Sifting through the twitter machine today as fates cross paths on the transaction wire. Let’s create a mosaic, shall we:
The zero sum game that often is major league opportunity. With Evan Longoria and Brandon Belt returning from the IL, Jaylin Davis and Joe McCarthy head to Sacramento, taking their combined 2 hits (both Davis’) and 11 strikeouts (equally shared) with them. Meanwhile, Mike Yastrzemski and Donovan Solano, barely blips on the news wire when they were first picked up, are conquering heroes, purveyors of joy, and two of the hottest hitters in MLB.
Let’s talk about the fun ones first, shall we?
Good fortune makes for good legacies. When Brian Sabean gave his famous “I am not an idiot” quote, he was confident that he would achieve his aims in the Matt Williams trade. Aims that Farhan Zaidi would surely appreciate — create depth throughout the lineup, diversify payroll risk, find marginal upgrades around the edges of the roster that could collectively create more impact than one star player could on his own. I am absolutely positive, however, that Sabean never once thought to himself — not in his secret heart of hearts or his most feverish midnight dreams — that Jeff Kent was actually the single best player in the trade and would soon be on a Hall of Fame track (yes. put him in). He didn’t think he would win the trade because Kent and Williams had a Freak Friday exchange as their planes crossed paths over American skies. Good fortune makes good legacies.
Farhan Zaidi picked up Mike Yastrzemski in a deal that was minor even by Zaidi’s standards. Alex Pavlovic’ sardonic coda to his tweet reporting the deal suggested the impact it had on our collective consciousness at the time. Zaidi gave Yaz a shot at the majors only after burning through Connor Joe, Michael Reed, Gerardo Parra, Tyler Austin, Yangervis Solarte, Mike Gerber, Steven Duggar, Mac Williamson, Brandon Belt, and even, yes, Steven Vogt in his attempts to fix the bottomless hole of corner OF production. Six weeks later, Yaz was informed he was returning to AAA Sacramento. But before he could leave town, Alex Dickerson’s back tightened up and the Giants decided they didn’t want to be caught short-handed in the OF heading into a Coors Field series. On July 15th in the first game at Coors he homered; the next night he did the same. On August 16 he hit 3 HR in one night in Arizona. Over that month of extended liberty Yastrzemski had hit .324/.377/.721 and raised his OPS by .198 points. By the end of the year he had single-handedly justified “The Churn.”
Mike Yastrzemski spent parts of five separate seasons in AA Bowie. In nearly 1100 AA plate appearances, he TOTALED 22 home runs — never more than six in a season. In those five seasons, the only time he posted an offensive line BETTER than league average, came in a 33 game stretch in 2016. In 2018, in his final appearance in Bowie, he hit just .202/.276/.327 in 27 games after having been sent back down from AAA. Trey Wilson, who watched him play in each of those seasons, saw little that separated him from his AA contemporaries. He was, by all appearances, a defeated player at the end of his chain. Though he did consistently post strong walk rates, there was absolutely nothing in his statistical profile to suggest even a AAA breakout coming, much less that he would suddenly morph into an All Star level hitter (And I don’t know about you, but I’m already regretting the loss of an All Star game in 2020 to cheer him in).
Was it a hitting lab that did it? A private tutor? A new approach? The new rabbit ball? Or just the fresh potential of a new start and clean slate that changed his stars? Did the Giants know something or were they in the right place at the right time?
At least Yastrzemski (no doubt due to the famous name) received some notice when the Giants traded for him. Solano didn’t even get that much — a google search on “Giants sign Donovan Solano” returns only his Baseball-Reference page. There was virtually no notice of his signing outside of Baseball America’s minor league transaction ticker. He’d been a minor league free agent no fewer than five times — the first of those coming nearly a decade ago in 2011. He first reached AAA in 2009.
When Solano was in A ball, he posted an Iso (Isolated Power, a measure of extra bases accumulated per hit) of just .036. His 1b coach might have been excused for thinking he needed a map and a personal guide to second base on his rare extra base hits. He hit his first professional home run in the fourth year of his career. In his sixth year, he let loose with a fusillade — the 4th, 5th, 6th, and 7th home runs of his career! He was 21 at the time and only once over the next decade did he exceed that total.
He spent four years bouncing up and down between MLB and AAA with the Marlins — first giving Miami encouraging returns (1.2 WAR in 2012!) and then gradually less so (-0.8 WAR in 2015!). Although he had a 9 game call-up with the Yankees in September of 2016, it appeared he had long since established himself as a 4A type — insurance depth for the middle of the infield. A 30-year old version of Abiatal Avelino.
What changed? He passed through the two largest purveyors of Magic Pixie Dust™ in the current development world (Yankees and Dodgers) immediately before getting to the Giants, and posted the best years of his career for them. Did they unlock something in him? Was it age and experience? The perfect combination of understanding his swing, accumulated baseball knowledge, and a slighter slower than normal decline down the aging curve? Tagging after Zaidi from the Dodgers to the Giants, Solano has blossomed into something possibly even more unexpected than Yastrzemski. In 250 PA with the Giants Solano has hit .345, posted a 129 wRC+ and is, as of this morning, leading the NL in average, slugging, doubles, and RBIs. He’s also the owner of this hilarious Statcast chart in which his hard hit rate and exit velocity appear to be totally disjoined from his expected rate of production. The virtue of near-constant, solid, contact.
Yastrzemski and Solano amazingly dominate the offensive leaderboards a week into the season (Sustainable!), and generally the pair of 30-somethings (in Yaz’ case he still has another three weeks left in his 20s) represent nearly everything that has been right and good about Zaidi’s trolling through the waiver wires. Under-the-radar moves that came with virtually no burden of expectations and produced production — and more importantly FUN — beyond anyone’s wildest dreams. Good fortune makes good legacies. Clearing space for opportunities can open wondrous new doors.
Perhaps the low expectations are an important part of their stories. On the other side of the coin, we have players that we’ve constantly been told the Giants were were excited about. The guys who have been hyped a bit. A stream of roster-machination articles from the beat writers over the winter, spring, and into summer camp have come with a coda: “don’t forget about Joe McCarthy, the Giants really like the left-handed OF.” While a google search on articles for Solano’s original signing doesn’t produce any results, “Giants excited about Jaylin Davis” surely does.
It’s hard to find a podcast interview or article with Kapler, Zaidi, or Scott Harris from summer camp that didn’t specifically reference Davis and the “long runway” they hoped to provide him with this year. Now, he’s faced with trying to work his way back to the majors, having produced one memorable home run and six strikeouts against no walks in 12 PA (17 strikeouts in 59 PA going back to September).
Possibly the most surprising element of The Churn as a process is how quickly the Giants have moved on from players who they’ve previously put such vocal energy into promoting. I posted this note on twitter yesterday and it’s a sad tale, a heartbreak in miniature:
That, of course, is a list of all the position players in Giants’ history who have gotten at least one plate appearance with the franchise without ever reaching base safely (excluding the currently active Chadwick Tromp). Not a hit. Not a walk. Not even a HBP. Eleven players in 62 years. And astonishingly, more than a third of them have come in the last seven months of Giants’ baseball. Interestingly, Reed and McCarthy have the most PA of anybody on that list by a significant margin 8 and 10 respectively.
Here’s another interesting group — players who been in an Opening Day lineup with the Giants who have accumulated the fewest career hits with the franchise:
Ken Rudolph (44)
Mark DeRosa (42)
Fran Healy (41)
Austin Jackson (36)
Casey McGehee (27)
Jim King (12)
Brian Bocock (11)
Conner Joe (1)
Michael Reed (0)
Joe McCarthy (0)
There are some names that will live in infamy among Giants’ fans — famously poor decisions that have earned eternal enmity. Jim King was part of a comically bad 1958 first ever Giants lineup that included raft of short-term Giants. Mark DeRosa was NOT the free agent pick up who would boost the Giants’ 2010 offense. Casey McGehee was NOT the solution to filling the Panda-shaped hole in 2015. Ken Rudolph and Fran Healy were the beginning a long history of revolving Catchers for the franchise.
But noticeably most of the names on this list had long major league careers — even if the Giants’ portion of it was short and disappointing. Healy even brought franchise icon Greg “Moonman” Minton to the Giants on his way out the door. Bocock, who was a light-hitting, slick fielding player in A ball, was notoriously rushed to an Opening Day lineup because of Sabean’s failure to anticipate that the team might need a backup plan for literally the oldest everyday Shortstop in major league history (41 year old Omar Vizquel).
But by far the shortest (thus far) major league careers on this list make up 17% of the Opening Day lineups since Farhan Zaidi became club President. Zaidi came to a team that have suffered from dismal OF production in 2018, immediately declared the issue “low hanging fruit,” took part in a failed run at free agent Bryce Harper, and then in the final week of Spring Training appeared to suddenly realize he’d forgotten to pick up that low hanging fruit at the store that winter! Waiver wire acquirees Connor Joe and Michael Reed were shunted into an Opening Day lineup a week after joining the franchise, and two weeks later were shunted back out again — having produced 1 hit, 1 walk, and 11 strikeouts in 24 plate appearances. This year, McCarthy joined the sad group, 5 Ks, 0 hits, 0 BB in 10 PA. Good luck on those Sporcle quizzes, future Giants fans!
For a vocal minority of Giants fans, “Connor Joe McCarthy” will be a short-hand for “Zaidi Era” until success comes. And while I find the venom directed at the players themselves extremely unseemly, there’s a legitimate question of player evaluation at play here — both in the coming and the going. Why so high on these players? And why was the leash so short, when small sample sizes are the bane of the analytically minded? One could argue that McCarthy was a Bocock-like response to an unexpected injury. But, again, we’ve heard for months that the org was high on McCarthy and his approach at the plate. Even with Belt, they had interest in seeing how his left-handed bat would play in a lineup. He did not, sadly, redeem their faith, seeing just 39 pitches in 10 PA. Farhan himself probably places little emphasis on an Opening Day lineup versus any other — but that short-sells the psychic weight of Opening Days in the fan’s imagination.
Without trying to over-reach for any grand conclusions here, one trend bears watching. The Front Office has made very clear its preferences for players who control the strike zone as acquisition targets. That is McCarthy’s greatest strength going back to college at UVA. That was Joe’s strength and Reed’s. It explains NRI to Chadwick Tromp and Tyler Heineman and Rob Brantly. But we’re finding that controlling strike zone against lower levels of competition doesn’t always translate to major league pitching. Instead, we’ve seen players renowned for their patience in the minors finding themselves in perpetual Pitcher’s Counts trying to fend off ungodly kill pitches with two strikes and not enough weapons. McCarthy K’d 5 times in 10 PA. Reed 6 times in 8 PA. Joe 5 in 16. This doesn’t apply solely to recent acquisitions: Steven Duggar has never posted a walk rate lower than 11% in his minor league career but his major league walk rate is just 6%.
Control of the zone is part of the bigger puzzle, but it can’t survive on its own against major league pitching without other elements of the offensive game being in place. The ability to successfully attack, or at least fend off, edge pitches. The ability to hit quality secondary pitches — especially in this era when we’re seeing analytical trends lead more pitchers to “pitch backwards” and feature secondary pitches early in counts.
As the Giants seek players who can make them competitive now while also trying to help forge the roster of a sustainably competitive team, the found gold of Solano, Yastremski, Trevor Gott, and others is crucial and exciting. But there’s a parallel trend going on that is worth keeping an eye on — high profile failures from players the org is vocally enthusiastic about. Jaylin Davis isn’t gone for good. He’ll have more opportunities and will continue to get support from the organization. Maybe Joe McCarthy’s chances aren’t over either (though he seemed dismally ill-prepared to compete at this level). But the front office could really use a Solano-esque Win from one of their young acquisition targets — one of the guys who clearly fits their new “brand.” And for all of our sakes, 2021’s Opening Lineup should not provide us with another entry into the “Career Hits: 0” file.
This Date in History
2005: Salem-Keizer starting pitcher Sergio Romo improved his record to 4-0, allowing 2 runs in 5 innings with 7 Ks. It was Romo’s eighth start since signing as a 28th round pick, and it was the first time he’d allowed more than 1 earned run. In fact, he’d allowed just three earned runs in total prior to the game. He’d end the year with a 7-1 record, 2.75 ERA and a sparkling 65 Ks against 8 unintentional BB, earning his way to full season ball in 2006.
2006: Let’s keep the Timmy nostalgia rolling! Tim Lincecum struck out 7 in a three-inning start — the last one he’d make with Salem-Keizer — in a 1-0 shutout over Boise. Gib Hobson teamed with Lincecum on the victory, allowing just one hit over the final six innings. In all, only four of the 14 batters Lincecum faced in the NWL managed to put a ball in play. Volcanoes fans excitement would be short-lived as the Giants sought new challenges for their #1 pick. Cal League hitters had a little more success against the lithe right-hander, but not much. He’d K 48 of the 108 batters he faced with San Jose the rest of the summer.
2007: Playing in one of the most offensive environments in the country, San Jose enjoyed (I believe) the greatest inning in their history, scoring 12 runs in the top of the 7th in an 18-5 win in High Desert. Amazingly, Travis Ishikawa provided the only long ball for the Giants, but they had 11 hits in the 7th inning alone. Six different batters in the lineup reached base safely twice during the inning. DH Adam Witter doubled twice as part of a five-hit night. Antoan Richardson hit a bases loaded triple. Ishikawa homered and singled. The explosion moved the Giants to 15 games over .500 as they motored toward their 7th Cal League title in franchise history and one of four titles they would win between 2005-2010.
There’s still frustratingly little information coming out of the Giants Alternate Camp in Sacramento, but we got a few snippets of info yesterday.
Dalton Johnson talked with Kyle Haines about the Giants efforts to develop Joey Bart and Patrick Bailey together.
Baseball America’s Josh Norris talked with Marco Luciano about the swing changes he’s made with the Giants this year.
Hunter Bishop provided a health update:
And best of all, we have a highlight — though where it came from and why there isn’t more of it remains something of a mystery. But to send you off to your weekend, enjoy some of Alex Canario doubling off of Dereck Rodriguez in yesterday’s camp scrimmage:
Excellent piece diving into "The Churn". I agree, it's unfortunate that the term "Connor Joe McCarthy" sounds more like an indictment of the players than Zaidi, but it will look worse if Joe, who had a nice minor league 2019 season in AAA after leaving the Giants, and is now cancer-free, has a decent little career for the rivals rather than the Giants after the quick churn decision.