We’re into the There R Giants Top 50. Over the winter months, I’ll write a post on each of the fifty players in my rankings, leading us back to the much-needed spring. Our list of previously covered players is getting a little long, so from here on out I’m moving the links for the full list down the bottom of the post.
Let me start today with a slight off-topic diversion. Kevin Goldstein, the one time Astros scouting honcho and current Fangraphs’ prospect writer, wrote a terrific piece this week about the way that prospect writers tend to pump up fan expectations beyond reasonable levels. It’s great and I highly recommend that you take a moment to read it in full.
The takeaway, though, is that history and simple math tell us in no uncertain terms that the attrition rate for even the very best prospects is extraordinary — sticking and producing in the big leagues is one of the hardest goals any human can set for themselves and the harsh reality is: most players will not succeed at that goal.
Nobody is more guilty of this than me. Here I am, getting you guys all excited about players like Diego Rincones and David Villar — players who can hardly make the bottom of many publications’ lists, much less the top. The odds are very much stacked against these guys’ chances of having any big league impact at all.
I didn’t used to be quite so hopeful about players’ chances. In previous times, I was often dismissive of players — “he’s an org guy,” “he’ll top at a Double A.” But over the years, I’ve seen players prove such dismissals wrong often enough to learn an essential scouts’ mantra — prospect watching is about keeping your mind open to possibilities. I want all of these guys to succeed, even if it’s just for a day or a week, I want them to catch their dream by the tail. So I imagine what is possible while also keeping in mind what is likely. And I try to remind you all: the game is incredibly hard! Any success is to be celebrated and even “failures” should be appreciated for the effort. I know that it’s easy to get excited about glorious futures, but we should do so with a full understanding of just how unlikely those futures are. We root for dubious outcomes (and that’s without even getting to the payment structure which…. well just go back and listen to yesterday’s podcast to hear my thoughts on that topic).
Today is a good day to remind ourselves of the harsh truths, because I think Aeverson Arteaga is a great candidate for letting our daydreams run away with themselves. Arteaga is definitely an exciting young prospect, and a legitimate Top 10 player in a good system. He’s the finest defensive shortstop in the system and one of the very best defensive players at any position. But he’s still extremely raw and it’s far from clear where his offensive talents will land — striking out 30% of the time in rookie ball is never exactly a good sign, after all! If Arteaga ended up having a career that looked a bit like former Giant Ehire Adrianza it would be a good outcome — a great outcome, even! It could easily fall short of that standard. But maybe….
Well, I’ll go ahead and start getting you excited about him now, but just remember…. you’ve been warned! Best outcomes are beloved precisely because they are so unusual.
Now let’s start revving up the ol’ wishcasting engine and see what’s so exciting about this 19 year old defensive whiz.
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