Reggie and Bryce seem like great guys. That said, did the Giants make a mistake drafting 2-way players, as opposed to focusing on elite up-the-middle athletes?
Hi Roger, there’s been some recent criticism about the quality of the Giants player development in a Baseball America podcast and elsewhere. Do you have any sense that the organization itself has recognized weaknesses or is trying to make changes?
When I first started following a few years back, I fell in love with Ismael Munguia after reading a profile in that year’s top 50. He has long since fallen out of your top 50 list, and yet he is a consistent NRI at Spring Training. What should I make of these mixed signals?
Hello. I have some questions about Heliot Ramos. I was surprised when he was drafted in 2017 because he was the type of prospect that the Giants had a terrible track record of developing (i.e., young, athletic, raw, toolsy, outfielder). After almost seven years, unless something drastic happens this season, the best thing I can say about Ramos is that he's better than Wendell Fairley.
A theme that you often repeat is that player development takes a long time with more failures than successes. However, the inability of the Giants to develop prospects like Ramos has been a problem for decades. A success rate of zero (Bryan Reynolds doesn't count), suggests that the Giants, despite their best efforts, are underperforming random chance in developing prospects like Ramos. That's pretty hard to do.
When an organization has such an obvious, systemic flaw, how does it typically address the issue to get better results? What change, if any, have the Giants made in this area? With regard to Ramos, would he have been better off being drafted by another organization? What would it say about Giants player development if Ramos were succeed on another team if he doesn't make it with the Giants?
I feel like there's been quite a bit of dismissing of Bryce Eldridge's chances as a pitcher, including Longenhagen's recent comment that he is not a two-way player (which I presume to be an incorrect interpretation of his post-draft hitter-only time). But the word on draft day was that he was possibly a top three round pitcher, which is much better than Reggie Crawford was with the bat. Extra patience with the two-way portion should also be possible given that Eldridge is much younger and not recovering from TJ. All of that to say, I understand Eldridge is very exciting as a hitter, and you don't want the pitching disrupting that, but is skepticism on the pitching something you're hearing from the team/industry or solely a reflection on the quality of the bat?
Pavs said yesterday that the Giants are hopeful that Reggie Crawford moves quickly. How realistic is that given how few innings he's pitched? What innings limit do you expect for him this season?
You’ve said for a while that you like Kyle Harrison’s changeup, and that’s not an uncommon thought in the industry- Keith Law projects it as plus, and MLB Pipeline likes it too. But it didn’t really pop on any of the publicly available stuff metrics we have, and even the raw Statcast data on it didn’t seem that encouraging from either a results or pitch shape perspective (great horizontal but subpar vertical and velo difference). Anecdotally, I also remember it being mentioned in somewhere like a SJMN beat article that what got Harrison to throw his change more in the big leagues was Andrew Bailey suggesting it’d be easier for him if he supinated it. From my incredibly limited knowledge of pitch design, that seems suboptimal to pronating your change, right? Is this all just stuff that Kyle will work out over time by throwing the pitch more and getting more comfortable with it, or do you think there might be some more tinkering that needs to be done with it to reach its fullest potential?
Maybe I missed a similar question in a past mailbag, so if I did consider this question to be retracted. My question is this: who are the Giants prospects you think are most likely to jump into top 100 lists this year? And are they any dark horses or players further down your list you think might have a chance to be on future top 100 lists?
Enjoying your top 50 MiLB prospect pieces, Roger. Thank you for your great work. My question: where do you see our top five picks playing (at which level{s} this year? I hope Eldridge and Martin ascend to High-A. Joe Whitman, Cole Foster and Maui Ahuna? Best guess on #6-10? Clearly we need to accelerate the pace at which we "grow our own" MLB players vs. acquiring talent from outside the organization.
Roger, To your experience, what becomes of these top prospects? In terms of this season and in a broader 2-3 year scenario… statistically, how many from a top 15 prospects list can one expect to be contributing to the major league Giants? If you need to distinguish this between position players and arms, you would be kind.
Where would the Giants rank (among all MLB systems) based on the quality of all their young players (let's define it as under 25), regardless of their level, rookie status, etc.?
Reggie and Bryce seem like great guys. That said, did the Giants make a mistake drafting 2-way players, as opposed to focusing on elite up-the-middle athletes?
I keep wondering the same myself but then if Bryce turns into the next Pete Alonso, that would be something!
Hi Roger, there’s been some recent criticism about the quality of the Giants player development in a Baseball America podcast and elsewhere. Do you have any sense that the organization itself has recognized weaknesses or is trying to make changes?
Do you have a link to that pod episode?
When I first started following a few years back, I fell in love with Ismael Munguia after reading a profile in that year’s top 50. He has long since fallen out of your top 50 list, and yet he is a consistent NRI at Spring Training. What should I make of these mixed signals?
He hasn’t been able to stay on the field but he’s a grade 80 hustle guy and that’s someone to root for!
Hello. I have some questions about Heliot Ramos. I was surprised when he was drafted in 2017 because he was the type of prospect that the Giants had a terrible track record of developing (i.e., young, athletic, raw, toolsy, outfielder). After almost seven years, unless something drastic happens this season, the best thing I can say about Ramos is that he's better than Wendell Fairley.
A theme that you often repeat is that player development takes a long time with more failures than successes. However, the inability of the Giants to develop prospects like Ramos has been a problem for decades. A success rate of zero (Bryan Reynolds doesn't count), suggests that the Giants, despite their best efforts, are underperforming random chance in developing prospects like Ramos. That's pretty hard to do.
When an organization has such an obvious, systemic flaw, how does it typically address the issue to get better results? What change, if any, have the Giants made in this area? With regard to Ramos, would he have been better off being drafted by another organization? What would it say about Giants player development if Ramos were succeed on another team if he doesn't make it with the Giants?
Excellent questions!
I feel like there's been quite a bit of dismissing of Bryce Eldridge's chances as a pitcher, including Longenhagen's recent comment that he is not a two-way player (which I presume to be an incorrect interpretation of his post-draft hitter-only time). But the word on draft day was that he was possibly a top three round pitcher, which is much better than Reggie Crawford was with the bat. Extra patience with the two-way portion should also be possible given that Eldridge is much younger and not recovering from TJ. All of that to say, I understand Eldridge is very exciting as a hitter, and you don't want the pitching disrupting that, but is skepticism on the pitching something you're hearing from the team/industry or solely a reflection on the quality of the bat?
Pavs said yesterday that the Giants are hopeful that Reggie Crawford moves quickly. How realistic is that given how few innings he's pitched? What innings limit do you expect for him this season?
Not realistic in my opinion because he would need to be healthy to move quickly!
Is there a world where Whiz or Birdsong see big league time before the all star break? How do they look so far..
You’ve said for a while that you like Kyle Harrison’s changeup, and that’s not an uncommon thought in the industry- Keith Law projects it as plus, and MLB Pipeline likes it too. But it didn’t really pop on any of the publicly available stuff metrics we have, and even the raw Statcast data on it didn’t seem that encouraging from either a results or pitch shape perspective (great horizontal but subpar vertical and velo difference). Anecdotally, I also remember it being mentioned in somewhere like a SJMN beat article that what got Harrison to throw his change more in the big leagues was Andrew Bailey suggesting it’d be easier for him if he supinated it. From my incredibly limited knowledge of pitch design, that seems suboptimal to pronating your change, right? Is this all just stuff that Kyle will work out over time by throwing the pitch more and getting more comfortable with it, or do you think there might be some more tinkering that needs to be done with it to reach its fullest potential?
Maybe I missed a similar question in a past mailbag, so if I did consider this question to be retracted. My question is this: who are the Giants prospects you think are most likely to jump into top 100 lists this year? And are they any dark horses or players further down your list you think might have a chance to be on future top 100 lists?
Enjoying your top 50 MiLB prospect pieces, Roger. Thank you for your great work. My question: where do you see our top five picks playing (at which level{s} this year? I hope Eldridge and Martin ascend to High-A. Joe Whitman, Cole Foster and Maui Ahuna? Best guess on #6-10? Clearly we need to accelerate the pace at which we "grow our own" MLB players vs. acquiring talent from outside the organization.
With the drop from 180 to 165, what former big prospects do you see as this being their last year to prove themselves?
Roger, To your experience, what becomes of these top prospects? In terms of this season and in a broader 2-3 year scenario… statistically, how many from a top 15 prospects list can one expect to be contributing to the major league Giants? If you need to distinguish this between position players and arms, you would be kind.
Outside of the big three, which 2023 and 2024 signed position players are you most excited to follow this season?
Where would the Giants rank (among all MLB systems) based on the quality of all their young players (let's define it as under 25), regardless of their level, rookie status, etc.?
I'm going to do a 25U list after the TOp 50 is over and I'll try to remember to answer this question in that post Yeti
Awesome! Looking forward to it.