"The Prospects Are Here!" Free For All Mailbag
You Ask, I Ramble
Photo Credit: Kevin Cunningham | Giant Futures
Today feels like a good day to be a Giants’ fan, doesn’t it? Luis Matos doing things not seen since the days of George “High Pocket” Kelly (and winning NL Player of the Week honors!). Marco Luciano taking some competitive at bats in the big leagues. Heliot Ramos going seriously deep. And down on the farm, Bryce Eldridge boldly hitting balls where no ball has gone before. It’s fun, right?
As I wrote in a recent mailbag, it doesn’t take a lot of successes to start shifting a narrative. Maybe, just maybe, we’re seeing some narratives shift right now.
Let’s open the bag and see what’s on your minds this day…
Any updates on Walker Martin? When do you think he'd debut in SJ?
Timelines on Rayner Arias and Walker Martin?
Let me start by returning to a question from last week’s mailbag, because I did pick up more information on this topic on my trip to the desert last week. I was told that Martin was getting pretty close to a return. [EDITOR’S NOTE: and, in fact, he finally made his pro debut in the ACL last night, going 1 for 2!]
Arias, I was told, is a little behind Martin, maybe another week to 10 days. However, Martin got back on the early side of his timetable, so it’s possible that estimation for Arias is based on a slightly later return for Martin — which might put Arias somewhere in the first couple weeks of June, assuming all continues to go well in his rehab. (I saw him in camp and he briefly said he was doing well, though obviously frustrated by situation).
At the risk of getting over-excited, is Hunter Bishop putting himself into Rule 5 contention? Do you know who will be eligible this year other than Giants draft picks?
Oh goodness, have we entered the Rule 5 question period so soon this year?
Mike, it is certainly been a joy to see Bishop tearing the cover off the ball so far. He’s posting Exit Velocities that leave no doubt that his raw power is still intact, and the way he raced around the bases on that inside-the-park home run gave corresponding evidence that the top-of-the-line speed is still there. The fact that the athletic tools that made him a high first rounder are still there has been great to see. He’s also been taking quality at bats pretty consistently at both levels this year. I actually think that his overall numbers in Double-A were undermined a bit by poor performance at home at The Diamond — which is an environment that can punish hitters. His road numbers in the EL (.281/.349/.439 with two homers) were excellent, especially considering he missed all of the previous year. All of those things are positive, and it’s great to see Bishop getting steady reps and showing what he can do.
As for the Rule 5 question, certainly players who perform in the upper minors are the players who get protected from that draft and/or picked in that draft. So, if Bishop proves himself over the long haul this year, then certainly he will put himself in that conversation.
But let’s understand that those decisions and conversations are still a long way away. Teams mostly do their Rule 5 scouting coverage after the trade deadline, so this is a conversation that’s better had in August or September when we can see what the performance level really is. It’s also important to remember that there’s no clear-cut answers when it comes to these decisions. Scouts will recommend players as Rule 5 targets to their front offices….and not have those players selected. Scouts will recommend internal players be protected…and not have those players protected. I know of players in the Giants’ organization who have had both of the above apply to them over the last few years. There are a lot of differences of opinion in these processes, and circumstance often plays a role (I know another team was set to draft a Giants’ player in the Rule 5 until they signed a major free agent who took the final spot on their 40-man, taking themselves out of the draft). So, let’s revisit this later in the year, shall we?
As for your second question, this year, there’s going to be an interesting twist for Rule 5 decisions. I’ve mentioned this before, but when MLB teams decided in the revenue-stricken summer of 2020 to push back international signings until the winter, their decision had the unwitting repercussion of gaining an extra year of development for those young players (because, crazy as it may sound, the December date of the Rule 5 draft is itself the crucial milestone of when players are eligible for it).
So, while Aeverson Arteaga, IFA Class of 2019, was eligible for the December 2023 Rule 5 draft, Diego Velasquez, IFA Class of 2020, is NOT eligible for this December’s 2024 draft! He won’t be eligible until 2025. That makes this year’s draft possibly the first one ever in which no international players are going to be eligible for the first time. All of the players who were eligible in previous years will, of course, be eligible again (Arteaga, Victor Bericoto, Manuel Mercedes, etc. on the international side, or Bishop, Grant McCray, Ryan Murphy, etc. on the draft side).
But there are literally only 11 players in the system who will become Rule 5 eligible for the first time this winter — all of them college players drafted in 2021: Will Bednar, Matt Mikulski, Seth Lonsway, Nick Sinacola, Ian Villers, Mat Olsen, Vaun Brown, Jared Dupere, Tyler Myrick, Brett Standlee, and Hunter Dula. So this should be a somewhat easier round of decisions this year.
Appreciate he is not exactly pulling up any trees (or a prospect anymore) but are you surprised that the Giants haven't called up David Villar during this injury crisis? Does it put the writing firmly on the wall for his 40-man status?
“Pulling up trees.” I like that! Think I’m going to have to mix that one into my lexicon.
I think it’s a combination of two things, Mike. First, Villar plays two positions (1b and 3b) that have been relatively unscathed by the bodies falling everywhere. Outfielders, catchers, and shortstop have been the real need, and Villar can’t help in any of those spots.
But the second issue is that, yes, Villar probably is trending towards the extreme end of the 40-man at this point. His chance at grabbing extended big league playing time last year went very poorly, and he’s not doing a lot at Triple-A this year to demand another opportunity. In particular, his Exit Velocities have been shockingly low for a guy who needs to earn his living by impacting the baseball. He’s also 6 for his last 52 at this point, which isn’t great!
And then, beyond that, he’s fallen to a pretty low position on the depth chart. At 3b, he’s obviously behind Matt Chapman, Wilmer Flores, Casey Schmitt, and maybe even Tyler Fitzgerald and Marco Luciano (though Tyler seems to have made his way into the doghouse lately with a few critical mistakes). And, at 1b, he’s behind at least Flores and LaMonte Wade, Jr. Those are the kind of roster redundancies that can come into play when difficult 40-man decisions are being made.
We’ll see how things play out this year. Baseball has a way of pulling bizarre plot twists out of nowhere.
What's your take on Drew Cavanaugh? Saw a highlight clip on Twitter of him throwing out someone with a pop time 1.77 and he seems to be on a hot start with the bat in AAA. With the Giant's catching depth put in question in what it seemed like a blink of an eye, could Drew be a name we see called up at some point this year or next?
I was very impressed by what I saw of Cavanaugh in spring training. I remember talking with a scout from another NL club at one game where we had an extended talk about Cavanaugh’s virtues. He can really throw! And though I find judging catcher receiving, framing, etc. an exercise in obscurantism, at least one person I know who does that for a living is of the opinion that he can really catch, too. So that’s all a pretty good place to start from.
All that said, I wouldn’t get too caught up in Cavanaugh going 7 for 18 (with a .500 BABIP) in a short stint in Sacramento — anymore than I would, with Brett Auerbach (.381 in seven games), for instance, or Brett Martorano (3 homers in his first four Triple-A games). I think we have to remember that one reason why Cavanaugh was the choice to go up to Sacramento was that he has impressed coaches with his ability to handle quality pitching. But another reason was that he was the backup catcher in San Jose, and so his absence would be less disruptive to that staff (we’ve seen many such temporary promotions in the past, with say, Ronaldo Flores or Robert Emery getting shuttled up quickly to a Sacramento squad in need) And I would assume that when, eventually, he returns to San Jose, he’ll likely still be backup to Luke Shliger — though maybe with a little greater share of the rotation.
So, no, I would think it would take a sequence of events we probably don’t want to even try to imagine to get Drew to the majors in the coming months. But I do think there are some interesting tools there to build on, and ways for him to make himself valuable to this organization over time. There are a lot of defense-first catchers who work their way up over time, level by level, before catching on as major leaguers (akin to beloved former Giant Chris Stewart, or, even more gradual, Eli Whiteside). I would think that more gradual development arc is more likely to be Cavanaugh’s path forward.
He’s having a very good start to his pro career, and opportunity to get to work with the Triple-A coaching staff, pitching staff, and even umpires, can be an invaluable one for a young player like him, who has some real tools that can help carry him in his pro career. (By the way, Auerbach also has a tremendous throwing arm — I’m always impressed by his throws to 2b when he’s catching).
What’s going on with Mason Black’s velocity? Is it almost more encouraging that he’s able to compete and get outs in the bigs with velocity a little lower than he’s had in the past?
Hi Jason, I think this is a case (one of a few I’ll combat in this week’s mailbag) of false expectations. Black’s velo has been down a tiny bit — this is something I’ve noted after his starts in various Minor Lines posts this year. He’s averaged just a hair under 92 mph with his fastballs, both in the major leagues (91.5) and in Triple-A (91.7), and maxed out at 94.3. As I say, this is a little low on the “average,” but all in all, it’s right in line with my description of his fastball in his Top 50 profile this winter:
That helps give his average fastball velo (which mostly sits in the 92-95 range) …
That’s been pretty consistently where he’s sat any time I’ve seen him since turning pro, and I’ve also noted at times this spring that last year, he opened the season sitting mostly 91-93 before climbing up more into the 92-95 range around June. But, by and large, 6s are always a rarity for Black and I don’t believe I’ve ever seen him hit a 7. I’ve definitely seen multiple starts of his where 94 was his top velo.
So, my basic reply to this question is that Black’s velocity is right where it has traditionally been — and where I think I’ve always described it. He has below average velocity on his fastball by the current major league standards. He can get the pitch to play up from that standard by manipulating the four-seam/two-seam divide, and forcing hitters to determine whether the fastball is going to go up or down (both of his fastballs tend to sit in the same velocity range). That’s an effective pitching strategy, especially for Black, who can get explosive action up in the zone with his best four seams.
All of that said, I do think that Black’s fastball is what has limited his ceiling in the opinion of most scouts that I’ve spoken too, many of whom see him as a fringy starter and perhaps more of a bulk innings reliever (which is why I had him as a 45-grade prospect in the Top 50 this year). His sweeper/slider combo is really the money-maker for him, but ultimately, he’ll succeed by mixing speeds and shapes, sequencing well, utilizing the two different fastballs to disrupt hitters’ expectations, and competing his butt off. He’s not going to simply blow people away with a great fastball.
Wow, it’s great to see your excitement about Landen Roupp. That time machine comment on Friday jumped off the screen—save that for potential bragging rights, Roger! Do you think the Giants are building Roupp up to be a potential MLB starter (or bulk-innings piggy-backer) later this season if the need arises? Any idea why they didn’t do that in spring training? We heard rave reviews of him from MLB vets, baseball personnel and media from the outset in Scottsdale—more than of any other prospect. And clearly the team needed options for starters (especially before the late Blake Snell signing). Mason Black was built up for extended outings, but Roupp wasn’t despite his starter pedigree. Did the Giants then think Roupp could help them the most as a shorter-inning reliever—and if so, has that perspective changed and why?
So much of these kinds of decisions comes down to circumstances, not plans. You know the old saying: no battle plan ever survives first contact with the enemy? Baseball seasons are much the same. The fact is that there really was no opportunity to build Roupp up in the spring, because a minor muscle strain at the very start of camp set him back. And while he was working to get back from that small setback, other competitors were getting stretched out in games. You might recall Roupp’s very first spring appearance (which turned a lot of heads). But do you also recall that that game came just a few days after his first full bullpen session.
So while Black and Daulton Jefferies and Spencer Howard were getting rotation turns, and gradually stretching out to 3-4-5 innings, Roupp had barely gotten himself into shape for throwing an inning or two. And, since those innings were somewhat eye-popping in nature, and the team did have several open spots in the bullpen, it just made sense to utilize him in that role for a little while.
Once the pen was bolstered by the returns of Luke Jackson and Sean Hjelle (both of whom were on the IL almost from the start of the season), and true short-inning guys like Erik Miller (and later Randy Rodriguez) began to establish their presence a little more consistently, then it made sense to send Roupp back to Triple-A and let him start stretching out again.
Facts on the ground are always lurking behind decisions we might otherwise find curious.
Hi Roger, do you have any thoughts on the outlook for Randy Rodriguez? His outing against the Dodgers really opened my eyes
I have had many thoughts about Randy Rodriguez over the years! Most of them clustered around the notion that I’m a huge fan of his. Randy is, and always has been in my eyes, a kind of “poor man’s Camilo Doval.” I don’t mean that in any sort of diminishing way — not, like Poverty Guy Camilo, just….slightly less rich cousin, in that Randy doesn’t quite reach the 102 (or 104) mph benchmarks. But otherwise, there are a lot of similarities in these two arms.
Both were classic “slightly older international pitcher” signings by the Giants, who have mined that particular profile very hard over the years. Let a kid turn 17 or 18, put a little muscle on, and then sign them to a five-figure deal rather than throwing hundreds of thousands or more at a skinny 15-year-old whose body could go a lot of different ways — that’s a value proposition that the Giants have followed consistently over the years.
Beyond that, both Doval and Rodriguez employ slinging, side-arm motions that do two things: 1) create explosive running action on their pitches, and 2) make those pitches very hard to command. They both bring serious high heat, but employ the knee-buckling slider as their biggest weapon. And for both of them, it was obvious that they were going to be major league arms once they learned to put their high-octane stuff in the strike zone enough to be competitive against the highest level of hitters.
The difference in Randy so far this year has been remarkable to me. And not just in terms of his strike throwing. His whole bearing on the mound has improved, and his tempo has dramatically improved for the better. That’s important, because when Rodriguez has struggled at times (or not felt at his best physically), he’s often slowed down to a dirge-like tempo. But when he’s feeling confident — and usually when he’s attacking the strike zone at his best — he’s an up-tempo guy.
When I first saw Rodriguez in San Jose back in 2021, he was really the arm that jumped out at me. I was already sky high on Kyle Harrison, and of course Prelander Berroa and Carson Ragsdale and Ryan Murphy were all making a name for themselves that year. But I saw Rodriguez pitch and instantly started asking folks around me: tell me about this guy! (And, according to Joe Ritzo, that was a fairly common reaction of observers that year).
I’ve always believed that getting added to the 40-man immediately before the MLB lockout was a real roadblock to Rodriguez’ development. He was unable to contact any of the major league staff in that first winter on the 40-man, and by the time camps opened up after the new CBA was agreed upon, the focus had to be on a quick ramp up to the regular season, shunting someone like Rodriguez aside in the rush to put a big league squad together. After that came a perhaps ill-advised attempt to convert him to a starter, and even a health scare or two along the way. All of that has delayed his progress to the point we’re seeing today, but it hasn’t stopped it all together. I think Rodriguez, like Ryan Walker and Erik Miller, and of course Doval, is going to be a staple of the Giants’ pen for the foreseeable future. And I am so here for it!
How close are we to seeing some mid-season promotions among the group of college players from the 2023 class? Jonah Cox, Quinn McDaniel, and Cole Foster seem to be performing well.
Additional question on a related topic... Was Cole Foster injured on Saturday? He got pulled and didn't play Sunday.
I’m not sure we’re all that close, to be honest. I think Cox might be starting to force the issue, but I can see a significant part of the season going by without a ton of promotions this year.
For one thing, as Giants officials will always try to impress on me when I make such inquiries, they base readiness for promotions on a lot of things that can’t be seen by outside observers. Dennis Pelfrey always says that he judges a player by the work they’re putting in during the morning and afternoon — and the games at night are their chance to have fun. How guys “go about their business,” be it in the weight room, the batting cage, Ins and Outs, or their prep work and focus at meetings — all of those things are important factors in the club’s decision to move a player up, much more so than a 120 wRC+ of whatever statistical benchmark you want to choose. Performance fluctuates up and down, but commitment and work ethic and resolve don’t, so those are the factors the club really likes to look at (as well as those various “under the hood” stats that the public doesn’t normally see — though I hope to be getting some of that sort of thing in the near future).
Then the second major factor is that the Farm Director has to look at player moves holistically. It’s not just about, this one guy is performing well, let’s move him up. They have to consider both whose playing time that promotion is going to cut into AND how they replace the player on the roster he’s leaving. That’s an especially acute issue for the players in San Jose, because there is absolutely nobody ready to step in for them. The ACL roster is exceedingly thin right now both figuratively and literally.
So moving Foster up would create a giant hole in the left side of San Jose’s infield (at least while Maui Ahuna is still out), and simultaneously could have an impact on McDaniel’s playing time, while moving McDaniel up would impact Jimmy Glowenke or Luis Toribio. All of that has to be considered when any one move is contemplated. What are the playing time opportunities? Whose opportunities are being sacrificed? How do we replace this guy? All complicated and intertwining parts of the decision tree.
My guess is that the bulk of the promotions are going to come later in the summer — around the July conclusion of rookie league. At that point, we’ll probably see a wave of releases to make room in the domestic reserve list for the incoming draft class, and the newly signed players will be pushed up to San Jose (along with the best of the ACL players), with a chain of events moving logically upwards from there. Between now and then, there may be a move or two — more if injuries and exigencies demand — but I don’t think we’ll see a big wave of promotions for a while.
As for Yeti’s question, it’s hard to say. The game was in Modesto, and the home town broadcaster barely noticed Foster’s substitution, much less offering information about it. Foster certainly hadn’t been involved in anything overt that might have led to an injury, but it’s certainly possible that he tweaked something or simply felt under the weather. [EDITOR’S NOTE: YES! Foster was placed on IL today.]
I see Hayden Birdsong threw 86 pitches the other day. Is that a one off? Or are the Giants loosening their minor league pitch limits a bit? Pretty sure no minor leaguer threw over 80 pitches in any game last year.
Bob, I hate to say this, but that is a slight exaggeration on your part!
Just spot checking a few of the most likely cases, I find that Black had eight such starts last year. Carson Seymour had two. Kyle Harrison had three, as did John Michael Bertrand. Manuel Mercedes had a couple. Even teenager Gerelmi Maldonado managed one (before blowing out his elbow). And, of course, Kai-Wei Teng piled up 11, including what I’m pretty sure was the high water mark, a 91-pitch outing late in August. (There’s no pitch data in the ACL, by the way, or I believe I’d be able to add a couple of rookie league pitchers from last year to that list as well).
And, in fact, there have been several already this year, including two for Birdsong, as well as 80-pitch performances for Bertrand, Ryan Murphy, and, just the other day, Jack Choate.
However, I do think that you are right to pick up on this outing and this number as potentially significant. As I said above, I believe that Teng was the only pitcher who hit 90 last year, so 86 is right at the top of what the Giants seem to feel is appropriate. And, as far as I can tell, all of the 80-pitch performances I listed above came at least after June 1, and mostly in the second half of the season. Teng, who can really soak up innings, didn’t hit the 80-mark until July, and Black first reached it on June 25. Prior to that, the team had kept nearly all starting pitchers strictly in the 60-75 range for most of the first half.
So it does feel like there’s a little bit of a sea change going on very subtly. They are stretching guys out a little further and a little earlier this year. The 80-pitch mark is pretty standard for a lot of organizations, I should say. Most orgs don’t like to see guys go much beyond that, and, of course, 100-pitch outings are unheard of at this point in the minor leagues. So it doesn’t feel like the Giants are that far out of the norm on this issue.
Luis Matos reached the majors with the reputation of a strong defensive center fielder. One fantastic catch aside, his reads/routes/jump have looked genuinely awful and he’s not fast enough to make up for it. So….where did this reputation come from? Did he get worse? Why did so many people seem so wrong?
[Questioner’s EDIT: He’s made me look like a bit of [a jerk] since I posted this but I think his greater body of work has still been discouraging.]
Honestly Graham, I don’t think Matos has made you look all that bad since posting. Yes, he’s made a couple of highlight reel plays, but we need to pay attention to the fact that the Giants have him stationed very deep in center field at this point — he’s practically starting on the warning track — which makes home run robberies a little easier! The fact is that Matos does not have the foot speed associated with the position. He didn’t even as a teenager, and now that he has added weight and strength, he’s very clearly operating below norms for the position — though the Giants certainly hope that with positioning help, he can at least be capable there for the rest of the year until Jung Hoo Lee returns, because there’s really not another good option (Mike Yastrzemski is the obvious alternative).
But with that said, let me turn to your original question, which to my mind, is about the way that expectations for prospects run out of all proportion because of the internet’s own unique brand of “telephone.”
“Reputations” can be, and it seems most often are, built as much upon uninformed viewpoints as they are on expert ones. I won’t necessarily put myself forth as any kind of expert, but certainly readers of There R Giants should have been expecting a player with fringy speed who I thought could be capable at the position with improved reads and routes. Indeed, I’m pretty sure that somewhere back in 2021, I have a quote from Kyle Haines saying almost exactly that — and emphasizing that he still had work to do on that score. There’s a reason why, whenever Matos and Grant McCray have shared an outfield (as they did in both San Jose and Eugene), Matos spent all of his time in a corner.
And, if you don’t want to rely just on my views on this topic, here’s a blurb from Baseball America’s Prospect Handbook heading into the 2022 season:
For now, Matos will stay in center field, and there’s a small chance he can stick there in the long run if he improves his routes and jumps on balls hit his way. He’s more likely to move to a corner, however, where he could be an above-average defender
In the circles where I’ve run the past few years, that was always the view of Matos as a fielder. He isn’t gifted with the footspeed of natural center fielders. So why did he come to the majors with a reputation far exceeding that sober opinion? I think that part of it has to do with the way prospect terminology can get lazy and short-sighted. Virtually any teenager who can hit — especially if they’re Latin players — starts getting tagged with the “toolsy” moniker, and it seems like nothing you can say or write can separate a player from that label. Teenagers who can hit AND play CF are just assumed to have speed as a predominant tool in a lot corners of baseball twitter, and similar places.
But Matos was never a particularly toolsy player. I remember asking Giants Senior International Scouting Director, Joe Salermo, about scouting Matos and Luciano, and he made that point very clear:
I have to tell you, these guys are apples and oranges, because Luciano, you could see the tools the first time you saw him: the projectile body, the fluidity to his game, the way the ball jumped off his bat…. Matos, on the other hand — and it’s a great example of “you gotta watch the game” — the tools didn’t jump out. You could go see Matos in a workout and say, huh, he has bat speed, but he’s 5’11”. He’s not the most tapered guy, or athletic guy, not the quickest guy. But the way that he handled himself in between the lines was an 80. He had instincts for the game.
I can write this and say it over and over again, but I’m talking into the storm of a media environment that also includes radio hosts whose entire knowledge of Matos is that he’s the hot new name in the first week of spring camp, or podcasters or social media folks who are most interested in hyping stuff up. I hate to say that about anonymous others, but that’s the truth of it. The one thing anybody could really hang their hat on when calling Matos a plus defender is the fact that he was named the Best Defensive Outfielder in the Arizona Fall League, which is true! But I think that’s also — what should I say — not the most rigorously vetted award process in the world.
Beyond that honor, I would say that people who paid the most attention to Matos’ scouting reports as he was coming up knew that he was not a plus defender. Now, I have admitted being surprised that he has been as bad as he’s been in the majors, with circle routes and late reads aplenty (I have always thought that Alex Cobb would have had a no hitter with a better defender in center, for one thing). I think some of that is due to the shock of playing with 3rd, 4th, and 5th decks for the first time (which makes tracking fly balls harder). Some is due to the low confidence of a 21-year-old in the majors, suddenly tentative and unsure. And some of it is that I over-rated his reads in the minors. But there’s a difference between being disappointed that a player isn’t quite adequate at a position, and being surprised that he’s not superlative. The former is a valid response to Matos’ early major league time in CF I think, but the latter has been created irresponsibly by hype-meisters.
All of which, I suppose, is a very back handed way of saying “SUBSCRIBE TO MY DANGED BLARG” because I’ve seen these guys a lot and know a little something about them, if I do have to say so myself. (Apologies for the self-aggrandizing rant).
Your comment last week about A.J. Preller hit on something I’ve bemoaned for years. How is it that the Giants lag far behind the Padres (the Padres!!) in acquiring and replenishing top young talent? And wouldn’t SF benefit from adopting more of Preller’s MO? San Diego puts an extraordinary emphasis on acquiring teenage talent. They’ve drafted a HS player with at least their first two picks every year since 2017 (including when their first-rounders were in the mid-teens and mid/late twenties), and sometimes signed their top pick for far under slot value. And they signed the top international prospect the last two years. Then, as you noted, Preller often trades his prospects for proven MLB talent while their value is high. No question, San Diego has acquired many more young players that other teams are excited about than the Giants over the last several years. So, should the Giants draft more prep players in the early rounds (more of the Eldridge and Martin-style picks)? How about going really big on an IFA guy at least every 2-3 years—it’s not like Farhan’s mid-tier $2-3M strategy has yielded any fruit to date. And why not roll the dice by trading a top-100 prospect when they have high value—the stock of Bart, Ramos, Luciano and Matos dipped and, as of now, we have almost no MLB benefit from them. It sure seems like the Preller playbook would give the Giants a much better shot at either developing or trading for the elusive impact bat. Big sigh.
You know Scott, I honestly have to return your question with this one: have the Padres benefitted from Preller’s MO? They were a game away from going to the World Series a couple of years ago, so in that sense, I suppose the answer is yes (and personally, I wish for Peter Seidler’s sake that they had made it that year).
There are two things that I think have long been said about A.J. Preller that are fundamental to his time as a GM: 1) he is an absolutely brilliant talent scout; and 2) he has some real blind spots when it comes to roster construction. Put the two together, and a lot of Preller’s activity with the Padres has been a hamster circling its proverbial wheel. Juan Soto is an incandescent talent, and I wouldn’t feel bad about trading C.J. Abrams (whom I have always adored), MacKenzie Gore, and James Wood for two and a half years of his time. But now the Soto years turned out to be generally pretty disappointing, and Preller has effectively turned Abrams, Gore, and Wood into Randy Vasquez and Michael King, which is a whole lot less appealing.
So, I think there’s a level of “grass is always greener” when it comes to envying Preller’s work. I sometimes wonder if he’s not more popular among other fanbases than he is amongst his own (though it would certainly be fun rooting for some of those stars he’s gotten his hands on). I also think that acquiring talent with the specific intent of hyping and flipping them is a somewhat cynical and self-defeating process, so I don’t know that I think the Giants should be in that game.
I am, however, as my long-time readers know, a fan just like you who absolutely adores young high school hitters in the draft. And even though the Giants have an absolutely abysmal record of developing those types of players, every year I get my heart set on one (I was aching for Abrams to slip past the Padres and into the Giants’ grasp five years ago). And I’d love to see more Eldridge type picks (especially if they start looking the way he has so far in his short prospect journey).
But I also know that there are many paths to the waterfall, and I’m not going to spend too much of my time longing for an A.J. Preller-led club, lest I be punished by getting what I wished for.
What were your impressions of Eliam Sandoval? And how would you judge the defensive abilities of Dario Reynoso and Ramon Peralta on the infield?
Hi Roger. I've not noticed Ryan Reckley's name in recent games. Have I missed another bite of the injury bug?
Lyle, let me just start this answer by repeating something I said a little earlier: the current ACL roster is thin both metaphorically and literally. Not surprising, given that most of the players on the current team are repeating the level, but it’s not a very talent laden group at the moment (obviously there’s some talent that’s not on the field right now).
I’ve seen a good bit of Sandoval the last couple of years, both in the ACL and spring training, and I guess I would say that he really hasn’t made many impressions in that time. Not a lot has really stood out about him at the plate in my looks.
I did like Reynoso’s work on defense. He seems to have good hands and feet, and a decently strong arm, if not exactly a cannon. He also has a really good motor. Peralta I would characterize as more of an offensive-minded infielder. Like Reynoso (and Jose Ramos), I saw him play all three infield positions, and he has the arm for them all, but he frequently seemed to let ground balls play him, and didn’t seem to have a great feel for getting his body in the best position to take them. I will say that, given the physical tools for a position, defensive improvement is almost entirely about reps and work, so I certainly don’t want to sound definitive on either of these players. But right now, I would say that Reynoso is ahead of Peralta as a defender (the opposite is likely true as a hitter).
Mike, I can see why you’d think that. Reckley hasn’t played since the second game of the ACL season, so it’s natural to imagine he’s fighting an injury. But I noticed that he was dressed and on the bench for every game I saw this week — normally the injured players don’t put on game unis. They sit over in the stands in t-shirts and shorts for the game. I asked and was told that Reckley is healthy, but nothing more than that. That makes it sound like a “DNP-Coach’s Decision” sort of situation. Whether they’re working with him on some elements of his game, or something else is going on, I’m not sure.
Are Kai-Wei Teng's days as a starting pitching prospect over?
Daulton Jefferies came back to start two major league games this year in the wake of having Tommy John surgery AND thoracic outlet surgery virtually on top of each other. Jakob Junis has crafted an eight-year big-league career almost entirely as a starter, despite tepid reports throughout his minor league career that amounted to a shrug and a “well, I guess he could be a 5th starter for a while on a lousy squad.”
So, I’m not going to say anybody’s prospects of anything are “over” at any point. Baseball rewards the twisty path, as a general rule, and it has a morbid sense of humor. That said, I put a 40 on Teng in my offseason grades — and I don’t think that my view was out of line with most other parties — and 40 FV isn’t a starter grade. It’s not even the kinda-sorta close 45 FV that I put on several other maybe-starters in front of him. I think he can work his way into a very Giants-era Junis type of bulk innings role, but I’m skeptical that he ever has the command you want to see in a starting pitcher at the top level.
A bit of silliness for the week… I have noticed a lot of arm tattoos on pitchers, but it always seems to be limited to the non-throwing arm. Is that a thing? Don’t mess with the tool in any way?
Joseph, I thought about this question quite a bit, trying to decide if I thought it was true or not. My first inclination was that I’ve definitely seen pitchers with tattoos and even full arm sleeves on their pitching arms, but then I couldn’t pinpoint one specific pitcher in my mind’s eye that that was true of. So, I brought in a ringer for this one. I reached out to Trey Wilson, who spends many, many more hours with these guys (especially on road trips) to see what he thought. Here’s what Trey had to say:
I’ve seen a few guys who just do the opposite side arm, and I’ve seen some with throwing arm tats. Some guys probably feel that way [don’t mess with the instrument], but I would guess for most it’s just stylistic. Plus, lots of kids who get tattoos used to draw on their arms, so it makes sense that they would be tattooed on the opposite arm of their writing hand.
That does make sense! Thanks Trey!
That does it for this week! I’ll attach last night’s ACL wrap to the Stats Review and then it’s out to Bowie for tonight’s game. See you at the ball-yard everybody! Now once more, with feeling…
I had to laugh at your answer to the question about Matos. When I read the mailbag questions, it is very apparent who subscribes (and reads) your blog and who doesn’t. I am a satisfied subscriber and I encourage anyone who cares about the Giants farm and is not yet a subscriber to become one. It’s well worth it!