Hello from 60,000 feet in the sky! As you read this, I am winging my way across the country (hopefully, assuming I break my streak of mechanical failures and other travel mishaps I’ve been on lately) and will be setting down in Phoenix shortly to head to the Spring Breakout game! I am incredibly stoked! Perhaps you are, too, and we can all be stoked together this afternoon at Ho Ho Kam Park!
But as we’re waiting for game time (or, in my case, my hypothetical flight to land), it’s time to dig back into the Mailbag! For those of you who are new around here, this will be a weekly feature once the season starts back up. But today, we have the last of our monthly installments, and I can’t wait to see what you all are thinking about!
First, however, a word from our sponsors…
Now, what’s on your mind?
What are your thoughts on the Giants Spring Breakout roster? Any surprises - inclusion or exclusion? I'm pretty surprised to see both Walker Martin and Maui Ahuna included, given they didn't play after signing last year.
This will be my first Spring Training and I'll also be there for the Spring Breakout game, which I'm super excited for! I think it's a great way to give fans a chance to see young players early on in their development in case they don't live near one of the affiliates. Any idea what the history is behind this or how the concept of a prospects game came to be? Which guy on the Breakout Game roster are you most excited to see in person? (sorry that was two questions).
Here we go! We are all stoked together!
I don’t think there’s anything surprising about Martin and Ahuna being on the roster, Mike. They spent two of their highest draft choices on the pair last year (not to mention about $3m in signing bonus on Martin), and are extremely high on both. In both cases, they wanted to make sure that the players were in their best physical shapes before taking the field, and as both had had back issues in the spring, deemed it best to just work with them on strength and conditioning and non-game activities. But that was seven months ago! Now it’s the start of a new year and both are ready to show what they can do. Jim Callis mentioned in last week’s MLB Pipeline rankings of the Giants’ system that Ahuna has come in with an additional 20 pounds of muscle, and the team is extremely excited about where he is at this point.
With that said, what jumps out at me about the roster? The big thing is that it is pretty close to an absolutely ideal roster as you could hope for from this system! I mean, basically everybody from my Top 20 who isn’t currently competing for a big league job is on this roster, other than Carson Whisenhunt, who is still being handled somewhat carefully. Indeed, if you count Landen Roupp and Juan Sanchez among those still competing for a big league job, even that isn’t limiting the roster shape.
It’ll be the first time most Giants fans have seen Walker, Bryce Eldridge, and Rayner Arias, who form the core of the “next wave” top-of-the line-hitters, plus Ahuna and Cole Foster, giving you the entire top of last year’s draft. And I’m thrilled to see that Josh Bostick is here — he’s a real sleeper breakout candidate.
To be fair, before I enthuse too much, I suppose it is worth noting that Baseball America, ranking the various Spring Breakout rosters, had the Giants way down at #23, with the comment that “overall this is a thin group without any headliners among the pitching corps.” So while there’s a thrill factor here for those of us hyper-focused on the Giants’ farm, the overall trend of the industry being less than enthused with the Giants’ system continues to be a concern.
But I guess the thing that most sticks out to me is the inclusion of quite a few players that I’m very happy to see healthy and on the field again — Hunter Bishop, Vaun Brown, Carson Ragsdale, you could include Arias, Ahuna, and Martin in that group if you wanted. Given how much health has been a factor in slowing some players’ progress over the last few years (and we know some players like Aeverson Arteaga and Gerelmi Maldonado who are already rehabbing from surgeries), it’s great to see all of these guys participating.
Personally, I am more than thrilled that I’m getting a look at so many of these kids today, and am particularly happy that I’ll be getting my first live look at so much of last year’s draft class in this sort of “big league” environment. It’s really an awesome new program.
Which speaks to Clark’s question. I agree, Clark, this is a fantastic idea, and, as much as people like to slam MLB for being terrible at marketing the game, I think we really need to applaud them for this innovation. This definitely is something that came from and is coordinated at the top, right up to the Commissioner’s office. I wouldn’t at all be surprised if the idea itself came from MLB’s prospect coverage team — Jim Callis, Jonathan Mayo, et all — but coordinating the logistics to make it happen is no small feat, so let’s give kudos to all of the lower-level officials who had to work to make it happen, including, of course, the Farm Directors of 30 different clubs.
Just a complete home run. I really hope the attendance for these events convinces MLB to keep the ball rolling next year.
Landen Roupp seems to be all anyone is talking about at camp. Any idea what he has worked on this offseason to come out such a hot commodity?
What does a good season for Vaun Brown look like this year? He has been struggling to stay on the field for so long that I don't know what the expectation should be if he is healthy for a full season.
The quality of his stuff has always been outstanding. I remember doing a KNBR hit two years ago and being asked by Kerry Crowley to name what I thought were the best individual pitches in the farm system, and Roupp’s curve was one of my first replies. And his 93-95 sinker has always been a quality pitch. He also is one of the best strike-throwers in the organization, which doesn’t hurt!
From reports out of camp, he’s also been playing with a new cutter this spring that I think will help the overall repertoire quite a bit. When he was throwing both the curve and slider in 2022, I think it helped the whole package play up, but he didn’t show much conviction in the slider last year, using it less than 5% of the time.
The key for Roupp is really staying healthy, which, so far, has been the only thing that has slowed his upwards charge. If he can handle innings, he’s a big league arm. I do think it remains to be seen how the team wants to use him. I can see him being a real knockout success in the Jakob Junis role, but if he has the repertoire to start and can handle the innings load, he has a chance of being a huge scouting/development success story.
(Hey, that’s Orioles super-prospect Coby Mayo literally swinging out of his helmet at a Roupp breaking ball in that clip).
As for Brown — you’ve got it. At 26, he needs to really show what he can do at this point. And that means we need to see him on the field and healthy and at his best. His swinging strike rate last year was whatever the deepest, most saturated form of red your flag preference might be, but it’s still hard for me to know how much of his performance last year was a skillset issue and how much was not being physically capable of performing. A good year for him this year is one where he shows himself capable of both holding up physically and performing — making at least enough contact for his immense physical abilities to impact the game. From that perspective, I will say that I’ve heard a whisper of a rumor that he has, perhaps, had another health setback this spring. I haven’t confirmed that, but I will be very interested to catch sight of him at the Spring Breakout game today.
What are your interpretations of Spring Training so far? Any prospect that's surprised you? Who do you expect to hang around till the end of Spring?
Understanding that spring results/stats are not terribly meaningful, I would say that the #1 surprise for me so far this spring has been Juan Sanchez hitting 96 with his fastball — at least according to the StatCast out of Talking Stick. That is at least one tick above anything he showed at Richmond last year, and maybe a solid tick and a half! Sanchez is a good arm who throws strikes and has funk to his delivery, but he’s always lacked a knockout pitch. If the power of his arsenal is continuing to trend upwards (as it has been doing gradually over the past three years), that will only help his changeup and slider play better. He’s a guy I can see sneakily hang around all spring and potentially even make the team. By my count, there are only nine current healthy 40-man pitchers still in big league camp, which means there are plenty of spots for NRI guys to nab. Sanchez could be one of those nabbees, along with Mason Black, Spencer Howard, Daulton Jefferies, etc.
Beyond that, while at bats picked up late in spring training games can lead to very distorted numbers, it’s certainly been a joy to watch personal cheeseball Ismael Munguia have a big camp, and I hope he’s leaving the same positive impression on Bob Melvin and his staff that he’s spread around every coach and teammate who has ever shared a dugout with him. The same goes for Wade Meckler, who I would guess is in a heated battle with Luis Matos to be the “first outfielder on call” in the event of IL stints. Both of the youngsters have had their moments, and I would expect maybe all three of these guys will be on hand for the Bay Bridge Series at the conclusion of camp. We might be able to read a current pecking order between the two in the fact that Meckler has now been optioned, while Matos is still in camp.
Maybe another surprise for me is how clear Tyler Fitzgerald’s path to an opening day assignment appears to be at this point. The same roster logistics that have led to this week’s messy parting with J.D. Davis have worked in Fitzgerald’s favor. The team simply can’t go into the year with only two players who can capably man the middle infield. The 26th spot has to be a backup infielder, and because Jorge Soler’s presence means they have only four “real” outfielders, it would help if that 26th man can carry an outfielder’s glove as well. That points the dial squarely at Fitzgerald, Brett Wisely, or the recently acquired Otto Lopez. Wisely has already been sent out after relatively little action, and Lopez doesn’t quite have Fitzgerald’s bonafides at shortstop (he’s more 2b/CF). Even without a big camp, that would seem to leave Fitzgerald as the obvious favorite, maybe even a lock, to grab that final spot on the roster.
And finally, not a surprise, but it certainly is a thrill to see Kyle Harrison attack this spring with such a vengeance. The young left-hander looks like he’s on a mission to convince everybody that he is AND SHOULD BE, the solid #2 in the rotation behind Logan Webb. So far, it’s actually a little reminiscent of the spring Webb himself had back in 2021, when his 0.53 ERA and 22 strikeouts in 17 innings helped him win the final spot in the Giants’ rotation. It’s going to be fun to watch this pair go to work!
Which offensive prospect do you think has the best chance to break through at the major league level this season?
Oh goodness! This is something of a “define your terms” sort of question. For instance, the clear and easy answer to this is Jung-Hoo Lee, who could well be in the running for Rookie of the Year this season, I would think, and has the skills to be easily the best “young hitter” on the squad. But he might not be who you’re thinking about.
If we want to focus on player development success stories — hitters who the organization has brought up and developed — then I would think the guys with the best chance of success are the ones who’ve already experienced failure there and had a chance to work on their weaknesses and make some adjustments — guys like Luis Matos, Patrick Bailey, and Casey Schmitt. But they might not be who you’re thinking of either, as they’re not technically “prospects” in that narrowly defined term (though in the “everybody’s a prospect” world view, they’re still the right answer).
So if you’re specifically talking about “guys who were eligible for my Top 50,” then I would say that the answer had really better be Marco Luciano. Even though he’s suffered through a rough camp, and could definitely stand some more time in Triple-A, Luciano is the top hitting prospect in this system and a player who has already made his big league debut. If he doesn’t have the best chance to break through at the major league level before the end of this year, then something has gone seriously amiss.
Beyond Luci, the player who looks like he’s going to have the best opportunity for a breakout is Fitzgerald, who as I said above, looks like a lock for a roster spot, and is likely to be behind only Nick Ahmed — not exactly an offensive dynamo — on the shortstop depth chart.
If you want some wild card options, a healthy Vaun Brown could insinuate himself into the situation IF he’s able to prove himself much more capable of making contact than he was last year, and if Victor Bericoto were to take another big step forward, who’s to say he couldn’t force himself into the situation as well?
I wouldn’t expect either of those things to happen, however. Much more likely is that a player like Matos, Bailey, Schmitt, or Wade Meckler shows improvement on their second shot at the level, and Luciano or Fitzgerald grabs the shortstop position for their own somewhere along the way.
I think my biggest question is about Luciano. Much like last year with David Villar at 3B, the Giants have been talking about how committed they are to Marco taking the shortstop role and running with it. He really has not impressed so far in camp, and Ahmed has been hitting really well. I don't think this was the plan, but how do you keep Marco on the 26 if things stay on their current path?
The first thing I would say is that Luciano’s situation and Villar’s, while sharing some similarities, are very different. As much as players define who they are on the field, there is a difference between being a 26-year-old 11th round pick who has slowly worked his way up level by level, and a 22-year-old multi-million-dollar top free agent signing who has represented the best hope of the organization since he was a teenager. That may not be fair! But it’s certainly true that all clubs are going to handle those two different players differently — and one of those differences is that it becomes easier to turn the organizational page on a player like Villar, so they have to grab their opportunities forcefully, because another one might not be coming.
That’s not as true of Luciano, who still has plenty of time — as well as tools — on his side. Last fall, Farhan Zaidi did say that the team hoped that Luciano would win the shortstop role — which at least rhetorically is different from saying that the position is his. But I do think it’s significant that when Zaidi said that, Bob Melvin was not yet the Manager of the club. It’s clear that Melvin came to this organization with the power to push back on the front office — as Zaidi, to his credit, said would be beneficial — by the signing of Matt Chapman, whom Melvin has spent most of the spring lobbying hard for. I think it’s Melvin’s presence, too, that has turned most of the beat writer’s minds so forcefully to Nick Ahmed as the likely starting shortstop. Managers tend to like the reliability of veterans, and Melvin certainly seems excited about the prospect of putting Chapman’s and Ahmed’s gloves together on the left side.
That said, the 34-year-old Ahmed has been basically a replacement level player for two years now, and while he’s never been a particularly good hitter in his career, he was an appalling 50% worse than league average last year, leading the eventual pennant-winning D’backs to cut him loose in the second half. I don’t want to appear cynical, but I don’t think anybody would be shocked if history repeats itself for Ahmed in 2024. He has said that most of his difficulties last year were the result of a surgery. We shall see. The history of shortstops in their mid-30s isn’t kind, and particularly not when that history is related to shortstops who were modestly talented even at their peak.
I highly doubt we’ll see Luciano on the opening day 26-man roster, and that’s probably to his benefit. But I’m somewhat skeptical that we’ll see Ahmed on the closing-day active roster, and by that time, we can only hope Luciano will have proved himself worthy of sustained opportunity.
Dennis Touros
How are our wounded warriors coming along? Hunter Bishop, Jairo Pomares and Will Bednar? Richmond, if and when they are all healthy?
The best news from that group applies to Bishop. As noted above, he’s part of the Spring Breakout roster that will take the field today, giving him his first game action since undergoing surgery on his left elbow last spring. That’s very good news, and we can only hope that the injury demon that has devoured so much of his career thus far will keep its teeth to itself this time around and let the poor kid play! As he approaches his 26th birthday in three months, Bishop has, amazingly, appeared in just 134 games since being drafted nearly five years ago.
I had Bishop listed on my Richmond “way too early” roster preview, and that does seem most likely to me, however, I can also see wanting to ease him in with some time back in High-A after not having seen any official game action in more than 18 months. Either way, it’ll be great just to see him on any field, and I do think he should get a solid run at Richmond this summer.
The news with Bednar is not nearly so good. The right-hander, who once again was shut down in the AFL with back problems, is still trying to work his way back to the field. When I saw him in the fall, he had little feel for his pitches and was battling real control issues, not surprising to anyone who has dealt with back pain, I should say. It doesn’t sound like a winter’s rest has helped him progress much — just as it didn’t the winter before. It’s concerning!
Pomares, as far as I can tell is somewhere in between. He is in minor league camp and taking part in activities. However, if I put my ear to the ground and try to listen to some friendly birdies I know in Arizona, it doesn’t sound like he’s quite at full go and seeing game action, which is somewhat concerning, after he missed nearly all of last year with back and leg woes. As I wrote in Wednesday’s post, it becomes quickly apparent to me when I’m at Papago Park who is healthy and who isn’t. I’m hoping that when I make way over the complex tomorrow, I’ll see Pomares in the batter’s box taking some tremendous hacks!
There are a lot of possibilities at the shortstop position, but one that I feel like I never hear about anymore is Will Wilson. What's his status?
Well, look, in the prospect game you always want to be moving forward — nobody wants to head back down! But that’s what happened with Will late last year. After hitting just .234/.304/.408 with Sacramento (good for just a wRC+ in the PCL of 63), he fell victim of the numbers game and ended his year down in Richmond, where he’d seen some action in each of the previous two seasons.
That’s not great. Nor is the fact that he didn’t actually perform that well even after the demotion. And, I’m sure he’s sensitive to the fact that he was not a NRI this year for Giants’ camp, nor has he been named to their Spring Breakout roster. Generally, he just hasn’t been seen or talked about much this spring. All of those things add up and suggest a reputation that is sadly in decline with the front office.
The way you turn those things around, of course, is by producing on the field. That’s what Wilson will need to do to find himself back in the ascent. He’ll get a chance at either Richmond or Sacramento this spring, and he’ll need to remind the Giants that he’s an option for them by showing them more steady production. Wilson has outstanding pop for a middle infielder — something the club is in a little short supply of at the moment (Harrison noted that Wilson took him deep during his 70-pitch effort at minor league camp this week). But he just has to produce a steadier supply of hits. He’s produced a lifetime batting average of .237 in his minor league career, and that’s where the improvement will likely have to come if he’s to put himself back on the map and take that final step up the ladder.
Happy Cactus League Rog! Roll the dice for me on a pitcher and a position player. From the Draft Class/Int’l signings of 2023, who do you see breaking out of the gates and moving the fastest up the system ala Whisenhunt/Meckler. Why? For fun, please pick a dark horse. (Rounds 11 - 20 or >$500K.)
Thank you, Jason! It always is a happy time of year for those of us who love baseball.
The Giants’ 2nd round pick, Joe Whitman, is a return to the same bucket that worked so well with Whisenhunt, so he’d certainly be my pick to replicate Carson’s rapid ascent.
I do expect the Giants to take a somewhat conservative approach to the two high school kids, Eldridge and Martin. The power of Eldridge’s bat might force the issue, but heading into their first full pro seasons, a little caution for teenagers isn’t a terrible idea. So for the Meckler comp, I would tab the 4th and 5th rounders, Ahuna and Quinn McDaniel. Both of those guys have real tools, and McDaniel might have the most advanced and refined offensive game of anyone in the draft class. He’s definitely Most Likely To Make Rog Look Dumb For Withholding Him From the Top 50, if that’s actually a thing anyone gets awarded.
On the international side, I suppose I tipped my hand here with the Top 50: Lisbel Diaz and Alix Hernandez were both small, five-figure signings in the 2023 class who I think are real sleepers. Both teenagers are Statcast darlings, with Diaz’ Exit Velocities and Hernandez’ spin rates and fastball shape standing out amongst their contemporaries. I’m also intrigued by left-hander Jose Rengel, who was one of the youngest pitchers in the org last year and had a dominant run in the second half.
Do I need to go deeper? Day Three sleepers, huh… hmmm…..I suppose Jack Payton, who was taken in the 11th round in some part because the Giants couldn’t be sure they’d sign him, is a little bit of a cheat, though he certainly should be the best of the Day Three picks. I would dearly love to see the Giants have a little success with their annual selections out of Puerto Rican Academies, so maybe I should give an aspirational vote of confidence to young outfielder Jose Ortiz. I saw him tracking flyballs at Papago last fall, and he certainly looks the part in a uniform. For pitchers, I think Michael Rodriguez is an interesting arm who could potentially move fast as a reliever if he maintains the best of his upper-90s velocity from college.
And I can’t do any better than to simply repeat Joe Salermo’s response when I asked him in January to name some sleepers from this year’s (2024) international class. Salermo named a hitter and a pitcher as strong sleeper candidates among the lower dollar signings. Dominican outfielder Oliver Tejada, Salermo said, “has present strength, plus bat speed, plus exit velocity, and makes a lot of contact — consistent contact.” That sounds good! For a pitcher, Salermo suggested Venezuelan right-hander Argenis Cuyama: “really good body, and a plus athlete. He’s already been up to 97 this year and sits 93-95 with a feel for a changeup.” Good place to start!
(Every time I see this clip, I have to giggle at the sight of McDaniel being congratulated at home plate by a towering Eldridge)
David Rudolph
Now that your prospects list is complete, do you want to dig into completing the opening day (on hand) pitching roster?
Oof! That’s a lot harder.
Let me see what I can do:
Locks: Webb, Harrison, Hicks, Doval, Rogers, Rogers, Jackson, Walker
Near Locks: Black
On if Healthy: Winn, Hjelle
Coming Up on the Outside: Small, Howard, Jefferies
Long Shots: Sanchez, Roupp
Dan Kromat
Hi Roger - I would like to see articles on "how the Giants can have the best drafts," and "how the Giants could have the best Player Development Group." I think they need help.
Dan, I can say with total conviction that I have much, MUCH more to learn from Michael Holmes, Kyle Haines et al than any mouse crumb morsel they could ever glean from me, so I’m not sure I’m well equipped to write such pieces. Take courses from them? That I could do!
Their 2023 draft is being pretty universally praised as one of the best in the game (without having great draft position), and, if you listened to this week’s podcast, you heard former Blue Jays’ GM, J.P. Ricciardi, add to that praise. In addition, their 2020 draft is looking like a very solid return (Patrick Bailey, Kyle Harrison, Casey Schmitt, and more) that is among the best in the game in what was an incredibly difficult year to scout. The 2021 draft, while it has certainly seen its share of disappointments, still seems very likely at this point to deliver a member of the opening day rotation (Mason Black) and as I suggested above, another long shot in 12th rounder, Landen Roupp, who has been the talk of the camp.
The 2022 draft included, I believe, the second quickest player to reach the majors in Wade Meckler, and 2nd round pick Carson Whisenhunt has emerged as one of the real star prospects of that draft, and is now considered to be a better prospect than players taken more than 60 picks higher than him. Indeed, the virtually unheard of (at the time) 196th pick of the 2022 draft, Hayden Birdsong, is arguably a better prospect today than a few of the top six overall picks of that draft: the Marlins’ Jacob Berry (6th overall), the Nats’ Elijah Greene (5th overall), and maybe even the Rangers’ Kumar Rocker, who was a top 10 pick in two separate drafts!
I have to say, that all seems like pretty decent drafting and developing! Now granted, it feels like the organization has a much better grasp of the pitching side of things than the position player side, so a little more balance would be good to see going forward. But in general, I feel like some of the criticism of the Giants’ current draft and development processes is a case where “familiarity breeds contempt.” When you’re obsessed with a narrow field of results, you’re likely going to see every fault in detail. But let me tell you, there are more than a few clubs out there that really took a whiff on the 2020 draft, and more than a few that are struggling to turn their big-time prospects into productive major leaguers.
It’s a long, slow arduous process that ends in failure much more frequently than anybody would like to see. That said, returning to my note about the Spring Breakout game above, the Giants are currently seen around the industry as somewhat lacking in their player development, and the 2024 season is going to be critical in turning that view around. As I’ve written before, if the Giants are right about this wave of young arms that is on the verge of impacting the major league club, you’re going to be seeing some articles about how the Giants became one of the best scouting player development groups in baseball — and you’ll see them written by much more august sources than me! If they aren’t, then things could turn south for this administration in the not too distant future. These are the stakes…
How much does the perception of a team’s player development impact individual player rankings? For example, do players in systems like the Rays or Dodgers get “boosts” amongst evaluators because there is an underlying confidence in the system itself?
I think there’s definitely some of that — it’s human nature, I suspect, to look at a process that is humming along and presume that it will continue to do so in the future. But I think we also have to keep in mind what it is that these orgs are doing right to reach their level of success. The Rays, the Dodgers, the Yankees, the Guardians — these orgs have established that they have real, tangible ways to help some of their players get better, whether that comes from throwing harder (Yanks and Cleveland), throwing more strikes with already hard stuff (Dodgers), lifting the ball more effectively (Rays, Dodgers), or whatever. And it’s those underlying skills improvements, as much as any organizational confirmation bias that is giving heretofore unknown or modest prospects a boost.
Let’s give just one example. River Ryan has become a breakout candidate in the Dodgers’ system — even making various Top 100 lists this winter — after being so little regarded as a Padres’ prospect that San Diego traded him away for #ForeverGiant Matt Beaty in the spring of 2022. Beaty hit .093 in a year with the Padres, while the Dodgers now have a Top 100 pitching prospect on their hands just two years later. How did this alchemy occur? Is this just a case of “Dodgers Bias?”
Not really! Instead, it’s a case of good Dodgers’ processes having real benefit to the player. Ryan was a terrific athlete who performed as a two-way player in college at UNC-Pembroke. After the Pads nabbed him with an 11th round pick, they used him exclusively as a hitter during his debut summer. However, they let him get on the mound in some instructional league games that fall, and that is where Dodgers’ scouts took note of his potential. Eagerly grabbing him for Beaty, they immediately converted Ryan into a pitcher only, and once he was focused on that element of his game, he immediately began to see improvements in his velocity and overall quality of stuff — somewhat similar to the process that led LSU’s Paul Skenes to become the 1st overall pick in last year’s draft.
The Dodgers, in other words, got a glimpse of a terrific athlete with advanced arm strength, and once they got ahold of him, they helped him become a refined power pitcher with above average fastball and command. They helped him get better, in other words — and scouts took note of that improvement. So yes, while there may be some confirmation bias in thinking “the Dodgers or Rays are just going to find a way to turn this dude into something,” it’s the actual “turning this dude into something” that is most influential on the observers who watch the difference in skills/abilities/tools as they happen.
In [the March 9th] game, Wade Meckler singled, and is now 8 for 20 with at least 7 RBI. Any insight as to whether he has now mastered hitting the breaking ball or is just doing what he does, terrorizing sub- major league pitchers.
I would not attempt to draw far-reaching lessons from the first two weeks of Cactus League activity, no. But Meckler has a long history of improving elements of his game, and I would not be shocked to see that a winter of working at this revealed weakness will have an effect. As Dennis Pelfrey says, players who have been humbled at a level spend the winter training to beat that level, like a gamer works to defeat the level of a video game that has so far stymied them, remembering every hidden danger that suddenly squashed out their digital lives.
Meckler, whose drive, intensity, and work ethic are his greatest natural tools, no doubt made a quick assessment of his struggles against breaking balls last year (in addition to his noted failures at the major league level, he hit .145/.224/.232 against those pitches in the minors) and went to work trying to improve himself. I’d be surprised if he didn’t take many, many cuts against the ol’ slider machine this winter, probably cranked up to its highest velocity.
Meckler can hit, and I’d guess in his next shot at the majors, he’ll do a better job of showing off his true virtues.
In a recent post, you mentioned that Eldridge was not a surprise draft pick because #[16] is about the area where the top college hitters have already been chosen and teams begin to consider HS hitters. In that same vein of thinking, what sort of prospects are generally in play around #13?
Eldridge was taken with the 16th pick, and generally I would say that, depending on the class, 13 will be in that same cusp area. That window moves around a little, depending on the strength of the college pitching and hitting classes, and in most classes, 13 looks like it still tends to fall in that “last of the high performing college bats” area.
If you look at the history of the 13th pick, there are actually more high school players taken than college, but honing in on this century it’s been close to a 50/50 split, with 13 college players and 11 high school. The productivity, however, is massively weighted towards the college guys. Led by players like Trea Turner, Chris Sale, and Aaron Hill, college #13s have delivered a whopping 122.9 rWAR this century. Of the high school guys, only Brandon Nimmo has been a real home run, and Josh Lowe, Casey Kotchman, and Trevor Rogers are the only other high schoolers who haven’t returned a swing and a miss. One oddity here is that, despite the heavy presence of Sale, we appear to be solidly in the Land of the Bats at pick #13. There have only been four pitchers taken at 13 since 2000, and other than Sale, they haven’t returned much value (though the Phillies still have high hopes for Andrew Painter, currently rehabbing from TJ).
I can widen the scope a little, but the answer seems to be mostly the same. In the 11-14 pick area, over the past five drafts, we’ve seen 14 college picks, almost all of which have been bats. Last year saw a run of four straight college bats, including a couple, Matt Shaw and Tommy Troy, who I believe would have interested the Giants had they lasted a couple more picks. The previous year was mostly the same, with three straight college bats followed by a high school shortstop in the 11-14 range. And, of course, the last time the Giants had the #13 pick, they went with college catcher Patrick Bailey.
I’d say with a high school class that seems to be getting fairly tepid reviews so far from scouts, we should probably be thinking about the college bats for the Giants this year.
Do you know if Luciano’s K’s so far in spring training have been because of approach or swing and miss in the zone? I really enjoyed your SEAGER analysis about him working deep counts, and ultimately striking out. Is that still the issue so far and how concerned are you about it?
Like most Giants’ fans, I haven’t been able to watch many games this spring — in fact, I haven’t been able to see any spring action live. Listening on the radio, it’s been pretty hard to tell what exactly has been going on, although Jon Miller did note a couple of times in a recent game that Luciano had swung and missed at sliders by more than a foot, which suggest both approach AND contact troubles.
I’m not exactly sure what to make of Luciano’s spring troubles. I’ve seen him have these stretches before. I was in Eugene during his first week at that level, when he struck out 10 times in his first 18 AB (he’d go on to have 21 Ks in his first 42 AB). I watched plenty of his first few weeks in Richmond, when he hit .170 and 22 strikeouts in his first 53 ABs. In both cases, he ultimately regained his equilibrium and caught up to the environments. And I think, given enough development time, he will ultimately do so at the highest levels, too.
That said, I did have a scout text me this winter from the Dominican winter league expressing some concern at Luciano’s ability to track breaking balls, and the level of in-zone swing and miss certainly has to raise some level of concern. He is patient and definitely will work long at bats, and I do think that fine-tuning that approach to be a little more aggressive on hittable fastballs early in the count will help, but ultimately, he’ll need to find his own way.
With just 320 PA above A-ball, the most likely explanation is that he just needs a little more development time in the high minors. And, at 22, he’s hardly pressing against the development clock at this point.
Perhaps not a question, but a suggestion: the org has had a full season with Pete Putila at GM. How is he driving change in the org, particularly related to the young talent development, and working with Haines, etc. Seems he’s continued to have a low profile - not a bad thing by any stretch - but would be good to get a better sense of his role, impact (if anything can be evaluated in just a year), etc.
Seems like a question, Ed!
And this is one I get a lot, but it’s a difficult one to answer. Putila, as GM, is essentially serving as the lieutenant or right-hand man of President of Baseball Operations, Farhan Zaidi. Title inflation has swept across the industry and generally GMs today are serving the same roles as Assistant GMs in the days when Ned Colletti was Brian Sabean’s chief lieutenant. As such, Putila’s working in tandem with Zaidi on the major league roster as well as helping oversee baseball operations in general, but he’s not specifically in charge of anything.
Which isn’t to say that Putila’s voice isn’t an important one in the mix, and I think we can generally see some areas where he’s definitely having an influence. As I’ve mentioned before, talking for even a short while with Putila is enough to let you know how important he considers things like strength, physicality, and explosiveness. I think it’s no surprise, then, that we’ve seen quite a lot of player acquisitions of all kinds that would seem to prioritize these very things: from drafting of players like Eldridge and Martin or signing of Yoendry Sanchez as their top dollar IFA player this year, to the higher profile and bigger money signing of Jorge Soler, you’re seeing the team target really physical athletes. That’s even been true of a low-level acquisition like the Dariel Lopez pickup in the minor league Rule 5 draft.
I also think it’s no coincidence that Putila’s arrival immediately preceded a season in which the club displayed a very different approach to promotions for their prospects. And, given his experience with the Astros, I think you can also see some of Putila’s fingerprints on the club’s willingness to rely heavily on homegrown pitching this year.
That’s not to say that any of those things can be attributed wholly to Putila’s presence, but it’s easy to imagine that his voice is one of those contributing to these organizational changes. Zaidi is still the overlord of all baseball operations and his values and priorities hold the most sway, and Haines is the Farm Director and he’s the one responsible for implementing those priorities and strategies. But Putila is definitely an influential voice in the mix as he should be.
And with that, my plane should be getting ready to land. Let’s put our seat backs and tray tables in an upright position, and prepare to see some ball!
Excellent mailbag! Some Giants fans may feel Luciano was anointed the job because of the powerful on field visual. Luci taking the torch from Craw in last game. Fans assume he must be ready. After Melvin was hired, Zaidi doubled down at Winter mtgs/KNBR repeating Luci has earned the opportunity to be the everyday SS. He could have pivoted to the continued growth of Matos, Fitzgerald, etc.