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This is a Free For All There R Giants’ post. There won’t be many of these this winter, so if you enjoy what you see, by all means consider becoming a There R Giants’ subscriber to get all of my Giants’ prospect-related content delivered straight to your Inbox!
We’ve spent a lot of time talking about which Giants’ prospects might be protected from, or potentially taken in, this year’s Rule 5 draft (probably not a worry! But it nags ever so slightly). But the flip side of the coin exists as well — the Rule 5 draft could potentially offer a pool of talent for the Giants to add to their org.
Now, on the one hand, Farhan Zaidi has publicly stated that his goal for the winter is to line up on the foul lines come opening day with a roster that can be confidently predicted to make the playoffs. And generally speaking, teams aiming at title runs aren’t carrying too much talent that their former organizations didn’t deem worthy of a 40-man spot.
On the other hand, there’s no hard and firm rule on this! Rule 5 pick Garrett Whitlock helped pitch the Red Sox into playoffs in 2021. Talent can come from anywhere! And possibly more importantly, the Giants have, somewhat incredibly, had three — um, TWO (more on this later) — whole roster spots burning a hole in their pocket for nearly two weeks. If they can’t fill them with three — um, TWO — elite level free agents by the end of the winter meetings, the temptation to grab some fresh bodies on the way out of the hotel gift shop might be too powerful to overcome!
[Side note: one thing to keep in mind here is that you cannot create a roster space during the Rule 5 draft. Teams can’t draft a player and then DFA someone else. If the roster is full at 40 when the draft begins, they are ineligible to select a player.]
So, just in case….let’s see if we can find them some!
Helpfully, Geoff Pontes of Baseball America did a study last year looking at what players did the season before they were taken in the Rule 5 draft, to see if their stat lines tell us anything useful. Focusing on players selected in the the 21st century, he found that successful Rule 5 hitters (players who stuck with the team that selected them and ultimately produced a positive career WAR for that team) posted an average of .291/.368/.450 in the season before they were drafted. Further, with just three outlier exceptions (Akil Baddoo, Josh Hamilton, and Victor Reyes), all of them hit at least two of three benchmarks:
.260 or higher batting average
.340 or higher OBP
.400 or higher SLG
Pitchers were a little harder to bottom line, but their average stat line in the year prior was: 86.1 IP, 3.32 FIP, 23.7 K%, 8.8 BB%. In addition, only one successful Rule 5 pitcher this century came from a level below Double A.
Let’s keep those numbers in our minds as a backdrop as we consider a few potential draft targets for the Giants.
HITTERS
Jake Mangum, CF, Mets
The prime directive for the Giants this season is to fix an outfield defense that almost single-handedly sunk the hopes of the organization (and its many fans) in 2022. As Farhan Zaidi has noted, the team needs to get healthier and more athletic up the middle, and the free agent market isn’t a great place to achieve such goals. So what about the Rule 5 draft?
Allow me to introduce to you one fantastic defensive outfielder — generally considered the best in the Mets’ organization. Mangum is child and grandchild of NFL players (he father, John, was a defensive back for the Bears, and grandfather, also John, spent a couple of years as a defensive lineman for the Patriots). He’s a plus runner, has a strong arm, and was a legend at Mississippi State, where he set the SEC’s all-time hits record.
Doesn’t that all sound like something the Giants could use? It gets better! The left-handed hitter made it up to Triple A last year, where he hit .333/.365/.471 over 150 PA — all better than our benchmarks!
So why didn’t Mangum get protected? An almost complete lack of power — something that major league teams flee from with the same horror reserved for “gut instincts” these days. He’s a contact specialist who sprays singles around the field. He doesn’t walk all that much, but he rarely strikes out (15.5% at Triple A Syracuse). Not quite Steven Kwan-level contact skills, but pretty danged respectable!
Cam Devanney, SS/3B, Brewers
Devanney is one of the most interesting hitters available in this year’s draft — and he’s a player that the Giants should have some real insight into, since Vice President of Pro Scouting, Zack Minasian, and several members of his department, were part of the Milwaukee organization when Devanney was starting his career there. And, not for nothing, he went to college at Elon in North Carolina, so Michael Holmes no doubt has a good bead on him, too.
Devanney posted a 114 wRC+ in his second Double A campaign this year, with a .259/.340/.483 line that just scrapes over our benchmarks for success. He ended the year with 13 games in Triple A, and combined between the two, he had 32 doubles and 23 home runs. He’s a strong defender who can handle either shortstop or 3b, and a balanced hitter who mixes decent amounts of contact, approach, and power skills.
Blake Sabol, OF/C, Pirates
Look, I shouldn’t even mention Sabol. Dude is a Pirate! The optics of the Giants, at this point in time, trying to upgrade their roster with a kid who can’t make the Pittsburgh Pirates’ 40-man roster should almost be a disqualifying factor on its own!
But he’s also a power-hitting, left-handed corner OF who backs up at C, which feels like the type of player created in a laboratory with the specific intent of capturing Farhan Zaidi’s interest.
It feels like the experience of 2022 might have tempered the Giants’ desire to find ways to fit Yermin Mercedes types onto the roster — but this time he’s left-handed! Which could make a difference? The Giants have been looking for catching depth — and left-handed catching depth in particular — and while Sabol’s not adept enough behind the plate to start, or even be a primary backup, a third catcher who can help around the OF might fit the bill.
Devin Mann, 2B/3B. Dodgers
As long as we’re drifting through Zack Minasian’s past with Milwaukee, how can I help visiting some Dodgers from Zaidi’s past?
Mann was a teammate of Tyler Fitzgerald’s and Logan Wyatt’s at the University Louisville — a draft well that both the Dodgers and Giants have gone to in Zaidi’s times as a key decision maker in those organizations. Mann’s always been a highly selective hitter — in Double A Tulsa this year, he came very near to having more walks (43) than strikeouts (50) — and since joining the Dodgers’ organization, he’s added more power to his game as well, making him a solid all-around hitter. In 2022, he hit .264/.380/.464 between Tulsa and Triple A Oklahoma City.
The weakness in Mann’s game is, unfortunately, on the defensive side, which feels like it should cross him off as a Giants’ target. While he played all four infield positions this year, he’s fringy at all of them, and is stretched even at 2b. He also plays in the corner outfield, so he’s another player who can move all around the diamond, albeit with somewhat limited effectiveness.
Dude’s got some chops at the plate, though!
Ryan Noda, 1B, Dodgers
Another member of the Dodgers’ organization — though Noda came to LA by way of Toronto in a deal that shipped Ross Stripling north of the border. Noda is, in some ways, a better version of the Giants’ Wyatt. The lefty-hitting 1b walks a ton! Over five minor league seasons, he’s walked nearly 18% of the time, and owns a career .407 OBP. In fact, he’s never posted an OBP as low as .370 in his pro career.
But he’s also shown plenty of pop to go with all of that careful observation of the strike zone — especially since coming to the Dodgers. He’s hit 54 home runs in Double and Triple A in two seasons with the Dodgers’ organization, and posted a career best .271 Isolated Slugging in 2021 at Tulsa. As a 26-year-old in Triple A last season, he posted a solid .259/.395/.474 mark — not good enough for the über-talented Dodgers to clear a roster space, but maybe interesting enough for the Giants to take a look at in spring, given the current flux of their 1b position. Big on-base skills and lefty power? This does feel like a live one, Mickey!
Corey Julks, OF, Astros
I don’t want to deny new GM Pete Putila an old favorite or two to bring over to his new office either. Julks represents a terrific player development success story for Putila and his Astros colleagues. Midway through 2021, the right-handed hitting outfielder was taken off the active list, placed on the Developmental List, and sent back to Houston’s Florida-based spring training site to work on getting to more of his raw power. In three seasons, Julks, who plays some center field but mostly fits in corners, had hit just 15 home runs, with a high of 10 coming in 2018. But after a couple of weeks in Florida, the light bulb seems to have switched on. Since his return to active duty on July 20, 2021, Julks has hit 43 home runs, including a massive 31 HR campaign with Triple A Sugar Land in 2022. He’s gone from a player who homered once every 73 PA, before that developmental assignment, to one who has homered once every 19 PA since. Julks’ .270/.351/.503 line in the PCL last year is well above the benchmark norms for successful Rule 5 selections, even with the standard PCL-inflation applied. The power is matched by underlying hit data as well, as Julks posted elite Exit Velocities throughout his breakout season.
Houston offers up another option who might appeal to the Giants in outfielder Ross Adolph, who has always shown a solid approach at the plate and impressive swing decisions, but has never hit for the kind of power expected out of a corner bat. His underlying hit data, however, shows that the impact is in there, if a club could coax it out of him.
Nick Dunn, 2b, Cardinals
Dunn didn’t quite overlap with LaMonte Wade, Jr. at the University of Maryland — though he did play in a Cal Ripken Collegiate Summer League team right down the road in Silver Spring, MD during Wade’s junior year (or Junior’s junior year, if you’d prefer). Dunn, like Mangum, comes with the serious reservation of almost 20-grade power, which probably crosses him off the list of most front office types. But he did walk 63 times to just 42 strikeouts in Double A Springfield last season, while posting a perfectly respectable .271/.379/.391 line.
For what it’s worth, the left-handed 2b has set career home run records in each of the past two seasons: 6 and then 7. Honestly, that’s not terribly different from the levels of power that Tommy La Stella was showing as he was working his way up through the minors!
PITCHERS
Ok, now that I’ve spent all that time discussing position players, it’s time to acknowledge that hitters play a very small role in most Rule 5 drafts. The vast, VAST majority of players selected, year after year, are pitchers:
So, I really should have started with this group. But, I cannot tell a lie, I just like hitters more than pitchers! I was a Mays-McCovey kid, not a Marichal kid. Sue me!
Antoine Kelly, LHP, Rangers
This is the guy. For somebody, that is. Antoine Kelly is going to get picked in the Rule 5 Draft. He’s a left-hander with big time stuff. This industry fawns over left-handers with big time stuff with an unalloyed sense of longing. It’s why Erick Threets and Alex Hinshaw had such lock-holds on their 40-man spots on the Giants’ roster in days of yore.
Will that somebody be the Giants? Now recovered from thoracic outlet surgery (which he had in 2020), Kelly pushed his power fastball up to 98 last year with a wipeout slider. But he also has a long history of struggling with command — something the Giants take a dim view of. They want their players — on both sides of the ball — to control the strike zone.
After a promising first half in Wisconsin (in the Brewers’ system) in 2022 in which he struck out 31% of the batters he faced while posting a 3.86 ERA, Kelly moved up to Double A in the Rangers’ system after the Brewers made a deadline deal for Matt Bush. There Kelly’s command completely abandoned him. In about 20 innings, he posted a 28% K rate and a 22% walk rate. By comparison, Chris Wright, over a full season in Double A last year, had a 31% K rate and a 14% walk rate — and it was the walk rate that probably kept him from being a serious 40-man consideration.
Even with his power stuff, I’m not sure Kelly’s scattershot ability to throw strikes tempts the Giants into being the club that takes a chance on his future. But his name is going to get called by somebody!
Andrew Schultz, RHP or Erick Miller, LHP Phillies
Hey, we haven’t had a Gabe Kapler connection yet! So a couple of intriguing, injury-plagued relievers from the Phillies’ system deserve their moment of mention. Both Schultz and Miller had their development delayed by injuries that wiped out nearly all of the 2021 season (for Schultz it was Tommy John, for Miller a rotator cuff strain), coming on top of the lost 2020 season (in other words, very similar scenarios to the Giants’ Keaton Winn).
Schultz, like Kelly above, has plus stuff that comes with minus control. That, again, might put the Giants off of him, but the factor that just might kick him back into play for them is that his true killer pitch is a wipeout slider that sits in the high 80s. He actually commands the breaking ball much better than he does his fastball (similar to Camilo Doval as he was coming up), and he’s a real candidate for that particularly Giantsy pitch mix improvement that is roughly the equivalent of the old Steven Wright joke: why don’t they make the whole plane out of that black box stuff? Just throw the good pitch all the time! If you read writeups of Schultz, the name that often pops up is none other than Matt Wisler, a similar type whom the Giants had high hopes for. Selecting Schultz and seeing how effective he might be with an 85-90% slider rate could be an interesting notion.
Miller transitioned from a starter to reliever role in 2022, where his mix of a mid-90s fastball, sweeping slider, and excellent changeup should all play up. There are several candidates to fill in the vacancies left by the formerly reliable Jose Alvarez and Jarlin Garcia, but with the situation fully in flux, adding one more possibility to the spring auditions certainly isn’t a bad idea!
Ryan Fernandez, RHP, Red Sox
Fernandez’ rising fortunes are tied to rising velocity that pushed his four-seamer up to the 98-99 range in 2022. Fernandez is another pitch mix candidate, as he threw that four-seamer less than 50% of the time last year, despite it being his best pitch. He complements the fastball with a slider and cutter, giving him the same kind of power trio I wrote about with Michael Stryffeler. Fernandez struck out 33% of the batters he faced last year between High A and Double A, though his run prevention wasn’t quite as impressive. After posting a 4.00 ERA in the Sally (albeit with a more sightly 3.14 FIP), he moved up to the Eastern League and finished the year with a 4.97 ERA (and 4.44 FIP) over 12 brief innings.
Unlike some of the others on this list, Fernandez’ bat missing ways aren’t tied to strike-zone missing habits as well. In 39.2 IP last year, he walked just 11 batters, compared to his 56 strikeouts. It all adds up to a classic Rule 5 profile
Grant Anderson, RHP, Rangers
You may remember, in my podcast with Eno Sarris, that he laughed about the large amount of extreme slider throwers in the Giants’ system. They’ve been one of the many organizations that have moved heavily to the bat-missing pitch over the last few years, which should put Anderson in their sights, as he’s possessor of an extremely sweepey slider with some of the biggest lateral movement in the minors. Anderson’s slider averages 9-11” of sweep, but it also has qualities of a cutter, giving it more ride and less vertical fade than typical sliders. Unique pitch shapes or characteristics are catnip for most analytically inclined organizations. And that’s something else you can find all over the Giants’ organization. Pitchers like Evan Gates or Taylor Rashi have been able to ride unique pitch characteristics to statistical heights with the Giants, despite lackluster velocities.
Even better, Anderson commands the pitch extremely well, landing it in the strike zone 70% of the time in 2022. Anderson was exceptional in the Double A Texas League this year with a 32% strikeout rate, a 75-16 K to BB ratio, and a 2.80 ERA (3.59 FIP) over 54.2 IP. He finished the year with 12.2 innings in Triple A, striking out 16 more and walking just five.
Nic Enright, RHP, Guardians
Nobody in baseball has had more success developing pitchers the last few years than the Cleveland Guardians. In fact, the Guardians’ development techniques have been so successful that, like Tampa Bay, they’ve become a victim of their own success — developing more major league quality arms than they have room for on their 40-man roster.
Expect Cleveland to be the target of many teams in this and future Rule 5 drafts on the theory that if you can’t match their Pitcher Whispering methods, you can steal some of the overflow! Enright, who threw 37 innings in Triple A in the second half last year, is a likely candidate for teams looking to nip some of Cleveland’s excess. In 65 innings between Double and Triple A last season, he had a 2.88 ERA (equaled by a 2.89 FIP), held hitters to a .203 batting average, and struck out 87 batters while walking just 14. Enright, and other Cleveland pitchers, could also offer a little cherry on top incentive, bringing over some of Cleveland’s trade secrets for the incredible production they’ve pumped out of their pitching pipeline, as well!
The 25-year-old right-hander is polished and ready to go, and likely will get a spring training tryout from somebody.
Steven Cruz, RHP, Twins
One more big arm to round out today’s group. And Cruz’ arm is definitely BIG! He hits triple digits and sits in the upper 90s with his fastball, and pairs that with a slider that scrapes against the 90s itself. That’s a power arsenal that would look good in a major league bullpen for sure!
That bullpen would most likely be the Twins’ own, of course, IF he did a better job of commanding it. In 56 innings with Double A Wichita, Cruz walked half as many batters (35) as he punched out (72), which played a crucial role in his 5.14 ERA. Cruz’ high-powered arsenal is certainly tempting, but my guess would be the Giants are turned off by his failure to control the strike zone, and look elsewhere for potential help. The polished Enright seems more their style than the high variance wildness of Cruz.
That seems like a good group to be getting along with for now. Remember, though the Rule 5 Draft occupies a place of distinction for prospect watchers, a relatively paltry amount of players’ careers are ever affected by it. Typically a dozen or less players are selected — and far fewer stick with their new teams because: a) most players eligible for the Rule 5 are pretty fringy big leaguers, and b) the rules governing Rule 5 picks are onerous. With the Giants working hard on re-making their roster for a return to the post-season, I’m not sure that focussing on Rule 5 lottery tickets is likely to be their prime concern this winter. But you never know….those roster spots need to be filled somehow!
SPEAKING OF WHICH! We have more incoming:
Miguel Yajure comes from the Pirates (🤔….didn’t I just make a wisecrack about that above?), but he was originally a Yankees’ prospect, signed for a low, low $30,000 bonus as an international amateur back in 2015. The right-hander was a pitchability guy with a wide repertoire but limited fastball velocity — in some ways similar to the Giants’ own Mikell Manzano. But working with weighted balls, he added enough velocity to kick his two-seam fastball up into the low 90s, leading to a breakout in Double A that caused the Yankees to put him on the 40-man roster after the 2019 season.
He made his big league debut during the stunted 2020 season, and then was sent to Pittsburgh as the top prospect in the Jameson Taillon deal (he was ranked the #11 prospect in the Yankees’ system prior to the trade). Unfortunately, he lost a prime opportunity to get serious major league exposure in the Pirates’ rotation in 2021, when a right forearm injury derailed his season. He’s already been through Tommy John surgery once in his career as well (back in 2017). Yajure’s path to a big league opportunity with the Giants is a little hard to see. He’s out of options, and has never really established himself as either a starter or reliever at the big league level, where he has a 7.58 ERA in 46 innings, with a low rate of strikeouts (6.8 per 9 innings) and a high rate of walks (5.4 per 9). Still, one way to view his waiver claim is that the Giants see more potential value in Yajure than they do in most of the players available in the Rule 5 pool, which maybe tells us something about this whole exercise
As for potential losses, I’d say that there’s a fairly low chance that the Giants lose any of their players. But since I’ve suggested in previous posts that Nick Avila is a potential target and — a much longer chance — that Tyler Fitzgerald could conceivably tempt some teams, let me go one step further and see if I can find potential matches for the pair.
There’s not a key decision-maker in another organization who has greater knowledge of the Giants’ farm system than Texas’ new manager, Bruce Bochy. For the past two seasons, he’s spent most of his “Special Assistant” time focused on watching and evaluating Giants’ prospects, and he has keen insight into the organization’s arms. In addition, the Rangers (new home of Jacob DeGrom) are making their intentions to compete very clear and they’re in bad need of pitching depth. So, I’d keep an eye on the Rangers’ picks when it comes to Avila.
As for Fitzgerald, he would take a very specific set of circumstances, I think. He’s on a very short list for Best Athlete in the Giants’ system, he’s one of the fastest players in the system, has above average power, and he’s an excellent defender all over the diamond. On the flip side, those big strikeout totals and low batting averages will turn off a lot of teams. Who might be tempted by Fitzgerald’s virtues (besides yours truly)? It would have to be a team in great need of offensive help, a team that historically prioritizes premium athletes, and one that takes a somewhat cavalier approach to strikeouts. Am I crazy or did I just describe the Miami Marlins to a T? So let’s keep an eye on Miami’s turn come Wednesday.
I should note that Baseball America has, of course, done an even more extensive look at potential Rule 5 candidates — their list (at last count) exceeded 50 players who could potentially hear their names announced. And most of those focus on the “usual suspects” — Rays, Dodgers, Guardians, the same teams that leak excess talent all over the industry at every deadline of this sort. The Giants have just one player listed in that entire mass, and that’s the extremely funky Ryan Walker. I didn’t do a Rule 5 post on Walker, but his presence isn’t surprising — virtually every scout I’ve talked to likes him as a major league arm. His hard sinker and sweeping slider, coming from a highly unusual and deceptive delivery, should get him to the majors at some point. But the concern with Walker is that he’s bascially a ROOGY, which doesn’t really exist anymore due to the 3-batter rule. His value to teams is likely going to be tied to optionability, and that’s one thing a team can’t do with a Rule 5 pick. Still, he brings an extremely unusual look for hitters and that’s a virtue that is in vogue these days, so it wouldn’t be shocking if he ended up on a team’s with list — maybe Scott Harris and the Tigers? (Hunter Bishop and Will Wilson were also mentioned in that article as parts of the historically large group of 1st round picks to go unprotected, rather than as serious candidates to be selected).
Again, it’s not too likely that the Giants will lose either of these talented players — or any others — and that’s just the way we like it. No poaching, everybody! Hands off our guys. Good things are waiting in their futures …. as Giants, preferably!
Enjoy the draft, everybody!
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I should have mentioned this in the post but Wednesday's post is a little up in the air. I'm debating whether or not there will be enough action in the winter meetings to require a wrap up post -- Rule 5, draft lottery, trades, etc. Or if it will be a big flop and nothing much happens, in which case I'll proceed with some other posts I'm getting ready. Likely will be a game time decision Wednesday morning!
Thanks. I think I remember that now that you mention it.