Depth Charts 2022: Catchers
Are the Giants still stacked behind the dish?
In case you were waiting for it, I should probably clear things up right now. I’m not going to write an entire post on each player in my Top 50 as I did last year — largely because it would be mostly redundant in my view. Last year, I gave the back story for every player in the 50, their amateur reports, the story of their signing, where they had improved their games, and where work remained. It all made compelling (I hope) reading, but that’s a trick I can only pull out of the hat once.
So this year’s Top 50 will be a slightly more condensed affair, probably going 5 or 10 at a time — with longer posts for the guys at the top. What I’d like to do instead for this year’s roll out, is go through a more public exercise of my process for determining the list in the first place. Where my Top 50 starts is with an assessment of the depth charts of every position from top to bottom of the organization, with assigned grades for future value. From there I rack and stack the players at various grade levels, taking into account position, upside, current development level, etc. Do that enough times and eventually you have 50 plus players in relatively short order.
So for the next few weeks, I’ll take you through that process. We’ll go position by position, take a look at how the position stacks up through the system, and assign some grades to all of the major players. That will lead us into the Top 50, and hopefully make the entire list a little more self-explanatory and transparent — maybe even give it a little more intellectual consistency!
With that preamble, let’s start behind the dish. Not too long ago, this would have been viewed as a position of tremendous upside, depth…even surplus talent! “What, you’re taking another catcher in the 1st round? Whatever for? You’re covered there for years!” Is that still the view of the Giants in the squaaat? Let’s see…
System Depth
First off, let’s take the bird’s eye view. Based on the way too early rosters, here’s how I’ve predicted the catching setup should look from top to bottom.
Obviously, there’s some wiggle room here. The Giants have shipped backup catchers up and down the system on a fluid conveyor belt, moving them around wherever there are needs for more bodies. Rob Emery and Max Wright both appeared at three different levels last season, while Ronaldo Flores, now gone to the Los Angeles Angels, was kept busy hopping back and forth between San Jose and Eugene. Even Cesar Gonzalez popped up from the complex level to Sacramento for a short stint at one point. Expect all of these guys (assuming they’re still in the organization) to do more stop-hopping in the coming season. At lot of that movement has to do with having enough bodies to catch all of the bullpen work that needs to be done, rather than actually getting into a lot of games.
The most notable aspect of this depth chart, though, is the complete absence of catching depth at the Triple A level. Presumably, the Giants’ claims on lefty-handed hitting backstops Dom Nuñez (late of the Rockies) and Meibrys Viloria (from the Rangers) was intended to help plug this gap, but both ended up continuing their peripatetic ways shortly after, and are now free agents. Perhaps, if they can’t find better offers elsewhere, the Giants will be able to circle back on one or both with a minor league contract. Or, perhaps we’ll see the return of guys like Jhonny Pereda, Andrew Knapp, or Patrick Mazeika — just some of the rather astonishing TEN different catchers employed by Sacramento last year. Ford Proctor, who was removed from the 40-man, has been outrighted to Sacramento and is still in the organization, though he fits as more of a utilityman who can catch, rather than a primary backstop. Pereda, by the way, was voted “Best Teammate” last year, so he might have a leg up on returning simply by scoring those “good guy in the locker room” points.
Maybe that’s just something in the nature of catchers — because a lot of these guys are certifiable “good dudes.” I’ll give a special shout out to Emery in that category. The kid from USF (and Dartmouth!) could not possibly be nicer — and he’s got some thunder in his bat as well!
[EDITOR’S NOTE: Pereda just signed a contract elsewhere. Certainly glad I noticed that ten minutes after posting!]
But I’m losing the thread of my commentary here! The point is, that upper level situation is a hole that needs to be filled, and given that somewhat precarious situation at the major league level — where Joey Bart still hasn’t really shown that he can be counted on to give quality at bats with consistency — I’d think filling it with someone with reasonable major league experience is probably a must. The Giants have taken an interesting gamble to supplement the current situation beyond last year’s Bart/Austin Wynns tandem by adding the intriguing OF/C belter Blake Sabol as a Rule 5 pick. If he is able to stick on the roster, he gives the team the left-handed hitting catcher they’ve tried to secure in repeated waiver claims, as well as a 3rd catcher who isn’t tying up a roster spot by being nothing more than a 3rd catcher.
One reason the top shelf of the cupboard is empty at the moment is that none of the catchers at Double A Richmond last year proved ready for a move up. Ricardo Genovés (who started with Sacramento and later moved down to Richmond) is no longer with the organization — after seven years of service, he’s a free agent as well (though, again, a reunion is always possible). Brandon Martorano had some promising moments early on in the season, showing some impressive power, but he ended the season in a prolonged slump, hitting just .196/.297/.317 from June 1 on. Martorano also needs to work on his catch and throw game. With the new rules leading to an uptick in base-stealing attempts, teams ran on Martorano pretty relentlessly last season, as he allowed 50 SB and caught just 18 runners in 2022. That said, he’s a little squeezed out of a spot at Richmond, so there’s some a chance he can be sent up to Sacramento for backup work. But with 1b opening up a bit more for Thomas, I still would expect Richmond to be Martorano’s home in 2023.
Everybody’s favorite utility man, Brett Auerbach, is likely also ticketed for a return to Double A next year after hitting just .220/.311/.398 (good for a 94 wRC+), and striking out in a third of his plate appearances. The play-everywhere Auerbach has a tendency to throw himself around pretty recklessly on a ballfield, and was often dinged up, which probably hurt his batting line, but he also got out of his game plan at the plate frequently, expanding the zone upwards on high fastballs that he couldn’t catch up with. Auerbach had a particularly miserable middle of the season, hitting just .181/.286/.327 between May 1 and July 30, with 88 strikeouts in 263 PA. He did end the year on a nice upswing, posting an .868 OPS after August 1, albeit with a K rate that still exceeded 30%. The smallish Auerbach is probably best-considered as a 3rd catcher option who can fill in at the position, while spending most of his time at other spots on the field. I’d think that regular work catching might wear him down. His best position, to my decidedly amateurish eye, is 2b, though he’s more than solid at 3b and LF as well. That said, Auerbach certainly provided the defensive highlight of the season last year, in full “tools of ignorance” glory!
That group will likely be joined this year by 2020 1st round pick Patrick Bailey. Bailey hasn’t exactly conquered High A in two tries, but I can’t see the Giants sending him back to that level a third time. The time has come to push him up to Double A and see if he can hold steady of the stronger parts of his game (his defense and left-handed swing), and improve on the parts that need fixing. Presumably, Andy Thomas will also be in line for a move up (which is going to make things a little cramped at that Double A level!). Thomas didn’t hit much after coming over from Seattle in the deal that sent Curt Casali and Matthew Boyd to the Mariners — in particular, he seem to have left his big raw power back in Everett, hitting 9 homers with the AquaSox and just one in 24 games with Eugene. He did show off his advanced eye, however, walking 15% of the time with the Emeralds. The left-handed hitter has legitimately above average raw power (as does the equally mountainous Wright). I got mixed reviews on Thomas as a defender and receiver, however, and he might in the end be more of a 1b/DH with catching ability (akin to Blake Sabol, who has now joined the Giants in the aftermath of the Rule 5 draft).
The bulk of the Eugene workload should now fall to the 20-year-old Panamanian, Adrian Sugastey. While Sugastey showed off his admirable leadership skills in San Jose, his offensive transition to full season ball didn’t quite live up to expectations. Some of that certainly had to do with a quad injury that took his legs out from under him for much of the middle of the season. Still, Sugastey showed a predominantly contact-oriented swing — much of which was fairly soft opposite field contact — and he’ll need to seek to do more damage going forward. Though still just a teenager last year, his 90th percentile Exit Velocity of just 97 mph (and max of just 105) leaves plenty of room for improvement!
Stockton’s own Zach Morgan is probably in line for the bulk of the starts in San Jose. It’s always hard to know what to expect out of players in their first pro season, but it’s worth remembering what kind of year Morgan had at Fresno State. Morgan hit .381 in his junior season — fifth best in the Mountain West Conference — and slugged .592. His 1.046 OPS was ninth best in the MWC, and he certainly made himself appealing to the Giants by walking (25) more times than he struck out (17) — that’s a puny 6.7% K rate! There’s always somebody who posts a surprising breakout performance in their first year — why not Morgan? I don’t have to remind any of you that There R Giants is officially a pro-Bulldogs site! Another local kid, Thomas Gavello, should be part of the picture as well. The UOP product played all over the infield in college, but looks like he might follow an Auerbach pack to a super utility role with the Giants.
It’s a little more questionable whether 20-year-old Onil Perez will move up to San Jose to join Morgan, or get another summer under the Arizona heat to develop the offensive side of his game. There is no doubt that Perez is a favorite of many within the Giants org, who hold Perez’ skills behind the plate and working with pitchers in very high regard. The bat is still a work in progress, however. So far he’s shown decent contact skills with a line-drive oriented, flat-planed swing. He’s limited the strikeouts and put up solid batting averages (.282 in two seasons) and OBP (.380). There hasn’t been much impact as of yet, however, as he has just a .107 isolated slugging in his career.
There should be at least one Perez starting at catcher in the ACL this year, however, as the million dollar backstop Juan Perez is a pretty sure bet to move up to the domestic complex. Like Onil, Juan is a defensive-first catcher whose strengths come from his soft receiving, strong arm, and strong leadership skills. Senior International Scouting Director Joe Salermo has said that the organization sees many of the same qualities they prize in Sugastey in terms of Perez’ ability to run the game from the squat. Like Onil, Perez’ offense has much work to do to get his swing to be a danger to pitchers. He did hit three home runs in the DSL, but the .294 SLG and .072 Isolated Slugging suggest much more needs to be done to leverage his natural strength into his swing.
At the DSL level, there wasn’t a lot of catching depth last season. I’d anticipate seeing several more catchers signed in this year’s crop of international free agents when they’re announced in mid-January. Bringing in three or four new backstops on the international side (particularly coming out of Venezuela) is basically an annual rite of passage for every organization.
Prospect Value
Though I teased the question at the top, I don’t think there’s any doubt that the overall sense of the Giants’ catching depth has taken a hit in the last two years. Remember those heady days when people talked of the Giants seeking creative ways to get both Bart AND Bailey’s bat into the lineup at the same time — “universal DH is coming, folks!” Two years down the line this ….. doesn’t really seem like it’s going to pose a significant problem.
That’s because both, I would say, have dropped some perceived value over the last two years. And, before I get too far down the road on today’s post, I will be referring to Future Value in these depth charts, using the 20-80 Scouting Grade. Briefly stated, the 20-80 scale (supposedly created by Branch Rickey), is used by scouts to assign expected future outcomes to prospects. Players given a 50 grade, or “role 5 players” are expected to be average major league starters. Every move up or down the scale essentially takes you further away from that mean in one direction or another. In the end, you have something that looks like this:
When you get down to the 30 or 20 portions of this scale, you’re dealing with players who don’t have much of a chance to ever appear in the majors. Of course, there’s tons of uncertainty in scouting, so “intermediate” grades are often used (ie, 45 or 55; or sometimes you’ll see + to hedge bets, as in 40+ or even, combining both techniques, 45+). Keep in mind that there’s an awful lot of gray area in all of these grades, and players can bounce around from level to level during their major league career. Consider Brandon Crawford, who has been an All Star three times, has had a peak of 6.3 fWAR (in 2021) which is superstar levels, and a low of 0.4 fWAR (in 2019), which is verging too close for comfort towards a bench role.
All of this is fluid, but that’s the basic idea. If you want to dig into the idea further, I’d recommend you read Kiley McDaniel and Eric Longenhagen’s excellent book, Future Value. Longenhagen also wrote an excellent short primer on the math behind FV and the range of expected outcomes for every grade, which is a fantastic quick read as well that I recommend. That piece is great for managing expectations for prospects (if you have two 70 grade prospects, your chance of getting two star players out of them is only about 6%!)
Bart has passed on from prospect-related conversations, but generally I’d say he gave some glimpses of his potential last year, while also failing to ever ride that momentum to a level of consistent productivity. Heading into his age 26 season, he’s coming off of a year in which he managed just 0.6 WAR, while sustaining hopes that an average or better starting catcher is still in there. I wouldn’t pin my hopes much above average, however, and 2023 is probably his final chance to prove to the Giants that they shouldn’t be looking to upgrade the position (if indeed, they don’t seek at least a partial upgrade there this winter).
If the organization does seek to move on from Bart over the next 12 months, it wouldn’t appear that Bailey is going to be the immediate answer, either. When originally drafted, Bailey was considered the best defensive catcher in the draft, with average or better than average power — particularly from the left side — and enough potential as a hitter to clear the comically low bar at the big league level. That was enough to place a 50 or 55 grade on him — an average or above average big league regular.
Since then, he’s hit just .211/.325/.378 over parts of two seasons in High A. There are still things to like about Bailey and his potential. He’s an excellent framer and a has a solid arm. Pitchers like working with him (including the top pitching prospect in the system). At the plate, he showed some of the best swing decisions in the org — at least so far as not chasing is concerned; he can get a little overly passive on balls that could be whaled on. That could be an indication of some waning confidence brought on by the lack of success. Overall, from the left side he presents a solid “walks and dingers” profile, though the overall feel for hitting has been a little below average. His right-handed swing, as has been much discussed, has been a virtual nonentity so far as a pro. He hasn’t had many opportunities to use it in games as a pro (barely over 100 ABs in two years) and the swing has regressed so much that Kyle Haines has suggested that it needs to be completely overhauled — and could, like many switch hitters, need to be abandoned at some point. There also have been some other concerns with Bailey’s game. Scouts ding his overall athleticism, and I’ve heard a few scouts complain about his body language issues — though my personal view is that some scouts rely a little too much on the benefits of reading into body language on the field. Haines has said that Bailey is so fluid behind the plate he sometimes makes it look too easy.
The basic elements of a major leaguer starter are still there — an excellent framer and receiver with a good arm and some pop in the bat. But it looks like it will take a little while for the elements of his game to come together, and the ceiling has lowered a little from his pre-draft expectations. For now, that is. Catchers always take awhile to develop, and trying to develop two different swings in addition to all of a catcher’s other duties is serious lift. Right now it’s hard to project more than a 2nd division starter or backup future for Bailey, which puts him down in the 45 grade, but a strong campaign in Double A could certainly change that view.
I’m also putting a 45 for right now (maybe a 45+) on Sugastey. I was a little surprised, when I asked around this year, to find that he’s becoming something of a split camp player. I know scouts who are extremely high on his two-way potential, and others who are, in the parlance, “out” on him. From what I can gather, scouts who are lower on him worry that his body is going to get big enough to limit his mobility behind the plate as well as his receiving and framing ability.
On the other hand, the Giants love his intangibles AND his tangibles. He has a strong enough arm to control the running game, and manages his pitching staff well. At the plate, Sugastey looks like a player who should develop into a strong hitter, but this year was a step backwards on that front. He has excellent contact skills and a sweet, opposite field line drive sort of swing. Outside of the DSL, only Diego Rincones had a lower K rate in the Giants’ system this year than Sugastey’s 15.6%. But he has work to do turning that contact into hard contact. Mostly, that can be chalked up to playing in full season ball as a 19-year-old, but it would be nice to see a little more hard contact and a little more power in his game in 2023.
Auerbach is close to the 45 range as well — as Utility player, but given his offensive struggles this year, I’ve knocked him down to a 40. His overall versatility — defense all over the field, power, speed, and a big jolt of energy — make him a perfect jack-of-all-trades fit on a roster. He has plenty of power — he’s hit 17 home runs in each of the past two seasons — and gets on base at a good clip, thanks to a healthy walk rate. With all of that going for him, he doesn’t have to hit a ton to be a contributor to a major league team, but getting the slash line above league average will probably be a bar he needs to clear — and I think anybody who knows him believes he can do it.
For now, I have the two Perez kids in my 35+ category (see, I told you you can put all of the little gradient fudges together to take some of the hard mathematical edges off of the grading system). In both cases, it’s just because we need to see them mature a little and develop more of an offensive upside. Neither Onil nor Juan hit a ball 100 mph last year, so essentially, I’m giving them grades that say: “I like you. I’m keeping an eye on you. But we’ll need to see more from you as you mature.”
Two others in my 35 category (without a +) are Thomas and Morgan. In Thomas’ case, you have a left-handed batter with big raw power and a huge walk rate. But I’m a bit skeptical that he’s really a catcher and not a 1b/DH/C. That’s enough to get an up and down tag but I’ll conservatively leave it there. For Morgan, it’s just a matter of lack of professional track record. It wouldn’t be a shock to see him make a big impression this year, but it wouldn’t be a shock to see the pro game knock him around a bit either. We’ll know more in a year!
Another member of the 2022 draft class was Puerto Rican 18-year-old, Nomar Diaz, and he’s a kid we really don’t know much of anything about as of yet. At the time of the draft, Scouting Director Michael Holmes was enthusiastic about his potential. “I think he's got skills on both sides of the ball, obviously we like his catch and throw. He moves really well behind the plate. He blocks well, we like his arm strength…But we think his bat is pretty far along for his age as well. It'll take a little bit more time on the offensive side, just like most young players.”
I’m not putting him up in the 35 category as of yet, but a year in the complex will help fill in some of the gaps for us on the teenager. And speaking of the complex, while Anza hasn’t shown much ability with the bat in his two seasons as a pro, he has a huge arm, which seems worth mentioning. All of these guys have something that makes them stand out in their own way.
Finally, let’s talk about Rule 5 guy Sabol. Like all Rule 5 picks, he’s in a tricky spot. He’s done nothing but hit as a professional and has some pop. If he were a full-time catcher, he’d certainly seem to clear the bar for major league hitters with ease. But his scouting reputation is that he’s clearly not an everyday backstop, and limited enough to not really be a consideration as a true backup either. That makes him an interesting hybrid who does several things competently, but nothing really well enough to secure a full-time spot. That’s a pretty clear 35 grade for me, maybe edge it up to 35+ because his track record of hitting is pretty strong. The problem for Sabol is pretty clear in colloquial name for a 35 grade: “up and down guy.” Since the prescriptions that come along with being a Rule 5 selection prohibit moving up and down, he’ll either need to rise above that label to stick, or fall back to a non 40-man player in the Pirates’ system. The more I look at Sabol, however, the more mysterious I find it that Pittsburgh couldn’t have made some use him themselves.
So that makes my final depth chart for the position look like this:
There’s potential there for upwards development — particularly in the lower levels — but we’re still a little ways away from seeing much near-major-league ready help coming along at the position.
We’re going around the diamond, so next up is going to be 1b, which is a bit of a muddle, and not always a position that gets a lot of love from the scouts. Hopefully, we can clarify things just a little bit…
"worry that his body is going to get big enough to limit his mobility behind the plate as well as his receiving and framing ability." I wonder if that's what eventually did Genovese in. Seemed like he showed enough hitting at the early levels to give some hope there.
Crikey! So much for a position of strength (as had been thought). I sure hope the rest of the positions have a more positive view or its looking like the farm took a really big step back in '22.