Second Half Storylines

There's Still So Much to Play For

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After a quick refresh, it's time for that final push. As the heat becomes oppressive, the soreness sets in bone deep, and the brain gets so fatigued from the constant focus that it wants to shut down and get a good Rip van Winkel in, players have to find a way to actually elevate their games down the stretch and make their best argument to the org that a promotion to the next challenge should lay in their future.

It ain’t easy!

But it can make a huge difference. A year ago on this date, David Villar had an .805 OPS in Richmond. He had struck out 27% of the time for the season and was hitting .254. Over the season’s final two months, he hit .304/.414/.571, knocked his strikeout rate down to 23%, and lifted his walk rate from 9 to 12%. Those improvements over his final 45 games put him on a trajectory that would get him into the major leagues less than a year later. Prior to that final push, he was likely on a path to return to Richmond for a second year.

A year ago at this time, Sean Roby was hitting .197 with a .677 OPS in Eugene. He was definitely ticketed for a return to Eugene at that point. But down the stretch he hit .281/.342/.544 with 13 HRs, punching his ticket to the upper minors, where he’s been an impactful, though uneven player.

In other words, what happens from here on out matters. It matters a lot! These players’ seasons aren’t written in ink yet. So let’s spend today looking at some second half storylines and check in on some players who still have a lot to gain from a strong eight weeks — as, by implication, does the overall health of the Giants’ farm system.

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The Good Guys: Casey Schmitt/Grant McCray/Vaun Brown

Well that’s weird! Why would I start a story on players who need a big second half with guys who already had a big first half?

Because those rough final months can take a lot of the shine off of a breakout year. It’s not just the rough first half frowns that can be turned upside down with a strong stretch run — outstanding first halves can be undermined by a long, slow slide. Look no further than Marco Luciano’s time with Eugene last year, where his development struggles lowered his overall OPS by 100 points — and possibly caused some of my readers out there to lower him in your mental registers below Luis Matos (who stayed in San Jose and had a big concluding run).

We’ve seen a little of this backsliding already with Casey Schmitt, who has hit just .185 in July — though with solid power and walk rate. Still, the slight slump has lowered his season OPS 40 points down to .827. Seasons have ebbs and flows. Schmitt was one of the few players in the Eugene lineup who raked at the start of the season, rather than digging himself into an early hole that he had to climb out of. Putting a slide in the middle of the year gives him more of a cushion to keep those overall numbers solid — but we don’t want that July slump to turn into an August slide! Grant McCray, who is hitting .204 with a .781 OPS in July has a mini-version of the same story. He’s put himself high on the prospect map with the Giants so far this year. Keep it up for another two months, and McCray begins to enter serious prospect status. The same is true of Vaun Brown, who hasn’t had any nature of slump, but who could push for another promotion that would get him closer to an appropriate level for his advanced age.

We tend to focus on the guys who need a big second half to rescue their years in this sort of conversation, but the guys who can lift their profile by continuing to succeed have as much to gain as anyone.

Ryan Reckley and the Rookie Ball Kids

When the Giants shelled out $4 million for Ryan Reckley, Juan Perez, and Dennys Riera this winter, Senior Director of International Scouting, Joe Salermo, compared this class to the 2018 class of Luciano, Jairo Pomares, and Matos. That 2018 trio hit the ground running with an epic performance: Luciano hit 10 HRs and had an OPS over 1.000 in the ACL. Pomares hit .368 with a .400 OBP in the same league. And Matos, left down in the Dominican, whacked his way to the US with an epic 1.000 OPS season in the DSL.

With the profligate example of the 2018 class to go on, Giants fans knew precisely where to calibrate the bar for this new superstar class. Friends, that ain’t happening!

It was already something of a disappointment to see Reckley and Perez start their careers in the DSL. This wasn’t entirely unprecedented — Gustavo Cabrera also started his career at the lowest level, but I believe every other million dollar international signing in the Giants history has skipped straight to the States. Even worse, Reckley and Riera have struggled with minor injuries that have kept them off the field, and neither has performed particularly well when on it. Perez, who was considered a defense-first catcher has lived up to that billing, with a strong frame and strong arm behind the plate, but an unrefined approach when standing at it.

All three are extremely young, extremely talented, and have bright futures ahead of them. But I’m sure both they and the Giants would be happy to see just a little on field success before year’s end to take them into their first winter of off-season work with a little skip in their step. (As long as I’m on the topic, sometime later this year, look for exciting news regarding the Giants’ next international class as well).

Up one level, both Anthony Rodriguez and Diego Velasquez are still players whom you will see high up on Giants’ prospect lists (they’re currently #24 and 25 on the Baseball America list, respectively). Both are returning to the complex level and get some love from scouts. But so far, neither has really taken a step forward from their 2021 campaigns. Velasquez still needs more strength to turn his copious contact into something other than routine grounders. Rodriguez jumped out to an early lead in home runs, but he’s striking out more than he did last year (36%!), walking only half as much (7.8%), and hitting just .217 with a lower wRC+ than he had last year. If they have hopes of seeing San Jose in 2023, they’ll need to show some improvement by the end of the year.

Kyle Harrison

Maybe I could have put this in with “the good guys,” but it feels like Kyle Harrison needs his own category: The Great Guy! Obviously, Harrison’s first half has put him in rarefied prospect air. He’s leapt up into Baseball America’s Top 20 prospects, appeared in the Futures Game, and is in the argument for best left-handed pitching prospect in the game.

Much more importantly than prospect status, however, Harrison has sped up his ETA to the majors significantly this year — particularly with his rapid adjustment to Double A. There were a rough couple of starts in there at the beginning, but the youngster didn’t let that little slide get out of hand. He turned the tables on the league, and has been dominating much older competition, both with extraordinary stuff and a sense of pitching that is wise beyond his years. I think there’s a strong chance he can pitch his way to Sacramento before the year is over and earn an invite to spring training next February. Once the big league staff gets their eyes (and teaching methods) on him… he might not be very far away at all.

Richmond Bats

And what of Kyle’s offensive-minded teammates. Moving up from Richmond to Sacramento is not de rigueur. Ask Diego Rincones, who didn’t manage to snag a promotion even with a 140 wRC+ performance over 51 games in Richmond last year. The Giants’ transactional approach to roster building means they stack the Triple A roster with potential big league depth pieces and the endless stretch of waiver claims. Competition for spots on the Sacramento roster is fierce, and players can’t get there by being “good enough” at Double A.

As it stands today, there’s probably no one on the Squirrels roster (with the possible exception of Shane Matheny) who has made the case for a bump up next year with their play so far. But there are players who could do so with strong finishes — or simply improvement in certain key areas.

For most of them, that key area is: contact. Sean Roby has huge power that would definitely play in a big league setting. Tyler Fitzgerald can play any position on the infield well and brings enough pop to be interesting. Brett Auerbach can do most everything Fitzgerald can, and adds catcher and CF to his rèsumé. Michael Gigliotti plays a splendid CF, is an aggressive, impactful base runner, and extremely disciplined hitter who knows how to get on base. Frankie Tostado is probably the best defensive 1b the system has seen since Brandon Belt was a baby giraffe, and has shown increasing power this year. Each of these guys could work their way into the organization’s future plans if they can get to their skills more consistently in games and cut down on the strikeouts. Contact is the secret sauce that could get them to the next level. The one guy who doesn’t need more contact is Rincones, and for him, the challenge is a simpler one: continue to erase his dismal first two months by stepping on the gas. His bat is the one tool that can take him where he wants to go, so he can’t let up. He needs to hit, hit, and hit some more to move on up.

Eric Silva

Scouts have been universal in their praise of Eric Silva in his first full season. Silva, along with Brown and Mason Black, has been the prospect pop up from the 2021 draft class this season. He’s had a better all around repertoire and crisper stuff than many of his older teammates. He’s got a strong high spin fastball that can miss bats at the top of the zone, two different potentially plus breaking balls, and the makings of an interesting change up.

The run prevention numbers haven’t really reflected the quality of his overall pitch mix, as he’s posted a 5.58 ERA so far in the Cal League — that’s in part an object lesson into reading too much into stat lines for young players and low levels. But if there’s a cracked arrow in Silva’s quiver, it’s scouts’ concerns that the relatively small-statured Silva will have some troubles shouldering a full starter’s workload. As he’s stumbled to a 7.83 ERA (with five home runs allowed) since June 1, Silva has often looked fatigued and frequently run innings that have snowballed on him when the stuff starts to flatten out slightly.

How he handles the innings load as he moves into the second half of his first full season could tell us a lot about his path going forward. If he can follow Harrison’s 2021 lead and gain strength over his final months, that could be a great stepping stone for him as he heads into the offseason, and set him up for a strong push in High A next year. If the workload wears the 19-year-old down, then we may be looking at a slightly longer-term development arc as he builds up the necessary strength and stamina to reach his full potential.

Marco Luciano

Luciano had some questions to answer when he entered the 2022 season — he had suffered through a rough introduction to High A over the final six weeks of the 2021 season, and followed that with an equally difficult time in the Arizona Fall League.

Without a doubt, he answered them all with a brilliant first two months to the season. Performing as one of the youngest players in High A, he was the NWL’s finest offensive player through the end of May — and looked to be headed soon to Double A Richmond. But then a back strain interrupted his roll — significantly enough that Farhan Zaidi recently mentioned it could impact his ability to reach Double A at all this year.

Luciano last took a game swing way back on June 3. He’s been out long enough now that he’ll almost certainly need some at bats in the ACL before returning to Eugene, putting him on schedule to miss close to two months of action from High A.

Injuries are a part of the athletic life, and there’s little to do about them but have patience. It sure would be a boost for the organization if he could get back to crushing the NWL soon, however — soon enough to get at least a taste of life in Richmond would be a pleasant surprise. And then, perhaps, a more triumphant spin through the Arizona Fall League this time would really put some shine on his season.

Will Bednar/ Ryan Murphy

It isn’t just hitters who have been bitten by the Back Golem. The top pick of the 2021 draft and the bottom pick of the 2020 draft — but a pop up star from last year — have both seen their season drift sideways thanks to back issues. Ryan Murphy’s year has really never gotten going, as he was sidelined by a back strain in the spring that kept him in extended when the season began. He finally showed up in High A mid-May, but simply hasn’t looked the same as he did in his outstanding initial campaign. Two starts into his Double A career, Murphy landed back on the IL and is, once again, in Scottsdale rehabbing.

Will Bednar spent the first two months of the year looking nothing like the bulldog who dominated the 2021 College World Series. One scout I talked to recently described Bednar’s time in the Cal League as “survival mode.” Thanks to his plus slider, he usually did rise above the competition, but he certainly hasn’t dominated the low level as expected. In mid-June, he too went on the IL with a bad back.

It would go a long way towards strengthening the starting pitcher depth of the system if both of these talented arms returned to their respective mounds looking fresh, loose, athletic, and limber in their deliveries.

The Eugene Power Guys: Hunter Bishop/ Luis Toribio/ Jairo Pomares

Eugene was the epicenter of the Giants’ system to open the year. The opening day roster contained three of the top five prospects in the system, eight of the top 16, and 11 of the top 30. It had two of the previous three 1st round picks for the organization, as well as most of the recent high bonus signings on the international market.

Though that talented roster has proven to be the class of the NWL, many of the individual players have seasons that are teetering in the balance. There have been some good signs (big exit velocities and lots of home run power) and some not so good signs (big strikeout totals and low batting averages). The next two months could help clarify where the development of Hunter Bishop, Jairo Pomares, and Luis Toribio stands at this point.

Bishop came into the year badly in need of reps after missing nearly all of 2021 with shoulder troubles. He’s gotten those reps and shown some good things with them, particularly that plus plus power of his. When he hits balls, they stay hit. Though he’s hitting just .204 so far in July, five of his ten hits have gone for extra bases (including three home runs). That’s been the story of his season overall as well. Plenty of home runs (13) mixed in with loads of swing and miss (his 106 Ks are the most in the league, he’s also fourth in both K% and SwS%). His swing has looked better as the season has gone along, but he’s still just a .219 career hitter in the minors. Even with his power and speed, it’s tough to climb the ladder with that questionable of a hit tool.

Scouts used to consider Toribio’s hit tool his best quality, but over the last two years, he’s hit just .224 in A ball. Lately though, Toribio has changed his approach and gotten more aggressive earlier in counts, rather than working deep counts that often put him at the mercy of pitchers. Even as that’s caused his always healthy walk rate to dip, the approach has been paying off big time, as he’s posted a .983 OPS over his last 25 games and hit .275 during that period. If he can continue to hone that balance between patience and selective aggression — between getting to his raw power and keeping the average and on base percentage up — this could end up being a big bounce back for the 1b prospect.

If Pomares could borrow some of the extra patience that Toribio is no longer using, it might go a long way to restore his luster. Pomares doesn’t necessarily have the same hit tool questions as Bishop, but you wouldn’t necessarily know that from his .215 batting average and .284 OBP. Halfway through the season, he actually has a worse K rate and swinging strike percentage than Bishop (Pomares is 2nd in the league in both dubious categories). For the left-handed slugger, the issue is mostly discretion. His swing-at-everything approach worked splendidly in San Jose, but it’s consistently put him in bad counts and early dismissals in High A. When he hits the ball, he’s posting some of the best exit velocities in the system, but the swing decisions need to improve to get to that hard contact more frequently.

These are three of the better hitters in the system, and they’re collectively hitting .221 in High A. It would be very nice not to have to repeat that sentence come winter.

Roger Munter @rog61

Here's a Luis Toribio double from today

Heliot Ramos

I mentioned this yesterday — you can trace a number of the Giants’ roster machinations this season to the failure of Heliot Ramos to prove his readiness. The Giants cleared a runway for him to grab a role in the right-handed outfield rotation — and maybe even more that — and it just hasn’t happened.

Instead, for the second consecutive season, Ramos has posted an offensive slash line significantly below league average in the PCL. In fact, his .224/.314/.336 line represents a step backwards from his PCL performance of 2021, which garnered a wRC+ of just 80 (or 20% below league average). As I’ve written repeatedly, Ramos has been a conundrum this year, consistently putting up some of the loudest contact in the minors, but wasting most of it on ground balls and opposite field fly balls.

If he could convert those hard hits into pull side power, he could inject a dose of pure adrenaline into the Giants’ sometimes moribund looking lineup. But despite plenty of mechanical work with Giants’ instructors, it hasn’t happened yet. No single emergence on the farm system could bear as direct an impact on the next year of Giants’ baseball (and possibly more) than a Ramos turnaround. I will find incense and a prayerbook. You search for a fatted calf. Let us prepare to make sacrifices to the baseball gods.

Luis Matos

Obviously, Luis Matos could go with “The Eugene Guys” above, but his struggles feel like they deserve their own categorization. First of all, coming off of his MVP season in 2021, expectations for Matos were in a standing of their own. He was zooming into Top 100 lists for virtually every prospect site, and many journalists tabbed him as the kind of player who could make that spectacular leap from the back half of Top 100s into the upper echelons of those lists (don’t feel too bad, Harrison did that instead!)

What happened instead? Struggles. Adjustment struggles followed by a lengthy IL stint followed by more struggles. Scouts who have seen him describe a player who looks unsure of himself, taking tentative swings without conviction. Out of rhythm, out of sync, and out of sorts. Some will ask whether he’s still injured, but then note that he looks better in center field than he ever has and runs the bases like a fully healthy version of himself. Unlike so many others in the system, strikeouts haven’t been the issue, as he still has an exceptional 16% K rate. But there’s been an unending string of weak contact — enough grounders to plow a field and enough infield pop ups to seed the clouds for rain.

The overall picture seems to be of a player who tried to make adjustments (whether mechanically or philosophically) and instead got himself messed up. Now he’s struggling to get back to some version of himself that he recognizes. There still aren’t many bigger talents in this organization. But if he’s going to avoid having a completely lost year, Matos needs that talent to show itself again over the next two months. There’s nobody in the org who needs a big final act more than the gifted Venezuelan.

Titles

Of course, we can’t forget the storyline that always plays out over the final weeks of the season — will the Giants’ organization claim more crowns in 2022? Richmond and Eugene have already claimed tickets to their league playoffs, while San Jose finished just a game out of a first half title, and now must scramble to get in. One of the ACL teams, Giants Black, is also in position for post-season play, as they’ve spent most of the short season with the league’s best record.

Playing to win keeps players invested and focused, and helps them trick their tired bodies into working harder. It forges bonds and friendships. And, of course, it teaches athletes the intricacies of playing winning ball.

We had two rings last year — let’s hope for at least that many when we reach the finish line of 2022.

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And there you have it — our main storylines to follow for the remainder of the year. Ready for it all to unfold? What story are you going to be following most closely?

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Rookie Leagues

Giants Black beat ACL D’backs Red, 4-2 (7 inn)

Giants Orange won @ ACL Angels, 8-2 (7 inn)

P.J. Hilson’s RBI triple keyed a three-run rally for the Black that carried them to another victory. Over the last 10 games, Hilson has 13 hits in 39 ABs, including four doubles, three triples, and three home runs. His 11 strikeouts over that period represents one of his best stretches of contact in his career, though it’s still a 26% K rate. From my looks at Hilson last week, he tends to be in swing mode at the plate and can get himself out by going after pitches out of the zone. He’s been barreling things up in the zone lately, though! Anthony Rodriguez and Javier Francisco each chipped in with two hits. For Francisco, that broke an 0 for 17 stretch. It was his first multi-hit game since coming to Arizona.

Derwin Laya’s three-run homer was the big blow in a winning, ten-hit effort for the Orange. The 18-year-old infielder has had a hard time getting balls into the air this year, with a groundball rate that has hovered around 70%! He’s also been striking out 30% of the time, which helps explain the low average. He has a projectible body and could grow into more strength in time. Logan Wyatt added two hits and two RBI as he continues to work his way back to affiliate ball.

There was a lot of rehab work going on on the bump, too. Carson Ragsdale made another appearance in his comeback from thoracic outlet surgery. For the second straight outing, he went 1.2 IP, as the Giants are being very careful with the talented right-hander. Scott Alexander is a 33-year-old left-hander with an exceptional slider who spent parts of seven seasons in the majors with the Royals and Dodgers. He ended 2021 on the 60-day IL with shoulder inflammation and the Giants signed him as a minor league free agent this offseason. Two other off-season acquisitions made their first appearance of the year in Orange’s game. They signed left-hander Daniel Tillo to a minor league deal after he was DFA’d by Kansas City in April. Tillo had Tommy John surgery in 2020, and pitched just 29 innings last season. Right-handed starter Tanner Andrews was acquired from Atlanta for cash in December just one day after Atlanta had selected him in the minor league Rule 5 draft. Andrews pitched just 5.2 innings in 2021 in an injury shortened season.

Gerelmi Maldonado managed to sneak in between all the rehabbers to get in a couple of innings. The strong-armed, but still raw, Maldonado, had an odd outing, as every ball put in play against him went for a hit, but he struck out the other five batters who faced him.

Both of the Giants’ DSL games were suspended by rain and will be completed at a future date.

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Tonight’s Scheduled Starters:

Sacramento (TBD) @ Oklahoma City (May), 5:05 pm, MiLBTV
Richmond (TBD) vs. Bowie (Hanifee), 3:35 pm, MiLBTV
Eugene (TBD) @ Everett (Reinhart), 7:05 pm, No Video
San Jose (McDonald) @ Modesto (TBD), 7:05 pm, MiLBTV
ACL Giants Black (Monegro) vs. ACL D’backs Black, 6:00 pm, No Video
ACL Giants Orange (Paulino) @ ACL Rockies (TBD), 6:00 pm, No Video
DSL Giants Black (Estrada) @ DSL CLE Red (TBD), 8:00 am, No Video
DSL Giants Orange (Martinez) vs. DSL Tigers1 (TBD), 8:00 am, No Video

Well, not so much “scheduled starters” as gameday info, I suppose! “TBD” doing an awful lot of work today! Nonetheless, our pause is over and it’s time to plunge back into the maelstrom! Sacramento hitters get a real challenge going up against Dustin May, as the turbo-charged Krusty clone tries to work his way back to Dodger Stadium. May threw two innings in the ACL last week in his first action of the year.

One last thing, since I’m setting up for the second half: I do have a second half trip to mention. I will be in Eugene August 9-11 to watch the Emeralds take on the Vancouver Canadiens. I know that one of my readers is organizing a get together during that trip, where I’ll be available to talk Giants baseball and answer questions over a late lunch. John can provide info below if anyone is interested in joining. Otherwise, you can find me in my orange There R Giants shirt behind home plate (or in the press box) during the games if you’d like to say hello. Following that, I’m heading to San Jose for the rest of the week (August 12-14) to sit in on their series against the Stockton Ports. Feel free to say hello!