"The End is Nigh" Edition of the Free For All Mailbag

Photo Credit: Mick Anders | Richmond Flying Squirrels

This is the final regular season week of A-ball action is upon us (though both of the Giants’ teams will continue at least three games beyond that), and the Double-A schedule lasts just one week after that. Temperatures have dipped down to a pre-fall cool (the most pleasant time of the year where I live).

All of which means that we must soon learn to live without live action baseball for another cruel winter. But it doesn’t mean that we have to quit talking about baseball. Oh no, the free for all mailbags will still be here to sustain you — as well as the usual assortment of off-season topics that keep the light burning here at There R Giants! Yup, ranking season is a-coming folks.

But, let’s not rush along this season before it’s concluded. There could still be plenty of surprises in store. Still present in this 2025 moment, I untie the mailbag to see what’s on your mind as the denouement begins to rise to its moment.

Graham L

How’s it been transitioning from your old career to a reporter/writer? You’re a good interviewer but is it hard to ask people for favors?

Ironically, both my old career and this work require me to be very forward with people — which absolutely goes against every fibre of my being. I am, by nature, quite a shy and introverted person. So, yes, it is the hardest thing in the world for me to approach other people, ask for things, or start up conversations with strangers — all of which I need to be able to do to do this work well and deliver you folks the content you deserve. I force myself to do it as well as I can, but I don’t think that aspect of this “job” will ever feel remotely natural to me. It’s very forced, and, at least from my perspective, awkward.

I’m on better footing in formal interview settings, because I was a video and TV producer for years and that sort of structured environment is much easier for me. And generally, I think I’m pretty good at listening to answers and creating the flow of a conversation (although, there are the occasional “brain dead” interviews where I just can’t sync things up very well in my mind). But, making connections, striking up acquaintances with scouts, texting people and asking for favors, or making sure I go up and get some face time with Giants’ officials when we’re at the same place — those are things I very consciously have to force myself to go through with.

The happy part is that once I force myself into those uncomfortable settings, I often find the interaction itself extremely gratifying (not to mention informative, which is the point). Not always, of course, but frequently. Sadly, it’s probably human nature that I have more of a tendency to chew over the few that go poorly than to reflect happily on the ones that go well. Such is life.

In my former career, by the way, I had to run public meetings — often very contentious ones — and often served as facilitator or moderator in a variety of public settings. You can imagine how much I enjoyed that role!

MikeH

Great to see Ryan Murphy back pitching at Richmond. Can you see him getting picked up in the minor league Rule 5 draft like fellow 2020 draftees Nick Swiney and Jimmy Glowenke or can the Giants protect him without adding him to 40-man?

Yes, I agree! It has been great to see Murphy get back on the bump.

The short answer to your question, Mike, is “Yes.” To protect players from the major league portion of the Rule 5 draft, teams must place players on their major league 40-man roster. To protect players from the minor league phase of the Rule 5 draft, they need to place them on the Triple-A roster, which expands to 38 roster spots for this purpose. Teams don’t always use all 38 roster spots — sometimes they’ll keep one or two open so that they can make selections from other teams if they so desire.

That still isn’t enough protection to cover everyone. The Giants have, by my count, 50 players who are going to be Rule 5 eligible this year. Many of those aren’t at all consideration for protection on the Triple-A roster — the Giants won’t lose a lot of time deliberating on whether to protect Jose G. Gonzalez and Luis Frias, for instance — but many of them will be difficult choices, and some will have to be left on the Double-A roster and exposed to the draft. And that’s without even considering the various minor league free agents that the team will no doubt be signing between now and then.

Just to plug my off-season work a little, one of the things that I think my Way Too Early Roster Preview series does is clarify where there are going to be upcoming roster squeezes. The players lost in last year’s minor league Rule 5 draft were all players who I had noted in the Roster Previews didn’t have clear paths to playing time or roster spots (assuming full health). The Giants, of course, are performing a similar (though much better informed) internal process, which in part guides who does and doesn’t get protected on the Triple-A roster.

Here’s the list (to the best of our ability to compile it), see how long it takes you to get up to 30 protection candidates for the Triple-A roster:

Rule 5 Eligible (48): Aeverson Arteaga, Jose Astudillo, Will Bednar, John Michael Bertrand, Sam Bower, Brayan Cabello, Jan Caraballo, Samir Chires, Jack Choate, Reggie Crawford, R.J. Dabovich, Ricardo Estrada, Junior Flores, Marlon Franco, Luis Frias, Nate Furman, Evan Gates, Thomas Gavello, Jose G. Gonzalez, Carter Howell, Marques Johnson, Seth Lonsway, Gerelmi Maldonado, Donovan McIntyre, Manuel Mercedes, Spencer Miles, Zach Morgan, Ryan Murphy, Tyler Myrick, Brayan Palencia, Cesar Perdomo, Jose T. Perez, Onil Perez, Jose Ramos, Braxton Roxby, Liam Simon, Nick Sinacola, Adrian Sugastey, Fernando Vasquez, Diego Velasquez, Diego Villegas, Ian Villers, Esmerlin Vinicio, Tyler Vogel, Trystan Vrieling, Ryan Watson, Hayden Wynja, Nick Zwack.

Two more quick things: 1) the Triple-A protection roster is, unfortunately, never made publicly available, so there’s no way to know who is in danger of being plucked in the minor league phase; and 2) Glowenke actually wasn’t selected by another team in the Rule 5 draft. He came to minor league camp with the Giants this year and was released at the end of it.

Trevor York

I know Bryce Eldridge has some things to work on at the plate, but there’s been a lot of conversation about him being ready defensively. Is there any reason why he necessarily has to be a 1B? Seems like Rafael Devers can at minimum play an average first base if not better and Eldridge’s defense ceiling seems more like just average. I know a top prospect DH isn’t as appealing, but the Giants could always use a power bat.

Jonathan

With Eldridge's path to the MLB seemingly blocked by Devers at 1B for the foreseeable future, is there a path for him to be a DH/Pitcher since he was originally drafted as a 2-way player? Or has his pitching side been pretty much abandoned now?

John B

I’m pleasantly surprised to see how well Devers has handled his move to first base. I’ve also been encouraged by the reports on how quickly Eldridge himself has progressed there, and how much he’s benefited from J.T. Snow’s tutoring. But it does seem to set up a logjam at first base.

What I’ve been hearing all along is that the Giants are determined not to have Eldridge’s career begin at DH. And Devers seems best suited to playing first base.

So, I’m wondering about an option that I thought was out of the question…Eldridge playing outfield.

Lots of questions and concerns over Eldridge’s fit on the roster! I would say that the Giants don’t want to consign their 20-year-old top prospect to DH-only duty. A lot of athleticism in the body is of a “use it or lose it” variety, and severely limiting a player’s athletic movement, time on their feet, and stop/start motions, and coordinated activities necessary to, say, field a grounder is likely to have repercussions down the road. On top of that, many, if not most players, find DH duty actually pretty difficult, because you’re so removed from the feel and pace of the game. There aren’t really that many players in the league today — or in past history — who have excelled at doing nothing but batting every 9th turn thru the order. The Big Papis and Shoheis of the world are a pretty rare breed.

And no, Jonathan, pitching is no longer on the table. Outfield? We’ll see about that. Eldridge is not exactly fleet of foot, and giving him another major lift to learn is just going to slow down his advance to the majors. Could he sort of Michael Morse or Travis Ishikawa his way out there? Maybe that’s an option they return to at some point. I’m mostly of a “these things tend to work themselves out” mind on this. The position that he’s most likely to be competent at is 1b, but the big focus right now is on getting the bat ready. Once that happens, they’ll find a way to work it out.

For those of you who haven’t listened to Alex Pavlovic’s excellent interview with Eldridge, he talks quite a bit about his love of pitching and positional journey. I’d highly recommend giving it a listen.

And you might be interested in my conversations with Bryce over the past couple of years as well.

jazz_case

Eldridge is #13 on MLB Pipeline's Top-100 prospect list and isn't yet on the 40-man roster. His trade value may be higher right now than it ever will be. I've read before that the offseason is the best time to move a valuable player since all teams are looking to add, as opposed to the deadline, when it's just a handful. Also, 1B Devers is signed through 2033, and Heliot Ramos (FA in 2030) has the team's lowest Defensive Runs Above Average, suggesting he may be a DH sooner rather than later.

So, thought exercise: what kind of return would it take for you, Roger (GM for a day), to sign off on moving the large slugger before the Cactus League report date? Not names of particular targets necessarily, more curious about the overall framework of the deal that would move you enough to pull the trigger.

Ah, Jazz has a very different approach to the Eldridge/Devers conundrum, I see! However, I’m sure that Jazz is just looking for a “kick the tires” theoretical assessment, rather than fully suggesting that this is his preferred approach to the situation.

Let me start by taking your thought exercise at face value on the baseball side, and then I’ll finish with a couple of non-baseball contextual considerations.

The way most current front offices will view transactions is, broadly put, something highly transactional like this:

1. Teams have an internal grade for all their players (let’s go ahead and use MLB’s 60 grade here for Eldridge)

2. They assign a dollar figure of production to that grade. Fangraphs actually does this publicly, so let’s use their calculation just for easy illustration. A 60-grade player is someone who returns above average starter value, so someone who is fairly consistently in the 3-6 WAR level every year. Yordan Alvarez is something like a best-case outcome comp to the type of player Eldridge is, so let’s use him. By Fangraphs’ WAR/$$ market calculator, Alvarez has produced $185 million worth of baseball value in his career (that’s intended to be a marker of what a player’s value on the free agent market would equate to), while landing squarely in that 3-6 WAR range in every healthy year of his career. For illustrative purposes, we might want to use something like a $180m value for a 60-grade slugger. If you object to using a guy who is in the argument for best pure hitter in the game as a comp (a perfectly valid objection), I’d note that Willy Adames, who gets to similar value in different ways, was worth about $170 million in his pre-FA years, so the number is somewhere around there.

3. Every team will then have a risk-based calculation to assess the likeliness of any 60-grade prospect actually becoming a 60-grade MLB player, diminishing that value accordingly. These calculations are all secret and unique, but I think we can all see that the likelihood of anybody who might have a Yordan-type skillset actually turning into Yordan himself is quite low, so we need to reduce that value number. Taking a hammer to a daisy, I’m just going to chop that number in half and say we’re looking for $85 million in value in any return — again just because I’m trying to give you an idea of how teams might think, the specific details of these sorts of transactional models are all behind the curtain and are different from team to team.

So, the end result there is that you want to be acquiring a player who seems likely to return some $80-100 million in value over the next few years. That’s something like a 4 WAR player with three years of control left at pre-arb rates (obviously, if you’re talking about players like Devers himself, with significant financial commitments attached, the calculation is entirely different — and we know that the Giants refused to include Eldridge in those talks).

Pre-arb 4-WAR hitters would put you in the area of guys like Elly de la Cruz, Gunnar Henderson (based on this year’s production, not on last year’s monster season), or Wyatt Langford. So, you could think about a trade like that which exchanges Eldridge’s extra controllable years for the greater certainty of these players who have proved their worth at the major league level. The problem, of course, is that teams who already have pre-arb star position players usually aren’t too eager to exchange them for pre-MLB maybe stars — unless something is specifically dinging the value of that player with his current team, and they want to rid themselves of a potentially distressed asset before he becomes too distressed (this from a front office’s perspective — but let’s just stop here to note that thinking of human beings as “assets” is inherently icky). I’ll also note here that I absolutely would not put Adley Rutschman in this category, though he does have 3-4 WAR years in his past. I honestly don’t expect him to be returning to those offensive performances going forward, and certainly not if you moved him to Oracle Park, where his warning-track power is going to be diminished even further. Count me against any potential Eldridge for Rutschman deal.

Assuming that the Orioles aren’t going to dangle Gunnar, nor the Reds move on from Elly, there are not many players of this type that I could even conceive of as being fits. Maybe the one who would be the best fit for the Giants’ current needs is NorCal native, Joe Ryan. He’s not as young as those players mentioned above, and he probably doesn’t have their ceilings. But he’s been a very consistent SP2-type player who returns on average between $20-25 million in value every season. With two more arbitration years ahead before hitting free agency, that’s around a $50 million value and maybe a shot at extending him further (his mom’s a big Giants’ fan, you know!). That’s not quite as much value as I’d penciled in above, but the Giants are probably going to be on the hunt for a frontline pitcher this winter, and the market for those guys is always at a premium.

The other type of player who you could think about is the suddenly and perhaps very shockingly tradeable Ketel Marte. He’s an older player who is more like Devers than he is like that group of young valuable players. But he puts himself into the conversation because, at his best, he’s even better than a 60-grade player — getting up over 6 WAR multiple times in his career — while playing on an extremely team-friendly contract that pays him less than $15 million a year for five more seasons. Of course, he’s 31 and already dealing with a myriad of physical issues that hamper his playing time, so you don’t know how many of those five seasons are going to give you the great version of Marte. But that’s another value proposition that is worth considering. Marte has had seasons where Fangraphs assigned him more than $50m in value, but most of his seasons are more in line with the $20-30m proposition suggested above.

That, I think, is a good enough look at the baseball side of this argument. There is, however, a non-baseball element here as well. The reason the Giants were willing to take on a contract widely considered to be “underwater” by more transactionally focused front offices is that they have been frustrated so many times before in their pursuit of impact bats. Using the trade method allowed them to finally land a big fish without the player himself getting to “yes.” Eldridge offers the potential of the same thing for the next generation. If he hits offensively the way most evaluators believe he will, then the pressure will be greatly reduced on the front office over the next decade to pursue those types of players — and I think we know at this point that the franchise does not want to be forced into that position of trying to land a star, which has only led to disappointment and bitterness over the past decade. A related, but slightly different, element to be considered is the organization’s desire to prove it can still develop homegrown stars — something that is openly hungered for at virtually every level of concern for the team, from the owners’ suites to the fans in the bleachers.

Those considerations give Eldridge another layer of value that is hard to account for in the transactional model. Yes, there may be good baseball deals to be made with his value that would make good sense from a roster building perspective moving forward — but the chance of hitting on a home-grown star slugger, which would answer so many long-term questions for this franchise, could make it almost impossible to pull the trigger on any of those “good sense baseball deals.” For myriad reasons, stretching from the team’s baseball ops to its business model, and even its reputation inside and outside the industry, they really need to hit a gusher with Eldridge. And that need would weigh pretty heavily on the scales of any potential trade talks.

Of course, that’s exactly what prevents most teams from moving prospects when their value is at its highest. When it comes to predicting prospects’ futures, it’s always impossible to know exactly whether you’re standing at the base of the mountain, and when you’re at the peak.

Brian Warnes

As someone that regularly watches Pacific Coast League games, what are your thoughts on a team potentially ending up in Salt Lake City? I lived in Utah for a while and to me it seems like they would have the same problems as Colorado with pitchers struggling to keep the ball in the park. And while the owners would hopefully be more competent than the ones in Denver, they would also be operating in an even smaller market.

You’ve answered the question as well as I could, Brian. I’m entirely on your viewpoint on this issue. I suppose Nashville, Charlotte, and maaaaaaaybe Portland would top my list. But I have to say, the Commissioner has said for years that expansion couldn’t be considered until the A’s’ and Rays’ stadium situations have been cleared up, and both of those situations are less clear than ever in my opinion. I also think it’s worth considering that the last several expansions have brought teams with perpetual fanbase issues into the league, including both Florida teams and the D’backs (those unfortunate Rockies’ fans are really the exception in those two rounds). So, I don’t really have high hopes for another expansion turning out to be all that beneficial for the game, whenever it does happen.

I always try to leave myself open to being pleasantly surprised, however.

RogerForTheHall

High A playoffs schedule. Will Eugene be in Everett, WA for games 3,4 & 5, September 12, 13 & 14?

Yes. Roger, that is the schedule. Games 1 and 2 will be played in Eugene a week from now on September 9 and 10 (tickets are on sale now!). The series will then move to Everett for the final games (however many prove necessary), beginning September 12. Go out and give them a cheer folks!

SlightlyOff

He’s only been in the org for two months, so my apologies if this is a question you just don’t have the data to answer the way you want: how fast is Trevor Cohen? He’s had all the “runs well/can handle center” scouting talk, but it’s been so long since the Giants have had players who can use their speed as a true in-game weapon. I’m hoping that’ll be more common as part of Posey’s “contact, speed, defense” focus, and I’ve been wondering if that’s expected to be a big part of Cohen’s game, or if his main carrying tool is just meant to be that *points at Jonah Hill* he gets on base.

My general feeling is that there are only three kinds of players when it comes to this: guys who are really fast, guys who are really slow, and everybody else. My looks at Cohen last week were enough to convince me that he runs well, but I don’t think he’s one of those really fast guys. He’s not fast in the way that Grant McCray is, or Dakota Jordan, or the now-released Vaun Brown — guys who force you to take a sharp intake of breath from the thrill of watching them run. I don’t think he’s as fast as even a 27-year-old version of Hunter Bishop.

Checking with my good friend, Brian Recca, his scouting trips to Rutgers would seem to back up my general sense. I asked Brian what times he had from home-1b on Cohen from college, and the answer was “mostly in the 4.2s.” That’s solidly a 50-grade, or average runner (for lefties, 4.2-4.3 times to 1b are considered to be 50-grade).

That is not to say that Cohen won’t use speed as a big part of his game. A lot of speed-based offense is simply willingness and attitude to push things. That’s been a topic of conversation lately as the burly Josh Naylor keeps racking up SB (a very typical strategy for players entering free agency; Adames and Aaron Judge are other examples of players hitting career highs in SB in their walk years).

But I also think back to a moment that seemed to really herald a better style of play for this Giants’ team in this last month — when Jung Hoo Lee stole 2b and then made a dash for 3b on a ball that skipped away just a few feet. You could feel the energy that play gave the team in New York, and Lee’s speed, at 70th percentile in MLB, is more good than great. An aggressive mentality is every bit as important as the reading on the stop watch.

Oh shoot, better give you a little Cohen action for this question as well…

Mighty Joe

Peering into your crystal ball to next March, who will be fighting for a spot on the active roster next Opening Day? And you don’t have to exclude the big guy.

I guess I would say that most of the candidates are pretty obvious ones — though you say that and the next thing you know, Christian Koss is on the plane heading north.

Certainly, Eldridge should be competing for an Opening Day spot. I think it’s highly likely that he makes this team better next year, and I also think the front office would be wise to consider putting themselves in a position to reap the benefits of any PPI draft picks that Eldridge could deliver them. I’ve mentioned this in passing and gotten some quizzical responses from some readers, so, in brief: the Prospect Promotion Incentive (PPI) was part of the last CBA. It’s a device intended to give teams an incentive to place their top prospects on the opening day rosters, and disincline teams from playing service time games with potentially popular players. If a player who is on two of the three primary Top 100 lists makes the Opening Day roster as a rookie (or comes up within the first two weeks of the season), their team will receive a high draft pick (in the Comp round) if that player either wins the Rookie of the Year Award, or finishes in the top three of MVP/CYA voting in their second or third seasons. Obviously there’s no certainty of getting this compensation, but there are already several instances of teams intentionally setting themselves up for a PPI pick and collecting on the gambit (the D’backs with Corbin Carroll, the O’s with Gunnar Henderson, and the Royals with Bobby Witt, Jr. all had the PPI in mind with the timing of their major league promotions and ended up with extra picks). For a club like the Giants who are looking to re-boot their farm — and who would seem to have limited opportunities for valuable QO free agents in the coming years — this is a strategy to be very intentional about. It’s not a good enough reason to add Eldridge to the roster if they simply feel he’s not ready — but it could be a decent tie breaker if they’re hedging!

But let me return to the question. I think that we can assume that Carson Whisenhunt, Hayden Birdsong, Blade Tidwell, and maybe Carson Seymour will all be in competition for the 5th starter spot, with Whisenhunt, Birdsong, and Tidwell probably having the best shots. Jesus Rodriguez will have a very real chance to compete for the backup catcher role, I would think. Luis Matos and Drew Gilbert are already starting their competition for an outfield role next year, and Grant McCray will be fighting for a spot as well. Koss and Tyler Fitzgerald will probably continue fighting with each other for the backup infielder role (Brett Wisely, who is out of options, doesn’t figure to be in the mix I would say).

And then there’s the bullpen. Expect a mass of NRI arms to show up next year as the team attempts to rebuild its bullpen without Camilo Doval, Tyler Rogers, or Randy Rodriguez (who is very likely to undergo Tommy John surgery, sadly). In addition to free agents (bring back Rogers!), and a new crop of MiLB FA (like Joel Peguero) or NRI, almost anybody invited to camp could open eyes and force themselves into the picture, the way that Spencer Bivens did two years ago. From my experience watching the upper levels this year, I guess I’d say that Braxton Roxby, Trent Harris, or Will Bednar make the most sense as “sleeper” candidates who could pop with strong camps, the same way Roupp did in 2024. But if you want to go way outside the box, maybe a post-surgery Reggie Crawford or Juan Sanchez could show up and open some eyes on the coaching staff? A return engagement with the hard-throwing Helcris Olivárez wouldn’t be a crazy idea either, and Tidwell and Birdsong could easily pitch their way into relief roles if they don’t nab a starting spot. Really, when it comes to relievers though, it’s anybody’s guess. Two hot weeks can make all the difference in the world in spring training.

Pushing a little beyond the confines of your question, Bo Davidson obviously isn’t going to compete for a big league position in the spring of 2025. But I am kinda interested to see if he gets a camp invite as a reward for his great year. He’s showing the ability to make adjustments to the Double-A level, which is often a strong consideration for camp time. He’d likely be shipped out early even if invited, but it’s still a sign that a young player is on the right path — and the chance to work with the big league coaching staff, and interact with veteran players can be invaluable for a youngster.

John M

Regarding September expansion: we seem to know exactly what we have in AAA outfield with one exception. Can you see Bishop leapfrogging over Luciano and Wisely to see whether he gets dropped or has a spring invite?

We can always find a 60-day spot to camp someone. Matos seems to be on a hot streak, pushing him past Encarnation. Bishop seems to have the athleticism to at least get a decent look before Rule 5 takes him away.

I see his upside over a few off the “all hit, so-so fielders” we seem to have plenty of.

John, sorry to say, I really can’t see that happening. Bishop has seen his playing time de-prioritized this year when the River Cats had a full suite of outfielders, even going on the development list at one point — which is really just a place to deactivate guys at the bottom of the team’s depth chart. Those kinds of moves tell a tale of where Bishop sits in relation to his Sacramento teammates and other players at his position on the 40-man. And there’s good reason for that. As sad as Bishop’s career has been, with a seemingly unending array of injuries keeping him off the field and away from needed reps for years, the plain fact is that his performance the last two years has not really justified a big league opportunity — and certainly not one that leapfrogs over McCray, Luciano, Gilbert, and Wade Meckler.

As a Triple-A player, he hasn’t hit for much power (which was probably his biggest carrying tool when he came into pro ball), hasn’t gotten on base at an average clip, and hasn’t meaningfully improved his ability to make contact in the strike zone. His slash line this year of .260/.326/.428 is well below PCL average in all three categories. That has improved through the course of the season — he’s slashed .296/.360/.511 since June 1, which is a positive sign for him. But I still don’t see him jumping over the many outfielders ahead of him — Bob Melvin said yesterday that he didn’t really see much playing time for McCray this September, so it’s hard to see what the case would be to get Bishop on the team.

Bishop is set to become a minor league FA at the end of the year. We’ll see whether or not the Giants choose to re-sign him and bring him back next year to be a part of the mix and try to prove his worth in 2026, when he’ll be turning 28.

David Hobstetter

Apologies for the multiple questions, but they are in a sense variations on a theme. I was looking at pictures of the Felipe Alou Baseball Academy, and it is an impressive looking campus. To what extent do you think the organization’s signing of Josuar Gonzalez and presumably Luis Hernandez signal improvements in approach or presence versus the team being in the middle of a somewhat fortunate run? Have you seen the Posey regime pretty much hold the course on this, or have there been further changes? Relatedly, players tend to come to MLB from Asia at an older age than Latin America, so the approach in Latin America may not be well tailored for Asia, but is there anything the Giants can do (or are doing) there to improve the organization’s reputation among the top Asian players? Does none of this matter because it’s just about the size of the contract they offer?

I actually think that the Giants’ upturn in fortunes from the international scouting department go back several years at this point, back to 2018 or 2017. They’ve had strong international classes and brought real talent into the system virtually every year since then, and yes, to some degree that does relate to the timeframe for opening the Felipe Alou Academy, which really is a gorgeous facility. In the Eldridge interview with Alex Pavlovic above, at one point Eldridge mentions that after being brought in to Papago Park for a private workout and seeing that gorgeous facility, he was pretty excited to learn he’d be a Giant. The facility in the Dominican Republic (which has received one extensive update/expansion since originally being built 10 years ago) bears a lot in common with the Papago facility — in fact, the two were designed and overseen by the same man, so that makes sense — and presumably, the teenagers who get to work out there are equally impressed.

But allow me to let Giants’ Senior International Scouting Director, Joe Salermo, to answer this question in full, as I asked him an almost identical version of it a couple of years ago when he was first on my podcast:

There are different reasons why the wave [of international talent] is so strong now. First of all, our facility [which opened in the fall of 2016] is a state-of-the-art facility. It’s a great recruiting tool. It’s a great place for us to give instruction, to use data. It’s just an upgrade over what we had years ago. And we can teach The Giants Way there in a comfortable setting and we can have a comfortable schedule for the kids to learn what to do. So, it’s just been a great tool for us, that facility.

But I also think that our processes became clearer [around 2017]. I think it started with the Camilo Doval, the Kervin Castro, Alex Canario, Ricardo Genovés years. I think our scouts had a better understanding of what the process was. We focus on identifying the tools, the skills, the makeup, the role of the player. Our scouts started to get to know the players better, interacting with the family and making home visits. Our education department got involved.

I really think the process became clearer. As a Director, I think you have to be at the front line of the international scouting world because these kids change. You remember when you’re 13, 14, 15, I remember I’d change every month. We can go see the same player three straight months and see a totally different player each month. You have to be at the front line of this process. And the agents, the players, and the family have to be comfortable with you. By you being visible, they become a little easier to deal with and the kids get to enjoy their surroundings better.

I’m a big believer that you need to get down and interact with people. I think that was a change that we made. And we became aggressive. We became aggressive with premium position players. We split our looks from our cross-checkers and our looks around the world, especially in the DR and Venezuela. We weren’t seeing players at the same time. You could see a player as a cross-checker and I could see the same player three months later and we could have a different opinion. But we communicated and interacted to make one final decision. So, I think it just became clearer.

There R Giants Pod-43 with Joe Salermo

Now, that doesn’t mean that the Giants are going to sign the top talent in every single class — like the free agent market, you’re always competing with the other 29 organizations, and some years you’ll do better at the top end than others. But I do think they they’ve shown they can pivot effectively, put together strong classes of differing natures year after year, and identify talented players at high and low dollar figures who can go on to be successful at higher levels.

As an aside, I’ve heard a few times now that we’re getting very close to the point at which MLB is going to force organizations to operate with just one team in the DSL. As has been the case with shortening the draft to 20 rounds, this is going to have an impact on the guys like Luis de la Torre (who signed for $10,000) who just need an opportunity to show what they can do.

As for Asia, I’m not really sure I’m the person to answer that question, especially if you’re talking mostly about NPB veterans who come through the posting system. Certainly, the team has been frustrated in that market for years. But how exactly they might go about making themselves a more appealing destination for those veterans is hard to say. Simply turning themselves into a more successful franchise would certainly seem to be a step in the right direction though!

Henrique Goncalves

Given the emphasis Posey and Winn put on developing a winning culture in the minors and the fact we have a real shot at putting all our teams in the playoffs, do you see anything being done differently in that sense? Or does it seem to be just a mix of luck, the two-halves system (or Richmond would never dream of playoffs) and maybe the slower pace of promotions helping a couple teams?

As a bonus question: I haven’t been able to find the last time all our minor league teams made the playoffs. Would you know by any chance?

I don’t really know that “developing a winning culture” is something that happens overnight like flipping a light switch, Henrique. I’d say that you’re probably on the right track with your suggestion of a mixture of factors. In addition to the ones you’ve mentioned, the Giants’ generally older teams (as I mentioned a few mailbags back), along with playing in two of the smallest leagues in the minors are probably part of the answer as well. We’ll see in time if the franchise can produce more top to bottom winning, and go back to being an organization that seems to be able to count on a ring or two every year, as was the case earlier in the century.

As for your bonus question, it’s interesting to me that your question implies an underlying belief that putting every team in a farm system into the playoffs is a fairly likely occurrence. To be honest, I’m not certain if any club has ever done that! I would think across the 30 MLB organizations, that kind of outcome would be an extreme aberration. The Rays organization did get all of their domestic clubs into the playoffs in both 2021 and 2022 (though not the DSL clubs), and have come fairly close to doing so again in subsequent years — an incredible achievement, but hardly a common one.

Anyway, let me quickly disabuse you of the idea that the Giants have ever had such a season, Henrique. And, sadly, that is mostly due to the long-term failures of the two highest levels in the Giants’ organization. The Giants’ Triple-A teams have appeared in a post-season exactly one time this century (in 2019, when they made a rather fluky run to the Triple-A championship, with a roster that had a heavy presence of players who had just been promoted up from the losingest Richmond Flying Squirrels team in history).

Unwittingly, you have prompted me to give you what is probably the most depressing statistic I’ve ever had to unveil here at There R Giants: the last two years in which the Giants’ Double- and Triple-A teams both made their league playoffs were — you better sit down for this — 1997 and 1986. Yes, we have to go back 40 years to manage this! Jacob Cruz, the current Assistant Hitting Coordinator in the Giants’ system, was a young, up and coming hitting prospect when he helped lead the 1996 and 1997 Phoenix Firebirds to back-to-back PCL playoff appearances (they lost to Edmonton in the final both years), while Armando Rios, Calvin Murray, Edwards Guzman, Ramon Martinez, and Russ Ortiz were all on the 1997 Shreveport Captains, who also lost in their league championship series. If, however, you’re wondering if 1997 is the answer to your question, sadly it is not: both of the Giants’ Cal League teams that year had losing records (yes, they had two teams in one league for a while — it was weird).

That Shreveport club was a staple of the Texas League playoffs for years, appearing in the post-season in 13 of their final 17 seasons in the circuit, and taking three Texas League titles in the 1990s. Since losing that affiliate and heading to the Eastern League, their fortunes have turned decidedly south, as their various Eastern League teams have managed to produce winning records just six times in 22 years (they have appeared in three Eastern League finals in that time, winning none).

In essence, the situation is this: back in the 90s when the Double- and Triple-A clubs were having annual success, the lower levels struggled, and once we got into the 21st century, where the lower level teams started dominating their leagues (both Salem-Keizer and San Jose could legitimately be said to have dynasties in the first decade of this century), the upper levels saggedb badly.

One of the best top to bottom farms in my lifetime would probably take us back nearly 50 years to the 1977 season. That year saw the Triple-A Phoenix Firebirds win the PCL championship — the last time a Giants’ affiliate would accomplish that until 2019 — while the rest of their affiliates all had winning percentages of .529 or better. Sadly, the clubs had a frustrating tendency to finish in second place that year. The Fresno Giants actually ended the year with the Cal League’s best overall record, but finished both halves in 2nd place and missed the playoffs. The Great Falls Giants of the rookie Pioneer League had the best winning percentage in the organization, with a record of 43-27, but they finished one game behind the Lethbridge Dodgers. To add to the frustration, the Pioneer League at that time didn’t have a post-season, simply naming the team with the best regular season record champion. Naturally, they would adopt a playoff format the very next year.

To complete our history lesson, probably the greatest season in the history of the SF Giants’ farm system came at the very beginning: 1958. Of course, things were a lot different back then. The farm included 10 different affiliates, including a B-class, two C-class, and four different D-class clubs (all of which disappeared when the minor leagues were reclassified in 1963). Still, that 1958 season did see an amazing amount of success in the Giant’s organization. Triple-A Phoenix, with a roster that included Willie McCovey, Felipe Alou, Tom Haller, and a wealth of other future big leaguers, dominated the PCL and took the championship (the first of the Giants’ three Triple-A champions). The Giants also collected crowns in the Texas League (Corpus Christi Giants) and California League (Fresno Giants), while the St. Cloud Rox (Carolina League), the Artesia Giants (Sophomore League), and the Michigan City White Caps (Midwest League), led by a young Juan Marichal, all fell in their league championship series. Two other clubs, the Springfield Giants and Danville Leafs, made it to their divisional series. In all, eight of the ten clubs made their league’s playoffs. Pretty great!

We haven’t seen the like of that in decades now. However, if you’re willing to turn a blind eye to the ill-fortunes of the Double- and Triple-A squads, then the early 2000s were a pretty great time for the lower levels of the system. San Jose had an “odd-year dynasty” that immediately preceded the Giants’ “even-year” one. They won four league titles between 2005-2010, and six in a 13-year period, while also making the Cal League finals several other times. Short-season Salem-Keizer won five titles between 1998 and 2010, and Augusta, powered by Madison Bumgarner’s epic first year in pro ball, won one as well, while going to the finals two other times. Even the rookie league AZL Giants got in on the fun, going to the finals six times in that decade, and winning three AZL titles.

If I had to pick the peak of that era, I’d go with 2009, when both San Jose and Salem-Keizer won league championships, the AZL team lost in the finals, and the Connecticut Defenders won their lone division title with the Giants, going all the way to the Eastern League finals before losing in four games.

The broader answer here is, of course, that if Richmond and Sacramento were to take first place in these final weeks, the Giants’ farm will have really accomplished something special this year!

Chet Brown

3d

The Dodgers have 5 top 100 (65) prospects according to MLB dot com. The Giants have one.

1. Bryce Eldridge

2. Josuar Gonzalez

3. Gavin Kilen

4. Jhonny Level

5. Bo Davidson

Or

1. Josue De Paula

2. Zyhir Hope

3. Alex Freeland

4. Eduardo Quintero

5. Mike Sirota

Am I crazy or is the Dodgers’ group not all that impressive? Am I crazy for thinking our group is superior?

Not to pick on Chet or anything, but I get some version of this same question in just about every mailbag, and I’ve mostly stopped answering them because I’ve run out of things to say on the topic (and my answering the same questions probably isn’t fun for either of us).

But I did want to add Chet’s question here this week, because I recently had a conversation with a high-ranking Giants’ official in which they expressed much of the same feeling. In particular, the Hope Hype was a source of frustration, as Giants’ officials see Dakota Jordan as a similar prospect — and one with more pedigree coming into pro ball. I think it is a source of low-level frustration to the Giants that every prospect outlet seems to act as the Dodgers’ personal PR firm when it comes to their farm system. So, no, Chet, I don’t think you’re crazy — and I know some folks in the Giants’ org who don’t think so either, though I do suspect that if you were a devoted subscriber to There R Dodgers, and followed all of those guys daily exploits, your feelings on the second group might be a bit different. (For what it’s worth, my top five probably won’t have Kilen in it — but that’s a story for another day. A day coming sometime later this winter).

And that seems to be a good place to close up the bag for this week.