Giants Depth Chart: CF
My dissertation advisor used to say that āwriting is a process of learning what you thinkā and this series has definitely been an illustration of that notion. At no point in time did I think that I was going to get to the top of my positions rankings and land on CF. Really, right up until Wednesday I wasnāt thinking of ending with CF and definitely not on Monday. Yet here we are.
And honestly, isnāt this place we all feel we should have arrived? The lionās share of the top prospects in the system have spent most of their time in CF and I was probably just trying to be too clever by half. If Ramos doesnāt stick in CF, Bishop might. If Bishop, doesnāt Canario might. If Canario doesnāt then Matos should. Thereās a lot of built in contingency planning here.
Iāve already talked about why I think Bishop and Canario might shift off the position in the LF and RF Depth Charts as well as why Ramos might ultimately find a different home even if he starts in San Francisco as a CF. Still, no matter what configuration you put them in, thereās no doubting that right now the Willie Mays position is the glamour spot of the organization. Thereās impact, thereās reasonable depth at the top and at lower levels, and thereās star wattage. CF is, indeed, the fitting conclusion to the climb up the depth chart ladder, so letās dive in:
Top Tier
Heliot Ramos, 20 yrs old, .306/.385/.500 338 PA in San Jose;
.242/.321/.421 106 PA in Richmond
Luis Matos, 18 yrs old, .367/.438/.566 290 PA mostly in DSL
Weāve seen two strong prospects at several of these depth charts lately ā Bishop and Pomares in LF, Canario and Davis in RF, Bart and Santana at C ā but nothing quite compares to the tandem of Ramos and Matos, who I have the 3rd and 6th best prospects in the system. Ramos was formerly the #1 guy and has gotten better since then (but so has the system). While Matos is a kid I can imagine jumping up to the #2 spot in the not-too-distant future. Iāll get to the hard-charging Matos in a moment, but first letās focus on Heliot.
When Heliot first captured attention as a 16-year-old in the Under Armour All-America game, he looked like a future power-speed threat (check him out speeding for a triple around the 50 second mark of the above and then stay for the blast out of Wrigley) and that continued through his pro debut in the Arizona League where he stole 10 bases while pounding 6 HRs in 35 games.
But when I first saw him the following spring he was already thickening up into the muscular, powerful, fire-hydrant type build that he has today. His upper body, in particular, screams power and strength. Thatās led most people to think heāll ultimately fit best in a corner, but as I noted previously, even with his speed ticking down heās been a solid defensive CF because his reads and routes have really improved over the last two years. If he needs to move to RF he should fit well there with a strong arm and the power production for a corner. That build can make his swing look a little āmuscle boundā at times, but heās been able to get to his tremendous all-fields power throughout his career.
Like, big, big power! What has defined Ramosā career so far is the efficiency with which he can get to that power. As an 18 year old in the Sally league he found himself in nearly ubiquitous pitchersā counts and frequently looked overmatched. In the 2018 season, Ramos was in either 0-2 or 1-2 counts 149 times ā nearly a third of all his PA with Augusta ā and in those situations he batted just .132 with a woeful OPS of .360. Though people werenāt exactly worried about Ramos after Augusta ā he was still just an 18 year old playing his first full season ā it was clear that his approach needed improving.
Which is exactly what made 2019 such an exciting development year. A lot of good things happened on the farm last year, but perhaps none of them rivaled the steps forward that Ramos took.
Grant was right, it was early. Those numbers didnāt stay there ā but Ramos walk rate in the Cal League did improve significantly, up to 9.5% (a 50% increase from his career rate), while the K rate ultimately stayed where it had been in Augusta. Along with the new found patience, he started seeing more hitters counts and he started punishing pitchers once he got in them.
The ISO rose up to .194 as he did a better job of learning what pitches to attack and what to lay off of. Interestingly, Ramos was particularly impressive once he got pitchers into full counts, where he slugged an amazing 1.077 with 5 of his 13 home runs.
Iāll bet you want to watch Heliot hit a bunch of home runs now, donāt you. GO Ahead!
His work was so successful that Ramos was given a late season promotion to AAā¦.where advanced pitchers kind of abused the teenager a bit. He still showed power (including a mammoth HR on the final day of the season ā the last one above) and he kept his walk rate up at 9%. But the strikeout rate spiked back up to 30%, a trend that continued in his stint in the Arizona Fall League. Again, none of this is worrying for a 19 year old facing much older and more experienced pitching.
But I think itās evident where the next evolution of Ramosā offensive game will need to be. While he did a much better job of identifying what pitches to attack and getting himself into hittersā counts in 2019, when he did get behind he struggled to maintain a 2-strike approach that would help him battle back. In San Jose, he managed just a .600 OPS when he was in 0-2 or 1-2 counts. That trend went the wrong direction in AA against pitchers with multiple ways to put batters away.
Obviously the above is a very small sample but itās indicative of how āover his headā he often looked in that final month. In a series I saw just after his promotion to AA he was frequently in the classic mode of being in front of breaking balls and late on fastballs. He appeared tentative and back on his heels throughout.
Ramos has often showed a strong off-field approach, even when he was being thrown into the deep-end against more advanced pitching. And he has the power to punish pitchers the opposite way, so I donāt doubt that heāll find the 2-strike approach that will allow him to prolong at bats and get to the best part of his potential. When he finds the pitch he can handle, he knows how to do damage.
Given his performance in AA last year I would have assumed he would be ticketed to return there this year, with the potential for a June-ish promotion to AAA if he made another step forward and potentially a cup of coffee in the majors in September. I still think thatās the right calendar for him under normal circumstances. Ramos is likely always going to be a high strikeout batter, and that will affect where weāll see his batting average end up in the majors. He also could well be the type of player who gets punished by Oracle Park ā as weāve seen RH off-field power is the type of profile that the stadium can be roughest on. But he brings the clear ability to finally break the Curse of George Genovese and give the organization its first home-grown All Star OF since Chili Davis.
Luis Matos was the one high $$ signing from the Giants 2018 IFA class who didnāt get to start his career in Arizona ā which apparently he took personally! Matos spent the summer of 2019 showing he was too good for the Dominican Summer League. His numbers in the DSL, and particularly the consistency with which he produced them, were almost comical. He had as many three hit games (8) as he had hitless games (and three of those came in the first four games of the season). In a 55 game schedule he had three different hit streaks of 11 or more games. He ended the year with a 17 game streak that included four games following a promotion to the AZL.
And unlike a lot of teenaged hitters, his 2 hits every day didnāt come as the result of a free-swinging approach. As Baseball America wrote, āhe [stuck] to the organizationās mantra: ādrive the ball or walk.āā He controlled his strike zone, maintaining a near 1 to 1 K:BB ratio, and struck out just 11% of the time. And when he was swinging, he drove the ball. Thirty-four of his 92 hits went for extra bases, good for a .200 ISO. His 1.004 OPS was third in the sprawling DSL, despite being just 17. DSL stats arenāt generally that meaningful (particularly in the middle of the Bell Curve) but low strike out rates combined with high slugging is generally a compelling combination when looking for future success.
When he was finally promoted to the AZL to end the year, he carried his success over to the domestic side, going 7 for 16 with just 1 K in 20 PA.
It was a star making summer for Matos and this spring his name popped up a lot from Giants insiders pointing at kids making an impression in camp. Pat Burrell, Kyle Haines, Jake Fox and others have mentioned how impressive he looked in camp. Heās coming fast when he gets back on the field and I would expect him to be a top 3 guy in the system in the years to come, probably #2 behind Luciano once Bart and Ramos graduate.
One of these two guys is hopefully going to be the player to break this dismal streak.
Major League Depth
Jose Siri, 24 yrs old, .237/.300/.357 517 PA between AA Chattanooga and AAA Louisville
Honestly the top of this category belongs to Steven Duggar who would probably settle in as a 4th OF or place-holder starter if he could stay healthy for a prolonged period at some point. But heās missed significant portions of each of the last three seasons which hasnāt done his offensive development any good. At this point Duggarās produced a 72 wRC+ over his first 433 PA in the majors and itās hard to speed-and-defense your way to value with that kind of line (which is why he was a sub-replacement level player by Fangraphs WAR last year). The major league CF spot is unsettled enough that Duggar should still see playing time if thereās playing time to be had, but right now the bat is looking like a utility profile without a big step forward.
That said, the 25-year-old Siri was an intriguing waiver wire pickup for Farhan Zaidi. A physically gifted specimen, Siri has long played below his tools because of a āswing at everythingā approach at the plate that he has simply never been able to rise above. The former top 10 prospect in the Reds system has plus speed, a great arm, above average power, and can play the field. But a total lack of approach at the plate has always kept those elements from coming together the way that they should.
The Kids
Grant McCray, 19 yrs old, .270/.379/.335 in 220 PA in AZL
PJ Hilson, 19 yrs old, .220/.310/.346 in 145 PA in AZL (repeat season)
Down in the Arizona camp, the Giants two AZL teams each featured a more classic CF burner type with great physical skills. McCray, the Giants 3rd round pick last year, was a multi-star athlete in high school, and is the son of a former big leaguer (though heās more famous for a moment from his minor league career). McCrayās one of the fastest players in the organization and he also impressed scouts some in the AZL with his ability to track breaking balls and some feel for the plate. But the overall game is still extremely raw and has a lot of refinement to come if heās to advance. Though he has plus speed he was caught stealing in 13 of 30 attempts. And though he showed some feel for getting the barrel on the ball, the overall swing probably needs a full overhaul to get it to play. Still the physical tools are there to be a big leaguer if the development team can advance the bat. If you squint the right way you could see a big league starter as a ceiling, and a UT profile is certainly not out of the question. But expect the climb to be slow. As always, thereās a long journey between here and there.
As for Hilson, the journey between here and there doesnāt fit on any map known to man. As Eric Longenhagen wrote about him in Fangraphsā Giants list,
the gap between what Hilson is now and what he might be is perhaps the widest in pro baseball, a yawning chasm that the Giants player development staff will try to close.Ā
Everyone who sees the talented youngster play comes away raving about his physical tools. Literally just standing on a field playing catch he attracts your attention. He has plus speed, a tremendous arm, and big power in the batting cage. But oh, getting those tools to play has been an issue. When he connects he can put some juice into the ball, but that āwhenā comes few and far between a whole lot of whiffing. Hilson shows almost no barrel control and all and is really just letting it fly with a grooved swing path and little of the handsiness you like to see in hitters. The package titillates, but itās pretty hard to come back from striking out almost 40% of the time in the complex leagues (two years in a row). If the Giants successfully develop Hilson it will be a more unexpected journey than any that JRRR Tolkien ever envisioned.
And if you like your speed and defense types without much of a side of hitting, there were several others in the Arizona complex last year who could gobble up ground including Richgelon Juliana (possibly the most gifted defensive OF in the system) and some speedy 2019 draftees like Najee Gaskins and Javeyan Williams (who signed for a miniscule $2000 bonus last summer ā poor kid really has to be hurting at this point). These are likely all org players, but as Juan Perez, Darren Ford and others have proved, speed and an ability to go get āem in CF can get you places with even a modicum of bat ability.
So that is it. Weāve reached the top of the mountain. What say you all? Would you agree with my placement? Or do you have maybe Catcher or SS or one of the corner OF positions as the best in the organization? Let me know what you think in the comments!
On this Day in History
Nobody jumped on the Augusta Greenjackets 2007 lineup which went down quietly in Greenville, 6-2. This feature hasnāt quite caught on with the readers yet!
Weāll give it another go anyway. Guess the team and the year:
Minicozzi, SS
Horwitz, RF
Bowker, CF
Ishikawa, 1b
Martinez-Esteve, LF
Wald, 2b
Klink, 3b
Jennings, C
Espinelli, SP
2008: Matt Downs and Pablo Sandoval each had three hits to help propel San Jose to an 8-2 win over Modesto. For Sandoval, it was the ninth three-hit game in his first 35 games of the season, driving his early-season average up to .416. He had opened the year 14 for 25 and just kept on hitting. The 21-year old had returned for a second season to the Cal League and he was intent on hitting his way out of A ball in a hurry. In 68 games he would post a 1.009 OPS in San Jose, including hitting a career high 12 HRs. Heād have an even shorter stay in AA, where heād hit .337/.364/.549 with 8 more HRs in 44 games and then ascent to the majors. It was a stunning outburst from a player whose career line entering the year was .286/.324/.399. Prior to the 2007 season, young Pablito had just 4 career HRs in four seasons.
2010: Jorge Bucardo threw 7 shutout innings, allowing just two baserunners while striking out 9 batters to lead Augusta to a 3-1 win over Greenville. The 20-year-old SP was early in a streak of ten straight starts without allowing more than 2 runs ā and just 7 earned runs overall. The right-hander was gaining notice as one of the best starting pitching prospects in the system with extreme ground ball tendencies. The Giants werenāt sure how much endurance the rail thin Bucardo would have, but he ended up throwing 150 IP in his first full-season while leading the Sally in opponents batting average (.208) and second in ERA (2.21). But the innings took their toll anyway, as he would end up missing the 2011 season and undergoing Tommy John surgery. Bucardoās offensive support in the game came from 20-year-old Hector Sanchez, who hit one of his five HRs on the season in this game.
This sounds like a pretty cool event and opportunity to talk with a crucial part of the development team. I know Iāll be there! Itās the best we have until these guys get backā¦
