"The Curtain Goes Up" Edition of Free For All Mailbag
Photo Credit: Sacramento River Cats
We have games, we have comebacks, we have records and statlines and highlights! In other words, we have the start of a new season!
And what better way to celebrate than with a Free For All Mailbag? As was the case last year, I’ll try to make these a weekly thing on most Tuesdays throughout the season — though I should mention that I will be on assignment for two weeks at the end of April. Minor Lines will continue on a normal schedule during my break (as my Editor has kindly agreed to step in and take my place while I’m away — be nice to him everybody!), but we won’t be having any off-day mailbags or stats reviews during those two weeks (April 29 and May 6).
And, with that bit of housekeeping taken care of, let’s dive into the mailbag and see what’s on your minds as 2025 opens up!
Deborah Peterson
Why are there so many pitchers at Sacramento? Plus I see a couple of guys that jumped from High-A to Sac: Cole Foster and Jonah Cox. Is that because the other minor league teams start later? They certainly can't be ready for triple A yet can they?
Hi Deborah, I suspect your question was prompted by the exhibition game in Sacramento and the “roster” that was listed at that point on MiLB’s website. But that was prompted by the Giants bringing some extra bodies north with them for those exhibitions so that vets didn’t need to play all of those meaningless innings. Several players who have since been optioned or assigned down to Sacramento were still officially part of the Giants’ camp roster at the time of those games. Consequently, kids like Foster, Cox, Bo Davidson, and Adrián Sugastey got to come along for the exhibition ride — a nice reward for them at the end of camp — but they weren’t part of the Sacramento roster that started the season this weekend.
It is certainly true that there are a lot of pitchers on this list, however! The opening day roster gave Sacramento just a two-man bench — hardly a sustainable situation for a six-month baseball season. And it was probably an incredibly difficult decision even to winnow it down to just 17 pitchers — including the 40-man players who didn’t make the Giants’ active roster and all of the NRIs they had in camp, there were close to 30 available arms to choose from. Some of those are on the Development List at this point, which means they can easily be swapped onto the River Cats’ roster as well if they need to back off any other members of the staff.
Ultimately, the answer to your question is that there are a lot of pitchers in this organization who don’t fit on the major league staff right now, but who are major league ready. Heck, there are quite a few guys who will be repeating at Richmond who probably feel like they did well enough to advance as well — but there’s really no room at the inn at this point. It’s a good problem to have! But it also suggests that getting on — and staying on — the 40-man roster is going to be a highly competitive enterprise for the upper-level pitchers in this organization over the next few years. And sticking on the Giants’ active-roster staff will require real results. In theory, this should set the club up for some highly competitive pitching staffs in the years to come.
Is there any downside to the abundance of near major league ready players that got pushed down to AAA?
Downside? No, I don’t think so. Every club needs quality depth to supplement their big league roster, as injuries and other forms of attrition will invariably strike along the way. And this should set up a competitive environment in the upper levels of the organization, where players know they really have to bring their A games and prove out on the field to get continued opportunities.
John Feinstein’s great book on minor league life, Where Nobody Knows Your Name, is a must-read on the topic of Triple-A — the level where nobody really wants to be, and where it can be all too easy for players to fall into the toxic trap of believing they deserve to be in the majors. I highly recommend it — it’s an entertaining and highly informative read by a truly great sportswriter (who very sadly passed away just last month, at the far too young age of 69).
As that book underlines, the only way to get out of the purgatory of Triple-A is to perform better. Sacramento Manager Dave Brundage, a long-time vet of Triple-A life, is actually one of the people that Feinstein profiled in his tome, and Brundy certainly understands how to help his players navigate the tricky life on the doorstep of the big leagues. Focus on the work and let that be its own reward.
The Giants’ big league roster is hardly inviolable. There are several players in San Francisco still working to prove that they belong at that level. There will be opportunities. And everybody in a River Cats’ uniform has the ability to seize one and run with it — if they can find the adjustments that allow their gifts to flourish with consistency.
That’s a good environment in which to develop and a good situation for an organization. There’s no such thing as having too much talent (and, even if there were, the Giants are not in danger of suffering from the affliction currently).
Did you get a glimpse of Kyle Harrison before the 40-man roster guys picked and left camp? Him getting left of the rotation was stunning to me but apparently people tracking Spring Training stats thought it pretty unsurprising...
What does he need to work on?
No, Kyle didn’t come over to the minor league side before packing up and heading north for the fraternal exhibition game between Giants and Cats. (I did see Tristan Beck on the last day before they broke camp.)
I don’t think spring stats had much to do with the decision. Rather, it was mostly about health. I think the biggest thing for Harrison right now is to work on getting in a good place physically. As we heard this spring, he didn’t really get an offseason of work in — he was rehabbing the shoulder injury he suffered last year until literally days before camp opened. I was talking with a pitcher at Papago this weekend about the importance of having a normal offseason to focus on 1) improving aspects of performance, and 2) adding strength. Being in rehab mode just sets a player up for a slow and sometimes difficult first half.
I know the Giants were perpetually scrambling for innings coverage last year, but in retrospect, allowing Harrison to try to pitch through his shoulder injury was probably not worth the cost. That led to mechanical issues as well as greatly diminished velocity on the fastball, and they’re probably fortunate it didn’t lead to worse ripple effects. Given that the movement of Harrison’s slider is highly affected by his arm slot (if it drops too low, the slider flattens out more), I’d guess that wasn’t helped any by trying to pitch through pain either.
Add to all that, he caught an illness right at the start of camp that caused him to drop some 15 lbs. and lose strength, which had him working from behind the other candidates all camp. He was just behind from the get go and never had much opportunity to catch up (especially with Landen Roupp and Hayden Birdsong both performing so well).
Getting to Sacramento and building up his strength without having to worry about the imposing deadline of Opening Day is probably the best thing for him right now. His velocity has been generally good this spring (93-94 in his start on Saturday). Let him build up, get strong, get his velocity back where it needs to be, and just try to get himself in a good place physically. That’s the most important thing right now for him and for the organization. I believe we’ll see him starting games for the Giants before this year is over.
Are the River Cats set to open the season with just a two-man bench? If so, is this just an attempt to carry as many arms as possible? Or is it a lack of AAA ready players in the system?
Will Wade Meckler spend much if any time at 2B, with Marco Luciano, Grant McCray, and Hunter Bishop being the primary OF?
Carter Howell probably deserves a AAA promotion, which would give them a 3rd man on the bench, while AA has four other OFs (Vaun Brown, Turner Hill, Jairo Pomares, and Victor Bericoto. So I’m genuinely confused that he seems destined to start the year in Richmond again.
As I said above, a two-man bench obviously isn’t sustainable for long. Players are going to have day-to-day type health issues. The Giants will suffer injuries and need to call players up. There’s only so long you can go with just a back-up catcher and one other guy on the bench (though there was a club in the Eastern League that played with just a one-man bench for two weeks straight last summer). David Villar cleared waivers this weekend, and the Giants have outrighted him to Sacramento for a third bench player — though they’ll need to find a space on the roster for him, which likely means moving another pitcher to the Development List.
As for the ‘why,’ I do think that trying to protect as much upper-level pitching inventory as possible is driving this decision. The Giants have 21 pitchers on their 40-man (eight of whom have been optioned down), and they brought in a lot of interesting NRIs to camp this year, like Joel Peguero and Helcris Olivarez, both of whom were living at or above the 100-mph barrier in their relief appearances with Sacramento this weekend. It takes a lot of arms to get through a big league season, and the Giants want to keep as many of these guys as they can for the six months to come.
Meckler will be focusing strictly on the OF this year — taking grounders at the end of last year sounds like it was more of a lark than anything. And, sadly, he won’t be appearing anywhere for a little while, as he hurt himself stealing a base in the second game of the year. He’s been placed on the IL, with Bericoto called up to take his place.
I will say that I agree with you about Howell. I did think he deserved a shot at Triple-A after his strong 2024 season. I wasn’t surprised that he was initially ticketed for Richmond, given all the outfielders on the Sac roster (in addition to the four you named, Brett Auerbach can play the OF), but having Bericoto moved up instead of him to take Meckler’s place is an eyebrow-raising decision in my eyes — though it’s quite possible that they’re just looking at this as a quick temporary move to cover the next couple of days.
Were you surprised that Brett Wisely was left off the team?
Not particularly. This goes back to my answer to PGBreaker’s question above. I know there was a widespread thought that being a left-handed hitter gave him an advantage to making the team. But when the best argument in your favor is your profile, rather than your performance, it’s a shaky argument. Wisely has over 400 PA in the majors the last two years, and he hasn’t quite taken that opportunity and run with it. Like several other players on the periphery of this roster, he’s shown flashes, but hasn’t put things together consistently yet.
Wisely is a good athlete, a nice depth piece, but he really didn’t do much to push his case this spring, whereas Christian Koss really did grab eyes every time he was on the field. Koss hasn’t hit much in Triple-A in his career (nor in the Dominican winter league this year), so we’ll see if he can do more with his opportunity than Wisely has thus far. Koss is a better defender on the left side for sure, which will help keep him in the mix. Hopefully, he grabs this job and doesn’t give anybody the opportunity to take it back away from him.
As Dusty Baker once said: “I’m not in the giving it away business, I’m in the making you earn it business.” Ultimately, MLB is a performance league, not a development league — and it’s the toughest environment in the world in which to perform consistently. The only way to ensure future opportunities is to keep producing when you’re on the field. It’s a brutal reality, and all of those who choose to toss their hats into the arena deserve our total respect for taking on this enormous challenge.
Two questions concerning Carson Seymour, who I’ve been absolutely fascinated by since the Giants acquired him.
1. In perusing the Statcast logs of his Opening Day start, I noticed that Savant charted him throwing a number of what it was calling four-seam fastballs. I assumed this is because it had way less armside run than his usual fastball. But based on the locations and velo of the pitch, I actually think it might be a cutter- did you hear anything about Seymour messing around with one this spring?
2. Ever since you unearthed the nugget that Seymour throws his sinker with a four-seam grip, I’ve been wondering…why? If Carson gets that much run and sink on a pitch that’s not even supposed to move like that, wouldn’t actually using a two-seam grip make it an even more impressive pitch? Or is it the inverse? Like perhaps changing his grip wouldn’t yield much of a difference in movement at all, but would still force him to learn a new way to throw the fastball.
Yes! I did hear that Seymour was playing around with a couple of new pitches this spring. One of them is a cutter, and I think you might be quite right about the way that Savant was identifying them. The other was a slower curve, which I don’t think he threw at all in his opening night start, though I saw a few of them a week ago in camp. What I saw of that pitch didn’t suggest it was quite ready for prime time yet (he tended to throw through the break on the curve and left it spinning), but the cutter seems like it’s making some appearances.
As for your second question, it’s entirely possible that his explanation of his fastball to me two years ago is obsolete at this point — these guys go through a lot of experimentation in the course of the year. In one of the articles on The Carsons that popped up during spring training, I believe I saw him refer to a sinker, so I have to assume that he is throwing a two-seam grip at this point. I suspect that some pitch lab work subsequent to his time in Richmond has led him to something like the same point you’re making here.
As we’ve seen with Roupp, experimenting with new pitches is a big thing for guys if they want to remain starters. Having two great pitches can certainly help make things work as a starter, but there are always going to be those days when a certain pitch isn’t working, and it’s going to be hard to survive those outings with just one alternative. On the other hand, a pitcher like Zack Wheeler has just gotten better and better in his career because he’s continued to add new pitches to his mix along the way.
Seymour features one truly outstanding pitch in his slider, and has the power and strength to stand up to a starter’s workload. Building out his repertoire effectively is the next clear step on his path.
What would you do with Casey Schmitt? If Tyler Fitzgerald shows he’s capable of keeping the 2B job, then Schmitt really has no role with the Giants. Which bums me out, because I’m a huge fan of his. Would love to see him go to a place with a hole at 3B. Koss, Wisely, Osleivis Basabe, Sergio Alcantara, and hopefully Diego Velasquez can all be insurance/depth options at 2B at some point this year.
What’s a realistic return for Schmitt, and what would you or the Giants target in a return for him? An MLB LH reliever? A lottery ticket prospect or two? Mike Trout? (Almost completely joking on that last one…almost…)
I’d probably do exactly what the Giants are doing with him for now: giving him occasional opportunities to show that he can hit big league pitching. Nothing else is really going to matter without that element locking into place.
Let’s return to my answer on Wisely: now 26 and with just one more option remaining, Schmitt has to prove that he’s really a big leaguer this year. In almost 400 PA over the past two years, he’s been a below replacement level player, but there were signs of growth from the bat last year. In particular, he did a good job getting to his power against LHP, and it’s possible that some sort of platoon UT bat is going to be his ultimate role. I was glad to see him get the DH start on Saturday against lefty Nick Lodolo — that seems like a role that could set him up for some success for right now.
As for a return? Right now, I’d guess prospect from the back half of a top 30 in a good system, or perhaps a Triple-A flyer type who’s not a big prospect but has a decent performance record. If Schmitt soaks up some of the right-handed DH opportunities while Jerar Encarnacion is on the IL and shows that those power gains from last year were legit, that return could bump up a bit. I do know there has been some interest in him this spring (I’ve heard about two clubs that inquired about him), but it’s still a little bit of a tough fit until he proves that the bat plays.
He’s not really a middle infielder in my opinion (that increase in power has come with some concurrent thickening in the lower half that makes that option even less likely), but he hasn’t yet proven that he’s got the bat to be a starter at the corner. Just to make an obvious comparison, Isaac Paredes, who was a big part of the return to Houston in the Kyle Tucker trade, is, somewhat amazingly, the exact same age as Schmitt (born about three weeks earlier), and already has three 20-homer seasons in the majors. That’s the kind of player that Schmitt is competing against to attract the industry’s attention. When players get into their mid-20s, value is measured by a track record of success, not promise and potential. This will be an important season for Schmitt to establish that track record.
How detrimental is the current system to developing international starting pitchers and is there any chance that may change? Looking at the top prospect lists and top current MLB SPs the vast majority are drafted out of college or HS rather than the international side compared to hitters.
You’ve answered your own question, Jason. Last year, 58 starting pitchers qualified for an ERA title. By my count, only nine of them were signed as amateur international pitchers (I’m not counting pitchers who came over from Japan as veterans of the NPB). And, as you say, there really aren’t many great starting pitcher prospects in the upper minors who have come into baseball through the amateur international market. Giants fans need not look beyond their own team to find one of the most extreme examples of the situation — the last pitcher whom the Giants signed as an international amateur to start a game for them was, unbelievably, Salomon Torres, way back in 1994 (though a couple others have rather famously started for other teams).
This is a hobby horse I’ve been beating for decades — players signed on the international market are treated by the rules identically to US players drafted out of high school, despite signing younger and with less experience against high level competition. Because players who are signed at age 16 are given the same number of years before they become Rule 5 eligible as players who are signed at 18, they often face increased pressure to speed up their development, pushing them into bullpen roles.
Unsurprisingly then, a lot of the international pitchers who are currently starting in the majors are guys who weren’t all that highly thought of coming up through the minors. Because they were never really serious Rule 5 or 40-man protection candidates, they ironically were given the full time to develop their crafts, succeeding all the way up the ladder — that basic description would fit Houston’s Framber Valdez (and several other members of the Astros’ rotation), the Phillies’ Christopher Sanchez, the Brewer’s Nestor Cortes, and even Minnesota All Star Pablo Lopez (whose highest ranking as a prospect was the #25 prospect in Miami’s system). Sometimes it’s an advantage to be on the slower, less noticed development path.
As to whether this might change, certainly there has never been any interest on MLB’s part in fixing this patently unfair situation — at least, not intentionally. Unintentionally, however, a major change did come about as a result of the pandemic. When clubs were looking for ways to limit costs during the revenue-free summer of 2020, they pushed the international signing date from its traditional July 2nd opening into mid-January. This had the effect of giving international signees one additional year before they were Rule 5 eligible (because the draft’s December date is the key factor in eligibility). We shall see if this contributes in the long run to more starting pitchers coming through the international market.
I want to be the first idiot to ask how soon Bryce Eldridge gets called up. I am guessing he needs at least two months playing first to handle the position at the majors. With Wilmer Flores and LaMonte Wade, Jr. healthy, there is no rush even with Encarnacion out for a month. So, he would probably need to be hitting two bombs a week to force the issue but IMHO I don’t see him up as long as those 3 are performing. Thoughts?
Bad news, Barry: I don’t think you’re the first person to ask that question by any stretch. Other bad news, Eldridge has spent most of the spring dealing with some pain in his wrist, and is almost certain to open the year back in Papago with the rehab group, which will certainly slow down his rapid progress towards a big league debut.
In fact, I believe I saw the lone game that Eldridge took part in at minor league camp during my recent trip to Scottsdale. After missing about two and a half weeks of action, he played in a game two days after I arrived, but was removed after two at bats. The following day he was listed in the lineup, but scratched before game time, and he didn’t dress for a game after that.
So, we’ll need to see how long his rehab lasts before we can even begin to make any guesses at a big league call up.
One thing that the Giants have been very clear about this winter, however, is that under Buster Posey and Randy Winn, they are going to be more deliberate about moving players up through the levels. They want to see guys dominate their levels, and they want to give them the time to really learn the game before forcing them upwards. That suggests to me that, when he’s healthy enough to participate, we’ll see Eldridge return to the Double-A level for a while, to show that he really has mastered that all-important challenge before receiving the next one. On this week’s There R Giants’ podcast (coming soon), MLB’s Jim Callis said he believes Eldridge’s realistic timeline is a 2026 debut.
Ultimately, I believe that it is Eldridge’s performance that will determine when he makes his debut. The Giants are going to make decisions based on his development first and foremost, and not as a contingency plan to what is going on with other players. They are going to be patient with this young man, and try to put him in the best possible situation to succeed long-term.
Hi Roger - thanks for the amazing coverage! Great article in The Athletic on the Bednar Brothers which made me wonder if you had any Will sightings this spring and where you think his development is at....
Thanks Nick! And let me take this opportunity once again to thank all of my paid subscribers. It’s your support that allows me to do what I do, and cover this farm system as thoroughly as I’m able.
As for Bednar, I saw him physically quite a few times. It looks like he’s put on some muscle in the off-season, and he’s also rocking a new pair of glasses. It sounds like there were some vision issues last year for Will, which presumably played a role in his high walk rate in Richmond.
I didn’t see him pitch until my final day at camp, however. He threw one inning, and was sitting 93-95 with his fastball (topping out at 95.4 mph). He unleashed a terrific slider to end his work with a K.
To the question of where he is in his development, let me repeat a story I told last week in my camp notes. The Giants recently signed a pitcher named Dylan Hecht, who turned 31 last weekend, has never pitched in affiliated ball, and last appeared in even an Independent League in 2021. He’s been pitching in adult rec leagues around the Phoenix area since then. But he got an opportunity to pitch in front of some scouts this spring with the showcase club, Asian Breeze, and caught the Giants’ eye. He’s been up to 99 mph with his fastball in bullpen sessions, and they’re highly intrigued with what he might do with some real development support at his disposal. As Farm Director Kyle Haines told me, if he makes it to the big leagues, Disney is going to make a movie about him.
There are a couple of different lessons one can draw from that story: 1) if you’re a pitcher, it’s never too late to make an impression; and 2) if you’re a pitcher, you’re also competing in a world where random guys are out there chucking it 99 in anonymous rec leagues.
Like his older brother, Bednar is a full-on reliever now, and, if he performs well in that role, he can absolutely shoot himself up to the big leagues in a hurry. But he’s also going to be competing against guys like the aforementioned Peguero and Olivarez, who are pretty consistently flirting with triple digits. That’s the bar that he’s going to have to surpass to grab an opportunity for himself.
In the last appearance I saw from Bednar in 2024, he was hitting 97 with a fastball with good shape, and attacking the strike zone with his slider in a way that really made an impression on me. If he can be that guy on a consistent basis, then I think he can definitely put himself on a trajectory to make the big leagues. But it’s kind of where we are with baseball these days, that an explosive 97-mph fastball is essentially a minimum standard for most guys to pitch out of a big league bullpen (not you, Tyler!). Hopefully, coming off of a normal, healthy off-season for really the first time in his career (that idea again), Will is finally going to be able to show what he can really do in the upcoming year.
One thing I’ve never quite understood…
Who actually makes the draft picks? Over the past six years, was Michael Holmes making the picks mostly unilaterally, with maybe some (consultation with/input from) Farhan Zaidi? Or was Farhan calling the shots, with Michael Holmes acting in accordance with Farhan’s marching orders? Or was it a combination of the two, with maybe Farhan holding sway over the early round picks, then Holmes handling things on his own with the later rounds?
I’ve always believed that the Scouting Director gathered up all the recommendations from his scouts and cross-checkers, did his own scouting, and then made his picks. I’ve always believed the GM/PBO had scant involvement, other than maybe setting some guidelines for types of players to go after, along with some budget constraints. Now I’m wondering if Farhan was much more hands-on in the process of things, and if he even was more involved in early round selections.
In summary, and to put it in overly simple terms: Was Hunter Bishop a Michael Holmes pick, or was he a Farhan Zaidi pick?
Well, Bishop is an easy call because Michael Holmes wasn’t actively involved in that Draft Day for the Giants. He had joined the Giants very late in that draft year process, and just before the draft, his wife tragically passed away and he was with his family while the draft was being conducted that year. But I get that your question is broader than that single instance.
This is a murky area of baseball ops, but let me start by directing you to Kiley McDaniel and Eric Longenhagen’s book, Future Value, which is an essential resource for all such questions about how modern front offices work. One thing that comes up over and over in that book is that there is no one way of doing things. As they wrote at the time,
one GM won’t enter the draft room until draft day and has barely any input on the process, while another makes literally every pick himself for all 40 rounds. We also hear from area scouts who know they can’t get a player because he isn’t “model friendly” and so it doesn’t matter what their report says about the player, since there isn’t enough weight on reports in the model, much less the scout’s individual reports.
As the authors also make perfectly clear, it’s almost impossible to get anybody on the record about what each specific GM or POBO’s individual approach to this is, so it’s not likely that we’ll ever know with any precision who was making specific calls during the Giants’ drafts.
What I think we can say for sure is that Zaidi was fully in control of the team’s draft model, and specifically, how various inputs were weighted. I think we can assume that statistical performance (with all of the under the hood data that teams can now acquire) played a big role in that model, though, as we can also tell from draft picks like Reggie Crawford, data wasn’t everything.
By most accounts I’ve gotten over the past few years, Zaidi was pretty into the weeds with all of his departments during his time running the Giants. My best guess — and that’s all this is — is that Zaidi probably made the call for the Giants’ 1st round picks, and maybe even their Day One picks (1st, 2nd, and Comp rounds), and within the parameters of Zaidi’s specific priorities and players values, left Holmes and Co. to do most of the work in lower rounds on Days Two and Three. And I think that’s probably in line with the way the team was run in Brian Sabean’s day as well. First round selections are important — they’re one of the most impactful avenues of player acquisition that a head of Baseball Ops oversees — and it’s not surprising that a lot of the top executives will want to have significant input into those decisions.
For the World Series Parade this fall, do you think they should liven things up with a route change? Instead of cars down Market, maybe send everyone on Cable Cars up and over Nob Hill to Aquatic Park? Could deliver speeches from a barge out in Aquatic Cove maybe?
I like your attitude, jazz! Let’s shoot for the moon with our expectations. The time for hope is now.
I’m a fan of beaches myself. Is there a way that we can wind this maybe around the Presidio and down around North Beach on the way to Oracle Park? Give me ocean waves as far as I can see and I’m usually in a pretty celebratory mood!
And with that said, let’s close up the bag for this week, and get to watching some games! I’ll be back tomorrow with one of our club previews, leading up to Friday night’s big opening. See you at the ball yard, everybody!
Thanks so much for the answers Roger! I’ve never left a mailbag of yours without feeling like I learned something of great interest.
Love the Dusty Baker quote and your follow up thoughts. Why I love baseball.