Thanks for all the great content over the All Star break, Roger. It sure wasn’t a break for you!
Your analysis last week of how Heliot Ramos has maximized his elite power helped explain a great (and at times unexpected) PD success story. Clearly the org has very few 45 FV or better hitters. But I imagine there are some guys with impressive data points that suggest a breakthrough to become a big league regular is at least plausible. Would you give a rundown of those players and their encouraging metrics — and then say what they need to improve upon to ‘put it all together’ and whether you see progress on that front?
What happened to Reggie Crawford? He was pitching relatively consistently and then suddenly stopped around a month ago. I haven’t heard any injury updates since. Thanks for the coverage!
How/why do you think Dakota Jordan landed with the Giants in the fourth round of the draft? The Athletic’s Keith Law wrote Jordan “had the tools to go in the top-10 picks” (!!) and MLB Pipeline ranked him No. 34 heading in. I understand Jordan has strikeout concerns, and Law also wrote “he’s a longshot to get to that enormous ceiling.” But it seems like getting him at No. 116 was a coup. I imagine teams knew his bonus demand — what do you guess it is, by the way? — and the Giants were willing to meet it. Drafting and signing a way-over-slot-value guy signals a big investment/ a player they really want, and Farhan & Co. seem to tab one of those guys most years. So I’m curious if you think Jordan is that guy in 2024 and how you feel his selection went down.
At the helm for almost six years now, it doesn’t appear Farhan has met many of his deliverables - rebuild the farm system (experts still rank us no better than 20th after the recent ‘24 draft), recruit/sign and develop impact players (Bishop & Bednar have been injured or busts; jury remains out on Ramos, Lee, Matos, Luciano, et al; Snell and Soler have been disappointing signings thus far; Eldridge may currently be the only possible impact position player in the minors), and win at the major league level (unless Gigantes win 60% of their remaining games, no playoffs for five of his six years). Our drafting seems mostly mediocre, the product on the field (aside from the outlier of ‘21) has been the same. Zaidi seemed more effective as an assistant with the Dodgers and A’s. Is it time for a change in leadership, direction, and philosophy?
I have no clue as to how Roger feels about Zaidi, but as a fan who suffered for decades with the Warriors 40 years of ineptitude that went directly back to having a terrible owner (Cohan) whose sole purpose was to run the basketball team as a source of income: meaning, trading or selling off every player the moment they got good and other self-defeating principles, so far I have no issue with most any part of Zaidi's philosophy. I have suffered through WAY, WAY worse.
In defense of Gerald, I don't actually believe that "is this the worst imaginable situation this franchise could find itself in" is a rationale decision-making process.
Hi Roger. My apologies if you've covered this previously but why is the ACL finishing so soon? Is this the shape if things to come as it seems new draftees will have limited opportunity to get on the field, probably outside of the top picks. Would this have any bearing on them only picking up one undrafted free agent in spite of a lower number of players drafted?
Roger, this may be a dumb question. What is the goal of ISO as a stat? I see it used as a measure of power in a lot of baseball discourse, but that doesn’t seem intuitive to me.
For example: a hitter with a 0.100 average who’s slugging 0.300 has the same ISO as a hitter with a 0.200 average who’s slugging 0.400. The 0.100 hitter has more power (averaging a triple!) while the 0.200 hitter is a better hitter but only averages a double.
I’m not sure if this is just me misunderstanding a stat, or if ISO is usually contextualized enough that it plays its part well. It seems to me, though, that a better measure of raw power is probably slugging / average rather than slugging - average. Is that true, or am I missing something?
Also, just for fun: if you had to name a favorite pitch in the system right now from someone below AAA, which one would it be?
I’m sure there are other examples but why have guys like Grant Mccray stolen much fewer baes this year? 50+ last year and only 11 this year.. Curious why he would steal less bases the closer he gets to the bigs and it can’t be because of a regression in the speed category id imagine
Hey Roger! Just curious what you think/are seeing with Walker Martin - it's hard to make sense out of his batting line. The 40% strikeout rate paired with the near-20% walk rate might suggest he's just taking a ton of pitches and trying to work walks. Is that actually the case or is there a lot of swing-and-miss in there too?
Another question on Luciano, And I know that every mailbag has featured him including another question in this very one, But I am so curious about why his Max EV is down so much. From what I can tell he hit balls upwards of 115 last year and this year I don't think he's hit a ball above 110 (I don't have the exact numbers). It seems like such a huge dropoff losing 5 mph on your max exit velo and it feels like it's a result of the recurring back issues. I was watching some old video from when he was in San Jose and his swing seemed so much more fluid and powerful compared to where it is today.. Feels like he needs to recapture that to reach his potential.
Hi Joe. I didn't get to this question. But I will say here that as far as I can tell, the highest verified EV Luciano hit last year was 111.8, which he reached three times. This year the Max EV I can find is 110.1 which is not a significant decline and can, I think, be explained by many different things, among which would be a softer ball in the PCL (I can count on one hand the number of balls that have been hit over 110 mph this year in River Cats games by either team). I also think he spent much of the first few months working on letting the ball travel deeper to get to more contact which would also slow the swing down.
Well that’s a tweet from me! Seems like a reliable source. I still think the most likely explanation is change in approach. He’s been hitting it a good deal harder lately and had a game recently w two different balls at 109. That doesn’t suggest any substantial problem to me
I know it reduces his value, but given Soler’s struggles this year, has there ever been any thought of using Luciano as a DH at the major league level?
Thanks for all the great content over the All Star break, Roger. It sure wasn’t a break for you!
Your analysis last week of how Heliot Ramos has maximized his elite power helped explain a great (and at times unexpected) PD success story. Clearly the org has very few 45 FV or better hitters. But I imagine there are some guys with impressive data points that suggest a breakthrough to become a big league regular is at least plausible. Would you give a rundown of those players and their encouraging metrics — and then say what they need to improve upon to ‘put it all together’ and whether you see progress on that front?
What happened to Reggie Crawford? He was pitching relatively consistently and then suddenly stopped around a month ago. I haven’t heard any injury updates since. Thanks for the coverage!
what is the one thing if you had to choose one that Vaughn Brown has to improve to become a contributing bigger in the next calendar year?
big leaguer
How/why do you think Dakota Jordan landed with the Giants in the fourth round of the draft? The Athletic’s Keith Law wrote Jordan “had the tools to go in the top-10 picks” (!!) and MLB Pipeline ranked him No. 34 heading in. I understand Jordan has strikeout concerns, and Law also wrote “he’s a longshot to get to that enormous ceiling.” But it seems like getting him at No. 116 was a coup. I imagine teams knew his bonus demand — what do you guess it is, by the way? — and the Giants were willing to meet it. Drafting and signing a way-over-slot-value guy signals a big investment/ a player they really want, and Farhan & Co. seem to tab one of those guys most years. So I’m curious if you think Jordan is that guy in 2024 and how you feel his selection went down.
At the helm for almost six years now, it doesn’t appear Farhan has met many of his deliverables - rebuild the farm system (experts still rank us no better than 20th after the recent ‘24 draft), recruit/sign and develop impact players (Bishop & Bednar have been injured or busts; jury remains out on Ramos, Lee, Matos, Luciano, et al; Snell and Soler have been disappointing signings thus far; Eldridge may currently be the only possible impact position player in the minors), and win at the major league level (unless Gigantes win 60% of their remaining games, no playoffs for five of his six years). Our drafting seems mostly mediocre, the product on the field (aside from the outlier of ‘21) has been the same. Zaidi seemed more effective as an assistant with the Dodgers and A’s. Is it time for a change in leadership, direction, and philosophy?
I have no clue as to how Roger feels about Zaidi, but as a fan who suffered for decades with the Warriors 40 years of ineptitude that went directly back to having a terrible owner (Cohan) whose sole purpose was to run the basketball team as a source of income: meaning, trading or selling off every player the moment they got good and other self-defeating principles, so far I have no issue with most any part of Zaidi's philosophy. I have suffered through WAY, WAY worse.
In defense of Gerald, I don't actually believe that "is this the worst imaginable situation this franchise could find itself in" is a rationale decision-making process.
Hi Roger. My apologies if you've covered this previously but why is the ACL finishing so soon? Is this the shape if things to come as it seems new draftees will have limited opportunity to get on the field, probably outside of the top picks. Would this have any bearing on them only picking up one undrafted free agent in spite of a lower number of players drafted?
Roger, this may be a dumb question. What is the goal of ISO as a stat? I see it used as a measure of power in a lot of baseball discourse, but that doesn’t seem intuitive to me.
For example: a hitter with a 0.100 average who’s slugging 0.300 has the same ISO as a hitter with a 0.200 average who’s slugging 0.400. The 0.100 hitter has more power (averaging a triple!) while the 0.200 hitter is a better hitter but only averages a double.
I’m not sure if this is just me misunderstanding a stat, or if ISO is usually contextualized enough that it plays its part well. It seems to me, though, that a better measure of raw power is probably slugging / average rather than slugging - average. Is that true, or am I missing something?
Also, just for fun: if you had to name a favorite pitch in the system right now from someone below AAA, which one would it be?
I’m sure there are other examples but why have guys like Grant Mccray stolen much fewer baes this year? 50+ last year and only 11 this year.. Curious why he would steal less bases the closer he gets to the bigs and it can’t be because of a regression in the speed category id imagine
Hey Roger! Just curious what you think/are seeing with Walker Martin - it's hard to make sense out of his batting line. The 40% strikeout rate paired with the near-20% walk rate might suggest he's just taking a ton of pitches and trying to work walks. Is that actually the case or is there a lot of swing-and-miss in there too?
Another question on Luciano, And I know that every mailbag has featured him including another question in this very one, But I am so curious about why his Max EV is down so much. From what I can tell he hit balls upwards of 115 last year and this year I don't think he's hit a ball above 110 (I don't have the exact numbers). It seems like such a huge dropoff losing 5 mph on your max exit velo and it feels like it's a result of the recurring back issues. I was watching some old video from when he was in San Jose and his swing seemed so much more fluid and powerful compared to where it is today.. Feels like he needs to recapture that to reach his potential.
Hi Joe. I didn't get to this question. But I will say here that as far as I can tell, the highest verified EV Luciano hit last year was 111.8, which he reached three times. This year the Max EV I can find is 110.1 which is not a significant decline and can, I think, be explained by many different things, among which would be a softer ball in the PCL (I can count on one hand the number of balls that have been hit over 110 mph this year in River Cats games by either team). I also think he spent much of the first few months working on letting the ball travel deeper to get to more contact which would also slow the swing down.
I think I was referring to a tweet from when he was in Richmond about him hitting a Hr 115 the other way
Well that’s a tweet from me! Seems like a reliable source. I still think the most likely explanation is change in approach. He’s been hitting it a good deal harder lately and had a game recently w two different balls at 109. That doesn’t suggest any substantial problem to me
Probably the one he hit in Bowie. I can try to track that post down and see what I had it as that day
https://x.com/rog61/status/1658859072500662274?s=46 This was the one i read.. Perhaps the gun was a little hot if it stayed in haha
Hi Roger, how does Luciano look at 2B so far? Do you think he will stay there?
I know it reduces his value, but given Soler’s struggles this year, has there ever been any thought of using Luciano as a DH at the major league level?