The End is Nigh Free For All Mailbag
Photo Credit: Kevin Cunningham | Giant Futures
Yep, the end is most certainly nigh. I can see it from here. Indeed, if Richmond doesn’t make the playoffs, I have just three live games left for me before the 2023 season is officially a wrap (though I have an idea of where I might find a few more in-stadium experiences to cure my cravings — more on that later).
So, while there are still some in-season questions to ask — as opposed to just post- or pre- — let’s dig into the ol’ mailsack and see what’s on the minds of There R Giants’ readers everywhere…
This is out of pocket, but with the acquisition of A.J. Pollock, by my count the Giants have had 6 players drafted in the first round of the 2009 draft in the organization (Zack Wheeler, Mike Leake, Grant Green, Pollock, Shelby Miller, & Slade Heathcott). The 2009 draft has yielded next to 0 value for the Giants, but they have gone to the well often! Can anyone think of a draft that has had more 1st round picks in the organization?
What an absolutely outstanding question! Do we have a nominations box for “Mailbag Question of the Year?” Because I’m definitely throwing my support behind this little gem. Jordan, your question is brilliant, even though you actually shorted the Giants one 2009 1st rounder! Pittsburgh’s number 4 overall pick, Tony Sanchez (BC Ball representing!), was ALSO for a brief time a member of the Giants, playing about a third of the 2016 season in Sacramento. So that makes SEVEN of the top 29 picks of the 2009 draft who have moseyed through the Giants’ organization over the years, though most of them have left an awfully light set of footprints.
In some respects, it’s not that surprising that 1st round picks should continually cycle around the game. First rounders make up the vast majority of major leaguers (though the proliferation of relief pitchers in recent years is making in-roads on that stat). Just to take one example, the NL Champion Phillies team last year featured five different 1st round picks in their everyday lineup (plus a 2nd and a 3rd), and four more in their starting rotation. As teams continue looking to stockpile depth talent at Triple A, it’s not too hard to understand how the players with first round tools keep getting circulated through organizations, looking for another opportunity.
That said, let’s dive into a little history. In the early days of the draft, it was, of course, unusual for one team to lay claim to too many 1st round picks in any given year. There was far less player movement back then, in addition to which, there were far more 1st round misses in the first few decades of the draft. Teams pushed their top picks up rapidly, and if players couldn’t prove themselves major league ready in short order, they were pushed out of the game fairly quickly.
The 1992 Giants had something of a draft coup when they brought together two of the top four picks from the 1984 draft: Billy Swift (#2) and Cory Snyder (#4). That pair failed to lead the ‘92 Giants to glory, amazingly enough. However, the next year, the Giants had much better luck when they paired up Swift with two of the top six picks from the 1985 draft (Will Clark and Barry Bonds), as well as the #3 pick from the 1986 draft (Matt Williams), in what might well have been the biggest conglomeration of high pick talent in Giants’ history — and the most successful team (in terms of record) for many decades).
The 1989 draft deserves some notice, as the Giants had the distinction of collecting, at one time or another, four consecutive picks from the top of the 1st round: #11 pick Calvin Murray (Cleveland), #12 Jeff Juden (Houston), #13 Brent Mayne (Royals), and #14 Steve Hosey (Giants). They also later acquired the #16 pick of that draft, outfielder Greg Blosser. The distinctiveness of the 1989 draft lies only in its historical curiosity, however, as the quartet did little to distinguish themselves on the field.
The Giants would also have five different members of the famed 2002 “Moneyball” draft float through their organization — and they were within minutes of agreeing to a deal with free agent Zack Greinke, who would have become the sixth.
None of this, however, actually answers your question. I believe our actual leader in the clubhouse is the 2012 draft. If you count Steven Piscotty, who spent spring training of 2023 in Giants camp (and who is literally wearing a Giants’ cap in his Baseball Ref photo), then the Giants have employed NINE different members of the Class of 2012: Kevin Gausman (#4 Orioles), Courtney Hawkins (#13 White Sox), Chris Stratton (#20 Giants), Clint Coulter (#27 Brewers), Lewis Brinson (#29 Brewers), Daniel Robertson (#34 Athletics), Piscotty (#36 Cardinals), Mitch Haniger (#38 Brewers), and Pierce Johnson (#43 Cubs). Yes, that’s THREE Milwaukee Brewers 1st round picks! You’d never know that a large part of the Giants’ pro scouting department came over from Milwaukee, would you? The kicker, of course, is that that was the draft topped by Carlos Correa, with whom the Giants had, for a brief period of time, an agreement on a 13-year deal. (I was going to throw in a mean comment about the Giants owning Michael Wacha as well, but then he beat them over the weekend. Harumphhh).
Maybe this sort of 1st round merry-go-round is becoming more common, since the Giants have also employed six members of both the 2013 and 2014 drafts as well. Obviously, the fact that 1st rounds have gotten much bigger is part of this story, but I also think that recycling other teams’ draft busts has gotten a bit more common as well.
(Ah, what the heck, let’s enjoy a bit of owning Michael Wacha while we still can…)
Hi Roger. I’m really impressed with the thoughtful, informed, and thorough responses you give in these Q&As sessions. Thank you! Vaun Brown missed almost the entire month of August. Any word on what his injury was?
It is a bummer that Luciano experienced a second consecutive injury riddled season. Do you think he will be given a chance to compete for the big club’s starting shortstop job next season? Do you think he’s ready for that challenge?
Thanks so much for your kind words, Ken. Obviously, flattery will get you a very good seat in the Q&A queue on this site! I mentioned this in my daily posts when it happened and again a few days later when the extent became clear. Brown was removed from a game on August 2nd after being hit in the left foot or ankle area with a pitch. The following week, he was taking part in baseball activities and appeared to be on his way back into the lineup. But while stretching in the outfield in Richmond, the injury appeared to be aggravated, and he was diagnosed with a broken bone in his lower left leg (the tibia, I believe), sadly ending his season in injury once again.
As for Luciano, obviously that depends on how the winter roster construction process goes. However, he’s on the 40-man. He’s used up one option. They’ve already brought him up to make his big league debut (and prior to his hamstring tear, I believe the plan was to get him back up once he felt comfortable with other positions beyond shortstop). Given all that, I don’t know why he wouldn’t be in the mix for a spot, especially given the paucity of other options for the shortstop position that seem likely to present themselves this winter. His repeated physical issues are certainly concerning, especially at his age, and I have no doubt that there will be a steep learning curve whenever he comes to the majors again. But he certainly has the big league tools to make a positive impact. My guess is that the team brings in some nature of veteran placeholder (maybe a one-year re-up with Paul DeJong), because simply handing the job to either Luciano or Casey Schmitt could be a gamble. But I think they would love to have a reason to start 2024 with both Kyle Harrison and Luciano playing important roles on the opening day roster. After all, that would give them two chances to nab that Rookie of the Year compensation pick!
Going into the season I had hoped/foolishly predicted that with a full year of good health Will Wilson would be able to show what he can do and enter the conversation for a 40 man spot. It hasn't worked out that way, and even after his demotion to Richmond he's hardly set the world on fire. What do you think happens next for him? (Also, someone needs to write a book about the last few years of Angels farm system management)
It’s a good question, Duncan, and you and I shared those hopes. I really did see improvements from Wilson at the beginning of last year that I hoped, along with a healthier season, were an indication of good things to come.
I was having a talk recently with a player development official from an MLB club, and he mentioned that most players that you see in the majors were really good hitters in the minor leagues. Guys that you think of as punchless at the big league level were mostly terrific hitters in the minors. “Alcides Escobar hit .330 in the minors,” this official said — and he was right! Escobar hit .325 as a 20-year-old in High A and followed that up with a .328 campaign in Double A at 21. He could hit! (until he saw the majors).
Suffice to say that that is not the tale of Wilson's minor league career so far. Over four seasons, he’s been a career .237 hitter with a .315 OBP, and the best he’s ever hit was a .275 line in rookie ball with the Angels that was considered at the time to be a rather disappointing debut for a high 1st round pick with his ACC pedigree.
There are a lot of things to like about Wilson’s game. He can handle all of the infield positions capably, has the arm to work on the left side, and provides a true jolt of power for a middle infielder. He works hard, prepares well, and does his best to execute a game plan at the plate. He’s done a good job of cutting down the strikeouts, staying away from those tempting outside sliders, and working counts. But as everybody in this game knows well, it’s a results-oriented industry, and the overall production just hasn’t been consistent enough thus far for Wilson to get where he wants to go. So, what happens next? He keeps plugging away at it. Works on his swing, works on his preparation, goes where the organization assigns him and tries to find some momentum to build on.
One thing hitters I talk to mention frequently is how hard it can be to keep a good swing going and how easy it is to fall into bad habits. It’s really a tough gig. But they keep working in the faith that one day things will come together and the effort will be rewarded. Hopefully, we’ll see that reward come to Wilson at some point.
(And yes, the Angels’ history is confounding in a large number of ways)
Jimmy Glowenke seems to be turning the corner in AA. Even during his hot streak the team is still batting him 8th or 9th most nights. How do you think the front office views him? Does he have much versatility or 2b only guy?
That’s been true of Glowenke pretty much his entire career. He was very consistently hitting in the bottom of the order with San Jose in 2021 and frequently in Eugene last year as well. I’m not sure there’s much to read into that, though certainly clubs like to prioritize getting their best prospects the most ABs. But I think there’s a sense that he provides good solid at bats at the bottom of lineups to help turn the order over.
Generally, I think the Giants view all of their minor leaguers as players of promise — guys who have a skill or a tool or a talent that can be fanned into a flame. I know that’s a wishy-washy answer, but it’s also something that successful PD officials believe in fervently. You can’t put your thumb on the scale — you have to give your time and resources equally to all and see who rises to the top.
Glowenke was part of the Giants’ 2020 draft, which is looking like the most significant influx of talent into the org in at least a decade. That was a weird draft due to the pandemic’s impact on scouting, but it was also Farhan Zaidi’s second year overseeing the draft and the first that Scouting Director Michael Holmes had been in place to oversee the entire draft cycle. As such, we can assume that the front office sees Glowenke as the type of player who embodies their organizational priorities — solid swing decisions, good at bats, strong preparation, etc.
As for versatility, I wouldn’t say he’s 2b only, but he’s definitely infield only — he told me earlier this year he has no interest in adding an outfield glove to his bag. Glowenke’s a really thoughtful and engaging kid (as so many in this organization are) who does a lot of things well, though he doesn’t have any knockout aspect of his game. However, he’s really turned it on lately with Richmond, as you say. After hitting .155 in 21 games in his first month at Double-A, Glowenke has gone 46-for-137 since July 1 with 7 HR, 9 2B and 28 RBIs. Interestingly, all seven of his HR have been hit on the road. If you can play in Double A you have a chance to be a big leaguer. Right now I’d have Glowenke as a 35-grade player who has a chance to break a little better than that.
I revisited your interview with Dave Fleming, and in the Giants searching for a “secret sauce” in terms of developing hitters, what are tangible targets hitters in the minors, and prospects who have seemingly graduated, try and reach over an offseason?
Without a doubt, the type of numbers the Giants look at most closely have to do with swing decisions and controlling the zone. They talk about that concept incessantly, from Farhan Zaidi on down. Whether you want to look at easily available numbers like K/BB ratios, or the numbers that teams keep behind the curtain (outside the zone swing rate and inside the zone contact rate being the most important), what the Giants really want to see from their hitters is an approach that starts with swinging at balls in the middle of the zone where they can really do damage, and not swinging at pitches outside of the zone, or pitchers’ pitches early in the count (don’t hack at a slider on the corner in a 1-0 count).
There are other things involved, of course. Once a week, the org has every player take BP with a device that registers their bat speed and Exit Velocities, and quality of contact is, of course, a vital part of the modern game. But the story of Wade Meckler’s astonishing ascension is the story of what the Giants value. Make smart swing decisions, avoid going outside of the zone, and make contact in it — that is the secret sauce they’re attempting to brew in this organization.
This seems to be a farm system rich in arms, as you have mentioned in your posts. With (hopefully) Logan Webb and Kyle Harrison as the future 1 and 2, do you see a couple of solid 3s in the system to give the Giants a good, competitive rotation? The group I see is Carson Whisenhunt, Reggie Crawford, Mason Black, Hayden Birdsong, Kai-Wei Teng, Winn, Beck, Trevor McDonald, or Landen Roupp, but let me know if I am missing anyone
I personally wouldn’t put Teng in with the rest of that group just right now, but those pitchers, along with Carson Seymour, Gerelmi Maldonado, and this year’s 2nd round pick Joe Whitman are probably the pitchers you’re going to see in the Top 30 or so of my rankings this winter (there are some currently injured guys who might be able to work their way into that group as well if they come back healthy — think Spencer Miles or Liam Simon, who is currently in the long rehab from TJ).
I do think one part of this equation is where the Giants set the bar for allowing pitchers to become a regular part of the rotation. We’ve seen them be extremely eager to move pitchers out of the rotation this year — Ross Stripling and Sean Manaea got to make two or three combined piggy-back appearances before they were both X’d out of rotation spots, while Alex Wood was transitioning out of a traditional starter’s role by early June. Tristan Beck has spent seemingly all year auditioning to be trusted with such a spot, but the team has been pretty cagey about trying him there, and it’s unclear if one clunker last time out might bounce him right back to the pen. So, until somebody really locks down a spot, the question is going to continue to be: how good does a starter need to be for the Giants to consider him a rotation staple. Currently, the line seems to be somewhere around Wood’s 2021 performance, which is a pretty high bar.
We might see that tested in the coming years, as I personally have guys like Black and Whisenhunt and Roupp rated as more of #4 or 5 types with maybe a #3-peak. That’s a really good major league pitcher, but whether it’s one that entices the Giants to go a traditional route or continue to look for matchup advantages in more creative ways remains to be seen. The organization has been very high on Whisenhunt this year, and so maybe he’s the droid you’re looking for. Scouts of other organizations have been slightly more “back-end” in conversations I’ve had, due to the lack of quality of the breaking ball and a fastball that can waver in quality. When he’s throwing it 95-96, as he was early in the year, he’s a very different guy than when he’s down more in the 91-93 range that I saw him in Richmond. I think Birdsong and Crawford are still pretty unknown qualities — they both have tons of stuff, and now we need to see them transition from thrower to pitcher as professional starters.
I guess my money continues to be on Keaton Winn as a guy who can start to pick up consistent starts going forward. A third pitch — and particularly a lateral pitch — would go a long way to completing the package, but Winn throws as hard as any starter in this organization, he throws more strikes than most starters in this organization, and he features one of the most effective pitches in the modern game in a really nasty splitter. That’s a pretty good basis for a starter in my opinion, and I suspect he’s going to show very well in my rankings this winter.
Watching Wade Meckler speed down the line last night on a perfect RBI bunt and the fact that he's started to get on base at an amazing percentage after a rough start, makes me think he's got the 'ping hitter' spot on the big club all but wrapped up. Oh, and he also plays a decent center field. Meaning, how badly does that impact the other minimal-power players in the system? Off the top of my head I can think of Ismael Munguia, Bryce Johnson (already DFA'd), Damon Dues, Hayden Cantrell, ...who am I missing, seems like there are more, even Luis Matos. Is there any chance the club would have two such players on the big club?
This is a question that has been rolling around the back of my mind much of the year — specifically related to Meckler and Matos, who are the two members of that group who look like parts of the future big league equation. The modern game does tend to revolve around the ability to hit the ball hard, and, while I applaud teams rostering a variety of skill sets on their roster and do believe that helps team resiliency over the long haul, the Cleveland Guardians have really shown us over the last couple of years that collecting a lot of below-average power players together is not a very successful strategy in today’s MLB.
It takes a lot of auxiliary skills to overcome an inability to impact the baseball, and I do think that Meckler and Matos have a lot of those auxiliary skills in their toolbox — Meckler’s plate discipline and Matos’ plate coverage are both skills that can help them develop into solid major league starters. But I do wonder if there could really come a time when the Giants relied on both of those players daily in the same outfield. Even if you assume that Matos will gain some strength and power with age, that’s two-thirds of an outfield producing below average power. Given that the outfield is a pretty good source of power traditionally, that will put pressure on other spots in the lineup. Maybe it’s all a puzzle that needs to be put together, so if Marco Luciano can give the team plus power at shortstop, then you can float a little less power somewhere else. But it does feel like there’s a razor thin margin there at some point (especially if you don’t consider Casey Schmitt a player who is likely to be much more than average power in the long run).
I don’t know how it comes together in the end, but I will say that we’ll need to see much more from all of these players — Meckler included — before determining that any position is sewn up for the foreseeable future. As friend of site Marc Delucchi has pointed out, if you break down Meckler’s success by pitch type, you come to a pretty scary dynamic:
I’m not sure which part of this is more disturbing — the .000 batting average on breaking balls or the whiff rates over 60% on all breaking balls. Believe me, every pitching staff in baseball has this info, too, and until he can prove that it’s a lie, he’s going to be seeing a steady diet of off-speed stuff. As was true of David Villar last year, it takes more than a first run through the league for a player to prove their staying power.
As the MiLB seasons draw to a close, I'm curious about the organization's plan for offseason development of the players. Are all the players given specific guidelines, goals, challenges, etc. to help them improve their game? Are they allowed to work with coaches and instructors outside the organization (e.g. former coaches and/or players, people recommended by other players, etc.)? Are they allowed to play winter baseball in the Caribbean? How much of what a player does in the offseason to improve their game is controlled by the Giants organization vs. players working on aspects of their game on their own?
Players own their careers, as they should. The agency is theirs — or at least it should be in the best development models (trust me, I’ve heard horror stories over the years where this wasn’t as much the case as one might hope in some orgs).
As you suggest, the organization does sit down with players and talk to them about specific areas and paths for improvement that can range from physical conditioning to mental approach to the game to specific pitch shapes. But the off-season is really the players’ to shape how they will. Some will use the facilities from their old colleges or get together with other pros from their home area to work out. Some will return to old coaches or facilities and some will seek out new ones looking for extra edges. There are many facilities that have sprung up in the long shadow of Driveline to offer similar services to players and those “laboratories” are quite popular with players. Push Performance is one such facility that operates in the Four Corners area that several members of the Giants’ organization use.
And, of course, players are welcome to use the gorgeous Papago Park facility in Scottsdale as well, and since that facility has opened, that’s become more and more of a popular avenue for Giants’ prospects. The Giants have chosen to bring players to Scottsdale formally in revolving small groups as an alternative to running a full instructional camp the last few years, but outside that formal structure, players are more than welcome to come use the facilities and work with Giants instructors throughout the winter, and more and more players are either making Scottsdale their winter home or coming out for extended visits in order to take advantage of that. Carter Aldrete somewhat famously spent the winter remaking his swing with Giants’ coaches prior to the 2022 season, and his success encouraged others like Tyler Fitzgerald to move out to Arizona full-time last year. When I spoke with Tyler last February, he estimated some 100 players were using Papago pretty regularly, which is a huge percentage of the farm when you think about it.
When spring training comes and re-introductions are made, the Giants coaches (right up to Gabe Kapler at the top) will start making mental observations on which players really “got after it” in the winter and that’s one way that players get their camps off to a good start — by coming in stronger, leaner, more athletic and showing the decision-makers that they really took their professional growth seriously over the winter in dedicated fashion.
But the way I view Player Development is to put the player first — and I think that is how most club officials think about it as well. It’s their career and they should have the primary agency over the shape of it. The clubs are there to offer guidance and support, but a player should always be determining where they want their career to go and how best to get there.
Now with all that said, the one place where the club really does wield a veto power is when it comes to players participating in winter leagues. There, players (or their agents) petition the organization which then weighs the pros and cons. The Giants have seen a number of major injuries for their players in winter leagues recently (e.g., Melvin Adon, Ismael Munguia, and Marco Luciano) which has made them understandably a little gun-shy in that regard.
How do you think the FO views Heliot Ramos? He's absolutely killing it in AAA but hasn't been given an extended look at the big league level. Looking at his minor league splits, it looks like he could potentially fill the role that Austin Slater's had if Slater were to leave in free agency after this season.
Let me first say that Austin Slater is just completing his 5th year of service time, and so won’t be eligible to test the free agent market for another season yet, prior to the 2025 season. Rest assured on that element of your question.
As for Ramos, the front office has not yet gone to the extreme of taking out a billboard overlooking I-80 in downtown San Francisco to express their misgivings, but they’ve done most everything short of that to signal quite clearly that they do not put much faith in the 23-year-old’s apparent improvements this year. Or, to put it differently, there are things that haven’t changed with him that weigh more in their internal evaluations than the things that have.
My guess would be that the Giants’ brass is unimpressed by Ramos’ zone control. His rate of chasing pitches outside the zone, overall swing rate, whiff rate, contact rate, you name it — all of the metrics that clubs use to define swing decisions describe Ramos as the kind of free swinging hitter whom major league pitchers will easily take advantage of, much as we’ve seen them do with Casey Schmitt this year (though it does bear noting that Schmitt has gotten much greater opportunity to prove himself this year). Consequently, the ability he’s shown in Sacramento to impact the ball with real authority is one they consider him unlikely to get to regularly in the big leagues. That’s just my guess — but it seems in keeping with most of their decision making.
Is there a chance that Ramos can still convince the FO otherwise with continued strong play — either now or next season? That is a really interesting question that I think only time is going to answer. It feels to me like his time with this organization is running out (along with some other holdover prospects who haven’t yet grabbed hold of major league jobs like Joey Bart).
Looking ahead to next year: What are your thoughts on the chances of Michael Conforto, Sean Manea, or Ross Stripling opting in or out? It looks like a weak FA market. Conforto has had a bad year, but is a Boris’ client. Manea looking better as reliever. Stripling seems like Wood in not liking his role.
Having Beck, Winn, Teng, Black, Whiz as 4th/5th starter options next year seems more appealing. Conforto was good in previous years.
This isn’t really my area of expertise but it seems to me that there are some real coin flip decisions here. Conforto’s year hasn’t been terribly impressive overall, but, as you say, the Free Agent market is so awful on the hitting side that I can see Boras positioning him as one of the only hitters with impact upside on the market. Though there have been long, infuriating spells of silence, his month of May has a lot to do with why the Giants still have an above .500 record, despite nearly three months of awful offense. The peripherals have pretty well hewed to his career norms, as has his hard hit rate (though both his barrel rate and Maximum EV are down pretty significantly this year).
It’s a bit of a gamble, but I do think he might opt out in the end — if he’s ever going to get a long-term deal (and I’m talking like 3-4 years here), it’s right now in this market. If he waits to hit the market at 32 (possibly coming off of a second straight unimpressive year) with more competition around him, he’ll basically lock himself into short term deals the rest of his career.
Manaea reminds me of the Drew Pomeranz transition to power reliever — and I’m hardly the first person to make that comparison. As a reliever over the second half of the year, he’s shown impressive stuff and posted good numbers. If his agent thinks that’s enough to secure a three-year deal out of somebody’s pen — and it could be — then there’s a chance he opts out as well.
As for Stripling, he seems almost certain to stay. His performance this year has been a really tough sell job no matter which lens you view it through, and I would think he’d at least want to prove that he was healthy before trying the market again. Bottom line: I’m not sure he could get what remains on his Giants’ deal on the market. The other two might each be able to exceed that amount. So, I’ll guess Stripling stays while at least one of the other two (and quite possibly both) opts out.
Hi Roger. I’m curious how the notable younger hitters are faring in the context of the new-ish research about bumping up their wRC+ for each year that they’re younger than the average age for their level. Would you please revisit that analysis? Also, is there similar research for pitchers? I’d love to hear some Munter musings on the arms with aggressive placements.
What I’d really like to be able to do, Scott, is actually find that study and present it for you again, with full credit to the author. So far, I haven’t had any luck searching for it online, unfortunately, so I’ll have to quickly summarize and hope that I can track it down again later. Scouts and evaluators have long understood that for hitters, reps against older pitchers is both 1) an indication of an advanced hitter, and 2) a developmental advantage in that it helps get those hitters up the learning curve quicker. I, myself, did some work over on McCovey Chronicles nearly two decades ago that showed that the ten youngest hitters in any minor league tended to have better major league outcomes than the ten most productive hitters (looking at a few different measures). In other words, simply being young for a league was a better predictor of a future major league career than being very good was — even if the young hitter in question wasn’t particularly impressive at a given level.
Anyway, the study to which Scott refers (much more mathematically sophisticated than my effort), found that, when predicting Major League Equivalencies for a minor league performance (which is something that all major league front offices do), hitters who are young for their level should essentially be given credit for an extra 25 points of wRC+ for every year that they are below the average age of their level.
This table is a few years old and this may have changed slightly since short-season ball disappeared, but average ages are approximately as follows:
It’s important to note that at the Triple A level, the math on this got fuzzier and was less reliable, so it’s best to just think about Double A and lower for this purpose. But given this setup, here is how some of the Giants hitters would be “credited” for performance based on youth (age listed is at start of season):
Diego Velasquez (A): 19.6 yo,.302/.309/.432, 125 wRC+, 175 adjusted wRC+
Onil Perez (A): 20.7 yo, .300/.364/.403, 111 wRC+, 136 adj wRC+
Aeverson Arteaga (A+): 20.1 yo, .242/.306/.422, 94 wRC+, 144 adj wRC+
Victor Bericoto (A+): 21.3 yo, .296/.353/.533, 131 wRC+, 156 adj wRC+
Victor Bericoto (AA): 21.3 yo, .240/.290/.480, 105 wRC+, 155 adj wRC+
Marco Luciano (AA): 21.6 yo, .228/.339/.450, 115 wRC+, 165 adj wRC+
Luis Matos (AA): 21.2 yo, .304/.398/.443, 136 wRC+, 186 adj wRC+
I will say that I tend to be a little bit more skeptical of wRC+ in minor league context which are heavily dependent on extremely high walk rates (as for instance, Luciano’s line in Double A was elevated by a 15% walk rate). I tend to think that it’s much easier to do this in minor league settings and takes a less robust set of skills (especially spoiling off extremely nasty pitches) and that those rates will degrade at higher levels. However, I have seen studies that suggest minor league K and BB rates are fairly sticky numbers, so I’ll keep an open mind to it.
As for pitchers, age relative to level isn’t nearly as important for them. Obviously, being a prodigy is always good, but pitchers live and die by the quality of their stuff and don’t have as much to learn from older hitters on their ascent as do hitters facing more experienced pitching.
Is there any reason Trevor McDonald is still in Eugene? Older guy who dominated last year and continues to do the same this year.
I think there are quite a few reasons, Joe! The biggest, of course, is that he just got there. McDonald has spent the majority of 2023 on the IL, and though he did get assigned to Eugene in May, he made just one, very brief, relief appearance there before going back on the IL for the next two months. After spending some time rehabbing in the ACL, he only returned to Eugene at the beginning of August. All told, even if you add in the 11 innings he threw in relief at the end of the 2022 season, he’s pitched a total of just 44.2 innings at the High A level and appeared in just ten games. That doesn’t seem like an extended stay to me.
I’d also disagree that McDonald is an “older guy.” As we can see from the previous question, at 22 he fits right in line with the average age for High A. Much more important than his age, however, is his experience level, and there, the fact is, that he just hasn’t pitched much through no great fault of his own. A 2019 high school draftee, he had a total of four professional innings under his belt when the pandemic hit and wiped out the 2020 season. He himself succumbed to a bout of COVID that severely impacted his 2021 season, which was spent mostly back in rookie ball. After finally getting in a fully healthy 2022 season, he missed about 2/3 of 2023.
All told, in the four-and-a-half years since being drafted, McDonald has barely pitched 200 innings. Now a lot of those innings, especially lately, have been so good that I sure wouldn’t mind seeing him spend the last week of the season in Richmond, but failing to get him up there at this point doesn’t seem particularly egregious to me.
Crystal ball time, Roger. Fast forward 12months who are the Giants 1-2-3 prospects, assuming both Harrison and Luciano have graduated? Also, is Kai-Wei Teng pitching his way into Rule 5 consideration?
How likely is it that the Giants protect Bericoto, Fitzgerald, Arteaga, and McCray this winter? Seems like Giants have some really tough decisions to make this winter.
Gracious! It seems like some readers can’t wait for my annual “Rule 5 Decisions” series to begin rolling! Don’t worry. I’m already planning out my off-season publishing schedule, which is probably going to begin on about September 20 (though post-season situations might affect that).
For those of you who haven’t been through an off-season with me yet (welcome!), I’ll downshift to a Monday-Wednesday-Friday publishing schedule in the offseason, with some podcasts as well. We’ll start with some season wrap ups before moving into Rule 5 choices, way too early roster previews for next year, depth charts for each position, and finally culminating with the roll out of my annual Giants Top 50. I’m not sure yet how or when I’ll weave in the Free For All Mailbags in the offseason — they won’t be weekly, but I’ll try to include at least one per month and maybe more than that.
Anyway, Joseph and Mike, rest assured that I have specific posts coming up over the next couple of months addressing each of the players that you’ve named and their cases for Rule 5 protection, as well as quite a few others (Nick Avila, Erik Miller, Ben Madison, Nick Swiney, Trevor McDonald, and Chris Wright are among the candidates I’ve considered writing up). That said, the Giants have made the list of serious candidates quite a bit shorter by putting so many players on the 40-man during the season, so I don’t think we’re going to see many more additions in the fall, and it’s entirely possible that the list ends at McCray and Arteaga. We shall see (Mike, I wrote more on Teng’s case specifically in last Thursday’s post).
As for Mike’s first question, I’ll throw out Rayner Arias, Bryce Eldridge, and Reggie Crawford in some order.
And with that, let’s close up the mailbag for another week. I’ll try to get a Stats Review posted this morning as well, and get you caught up on last night’s action. Look for that in a little while.
That Meckler graph is indeed disturbing.
The Ramos homer vid sure looks like Jose, not Heliot?