Squirrels, Ems Keep on Rolling!
SF Giants Minor Lines, May 12, 2026
Photo Credit: Eugene Emeralds
Before we get into today’s Minor Lines, I want to supplement my comments in yesterday’s mailbag regarding Jonah Cox. I wrote yesterday about how excited the idea of getting a league average bat out of Cox might be, and I’m sure some of my readers might have considered that damning with faint praise — certainly not my intent. But yesterday, Cox’s name came up on a Baseball America Fantasy podcast, which allows me to get the computers involved in this evaluation process in addition to the scouts, and I think that helps complete the picture.
First off, it’s just really fun for Cox to be a name that comes up in a discussion like this of minor league performers that dynasty league owners might want to think about stashing. That’s out of 30 organizations and some 700 players — and it’s not typically an area where Giants’ sleeper prospects come up. Sweet! But specifically, Dylan White, who runs Roboscout projections for BA, dug into some of the process numbers behind Cox’s success and gave us a pretty solid projection for the future. Roboscout is a pure projection model using only data — no scouting — to try and identify standout performers slipping through the scouting cracks. And, as a Roboscout follower, I’d say that Dylan’s model does a good job of capturing both early breakout players low down in the minors, and late-bloomer high-level achievers who tend to get far less prospect love.
According to White, Cox currently has the highest wRC+ in all of Double-A if you set a minimum PA limit at around 80. Interestingly, a lot of the under-the-hood numbers are only average for the level — his EV90 (103.5 mph), hard-hit rate (38%), and in-zone contact rates (79%) are all just average for Double-A, which tells you that there is some over-performance going on in the pure numbers. In general, you’d like to see those numbers above average, especially for an older player. Where Cox has really improved by the numbers (other than the slight increase in bat speed I mentioned yesterday) is that he has slashed his chase rate down from over 30% in Eugene to just 21% this year — and I think that falls in line with his comments about not trying to hit everything, just stick to a game plan, hunt pitches to drive, and swing hard.
Overall, White’s system has a robust peak-level projection for Cox of 111 wRC+ at the major league level with 15 HR and 35 SB — which would obviously be a real impact player. And, I think a 110 wRC+ peak does fall in line with an overall league average bat type player — Harrison Bader’s career has followed this general path, for instance (though Bader is likely a superior defender in center). Cox is 24 now, so peak is only a couple of years away for him. But there’s definitely something there to be interested in. He’s going to zip up my mid-season rankings this year for sure.
There was more transaction carousel going on on the off-day. So, before we dive into the games, let’s catch up on where everybody is, as catchers and middle infielders were on the move!
To Sacramento: Drew Cavanaugh, Aeverson Arteaga, Jason Foley
To Richmond: Zane Zielinski, Ty Hanchey
To Eugene: Daniel Rogers, Jean Carlos Sio
Very excited to see Cavanaugh and Arteaga get the call up to Triple-A. Both have been excellent in their return to Richmond this spring, and Arteaga’s recovery from a truly painful 2025 has been especially uplifting to watch. Development is non-linear! It’s going to be nice to have a little dose of new prospect shine in the Sacramento sections!
The moves of the past week leave all of the teams other than Sacramento under their roster maximum — Richmond at 27 (max 28), Eugene at 29 (30), and San Jose at 29 (30). In addition, by our count, the org is well below the domestic roster limit of 165, currently sitting by our count at 150. So, there’s some room to bolster things with minor league free agents or Indy ball talent should the org choose.
HITTER of the NIGHT: Jancel Villarroel (Eug), 4 for 6, HR, 3 R, 2 RBI
PITCHER of the NIGHT: Trystan Vrieling (Rich), 5.0 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 7 K
Let’s head to the lines, where many of the usual suspects were up to their old tricks…
