Return of the Free For All Mailbag!
After a week off to rest up the ol’ Answering muscle, the Free For All Mailbag makes its triumphant return. We have a lot of questions about promotions, questions about the difficulty of move to High A, and, of course, more injury questions (followed by more “IDK” for answers).
As always, if you enjoy what you’re reading in the Feel For All Mailbag, you’re by all means welcome to become a subscriber and get all of my There R Giants’ content.
We start off with a question left over from the end of our last mailbag, two weeks ago — and it’s a question that’s only become more pertinent with that passage of time.
Patrick Bailey has become a fascinating case for the organization. Based on the coverage by you and others as late as heading into spring training, it seems shocking that he’s already earned a Triple-A promotion. Some thought he shouldn’t even get assigned to Double-A until he mastered High-A pitching! Farhan & Co. must’ve had much more conviction about Bailey’s offensive ability than analysts did. And now, the narrative has morphed into a big league promotion this season seeming “inevitable,” in your words. What explains the gap between the Giants’ and analysts’ views of Bailey heading into the year? And more importantly, what’s the likelihood the Giants stick to the old adage of a prospect needing several hundred upper minors at-bats before reaching the bigs? I sense you’re concerned Bailey might be getting fast-tracked prematurely. Especially in light of Joey Bart’s rocky first few years in the show, I hope the Giants give Bailey ample time to refine his game without the pressure of the brightest lights.
This question was asked, if I remember correctly, in the wake of Bailey’s quick promotion to Triple A — and by the time I got around to answering it, he was already making highlights in the majors. So, maybe it makes sense to yoke it together with the following question and see what’s up here:
Any insights as to the why there seems to be a shift towards accelerating promotions in the organization? Is it new thinking led by Pete Putila joining the front office? Is it a natural outcome due to the success young players are having at higher levels of the minors? Is it driven by the need of the Major League team, not only from a need for players on the field but for want of a sellable story line to put butts in seats? I’m sure it’s all of this and more but wondering what your sense of it is from closer to the action.
I do think that the Giants have always been higher on Bailey than general perception, and there was never any chance that he was going to head back to Eugene this year. Though his general offensive numbers in the NWL were always somewhat lukewarm, the left-handed numbers were solid. More importantly, in the under the radar numbers, Bailey shone at a skill the org values most: swing decisions. Of players who had 300 PA last year, only Michael Gigliotti (15.8%) had a better chase rate than Bailey’s 18.9% (which also tells you something about why Gigliotti got a promotion to Triple A this year, too. For that matter, if you want to know why the org thought Jose Ramos could handle a jump from DSL to Low A, his 17.6% chase rate is definitely part of the story). By the end of spring training, it was pretty clear that a lot of decision makers in the front office and major league coaching staff were extremely high on him, in large part because he was viewed as the best defensive catcher in the organization.
That said, both of you are absolutely correct to point to this issue of upper minors experience. Farhan Zaidi has a very long public record of being in favor of deliberate promotions for hitters. He’s talked about making sure hitters got 500-600 PA in the upper minors (if not at each level). Just this winter I remember hearing a couple of interviews with Farhan in which he distinguished between pitching prospects (where the data could help lead you to quick promotions) and hitters (where you might be fooled by a hot streak. He made comments like that to Tim Kawakami just two or three months ago, so what gives here exactly?
Certainly, something fundamental has shifted. Fortunately, The Athletic’s Andy Baggarly asked Zaidi about this directly in the wake of Bailey’s callup. Zaidi side-stepped the notion of an organizational sea-change, instead putting things in term of general industry trends, but, in part, here’s what he had to say:
There’s always been this default notion of a-level-a-year advancement. And I think maybe there’s been a move a little bit away from that. As guys demonstrate that they can perform at a level you just kind of move them up and not have things be driven too much by historic protocols. And look, that’s not to say we had a lightbulb moment as an industry. Guys have been advanced quickly for as long as we’ve had farm systems. So it’s not a new concept. But early in this season, we’ve been pretty aggressive with promotions just feeling like guys can handle it. And it was an issue for us the last couple years not having a lot of upper-level depth.
I do think that last sentence may hold a key to why things feel different this year. There is a difference between making the developmental decision to move players from one A ball level to another when you feel they’re ready, and the decision to try to address a need on the big league level with somebody in the upper minors who can possibly contribute, even if they’re not a finished piece. Some of what we’ve seen with Bailey and Casey Schmitt has to do with exigencies. The team literally didn’t have a healthy catcher outside of Blake Sabol. Two weeks ago, there was a very real chance they could get themselves buried in the race by Memorial Day. The opportunity to change dynamics by bringing up someone like Schmitt can change the equation of Player Development thinking in those situations.
And I think, too, Zaidi’s putting the conversation in the frame of industry trends might be telling as well. If you recall, both leagues’ Rookies of the Year last year came to majors directly from Double A. Michael Harris II played just 43 games at that level before getting a call up to Atlanta, while Julio Rodriguez had finished 2021 with a 46 game stint in Double A before Seattle surprisingly put him in their Opening Day lineup last year. Atlanta doubled down on the Harris callup by reaching down to their Double A roster once again when need presented itself, calling up Vaughn Grissom, who was not exactly anybody’s Top 100 prospect, after he’d played just 22 games in Double A.
This is a copy cat business, and a team as smart as the Giants would look a little silly holding onto old ideals in the face of their competition making more daring moves work so spectacularly. And I think, if you go back and listen to my podcast last fall with Dave Fleming, one thing he said was that, from conversations with Zaidi and Farm Director Kyle Haines, he believed they’d be more aggressive in promoting players this year. “That slow play stuff isn’t working,” was, I believe, Dave’s exact quote. The majors is the finishing school and the large coaching staff and fellow players can help ease the transition for talented athletes. The time to see what they’ve got is here.
And, before ending this long answer to a very complex topic, I do quickly want to address a couple things in Kenneth’s question. I’ve gotten quite a few questions regarding the influence of new GM Pete Putila, and while I know he’s an important part of the upper level decision-making process, I do think it’s important to point out that “title inflation” is a big part of the story. Today’s GM, working under a President of Baseball Ops, is in much the same position as a Ned Coletti once was back in the old days as an Assistant GM working under Brian Sabean. Ultimately, Farhan Zaidi is the prime director of this organization, and an important change in philosophy like this is best laid at his desk and no other. And, as for the “selling a storyline to put butts in the seats” idea, I genuinely don’t believe that’s a consideration — and I’ve never heard anybody with access to the inner workings of the organization suggest that they do either. Public perception really doesn’t seem to play into baseball decisions. HOWEVER, I do think you have to figure into the equation the fact that the Baseball Operations people have been every bit as frustrated and impatient to see home grown talent impact this team as any of the fans have been, and they are as eager to see these guys succeed as anybody else.
Flurry of roster moves on Friday. Comments on what this may mean for rosters further down the chart ?
One under the radar storyline from the farm this year is that most of the affiliates have been operating with empty spots on their roster all year. Last Tuesday, when Richmond officially activated Vaun Brown, it was the first time all year that the team had had a full 28 man roster — and that was only true because Luis Matos hadn’t officially been removed from the roster yet.
I say this because I think it’s going to be hard for the org to replace some of the players that the various affiliates are losing. Sacramento now has exactly one full-time catcher (Ricardo Genovés) and one sorta, kinda part time catcher (Ford Proctor). How do you make that work exactly? I’m not sure, but I don’t see much help coming from below. Richmond started out with a catching surplus, but Brandon Martorano has long since been on the IL, and Andy Thomas tweaked his knee running earlier this week and has only DH’d since. That leaves the club with just Brett Auerbach (who has troubles of his own currently) and Rob Emery. San Jose is the only roster that seems to have three functioning catchers on it, and that’s including Thomas Gavello, who is just learning the position and has played it very sparingly.
It feels like this is the time for a minor league free agency signing or two. Or, maybe, Proctor gets much more familiar with his catcher’s gear. Possibly both, since a spate of injuries (Tyler Fitzgerald and Ismael Munguia in the past week) are limiting team roster’s versatility as well.
For the time I’ve followed prospects, the narrative has always been that the jump to AA is the most difficult. Given what we’ve seen from the Giants top prospects and other highly regarded prospects, is High A the new AA? Could that be another consequence of the elimination of short season ball and/or the lost pandemic year?
This is a question that I’ve been turning over in my mind quite a bit lately — what exactly is it about the NWL that has been causing players to trip and fall so badly upon first experiencing the level. We’ve seen high level prospects move from San Jose to Eugene in each of the last three years (Marco Luciano, Luis Matos, Grant McCray, Aeverson Arteaga) and get off to really difficult starts.
There’s certainly a degree to which weather might be part of the story — I think it absolutely was for Matos last year. But by all accounts, the skies have been glorious and mostly warm and beautiful this year, so I don’t know how much that’s playing into McCray’s and Arteaga’s early struggles. And Luciano came up in August, so it certainly had no part in his adjustment period.
Scouts have been complaining about the low standards of pitching in Low A ever since the pandemic and loss of short season ball, so that could be part of the story. They’re teeing off on wretched pitching in San Jose, and the improvement in Eugene stops them short for awhile. The part of that explanation that doesn’t quite square with me is that both the Cal League and NWL are very small, and almost entirely made up on the same organizational affiliates. The majority of pitchers that players face in Eugene are guys they saw the year before in San Jose.
So I have to say it is a pretty mysterious phenomenon that I’ve been talking with folks about to try and find some plausible theories. I don’t think it compares to the jump to the Eastern league, but it sure has caused a few really good prospects to stumble in recent years, hasn’t it?
Anything new on Jairo Pomares? The only one of my top 7 from two seasons ago not to advance.
Any update on Will Bednar? Rohan Honda (will we ever see him)?
Apparently my harangue on injury questions last week did nothing to defer folks. Sigh.
Jairo Pomares was slowed by leg and back issues in spring training and started the year in extended. While trying to recover from those issues, he strained a quad. That’s usually a good solid 4-8 week recovery, so I wouldn’t expect him soon. I’ve heard nothing on Bednar resuming pitching yet. Handa had surgery late last year, so I would assume if we see him at all this season it will be a handful of innings at best in the rookie complex.
And really, that’s going to be your answer on most injury questions going forward. We’re just two weeks away from rookie ball getting started, and that’s likely where we’ll get the first notice of players trying to work their way back to rosters for the remainder of the year. Bednar, Handa, Spencer Miles, Seth Corry, maybe even Reggie Crawford (though he seems further along), are most likely going to make their season debuts (if they have one) at the complex level — much as we saw from Cole Waites or Blake Rivera or others the past couple of seasons. So I’d recommend looking to the bottom of There R Giants’ posts over the next few months to see when guys make those long-awaited debuts.
I am optimistic and hopeful about the 2021 draft class of pitchers, especially those who show potential to be MLB starters. How do you see that group stacking up? Also maybe pitchers from other draft classes, international signees or trade acquisitions? We need dependable young (cost controlled) starters to ascend from our system. When do you see the best of this group reaching MLB?
A lot of good arms came into the org in that draft, though I’m not sure how many of them actually do stack up to be starters. Or maybe we should frame that question differently, given the interesting approach to starter development we’ve seen from the Giants this year. How many of these pitchers are guys who the Giants feel can develop into the kind of pitchers who can give the team 7-8 inning starts, the way Logan Webb, Alex Cobb, and Anthony Desclafani have. Because it feels like the Giants have a couple of different buckets — those top guys that they really expect length from, and everybody else — Alex Wood, Sean Manaea, Ross Stripling, Sean Hjelle, Sam Long — who are out there to turn a lineup over once or twice.
Think about this: Tristan Beck throws a fastball that is right about league average in terms of velo (94.2 mph), combined with a slider that can flash plus, and a curve and changeup that are not yet looking like they’re polished into big league average pitches. That’s a pretty wide repertoire, solid velo and stuff, and he throws strikes, even if it’s more control than command. A big league pitcher, but not necessarily a guy that the Giants have shown they want to step into a starter’s void. So what we’re looking for is someone who exceeds the Beck Bar — and when you think about everything Beck brings to the table, that’s a pretty high bar to cross!
Since nobody right now is going more than four innings in the organization, it’s a little hard to get a read on whether they think there are any budding Webbs in the group, but so far it appears that Mason Black, Eric Silva, and Landen Roupp are the best bets from that 2021 class. (There’s a major caveat to that, of course, in that Bednar simply hasn’t been on the field enough to get a good evaluation of him, but his showing in San Jose certainly showed some relieverish tendencies. Of course, if he’s ever physically the best version of himself again, that picture can change dramatically and quickly).
All three have plenty to work on to get to where Beck’s at currently (and of course, Beck is older and more experienced, so that’s where they should be). Black’s fastball gets away from him now and again, and he’s still searching for consistent shape on the slider. Plus, he’s shied away from throwing the change very much in games — and development of a third quality pitch is likely going to be a big part of his development story. Silva was throwing five distinct pitches in San Jose last year, but his repertoire hasn’t been quite so diverse this year, and the fastball hasn’t shown the same explosive rise it did in San Jose. Roupp, of course, just hasn’t pitched much this year, but I might put my money on him to be the best of the group, just because he brings one clear plus pitch, along with a really lively 94 mph sinker. He, too, probably needs to find that elusive third pitch to make the whole mix play up.
Outside of that group, the best starting options (outside Kyle Harrison, of course) are Keaton Winn and Carson Whisenhunt. Both of them also have that third pitch question, as Winn’s slider isn’t quite the pitch that his splitter or fastball are, and I think the same is true of Whisenhunt’s curve. But they each bring one plus pitch to the table, with a fastball that should be able to get to average or above average in quality. Does that clear the Beck Bar? In Whisenhunt’s case, likely so, because lefties just cruise through life with a bit of an advantage in this game. With Winn, I think locking in that slider shape will be a major part of his story.
Then, of course, you have those A ball guys who are just in their starting steps (Hayden Birdsong, Liam Simon, Manuel Mercedes, Gerelmi Maldonado, etc). We’ll let them develop a little while before trying to define their path.
I know it’s a small sample size, but the last couple years both Wilson and Auerbach have been up with the Giants in Spring training with both performing really well, getting high praise for both their offense and defense, but both have had very dismal averages once they season starts. You would think they faced better pitching in major league spring training games than minor league games . Are you seeing anything in particular that’s causing such poor hitting?
There are a lot of reasons why it’s dangerous to make many assumptions about spring training stats. It’s all small sample size. The level of competition is sporadic and uneven (those guys are as likely to be facing the pitching version of themselves, somebody up from the minor league camp, as they are a big leaguer). Guys are just getting their work in. The high desert air makes it harder to throw quality stuff.
And, of course, there’s this: the kids coming up from the minor league camp always have more motivation to succeed in a major league game than most anyone they’re facing off against. This is their chance to make an impression on the major league manager and his staff. The big leaguers are there to get their work in, get ready for the season, and make it to the golf course for their T-time.
But once the minor league life begins, it’s back to the grind and the challenge of being good every single day. That’s a challenge that has really caused both Auerbach and Wilson difficulties the last couple of years. But I think if you want to find out why that’s so, it’s best to stick with the obvious: the game is really hard at this level!
I just remembered the other day that Wade Meckler used to be a switch-hitter, in college and (if BRef is right) a little bit in San Jose. I also recall that he was not bad from the right side either, with a bit more power there, so I was wondering why the Giants shifted him off switch-hitting so quickly (not that it isn’t working, of course)
Honestly, Rae, I have never heard this before. The Oregon State website does list him as a switch hitter, but posts no split data that I can find, and all the video I can find of him, dating back even to high school, show him hitting only left-handed (though Meckler throws with his right-hand). I’m fairly certain he has only hit from the left side as a pro.
Anyway, it seems like every mailbag brings me a question that I have to follow up with a player on. I’ll ask him about it next time I see him and report back!
(Wade Meckler’s first Double A hit)
What lesser-known position players younger than 20 have the highest upside? Who’s the most projectable physically, or has the swing speed to really dream at?
This is a really hard question to answer, since players who are considered to be physically projectible or to have a high upside, usually aren’t lesser known — those are the guys getting the big pay checks that put them on Baseball America’s radar. BUT, it’s also true that sixteen and seventeen year old boys have a tendency to change dramatically as they age. The Reds’ incredible shortstop prosepct, Elly de la Cruz, who has an argument at being the #1 prospect in the minors right now, is currently a physical beast, probably bigger than his listed 6’5”, who is averaging over 100 mph EV lately, recently hit two different balls over 117 mph in a single night, and has a sprint speed that is among the elite players in the minor leagues. Oh and he throws the ball across the diamond at more than 99 mph. Why do I bring up de la Cruz in this discussion? Because I’m pretty sure that if any scouts saw him developing into this kind of prodigious physicality, he would have signed for a lot more than $65,000. Instead, he turned into a huge bargain when he sprouted some 5-6 inches over the next couple of years, and added a ton of strength to that frame.
There aren’t any guys sprouting up to 6’5” in the Giants’ system that I know of right now, which leaves me at some absence of how to answer. Certainly Rayner Arias is a kid with a great frame who is going to grow into real strength, but he’s probably not what you mean by “lesser known.” So let’s go with a few others who are lower down the bonus totem pole. The Panamanian outfielder, Erick Arosemena, didn’t hit much in his debut last year (.178 average), but he’s got a ton of tools and quick twitch athleticism, if he can put them all together into baseball skills. Outfielder Moises de la Rosa seems to have a pretty good feel for hitting. Guillermo Williamson has big power from the left-hand side, though it comes with some swing and miss. Jediael Maduro has grown into an excellent hitter’s frame, and has real fans in the Giants’ PD staff. Cuban infielder Jean Carlos Sio has a very athletic frame and looks like a ballplayer, though he, too, struggled to hit much in his debut. Though he’s injured and out for the year, I like Mauricio Pierre as a long-term development play as well. He has a good frame that can grow in to strength and speed.
Of the new class, it sounds like Mexican OF Carlos Gutierrez, Dominican power hitting corner bat Carlos Concepcion, and Cuban shortstop Anthony Tandron are names to know.
Does the team have a nutrition program for the minor league system like we see in the NFL? Granted baseball organizations are just much larger than NFL teams, but I'd imagine emphasizing nutrition and providing meals would have a significant impact in player development and strength and conditioning.
It does indeed. One of the items I’ve had on my list for awhile is to interview the nutritionist on staff with Richmond — but each of the affiliates has a similar staff member this year. Keeping weight on is always a challenge for professional baseball players dealing with daily games through the heat of the summer, and good old fashioned strength conditioning is of primary importance to Gabe Kapler, Pete Putila, and Kyle Haines. They began stepping up their game a few years ago with better spreads in the clubhouse, and have expanded out to giving players the knowledge and understanding to make informed choices on how best to feed the machine.
Kapler, in fact, was a primary figure in bringing a greater focus to nutrition and strength during his time as the Farm Director in LA. His obsession with with the topic led to virtually all Dodgers’ affiliates quickly becoming noticeably bigger, stronger, faster, and simply more physical than their opponents all the time — it was something you’d notice just watching the two teams going through their on field stretching. More of the industry has caught up to the Dodgers on that topic in recent years (though it’s still a big part of their PD success), and the Giants are certainly doing everything they can to be among the industry leaders in this facet of development.
A few years ago, Tyler Cyr had this tweet about the Richmond bullpen's skills and how the game is changing, even incredibly skilled players are finding it difficult to make it to the majors.
Do you think this tweet holds up and what does it say about the difficulty of identifying future major leaguers? Additionally, do you have an under-the-radar relief arm in Richmond you think could make their debut by early next year?
That really was an incredible bullpen. It included future big leaguers Tyler Cyr, Conner Overton, Sam Selman, and Caleb Baragar — and that doesn’t even include some of those 100+ mph guys he was referring to like Melvin Adón and Raffi Vizcaino. I definitely think the tweet holds up — though I will say I’m not sure I’ve seen a LOT of pens with that kind of collective velo lately. I still think you can evaluate guys though — relative to their peers, who is throwing the most and best strikes. Who is throwing harder, whose stuff is moving nastier. And mostly, who is proving that they can attack the zone and get hitters out there? That’s really the big question. Vizcaino had great stuff but never was able to throw strikes reliably. That’s been an issue for Adón as well, and was the reason why the Giants chose (perhaps unwisely) to move on from Gregory Santos.
As for under the radar arms who might make the majors — early next year feels like a bit of a stretch, but Raymond Burgos is an interesting guy with some nastiness from the left-hand side, as is Juan Sanchez. I also think Hunter Dula is an interesting guy to watch. He’s putting up some really interesting numbers both under the hood and, what, on top of it I guess? Are traditional stats now a hood ornament? Hmm…..
Looking at Kyle Harrison’s walk rate is excruciating. I have no questions.
Walking one out of every five hitters is no way to succeed at the highest level, that’s for sure. And, it’s perhaps a little bit concerning that this has been the main focus for Kyle for two years now and it’s still a work in progress. Farhan Zaidi laid out some tough love recently when he said the Giants “wouldn’t consider” bringing a player up who was walking as many batters as Harrison has so far this year.
That said, I still believe it’s something he’ll figure out with experience and reps. He’s smart, he’s competitive, and he has a will to succeed. Also, he’s still just 21. Things will get better, if not always at the pace our impatient hearts desire.
That’s all for this week! Look for my piece on Carter Aldrete’s progress later this morning, in addition to the weekly Stats Review. And send in those questions for next week! Who knows what surprises we’ll have waiting for us before then…
BTW, in yesterday's post, I believe I asked if anybody knew the three starting pitchers in the org who have recorded Pitcher Wins this year? The answer to that was: Tristan Beck (4/7), Eric Silva (5/9), and Sean Hjelle (5/19)
I appreciate the bit of an update on Pomares. Another setback. Patience required, but based on the strides his 'classmates' Luciano and Matos are making this season I'm anticipating him taking the game by storm when he gets back.