If It's Tuesday It Must Be a Free For All Mailbag!
Hello and welcome to the very first WEEKLY Free For All Mailbag (unless, of course, there aren’t enough questions submitted for next week, in which case, welcome to the bonus Part 2 of our MONTHLY Free For All Mailbag!).
Last week we had questions about the spate of injuries filling up the club’s extended spring training camp, the progress of players lost to the Rule 5 draft, and several philosophical questions about the progress of the farm overall.
Let’s see what kind of range you’re teasing my brain with this week, shall we?
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Let’s see what’s in the mailbag this week.
I’m curious about your perspective on the pitcher heavy 21 and 22 drafts, and the impact on the farm system at the lower end. Much was written at the time about the ability to move pitchers faster and use them as trade chips, but it does seem to have made the position players in rookie and low A less exciting than the past few years. Do you think the Giants overestimated their position player depth? Does their seemingly preternatural ability to “fix” or develop pitchers come into play? Any other thoughts on the strategy?
I think the first place you have to start is with the data — and specifically, what data teams tend to trust and what data they distrust. At this point in time, with the integration of slow-motion cameras like Edgertronic and Hawk Eye that can detail virtually every aspect of a pitch, there is just so much more data available on pitchers that teams really trust and believe in than there is for hitters. R&D departments are putting huge intellectual and financial resources into every measurable aspect of the game, which is leading to high levels of conviction that certain pitch shapes will lead to success at the big league level — whether they’re seeing those pitch shapes in the majors, minors, or amateur ball. They believe they know what the elements of a successful major league pitch is.
The result of that is that pitchers have a natural tendency to get pushed up in the models of nearly all teams, because, though the industry is getting a better feel for the importance of hit data, measurable bat speed and swing decisions, and other elements of hitting, the process by which a batter becomes productive in regular at bats vs the best pitchers in the world still has some large elements of mystery about it. Much of it takes place deep in the brain, where the technology to measure things is not quite on a par with the ability to capture spin rates. There is still something of a “black box” when it comes to identifying hitters — still something magical about the ability to scout hitters.
I was talking with a Scouting Director this spring, and I asked him if these trends caused pitchers to push up on draft boards relentlessly for models-based teams (which is basically everybody at this point to a greater or lesser degree). He agreed, saying that with hitters, if you really like a guy, it’s almost to the point where you have to go to the board and physically take his name plate and move it up the draft board — because the computer models are always going to be exuding some downward pressure on hitters.
I think that’s what Michael Holmes meant last summer when he said the pitching heavy draft of 2022 wasn’t the result of any conscious intention. It was simply the way the board went, but it was the way the board went in part because the Giants’ model probably places more trust in pitching data than in hitting, as is true throughout much of the industry.
I do also think you’re onto something with your penultimate sentence. The Giants certainly do believe that their “pitching infrastructure” (in Farhan Zaidi’s oft-used phrase) is a competitive advantage, and I’m sure that figures into the draft strategy as well: “we believe we can fix this flaw, go ahead and take him,” as opposed to, “we can’t fix that, leave him on the board.”
I will, again, recommend Evan Drellich’s book about the Astros’ cheating scandal, “Winning Fixes Everything,” for a better understanding of the trends that have affected the way teams draft over the last decade. That book covers a lot of what I’ve been saying here in fascinating detail as these trends evolved in the Cardinals’ and Astros’ draft rooms.
One last thing regarding your comment that the position player groups in rookie ball and A ball are less exciting this year. Some of that is no doubt due to the ebbs and flows of the international player side. Each of the last three seasons, the top signing of an international class has reported to San Jose — but no doubt Marco Luciano and Aeverson Arteaga excited you more than Diego Velasquez. That’s fair, but you also have to remember that’s a cyclical kind of thing. Perhaps, if Rayner Arias or Yosneiker Rivas start putting up huge numbers in rookie ball this year, you’ll find it more interesting.
Secondly, as Kyle Haines pointed out to me, the later draft date (which used to be in early June and is now in mid-July) has caused rookie ball to be much thinner than it used to be. Where rookie ball used to be about the year’s draft class (remember Heliot Ramos, Jacob Gonzalez and Seth Corry taking the AZL Giants to the Championship game the summer of their draft year?), now for most of the year it’s just the international kids left in extended who make up the bulk of the roster. Everybody else is pushed on to Low A. It’s naturally going to be a little underwhelming to watch kids like Elian Rayo or Donovan McIntyre return to Rookie ball for a second or third time, rather than getting shiny new prospects.
Kyle Harrison's oft-mentioned problem is missing arm-side to batters. I haven't actually seen much of his outings - does he ever pitch inside to righties? Does he hit a lot of lefties? In short, is the arm-side command problem mostly when righties are batting?
Harrison does certainly pitch inside to righties — especially with his secondaries. He’ll throw the left-handed version of a back-foot slider to right handers, and his change (which I think he should throw more) sometimes has some two-seam action, starting off inside and then bending back over the plate.
He does, also, sometimes throw his fastball in on right-handers, though he more often likes to stay up in the zone and middle-away, given the natural movement of the pitch. Still, it’s not hard to look at right-hander ABs from any given outing and find at least one pitch focused on the inner half, as we have can see from a survey of at bats from his last outing:
I think it’s important to note that when people say “arm-side misses,” it’s actually arm side and up, so misses are often ones that left-handed hitters can get out of the way. However, looking into the stats, it does appear that Harrison has a much greater tendency to hit LHH.
From 2021-22, Harrison hit 11 right-handed hitters over 667 PA, but he hit 12 left-handed hitters in just 250 PA! Whether that’s due primarily to the armside miss (which mostly occurs on his fastball), or to sliders that don’t do much sliding is beyond my abilities to perceive.
Any concerns around Casey Schmitt’s lack of power early in the season? 80% of his hits have been singles, which seems odd.
This is a topic I’ve been discussing quite a bit — not just this year, but in years past as well. Somewhere in the history of the There R Giants’ podcast, I remember saying that the ultimate ceiling for Schmitt will likely be determined by whether he develops into a 20-25 homer guy or a 10-15 homer guy, and, while his proficiency at shortstop brings some nuance to that position, I still feel like that’s a pretty good lens through which to view his progress.
As Giants’ Farm Director Kyle Haines has mentioned to me (and others) on a few occasions, Schmitt’s scouting report going back to college has been that his excellent raw power doesn’t come out much in games. We saw that during his first professional season in San Jose as well, where he posted outstanding contact rates (his 15.7% K rate was top five in the league), along with good fly ball rates and at least anecdotally, plenty of hard contact, and yet the overall results didn’t produce much over the fence power.
The Giants have been working with Schmitt to get more loft into his swing, and that appeared to be paying dividends when he homered 17 times in the High A NWL last summer. But since then, he’s hit just four dingers in 243 PA in the upper minors.
As I mentioned yesterday, his underlying hit data this year is quite strong. He’s producing what Statcast cals “Barrels” at an incredibly high 14%. Though he’s not creating really high end exit velocities (he produced his first EV over 109 mph of the year this weekend), his 90th percentile EV is above average 106.5 (last year, the Giants’ major league 90th percentile EV was about 103.5). His strikeout rate is right at the league average (22%), and he’s hitting balls hard — contact + hard contact is basically the Mecca of hitting instruction these days, the créme de la créme.
While Schmitt certainly isn’t a Launch Angle zealot (his average LA this year is a relatively low 9°) the barrel rate tells you that he’s getting balls into the air enough to succeed. At some point that should start turning into home runs, but that point hasn’t come just yet. I don’t know that I’d say I’m worried about it, but it’s something worth keeping an eye on. The Giants want power from every spot in the lineup, and ultimately this aspect of his game will be crucial to securing a sustainable starting position.
Wow is Randy Rodriguez struggling again. Is he entering into the DFA danger zone given the injury situation on the big league club? Having to put international guys on the 40-man so early does them such a disservice.
There may be an element of bad timing here. When Michael submitted this question a week ago, Rodriguez had appeared in three games, allowing five runs in 3.1 IP thanks to a whopping six walks and a dinger.
Since then, things have taken a positive turn. In the series vs. Erie, Rodriguez appeared twice, allowed just one run over 4.2 IP, struck out six and walked nobody. While it’s true that he managed to lose two different leads in the Sunday afternoon loss, that’s still a lot more like the Randy we saw in San Jose.
I caught his three innings on Wednesday, and he certainly didn’t look like anything was bothering him. He had the same whippy arm action and outstanding stuff on his pitches that I saw in 2021. So, perhaps it’s best to assume that he’s just had a run of rough outings and he’s getting into his groove now.
The 40-man question, however, is definitely appropriate. We just saw the Giants remove a pretty useful left-hander from the 40-man (and the org) in Sam Long. Before that, Austin Wynns went straight from the Giants’ active roster onto the Dodgers. The front office is not going to stop tweaking the major league roster in their attempts to improve the quality of a team that they have built to compete. And that means that players who are on the fringe of the 40-man are going to be in an uncomfortable position — especially if they aren’t performing. We saw last year how quickly Kervin Castro went from “part of the future” to DFA when the Triple A performance wasn’t there.
And, yes, it is inherently unfair that international players are considered to be in the same category as US high school draftees when it comes to the pace of their development. The pressure that is placed upon IFA players to push their progress to keep up with their clock, is one reason why there are relatively few international pitchers who survive as starters. Once on the 40-man, there is a very natural instinct by teams to move them to the pen, where they can move fast before the options run out.
What are your thoughts on where Brett Auerbach and Simon Whiteman are in their development? I sort of pair them in my mind as underdog players each with their own interesting approach to contributing on the field.
(If you get a chance, it would be great if you got a chance to catch up with them and hear about how they think they're doing!)
I would certainly say that ‘underdog’ is a fair assessment for an undrafted free agent and a senior sign taken out of the Ivy League. Both guys are also somewhat undersized and use every advantage they kind find to get the last bits of talent out of themselves. Auerbach has proven himself an invaluable part of the Richmond roster thanks to his defensive versatility that allows him to be plugged in nearly everywhere in the lineup, while Whiteman brings top of the line speed, tremendous smarts, and pretty solid defensive versatility himself.
Two years ago, I talked with Whiteman about his progress, and one thing he said that stuck with me was that he understood that for older players like himself, there isn’t a lot of leeway. You move up or you move out. “It’s go time,” was the way he put it. I thought about that interview often last year when he was moved in the absolute wrong direction for a 25-year-old, back down to High A. It was a long, frustrating year for Whiteman, who battled health issues. But this year, I think other players’ health issues have provided him with the opportunity to come back to Richmond and get regular playing time — and he’s absolutely seized that opportunity with a vengeance. He’s clearly focusing on getting on base this year, where his speed can be utilized, and he’s walking at a rate he hasn’t seen since he was at High A to start the 2021 season. That’s led to a .404 OBP in the early going. He’s also hitting well (.282), showing some power (2 HR!) and once again playing all over the field. It’s been a really nice comeback showing after a difficult year, and I couldn’t be happier to see it!
As for Auerbach, he’s done an excellent job of cutting down his strikeout rate so far this year. The 33% K rate he put up last year was just too high, as he well knew. This year, that’s been cut almost in half, down to 18.5%, albeit in a small sample size. So far, that improved approach hasn’t resulted in positive numbers, though, as he’s hitting just .200, thanks to a woefully low .231 BABIP — which could be a sign that he’s been unlucky and waiting for positive regression, or could be a sign that he’s just not hitting the ball that well right now.
Auerbach has, I think, the clearer path to a career because of his ability to play catcher, along with solid raw power. Whiteman will need to make this new OBP machine approach stick to get chances at higher levels in an atmosphere that doesn’t tend to appreciate low-power players as much as previous generations did (where are the Kelbys of yesteryear?). But perhaps the new rules, which are bringing tactical speed back into the game, will tilt the balance there and speed and defense oriented players like Whiteman will start appearing more broadly in the game. I’d certainly applaud that, as I think that loss of variety in the major league game has been one of the biggest issues with its modern incarnation. I like to see lots of different type athletes and teams that win in a variety of ways.
I totally agree with you, Sam. I root like crazy for both of these guys!
Jimmy Glowenke......what level is he in by September based in current play. Can he get to AAA?
Glowenke has gotten off to a tremendous start to the season — and really is looking much more like the all around hitter he was in college, rather than the “dingers or bust” hitter he’s too often been in his first couple of pro seasons. In very limited sample size, he’s doubled his walk rate from last year and slashed his too-high K rate from over 30% way down to 14%, and he’s hitting .440!
However, all of that has come in just 36 plate appearances, which brings a couple notes of caution. One is that hot stretches don’t always last for hitters. The other is that I notice he hasn’t been in the lineup now for several games (he last played on Wednesday the 19th). Given that he was taken off the field for a considerable amount of 2022 with injury, that does bring a furrow to my brow.
Anyway, to your question: Triple A is a little rich for my blood — though, of course, the possibility is certainly there if he continues to hit the way he has so far. I remember Brandon Belt hitting his way from High A to Triple A once upon a time. The far greater likelihood, however, is that he hits his way into the Richmond lineup at some point and spends the rest of the summer there. That should be a good test for his hitting skills.
Thanks for bringing up the "4 IP and Out" pattern. Others are questioning it too.
Analytics say 3rd time through line-up is worst so this avoids that?
But it is quite a mental shift for a pitching staff. [And fan base]. And I am really a clubhouse chemistry guy that says, players are not Robots. There is a song in there.
Four inning starts has been the most ubiquitous part of most of the affiliates’ box scores so far this year — and much of the time, it’s been a four inning start combined with a four inning piggyback relief appearance. Call it the 4x4 stack!
Some of this relates to the question above — the Giants have drafted a huge amount of arms the last couple of years, and need to find creative ways to get them all work. But without a doubt, some of it is also following organizational philosophy (both at the major and minor league levels).
I attended a SABR Analytics conference discussion a couple of years ago that took on the “Third Time Through Penalty” in a way that has stuck in my mind ever since. Using math that was admittedly a little rough for my poor English major’s mind to follow, the presenter noted that the “Third Time Through Penalty” is actually a bit of a misnomer. Yes, it’s true that players post a much higher OPS against starters in the third time through the lineup, but, at least according to this presentation, much of that difference can be accounted for by looking at who is batting in the third time through. For nearly all starters (the exception being openers or the rare blow up), they face an entire lineup in the first time through the order, and the vast majority of time this is still true in the second time through the order as well (or it was two years ago — things are moving fast!). But the third time through the order, the average of hitters faced drops precipitously, down to just about 3.5 hitters. That means that rather than facing the 1-9 hitters, a pitcher is facing just the 1-3 or 1-4 (or 1-2). In other words, most of the difference in the OPS in the third time through is accounted for by the fact that pitchers are facing only the best hitters in the lineup and none of the worst.
Instead, this presentation had a more nuanced view. Pitchers are generally at their best right at the start. Somewhere around the 8th batter of the game, their performance begins to decline (though whether from fatigue or simply the batters’ ability to adjust at a certain point is unknown). That decline continues on a steady basis through approximately the 27th batter of the game — or right at the third time through the order — at which point it levels out and stabilizes (almost certainly a result of selection bias — since only pitchers who are performing well are allowed to continue at that point in the game, performance appears to improve statistically as all of the faltering pitchers get removed from the data pool).
All of which brings us back to your point — does asking pitchers to perform in shorter and shorter amounts avoid this issue? Certainly, that has been the direction the industry has gone, and both data and common sense show the wisdom of it. If performing in the pressure cooker of major league baseball can ever be called “easy,” then it is certainly “easier” to ask a pitcher to get nine or twelve outs than it is to get 24 or 27. Constantly bringing in fresh arms avoids the problems of fatigue and familiarity, and gives hitters one tough look after another to try to adjust to.
You bring up the objection of player routines and personal objectives. I could also raise the objection of aesthetics — it’s just more interesting to watch Madison Bumgarner attempt to throw a complete game shutout in the playoffs when you absolutely know he must be gassed, than it is to follow a parade of somewhat anonymous short relievers to the mound. But you can’t object based on performance, because the numbers are driving these trends.
I do think that we Giants’ fans have seen some ripple effects from asking starters to go fewer innings in the bullpen problems the team has had over the last year. But the front office’s adjustment to that has been to have more long relievers on hand and rely less on a quantity of short relievers. And that, I think, is why we’re seeing so many four inning stints in the minors as the club tries to train guys to be bulk innings pitchers — though at least with guys like Long and Sean Hjelle, the results at the highest level of that experiment haven’t been all that encouraging.
Hey, but while we’re talking starting pitchers, let’s take this moment to enjoy Tristan Beck (the only minor leaguer who’s thrown a 5 inning start this year) getting ready for his major league debut last week — as sent in by loyal reader Matthew Ong. Thanks Matthew!
With Beck and Long's respective departures, there's got to be an opportunity to move a couple of arms up - maybe Seymour and Teng?
I discussed this in Monday’s post. I really do think that Kai-Wei Teng is putting himself in pretty good position for a callup — especially, as you mention, with the loss of Long and (probably temporary loss of) Beck. Teng led the Eastern League in strikeouts last season with 169, and set a franchise record while he was doing it. That might have been enough for a promotion out of spring camp had he not also set franchise records in most walks, most hit batsman, and most runs allowed.
The Giants’ marching orders to Teng seem obvious: throw more strikes. He’s always going to miss bats. He needs to miss the zone less often. So far, in three starts, the results have been positive. Teng has whiffed 25 of the 46 batters he’s faced this season — that’s a 54% rate! That puts him in a league with some of the fastest moving power armed relievers we’ve seen move up the last couple of years — guys like R.J. Dabovich and Cole Waites and Jose Marte. It’s the kind of dominance we saw from Harrison in Eugene last year, forcing his early promotion to Richmond.
And even better, it’s come with relatively few free passes attached. The reason Teng allowed so many runs last year is that there were virtually always base runners on when he gave up a hit. With just four walks (most of which came in just one inning) and two hit batsman, Teng’s been able to suppress runs, throwing shutouts in two of his three starts (naturally, both lasted four innings). That’s the kind of performance that can get a guy a boost!
As for Seymour — or any of the other Richmond starters — I’d say the results aren’t there yet. Most of the starters (both starting starters and tandem ones) have been more “solid” than exceptional so far, and most of the guys still seem to be searching for their rhythm and their command. Teng’s the only one who strikes me as being close to ready to take on the next challenge.
Reminds me a of a question I had been meaning to ask - do you know the difference between the 60-Day IL and Injured - Full Season designations? Beyond just ruling out a player getting back into games for that season
I have an answer for Rae, but I should note that I literally had to ask someone who works in a major league front office to get this information. We’re talking serious administrative arcana here!
As you know, part of MLB’s restructuring of the minor leagues involved limiting all teams to a maximum of 180 players on their domestic reserve roster. Now I have serious objections to this personally — it’s a cheap-assed rule that is meant to force the teams that want to spend money down to the level of those that don’t (or, put another way, it’s a way for owners to restrict the people they hire to build them winning baseball clubs) — still, it’s the rule that stands, and next year (as a result of the new minor league CBA) that number will drop to 165. Yikes!
Anyway, back to our arcana. Long term injuries are one way of getting around the 180 maximum. Players who are placed on the 60-day IL are not counted against that maximum. Great! So let’s pull all of our long-term rehabbing players on the 60-day and reduce the strain on the rosters, right? Well, not so easy, because MLB also places a limit on how many players can be on the 60-day at one time. Last year, that number was 15 (though I’m not certain if that includes both the major league 60-day and the various minor league 60-days, or if those two are separate entities). Therefore, a new category has emerged — IL: Full Season. This is for players who teams know are out for the year. They can be placed on the Full Season list and not count against either the 180 domestic reserve OR the 60-day IL cap.
Probably more than you wanted to know about the administrative side of minor league player development, I’m guessing!
What for you is the biggest question facing the Giants’ farm system at this point?
This question really made me think! I thought and thought till my puzzler was sore! And having earned nothing but a sore puzzler, I guess what I’ve come up with is this: is there a plus hitter in the organization? This is a slight variation on the question: is there a star, which I almost said, but I didn’t want to get myself tangled in the question of whether Harrison is a future ace.
Instead, what I really find myself wondering is, do we have any bats that are, say, in that 130 or better wRC+ range? There are players who profile as starters, or at least as contributing major league players whether or not the bats turn into best case outcomes — Schmitt, Aeverson Arteaga, Grant McCray, Luis Matos, and Patrick Bailey all probably belong in this category. They can help teams win. They can start for good teams, even if the bats end up in more of an “average” bucket than an exceptional one.
But at some point, the Giants are going to have to develop a dangerous hitter. A guy who can play anywhere in the lineup and draw the attention of the opposing team because he’s dangerous in the box. That’s really the question about this farm system right now for me. Setting aside someone like Rayner Arias, who is simply too young and inexperienced for me to be able to say anything intelligent about him, the question seems to focus squarely on two players right now: Luciano and Vaun Brown. These are probably the two contenders for “dangerous in the box.” I’d like to see more! But two is what we have. And because neither has been on the field much for the last many many months, it’s become really hard to evaluate their progress.
This club needs a healthy dose of Luciano and Brown on the Richmond roster more than any other single wish right now, in my mind. And they need it soon!
And, lastly, a follow-up:
I re-read Baggs great 2021 piece about Luis Matos, and found myself wondering if he's still playing the drums?
He does! Though the drum machine he bought and practiced on to help keep his sanity during the crazy summer of 2020 (when he and many others were stuck without outside contact in a Scottsdale hotel for many months) is back home in Venezuela, rather than in Richmond with him. He still enjoys getting into the rhythm of the beat now and again, though, he assured me.
That’s it for the Mailbag this week. I’ll send out a request for new questions in the next day or so — but if you want to get a jump on things, you can put questions in the comments section below.
Look for the Stats Review coming later today and a new podcast for tomorrow. As I mentioned yesterday, I hope you’ll get a post at the regular time tomorrow morning, but I do have a slight complication that might cause me to go dark. If I’m not here tomorrow, have no fear, things will resume as normal on Thursday. Have a great week everybody!
Great stuff Roger! Your responses and explanations in the mailbag post is a great education for a MiLB novice like myself. Thanks🙂❤️⚾️
A belated thanks for the thoughtful response. The data quality disparity makes perfect sense.