As a Giants fan, I have tunnel vision on the organization. What do you think other organizations that are doing a better job of developing talent doing that the Giants are not?
i want to piggy back on this question to add, since your main viewing stage seems to be Richmond and the AA Squirrels, what do you see with all the eastern league teams you see that lead you to think, i wish the Giants were better at X.
First, thanks for all you do and can’t wait for another full season of your coverage!
We all know the Giants are short on bats and quite long on young, close to ML-ready arms. Do you still see any trades in that sense being made before the season starts to boost the lineup? Or is this what we go into the season with and figure it out from there?
If Luis Arraez is available, would he make sense for the Giants? He has a very specific skill set that fits Oracle, can take pressure off playing Fitzgerald at 2B, can spell at 1B, and slots in second in the order as a contact guy behind Lee. Or is that not high enough of a priority for the club, at this point?
You have previously made an excellent case that our development system (particularly on the hitting side) lacks a unified vision and blueprint for implementation. Looking at the current state of the system, it is hard to argue that the Zaidi era was a failure in terms of transforming our system into a credible strength. It's a bit underwhelming to see our affiliates running back the exact same staffs as last year's. What signs will you look for as evidence that our new regime understands the primacy of transforming our farm system into a strong one? What hires? What visible training methods? What on field metrics will give you rays of hope in this regard?
You often talk about the harm of hitting prospects losing a year. Specifically, I'm thinking of Rayner Arias essentially losing two years - the discourse with Arias seems to be that he's actually damaged by two lost years, rather than just delayed. Could you expound on that? Is it rust that is hard to wash off? Is it that a player has a finite number of years in which they can be learning things like recognizing pitches, and those are being squandered? To the naked eye, it would seem that losing two years of development wouldn't hurt a prospect so much as delay their debut by two years, but it seems clear that's not the case. Would love to better understand why that is.
As always, loving all the insights we’re privileged to get from you Roger! Saw some unsubstantiated social media chatter that Mason Black was trying out the “kick change” grip. Anything you can confirm or deny about that?
Tangentially, I find it interesting and curious how many of the Giants pitchers have found different roads to a particular kind of movement profile on their changeup. At least from what I can tell, Logan Webb, Hayden Birdsong, Landen Roupp, and Spencer Bivens all now throw some version of a power change that has more velocity and drop than the average RHP cambio and significantly less arm side fade. Is this just a funny coincidence? Is it the Giants’ preference for Webb-like cambios filtering down through their dev teams? Are the Giants good at developing this kind of pitch, or am I only wondering that because Daniel Blair and Hayden happened to be offseason training buddies? Hope that wasn’t too many ways to ask the same question, thanks again!
Can you contextualize the departure of Yeshayah Goldfarb? What does his departure mean for the Giants? Could it indicate some level of disagreement in the FO?
I was disappointed to see it, so I was wondering if you had any insight. Thank you!
With the recent trade of Taylor Rogers, Erik Miller seems to be the only left handed reliever on the 26th man. I imagine and hope that they will swing a trade for another lefty before spring training begins. Still, it begs the question, what other lefties do the Giants have in their system who might make that step forward for a relief role on the big league roster this season? Luchessi & Whisenhunt both come to mind although they're both considered starters. Who else is close to winning a spot in the bullpen? Thanks!
I’d like to hear more about Zach Minasian- what he’s like? What you predict his style will be? Is he fully running the day to day? Making the calls on trades, transactions and going to posey for yes or no on all things or certain things? Is Jeremy Shelly mad he’s not the gm- what is his role? Same, increased, decreased? Have you heard much about Bobby Evans being involved?
Wonder if you have any insights on how some of the smaller market teams (Guardians, Brewers, etc.) are able to identify and develop players better than the Giants can? Are there a small number of top guys that are just really good, those teams are willing to spend more on PD, or something else?
Btw, how much mobility is there for staff to move between teams? And would you know if teams like Dodgers or Yankees pay their staff better, or do they hire more people?
In reading about "reliever risk" in the most recent top-50 installment I was wondering: is that risk higher for the international kids compared to those who arrive via the draft? And for those drafted, is that risk higher for a high-school draftee vs a college arm?
Do you think the league may be at the beginning of a change in ownership structure? It’s my understanding the Guggenheim group allows the Dodgers to spend like it does. Is this the future for baseball or pro sports in general?
Is JDJG going to start the year in the ACL or the DSL? Also, what's your view on the "brain drain' that the organization has seen post 2021. Feels like they have lost a lot of highly respected - if not the most respected names in the industry, Bannister Bailey etc. Feels like a lot of organization roles have been left empty after the person occupying them found a new job.
How do you see the Giants stocking the cupboard with high end prospect talent while maintaining an on field team people will pay to see? Keith Law just ranked the Giants farm system 26th. Others have similar views. Posey inherited a nightmare IMHO but at least ownership is willing to spend more than most. But without a farm system that adds depth to backup the major league team, we are looking at another mediocre season at best. I can see a lot of deadline trades in the Giants future but in all reality, what Giants players are even going to be on some other teams wish list to make a trade for high end prospects possible
Could you share some thoughts on how you think about the value of pitch framing? Bailey is the most obvious target for a continuation of the "Belt" wars. Is he an okay defense first catcher or actually one of the better players in the league?
I've tried to digest Fangraph's explanation (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/fangraphs-pitch-framing/), but the fact that they can point to one poor defensive catcher where their numbers roughly work out is hardly compelling, and a lot of the rest seems to be just pointing out how well various statistical models correlate, which again, doesn't seem like great proof (then again most of the article goes straight over my head so I'm not a great judge). I fully accept that Bailey has a special skill that makes him a very valuable player, but the actual pitch framing values assigned by a site like Fangraphs feels like layers of assumptions baked on top of each other. Also, if Bailey is carrying so much weight by stealing all those strikes, do we have to then downgrade our assessment of the pitchers' performance on the other end?
Actually, one more... I don't follow other systems at all, how common is it for young pitchers (say before they are 25) to lose velo? (thinking Harrison and Black) And on average how old do pitchers achieve their peak velo / stuff? Thank you!
As a Giants fan, I have tunnel vision on the organization. What do you think other organizations that are doing a better job of developing talent doing that the Giants are not?
i want to piggy back on this question to add, since your main viewing stage seems to be Richmond and the AA Squirrels, what do you see with all the eastern league teams you see that lead you to think, i wish the Giants were better at X.
First, thanks for all you do and can’t wait for another full season of your coverage!
We all know the Giants are short on bats and quite long on young, close to ML-ready arms. Do you still see any trades in that sense being made before the season starts to boost the lineup? Or is this what we go into the season with and figure it out from there?
If Luis Arraez is available, would he make sense for the Giants? He has a very specific skill set that fits Oracle, can take pressure off playing Fitzgerald at 2B, can spell at 1B, and slots in second in the order as a contact guy behind Lee. Or is that not high enough of a priority for the club, at this point?
There's been a lot of bad news in the recent weeks, what are some positive or exciting Giants related stories you're looking forward to this year?
You have previously made an excellent case that our development system (particularly on the hitting side) lacks a unified vision and blueprint for implementation. Looking at the current state of the system, it is hard to argue that the Zaidi era was a failure in terms of transforming our system into a credible strength. It's a bit underwhelming to see our affiliates running back the exact same staffs as last year's. What signs will you look for as evidence that our new regime understands the primacy of transforming our farm system into a strong one? What hires? What visible training methods? What on field metrics will give you rays of hope in this regard?
Need them to start bat speed training organization wide frl.
You often talk about the harm of hitting prospects losing a year. Specifically, I'm thinking of Rayner Arias essentially losing two years - the discourse with Arias seems to be that he's actually damaged by two lost years, rather than just delayed. Could you expound on that? Is it rust that is hard to wash off? Is it that a player has a finite number of years in which they can be learning things like recognizing pitches, and those are being squandered? To the naked eye, it would seem that losing two years of development wouldn't hurt a prospect so much as delay their debut by two years, but it seems clear that's not the case. Would love to better understand why that is.
As always, loving all the insights we’re privileged to get from you Roger! Saw some unsubstantiated social media chatter that Mason Black was trying out the “kick change” grip. Anything you can confirm or deny about that?
Tangentially, I find it interesting and curious how many of the Giants pitchers have found different roads to a particular kind of movement profile on their changeup. At least from what I can tell, Logan Webb, Hayden Birdsong, Landen Roupp, and Spencer Bivens all now throw some version of a power change that has more velocity and drop than the average RHP cambio and significantly less arm side fade. Is this just a funny coincidence? Is it the Giants’ preference for Webb-like cambios filtering down through their dev teams? Are the Giants good at developing this kind of pitch, or am I only wondering that because Daniel Blair and Hayden happened to be offseason training buddies? Hope that wasn’t too many ways to ask the same question, thanks again!
Can you contextualize the departure of Yeshayah Goldfarb? What does his departure mean for the Giants? Could it indicate some level of disagreement in the FO?
I was disappointed to see it, so I was wondering if you had any insight. Thank you!
With the recent trade of Taylor Rogers, Erik Miller seems to be the only left handed reliever on the 26th man. I imagine and hope that they will swing a trade for another lefty before spring training begins. Still, it begs the question, what other lefties do the Giants have in their system who might make that step forward for a relief role on the big league roster this season? Luchessi & Whisenhunt both come to mind although they're both considered starters. Who else is close to winning a spot in the bullpen? Thanks!
I’d like to hear more about Zach Minasian- what he’s like? What you predict his style will be? Is he fully running the day to day? Making the calls on trades, transactions and going to posey for yes or no on all things or certain things? Is Jeremy Shelly mad he’s not the gm- what is his role? Same, increased, decreased? Have you heard much about Bobby Evans being involved?
Wonder if you have any insights on how some of the smaller market teams (Guardians, Brewers, etc.) are able to identify and develop players better than the Giants can? Are there a small number of top guys that are just really good, those teams are willing to spend more on PD, or something else?
Btw, how much mobility is there for staff to move between teams? And would you know if teams like Dodgers or Yankees pay their staff better, or do they hire more people?
In reading about "reliever risk" in the most recent top-50 installment I was wondering: is that risk higher for the international kids compared to those who arrive via the draft? And for those drafted, is that risk higher for a high-school draftee vs a college arm?
Do you think the league may be at the beginning of a change in ownership structure? It’s my understanding the Guggenheim group allows the Dodgers to spend like it does. Is this the future for baseball or pro sports in general?
Is JDJG going to start the year in the ACL or the DSL? Also, what's your view on the "brain drain' that the organization has seen post 2021. Feels like they have lost a lot of highly respected - if not the most respected names in the industry, Bannister Bailey etc. Feels like a lot of organization roles have been left empty after the person occupying them found a new job.
How do you see the Giants stocking the cupboard with high end prospect talent while maintaining an on field team people will pay to see? Keith Law just ranked the Giants farm system 26th. Others have similar views. Posey inherited a nightmare IMHO but at least ownership is willing to spend more than most. But without a farm system that adds depth to backup the major league team, we are looking at another mediocre season at best. I can see a lot of deadline trades in the Giants future but in all reality, what Giants players are even going to be on some other teams wish list to make a trade for high end prospects possible
Hi Roger,
Thanks as always for the great work!
Could you share some thoughts on how you think about the value of pitch framing? Bailey is the most obvious target for a continuation of the "Belt" wars. Is he an okay defense first catcher or actually one of the better players in the league?
I've tried to digest Fangraph's explanation (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/fangraphs-pitch-framing/), but the fact that they can point to one poor defensive catcher where their numbers roughly work out is hardly compelling, and a lot of the rest seems to be just pointing out how well various statistical models correlate, which again, doesn't seem like great proof (then again most of the article goes straight over my head so I'm not a great judge). I fully accept that Bailey has a special skill that makes him a very valuable player, but the actual pitch framing values assigned by a site like Fangraphs feels like layers of assumptions baked on top of each other. Also, if Bailey is carrying so much weight by stealing all those strikes, do we have to then downgrade our assessment of the pitchers' performance on the other end?
Actually, one more... I don't follow other systems at all, how common is it for young pitchers (say before they are 25) to lose velo? (thinking Harrison and Black) And on average how old do pitchers achieve their peak velo / stuff? Thank you!