I hope you all had a lovely 4th of July, a time of family, of food, of fun, and a good time to reflect on where our country is these days, where we’d like it to go, and how we can each help it get there.
And, it goes without saying, a time of baseball! And specifically, a great time for a memorable 4th of July debut for one David Villar:
Probably, Villar’s night was so exhilarating, so joyful, so precious to him that he didn’t much mind Sean Roby taking away his record for home runs in a season in Richmond, before he’d even gotten comfy in the chair.
A night of synchonicity! And one we need to dive into and explore in a big 4th of July edition of Minor Lines!
HITTER of the Night: Sean Roby (Rich), 2 for 5, HR (21), 2 R, 2 RBI, 3 K
PITCHER of the Night: Nick Sinacola (SJ), 5.0 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 6 K
I hope you saw yesterday’s late edition, by the way, in which I boldly issued a clarion call for the Giants to bring Villar up immediately and put him in the lineup versus Bumgarner …. only to take so long writing the rest of the post that by the time I hit “publish,” the news had already broken that the Giants had done just that. Sigh. I really am just too verbose sometimes.
Since it’s a Tuesday, today’s post is a Free For All! There aren’t many of these, so if you like what you see, by all means, consider becoming a subscriber!
Sacramento lost @ Salt Lake Bees (Angels), 7-4 STATCAST
One of the issues with following one organization’s prospects so closely, as we do here, is that broader context is naturally lost along the way. What do these development patterns mean? How much do they adhere or depart from overall industry trends? When obsessing over some of the regression from our top prospects, it can be natural for us to assume, blindly, that every other organization’s prospects succeed in timely and best-case manner, moving lock-step towards their inevitable future as a star player in the majors.
Friends, every other organization does not successfully develop all of their best prospects! And perhaps here is an opportunity to make this point (given that the game generally lacked much interest otherwise). In the 7th inning, Salt Lake’s Jo Adell crushed a home run off of Cody Carroll, one of three late innings runs that the Bees put on Sacramento’s bullpen to pull away at the end. The ball was genuinely crushed — 109 mph exit velocity, 426 feet of flight — but the greater question is: why was Adell crushing balls in Salt Lake anyway, rather than in Anaheim?
Adell was the top ranked high school hitter in the 2017 draft, taken seven spots in front of our own Heliot Ramos, and he immediately blossomed into one of the most coveted prospects in the minors. He was twice ranked by Baseball America as one of the top 10 prospects in all of baseball, peaking as the #3 prospect in the game prior to the 2020 season. In the pandemic season, the Angels brought their top prospect up to The Show, a supremely athletic 21-year-old who was ready to compete at the top level … and things quickly began to fall apart.
The 2020 short-season was nearly as disastrous for Adell as it was, in a different way, for Joey Bart. He struck out 42% of the time. He hit just .161. His defense was so comical that he famously swatted a flyball into the stands for a home run. Since then, he’s been sent down, brought back, sent down, brought back, but he hasn’t grabbed any opportunities in the Angels outfield — while other players with lesser prospect pedigree (Taylor Ward, Brandon Marsh) have established themselves and pushed Adell back to Triple A. So here he sits, crushing the occasional home run (11 with Salt Lake so far), while striking out a third of the time, hitting just .209, and looking very much like a guy who has missed his opportunity and may never become the player he was universally believed to be.
That’s the story of top prospects, folks. It happens in every organization, in every season. Failure is ubiquitous in this game, it is the default condition. Which why even the tiniest shred of success is soooo precious. Fret not over the guys who are struggling — they’re doing the best they can to succeed in a game that is stacked against them at every angle.
Speaking of celebrating success wherever you can find it, since coming back off of the Inactive List, Jason Krizan has been hitting like a house on fire. He celebrated his 33rd birthday last week with a three-hit day, and since then has gone 10 for 20 with five doubles. Not too bad, Jason! He reached base three times yesterday, with another two hits and a walk.
Also coming up with two hits was leadoff hitter Bryce Johnson (another player I’d love to see get that call up someday). Johnson went 2 for 5, scoring the River Cats’ first run of the game and driving in its final run.
Willie Calhoun had his seven-game hit streak snapped with an 0 for 3. But he did reach base twice via the walk, keeping his OBP with Sacramento an even .400. He also took a rare opportunity to show off a second tool in his game!
Zack Littell had a dominant inning, striking out three of the four batters he faced and getting an absurd five whiffs out of eight swings from the opposition! That is a very effective way of saying: “please, sir, I’d like to come back home!” (I imagined that in sort of a Dickensian, Oliver Twist sort of voice in my head. It really worked!)
Probably the most important aspect of this game, however, didn’t take place on the field at all. Rather, it was a late lineup switch, which just may have coincided with an incident that took place in the Giants’ game. Just minutes before the start of Sacramento’s game in Salt Lake, it was announced that Jhonny Pereda would be inserted into the lineup at catcher, not, as previously announced, Bart.
Looks like Bart might not get a very long opportunity to work out the new mechanics in Triple A.
Richmond beat Fightin’ Phils, 15-7
I somewhat glibly suggested in yesterday’s post that Sean Roby might well make an assault on 40 home runs this year, or possibly take a run at Ricky Oropesa’s Richmond career home run record of 37. And he certainly could! I mean, this is a guy who hit five home runs in a three-game span earlier this year. And he has some truly extraordinary raw power. When you watch him break the franchise record for home runs in a season on July 4th certainly anything seems possible!
However, while I gave the full historical treatment yesterday to Vaun Brown’s potential for a 30/30 season, I really gave short shrift to what it might mean for Roby to make a run at 40. Let me tell you: this would be a rare achievement indeed!
The Giants haven’t had even a 30 HR campaign from a minor leaguer in a decade. Adam Duvall put up 30 in his 2012 season in San Jose — and they really haven’t had a player come particularly close since then. Going further, this century, the Giants have seen just five players on the farm post a 30 home run season — two of those coming in a single year in Fresno, when the team was waiting for a new stadium to be built and playing instead in the tiny Fresno State stadium at Beiden Field. Of those five, the top home run performance was Pedro Feliz in that 2000 season in Fresno with 33.
If you go back further in Giants’ history, there aren’t a whole lot of seasons bigger than Feliz’. In the 65 year history of the SF Giants, there have been just 25 instances of a minor league player getting 30 HR — and just two who have reached the 40 mark:
You may notice from the above list, that El Paso plays a prime role in the history of Giants’ prospects home run hitting. Indeed, in the years that the El Paso Sun Kings were the Giants’ Texas League representative, that franchise saw 30 homer seasons on a near-annual basis, as the high climate and the prevailing winds combined to turn every high fly ball into a big fly. No, it turned out, Dick Dietz wasn’t going to match Johnny Bench for power! There are some other band boxes that play a role in this list. Bakersfield’s stadium had to get an exemption before every season for more than 40 years because their outfield walls did not reach the minimum standard for minor league baseball (they fudged the markers on the walls, in reality one of the lines was only about 285’). Fresno has played in small parks over the years. Phoenix was considered a homer haven — really given how many good hitting environments the Giants have played in over the years, it’s a bit surprising this list isn’t longer. It’s also a little disconcerting how few home runs resulted for the San Francisco Giants from this list!
But it seems very likely, given what we’ve seen so far this year, that it will be expanding by one this season — and unlike many of his predecessors, Roby isn’t getting a band box and a prevailing wind to assist him. This is all coming from sheer muscle.
How high can he climb? Can he reach into that 35 range that seems to be the province of just the Sun Kings in Giants’ history? Can he make a move towards the splendiferous Ollie Brown near the top of this chart? One name on the list that really catches the eye, of course, is Rob Deer — the only player in Giants’ history to post three different 30-homer seasons in the minors. Deer, of course, turned himself into a highly useful big league player by doing just two things — hitting a boat load of dingers and walking a ton — despite barely holding a .200 batting average from year to year. Is this the type of guy Roby could become? It’s possible. If so, he’ll need to work on that walk rate! Deer had a career 13% BB rate in his 12-year major league career.
All of this is a long way from yesterday’s July 4th triumph in Richmond, it’s true. But Roby’s swing just has me in the mood to think about history today. Dude hits ball hard!
So, yes, to the game, Richmond scored 15 runs over the first four innings! Turns out, that’s a pretty effective tactic for winning ball games.
In addition to Roby, 8th and 9th place hitters Ricardo Genovés and Jacob Heyward both added home runs as well. It was Geno’s second with Richmond, and fifth overall. Heyward’s was his 3rd of the season and 25th of his career with Richmond — speaking of guys climbing up that career mark! Over those first four frames, Richmond worked six walks and added nine hits, including the three dingers.
Matt Frisbee knew how to put it in cruise control with that kind of support, and the Squirrels whipped another sold out crowd into a 4th of July frenzy!
Eugene lost @ Hillsboro Hops (D’backs), 5-3
Hunter Bishop crushed a first inning home run, picking on a 93 mph fastball and whacking it a mammoth 435’ out to center field, just to the right of the batters’ eye. For the most part, the Ems were done with the highlights at that point in the game.
That’s not entirely true. Jairo Pomares ripped a double at 110 mph. Luis Toribio kept up his recent XBH surge with a double that brought in two runs. But, for the most part, the Bishop bomb was it for this game.
And, as long as I’m spending my morning meandering through the annals of history, what should we make of Bishop’s year so far? I know Kyle Haines’ view coming into the season was that if Bishop got a full year under his belt, he’d be fine. So far (knock of wood), he’s getting that full season? Is he fine?
Maybe here is the real Rob Deer comp — especially as speed and defense were always somewhat underrated aspects of Deer’s game. Bishop has shown legit power to all fields this season, and now has 12 home runs for the year. He’s also walking at a solid clip (9.5%). He needs that boost, though, because he’s hitting just .231, so the walks get his OBP just up to an acceptable level (.320). Is Bishop going to be the new Deer? Bombs and walks and lots of whiffs? It’s possible that’s the template for the 1st rounder. A scout I talked to in the spring, who was a bit down on Bishop, opined that he thought Bish might turn into one of those players who does something spectacular once every two weeks, but doesn’t do much in between time. Those walks, along with his defense and terrific speed on the bases, are probably the ticket to success for him. There needs to be enough of those things in between the bombs to keep him a Deer-like valuable member of the lineup.
Speaking of strikeouts, it was a rough night for Vaun Brown, who took the platinum sombrero home! Hillsboro starter Jameson Hill struck him out three times on breaking balls — a couple of which were well outside. A big, funky, sidewinding lefty got Brown all messed up, going down on a couple of check swings. And Brown completed the 5K night by going down hacking at a high fastball in the 9th. A couple of those were three pitch See Ya’s as well. Just a rough night at the office!
Another rough night came from Patrick Bailey. The first round catcher didn’t do any whiffing — but his 0 for 4 dropped his season average down to .199. It’s a little late in the year to be driving around on the interstate!
Jake Wong didn’t have great results last night, but the stuff was still pretty crisp. According to my friend Marc Delucchi, who was at the game, Wong was throwing 94-96 with his fastball. He didn’t show much feel for his breaking ball last night, often bouncing it. That’s normally Wong’s major putaway pitch, so lacking a feel for it put him behind the eight ball for the night. As I always say, having the stuff come back is the most important part of the first year back from TJ. Getting feel and command takes a bit longer, and that’s more true of breaking stuff than fastballs. It’s still been an encouraging season for Wong.
One of the hits Wong surrendered came in Jordan Lawlar’s very first High A game. Lawlar was the 6th overall pick in last year’s draft, and is having the kind of season that is very likely going to boost him up to a Top 10 status amongst the game’s prospects by the end of the year. Of course, as we saw above with Adell, there’s more to becoming a major leaguer than just becoming an elite prospect — but it’s a good start!
Here, let’s enjoy Pomares’ ground rule double on our way out the door:
San Jose won @ Fresno Grizzlies (Rockies), 4-1
When Nick Sinacola is throwing strikes, usually he’s having a good night. Last night, Sinacola was throwing strikes! With his fastball a lively 92-94, his breaking balls and change dipping and diving, Sinacola pretty well throttled a really good offensive team last night. The only run scored against him came on a bad hop ground ball.
Sinacola did get the Grizzlies to expand the zone — and that’s always an element of low level pitching to keep an eye on. As pitchers climb the ladder, the batters do a better job of taking those pitches, a better job of spoiling them off. Is the stuff good enough to succeed inside the zone — that’s always a question. And I think that will be a question with Sinacola going forward. For this first year, he’s certainly doing an excellent job of competing against the level, though. He’s striking out 11 batters per 9, with 68 K and just 20 BB in 55.1 IP. For the year, the 22-year-old righty has a 3.58 ERA.
One pitcher I haven’t done a great job of keeping track of this year is Julio Rodriguez — yet another live arm in the San Jose pen. Rodriguez can get his fastball up into the 95-97 range and has a loose arm that attracted my attention in spring training. He hasn’t been a great run preventer so far this year, with a 4.44 ERA, but he’s striking out hitters at a 33% clip — 14.46 K9 on the year! His biggest issue has been fastball command, as he’s also walking batters at a 6.3 per 9 pace.
San Jose did most of their offensive damage in the 1st, taking advantage of some fortuitous bounces. Aeverson Arteaga started things with a Baltimore Chop for his first of two hits, and Carter Williams added a soft bloop off the end of the bat. Riley Mahan had the big hit, with a booming double, and a Fresno miscue turned it into a big inning. From there, San Jose’s pitching held firm the rest of the way.
Arteaga has seven multi-hit efforts over his last 18 games. He’s hitting .309 over that stretch, with an .820 OPS and a reasonable 20% K rate. Sometimes he takes hacks like this…
…but he’s really progressed this season in terms of taking a solid approach to the plate. With his sneaky power, he doesn’t need to get both cheeks into a swing to hit it with authority.
Arizona Complex League
Giants Black lost to ACL Rangers, 9-1
Giants Orange won @ ACL Brewers Gold, 11-8 (7 inn)
The Black has run into a rough patch after its hot start, losing three straight and going just 5-5 over their last 10. The team once again got excellent pitching out of starter Roberto Monegro, who gave up just one run over 4.1 innings, while striking out seven. Over his last two starts, Monegro has struck out 17 and walked just two over 9.2 IP. He’s allowed just the one run over those two starts. Pretty good starter conversion project so far for the former shortstop.
Reliever Kanoa Pagan similarly had a second consecutive terrific outing. Pagan, returning from Tommy John surgery, has struck out 10 batters and walked just one over 4.1 innings in his last couple of games. Like Monegro, he has just one run allowed in those outings.
Sadly their good work was undone by a ragged outing from Cristian Acosta, who coughed up eight runs in just 1.1 IP. Acosta is in his second domestic season after two years in the DSL. He had a 7.17 ERA in the ACL last year in 14 games. That turned a 1-1 nail-biter into a 9-1 blowout.
Jared Dupere, the Giants’ 13th round pick last year, scored the only run of the game for the Black, belting a solo homer (his 3rd of the year). Anthony Rodriguez, who started the year out hot, was in a 2 for 19 funk before picking up two hits yesterday. Catcher Onil Perez was recently added to Fangraphs’ Giants’ Board as a 35+ future value player (basically, an up and down type) due to their looks at him in the ACL this year. They term him a “loose, athletic young catcher with average big league bat speed and a good chance to stay behind the plate.” Dilan Rosario isn’t off to a very good start since being demoted back down to the complex league. He’s only 1 for 19 since coming down from San Jose.
Team Orange put together their first winning streak of the season (2!) thanks to a late inning comeback against the Brewers Gold. Orange scored six runs over their final two at bats, including a four-run final inning, to take an 11-8 win. Seven walks and three Brewers errors contributed to their comeback win. In the 6th inning, back to back RBI hits from Gustavo Cardozo and Diego Velasquez brought them to within one run. The 7th inning began with back to back walks, followed by three straight hits. Derwin Laya’s second hit of the game tied things up, and Donovan McIntyre put Orange in the lead for good with his first hit in the past nine games. After a 3 for 37 stretch, Laya now has seven hits in his last four games, adding .089 points to his average and more than .200 points to his OPS.
Yoniel Ramirez, a 21-year-old right-hander playing in his second season in Arizona, saved the game after Jason Bonilla loaded the bases in the bottom of the 7th on two walks and a hit batsman. Ramirez cooly got out of the bases loaded, one out situation, striking out the game’s final two batters. Ramirez had a 7.82 ERA last season in the ACL, but back in 2019, he was a DSL All Star!
Dominican Summer League
Giants Black lost @ DSL NYY Yankees, 7-3 (7 inn)
Giants Orange lost to DSL Colorado, 5-0 (7 inn)
Lefty slugger Eliam Sandoval provided all of Team Black’s runs with one powerful swat, a three-run jack for his third home run of the season. The 18-year-old corner outfielder is 7 for 21 over his last six games with two doubles and the homer. That’s helped raise his season totals up to .267/.313/.533. He is striking out at a 27% clip, but he’s certainly showing impact when he connects with the ball. Last year in his pro debut, Sandoval posted a .687 OPS with four home runs.
Half of Black’s hits came from either Sandoval or Moises de la Rosa. The 17-year-old de la Rosa, signed to a six-figure deal in January, hails from baseball hotbed San Pedro de Marcoris in the Dominican Republic. De la Rosa hasn’t displayed much power as of yet (he has a double and a triple among nine hits), but he does seem to have a feel for hitting. Excluding the game he left with an injury, he’s posted at least one hit in seven of the nine games he’s played so far — good for a .310 batting average. He’s also striking out just 20% of the time — which in this day and age qualifies as pretty good!
There’s more good health news over on the Orange’s side of the complex, where Dennys Riera made his pro debut yesterday, batting second behind Ryan Reckley in the order. That put, for the first time, the Giants’ top three signings of this international cycle in the lineup together, as catcher Juan Perez followed up the pair, hitting third. Perez is 7 for 23 over his past six games, gradually boosting his average up over the Mendoza Line. Most of those have been singles, but he did pick up his first career home run (and extra-base hit) in that stretch.
Samir Chires kept up his excellent campaign in relief for the Orange, striking out three over two scoreless innings, and allowing just one hitter to reach base. The 18-year-old right-hander has allowed just one run over 12.2 IP this year, while striking out 13. Another 18-year-old right-hander, Jan Caraballo, was considered one of the two arms to watch on last year’s DSL squad (along with Gerelmi Maldonado, who has been bumped up to the ACL this year and is doing quite well). But despite a strong arm, things haven’t really come together yet for Caraballo, who has posted high ERAs and low strikeout rates in his two seasons in the DSL. Yesterday, he entered a scoreless tie against Colorado in the 7th and final inning, and allowed five runs on two walks and four hits, including a three-run homer. Gonna take awhile for the ERA to recover from that one!
Setting Up the Week:
All of the four full-season affiliates began their week’s series on Monday for the holiday but will take an off-day today. Series will resume on Wednesday and play through Sunday as normal.
That means that this week, Wednesday will be the day of the Stats Review. But look for a new podcast coming later today. It’s one I’m very excited about and think you’ll really enjoy! My guest, Eric Flemming, spent 15 years as a member of the SF Giants organization on the player development side, the last several of which were spent as Assistant Director of Player Development. It’s a really fun conversation that I’m sure you’re going to love!
Today’s Complex Games:
ACL Giants Black (R. Jimenez) @ ACL B’backs Black (TBD), 6:00 pm, No Video
ACL Giants Orange (Manzano) vs. ACL Rockies (TBD), 6:00 pm, No Video
DSL Giants Black (Grullon) vs. DSL Nats (TBD), 8:00 am, No Video
DSL Giants Orange (Mota) @ DSL Baltimore Orange (TBD), 8:00 am, No Video
Hope you all had a great 4th and are ready for the deep summer season! Catch your breath! It’s gonna be a wild ride!