Photo: Ross D. Franklin, Associated Press
Back when I started this series of trade ideas, things were clearer, they were simpler. The Giants limped home from a brutal 10-game roadtrip with an 8-16 record. They were obvious sellers with some obvious pieces to put on the market. But in the intervening period, we’ve seen a 7-game win streak, followed by mini-losing and mini-winning streaks leaving the team listing just below .500 and close enough to the final playoff spot to be able to see the action.
We’ve also seen one team — the San Diego Padres — try to heat up the trade deadline by themselves and a sudden proliferation of rumors surrounding some big names. What’s all this add up to? A muddle!
Farhan Zaidi has a history of mixing buying and selling at the same time and with the Giants hanging around in the far periphery of the expanded playoffs (and really, who isn’t?) that may well be the direction the Giants try to go. But with so few teams really out of it (Pittsburgh, Boston, Texas) and with only about 2/3 of the teams signing up to receive data from the Alternate Sites, as well as other issues with getting scouting information out of those sites, it’s far from clear what the market is likely to be for buying OR selling.
It’ll be a tricky line for the Giants to tread if they attempt to help position themselves in 2021 and beyond while leaving enough assets to compete in 2020 — particularly if they deal from a rotation which is currently reeling from injuries. Still this is a path the Giants might tread, looking to supplement the current roster (right-handed relief and left-handed bats being the most obvious needs) with players who are controllable past this year. So let’s end things with a lightning round. We’ll revisit the players we’ve touched on already to see if anything’s changed and take a turn around the roster for other pieces that might be moved or needs that they’ll look to acquire.
For previous editions of Let’s Make a Deal:
Starting Pitchers: Kevin Gausman, Johnny Cueto, Trevor Cahill, Tyler Anderson:
Kevin Gausman continues to be one of the two most likely Giants to be dealt, though Trevor Cahill’s hip injury could complicate the issue slightly.
With both Drew Smyly and Jeff Samardzija trying to ramp up quickly to get ready to return (with one of them possibly taking Cahill’s next turn), losing Gausman would really leave the team in a scramble to cover innings, definitely putting them at a disadvantage to compete down the stretch.
But with the pitching market heating up — the Rays, Yankees, and Braves are in particular need of help, and the Padres are looking for a starter as well — it seems the Giants won’t be able to ignore potential returns. The Giants will hock their starters in what’s looking like a pretty strong market with Cleveland’s Mike Clevinger now appearing a real possibility to move. Texas’ perennially under-appreciated Lance Lynn will also likely be on the move along with teammate Mike Minor. And we might even see Trevor Bauer on the move for the second year in a row.
So there’s a lot of talent out there to compete with. Still Gausman should move. I predicted the A’s before and I still like that fit. The Braves have already made one small move — picking up Tommy Milone who immediately surrendered 7 runs in 1+ inning of work in his debut — and they’re a definite possibility for Gausman as well. Atlanta has quite a few post-prospect type pitchers who have not yet shown themselves capable of making the leap to the majors. They might be willing to move on from someone in this group, including 2017 first round pick Kyle Wright. Wright’s the type of gamble that makes sense for the Giants — a talented arm with a lot of controllable years ahead of him. But he’s also been extraordinarily bad in his first three chances at the big leagues. The Yankees could have a similar player to offer in swing man Mike King, who offers low-ceiling stability for several years to come.
Tampa’s staff has been beset by injuries and Gausman’s low-cost appeal could work there as well. Tampa has the game’s best system and they also have something of a 40-man crunch. One guy on the bubble of their roster who could fit the Giants’ needs is left-handed DH Ji-Man Choi who had an excellent 2019 with Tampa. They also have some fringe prospects who might not get protected from the Rule 5 draft this winter like A-ball starting pitchers Drew Strotman and Tommy Romero.
I’ll still maintain that the numbers won’t work for a Cueto deal, though deadlines have a way of pushing matters to the deciding-point. If he does move, the Yankees still make the most sense in matching up dollars, but my guess is he stays a Giant for the year.
Drew Smyly and Trevor Cahill are both guys who would have been potential trade pieces but the health status of both makes that near impossible. Tyler Anderson is another arm who could intrigue some contenders, but as the Giants control him past 2020 the return would need to be significant.
Bullpen Guys: Tony Watson and a cast of thousands.
Watson seems even more certain to move than Gausman. He has a long track record and he’s been quite good this year. He’s a short-term rental and the Giants currently have more surplus in LH relievers than any other profile on the club. With Caleb Baragar having a strong rookie campaign and Andrew Suarez and Sam Selman both looking good lately, this one really is a no brainer. I still think the Cubs make sense here, and I still think that Jason Kipnis is an interesting left-handed bat for the Giants’ roster — that would be an expiring contract for an expiring contract which would be a very interesting move. Maybe the Cubs can find an extra player lying around somewhere though.
The Padres could also use more help in the bullpen (they’ve already picked up Trevor Rosenthal and gotten Drew Pomeranz back from the IL) and they are clearly all in. Having dealt for two veteran Catchers this weekend they now have quite a glut at the position. Francisco Mejia was never considered a particularly good Catcher and even before leaving Cleveland they were looking at other positions he could play. Perhaps relieving him of the position entirely would free him up to focus on what was once considered a plus-hit tool. He’d make an interesting reclamation project for the Giants, though hitting just .079 on the season, he might not help them much this year.
Though Watson is the most likely to move, several of the Giants other lefties could well raise interest as left-handed relievers are always a desired asset. Both Suarez and Baragar have shown themselves capable of getting right-handed hitters out which could make them particularly valuable.
A bigger gambit might be moving Sam Coonrod and his suddenly explosive 100 mph fastball. Velocity definitely plays in post-season series where you face the same competition over and over again so I would think true contenders would be interested in Sam. That said, the Giants bullpen needs a guy who throws 100, too, and they could need that for many years in the future. In the end it’s more likely the Giants try to acquire a RH reliever than ship one out.
Lineup: Mike Yazstrzemski, Wilmer Flores, Donovan Solano, Alex Dickerson, The Brandons, Steven Duggar
The suddenly potent lineup gives Zaidi and Harris a lot of options — do they want to strike with big moves or continue to make small ones around the periphery. If the latter, then there might be a market for the 32-year-old high-average Solano. Teams needing a little more length from the right-hand side might be willing to offer up something for Donnie Barrels. Cleveland and, somewhat bizarrely, Minnesota have both been offensively challenged this year, and while Solano isn’t going to carry a lineup, he might provide a tough out to help lengthen one. He’s controllable beyond this year but the low ceiling (he doesn’t offer too much besides average) would make the return pretty slight.
Though he hasn’t had much of a 2020, Alex Dickerson is another small pickup that could improve a team. I noted the other day that the Padres were running Jurickson Profar and his .200 batting average to LF every day. They helped mitigate that with the pickup of Mitch Moreland and are trying to really fix it with a big-fish acquisition of Texas’ Joey Gallo. But if they can’t quite swing that haul, Dickerson would help their potent lineup. Of course, as with relievers, the Giants are seeking more left-handed thump for the lineup, not less. Unfortunately, Ty France who I suggested last week would be a perfect pickup for the Giants, just headed out of town to Seattle in the big 7-player trade completed last night.
The big bats that the Giants have to dangle are Mike Yastrzemski and Wilmer Flores, who have been the two most potent factors in their lineup all year. Both are controlled for at least 2021 (much longer in Yaz’ case) and without either it’s hard to see how competitive the Giants could be in September. But they can really hit. And neither is expensive. That might move some team to make an offer the Giants can’t refuse. This would be a true “White Flag” move intended to set the team up for the future with more than just marginal talent.
The Brandons are both coming on strong as 2020 rolls along. Belt has been torrid lately and is now posting a .990 OPS and an eye-popping 170 OPS+. While Crawford is playing the most inspired defense we’ve seen out of him in a few years to go along with a perfectly respectable 107 OPS+. If Farhan Zaidi really wanted to recreate the core of the team, now might be the chance to strike. But both have no-trade clauses and are owed significant money next year so they still fall under the Cueto Clause stated above (“Money’s not moving.”). You can see Belt being a huge force in Yankee Stadium. But in the end, I won’t believe it until I see it.
My guess: Solano maaaaybe finds a taker. Everyone else stays.
Alternate Camp: Chris Shaw, Melvin Adon, Alex Canario, Camilo Doval, Hunter Bishop, Will Wilson
Here’s where things get really weird and wild. The Giants finally added Chris Shaw and Melvin Adon to their 60-player pool this weekend. Did they do so to make it easier to trade the pair or because right-handed relievers and left-handed thumpers is what the major league roster really needs.
The question of whether the Giants want to be a buyer or a seller (or both!) really affects this group. A small sort of deal (say Watson for Kipnis) can be turned into a larger sort of deal with each team offering up a prospect. The Giants seemingly have never missed an opportunity to broadcast a certain disdain for Shaw’s game since the new regime showed up. He’d seem to need a change of scenery at this point and maybe being a throw-in would help his future, but it feels like his market is at its nadir by now.
On the other hand, prime prospects like Canario could be used if the Giants want to wade into the deep waters of say a Clevinger or Gallo trade. That would represent the kind of player the Giants could build around (though my thoughts on Clevinger’s selfishness and lack of responsibility to teammates stand). But with Tampa and San Diego in the hunt and motivated it wouldn’t seem like the Giants could really run with the big dogs in these kinds of deals.
My guess? How about sending Chris Shaw back home to Boston in return for the expiring contract of Jackie Bradley, Jr.?
San Diego is cranking up the freneticism of the deadline, so we’ll see if my long-predicted quite deadline will be shattered or no. And what path will the Giants seek to tread as they try to compete both now and in the future.
Just a few more hours to find out! I’ll wrap up the comings and goings with a short post tomorrow.
This Date in History
2008: The AZL Giants clinched the league championship with a 4-2 victory over the AZL Angels. The Giants didn’t get much help from the two future big leaguers in the lineup, as Buster Posey and Ehire Adrianza went a collective 0 for 6. But starter Javier Hernandez didn’t need much support as he went 8 strong, allowing just an unearned run. Hernandez would have just one more year of pro ball in his future as he was released following a summer in Salem-Keizer. In all the champion Giants did have eight future major leaguers come through the squad, including future San Francisco post-season stars Brandon Crawford and Conor Gillaspie. The organization would celebrate two championships (AZL and Augusta) and five championship series participants (DSL, Salem-Keizer, and San Jose) in the 2008 season.
2009: The DSL Giants clinched the league championship with a tight 2-1 victory over the DSL Twins1, sweeping the series 3-0. Lorenzo Mendoza went the distance with a complete game victory, allowing just one unearned run on four hits and no walks. Mendoza lived by the BABIP as he struck out just one batter. Though Mendoza would never rise above short-season ball, two of his staff mates would have brief tastes of the big leagues — neither with the Giants. Kendry Flores pitched in 8 games with the Marlins in 2015-16 after going to Miami in the Casey McGehee trade (along with Reds SP Luis Castillo). Ariel Hernandez, the game 1 starter, would go on a long odyssey that included five years of rookie ball with the Giants, a year out of baseball recovering from injury and a stint in Indy ball before getting resurrected in the Reds’ system. He’d appear in 19 games with Cincinnati in 2019 and is currently in the Brewers organization.
2013: The AZL Giants moved into the Championship Game with a 5-1 victory over the Padres in the semi-finals. Luis Ysla struck out 9 over 6 innings, including getting Franmil Reyes three times. The 21-year-old Ysla was in his first year of pro ball — one of many older signings the Giants had success with in the international market during the decade. He led the Giants staff with a 2.65 ERA in 51 innings. Ysla was sent to the Red Sox for Alejandro De Aza late in the 2015 season, and has since been in the Dodgers and Orioles organizations. The following night the AZL team would win the championship with a 4-0 victory over the Dodgers. Christian Arroyo and Ryder Jones teamed up for 4 hits and Keury Mella, who would also be traded in 2015, threw five shutout innings.
2015: The DSL Giants clinched their third league championship with a 6-5 victory over the Rangers1. That gave the Giants a three game sweep in the best of 5 format, with the Giants outscoring the Rangers 24-10 in the series. Melvin Adon and Raffi Vizcaino combined to go all 9 innings, allowing 4 earned runs and striking out 8. Sandro Fabian hit his second home run of the series and his third of the post-season. Catcher Andres Angulo provided the ultimate game-winning run with a homer of his own in the 8th inning. Adon and Vizcaino are the only players from this club who have reached the upper minors as of yet.