Hi Roger. I've been very impressed with Johnny Level, particularly with his continued progress since the move up to San Jose. How does he compare with Marco Luciano when ge was af this sge/development? He seems a strong contenderto stick at short whilst Marco was already seen by many ad being a future outfielder.
I'll try to keep both my growing cynicism & verbosity in check here. If 2016 taught us anything, it was that things don't have to get better. We watched a wave of offensive prospects fizzle out the last few years, then we pivoted to a wave of young pitchers that were supposed to be the strength of the system, and now they're dangerously close to the same outcome. Realistically, the only pitcher who has done enough to have a spot in next year's rotation is Roupp, and as much promise as he's shown he's finishing the year with a 1.48 WHIP, & I would think the most optimistic projection wouldn't pencil him in for more than 130 innings (thankfully he avoided the worst outcome with his knee injury but I'm assuming he's still likely done for the year) . What happened? Were these kids meaningfully more talented prospects than the Tyler Beedes, Phil Bickfords & Chris Strattons of the world? If so, what's going wrong, & if not what does that say about our drafting & developmental staff, which despite the changes at the top seems to have maintained a good deal of continuity. Can pitching development still reasonably be considered a strength of this organization?
On a related note, it was pretty interesting that Posey made basically the same bet on their young, internal pitching options that Zaidi made last year, and distressing to watch it play out in a remarkably similar fashion. Does that say anything meaningful about the Giant's internal models & projections? Seems like they may be a little off, as you and Kerry were hardly alone in wondering where all the innings would come from this off season, and that was in the best case scenario, which we are obviously not living in.
Seriously, though. When do you think the benefits of a new PoBO on the farm system start to have a real impact on the major league squad? Almost a decade of mediocre baseball and I think the lack of minor league talent has had a lot to do with it.
Something that has struck me recently... It feels like during the Bochy/Sabean/Evans years — even in the rough ones at the end — the Giants had a ton of young hitters who came out of the gates hot after reaching the big leagues for the first time. Even if those guys (often) didn't maintain that level of success, Brandon Crawford, Brett Pill, Juan Perez, Joe Panik, Kelby Tomlinson, Austin Slater, Steven Duggar and Aramis Garcia, among others, jump out as guys who were called up and immediately put together competitive at-bats. In contrast, it seems like there have been very, very few hitters who have come up since 2019 and looked like they were ready for the big leagues — Jaylin Davis, Joe McCarthy, Bryce Johnson, Ford Proctor, Mike Papierski, Heliot Ramos, Brett Wisely, Wade Meckler, Trenton Brooks, and most recently Christian Koss and Drew Gilbert. Obviously, some of those guys have since developed into solid or better major league players, but the early struggles seem to be a clear pattern, even if there's the occasional outlier like Casey Schmitt. Do you think there's an issue with preparation and game planning here, or does it have more to do with improved pitching and Triple-A video and data that opponents didn't necessarily have access to during the 2010s?
I cannot say I was moved when the Giants traded Jacob Lopez for Joe McCarthy in 2019... I had been a fan of McCarthy in Tampa's system (and was excited about having a guy we could nickname "The Red Scare" if he ever turned good). Six years later, though, it feels like it could be one of the worst trades of the Farhan Zaidi era — and maybe one of the Giants' worst of the 21st century if he keeps this up. Do you feel like there was a serious misevaluation here on the Giants' part, or is this one of those situations where we just have to give the A's (and Rays) credit for making Lopez better?
If a time traveler told you that in five years’ time, the Giants would have four relievers generally set for the late innings and that each player is currently in the Giants’ system, but not on the 26-man roster, who is our time traveler referring to (they dropped “whom” in the future)?
Hi Roger. I've been very impressed with Johnny Level, particularly with his continued progress since the move up to San Jose. How does he compare with Marco Luciano when ge was af this sge/development? He seems a strong contenderto stick at short whilst Marco was already seen by many ad being a future outfielder.
Thanks as always for your work Roger.
I'll try to keep both my growing cynicism & verbosity in check here. If 2016 taught us anything, it was that things don't have to get better. We watched a wave of offensive prospects fizzle out the last few years, then we pivoted to a wave of young pitchers that were supposed to be the strength of the system, and now they're dangerously close to the same outcome. Realistically, the only pitcher who has done enough to have a spot in next year's rotation is Roupp, and as much promise as he's shown he's finishing the year with a 1.48 WHIP, & I would think the most optimistic projection wouldn't pencil him in for more than 130 innings (thankfully he avoided the worst outcome with his knee injury but I'm assuming he's still likely done for the year) . What happened? Were these kids meaningfully more talented prospects than the Tyler Beedes, Phil Bickfords & Chris Strattons of the world? If so, what's going wrong, & if not what does that say about our drafting & developmental staff, which despite the changes at the top seems to have maintained a good deal of continuity. Can pitching development still reasonably be considered a strength of this organization?
On a related note, it was pretty interesting that Posey made basically the same bet on their young, internal pitching options that Zaidi made last year, and distressing to watch it play out in a remarkably similar fashion. Does that say anything meaningful about the Giant's internal models & projections? Seems like they may be a little off, as you and Kerry were hardly alone in wondering where all the innings would come from this off season, and that was in the best case scenario, which we are obviously not living in.
When does it get better??!!
Seriously, though. When do you think the benefits of a new PoBO on the farm system start to have a real impact on the major league squad? Almost a decade of mediocre baseball and I think the lack of minor league talent has had a lot to do with it.
Something that has struck me recently... It feels like during the Bochy/Sabean/Evans years — even in the rough ones at the end — the Giants had a ton of young hitters who came out of the gates hot after reaching the big leagues for the first time. Even if those guys (often) didn't maintain that level of success, Brandon Crawford, Brett Pill, Juan Perez, Joe Panik, Kelby Tomlinson, Austin Slater, Steven Duggar and Aramis Garcia, among others, jump out as guys who were called up and immediately put together competitive at-bats. In contrast, it seems like there have been very, very few hitters who have come up since 2019 and looked like they were ready for the big leagues — Jaylin Davis, Joe McCarthy, Bryce Johnson, Ford Proctor, Mike Papierski, Heliot Ramos, Brett Wisely, Wade Meckler, Trenton Brooks, and most recently Christian Koss and Drew Gilbert. Obviously, some of those guys have since developed into solid or better major league players, but the early struggles seem to be a clear pattern, even if there's the occasional outlier like Casey Schmitt. Do you think there's an issue with preparation and game planning here, or does it have more to do with improved pitching and Triple-A video and data that opponents didn't necessarily have access to during the 2010s?
I cannot say I was moved when the Giants traded Jacob Lopez for Joe McCarthy in 2019... I had been a fan of McCarthy in Tampa's system (and was excited about having a guy we could nickname "The Red Scare" if he ever turned good). Six years later, though, it feels like it could be one of the worst trades of the Farhan Zaidi era — and maybe one of the Giants' worst of the 21st century if he keeps this up. Do you feel like there was a serious misevaluation here on the Giants' part, or is this one of those situations where we just have to give the A's (and Rays) credit for making Lopez better?
If a time traveler told you that in five years’ time, the Giants would have four relievers generally set for the late innings and that each player is currently in the Giants’ system, but not on the 26-man roster, who is our time traveler referring to (they dropped “whom” in the future)?
Gauging Prospect Growth
I like your idea of using K-BB% for pitchers.
For Hitters, what could I look at besides or in addition to wRC+?