Let's Make a Deal: Tony Watson
Does he fit anywhere? He fits everywhere!
Photo: Tony Watson Wikipedia page
Now we’re finally getting somewhere. An actual, legitimate player who not only can be traded next week, but who I think is likely to be traded next week, even if the club continues to put themselves into the expanded playoff picture.
Previously in this series I’ve:
I suppose I can be accused of having one foot in and one foot out in this trade series, because I really do feel like we’re going to seen the quietest trade deadline in memory for a variety of reasons.
But now I’ve finally found the easy seat. Everybody needs pitching, and everybody who needs pitching needs a lefty in the pen who can get right-handed hitters out. The Giants want to win, but their hopes of doing so don’t hinge on the crafty old lefty in the pen whose future lies elsewhere after November. There are calls to be made here. Many calls. Brian Sabean and his Razor phone may need to be talked out of retirement because so many tires beg kicking.
The question, of course, is what really works as a return. Most years the Giants would send their scouts out to get coverage of an org they’re talking to. But this year there’s no coverage to be had, scouts have been shuttered at home, and teams are relying solely on some vanilla statistical data coming out of Alternate Sites. There’s no eyes on players, no current looks. And that’s for the players actually in action in the teams 60 player pool. For the rest of the wide diaspora of minor league players, there’s simply no information at all.
That’s what complicates something like a Tony Watson deal. The type of players he might be had for —the Prelander Berroas of the world — are currently MIA. And yes, the Player To Be Named Later rule can hypothetically be used to work around the requirement that all players must be traded off the 60 man pool (we just saw that happen yesterday with Taijuan Walker moving to Toronto). But there’s a ticking clock on the PTBNL mechanism — it lasts just six months. That means that at the end of February the deal must be consummated one way or another. As the chances of prospect Fall Ball decrease daily (in a normal year the Arizona Fall League’s roster would have been announced about now) and the public health situation doesn’t give much optimism that teams might be cleared to run Instructional Leagues, teams have little reason to believe they’d be able to get any looks at all on the players they might be discussing acquiring — not even a brief Spring Training appearance.
Baseball America’s Kyle Glazer reached out to the Commissioner’s Office to see if there had been any discussion of extending the PTBNL mechanism beyond six months and was told there has not been. To state the obvious: teams don’t like making decisions about acquiring players they haven’t had even the briefest glance of in a year or longer — particularly the younger players whose bodies and skills can change dramatically from year to year.
Even that could be a best case scenario. Currently minor league contracts are frozen by baseball and cannot be traded and the Commissioner’s Office has given no indication of when that situation might be changed. As Ken Rosenthal has reported, if the six-month period for determining a PTBNL expires without MLB unfreezing minor league contracts, the acquiring team will be given a maximum of $100,000 in cash considerations. Are the Giants so eager to rid themselves of the presence of Tony Watson that they’d be happy with a 20 year old they haven’t seen in 18 months or cash considerations? I wouldn’t think so. In a bullpen that is crashing around the team’s ears, he does have a use after all.
Another blueprint to look at is the Red Sox-Phillies Brandon Workman-Nick Pivetta deal. Players who have made the majors but haven’t yet shown that they can stick and still need time to develop into useful big leaguers can be trade fodder. Guys on the fringy side, for one reason or another, of the 40-man roster. Essentially guys like Rico Garcia or Wandy Peralta or Daniel Robertson — three players the Giants have acquired without trading much talent over the last year. It makes sense for these types of players to be experiencing their ups and downs on non-competitive rosters that can give them playing time in exchange for reliable relievers like Workman. (And yes, Boston also got a very fringy prospect in the deal).
So that’s our challenge. Let’s hunt for teams who need left-handed help in the bullpen (everybody!) and who might have a fringe member of their organization or perhaps a likely PTBNL who could help the Giants more than the team they’re coming from (maybe still everybody?).
The Contenders
Ok, so stipulating once again that Tony Watson would be of use to every contender in baseball (including the Giants) here is the group that seems particularly likely for me:
Yankees, Phillies, Padres, Cubs
The Yankees have seen depletion hit every aspect of their roster including the loss of left-handed setup may (and sometimes closer) Zack Britton - possibly for the season — as well as right-handed setup man Tommy Kahnle. They’re also scrambling to plug holes in their rotation and suffering from the recurring sight of Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton missing from their lineup. That’s important because it suggests that depth will be particularly meaningful to the Yankees and they might not have many pieces on their 40-man roster to spare.
You may recall the Yankees were also one of the teams that seemed to fit for Johnny Cueto, which means they offer the tantalizing possibilities of something larger — perhaps some shuffling of the contracts of Cueto and J.A. Happ among other moving pieces. But I’ll still stand by my view that big contracts are unlikely to move and for now keep my eyes strictly on a deal for Watson.
The Yankees are looking at a pretty large 40-man crunch this winter so players who are either out of options or who are likely on the outside looking in for Rule 5 protection this winter are probably the best place to look. The top of the Yankees prospect lists is pitching heavy and they’ve had to add a lot of arms to their 40-man recently: Albert Abreu, Deivi Garcia, Luis Gil, Luis Medína, Alexander Vizcaino. That might end up leaving no room on the 40-man for Roansy Contreras come November. Contreras doesn’t have the pure stuff of Gil or Medina, but he makes up for it with a well-rounded repertoire which he controls well — not terribly dissimilar from the Giants Kai-Wei Teng in that regard. Unfortunately, Contreras is also the only one of that group who isn’t currently in the Yanks 60 player pool, which could make Vizcaino a better target. Vizcaino pairs high 90s gas with a true swing-and-miss changeup. Whether either could be had for a rental bullpen piece could be a stretch. If we need to look further down the organization, two other players who are almost surely looking at being exposed to the Rule 5 draft this winter are 1b Chris Gittins, a RHH who has always paired excellent walk rates with solid power, and 21-year-old switch hitter Oswaldo Cabrera who brings strong defense at 2b/SS/3b and some feel to hit. Another intriguing option of a player who is in the Yankees 60-player pool but not on their 40-man roster is old friend Dan Otero.
The Phillies make an obvious contender as they’ve already started acquiring help for their bullpen, gathering up Brandon Workman and Heath Hembree from the Red Sox. In addition, Giants’ manager Gabe Kapler has some familiarity with the talent on hand. Unfortunately, the talent on hand is a little lackluster. One somewhat interesting player on their 40-man is former Dodger Kyle Garlick, a RHH OF who posted a 114 wRC+ with the Dodgers in 30 games last year and might make a decent substitute if Austin Slater is going to be missing for a significant length of time. Garlick comes with two player options left. The Phillies also have several young arms in their player pool who they might be willing to flip for a veteran arm, including RHP Enyel De Los Santos or Mauricio Llovera or LHP JoJo Romero and Damon Jones, any of whom would make a very strong return for Watson.
The Cubs have already announced that the left-handed side of their bullpen is their #1 priority for the trade deadline, which obviously puts them very high on the list. But the Cubs are also one of the teams who went lightest on prospects in their 60 player pool, which means matching up with them gets a little trickier. The Cubs excluded all of their #5-10 prospects from the pool, despite having vacancies. One prospect who is in their pool — and on their 40 man — is RHP Adbert Alzolay. Alzolay has made brief major league appearances (17.1 IP) the last two years, without as yet finding much success. But the Cubs have publicly raved about his progress at the Alternate Camp. He’s just the kind of “future promise for today’s certainty” that would make a great pick up for the Giants, and if the Cubs prioritize Watson as a target they might be motivated to give up their #11 prospect. If the Giants are forced to shop in the bargain bin, a possible option would be reliever Duane Underwood, Jr., a hard-throwing RHP who is out of options and has yet to show he belongs in the major leagues. Underwood currently pairs a K/9 of 12.66 (good!) which a FIP of 6.63 (bad!).
The Cubs also offer the possibility of a good old fashioned need-for-need baseball trade, which Farhan Zaidi suggested could be the Giants’ intention. As the season has gone along, the Giants platoon flexibility has waned a bit from a roster that started with a full contingent of LHH and RHH. Jason Kipnis has destroyed RHP so far this year, and can offer help in both the infield and outfield. He’s been a useful part of the Cubs offense this year but isn’t at the top of the depth chart anywhere. Would an expiring contract for expiring contract deal be worthwhile to both teams? Usually locker-rooms frown on subtracting talent mid-season, but Zaidi has been known to try to add and subtract simultaneously in the past (though with spotty success).
The Padres, of course, are the darlings of MLB, led by Fernando Tatis, Jr. and a host of young talent. They’ve started to separate themselves from the non-Dodgers portion of the NL West, but their emergence has been beset by bullpen woes as both Kirby Yates and Drew Pomeranz have hit the IL for what appear to be lengthy stays. If the Padres really want to shove their window open, relief arms will need to be obtained from somewhere.
Like the Cubs, San Diego also would seem to match up with the Giants for an intriguing major league transaction. Buried on the depth chart of nearly every position on their roster is 26-year-old infielder Ty France. France, who very nearly hit .400 last year in the PCL, is stuck behind Manny Machado at 3b, Eric Hosmer at 1b, and now the emergence of Jake Cronenberg at 2b. He’s been coming in off the bench and filling in here or there to give players relief days, but he doesn’t seem to have a permanent role in the Padres’ offense. Could the former 34th round draft choice be a surplus for the pitching hungry Padres? Beyond France, another “just hanging on to a roster spot” player is the former A’s speedster Jorge Mateo, who is out of options and struggling to establish himself as a big leaguer. Mateo has basically been an empty roster spot for the Pads so far this year, and as another RHH he might not fit the needs of a Giants team that is suddenly very right-handed.
Would either of these teams be willing to strengthen one of their direct competitors for the stretch run? The Padres have been humming along but they’re also increasingly being constrained by injuries. Somehow a roster that as recently as last year had more corner OF mashers than they could fit into a lineup has been forced to play Jurickson Profar and his 76 wRC+ in left-field on a daily basis (thanks to the season-ending injury to Tommy Pham), so they might want to hang onto all the depth they have.
All of these teams match up pretty well for talent and the Giants could find some measure of upgrade for the back-end of their roster. But since giving Watson to any NL team is a move that could bite them in their attempts to make it through the scrum, I’m going to go with the AL contender. There’s a lot of competition though, so it’ll need to be two pieces, Mr. Cashman.
How’s the Match-O-Meter feel about that?
Final Deal: Tony Watson to the Yankees for Alexander Vizcaino and PTBNL (Roansy Contreras)
There you go! Now was that so hard, Roger? We moved a talented, in-demand player for a little down the line talent who the Yankees likely won’t have room for. It could hurt our efforts to make the playoffs this year, but it gives us a couple of solid arms who could be part of the long-range plans. Done and done! Hopefully some of the many lefties on the Giants roster can step up and fill Watson’s shoes (looking at you, Sam Selman!).
On Monday I’ll finish up our Trade series with an omnibus look at a few other pieces who might be tradable at the deadline.
This Date in History
Given the more important events going on in our nation, it seems appropriate to have a non-baseball version of TDIH today to connect us with our world at large:
1955: Emmett Till, a teenager from Chicago, was abducted from near his Uncle’s home in Mississippi by two white men. He was later found brutally tortured and killed. Till’s shocking murder was a catalyzing event for the burgeoning Civil Rights movement. Medgar Evers, a field officer of the NAACP in Jackson, Mississippi, urged NAACP leadership to get involved in the case. NAACP field officers led a thorough search for witnesses to the abduction spurring FBI involvement. No justice would be had, though. Till’s murderers were ultimately acquitted causing widespread outrage and, ultimately, some gathering momentum for a movement for racial justice.
1963: As the culminating event of the March on Washington for Jobs and Freedom Martin Luther King, Jr. gave his landmark “I Have a Dream” Speech in front of an estimated 250,000 people. The March on Washington was a show of support for President Kennedy’s recently proposed Civil Rights legislation — legislation that the events of the day played a key role in helping bring to pass. Near the end of his speech, King departed from prepared remarks when singer Mahalia Jackson urged him “tell them about the dream, Martin!” leading him to improvise one of the greatest articulations of racial justice and the American Dream ever heard. [As an aside, my cousin, upon going to college in the early 70s, gave me a box of 45s — all classic rock and pop hits from the 60s: Motown, the Beatles, the Stones, Sam and Dave. But one record in the collection was different. It was also a million seller, but it wasn’t a song. It was a recording of the “I Have a Dream” speech and listening on a scratchy little 45 player was my first experience of that extraordinary vision.] The main body of King’s speech took as its theme the centennial of the passing of the Emancipation Proclamation. Standing on the steps of Lincoln’s Memorial he noted early in the speech, “one hundred years later, the Negro still is not free.” It’s been almost sixty years more more since he spoke those words.
1968: The Chicago Police Department chased and beat anti-War demonstrators across Grant Park and the streets of Chicago following the Democratic National Convention’s nomination of Senator Hubert Humphrey for President. It was one of the wildest and most frightening moments in a turbulent and violent year that had seen the assassinations of Martin Luther King, Jr and Bobby Kennedy over the previous five months. Mayor Richard Daley was determined to make a show of force as approximately 10,000 anti-war demonstrators descended on Chicago for a concurrent “Festival of Life” organized by the Yippies and the Students for a Democratic Society. Daley called in the Illinois National Guard and together with the CPD put some 20,000 military and police personnel on the streets of the city. On August 28 what has since been referred to as a “police riot” broke out, featuring indiscriminate brutal beatings and so much tear gas that Senator Humphrey felt its affects in the upper floors of the Conrad Hilton Hotel.
2008: Before approximately 85,000 people at Invesco Field in Denver, Senator Barack Obama accepted the Democratic nomination for President. In his acceptance speech Senator Obama called the promise of America: “the idea that we are responsible for ourselves, but that we also rise and fall as one nation, the fundamental belief that I am my brother's keeper, I am my sister's keeper.” On November 4, Obama would make history by winning the Presidency with 53% of the popular vote and 365 electoral votes.
By the way, if anyone’s looking for a book recommendation of late, I just finished reading Ta-Nehisi Coates’ Between the World and Me which I’ve been shamefully late in getting to, and it’s an astonishingly powerful, thoughtful, provocative and evocative work. I highly recommend it to all.
Stay safe everyone. And take care of each other.
Great stuff Roger. If you’re looking for more good reads take a look at Ibram X Kendi’s Stamped From the Beginning
Does Chris Shaw as a throw in get the Padres or anyone else an outfitter/PH?