Previously, on Way Too Early Roster Previews:
Onwards and upwards we go, taking the surprisingly large step up from Low-A to High-A ball, and bearing with the cold and rainy spring and the stadium complications that come with the Eugene Emeralds.
I noted last week that San Jose has settled into a habit of unveiling a sneak preview of the coming season’s roster in the final weeks of the year. Unsurprisingly, concurrently with that, most of the load of talent that had been the San Jose roster is pushed upwards as a part of that process. The tricky part comes in figuring out which of those promotees are ready to move onwards after their partial season with Eugene, and which need to return for a second go.
Late in 2022, for instance, we saw Grant McCray and Hayden Cantrelle both move up from San Jose to Eugene. McCray was brought back to spend all of 2023 at Eugene, while Cantrelle, who had played just nine games at that stop, was moved up to Richmond for the 2023 season. And while the two years difference in age was certainly a contributor to that decision, Damon Dues, who is even older than Cantrelle, likewise stayed behind — so age isn’t the only driver of these assignments. Similarly, we saw Mason Black (who had been an earlier promotee) move up to Richmond to start 2023, while relievers Tyler Myrick and Hunter Dula, who had followed the path up I5 later in the summer, were brought back to Eugene to start the next season. And, of course, some players who spent an entire year in Eugene (Luis Toribio, for instance), returned to do the same again.
So this is where the line between “ready for the next challenge,” and “maybe a little more time here” begins to get a little blurrier. Not surprisingly, my success ratio at predicting the roster begins its inevitable downwards path as we move up to Eugene. That said, it turns out that my 2023 preview was just about as successful as my San Jose preview had been. In 2023, I correctly predicted 20 of the 30 members of Eugene’s Opening Day roster — not too shabby! That included seven of my nine predictions for the team’s starting lineup.
Once again, the IL bit my anticipated roster in the pitching staff, with Trevor McDonald, Will Bednar, and Ian Villers all failing to make the opening bell (though McDonald would ring it loudly enough before closing). In this case, however, the IL both giveth and taketh, as one pitcher whom I had guessed might open injured, Carson Ragsdale, was instead a mainstay of the season-opening rotation (though, sadly, he didn’t maintain that status). I did get a wee bit over-liberal with my expected promotions (Alex Suarez and Manuel Mercedes both stayed behind), and I underrated the amazing Wade Meckler (sticking him back in San Jose), but where I really lost players was in the minor league phase of the Rule 5 draft, which lifted Ronaldo Flores, Willian Suarez, and Yoniel Ramirez from my roster preview. But I think that does point towards a new reality in the 165 maximum player era: guys who aren’t showing some pretty steady upwards momentum will move closer to the dreaded “expendables” list more rapidly than in earlier years. So the harder it is to fit onto one of these rosters, the more trouble a player might be in.
Anyway, there’s no need to linger over last year’s mistakes when I can make all new mistakes for the new year! So, let’s see if we can puzzle a roster together that will excite the Eugene locals come April.
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