If It's Tueday, That Must Mean We're in Mailbags
The weekly tradition continues!
That’s right, it’s time once again for everybody’s favorite new There R Giants’ feature — me spouting my opinions! It’s Free For All Tuesday Mailbag time, my favorite time of the week! And we have a diverse range of things that you folks would like to hear me spout about today, so let’s get right to it.
Before I dive into this week’s questions, however, I have one left over bit of information from a previous week’s question. I did talk to Wade Meckler this week about his switch hitting exploits, and our sharp There R Giants’ reader is correct. Meckler absolutely did do some switch hitting at Oregon State. Meckler told me that he’s naturally right-handed, but started switch-hitting quite young, mostly through his freshman season at OSU. But he showed more promise from the left side, and after hitting about 50 points higher left handed as a freshman, one day in Fall ball, his coaches asked him to try going left on left in that day’s game. He went 3 for 3 that day and has never stopped hitting from the left side since. That wasn’t the very first time he’d ever faced a same side LHP — in his junior season in high school, a minor injury made it uncomfortable for him to bat right-handed, so he went lefty only that season. Still, his left on left reps had been few and far between in his life, so stepping into the box and ripping three straight hits was a pretty impressive feat!
And with that, let’s check the mailbag (right after, of course, a word from our sponsor):
Who are the upcoming Rule 5 players that might be exposed this year?
Oh boy, is it that time already? I suppose it’s always that time, and honestly, with the trade deadline beginning to raise its hoary head, Rule 5 decision time does become a factor in who is considered a trade chip and who isn’t (the Rays do this every year, kicking the can down the road by moving players they know they won’t protect for someone who won’t need to be protected for a few years, which is why Brett Wisely is playing for the Giants now. It’s also why one-time low-level Giants’ farmhand Jacob Lopez is now in Triple A Durham striking out tons of batters).
Anyway, in one sense, the Giants’ decisions should be a little easier this year. The group of college players in the 2020 draft — which is a major group coming up for Rule 5 eligibility — has already seen Patrick Bailey and Casey Schmitt added to the 40-man, so they’re no longer part of the equation. R.J. Dabovich could be a consideration if he comes back healthy and productive at some point this season. LHP Nick Swiney, who’s been doing a nice job in relief in Sacramento, and infielder Jimmy Glowenke, just promoted to Richmond, are also part of that class.
Moving beyond those college kids, you have the high school and IFA class from 2019, which would include, primarily, Grant McCray and Aeverson Arteaga (though Trevor McDonald, like Dabovich, could put himself into consideration were he healthy). Neither McCray nor Arteaga is having a particularly strong year so far, but as we saw with Matos last season, that doesn’t mean they aren’t players that other clubs would pounce on if given the chance (particularly Arteaga, who gets absolute raves for his defensive play). Another player in this bucket who may end up being the hardest decision of all is Manuel Mercedes. As a starter, he’s a long way from a finished product, but you might be able to imagine a team trying to stash him in a pen for a year and saying “just throw your sinker.” Victor Bericoto, actually part of the 2018 class, is also eligible, though as a far from developed corner bat, it seems a stretch to consider him a serious Rule 5 target.
From the group of players who have already been exposed, Nick Avila (who was selected last winter by the Reds and returned), Chris Wright, and Ben Madison could all be targets for other teams this year. And, maybe the most fascinating case of all will be 2017 3rd rounder Seth Corry, who is coming back from major shoulder surgery. He looks like he’s close to ready to get assigned to a full season affiliate soon, and with his ability to miss bats with mid-90s heat and a big breaker from the left-hand side, if he looks right the second half, he could be a real temptation for somebody.
The Giants’ last two IFA classes have largely not seen players skipped to the ACL. Do you think this is related to the extra year before Rule 5 eligibility that teams get with the January signing date vs July? If I’m not being clear enough, the old July (2020) signing date would have put Gerelmi Maldonado as Rule 5 eligible following 2024 instead of 2025, making a decision more difficult. But the extra Rule 5 year might permit some conservatism in roster assignments. Those extra six months of training in the org that Luciano got before his first season could be equivalent to a DSL starting assignment for Reckley/Arias.
Something of a related question from Rae, and a fascinating idea. Yes, when the owners responded to their pandemic-related losses by pushing the IFA signing date from July 2nd to January 15, it had the unintended consequence of giving players an extra year before they became Rule 5 eligible, since the Rule 5 draft date, held in December each year, is actually the crucial element of that calculation.
So it is possible that Rae is onto something here, but I tend to think that, as much as I’ve heard PD staff complain about the accelerated clock young international teens face, that they would respond to a little extra time by creating a longer development ladder. That seems both counter intuitive and counter productive.
However, there is an entirely different ramification of that change in dates that I think could be playing a part in these decisions — and that is the players’ financial reporting obligations. In the old July 2nd days, the player received their bonus the year before they officially saw game action, and they typically spent that summer working out at the Dominican Academy and playing in the unofficial “Tricky League.” With official signing day now in January of the year that they start their pro careers, where they are assigned that summer probably has some major tax implications.
Now this is speculation on my part — I certainly haven’t had that conversation specifically with any Giants officials (and doubt they’d be that forthcoming if I tried) — but I wouldn’t be surprised if that played a role in these moves. If a team feels like a player won’t need both levels of rookie ball before being ready for a full season affiliate (as I suspect will be the case with Rayner Arias), then the difference in a DSL/ACL assignment might not be enough to cause the player the financial issue. Of course, if they feel he’s ready for a full season assignment right out of the gate (as was the case with San Diego’s Ethan Salas, who recently made his pro debut in the Cal League at 16 years old), then that’s a different story. There aren’t many of those, however!
There was much (warranted) speculation around how the Giants’ farm system took a huge step back in 2022. Is this all just regression to the mean or has there been a significant player dev change made that has prospects back on the right track (like Matos)?
I suppose my basic answer is that when perception is reduced to bite-sized quotes, nuance gets washed away. I poured out many tens of thousands of words last year trying to correct the opinion that 2022 was a major step back, despite there being genuine high profile disappointments, but, of course, not everybody has the time or inclination to devote to my verbosity (though I am very VERY grateful to those of you who do!).
That said, I think the significant difference is really just time. While guys were going through their development in the lower levels and nobody was showing up in Oracle Park, it became easy to grouse about the process. But by the end of last year, as I noted repeatedly, there was a significant chunk of the system’s top prospects reaching the upper minors, and that is why we’ve seen player development start to impact the team in a positive way — and thus, the narrative gets turned around publicly.
So, short answer: no I don’t think there’s anything different in the process, it’s just had better results this year. Let’s all tap the “Development is not linear” sign and nod our heads wisely.
Given some of the comments from Patrick Bailey about Luis Matos specifically, and others tangentially, is Eugene a sustainable location for a non SS club?
...and this week's series move is just plain crazy....wish they had kept Augusta
For those who don’t know this story, The Athletic’s Andy Baggarly recently asked Patrick Bailey (who has been a teammate of Luis Matos at every affiliate level), why he thought Matos has had such a tremendous bounceback this season, and Bailey’s terse response was: “he got out of Eugene.” A lot of Bailey’s frustrations was, I believe, aimed at the six umpires who patrol the NWL, none of whom has as great an understanding of the strike zone as Bailey does himself.
Beyond that, why exactly Eugene has been a problem spot, and whether it makes Eugene unsustainable is a different story. Certainly there are a lot of bad hitting environments in the minor leagues — virtually everywhere in the Florida State League and all of the Midwest League until about June, just to take some notable examples. And, it is absolutely the case that the current facility situation is a complete mess and an unsustainable situation. For much of the season, the team can’t access its own home stadium for afternoon work and preparation. Right now they are wandering on an endless three week road trip — which included a seven-hour drive home followed by an immediate six-hour drive away from home — because the University of Oregon made the Super Regionals.
That said, it’s hard to see the situation getting better any time soon. Yes, the weather is bad in the spring — there’s a reason why this was always a short-season league in the past. But MLB made geograhic rationality a primary part of its minor league shakeup in 2021. For years, east coast teams had complained bitterly about their west coast affiliates — when the Nats were forced to take Fresno for a Triple A team, they just filled the roster with minor league chum and kept their “real” prospects in Double A to have them close by. Because this was an issue to east coast clubs, west coast clubs have ended up paying a price with two small and somewhat subpar A ball leagues. It’s not surprising that West Coast teams that had A ball clubs elsewhere tended to keep them (the Dodgers, A’s, and Padres all kept their Midwest League affiliates). For the Giants, that really wasn’t an option once the decision was made to make the Cal League a Low A level — the same level as their other squad in Augusta, GA. Since the Giants are part owners of the San Jose club, and like having an affiliate a hour or so drive down the highway, that wasn’t really a choice. Whether they would have wanted to stay in Augusta — 3,000 miles away — is anybody’s guess.
For now, I don’t see MLB doing anything about the NWL until they get to their ultimate end game of eliminating another level of affiliate ball (which they absolutely have in their list of things to accomplish down the line). But a new stadium for the Ems only would be a big step in the right direction.
Since Farhan has taken over, have you seen any change in preferences as it pertains to player attributes when it comes to player acquisition from his initial days to now?
I would say Farhan has been extremely consistent in his priorities and values. He likes hitters who make good swing decisions and pitchers who throw strikes. There are other things as well, of course — positional flexibility is a big one — but controlling the zone is factor #1 on Zaidi’s decision tree.
Am I right to think that the pitchers in our farm with the most ace potential are the lefties (Harrison, Wisenhunt and Crawford)? Which of the righties--Black, Roupp, Winn, etc.--are most likely to be starters at the big league level?
I’ll be honest: I think fans throw around “ace potential” way more liberally than they really should. In fact, as dominant as his season’s been, I don’t think you could really find a scout who would throw a #1 or #2 starter grade at Whisenhunt. Crawford has the upper 90s fastball, which puts him in that category, but so much about him is unformed. Harrison is the only one I’d put the “ace potential” label on myself, and depending on how you feel about command issues, I’m sure there are some observers who might feel even that is a little rich (but the strikeouts!).
I suppose that’s a long-winded way of avoiding the question — but you’re right, there are questions that adhere to all of the various right-handed starters, and the Giants’ unique pitching development process of capping nearly everybody at 4 innings isn’t necessarily helping erase those questions (a scout for another team chippily said to me recently, regarding the pitch and innings limits: “they’re developing a whole system of middle relievers!”).
And we’ll see in time whether that’s true or not. Keaton Winn got his big league call up yesterday (CONGRATULATIONS, KEATON!). His powerful fastball/splitter combo has developed him into a big league pitcher. But for now, Manager Gabe Kapler made clear, he’s going to be put in the same bulk innings, long man role that we’ve seen Tristan Beck and Sean Hjelle consigned to previously, and he’ll need to pitch his way out of that box by succeeding with the innings he’s given.
Whether we will see him develop into a steady starter probably has most to do with how well his slider comes along as a third pitch — and I think that’s true of many of the names we think of in this system: Landen Roupp, Mason Black, Hayden Birdsong, even Whisenhunt, have strides to go with a third pitch. I think all three of those right-handers clearly have the makings of big league stuff, but we’re going to need to see a real step forward on that third pitch if they’re going to make it as steady starting pitchers in the majors. Eric Silva has a wide assortment of pitches that he uses, so he might be the one who profiles best as a starter — though, as we’ve seen with Beck, having a lot of pitches isn’t enough to convince the Giants to use you as a starter if several of those individual pitches grade out below average for the majors.
I know it’s not the answer you’re looking for, but it’s entirely possible that the real answer is “none of the above.” We’ll have to wait and see who makes progress and improvements. Certainly, Winn is the guy who is closest to being a big league starter right now — but whether the Giants actually use him that way or not remains to be seen.
You are the Giants FO. You have an opportunity at the trade deadline to deal for what the team would consider to be a significant, difference making player for the playoff push. Which three Giants prospects are you willing to surrender to close the deal? (You may identify the position of said player/ need if it enables you to level set the Giants package).
The entire front office? I’m dizzy with power! First let me say that I’m really terrible at these kinds of internet trade scenarios, so I don’t anticipate getting very close to a real deal here.
Of course, the complication for such a question is trying to find someone who qualifies as both a “significant, difference making player” and a player who might be on the market. I’ll say off the top that I just don’t believe Shohei Ohtani is going anywhere just yet. Beyond that? Just as an example, it’s seemed for much of the spring as if Mitch Keller could end up being the best starting pitcher on the trade market this year, but as the Pirates currently stand in 1st place in the Sprint of the Turtles that is the NL Central, shouldn’t they be thinking about adding pieces, rather than subtracting. A powerful arm for the bullpen, like the Tigers’ Alex Lange, might be helpful, and would certainly be possible, but would he qualify as a difference maker? I don’t really think so. The great Paul Goldschmidt could conceivably be both available and impactful, but would the Giants really be willing to spend assets on him when they’re so pleased with the production they’ve gotten from Human Walk Machine (and fellow Terp!) LaMonte Wade, Jr.? All interesting questions.
But, you’ve asked so I must answer. And to give the answer the full freight of your intent, I’m going to try to find a solution that would require the Giants to pay a painful amount — while I can absolutely see them swinging a deal for Cody Bellinger next month, there’s no way the cost of a player on a pillow contract WITH a player option for $25m should be very high on the trade market (and honestly, if they want a CF, why not just call up Luis Matos?).
The Giants’ lineup hasn’t exactly been Murderers’ Row this year. If you look at Baseball Reference’s great “Wins Above Average by Position” tool, you can see at a glance that the Giants have been relatively unproductive compared to their peers, at Catcher, 3b, SS, LF, RF, and PH. Still, the roster is fairly crowded with solid options on guaranteed deals, and it’s hard to see how you add a player who isn’t certifiably “great” to the mix. The starting rotation, on the other hand, is a very leaky boat right now, and given recent outings, I’m a little concerned that more leaks may be about to spring forth (both Alex Cobb and Anthony DeSclafani have physical concerns it seems to me).
So I’m getting the White Sox on the phone, and, after spending some 20 minutes telling them that “no, I’m not really that interested in Lucas Giolito right now,” I’m going to push them on one of Michael Kopech or Dylan Cease. Now it’s important to say that the Sox don’t have much reason to move either starter, both of whom are under club control at arbitration salaries for each of the next two seasons after 2023. And for that reason, they’ll cost more, which I guess is the point of this mental exercise. Cease has clearly been the better of the two in previous years, finishing second in Cy Young voting and even picking up down ballot MVP votes last year. But both are 27, both are under control through 2025, and both throw hard — and Kopech has actually shown signs of turning things around over the last month or so, so either might do. The Giants probably need another playoff impact arm to be serious about the Fall, and you don’t get those without sacrificing real talent. So, let’s take a deep gulp and see what talent we might be able to part with (even if it hurts).
The top of this deal absolutely has to be a Top 100 type player, and that might take us out of things altogether, because I’m not willing to move Matos or Luciano. But what if — and just hear me out on this — I talked about Casey Schmitt instead (newly installed in the back end of Baseball America’s Top 100)? It’s probably got to be one of those guys to move a deal like this. Schmitt has exploded through the system this year and certainly endeared himself to Giants’ fans everywhere. But I think there are still some long term questions about his profile. Is he really a shortstop longterm? Will he develop the game power for 3b? How the Giants internally answer those questions might have a lot to do with whether they engage in this type of deal or not.
But given the strong play of J.D. Davis at 3b this year, and the gathering strength of players like David Villar, Tyler Fitzgerald, and Marco Luciano coming up fast on the outside, there is a lot of infield inventory that is accruing at the top of the farm system (and in the long run, the best shortstop in this system is Arteaga). I’m not crazy about the idea of moving Schmitt, mind you, but for a guy like Cease or Kopech, I’m not sure how you get a deal done without somebody in the Schmitt, Matos, or Luciano group, going the other way and I think Schmitt would be my choice there. He’s a really good player — and really good players is what it will take to get something like this done.
Behind the top piece, I would say that Randy Rodriguez pretty obviously has a big ol’ circle around his name this trade deadline. He’s throwing great. His name constantly comes up from scouts of other teams. And he’s taking up a spot on the 40-man. Much like Alex Canario two years ago, I frankly would be a little surprised if Randy were still in the org come August. But Schmitt and Rodriguez won’t get it done alone. We probably need another starter who is not too far away from taking some of the departed’s innings. And that probably points us at the aforementioned Winn, who is probably the only close to ready starter in the system right now.
I don’t know — as I say, I’m pretty bad at these internet trade scenarios. I tend to think that wouldn’t be enough for one of those guys and they’d want somebody else pretty good, like Grant McCray or Vaun Brown (or maybe Joey Bart, but I suspect he wasn’t part of the intent of this question). Maybe we could get away with the 4th piece being a Low A flyer like Hayden Birdsong, but that really doesn’t feel like it would be enough for two and half years of a really good young pitcher. It feels like too much and not enough at the same time.
But there you have it, I guess I can be talked into moving Schmitt, Rodriguez, and Winn, and Bart for two and a half years of Kopech — a deal almost certain to make both fanbases cringe and both front offices laugh. How mad did I make you all with that one? (I suspect neither the Giants’ fans nor front office will be too interested in this sort of deal, and will settle in more of a Giolito/Bellinger tier if they make moves at all, and hope that Kyle Harrison is ready to answer the second half bell).
Ok, time for the lightning round!
Any updates on Darien Núñez rehab?
Nuñez had Tommy John surgery right around May 1 last year, which puts him a little less than a month behind Luke Jackson. But Jackson’s recovery has been on the fast side of the TJ scale, getting back into games less than 13 months after surgery and back to the majors less than 14 months later. Generally, 12-14 months is considered a normal recovery time assuming all has gone well. So, it’s certainly possible that we will see Nuñez sometime in the next month or so. As always, look to the rookie league for updates.
There's a number of players in low-A San Jose that are playing well, but are considered old for the level. Do you see anyone that might get promoted in the near future?
Carter Howell has already received a promotion, so that’s probably the answer. Behind him, maybe I could see Thomas Gavello move up? There’s a tricky calculus in terms of roster construction, however, as the rookie level rosters are a little stretched themselves, and it’s not clear that there would be anybody ready to take the place of a player who moved up from San Jose. I would say that the fact that the Giants recently signed a 26-year-old Indy leaguer who is now playing daily in Eugene (Michael Wielansky) tells you that they don’t see many promotion candidates right now in San Jose.
How has Luciano looked defensively this year? It seems the organization has a lot of shortstops (Fitzgerald, Schmitt, Arteaga), so when would the team make the decision to move Luciano off of short and where would he best profile?
You’ve been stumping for Tyler Fitzgerald since at least the offseason—and it’s not hard to see why. I’m curious how you’d see Fitzgerald and Casey Schmitt co-existing next season on the big club. If Fitzgerald really is the superior defensive shortstop and his polished bat from early 2023 isn’t a mirage, doesn’t he have to get a shot at being the starting 6? And if he wins that battle, where would that leave Schmitt? There may not be too many innings available at 3B and 2B with J.D. Davis and Thairo Estrada coming into their own as top-of-the-order bats. I know these things usually “sort themselves out” but I’m curious how you feel the Giants would handle this logjam.
Let me package these together. I’ll be honest: I have never been a huge believer in Luciano as a shortstop. There is just something slightly stiff about his actions at the position in my eyes. He seems to me to play defense with a high center of gravity that gives him a slightly upright look (if you picture Brandon Crawford, for instance, he’s a big guy like Luciano, but he plays shortstop low to the ground). However, Luciano makes the plays that come to him and has a big arm, and Giants’ officials I’ve spoken with always profess faith in him at the six (other clubs’ officials? less so). And perhaps they’re right! I’ve always been a bit skeptical of Schmitt’s chances at shortstop as well, but he’s been mostly fine there (though Outs Above Average isn’t really sold).
So yes, the answer to the question really is the perpetually unsatisfactory: these things will sort themselves out. Dusty Baker once responded to a question about a spring position battle by saying: “I’m not in the ‘giving it away’ business, I’m in the ‘you gotta earn it’ business.” Similarly, at some point, one of these guys is probably going to get the opportunity and seize it in a way that silences all future questions — the way Crawford did back in 2012, for instance (as opposed to the way he didn’t in 2011). Right now, Schmitt looks like he’ll get the first opportunity to be Crawford’s ultimate replacement. But as we saw with Villar and Davis this spring, those opportunities don’t stay fixed in time. If he were to falter or get hurt in 2024, that might open an opportunity for Fitzgerald, or possibly Luciano. And, at some point, someone will grab it and run with it. Long term, Arteaga is probably the answer, because he’s such a gifted defensive player. Until then? It’s Thunderdome, baby!
(Oh, and as for Luciano’s best fit? I think 3b, though putting him in LF and just letting him mash wouldn’t be a terrible idea).
Completely hypothetical question: The Giants have the number one pick in this year's draft; who do they (and yourself) pick - Crews or Skenes?
Crews.
How do we find out who is the starting pitcher for the MiLB clubs? I love that I can watch the Giants minor league affiliates now on mlb.tv but I also have the opportunity to go to games in San Jose, Sac, and Eugene and I admit I’d love to plan my visits (and even mlb.tv watches) around our pitching prospects.
Teams are supposed to enter their probables into the MiLB.com website, allowing you to find them on the scores page. But it seems to me that teams are getting worse and worse about that lately, and just letting TBDs take over like a virus. I always put the days starters at the bottoms of my posts — though that doesn’t help you plan for later. (But if you email me, I’ll always look into it for you and try to get you the correct answer).
Elly Antonio De La Cruz. Holy Smokes. Is he the embodiment of a baseball Terminator or what? The stuff of dreams or nightmares. My question is: Is this what the evaluators were thinking they were seeing when signing a 17 year old Marco Luciano? Is there any hope of a Giants fan dreaming that big?
No. Stop that! Don’t even go there! Elly is a physical freak the likes of which nobody (other than Onil Cruz) can be compared. And if the Reds (or anybody else) believed he’d have turned into this, he probably would have cost them much more than $65,000. But that’s how it goes when you’re projecting physical development for kids 13 and 14 years old.
Here’s a question you might be particularly able to answer: why does Richmond’s centerfield camera always look like it’s enveloped in fog? Is there no CCU in the control room that someone could adjust? Is it fixed, or does someone have to take it out and set it up each day? I’m having flashbacks to my baseball directing days🥴
I know. It’s just awful. They just can’t fix their issue with that camera. It is mounted permanently. For years they’ve had issues with the sun spots created by the setting sun over the rim of the stadium, pointing directly into camera. This year, it appears they’ve tried to fix that issue by just cranking down the iris and making it so dark you can’t see the arcing light. It’s not working!
Alright, that’s enough for this week! The Stats Review will be out soon, complete with the action from yesterday’s rookie league games. I’m headed to a park near me to catch the action and report back tomorrow!
I hope everyone got a chance to see yesterday’s post on my conversation with Carson Whisenhunt. It looks like there was an issue with the delivery, so you might not all have seen it.
Carson Whisenhunt is Moving Fast by Throwing Slow
Photo Credits: K.A. Fulmore | Richmond Flying Squirrels For a minor league pitcher, moving up a level brings plenty of challenges that are apparent to the outside observer: older, more experienced hitters who are capable of taking that pitch just off the outside corner, or with the barrel control to get good wood on the most minute mistake in execution.
Interesting thoughts on who might get moved at the deadline. I csnt see them moving Davis but hes under club control through next year and would be 32 in 2025. Not really the kind of profile this FO has handed out big deals to. I really fascinated by how this infield thing plays out the next couple of years.
Roger, as someone who has happily devoted 100’s of hours reading the 10’s of 1,000’s of your most verbositiest stuff, all around the world, let me say thank you, asante sana, muchos gracías and beyond!