I think it was a good draft. Some of the high tools draft guys in the past have just not gotten it together yet. Hunter Bishop, Vaughn Brown, Will Bednar, to name a few have for several reasons just not reached the level we’ve hoped for.
I like the sense of putting the ball in play and middle defense. I’m a firm believer that it’s easier to put a shortstop on third than the reverse.
Takes tools to play the game at the big league level. We'll see. It's a pretty rare draft that anything after the 1st round matters that much anyway. This graphic should always be top of mind when thinking of drafts
Im always fascinated by the small bump around rounds 7-9 after the small valley on 5-6. I wonder if it’s because teams take more risks on HS picks in the former vs underslot older college guys in the latter.
Or it could be just a random oddity or driven by a couple outliers… but that’s not as fun to think about
Thanks for considering all my questions, Roger! I found your answers interesting. They reinforced my view that this year’s loss of picks really hurt. For Willy Adames, fine! But I secretly hope each offseason the Giants are more conscious of signing players whom they can benefit from giving a QO to each year, as well as trading for comp picks. I heard Eric Longenhagen say recently that the market for comp picks is actually pretty weak; the Orioles got the 37th pick from the Rays for a middle reliever, which isn’t that much. That should be an opportunity. I think I also reject the premise about finding exceptional athletes in baseball, or the notion isn’t well-specified. I found your insight into the northeast scouts the most interesting. Those scouts may be an explanation of why there were so many northeast kids, but if true, I can’t see how that’s a good explanation. On Holmes and Zaidi, I think I’ve heard from you and Pavs now that that insularity was Zaidi’s central problem. That almost raises more questions for me. Who was in the circle? What kinds of decisions did they make? Though I must say, I don’t think “widening the circle” as opposed to risking losing “good resources” is a particularly strong defense of non-action; those are generic risks. I am left wondering what the meaning of ‘constant internal evaluation’ is if it doesn’t lead to apparent personnel changes or clear developmental improvements?
Maybe it will by impression of talking scouting with Holmes and others is that he is really a brilliant talent evaluator and letting him actually run a draft for while is probably a better idea than scouring around for a different Scouting Director who isn’t likely too be an improvement. I debated putting this but I’ve had multiple sources confirm that they had a different pick lined up rhat got sniped that probably would have left you with a different overall impression
Are you saying your sense is that Zaidi was responsible for draft picks, rather than Holmes? Assuming you’re referring to Fien or Carlson, yes that would give me a different impression (though I like Carlson considerably more)! So we can blame the lottery too (which really also means last year’s deadline management)!
What great stuff today, Roger. Thanks for the great reply on the Dominican setup, helping make sense out of my fumbling question. Oh, is it 'KEEL-en'? My mouth wants to go with 'KEE-len.'
I think it was a good draft. Some of the high tools draft guys in the past have just not gotten it together yet. Hunter Bishop, Vaughn Brown, Will Bednar, to name a few have for several reasons just not reached the level we’ve hoped for.
I like the sense of putting the ball in play and middle defense. I’m a firm believer that it’s easier to put a shortstop on third than the reverse.
Takes tools to play the game at the big league level. We'll see. It's a pretty rare draft that anything after the 1st round matters that much anyway. This graphic should always be top of mind when thinking of drafts
https://tangotiger.net/files/draft_WAR5.png
But here's hoping that Davidson and Jordan are exceptions!
Im always fascinated by the small bump around rounds 7-9 after the small valley on 5-6. I wonder if it’s because teams take more risks on HS picks in the former vs underslot older college guys in the latter.
Or it could be just a random oddity or driven by a couple outliers… but that’s not as fun to think about
Well that data goes back to 1966 and the kind of game theory you’re talking about is relatively new so probably not a big impact on historical trenda
Ahh great point, didn’t realize that. Yeah probably not!
Outstanding as always. Thank you.
Thanks for considering all my questions, Roger! I found your answers interesting. They reinforced my view that this year’s loss of picks really hurt. For Willy Adames, fine! But I secretly hope each offseason the Giants are more conscious of signing players whom they can benefit from giving a QO to each year, as well as trading for comp picks. I heard Eric Longenhagen say recently that the market for comp picks is actually pretty weak; the Orioles got the 37th pick from the Rays for a middle reliever, which isn’t that much. That should be an opportunity. I think I also reject the premise about finding exceptional athletes in baseball, or the notion isn’t well-specified. I found your insight into the northeast scouts the most interesting. Those scouts may be an explanation of why there were so many northeast kids, but if true, I can’t see how that’s a good explanation. On Holmes and Zaidi, I think I’ve heard from you and Pavs now that that insularity was Zaidi’s central problem. That almost raises more questions for me. Who was in the circle? What kinds of decisions did they make? Though I must say, I don’t think “widening the circle” as opposed to risking losing “good resources” is a particularly strong defense of non-action; those are generic risks. I am left wondering what the meaning of ‘constant internal evaluation’ is if it doesn’t lead to apparent personnel changes or clear developmental improvements?
Maybe it will by impression of talking scouting with Holmes and others is that he is really a brilliant talent evaluator and letting him actually run a draft for while is probably a better idea than scouring around for a different Scouting Director who isn’t likely too be an improvement. I debated putting this but I’ve had multiple sources confirm that they had a different pick lined up rhat got sniped that probably would have left you with a different overall impression
Are you saying your sense is that Zaidi was responsible for draft picks, rather than Holmes? Assuming you’re referring to Fien or Carlson, yes that would give me a different impression (though I like Carlson considerably more)! So we can blame the lottery too (which really also means last year’s deadline management)!
What great stuff today, Roger. Thanks for the great reply on the Dominican setup, helping make sense out of my fumbling question. Oh, is it 'KEEL-en'? My mouth wants to go with 'KEE-len.'