On the virtues inherent in "Mauricio Dubon: CF"

From small things mama, big things one day come

At long last, with the shortened season in its waning days, Statcast this week unfurled the 2020 leaderboard for its defensive metric, Outs Above Average (OAA). And —calloo! callay! — the numbers cast a positive light on the Giants defense. Evan Longoria, Brandon Crawford, Mauricio Dubon, and Brandon Belt all take their place among the league’s best defenders at their positions. What’s that you say? “Giants’ Defense: a positive!?! Surely not!”

Now you’re probably remembering the Giants defense from such classic ditties as: failing to step on the base for an easy out, losing routine fly balls, or the ever popular, throwing the ball to nowhere. But somewhere along the way, a sneaky change began which stabilized the team D and even turned it into something of a strength.

A first, major, step in the right direction came early on when Evan Longoria and Brandon Belt returned from their season opening stints on the IL. Absent two of the steadiest gloves on the team, the Giants had to turn to lineups that featured Wilmer Flores or Donovan Solano at 3b — exigencies that did not turn out well!

But even with the return of Longo and Belt, the Giants were forced to run some sub-standard defensive lineups out on the field. With Mike Yastrzemski getting the lion’s share of starts in CF early on, Jaylin Davis in the minors and Austin Slater on the IL, the Giants were often forced to run Alex Dickerson, Hunter Pence, even Darin Ruf out to RF — defensive malfeasance which was all too frequently exposed by the opposition.

Meanwhile, the infield was booting easy grounders with such profligacy that even Brandon Crawford got in on the act. And when Crawford wasn’t on the field (which was often), mental errors proliferated everywhere, giving away bases with wild abandon, undermining a pitching staff that had issues of its own to deal with.

But on August 16, Manager Gabe Kapler rolled out a change that was to have an extraordinary domino effect throughout the lineup. You might be forgiven if you failed to notice something momentous was happening that day. It was, after all, the day the Giants were slaughtered 15-3 by the A’s, finishing off possibly the most embarrassing three-game series in Giants’ history and dropping their record to 8-15.

But, indeed, something momentous had happened: that was the day Mauricio Dubon became the Giants’ everyday CF. There was a soft open to this rollout. In each of the previous two games of the A’s series, Dubon had finished the night in CF after starting it at SS. That presaged the change. Prior to that August afternoon, in his 19 games played on the year, Dubon had started in CF just twice. He had played some CF in some part of seven games, while appearing at 2b or SS in eight games apiece. Six times he had played two different positions in a game. But since August 16, Dubon has appeared nowhere on the field other than CF and he has started 18 of the Giants 25 games at that position. Outside of his four game “mental reset” near the end of August, Dubon has been a nightly presence in CF.

To understand why this one change had so many positive benefits, let’s return to Statcast’s Outs Above Average metric. Using the data systems installed in all 30 MLB stadiums (prior to 2020 this was the Trackman system; this year it transitioned to Hawk-Eye), the position and movements of every player on the field are tracked, collected, measured and analyzed. The speed at which players move, the efficiency of their movement, the strength of their throws, all of this is measured by Statcast. And after enough of a sample size has been collected, the system gives us OAA. Simply put, this measures the likelihood of success of any defensive play. So, for example, if major league OFs turn a ball in which they must cover, say, 100 feet in 4 seconds time into an out 50% of the time, then an OF who gathers an out on such a play is credited with +.5 of an out and an OF who fails to do so is given -.5. And so on.

So why was moving Dubon to CF so significant? Let’s take the dominoes one by one:

1. Mauricio Dubon turned out to be really good at CF!

You probably figured this was an important step, right? Dubon showed flashes of comfort with the new position almost immediately.

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Mauricio Dubón had not played in the outfield as a pro before 2020 with the @SFGiants. Keep that in mind as you watch this highlight.

But beyond the highlight plays, Dubon’s speed has really worked as an asset in CF even as he is learning how to run good routes. As a CF, Dubon has given the Giants 4 OAA — which would rank him among the best 15 fielders in the major leagues had he played no other position this year. Though his routes grade out a little substandard, his reaction time is elite and his burst time is well above average, giving him, according to Statcast, a fantastic 1.7 feet above average in his jumps. That’s in the 83rd percentile of OF jumps and his OAA is in the 93rd percentile for all major league OF.

2. Mauricio Dubon wasn’t that great at SS

This is perhaps secret domino 1A, but one of the benefits of permanently placing Dubon in CF was removing the time he’d spent spelling Crawford at SS. Remember I said that Dubon would be among the best 15 fielders in baseball if he’d played nowhere else but CF? As it happens he’s slightly lower than that (though still in the top 30) — and the reason is that in his relatively short time at SS he was worth -1.7 OAA (or in that case, Outs Below Average). Almost entirely that came from plays to his right, likely caused by his arm being a little short for the long throw from the hole. For the image below on Dubon’s OAA page, I’m hovering on the big blue block on the right flank of SS position.

3. Mike Yastrzemski’s speed was a liability in CF

Of course, there are issues that you can see easily in the course of a game and issues that are mostly hidden from sight on our TV video feed. That is what makes the Statcast data so valuable. Any Giants fan watching the games knows that having our beloved Hunter Pence in RF in 2020 was a bad idea. But it’s less intuitive to think that having Mike Yastrzemski — who looks so smooth, so polished, so capable — in CF was also problematic.

But Statcast assures us that this is true. While Yaz gets good reads and runs efficient routes to balls, the now 30 year old is relatively slew-footed for a CF. By Statcast’s measurements Yaz has been worth a yowlful -5 OAA, including -3 OAA as a CF. Yikes!

This is a great example of how things that you don’t bother you on the TV feed (e.g., an OF playing a ball on a hop) can matter a whole lot more than the things that drive you nuts (e.g., an infielder booting a ball). Another element of the OAA leaderboard is a number for Runs Prevented and by this measurement, Yaz has been the worst defensive player on the team with a -4 runs prevented. This makes sense when you keep in mind, as Tom Tango has written, that plays not made by Outfielders are frequently more damaging than plays not made by Infielders. If a SS doesn’t get to a ball it’s normally a single; but if a CF doesn’t get to a ball it can quickly become a double or triple. So range matters even more in OF than it does in Infielders when it comes to run prevention — especially in these launch angle driven times.

For what it’s worth, Fangraphs’ UZR system doesn’t dislike Yaz’ defense as much as Statcast — particularly in RF. Still, Yaz’ move out of CF was one of the biggest benefits the Giants received from Dubon’s ascension to the position. And though the metrics don’t love him in RF either for the same reasons (instincts: great; range: substandard), he’s better than most of the options, which brings us to….

4. The Giants sent too many players to RF who shouldn’t ought to have been there

Statcast doesn’t have much to say about this, since none of the prime offenders accumulated enough of a sample size in RF to get a print-out. But let’s just say that our warm-fuzzy memory banks are already well on their way to scrubbing Hunter Pence’ 2020 time in RF away, and Darin Ruf’s single, two-inning stint in the position is something we should never speak of again. Dickerson, like Pence, is too lovable to build too much agita over, but it’s for the best that none of these guys is manning RF these days.

5. Brandon Crawford is once again an elite SS!

This one ties together with #2 above. Mauricio Dubon was a little short at ShortStop. Donvan Solano was darn near unplayable there. And in the early going, Brandon Crawford wasn’t so spectacular either! Signs of the Apocalypse! (or time doing its inevitable work). Defensive metrics hadn’t been loving Brandon for the last year or so actually, and in the opening weeks as he booted an unusually high amount of plays, it was easy to think his best days were behind him for good. Crawford began the year in a fairly strict platoon situation, starting 13 of the Giants first 23 games and entering mid-game in three others. Perhaps it was the lack of rhythm or everyday feel for the game that resulted in the shockingly high five errors he made in those early weeks. Or perhaps getting a little giddyup back in his offensive numbers helped him relax.

But whichever it was, his heart or his shoes, the simple fact remains that when Dubon became the everyday CF, Brandon Crawford became once again the de facto everyday SS. And as he’s settled back into the everyday workload, over the last month of play he’s been every bit the Gold Glove SS we remember from his hey day. By Statcast, Crawford is the Giants best fielder and one of the true elite defensive players in the NL. Credited with 4 OAA, Crawford is situated in the 96th percentile of major league defenders. His OAA is the equal of Fernando Tatis, Jr., Trevor Story, and Francisco Lindor despite fewer defensive opportunities than any of the three — and he actually grades out slightly above all three going to his right or back on the ball in his famous flights of popup fancy.

Brandon, it is VERY good seeing you at your best again!

SF Giants on NBCS @NBCSGiants

Brandon Crawford 😯

6. Donovan Solano is just fine so long as you keep him on the right side of the infield

This one maybe could be folded into the above but it’s an important point in its own right. While Solano grades out as the second worst fielder on the team overall (-3 OAA), the damage to his metric has come entirely from the left side of the infield (-3 OAA at SS and -1 at 3b). But kept on the right side at 2b, Solano has proved a perfectly capable fielder, grading out with 1 OAA in his time at the keystone. That’s important because his bat has been crucial to the team’s offensive success. With Wilmer Flores similarly needing a place in the lineup (and causing even more havoc on the defense), Solano’s ability to avoid the DH slot by being a creditable 2b was crucial.

…

This isn’t quite domino #7, but I would be remiss if I didn’t also say that credit is due to Kapler for all of this. You may recall that in early August, I wrote a post here questioning whether lack of comfort was causing the Giants’ early defensive meltdowns. And in that post, I noted that among the major critiques of Kapler’s time in Philadelphia, was “he changes the lineup too much…he plays too many players out of position.” And I even went so far as to speculate whether Kapler’s proclivity for moving chess pieces around the board was more feature than bug in Farhan Zaidi’s decision to bring him to San Francisco to replace Bruce Bochy.

Whether that was true or not at the time, what we’ve seen since is absolutely evidence of intellectual flexibility, creativity, and adjustment on the fly. For the first three-and-a-half weeks of the season the Giants rolled out a different defensive alignment every night and quite often shifted it again within games. From August 16 onwards, the defensive unit has been mostly consistent night in and night out (with some light platooning in LF and 1b) and the overall performance has been dramatically improved. That’s a great job of managing to the talent on hand and putting players in a position to succeed. It might not be the plan he had for the team in July — it might not be the plan in 2021 — but he understood at their nadir that this was a path to greater success for this team. And the results have been a 15-10 record with generally clean play since then. That’s good managing!

And so there you have it — with one simple move, the Giants vastly upgraded their defense in CF and SS, stabilized things in RF, while finding ways to keep all of Solano’s, Flores’, Dickerson’s, and Ruf’s valuable bats in the lineup without undermining the Run Prevention unit. That’s a great little move!

And best of all, it allows me to finish things off with a Dave Edmunds allusion! Sing it, Dave!

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This Date in History

2007: San Jose staved off elimination in the Cal League Championship Series with a 6-1 win over Lake Elsinore. Pablo Sandoval came up with a huge hit early, blasting a 3-run homer in the bottom of the 2nd. Current Farm Director Kyle Haines also had a big night, providing two run-scoring doubles. Though starter Darren Sack gave the Giants just 3 innings, Ronnie Ray provided relief with four shutout innings. The win evened the series at 2 games apiece and the following night San Jose would bash its way to its second Cal League Championship of the Century, winning Game 5, 7-1.

2009: Six walks in the 8th inning helped San Jose turn a taut 4-3 lead into a 12-3 laugher. That gave the Giants the deciding 5th game of the divisional series and advanced them to the Cal League championship series for the third time in five seasons. Though much of the powerful 2009 team — Buster Posey, Brandon Crawford, Madison Bumgarner — had gone on to higher levels, San Jose still had plenty of firepower left. The starting lineup included 8 players who would appear in the major leagues. That included Conor Gillaspie who had 3 hits and broke a scoreless tie with a 5th inning HR. After surviving a five-game scare from Bakersfield, San Jose would dispatch High Desert in just three games to take the title once again.

2015: With an 11 inning triumph on the road in Visalia, San Jose took an epic five-game divisional series and advanced to the Cal League championship. After losing every series they had played against the Rawhide over the previous two and half years, the series looked done when San Jose lost the first two games in Visalia. But they managed back-to-back walkoff victories when they returned home, coming back from a 4-0 deficit in Game 3 and surviving 13 innings to win Game 4. That sent the series back to Visalia for a deciding fifth game. Sam Coonrod, Tyler Rogers, and Dan Slania each allowed a late inning run to allow Visalia to come back from a 5-2 deficit. But in the 11th, Angel Villalona hit his second consecutive game-winning, extra-innings homer and Ray Black shut the door with 2 strikeouts in the bottom of the 11th, preventing a dominant Visalia team from advancing to the championship series. San Jose would run out of steam (and fresh arms) in the final series, but the victory over Visalia made the season feel like a triumph nonetheless.

Not Quite This Date in History!

September 17, 2019: Caleb Baragar threw 5 scoreless innings and three relievers completed the shutout, giving Sacramento the AAA Championship over the International League champion Columbus Clippers, 4-0. Despite fielding a lineup that barely resembled the roster that had taken the River Cats to a division title, Sacramento swept the PCL Championship series over Round Rock and provided a cherry on top with the AAA Championship. Baragar, who had started the year in San Jose and spent the bulk of it in Richmond, was promoted to Sacramento for the post-season and came up huge. The left-hander won a deciding Game 5 against Las Vegas in the semi-final series and finished the year as the winning pitcher against Columbus — possibly the last game of his minor league career! What a ride.