"From the Best Coast" Edition of the Free For All Mailbag

Flew in from Miami Beach, BOAC!

Well, not really. In actuality, it was a UA flight from DCA. Still, I’m back where I belong, baby! Feeling in a Cali frame of mind and all that. Hit me with your best questions, statements-dressed-up-as-questions, and general wonderings, and I will respond in my best laid-back manner while enjoying a ToGos sandwich of some nature with avocado spread on it and remembering my misspent youth. It’s one of my favorite weeks of the baseball calendar. Back home and ready to rock!

Andy

The Arizona Fall League schedule just came out. Who do you see the Giants sending this year?

Maui Ahuna, Cole Foster, Parks Harber, and Nate Furman all missed extended time. Ryan Murphy and R.J. Dabovich are just coming back too.

I feel like the most likely “highlight” candidate at this point is probably Dakota Jordan. He’s lost a bit of reps thanks to the oblique strain (and its apparent return), and the AFL would be a great place to get a look at how his skills play against a slightly better class of pitching than the Cal League, assuming he’s ready to go in another month or so. I think you’re right on with Furman and Harber as well. They seem like good calls. Ahuna would absolutely be a natural to go — if he’s healthy, which has been a little bit of an issue for him. Foster doesn’t seem like a terribly strong candidate at this point; I think they have things to iron out with him in a lower-profile environment. The Giants almost always send a catcher or two to help out with all the bullpen sessions that need handling. That could point to Drew Cavanaugh returning for a second straight year, or perhaps a first time for Onil Perez. He’s hardly played behind the dish since moving up to Double-A Richmond, where Adrián Sugastey is putting on a real Iron Man performance this summer.

On the pitching side, the Giants almost always send a group of arms from the High-A roster. That roster is a little on the thin side right now, but I can see guys like Ben Peterson, Austin Strickland, or even Liam Simon getting some fall ball action in. And Dylan Carmouche seems like a natural to absorb some starter innings — his season got a late start as well.

Guys who are coming off TJ do need a special handling and extreme innings monitoring, but we saw it last year with Andrew Painter returning in the Fall, so I think you could be entirely right about Murphy, who has just started to return to competitive ball. Dabovich has sadly gone right back onto the IL after just one short outing in Richmond. Hopefully, it’s not a long-term thing, but I wonder if he’s maybe not in the right place just yet for a fall assignment.

The other pitcher who could be part of this group is someone who has seen AFL action before — though not as a pitcher. Reggie Crawford is ramping up in bullpens (according to his Instagram account) and eager to get back in front of hitters. Could he be part of an AFL contingent? I’ll say this much: with a very interesting Rule 5 decision waiting for Crawford in November, I think if the Giants do send him to the AFL and have him pitch in front of the entire industry, it will suggest heavily that they are leaning towards protecting him. If, on the other hand, his return to action takes place on back fields in Instructional Camp, then that might be a sign in the other direction.

The most interesting — though I’ll admit, highly unlikely — player the Giants could send, however, is probably Jhonny Level. If the 18-year-old impressed the Giants enough with his play at San Jose down the stretch that the front office wanted to challenge him further, the AFL would be a great learning environment for him. And, though I’ll admit it seems farfetched, it’s worth considering that he’d actually be a bit older — and have only slightly less full-season experience — than Leo de Vries when the Padres sent him the AFL last year, where he was the talk of the league.

So, let’s see. A likely eight or nine man contingent? Let’s say Jordan, Ahuna, Furman, Harber, Perez, Peterson, Strickland, Carmouche, Crawford. Nothing I like better than being wrong in public!

Andy

The Giants are rumored to another top international SS. What have you heard about his skill set? Where would you rank him next to Level and Josuar Gonzalez?

Yes, the Giants should be sitting down in their conference room in Felipe Alou Baseball Academy with the bunting and signage out next January 15 to ink Venezuelan shortstop, Luis Hernandez, to potentially the top contract across all teams in next year’s IFA class. Hernandez, though still just 16, played in Venezuela’s professional summer league this year — a league where former MLB veterans participate regularly. As friend of site, GPT, noted, when Hernandez was participating in the league’s championship game this summer, one of the players on the other team was former Giant, Gorkys Hernandez.

So, it really is meaningful that this literal boy among men performed as well as he did down there, winning the league’s “Young Player of the Year” award. You can find footage of him around various corners of the internet, including by simply following GPT on Bluesky, where, as ever, he’s on top of all things that connect “international” and “Giants.”

As for comparing him to Level and Gonzalez, there are a few notable differences. First of all, he’s a right-handed hitter only, not a switch-hitter like the other two, which means that he’ll have to navigate the gnarly world of same-side sliders as he works his way up the development ladder. My impression from the video I’ve seen of him and small bits of info I’ve picked up here and there is that he is a much more “bat first” type of player than either Gonzalez (who looks to be a slam dunk defensive shortstop, and quite possibly an exceptional one) or Level (who I think has the athleticism and defensive ability to stick at short if need be, though there’s a good chance he ends up at 2b long term). Both of those guys seem more “quick twitch” players to me, while Hernandez value is in his swing.

Like the other two, however, Hernandez is not a big player. He’s another sub-6-foot player, and I know some people who are a trifle skeptical about his physical projectability going forward (that’s been true of Level since they signed him as well; he’s probably as big as he’s going to get from the start). Still, his track record of hitting against players much, much older than him is very impressive, and he should come into pro ball ready to rake — which is different from, say, Gonzalez who has all the tools you want to see in an offensive player, but still has a lot of learning to do about how to put them all together.

Bottom line is that Giants’ fans should be excited to have all three of these guys in the system, and once Eldridge graduates, I’d guess this trio will be jockeying for the top position for the next few years. Personally, at this moment in time, I’d have them ranked: 1) Gonzalez, 2) Level, and 3) Hernandez. But Hernandez has the offensive potential to leap-frog the others with his performance.

Alexi Zemsky

More of a check in, rather than a question on this one. Have you seen any evidence of organizational evolution on the hitting development side? In terms of acquisitions/draft strategy it seems that we have shifted away from the ideal of god-level plate discipline practitioners towards an emphasis on bat to ball merchants. Interesting. But have you heard any whispers about a new organizational initiative on bat speed training? Swing path training? Does BP look different? Any new unique technologies visible from the press box?

I feel like I’ve gotten some version of this question in most every mailbag lately. Though I can’t say this definitively, my impression from conversations I’ve had is that the Giants do not focus on bat speed training. Bat path is a different story — I think everybody tries to work on cleaning up bat paths because there is so much data out there now. But I would gather that when talking about bat path training, you’re thinking about the kind of thing the Red Sox PD folks have talked about —which is essentially trying to optimize all players towards a single bat path, and that the Giants definitely are not doing. They seem to be much more about letting players be who they are and trying to get to the best version of whoever that is.

As for batting practice, though it can be different from day to day, it’s basically the same as previous years where I’ve seen it (and there are certainly many places where I can’t see it, though several that I can as well). All in all, little has changed that I can tell about the way they are preparing this year, either in terms of process or visible technology (and there always has been a decent amount of visible technology around over the past five years).

For good or ill, I really do feel like optimizing measureables is not where the organization’s head is at right now, in terms of player development. They’re looking at things in a different way.

Dylan

Hi Roger, multi part question with one central theme:

I know you were fairly down on Casey Schmitt's defense at 2B as spring training was wrapping up and the roster crunch for the starting 2B was in full swing. Has his play this season improved enough in your estimation to keep the bench warm for a couple years until someone rising through the ranks can claim to job for the long term or is 2B a priority for the Giants to address in the offseason? Is there a FA you'd like over others for the role?

Follow up to that, within the farm system is it pretty much just Gavin Kilen that looks like our future second baseman at this point or does maybe Jhonny Level take over SS and Willy Adames slides over to 2B? I just don't have a lot of hope for anyone in the AAA or AA ranks coming to take the job and run with it.

Thanks!

Hi Dylan. I certainly think that Schmitt has shown real growth this year on the offensive side, and it’s worthwhile keeping a path open for him to try to lock the position down next year if he can. I don’t know if I am “down” on his defense per se. I think he has his strengths and weaknesses at the position. He’s definitively a gifted defender as I wrote about in last week’s mailbag. He just has a sort of physicality that tends to play better on corners. However, if he hits, that’s certainly easy enough to overlook at 2b. But he has to hit — and I don’t really know that 110 wRC+ is enough of a bar for him to really be a long-term answer at any position. That’s very much for me the gray area of potential upgrade. I think that he probably needs to have another big development leap on either the offensive or defensive side next year. To really grab the position and run with it, I suspect we’d need to see something more along the lines of a Jake Cronenworth or Gleyber Torres level of offensive production, which is more in the 120 wRC+ area. In fact, Torres may be a perfect comp for what the Giants hope to see from Schmitt the next few years. A lefty masher, solid offensive production, and stable, averagish defense.

I don’t tend to play the “future X position” game too much myself, because too much will change in the course of a few years. Obviously, players get traded, other players get signed to multi-year deals, and, of course, the big thing — players regress or stall in their development. Right now, I’d say that Kilen and Level are certainly both in the position to take that role at some point in the future — and Adames moving over at some point before his deal is done is also a possibility. But this front office is going to have enough on their plate trying to figure out what to do with this roster for 2026 without worrying about 2029 at the moment.

One thing that Sporcle quizzes have taught me: it’s actually quite rare in Giants’ history for any one position to be locked down by a single player for years at a time.

David Hobstetter

Among the Giants’ prospects who aren’t top 10 type guys at the moment, are there notable players that have really loud tools and the potential to make big leaps?

Hey David, I’d say that in general, the top 10 is the land of the really loud tools. This system, while improving, still isn’t to the point where there are a whole lot of 70 or 80 grade tools lingering around in the “back nine” of the prospect rankings.

But, let me look over my current rankings and see if I can find any real exceptions:

There are certainly some guys with big fastballs outside of the top 10 — Gerelmi Maldonado, Liam Simon, Reggie Crawford and the like. They, of course, are held back because other areas of their game are lacking (command, for the most part, though the all-important “health” tool certainly factors in as well). And there are also some folks with really big power but enough issues with the overall hit tool that I can’t bump them up too much (Jakob Christian could stand in for this group).

But if we’re thinking about players who might take a big step forward, I want someone with more than just one major tool. So let me suggest a couple of guys who could put things together in the future. Jose Ortiz is a player who I feel is starting to become somewhat mythical, because I keep writing about him and we just never see him on the field. But he’s a player with at least 50s and maybe 60s on his scouting card for a number of complementary tools: glove, arm, and speed. And there’s some real feel for hit there and sneaky pop. He’s just been absolutely waylaid by physical issues — which is probably not that surprising given how small he is.

Maui Ahuna has almost the exact same writeup. He is a tremendously fluid and instinctive fielder at the most important spot on the field. He can run well, has a big arm (though the TJ surgery seems to have had some impact there), and, though there are still real contact issues, he has a surprising amount of strength and power in his lean frame. But staying on the field has been a real issue thus far.

Lisbel Diaz is a player who has generated real excitement based on his power — and that’s very legit — but he has a number of other assets as well. Like Ortiz, he’s in the running for the best outfield arms in the system (I think Ortiz has him), and for a big kid, he can really run. I think we forget how young he is — he just turned 20 in July. If he refines his approach at the plate, there’s a chance for a big leap at some point. Walker Martin hasn’t really developed into the runner that I think the Giants anticipated him being when they drafted him, but he does make some really hard contact from the left side and has the arm for 3b. And speaking of arms, Adrián Sugastey might be an 80 thrower from the squat, as well as a quality receiver. There’s a little bit of pop there, too, but obviously the offensive profile right now is still pretty weak. And I still think that Rayner Arias has a big jump in him at some point. One issue that the two wrist injuries have caused with him is that he just hasn’t been able to hit the weight room the way some of his contemporaries have, and that’s caused him to fall behind in terms of pure strength. But as the injuries get further in the rear view, he should be able to make up ground and bring the impact back to his swing.

And then I’ll end with a new guy. I’ve heard pretty good things about the Giants’ 4th round pick, Lorenzo Meola, out of Stetson. Like Ahuna, it sounds like the shortstop skills are there, but he might a better hitter in terms of both making contact and hitting the ball hard. I’m very interested to see him in action next year (couldn’t figure out a time to make my Bridge League trip this year, sadly; schedule just didn’t work out).

Kent Iverson

Hey Roger,

Thank you for the great content! If you were a member of another MLB organization negotiating a trade with the Giants, which Giants’ prospects would you target on the basis of presenting the best value (for example, potential future value vs. consensus rating).

That’s an interesting question, Kent — though I have to say that I’m afraid to answer this. Last year, I wrote a lot about Jose Bello being this sort of sneaky value type of player — and look what happened there!

However, what’s interesting about the Giants’ farm in 2025 is that I think a lot of the guys who might have been “sneaky future value” players really had their blow up this year — so they aren’t that sneaky anymore. Argenis Cayama, Keyner Martinez, Luis de la Torre, Alberto Laroche — these guys aren’t surprises anymore. Everybody knows who they are. And, I don’t really think there are likely to be copies of them next year.

But let me think of some names. I do think that Martinez might be the top guy I’d be trying to get out of the Giants right now. He is one of the most advanced strike throwers in this organization — that was true before he took a huge step forward with his stuff, and it’s still true now. And I really like his changeup, which is his third best pitch. I’ll have to talk to a lot of people about this before we get to the mid-winter lists, but right now I’m seriously considering having him at the back of my Top 10. He’s probably my #1 answer here, but I’ll try to think a little deeper for you.

I think that Fernando Vasquez is a really interesting arm. His story is so unique — he’s been cooling his heels in the Dominican for four summers trying to get healthy, and just exploded this year, jumping from the Dominican up to the Cal League in two months. He’s strictly a reliever, but I think there could be a leverage big league arm there. It’s a unique fastball, and his changeup could be a weapon as well. I also think that Niko Mazza is a pretty interesting arm. He’s got a nice assortment of pitches with some good shapes. He hasn’t been terribly efficient in his first year, nor gone really deep in games, but I think there could be something interesting there.

But if you’re looking for a total lottery ticket type who could conceivably blow up into something somewhere down the line, I might tab the 16-year-old catcher in the Dominican, Miguel Caraballo. He has a big frame and he’s going to get big and strong, I think. Currently, he moves pretty well behind the dish. He has a nice swing from the left-hand side, and developing power. It’s certainly not the most likely outcome, but there’s some chance he could grow into a left-handed power-hitting catcher, and that would be tremendously valuable if it comes about.

There are also a few long-play sort of arms in the Dominican who have big bodies who might turn into something someday. My favorite of these is probably lefty Leandro Rodriguez, but there are a few other real long-shot types — guys like Iverson Paulino and Luis Hernandez. The most likely outcome is that they never get off the island, but there’s a non-zero chance that the physicality explodes at some point and takes the stuff with it. And I think that Jose D. Gonzalez is interesting as well, just because he’s such a good strike thrower. There’s not much there that misses bats at this point, however. Some sessions in the weight room might do him well. None of those arms are close to where Bello was at this time last year — or even where Bello was two years ago, so they’d probably not be worth asking about until some more development is in evidence.

Chet Brown

As a huge fan of both Tristan Beck and Casey Schmitt , I feel compelled to want to trade them. I think Beck deserves a chance to start, and I think he’d have that opportunity somewhere else. Same for Schmitt as an everyday 3B.

Do you think either wants out to chase those opportunities? What could the pair as a package or part of one bring back in return, and what could the Giants be looking for? 1 year of Freddy Peralta?

I’m sure that Beck would welcome the chance to spend an entire year in the majors, rather than riding the bus back and forth to Triple-A (I’m not sure if that welcome would extend to being a full-time denizen of Sutter Health Park with the A’s). That said, he’s a California kid, he went to school at Stanford, and his Giants’ teammates are guys he’s played and developed with for years, so I would think he’s pretty comfortable in this organization. I’m sure if a trade happened, like all players, he’d process it and move on, but I don’t know that he’d be actively hoping for such a thing. I also would say that, given that his Stuff+ numbers are pretty low this year (his fastball Stuff+ is 82, with 100 being a major league average pitch, and no single pitch of his grades out as average for a big leaguer), there’s not necessarily any team he could be dealt to that would ensure he got that opportunity for any length of time. It’s entirely possible, and maybe probable, that another team would be looking at him for a role not so dissimilar to the one he fills with the Giants.

As for Schmitt, I don’t imagine he feels slighted at all to be playing 2b rather than 3b — certainly not enough to want to be uprooted from the only organization he’s ever known and a situation that I’m sure he’s comfortable in. I would think he’s happy to have a chance to play regularly and looking to put a stranglehold on that 2b job.

If he is successful in those efforts over the next couple of months, it’s hard for me to understand what the Giants would gain in trading him, as they’d just be (presumably) attempting to fill one hole by opening another. If they think he can be a 2-4 WAR starting 2b over the next several years, that’s too valuable to move away from. And if they don’t, then it’s not that likely another team would value him all that differently. I would imagine that if the Brewers wanted to move someone like Peralta, they’d be looking to get youth back in return, which is not necessarily the strongest assets that the 29-year-old Beck and 26-year-old Schmitt have to offer.

PGBreaker

I saw Eldridge have his bat break last game and it has made me wonder: Is it just me or are we seeing an epidemic of broken bats? I heard Kruk mention birch is being used for bats. Any ideas?

I don’t think it’s anywhere near as bad as it was at the beginning of the century, when bat shapes started changing to put much more of the weight at the end with skinny handles that couldn’t support it, and maple bats became standard. If you can cast your memory back there, oh lord, you might recall that around the turn of the century, seeing players break bats on check swings was not at all uncommon. Today, I would say that seeing a play like the one you’re talking about is pretty uncommon — I’ve seen maybe two or three broken bats going flying like that in my various wanderings this year.

Steve Pei

The PCL is a hitter’s league with a bunch of stadiums that exaggerate hitting. Obviously, we’re not the only team with AAA in the PCL, but curious in your view if the Giants are structurally, longer term worse off in their positional player development because of it vs teams in the International League. I know the counterpoint is the Dodgers are able to develop just fine but following your work closely over the last few years and then watching how badly guys flounder coming up makes me wonder if the PCL hurts us. At the very least it seems to make it harder to judge when a player is ready.

It’s definitely a challenge — and it’s been a challenge for a long, long time. And obviously, that’s not only the case for the Giants. Arizona’s PCL club plays in Reno, one of the most hitter friendly of all the PCL mountain-zone stadiums, and they have notably had a lot of young players tear it up at Reno and then really struggle to establish themselves as big league hitters: Alek Thomas, Jake McCarthy, Pavin Smith, Gabriel Moreno, and others (the Padres rarely get their prospects up to the majors, so they’re a difficult test case).

But if you’re asking me whether teams with PCL affiliates are at a structural disadvantage from those with IL affiliates, I’m not sure I see a case for that. Jackson Holliday tore up the International League playing in Norfolk at age 20, was the consensus top prospect in baseball, and has come up (and down and up again) and struggled to establish himself as a successful big league hitter. With 700 MLB PA under his belt, he’s a 83 wRC+ hitter so far in his career. And he’s not the only Oriole hitting prospect who hasn’t translated Norfolk success into a career at Camden Yards either. Colton Cowser, Heston Kjerstad, Coby Mayo — Baltimore has struggled as much as any franchise in baseball to perfect that final transition. And I don’t need to pick on Baltimore. I could find similar examples from the other IL clubs as well. As Baltimore GM Mike Elias expounded on at length last year, figuring out when a kid is ready for the top level is the hardest decision in the game.

I’ll go a step further than Mike and drop my little hot take: major league readiness is a myth. No one is ever ready for that step — and how could they be? The stuff, the speed, the power — it’s just not possible to really prepare yourself for it without being in the middle of. And there will be struggles, either immediately, or eventually. Probably both.

If anything, the granular level of data these days can help teams make more informed decisions. For instance, if we take the case of Bryce Eldridge, it’s very easy to drill down into the numbers and see what he’s doing well and where he’s having issues. Obviously, he’s hitting for a lot of power, but let’s separate out his results against the type of pitching he’s unlikely to see in MLB. Half of Eldridge’s 12 home runs in Sacramento have come on fastballs thrown at 93 mph or slower, at or above the belt. Those are fun to watch! But he’s not going to see a ton of those in the bigs (though he will see some, and it’s good to know he’s going to render them unsuitable for further activity when he gets the chance!). While his ISO on fastballs 93 mph or under is a laughable .545, when you bump that velocity up to over 94 mph, it drops down to a more pedestrian .143 with just one home run.

And then, of course, there is the big issue that he’s having in the PCL — which I’ve been talking about since I was watching him in Richmond earlier in the year — offspeed stuff down at the bottom of the zone. Eldridge’s whiff rate on changeups and breaking balls in Triple-A right now is an unsustainable 55% — and nearly all of that is coming down at the knees. If we change the parameters to look only at the bottom third of the strike zone and below, it leaps up to a howl-inducing 72%!!! For those of you having a panic attack after reading those numbers, allow me to bring your heart rate down by noting that Eldridge’s SLG on off-speed pitches higher than that lower third bottom of the zone is .811, and his ISO on such pitches is .459. It’s the location that’s the issue, not necessarily the spin — and fortunately, even major league pitchers can’t put every offering at the knees (also, he’s still 20).

I suspect that for all teams attempting to make the call on when to bring players up from Triple-A, it’s going to be progress made at that sort of granular data level that will be important in final decisions, rather than simple slash line stuff and highlight-reel dingers (no matter how impressive). However, even armed with data that deep, there’s no way to perfect the decision of when someone “is ready,” because so much of “readiness” is really in the mind and the limbic system. That ability to act as if ye had faith until faith be given to you may mean more important than the ability to hit the breaking ball.

Errol S.

Roger, there are minor league pitchers in the Giants’ system who, while effective, are throwing at the very low end of the 90s or lower. I just don't see how anyone can break into today's MLB roster without pumping 97. Is there a place for say, Jack Choate, in today's game? Thanks as always.

I’m definitely always skeptical of extremely low velo pitchers being able to succeed in the modern game — it’s why I’ve tended to be very conservative in ranking pitchers like Choate, Dylan Cumming, Nick Sinacola and others. We Giants’ fans have had the pleasure of enjoying one of the great aberrations in the game over the past seven years, but Tyler Rogers isn’t simply proof of concept (yes you can succeed without hitting 98), he is a signal pointing the way. As the ladies sang in Gypsy: you gotta have gimmick!

Every time I watch Choate pitch, I find myself wondering: is his gimmick good enough for the top level. Though his velocity often sits 88-89 (and really tops out at 90), there are enough oddities to his delivery to make that effective so far in the minors: you have the combination of the extremely tall pitcher with an extremely low delivery, and then the sidearm delivery coming with plus-plus extension. That all helps the ball get on hitters much faster than they’re expecting, but once he gets to the majors and guys see it all the time, will it be enough? That’s the real question. It might be if he continues to improve his game (the command can stand some sharpening) and continues to innovate with new pitch shapes.

I am glad to see the Giants take the step recently of moving him to the bullpen. I’ve always been highly wary of him having sustainability in the majors as a starter, but in the pen, you can mix and match him with other “tough looks” in a way that might just make him an effective part of a really good pen. The famous Fox Sports image of the Tampa Bay bullpen from a few years back is never far from my mind when thinking of Choate as a reliever:

Still, you have to believe that the margin for error for something like this is razor thin. And then the other thing about the majors is, you can’t be a one-trick pony and survive for long. Constant innovation and development is how guys stay successful up there — which is probably something we should have appreciated more with Rogers.

I am fascinated by Choate for this very reason, and watch him as closely as I can every chance I get. There’s something here that can just maaaaaybe work out if things click right? I don’t think any of us will be surprised if it doesn’t however — just another case study for us to shrug our shoulders and say: can’t throw in the show these days unless you’re tickling triple digits. That’s not really true, but it’s probably close enough to true that you wouldn’t go broke if you always bet against the low-velo dudes. It’s a real hill for guys to climb these days.

Lyle

I find it odd that, in both Eugene and Richmond, the org has had Bo Davidson hit lead off and Scott Bandura hit fifth (mostly). This seems counterintuitive to me. I see Bandura as more of a future leadoff hitter, and Davidson as (hopefully) a middle-of-the-order hitter. Is this just an attempt to maximize the number of ABs for Davidson? If so, wouldn’t having Bandura lead off and Davidson hitting third accomplish the same result (99% of the time)?

I would say that you’ve likely answered your own question there, Lyle. Putting Davidson at the top is most likely about maximizing ABs — it’s pretty typical for every minor league lineup in every organization to have the best prospects batting at the top of the order for that reason. And I think the numbers support that reasoning. Just anecdotally, I can say that I was talking with someone the other day about how many of the Squirrels’ recent games have ended with either Aeverson Arteaga (the number nine hitter) or Davidson at the plate.

That said, I may take some exception to your characterization of the two hitters. Davidson posted OBP well in excess of .400 at both of his A-ball stops, well in excess of what Bandura did in either stop, even while Bandura was having success. Davidson knows the strike zone, and he’s pretty good about staying within it. Walks are always going to be a big part of his game, I would suspect — and, though he hasn’t done a ton of it, he could certainly turn himself into an effective base stealer with his speed.

I actually think that Bandura’s best path forward is to become a stronger hitter and try to get to more strength to his swing. He is very tall and extremely skinny — that frame can easily add some 15-20 lbs of “good muscle” to it. In the end, I suspect he needs that because he’s a corner outfield guy who probably fits best in left, and the real question about him right now is how much impact is in the bat. He does have a well-rounded game — he’s a good baserunner and a good fielder — but I’m not sure he ever ends up as a leadoff guy. He’s probably going to be better suited (if everything clicks) to being a complementary player down at the bottom of lineups who does enough little things well to help his club win.

Steven

From what you have seen so far, what has been behind Davidson’s slow start with Richmond.

Well, first and foremost, it’s a really hard league. And it’s a particularly hard transition, coming from the NWL where parks are small, you play the same five teams all the time, and the pitching is not generally of an elite-level quality on a consistent basis. In the EL, guys are playing against a wide variety of the best organizations in baseball, often facing their very best talent. There are a lot of big arms in this league, a ton of really talented left-handed pitchers, and very large stadiums. So, it’s just a very difficult adjustment, and can take a while. Just last week, for instance, the Squirrels’ lineups faced three separate starters pumping 97-mph fastballs with knee-breaking sliders — and those guys aren’t the baddest dudes in this league. It’s a really competitive level!

But specifically with Davidson, based on my (admittedly amateur) observations and conversations I’ve had with much more professional observers, the issue that he’s having is adjusting to louder stuff in this league. He’s gotten blown up by velocity a little bit, and I think he’s opening up early in an attempt to be on time with the fastball — and that’s exposing the outer half and putting his body in a position where it’s hard for him to adjust once he IDs pitches.

One interesting thing I noticed about him this week — that I’ve never seen in video I’ve gotten from him before — is that he’s adopted a little “stutter” in the cocking of his hips as he goes into his load, which I suspect might be a cue to keep him back and refrain from opening up so quickly. He’ll start to cock his hips, and then pause, and then go again. You can see that very consistently in his swings last week:

But that has never been a part of his swing in any other video I’ve shot of him prior to last week — here, for instance, he was in spring training this year:

When Davidson has had his best success since coming to Richmond, he’s stayed short to the ball with a compact swing that aims to take balls straight back up the middle (or deep the opposite way, as he did on Sunday). And I think that’s likely to be his best path to adjusting to the arms up here for a while. Stay small, stay short, stay direct. His power is big enough to play. Right now, its probably best to focus on being able to get to velocity while also being able to adjust to off-speed, because guys are sequencing him to death, beating him at both ends of the spectrum.

And with that, we’ll close up the bag for the week. I’ve got a plane to catch. See you at Excite, Sutter Health, or possibly PK ballyards!