyes Moronta, Andrew Suárez, Chris Stratton, Kyle Crick, Dereck Rodriguez, Steven Duggar, Steven Okert, Tyler Beede, and Austin Slater, many of whom went on to lengthy and productive big league careers, and all of whom might, in their rookie years, have been viewed in similar lights to the players you mention.

The Giants’ ability to produce a lot of solid value this year indicates they are on a healthy trend line, but the need to produce some stars — or players exciting enough to trade for stars — is still a necessary ingredient for future success for this organization.

SlightlyOff

I’m a little surprised at how openly the Giants are announcing they’re going to send Eldridge to the Fall League. I know he missed a couple weeks with that sore hamstring, but he’s gonna hit 500 PA in his debut season and played at every full season affiliate in the system. Doesn’t adding more work and travel onto your top prospect, who’s still a teenager and already has a super-sized frame to take care of, seem a bit……I don’t know, cavalier? I know the Fall League is fun and prestigious and scouts love it. I’ve always looked a little sideways at it because of how often I’ve heard prospect observers describe certain players as so worn down and gassed in Arizona that there’s really nothing useful or predictive to take from their performance. Bryce wasn’t out for half the season, he had a soft tissue injury that just truncated his April. Is there really that much more the Giants can gain from him taking yet more at bats in an unfamiliar environment after he’s already put in a full season of work?

(I’ll admit on a more personal anecdotal level that I’ve also always blamed the second hand fracture Joey Bart sustained while in the AFL for his development stalling out with the Giants. So I’m a little extra sensitive about the Giants wanting to make such a big show about Eldridge going out there lol.)

I’d climb down off the ledge were I you, Slightly. For one thing, I don’t believe that the broken thumb Bart endured in the final days of the 2019 AFL had anything to do with his stalled progress with the Giants. My view is that the peculiarities of 2020 (no minor league season in which to develop and a Giants’ roster suddenly devoid of a big league catcher) had much more to do with that — along with a development plan and player that were simply out of sync, ultimately leading, I believe, to frustration, confusion, and regression.

Yes, young players are often gassed in the AFL — Mike Trout’s fall league season being an oft-cited example. But that doesn’t mean that the league is a burden. Teams are very careful about usage — players will often get into just two or three games a week. The air is crisp and relatively cool, the workload is low, and there’s a relaxed vibe about the entire environment. I’ve never spoken to a player who didn’t love the experience — even if fatigue was a factor. The ability to interact with players from other orgs — and in Eldridge’s case, older, more experienced hitters whose brains he can freely pick for info and tips — is an advantage completely outside of the actual game play. Players pick up development techniques from their teammates that other orgs or outside facilities are using, gain new friendships, and a real coterie of new peers. It’s a full-on positive!

As for the Giants’ openly “announcing” this move? I don’t know that they’ve done that exactly, though the recent beat reporters all putting it out there at the same time is noticeable (when I’ve been told the info in the last couple of years, I’ve been asked to embargo it). I think we’d be very naive not to understand that sending one of the year’s buzziest prospects to the industry’s premier prospect showcase has a significant PR effect for the organization. And we’d be equally naive not to recognize that the current leadership of the org really needs a PR boost — internally as much as externally. And yes, I think that’s a significant factor in this decision, just as I think it’s been a factor in a lot of the promotions we’ve seen the last couple of years in this org.

But all of that said, I also think it’s going to be a great experience for Eldridge, and one that he’ll remember very fondly going forward — as much as he has his Team USA or Futures Game appearances, or any of those speciality showcase appearances that come with being the best of one’s peers.

Lyle

Not sure if this is worth a mailbag response or just here, but I was wondering about the info that Andy Baggarly passed along about the Giants letting go 4 scouts and reorganizing the scouting department. Do you have any insight into that situation, and how the scouts you talk with feel about this change?

Yes, I know about this and I’ve confirmed who three of the four are at this point and reached out to a couple of them. This is the second consecutive season that the team has let go of people in the pro scouting department, so, however they would like to frame it as a reorganization, it’s clearly a continuation of shifting resources to analytics and metrics-based scouting. That’s been a trend across the industry for years now (many of the members of the Giants’ department, including the Director, Zack Minasian, came over from Milwaukee when they underwent an extreme version of this process, and it’s worth noting that Milwaukee has done just fine since then). However, I will say that some very smart organizations have resisted it — the Rays and Dodgers most notably, who both believe in the importance of combining the two forms of data sets and getting everybody from both departments (as well as coaches) pulling on the same oars.

Obviously, scouts aren’t terribly happy about the eventual elimination or minimization of their jobs and career paths. I had a conversation earlier this summer with a scout for an AL team who was fuming about the fact that his bosses asked him to write up players whom the R&D department had already eliminated as potential targets for acquisition, which made this scout naturally feel like he was just being asked to do meaningless busy work. “If they aren’t going to go after the player no matter what I say, why make me do the work? Just tell me who you want me to look at!” was this scout’s reasonable complaint.

There was an Athletic article earlier this summer about why Shota Imanaga didn’t get more respect from the industry (and a bigger deal) when he was on the market this winter. In it, Zaidi gave an on the record quote that really jumped out at me:

Our pitch-grade models really liked him. They had plus grades on all three of his pitches — fastball, split and breaking ball. But our scouting reports weren’t as strong, and it’s understandable because what makes his pitches so effective doesn’t jump out to the naked eye.

Having a fair-sized background in things like communications strategy and executive leadership communications, I found that quote to be frankly shocking in the way it rather nakedly pitted departments against each other and threw one of them publicly under the bus (not surprisingly, the one that is gradually being winnowed away). My old comms team would have had some serious and immediate conversations about mitigating internal damage had our boss ever come out with something like that. Whether such conversations ever happened in the Giants’ org I don’t know, but I remember coming across that passage and immediately thinking, “there’s got to be some steam coming out of pro scout ears this morning.”

As for what I think about it, I’ll just end with this. I know from personal conversations over the years that some of the people being let go were big proponents for adding Tyler Fitzgerald onto the Giants’ roster and into their plans — long before Farhan and the metrics department were on board with the idea. It strikes me as a pretty ironic coda to a season in which Fitzgerald’s breakout has been one of the few bright lights that people who were among the loudest advocates for him have been shown the door, while the people who counseled the front office to seek help elsewhere have retained both jobs and influence.

Josh G

What do you make of the Giants only giving their top hitting prospects a brief layover in Richmond? It seems odd to me given how hitter friendly the PCL is and the lower quality of stuff among AAA pitchers

It’d say it feels like they’re trying to keep them away from me! I need more Eldridge and Luciano and McCray than we’re getting here in Richmond, Kyle (and I know some other folks who feel that way, too)!

And with that, the regular season Free For All Mailbags come to a close. Look for the next one probably somewhere around Halloween, after I finish up a few end of year things. We’ve still got a little Eldridge in Sacramento action to enjoy this week, so the season isn’t quite dead as a doornail, though it’s certainly on its last gasp. Enjoy what’s left!