Am I the only one concerned about the spreadsheet-ization of prospect coverage?
Don't get me wrong, I want the Giants brass to use whatever data is available to make the best decisions for the health of the farm system/strength of the big club.
But when I read/listen to pods about prospects I want to hear poetic descriptions of these young athletes tools /makeup/projection/performance. What I don't need some one reading off literal yearly lists of 6 different prospects' IVB or chase percentages.
Incidentally, what I want is for all prospect coverage to be like your Giants prospect coverage. Gimme a little Roger Angel romance. It's baseball!
One old man to another..I still have all of Roger Angel's books on my bookshelf. I do also like the breakdowns in an attempt to pinpoint various skills. My problem is learning the nomenclature..I need a cheat sheet explaining what they all mean.
One thing I am hearing Eno Sarris and Mike Petriello talking a lot about lately is the importance of bat speed. Namely, that it can make up for a lot of other profile deficiencies. I recall, for example, a discussion about how one of the things that makes Ohtani so good is that his bat speed can make up for swing holes by allowing him to make contact “late in the zone”, or as the ball gets closer to the catcher. Turns out, bat speed seems to be super important. And it’s improvable! To that end, I am curious if you sense this to be important in Giants player development policy. The Red Sox famously were early to weighted bat training and that seems to be working out well for them. As far as I can tell, the Giants don’t have a clear policy to making technical, batting improvements beyond standard approach/strength training goals (or if they do, it’s not clearly working). As a second part to this question, I have observed that the last several international amateur classes have landed players who are either conspicuously short or physically mature for their age. You acknowledged this in your interview with Joe Salermo, but once I had this idea in my mind, I could not help but notice the size of this trend. A lot of 5’10”s and below! Along with this, some of the DSL/ACL players who had success last year seem to be the ones who are physically mature, which both makes me question their upside and place a significant part of their success on their strength rather than on other, more reliable long term indicators. Level, Guzman, Macares, Barreto, Tejada, Alexander, even Velasquez strike me as examples of this. Do you think this is, deliberate or not, a consequence of an altered calculus or ideology? For instance, maybe a renewed focus on contact ability or performance floor (rather than ceiling) in general? To make a final comment on the interconnectedness of these observation, Sarris made the point that bat speed is, while improvable, highly correlated with player height. To my mind, then, it seems like we should be placing more emphasis on traditional measures like height, not less. Anyway, I am curious what you make of these trends individually, as well as their intersection. Thanks!
With the glut of near-MLB arms in Sacramento, what is their perceived value on the trade market, if the Giants feel like they need to plug a hole in their major league roster at some point this season? Will a package of two or three of them be a strong enough offer to bring back an all-star caliber player in return?
Roger - I would like to get your take on your rankings after reading the Down on the Farm analysis of rankings. Any changes you would make or are there players who came to mind as you read through it? I was thinking about the last point about surprise hitter successes and was day dreaming about someone like Syzkowny finding his game power consistently and taking off as a product.
Any guess which one of the Eugene outfielders is most likely to get sent up to Richmond first when it is time to bring Jordan up to Eugene? If they all continue to hit, could we expect it relatively early in summer, or do you think they want to keep Jordan in San Jose all or most of the year.
I watched the first few SJ Giants innings last night, which led me to BRef to learn about Drake George. You alluded to this in today's post, so you won't be surprised that my trip to Drake George's BRef page resulted in me making a few clicks and then spending some good time marveling at Marvin Benard's BRef page: drafted (39th round) out of HS, drafted (20th round) out of CC, and then drafted by the Giants (50th round!) out of Lewis-Clark State College. I have to admit that I wasn't aware that Marvin was a 50th-round success story. Incredible. The mailbag is quite full already for this week, so please feel free to stash this random question for a quieter week. What can you tell me about Marvin Benard's unlikely path to MLB? Any idea if his not signing out of HS and CC was more about an athlete betting on himself, or was he motivated to continue with his studies, perhaps? Are there any other SF Giants 50th-rounders who made the show I should be more aware of?
Hello Roger! Quick question: did I miss the San Jose Giants season preview? I see Eugene Emeralds and Richmond Flying Squirrels (love that nickname, BTW) in my inbox, but nothing for SJ Giants. I assume you are working on the Sacramento Rivercats preview and plan to release it soon? Love these previews--helps me get ready for the TWG MyGuy contest!
Hi John, the SJ one came out the day before the Eugene one did. April 1 I believe. Never did a Sac one because their season started while I was in minor league camp and it’s a little late to preview them after they got started
I must have inadvertently deleted it, since it's not in my There R Giants folder. I can access the roster from the MiLB information pages and then watch their progress. I'm sure you will be giving us good updates before the deadline for the MyGuy contest.
You can also access all of my posts at the Substack site directly (or via the Substack app). Go to ThereRGiants.com and search on San Jose Preview and it should pop right up for you (alternatively you could google it and simply follow the link)
Thanks for linking the down on the farm Substack, it was a great read! After reading it, it seems like Diego Velazquez is the prototype for an underrated prospect that has a strong MLB career. What would a successful season look like for him and how much room does he have to add strength?
One positive (borderline utopia) and one negative way-too-early questions: how long until we can start dreaming again of Vaun Brown, Giants starting OF? And how worried should we be about Walker Martin?
Joe Whitman seems to be battling with his control, feel for pitches and even tweaking his pitch mix, but still got a positive result. How fast do you think he can keep climbing the levels? And realistically, with so many potential starting arms ahead of him, does it take others being traded or failing or could he just force his way?
I might be wrong, but it seems like the most abstract path to the big leagues is that of the relief pitcher (especially ones that aren’t closers). At what level does the guy coming into pitch the 7th in a 4-1 game have a shot at making the big leagues? Is there point where it is beneficial to move a guy out of the rotation or into lower leverage situations before his major league potential is spent? How are the Giants approaching developing relievers, and have there been any shifts in that approach? Big fan of your work, and thanks as always for the mailbag.
I noticed Wade Meckler is active and was listed on Sacramento’s bench on Wednesday night. Do you have an update on how available he is and what the injury was? I just know he was injured trying to steal a base, so imagine it was a jammed finger or something. And while we’re on the subject of injury updates, anything new on Bryce Eldridge?
I know it’s been reported that Randy Winn and Buster Posey want full seasons of development at one level for many of their prospects. But with a few hot starts to the year, I still have to ask: Jairo Pomares to Sacramento, when? James Tibbs to Richmond, when? Dakota Jordan to Eugene, when? Rayner Arias to San Jose, when? All of the outfields seem a bit crowded. But Pomares has played plenty at AA, injuries have probably kept him there, but I imagine if he’s healthy and hitting for power, they’d be quick to promote him if there’s room on the Sac roster. Tibbs and Jordan are college players that I’d like to see move quicker than others if they’re deserving of it with their performances. And I’m eager for Rayner Arias to get to full season ball. I’ll stick with those OFs, but I’d really like to get greedy and ask about potential midseason promotions for Jonah Cox, Bo Davidson, and Lisbel Diaz as well.
Meant to mention this in the question: I’m curious if they’d have to give up on Marco Luciano or Hunter Bishop to start this wave of promotions, just to be able to get everyone playing time. Luciano is still so young, but with 4 OF’s clearly ahead of him in S.F., and more coming behind him, do they pull the plug if his slow start bleeds into May, June, July?
Old man shouting at clouds question:
Am I the only one concerned about the spreadsheet-ization of prospect coverage?
Don't get me wrong, I want the Giants brass to use whatever data is available to make the best decisions for the health of the farm system/strength of the big club.
But when I read/listen to pods about prospects I want to hear poetic descriptions of these young athletes tools /makeup/projection/performance. What I don't need some one reading off literal yearly lists of 6 different prospects' IVB or chase percentages.
Incidentally, what I want is for all prospect coverage to be like your Giants prospect coverage. Gimme a little Roger Angel romance. It's baseball!
AZ
One old man to another..I still have all of Roger Angel's books on my bookshelf. I do also like the breakdowns in an attempt to pinpoint various skills. My problem is learning the nomenclature..I need a cheat sheet explaining what they all mean.
One thing I am hearing Eno Sarris and Mike Petriello talking a lot about lately is the importance of bat speed. Namely, that it can make up for a lot of other profile deficiencies. I recall, for example, a discussion about how one of the things that makes Ohtani so good is that his bat speed can make up for swing holes by allowing him to make contact “late in the zone”, or as the ball gets closer to the catcher. Turns out, bat speed seems to be super important. And it’s improvable! To that end, I am curious if you sense this to be important in Giants player development policy. The Red Sox famously were early to weighted bat training and that seems to be working out well for them. As far as I can tell, the Giants don’t have a clear policy to making technical, batting improvements beyond standard approach/strength training goals (or if they do, it’s not clearly working). As a second part to this question, I have observed that the last several international amateur classes have landed players who are either conspicuously short or physically mature for their age. You acknowledged this in your interview with Joe Salermo, but once I had this idea in my mind, I could not help but notice the size of this trend. A lot of 5’10”s and below! Along with this, some of the DSL/ACL players who had success last year seem to be the ones who are physically mature, which both makes me question their upside and place a significant part of their success on their strength rather than on other, more reliable long term indicators. Level, Guzman, Macares, Barreto, Tejada, Alexander, even Velasquez strike me as examples of this. Do you think this is, deliberate or not, a consequence of an altered calculus or ideology? For instance, maybe a renewed focus on contact ability or performance floor (rather than ceiling) in general? To make a final comment on the interconnectedness of these observation, Sarris made the point that bat speed is, while improvable, highly correlated with player height. To my mind, then, it seems like we should be placing more emphasis on traditional measures like height, not less. Anyway, I am curious what you make of these trends individually, as well as their intersection. Thanks!
Sorry Roger, getting all my questions out!
Any updates on Bryce Eldridge?
With the glut of near-MLB arms in Sacramento, what is their perceived value on the trade market, if the Giants feel like they need to plug a hole in their major league roster at some point this season? Will a package of two or three of them be a strong enough offer to bring back an all-star caliber player in return?
Roger - I would like to get your take on your rankings after reading the Down on the Farm analysis of rankings. Any changes you would make or are there players who came to mind as you read through it? I was thinking about the last point about surprise hitter successes and was day dreaming about someone like Syzkowny finding his game power consistently and taking off as a product.
Any guess which one of the Eugene outfielders is most likely to get sent up to Richmond first when it is time to bring Jordan up to Eugene? If they all continue to hit, could we expect it relatively early in summer, or do you think they want to keep Jordan in San Jose all or most of the year.
Also, Luis Matos has looked very good so far this year and the Giants don’t seem to put any importance on getting him ABs. What’s up with that?
What are your thoughts on the Giants use of Birdsong? Can’t say I understand it.
I watched the first few SJ Giants innings last night, which led me to BRef to learn about Drake George. You alluded to this in today's post, so you won't be surprised that my trip to Drake George's BRef page resulted in me making a few clicks and then spending some good time marveling at Marvin Benard's BRef page: drafted (39th round) out of HS, drafted (20th round) out of CC, and then drafted by the Giants (50th round!) out of Lewis-Clark State College. I have to admit that I wasn't aware that Marvin was a 50th-round success story. Incredible. The mailbag is quite full already for this week, so please feel free to stash this random question for a quieter week. What can you tell me about Marvin Benard's unlikely path to MLB? Any idea if his not signing out of HS and CC was more about an athlete betting on himself, or was he motivated to continue with his studies, perhaps? Are there any other SF Giants 50th-rounders who made the show I should be more aware of?
Hello Roger! Quick question: did I miss the San Jose Giants season preview? I see Eugene Emeralds and Richmond Flying Squirrels (love that nickname, BTW) in my inbox, but nothing for SJ Giants. I assume you are working on the Sacramento Rivercats preview and plan to release it soon? Love these previews--helps me get ready for the TWG MyGuy contest!
Hi John, the SJ one came out the day before the Eugene one did. April 1 I believe. Never did a Sac one because their season started while I was in minor league camp and it’s a little late to preview them after they got started
I must have inadvertently deleted it, since it's not in my There R Giants folder. I can access the roster from the MiLB information pages and then watch their progress. I'm sure you will be giving us good updates before the deadline for the MyGuy contest.
You can also access all of my posts at the Substack site directly (or via the Substack app). Go to ThereRGiants.com and search on San Jose Preview and it should pop right up for you (alternatively you could google it and simply follow the link)
Thanks for linking the down on the farm Substack, it was a great read! After reading it, it seems like Diego Velazquez is the prototype for an underrated prospect that has a strong MLB career. What would a successful season look like for him and how much room does he have to add strength?
One positive (borderline utopia) and one negative way-too-early questions: how long until we can start dreaming again of Vaun Brown, Giants starting OF? And how worried should we be about Walker Martin?
Joe Whitman seems to be battling with his control, feel for pitches and even tweaking his pitch mix, but still got a positive result. How fast do you think he can keep climbing the levels? And realistically, with so many potential starting arms ahead of him, does it take others being traded or failing or could he just force his way?
I might be wrong, but it seems like the most abstract path to the big leagues is that of the relief pitcher (especially ones that aren’t closers). At what level does the guy coming into pitch the 7th in a 4-1 game have a shot at making the big leagues? Is there point where it is beneficial to move a guy out of the rotation or into lower leverage situations before his major league potential is spent? How are the Giants approaching developing relievers, and have there been any shifts in that approach? Big fan of your work, and thanks as always for the mailbag.
I noticed Wade Meckler is active and was listed on Sacramento’s bench on Wednesday night. Do you have an update on how available he is and what the injury was? I just know he was injured trying to steal a base, so imagine it was a jammed finger or something. And while we’re on the subject of injury updates, anything new on Bryce Eldridge?
I know it’s been reported that Randy Winn and Buster Posey want full seasons of development at one level for many of their prospects. But with a few hot starts to the year, I still have to ask: Jairo Pomares to Sacramento, when? James Tibbs to Richmond, when? Dakota Jordan to Eugene, when? Rayner Arias to San Jose, when? All of the outfields seem a bit crowded. But Pomares has played plenty at AA, injuries have probably kept him there, but I imagine if he’s healthy and hitting for power, they’d be quick to promote him if there’s room on the Sac roster. Tibbs and Jordan are college players that I’d like to see move quicker than others if they’re deserving of it with their performances. And I’m eager for Rayner Arias to get to full season ball. I’ll stick with those OFs, but I’d really like to get greedy and ask about potential midseason promotions for Jonah Cox, Bo Davidson, and Lisbel Diaz as well.
Meant to mention this in the question: I’m curious if they’d have to give up on Marco Luciano or Hunter Bishop to start this wave of promotions, just to be able to get everyone playing time. Luciano is still so young, but with 4 OF’s clearly ahead of him in S.F., and more coming behind him, do they pull the plug if his slow start bleeds into May, June, July?