It's the Not Quite 4th of July Free For All Mailbag
A weekly tradition very much like most other weekly traditions
Somehow, before I could get into answering any of this week’s questions, I was sucked down a long and fruitless rabbit hole, looking for the old theme song to David Letterman’s mailbag segments (🎵letters…we get letters….get get lots and lots of letterrrrrrs🎵) which is somehow the only thing in the last 50 years of human history that doesn’t exist on the internet? How can that be?
Anyway, it’s clear I need a theme song for this bit. Can one of my talented readers start working on that for me?
There is some prospect news this morning — but you’ll find that over at the Stats Review, heading your way in about an hour.
Let’s open the bag and see what’s inside….
Why do you feel the Giants haven't played Marco Luciano at any position other than shortstop? I can't imagine Farhan is dead set on Luciano being a shortstop-only big leaguer—that just doesn't make sense since Luciano isn't an elite SS defender. If the brass thinks there's a good chance Luciano remains in the org, wouldn't it be a no-brainer to give him at least occasional innings at third base and/or in a corner outfield spot well before he hits the bright lights of the majors? So, I'm left thinking there's a legit chance Luciano is included in trade packages at the deadline this year—read: they're trying to showcase him as a viable SS to maximize his trade value—or the front office feels there's still plenty of time in his development to enhance his positional versatility (perhaps after he really establishes himself in Double-A). Why do you think they're restricting this prized asset to the 6 thus far? And do you feel that's the right call?
The normal rule of development thumb with players like Luciano is that you keep them at the most valuable position as long as you can. And the rationale behind that rule is pretty obvious: a potent bat playing at a position atop the defensive spectrum is going to be incredibly valuable regardless of whether he’s a Gold Glove candidate or not. One need not look that far back in Farhan Zaidi’s history to find a great example of that, either. Nobody outside the Dodgers much believed that Corey Seager had a chance to stick at shortstop, and frankly, he’s never been particularly good at the position and in some seasons has been outright dreadful. But having his bat at the six is a huge benefit for the potency of the overall lineup (and Seager is always part of potent lineups).
I actually feel like in the last week, I said some variety of “Luciano’s moving around much better in the middle” than at any point in the past and, while I don’t think he’s reminding anybody of Brandon Crawford in his prime, he does make the plays, and he has a very strong arm. The future of the Giants’ shortstop position is still far from clear, and if there’s a chance that the Giants can ultimately get Luciano’s bat into a lineup at shortstop, they are certainly smart to prioritize making that chance a reality — and that means getting him lots and lots of focused, dedicated reps at the position.
The day may come when, for whatever reason, Luciano needs to find another defensive home, but in his case, I’d say giving him all the chance in the world to stick at the six is just smart development.
What does Kyle Harrison's new slider mean for his long term outlooks? The previous one was graded out as plus, would then new one be better? Also has his change-up backed in terms of stuff or do yo think he's focusing the slider because he's been tinkering with it start to start?
Sometimes pitches are graded out as plus until better hitters start to get a look at them and have their own say on the matter. One thing that was apparent really early on this season was that in Triple A, the hitters were identifying his slider early, and, because it has such a long horizontal break, once identified they’d just let it go, figuring it was likely to be a ball. He wasn’t throwing it for strikes, and, unlike previous levels, hitters weren’t chasing it out of the zone at all. Better hitters often means it’s time to innovate (Logan Webb mostly moved through the minors as a four-seam fastball/slider pitcher, but the successful starter he’s become in the majors is a far different guy).
The Sacramento staff (Pitching Coach Garvin Alston in the lead), working with Harrison, wanted to come up with a pitch that had a sharper and shorter break, so that it would stay in the strike zone with its break, rather than breaking all the way across and then out of the zone, the way his bigger slider does.
So far, that’s been working out, giving him a three-pitch mix of fastball, cutter, slider that gives the hitters a more complicated decision tree — if it’s breaking, is the break going to be short or long — that hopefully will help both pitches play up.
I’ve always been a fan of the change (I’ve told him that a number of times), but he’s never felt fully comfortable with the pitch, and often tinkers with it or shelves it for long periods of time. I do think it can be a very effective part of his pitch mix, but you have to really trust the pitch for it to be effective. That’s part of the process.
Am I right in thinking the likes of Carter Aldrete, Jairo Pomares, and Seth Corry will be eligible for the minors portion of the R5 draft if not in Sacremento by the end of the year? Want to avoid another year where the minors gets heavily raided.
Not exactly. This gets very complicated — and is completely lacking in transparency — but eligibility for the minor league portion of the Rule 5 draft doesn’t have anything to do with where players finish the season, or what rosters they were active on. Rather, after the season is over, teams reset their minor league rosters the same way they reset the 40-man. On a given date in November (assigned by MLB), teams must place various prospects on their major league 40-man roster to protect them from being taken in the Rule 5 draft. On, I believe, the same date, they assign players administratively to various affiliate rosters for the winter. Players who have reached the required service time (it’s the same for both major and minor league portions) who are not assigned to the Triple A roster at that point, can be selected in the minor league portion of the draft.
But just as players are protected from the major league portion by being placed on the 40-man roster, the Triple A roster that protects players from the minor league portion is also significantly bigger than an in-season active roster. Teams are allowed to place 38 players on the Triple A roster — so between the San Francisco and Sacramento rosters, the Giants are able to protect 78 players from being poached by other teams. There used to be a Double A portion of the Rule 5 draft as well, and the same rules applied (so many players were placed on the “Richmond” roster to protect them).
So the fates of players like Aldrete, Pomares, and Corry (all of whom are, in fact, Rule 5 eligible, as they were last winter), doesn’t hinge on where they play this year, but rather on what affiliate roster the Giants assign them to come November.
Hunter Bishop posted a video and tweet that said “soon”…. Sounded like he was out for the season. Is he referring to starting baseball activities… I know you don’t like to speculate on injuries, but maybe you heard some good news
Indeed he did. Here, visual evidence!
Bishop was placed on the 60-day IL after having elbow surgery at some point in the spring (I believe that it was not Tommy John, but rather a different surgery to repair the UCL tendon). For a pitcher, that would be an automatic lost year, but hitters generally return a little quicker (Bryce Harper being a current example of that), especially if they aren’t throwing.
Now, whether Bishop’s cryptic message meant that we would see him playing in a game “soon,” or merely get to start swinging a bat “soon” is unknown. If I had to guess I’d say the latter, but it is great to see that he’s progressing well. The 60-day IL designation leaves room for him to return to an active roster at any point in the second half, as we’re already past the 60-day mark in the minor league season.
Roger, I feel like every spring and summer I have a ton of fun reading about draft prospects, and then when it's all over, there's a tinge of disappointment when some of my favorites end up elsewhere. But I've also come to the conclusion that my immediate reaction to a draft pick doesn't really have any correlation with how the player ultimately turns out.
Anyway, I have draft fever again! Do you?
I'm going to try extra hard this year to keep an open mind and root for whoever signs with the orange and black rather than grind over the (perceived) missed chances. Has your perspective on the draft changed at all over the years? Any advice for fans like me who obsessively study Baseball America and other outlets all draft season?
I think it’s probably good for everybody to come to the conclusion that their immediate reactions to the draft aren’t likely to age well and that it’s best to let them float on. But, yes, I get it. I too obsessively study Baseball America and draw too deep conclusions about the talent on hand. The year the Giants drafted Tyler Beede, I badly wanted them to take Touki Toussaint. It turns out that neither have particularly distinguished themselves in the intervening years — indeed, the success stories from that draft are few and far between (and the most successful pick of all was essentially given away before he had time enough to help his organization).
Interestingly, I’ve found that since I’ve started There R Giants, my passion for digging into the draft has diminished a bit. I’m just way too busy following the Giants’ prospects intensely and pumping out the content on this site to invest too much time in the draft side. Oh yes, I still love me some high school shortstops who can hit (John Barr recently guffawed at my prevalence in a recent conversation, saying laughingly, “because they’re soooo easy to find!”).
As for advice? Well, remember your fiercely held position is likely wrong and even the most seasoned scouts have a losing record when it comes to predicting the future. And remember also, that successful development stories can come from unexpected places, and leave your mind open to possibility and surprise.
Looking at the players in the Giants org, there are many that are from the Bay Area or NorCal, plus a few more from the west coast. Is this real or just my brain cherry-picking? If so, is it the same for other teams too? Do free agents or drafted prospects give home town discounts? Has any one done any estimates on how big this might be?
You’re not imagining anything, Farhan Zaidi has been very vocal about his strong desire to acquire talent from Northern California. This isn’t that unusual actually. Teams have long talked about not wanting to get out-scouted in their own backyard, and Atlanta has long made it something of a rallying cry in their drafts. How Buster ever escaped their grasp is a complete mystery. If you’ve listened closely to Duane Kuiper over the years, you can subtly tell that it ticks him off to see local kids like Corbin Burnes or Tony Gonsolin (both of St. Mary’s in Moraga) come into Oracle and kick the Giants around for an opposition team.
But beyond the desire to have the local talent covered, Zaidi has also talked obliquely about the unique challenges that the Giants face in trying to market San Francisco to free agents, for a variety of reasons (cold weather in the home park, California taxes, high cost of living, and a reputation for extreme liberalism in a sport where most of the players are … not necessarily that, are but four of those reasons). I think it makes sense to the front office to bring in players who call Northern California home and bring a sense of comfort with the region with them into their Giants’ careers. It’s a part of why you see them signing Mitch Haniger or Joc Pederson or making minor moves to acquire Tristan Beck or J.D. Davis, or drafting Kyle Harrison or Andrew Kachel. It’s part of why you saw them lock up Logan Webb to an extension. All of these players have a sense of comfort with the Bay Area that isn’t necessarily a part of other players’ life experience.
Dan Brookings
Do you have any insights into why the Giants are being so ultra conservative with Arias? I don’t think it’s a cultural acclimation issue as he was here for spring training and, according to Kyle Haines, fit in well.
Do you think he will be brought stateside soon?
I don’t really expect him to be brought stateside, to be honest. I don’t think the team is at all surprised by his success in the DSL, so if the States are where they wanted to develop him, I would think they would have kept him here in the first place. As I wrote a few weeks ago, my guess is that the assignment is not about being conservative with Arias’ development. Rather, there are a few administrative changes that have made keeping players on the international side more appealing to all teams. First, teams are limited to a maximum of 180 players on the domestic reserve list — and virtually every team is constantly flirting with that maximum (we’ll start to see more releases after the draft as teams have to make room for new signings). Especially as we get into the middle of the summer with more and more players are heading to the IL for various reasons, the Giants, like every team, are having to cover innings by signing minor league vets or Indy ball guys. Leaving players in the DSL for a year allows teams a little more flexibility in working through the incredibly complicated organizational roster machinations that a summer of minor league ball takes (and next year that limit will go down to 165, making it even more difficult).
Secondly, changing the bonus signing date from July to January has had the effect of making the players’ first year of game action be the year in which they also owe taxes on their signing bonus (that didn’t use to be true when the signing date was July 2nd). The difference between owing that money in the Dominican Republic and owing it in the United States is, I believe, quite substantial, and, I would imagine that this is something that comes up in negotiations with trainers and player agents.
But the big thing that everyone should remember from this question is that it’s not just the Giants behaving this way. Virtually every team is — this is an industry-wide trend. Of the top 20 players listed on MLB’s ranking of top international signings from this year, only the Padres’ Ethan Salas (the top signing in the class) and Korean right-hander Jun-Seok Shim are not currently playing in the DSL. After the top 20, I stopped checking — but I suspect the trend continues on down the list.
I think the thing to keep in mind is that, while there is some difference between the two levels, naturally, it’s not really a huge one and shouldn’t cause any undo delay of a talented player’s development arc. Yes, we’re seeing most teams start their top signings in the Domoinican, but we’re also seeing teams push those young players straight from the DSL to Low A leagues, skipping the American complex in between — the Dodgers’ Josue de Paula and the Angels’ Nelson Rada being two of many, many examples this season. I would expect that Arias will join this wave of talent and jump from into the Cal League next year, whether or not he plays any time in Arizona this summer.
Gary Coover
One of my favorite segments you do is identifying most likely trade candidates in the system, factoring in Rule 5 status. I'm sure that's on the horizon. Prior to that, I wonder if it would be interesting to do a keep vs. trade comparing similar-ish prospects. Or maybe just a "if I had to choose one". For example, would love your take on:
Matos vs. Luciano (I assume Harrison is the obvious no-brainer)
Brown vs. McCray
Crawford vs. Whisenhunt
Beck vs. Winn vs. Hjelle
Waites vs. Dabovich vs. Rodriguez vs. etc.
Meckler vs. another over-achiever
Maybe it's just a different flavor on a top-20 rankings, but I think getting your take on how that take has changed since the start of the season would be interesting
Goodness me, I want to keep all of these guys!
Obviously, you’re referring to things I’ve written in the past that tend to focus trade rumors on the ripple effect they might have on the 40-man roster. Because the Giants put such high value on the use of the 40-man to functionally extend their major league roster, players on the roster but not contributing to the current major league season are vulnerable to becoming trade chips, as in the case of Alexander Canario. And players who would be Rule 5 eligible in the coming season whom the Giants don’t foresee protecting would likewise be vulnerable to being moved, as in the case of Prelander Berroa.
So, what kinds of players are we talking about? Well, in the former category, Jose Cruz could be considered. He’s reached Double A, but I don’t think he’s likely to be in a position to have any impact on the major league roster this year. Randy Rodriguez, on the other hand, is now in Sacramento just a short ride away and throwing better than he has in two years — and has arguably put himself in front of Cole Waites on the depth chart.
As for players who would put pressure on the roster next year, the two most obvious candidates are Grant McCray and Aeverson Arteaga, but in each case, the Giants are in a similar position to last year when both Luciano’s and Luis Matos’ trade value suffered from injury and poor performance, respectively. While they both might be candidates to be moved to avoid crowding the roster next winter, as Farhan Zaidi said last year, it can be hard to sell a trade to your fanbase (or ownership) when the top piece you acquire is hitting .200 in A ball.
But there are some other, small pieces who will represent difficult roster choices this winter whose stock is up, including Tyler Fitzgerald, Nick Avila, Ben Madison, Chris Wright, Victor Bericoto, even Logan Wyatt. And if Seth Corry joins an affiliate soon and starts catching some scouts’ eyes, he might be an intriguing part of this mix as well.
Let’s lightning round through your “would you rathers.” My choice for who I’d prefer to keep:
Pass
Brown, I think
Crawford, upside
A very easy 1) Winn, 2) Beck, and 3) Hjelle. I think Winn’s a future starter (like a guy who might one day pitch in a 7th inning, and not just coming into the game at that point!)
Randy
There is no one like Meckler
Back to the top question. That’s an almost unanswerable choice. Matos can’t go because he’s essentially made himself indispensable through a combination of his own improvement and the fallow field of OF falling around him. That would presumably make Luciano the choice if a choice had to be made, but, absent a huge month of July, you’d inevitably be selling as low as possible on Luci, which is not a position that smart clubs like to find themselves in. That, then, pushes the choice for trade piece over to Harrison, but smart teams never ever reduce their stock of young pitching if they can help it. It’s an unsolvable conundrum. Wish Farhan luck!
(PS, I think none of the three are going anywhere)
It’s been an exciting season so for the farm. But there are also some of our most highly regarded prospects that are underachieving. McCray with over 90Ks and hitting in the .220s. Brown is also striking out at nearly a 40% rate in AA as is Luciano. There is a lot of season left but I’m wondering what your take is and whether its just a matter of time to adjust to a new level for all three. Thoughts? And Joey Bart seems to have regressed, also striking out at a very high rate in AAA. Have you heard anything from your sources about what’s going on with him?
I’m also wondering about the upside for Tyler Fitzgerald. Is he destined to be a utility guy at the major league level or can he be an everyday player. Have expectations for Will Wilson eased relative to what they were when the Giants acquired him? He seems to have mostly struggled at the plate once he got past high A.
Just as there was a flawed narrative last year that things were horribly spinning out of control on the farm, there is probably something of a flawed narrative in seeing all the rookies making a positive impact on the major league roster and assuming that everything is coming together perfectly on the farm.
It’s more than 200 players trying to reach their full potential doing something that is almost impossibly difficult. You’re just never going to have a year in which everybody takes positive strides together. But just as 2022 didn’t mean the end of Matos’ or Bailey’s hopes at a big league future, or just as 2021 didn’t put a stake through the heart of Beck’s prospect status, 2023 doesn’t have to mean that McCray or Arteaga or Brown or Luciano are regressing. They are going through challenges, and how they respond to those challenges will be important. In McCray and Arteaga’s situations, I think we have to believe that there are some significant challenges with moving up to Eugene that weren’t immediately apparent when that change happened. That doesn’t mean they’ll magically pop back into shape when/if they move up from that level, but I do think it has to be factored into evaluations.
In Brown’s and Luciano’s cases, I think we have to remember that they’ve still taken relatively few PA in a difficult new level, after having essentially missed all of spring training. Think about the number of games/PA it took Michael Conforto or Haniger to begin to look comfortable after missing time with injury, and I think it gives us a ballpark estimate of what to expect for Brown and Luciano — except that Conforto and Haniger were trying to get comfortable at a level in which they’ve already succeeded and thrived, while Brown and Luciano are trying to find their footing in one of the more difficult development challenges in the minor league process.
Actually, I think my friend Trey Wilson had a great tweet on this very topic:
As for Fitz, it would be a great success if he becomes a utility player! And really, if his career continues with the Giants, I think we know enough by now to know that the distinction between “utility” and “everyday” players is something of a false dichotomy. We also know that players who thrive when given an opportunity will be given more and greater opportunities. So, the answer, as always is, it’s up to Fitz!
How much longer until we see Landen Roupp in Sacramento? Also, Erik Miller is putting up incredible numbers in Sac relative to the rest of the pitching staff. Is his stuff that good or is he due for a regression? If the former, might he be a call-up candidate? (I know he’s walked a good amount, but perhaps that’s a function of the ABS system.)
Roupp is doing very well so far in Richmond, piling up 4 inning, one run outings like a stack of magazines on the coffee table. That said, I don’t get the sense that he’s exactly bullying the league, nor that there’s an imminent sense of promotion coming. Roupp shows strong command of solid stuff, keeps away from the middle and misses bats with his curve, and that’s generally led to good results. I actually think Mason Black might be a promotion candidate before him, but both have been excellent. Still, I could see the Giants leaving both in Richmond for most or all of the remainder of the summer. Neither quite feels like they’ve gotten to the point where they’ve “beat the level,” as Manager Dennis Pelfrey says, and there are some ripple down effect questions about who would be shoved out of the Sacramento roster and how to replace the innings in Richmond (there’s certainly no starter in Eugene who would be ready to step into the void. So let’s just let them both stay out East for another month or three and let promotion be a topic for another day.
As for Miller, the big lefty does have big stuff, but he also has real challenges controlling that stuff, which has always led to high walk rates. So far in Sacramento, Miller has 19 walks in 23 IP, which doesn’t sound like the kind of ratio Zaidi would consider calling up to the majors.
Your recent musings about wRC+ and chase rate got me thinking. I'm curious about which statistics you feel the Giants are prioritizing to help evaluate their prospects. I'm sure they have elaborate models that incorporate all kinds of things. But which two or three stats do you think are most important for them in assessing pitchers? And hitters?
I’ve asked this question before of some of the player development officials, and they always direct me back to controlling the strike zone: K/BB ratios for pitchers and for hitters. Along with some of the basics (average and slugging are important) it’s those ratios that reflect the essential battle for control of the strike zone that matter the most in this organization — although, you’re quite right, I’m sure they have much more sophisticated modeling going on in the background.
That’s it for this week’s mailbag. The Post Office will sadly stay shut for the 4th of July next week, so hopefully if you have any burning questions that didn’t get answered, they can hold for a couple of weeks.
Look for the Stats Review (complete with complex level game reviews) a little later today. Tomorrow, I’ll have a draft preview post for you as well as a much better draft preview podcast with my friend Brian Recca.
Thanks, Rog!
Great questions, outstanding answers.