Kyle Harrison, Mason Black, and Hayden Birdsong all received various amounts of praise during their minor league stints for their fastballs. You yourself stated in the past that Black’s fastball gets by on its good shape, and called Birdsong’s “electric”. Not trying to phrase this question as any sort of “gotcha” with that, just providing context for where my question comes from. Which is: why do stuff models hate them all then? Harrison’s FB not being the whiff monster it was in the minors has been a talking point all season, but I feel like Black and Birdsong are even more striking to me from a dev standpoint. Stuff+ thinks both of Black’s fastballs are bad, and it rates Birdsong’s worse, even with the velo difference. I’d say the pitches have generally performed like that too- Mason’s fastballs got crushed in the majors, and Hayden is already throwing ~50% non-fastballs three starts into his major league career (though also surely because his non-fastballs are filthy)
So I’m left wondering how these prospects had so much genuine success and garnered (varying) levels of hype on fastballs that turned out to have what we seemingly think are sub-optimal movement profiles. Do the Giants just see fastballs that much differently than consensus?
There’s been much discussion in the last couple of years about the org’s challenge of developing starter-level hitters. I think it’s fair to say that was an alarming deficiency. Now the Giants have two home-grown pieces in the middle of the lineup in Heliot Ramos (age 24) and Patrick Bailey (25). Has the narrative shifted in your mind? Or do you feel the jury is still out about whether this regime has what it takes to produce capable bats?
It feels like the There R Giants community should celebrate Heliot Ramos at the All Star break, so I’ll toss this into the mailbag. It’s really thrilling that the Giants have a 24-year-old All Star center fielder. What a huge development on several levels. I keep marveling at how the ball is jumping off Ramos’ bat, particularly to the opposite field. He’s just punishing pitches with a swing that looks easy. How did he develop this elite-level pop? And does his production look sustainable to you?
Really enjoying your great content, Roger. I especially like your interviews with players, media and scouts. Thank you.
Looking at the Giants rotation for the balance of 2024 and into 2025 (at this point), we have Webb, Harrison and Hicks (if he can stretch out to 150+ innings in a season). We have Snell, Ray and Cobb either in the rotation or close to being active, but all three are likely not in the Giants rotation in 2025.
My question: how would you rate the potential of our corps of young starters now working their way to MLB (or have already appeared) to establish themselves as part of the 2025 rotation (or staff, as reliever/spot starter)? Birdsong has been impressive, and Harrison appears to be growing into a viable middle of the rotation starter. That leaves this group we've seen or heard about: Tristan Beck, Keaton Winn, Mason Black, Landen Roupp, maybe Spencer Bivens? Possibly one or more of the "Carsons" (Whisenhunt, Seymour, Ragsdale)? Anyone else you think might be close? If not in the Giants rotation, maybe a good trade piece to add a much-needed young bat? Thanks in advance.
I’m hoping you’ll do a little future analysis and comparison, Roger. If we fast forward to a point beyond the careers of current players, how do you feel the years of amateur talent acquisition in recent Giants history will have stacked up against each other? Draft and international combined in a calendar year — so the 2023 group includes Eldridge and Arias. I’d love to see a ranking/projection of years with the most value to least.
I know you don’t like speculating on injuries but have you heard anything on Logan Wyatt, Will Kempner, or Dariel Lopez. All have been MIA this year. Sadly Spencer Miles has disappeared too.
Despite the terrible 40 man crunch looming soon, any chance that Jerar Encarnacion has earned a call up at some point? Former prospect pedigree, 2nd in the PCL in wRC+ among players with 100 PAs... he seems like a better fit for the short-side platoon corner outfield role that Matos (who I am disturbed to see has a lower wRC+ than Nick Ahmed on the year) is currently inhabiting
Kyle Harrison, Mason Black, and Hayden Birdsong all received various amounts of praise during their minor league stints for their fastballs. You yourself stated in the past that Black’s fastball gets by on its good shape, and called Birdsong’s “electric”. Not trying to phrase this question as any sort of “gotcha” with that, just providing context for where my question comes from. Which is: why do stuff models hate them all then? Harrison’s FB not being the whiff monster it was in the minors has been a talking point all season, but I feel like Black and Birdsong are even more striking to me from a dev standpoint. Stuff+ thinks both of Black’s fastballs are bad, and it rates Birdsong’s worse, even with the velo difference. I’d say the pitches have generally performed like that too- Mason’s fastballs got crushed in the majors, and Hayden is already throwing ~50% non-fastballs three starts into his major league career (though also surely because his non-fastballs are filthy)
So I’m left wondering how these prospects had so much genuine success and garnered (varying) levels of hype on fastballs that turned out to have what we seemingly think are sub-optimal movement profiles. Do the Giants just see fastballs that much differently than consensus?
There’s been much discussion in the last couple of years about the org’s challenge of developing starter-level hitters. I think it’s fair to say that was an alarming deficiency. Now the Giants have two home-grown pieces in the middle of the lineup in Heliot Ramos (age 24) and Patrick Bailey (25). Has the narrative shifted in your mind? Or do you feel the jury is still out about whether this regime has what it takes to produce capable bats?
It feels like the There R Giants community should celebrate Heliot Ramos at the All Star break, so I’ll toss this into the mailbag. It’s really thrilling that the Giants have a 24-year-old All Star center fielder. What a huge development on several levels. I keep marveling at how the ball is jumping off Ramos’ bat, particularly to the opposite field. He’s just punishing pitches with a swing that looks easy. How did he develop this elite-level pop? And does his production look sustainable to you?
Really enjoying your great content, Roger. I especially like your interviews with players, media and scouts. Thank you.
Looking at the Giants rotation for the balance of 2024 and into 2025 (at this point), we have Webb, Harrison and Hicks (if he can stretch out to 150+ innings in a season). We have Snell, Ray and Cobb either in the rotation or close to being active, but all three are likely not in the Giants rotation in 2025.
My question: how would you rate the potential of our corps of young starters now working their way to MLB (or have already appeared) to establish themselves as part of the 2025 rotation (or staff, as reliever/spot starter)? Birdsong has been impressive, and Harrison appears to be growing into a viable middle of the rotation starter. That leaves this group we've seen or heard about: Tristan Beck, Keaton Winn, Mason Black, Landen Roupp, maybe Spencer Bivens? Possibly one or more of the "Carsons" (Whisenhunt, Seymour, Ragsdale)? Anyone else you think might be close? If not in the Giants rotation, maybe a good trade piece to add a much-needed young bat? Thanks in advance.
What do you make if wisely’s success and how sustainable it might be
I’m hoping you’ll do a little future analysis and comparison, Roger. If we fast forward to a point beyond the careers of current players, how do you feel the years of amateur talent acquisition in recent Giants history will have stacked up against each other? Draft and international combined in a calendar year — so the 2023 group includes Eldridge and Arias. I’d love to see a ranking/projection of years with the most value to least.
I know you don’t like speculating on injuries but have you heard anything on Logan Wyatt, Will Kempner, or Dariel Lopez. All have been MIA this year. Sadly Spencer Miles has disappeared too.
Despite the terrible 40 man crunch looming soon, any chance that Jerar Encarnacion has earned a call up at some point? Former prospect pedigree, 2nd in the PCL in wRC+ among players with 100 PAs... he seems like a better fit for the short-side platoon corner outfield role that Matos (who I am disturbed to see has a lower wRC+ than Nick Ahmed on the year) is currently inhabiting