New Draft Combine Just Part of Changing Landscape
"One Baseball" is taking several significant steps forward
While I’m having a blast taking deeper looks at some under the radar prospects (and if you have any you’d specifically like me to write about, please feel free to mention them in the comments), I think I should take a pause on that project to expand on some of the things that Carlos Collazo briefly touched upon in this week’s podcast. We went through a lot of information pretty quickly in that half hour, and I think it’s worthwhile to dive into some of the newer developments in greater detail.
While a lot of the attention on the 2021 draft focuses on traditional looks at players that are missing this year — the 2020 college and high school seasons, last year’s Cape Cod and Great Woods Leagues, etc. etc — there are also a lot of significant new looks being added for players, scouts, and anyone who loves the draft. These are going to change the draft landscape moving forward in significant ways and they all fit under the umbrella of Rob Manfred’s “One Baseball” strategy that we’ve discussed here many times over the last year.
Pre-Draft Combines
The most recent new additions to the draft process were just announced last week. MLB and USA Baseball are teaming up to host a series of events this summer including a pre-draft combine for high school and college players.
USA Baseball has long been the dominant player in amateur baseball in the country. They serve as the national governing body for all levels of the amateur game, setting standards for equipment, health guidance, and other crucial issues. USA Baseball is also the entity that organizes, trains, and hosts virtually every American national team that participates in international competitions — the Olympics, World Cup events, Pan-American Games, you name it. All of those Team USA events I’ve mentioned in various prospect's amateur resumes — collegiate national team, 18 and Under, 15 and Under, etc. etc — they’re all the product of USA Baseball’s dedication and devotion to advancing amateur baseball in this country. Which makes them a terrific partner organization for MLB and, along with the NCAA, probably the most important partner for the success of MLB’s “One Baseball” initiative.
The pre-draft combine will take place this year between June 20-28 at Team USA’s national complex in Cary, North Carolina. The combine will be a voluntary event and free of charge to players. As reported by Baseball America, the combine “features top high school and college baseball prospects, as identified by MLB Clubs, who will have the opportunity to participate in a series of medical and performance assessments as well as educational programming designed to prepare them for a career in professional baseball.”
The medical portion of the combine has long been a wish for teams who rightly fear committing a top draft pick to a pitcher who may have some underlying health concerns. The Astros 2014 draft was famously thrown into disarray by medical issues raised during the physical of the #1 overall pick Brady Aiken. The Atlanta Braves’ top pick in 2018, Carter Stewart, was another player whose physical ended up scuttling a deal. However, players (and their advisors) are quite rightly reticent to share medical information with teams beforehand, fearing that hitherto unknown issues raised by an MRI would be used as negotiating leverage by teams. Navigating those tricky waters will probably be the toughest part of making the combines successful, as players will need to be appropriately incentivized to willingly take part in pre-draft medical examinations.
The combine will also involve skills and performance assessments and an educational component meant to help young players navigate the life changes that becoming a professional ballplayer entail. For high school players, the combine will also include a showcase tournament that will take place in front of the industry scouts from June 20-26. The top 88 high school players eligible for the draft (as determined by MLB and USA Baseball) will be offered an invitation to participate in this eight-game showcase.
I’ve noted before that the many for-profit operators in the high school showcase circuit are one of the most pernicious elements in amateur baseball and are a major regressive factor in the opportunity to play professional baseball. One reason — not the only one, certainly, but an important one — why the percentage of African Americans joining pro ball continues to go down is the degree to which “pay for play” dominates youth baseball in this country. By holding major invitational events that are free of charge, MLB can play a significant role in turning this trend around if they choose to make it priority. We’ll see, in time, whether increased opportunity and access to the game is a result of these endeavors, but it certainly could be and I, for one, hope that we’ll see more diverse participation in the game among the nation’s youth going forward thanks to this partnership.
PDP League
Another element of the MLB/USA Baseball partnership will be the return of the Prospect Development Pipeline (PDP) League this summer for the high school class of 2022. The PDP League was originally launched in 2019 in Bradenton, FL, but, like most everything else, it was shut down in 2020 due to the Coronavirus. This year, it too will be held at the USA Baseball complex in Cary, featuring 96 top high school players for the 2022 draft. The PDP League will take place post-draft, from July 22 to August 1 and will essentially function as a tryout camp for the 18U Team USA. You may recall that Kyle Harrison really put himself on the draft map with his work for Team USA in international play last year. It’s a huge opportunity for the young players — seriously, look how much fun these kids get to have:
As with the combine, this event is free to players. It’s also worth noting that the work of Area Scouts, the least glamorous position in baseball, is the fundamental building block of the invitation lists for these events. Consequently, you’d think it would behoove MLB teams (and MLB itself) to stop downsizing their amateur scouting departments.
MLB Draft League
Finally, this summer should see the debut of the new MLB Draft League, one of several newly configured leagues that will incorporate former minor league locations into part of the reconfigured baseball landscape. While MLB transformed the Appalachian League into a summer wood bat league for rising college Freshman and Sophomores, much of the old New York—Pennsylvania league has been converted into the MLB Draft league. The Draft League will be a 68-game wood bat league that will run from late May into August for draft eligible players.
While high school players are eligible to participate, it is expected that the majority of players will be draft-eligible college juniors and seniors. Effectively, this league will offer a final chance for draft- eligible players to boost their stock in the weeks leading up to the draft. For players who were injured or who suffered through poorer-than-expected performances for their college teams, the MLB Draft league could offer a shot at draft redemption. The league could also provide Junior College players with the opportunity to square off against D1 players before the industry’s scouts.
For all of these groups, a strong performance in the league could well have major impact on their lives — it’s worth keeping in mind that the difference between being drafted in, for example, the 6th vs. the 4th rounds is frequently several hundred thousand dollars.
Carlos mentioned this briefly in the podcast, but one of the major questions hanging over the MLB Draft League is whether players will stay with their teams following the draft. With league play continuing into August, this could have a major impact on the sustainability of the league as a business (a major question for minor league owners who have agree to take part in the venture). Mass defections of players who have, successfully or not, finished stating their draft case could lead to equally mass defections of fans in the second half of the campaigns. Or possibly, the good folks of Mahoning Valley or Williamsport will continue enjoying a summer’s day at the ballpark as long as there are games to be played (this would seem to be MLB’s position).
Of course, we can’t talk about this year’s draft without noting that, once again, it will involve far fewer players getting their opportunity to become professional ballplayers. The draft will be no shorter than 20 rounds, but likely won’t be much longer than that, either. And I think there’s a strong chance this change is going to become permanent with the new CBA. That means that, compared to the recent 40 round drafts (and drafts have been much longer than that in past years), some 500 or so new player per year will go undrafted. How many of those players might have turned out to be Matt Duffy-type success stories we’ll never know.
MLB’s “solution” to this part of the draft cycle also includes some of the former-minor league clubs. The old Pioneer League is being re-structured into one of the new Partner Leagues with MLB — and Independent League operating with non-affiliated players but operating with some marketing and sponsorship support from MLB. MLB has also established Partner Leagues with several of the existing Indy Leagues — the Atlantic League, the Frontier League, the American Association. But unlike those traditional Indy Leagues, the Pioneer League is going to cater specifically to young graduating college players who went unselected in the draft. The league hopes then to be a showcase that can springboard some of these players into contracts with major league clubs. All of the Partner Leagues will include analytical data tracking technology from Trackman, that MLB teams will be able to access and monitor.
While MLB is providing some initial investment money in this league, it will not be responsible for the long-term financial sustainability. That responsibility will be placed firmly on the Pioneer League owners. There is no doubt that, from MLB’s perspective, this is shifting the financial burden of providing for players who are perceived to be unlikely big leaguers onto the small-time owners of the Pioneer League. If players are able to use the league to show that “they belong” in affiliated baseball, only then will major league teams make a financial commitment. It’s a cynical arrangement, for sure, and the players will not be receiving the same level of care, training, and facilities, but at least it is providing some small path that these undrafted players can still hope to follow to their dreams.
A step down even from there is the new four-team independent league that the Salem-Keizer Volcanoes just announced this week: The Mavericks League (incorporating the name of the old Portland Mavericks team that was featured in the documentary “The Battered Bastards of Baseball.”). Like the Pioneer League, this new league will also provide an opportunity for undrafted and recently released players to continue playing. But, as it is not a Partner League with MLB, these players will be outside MLB’s data collection technology — they’ll have to attract attention the old fashioned way, with just the loud sound off their bats.
Taken all together, these new additions to the draft landscape, along with the unprecedented impacts of COVID-19, are likely to make this one of the most intriguing and unpredictable draft seasons in memory. And, from my point of view, these changes do offer a wealth of potential benefits for youngsters hoping to take that step into a professional baseball career. Good luck to them all!
New Prospect Rankings!
The Top 100 (or 101) lists have been coming out fast and furious lately! We talked about the Baseball America rankings recently in detail, and I touched upon the Baseball Prospectus’ rankings during my podcast conversation with Jeffrey Paternostro. In the past couple of days, we’ve also seen Top 100 lists published from Keith Law at The Athletic and Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo at MLB.
There’s not a ton of difference between these lists — many of them give the Giants a fourth top 100 player (usually Hunter Bishop) and the exact placements are moved around a scooch. Law placed Luciano much lower than the others, though his writeup still noted that he saw Luciano as a potential superstar and just wanted to see some full-season time from him. Law also was the only outlet to include LHP Seth Corry in his list.
To help you keep track of all of the new lists, here’s a handy-dandy chart. Just remember a few simple rules: 1) these lists are a snapshot in time, reflecting industry views’ of current value but they don’t predict the future; 2) there’s more separation at the top end than in the back; 3) exact placement isn’t as important as inclusion, especially the further down you go; and 4) opinions vary.
Thank you for a really informative article Roger. In the spirit of “way too early predictions” do you concur with Prospects Live prediction that the Giants will go with another outfielder in Round1? I’m thinking pitching depth is more important (perhaps Jordan Wicks or Richard Fitts). Also, do you think we’ll go for North Carolina’s Luca Tresh or Jose Torres is the second or third round for more of a Wolfpack reunion?