Did you observe any changes in draft philosophy compared to prior years? It seemed pretty similar the draft under Zaidi (and Holmes) and despite all the talk of favoring scouting seemed to go dudes who were analytical favorites.
Hello Roger! Hope it's been a productive and enjoyable trip to the Dominican Republic. A few questions/thoughts about this year's draft class:
1) After signing, do you think any of them will play in our organization this year? I think as a rule most new draftees don't play professionally that first summer (they've just completed a season in HS or college), but we know some do.
2) Assuming the maximum number of MiLB players remains at 165, any thoughts on players who might be released (as happened to Jairo Pomares and Vaun Brown) to make room for the new guys? I respect that you probably can't/won't mention specific players, but whatever thoughts you can share would be of interest.
3) Any early thoughts on which draftees might develop into rising stars or at least fast breakouts? Any player you might see as a dark horse to surprise and rise through the system quickly?
Hey Roger. Obviously, actually being able to put wood on a baseball is a crucial skill for any prospect, and Giants have no shortage of hit-tool-challenged players who otherwise could be studs (Luciano, McCray, etc). I'm just wondering how often you've seen prospects like this make substantial improvements? Have you seen any/many encouraging examples, even outside the organization, of former whiff-meisters who finally figured it out? Or is this just usually a hand/eye coordination thing that you kind of have or you don't?
Do you have any thoughts or speculations on the upcoming trade deadline? Buster and co. have been pretty proactive so far making moves...and some notable prospects are getting older or running out of minor league options. Seems like we could see some action!
I’ll add a 2nd question but feel free to skip it given the overall number of questions. What’s the future path for Brown and Pomares? Is there one at another organization due to the hype they once had or are their pro baseball careers likely over given the length of their struggles?
My question is regarding how the players are found by the scouts. Is the game of baseball so prevalent and popular that most youngsters have a great chance to play in their towns, schools etc. and the scout travels around looking for talent on ball fields? Or is a pickup baseball game fairly rare (like it is in the US, at least where I live) and the scout is more looking for exceptional athleticism and HE steers the kid towards baseball?
1) Given their age, experience, and reputation it seemed like the first handful of draft picks this year might be underslot to try and take a HS hitter later. But then all of the non-first round HS players got drafted anyway—by other teams (like Alec Blair and Mason Ligenza, who unfortunately was taken by the Dodgers). It seems far more likely that the Giants weren’t targeting one of those players anyway given they had the chance to pick them and didn’t. In that context, it really seems they shot themselves in the foot with compensation pick management (I think this happens to be an underrated problem with the recent front offices). Anyway, do you expect most of the first few picks to be under-slot? Do you think they were targeting a HS player who was drafted elsewhere? If not, it seems pretty hard to justify taking the players they did at the picks they did from a naive draft-ranking perspective. Obviously, if the player succeeds it doesn’t matter. So the explanation is that they think Cohen, for example, can just be that good? I’m sorry, I just don’t buy that.
2) What do you think it says about the organization that so many players were taken from the northeast? Presumably there is one area scout with a loud voice. But it strikes me as a potential problem that a single perspective has so much authority? It would be one thing if that voice had a long track record of success, but as far as I can tell, they don’t.
3) Michael Holmes came over with Farhan, but didn’t leave with Farhan. What do you think the Giants see in his track record to justify keeping him in charge? On what grounds do you think any organization decides to move on from its draft team, if not from an a fortiori regime change justification?
4) I notice in your posts you largely refrain from injecting your personal opinions on certain players when they are negative. Fair enough! But you did express your opinion that the Giants ought to be taking big, high upside, swings in your pre-draft post. I happen to agree with you. I suppose we are both disappointed then that the Giants seem to have the exact opposite view. If you think there is an objective sense in which high upside picks are good for the Giants, presumably you therefore dislike this draft in an objective sense. If so, do you feel it is not your place to say so? Such criticism would be consistent with refraining from judgements about individual players. And why do you think the Giants feel this way, given that the paradigmatic example of the upside play pick is carrying most of the system right now?
Edit: Wanted to add that I remember now whose swing Jhonny Level’s reminds me of. Ketel Marte!
Hi Roger. After a few years of wondering if he'd make it Heliot has become a fixture for the Giants. Do you think the Giants can get a similar return from Marco if they allow him more time to develop in the outfield or is it too late?
Really enjoyed your updates from the DSL...hopefully you will be back there one day. My question is about Jose Astudillo. He is an 18 y/o, batting .430 after 100 ab's in the ACL. Was he a tough omission from the Top 35? If the Giants were to sign Yandro Hernandez in the 2026 IFA class, it would seem that between Astudillo, Josuar & Level, there would be a decent trade package to be built around one of them
Hi Roger, could you provide a deeper analysis of Josuar De Jesus Gonzalez? Scouting reports from many sources, including yourself, are very positive about him, but he’s batting below .250 (with a fairly typical BABIP). From what I can see, the only standout aspect is his speed and stolen bases.
I realize that half a season isn’t a large sample, and it’s possible he’s working on specific adjustments. However, based on surface-level numbers, his performance seems "okay" rather than "great." Can you help explain how we should interpret his season so far?
I'd be really interested in whether you were able to glean any views on how the Giants DSL set up is perceived by other orgs down there. It really seems that over the past couple of years that the Dominican clubs/international scouting have been the best performing 'business unit' within the Giants, as shown not only by winning records but also by the fact that the highest ranked prospects are joining (Josuar this year, plus the rumours for the future). There seems to be a virtuous circle going on down there! Am I reading too much into this? Is there a view in the industry as to whether the Giants are 'best in class' at what they are doing?
You often talk (and we see on the field) about the need for twitchiness, athleticism, in the Giants system. That doesn’t seem to be the case with Kilen and Cohen, but are there other draftees - position players or pitchers - that bring those things?
Can you see Roxby in the Show this year?
Did you observe any changes in draft philosophy compared to prior years? It seemed pretty similar the draft under Zaidi (and Holmes) and despite all the talk of favoring scouting seemed to go dudes who were analytical favorites.
Hello Roger! Hope it's been a productive and enjoyable trip to the Dominican Republic. A few questions/thoughts about this year's draft class:
1) After signing, do you think any of them will play in our organization this year? I think as a rule most new draftees don't play professionally that first summer (they've just completed a season in HS or college), but we know some do.
2) Assuming the maximum number of MiLB players remains at 165, any thoughts on players who might be released (as happened to Jairo Pomares and Vaun Brown) to make room for the new guys? I respect that you probably can't/won't mention specific players, but whatever thoughts you can share would be of interest.
3) Any early thoughts on which draftees might develop into rising stars or at least fast breakouts? Any player you might see as a dark horse to surprise and rise through the system quickly?
Hey Roger. Obviously, actually being able to put wood on a baseball is a crucial skill for any prospect, and Giants have no shortage of hit-tool-challenged players who otherwise could be studs (Luciano, McCray, etc). I'm just wondering how often you've seen prospects like this make substantial improvements? Have you seen any/many encouraging examples, even outside the organization, of former whiff-meisters who finally figured it out? Or is this just usually a hand/eye coordination thing that you kind of have or you don't?
Do you have any thoughts or speculations on the upcoming trade deadline? Buster and co. have been pretty proactive so far making moves...and some notable prospects are getting older or running out of minor league options. Seems like we could see some action!
I’ll add a 2nd question but feel free to skip it given the overall number of questions. What’s the future path for Brown and Pomares? Is there one at another organization due to the hype they once had or are their pro baseball careers likely over given the length of their struggles?
My question is regarding how the players are found by the scouts. Is the game of baseball so prevalent and popular that most youngsters have a great chance to play in their towns, schools etc. and the scout travels around looking for talent on ball fields? Or is a pickup baseball game fairly rare (like it is in the US, at least where I live) and the scout is more looking for exceptional athleticism and HE steers the kid towards baseball?
I love Scouting Talk. I think they should get more credit.
To specify, I am referring to the players who make it to the Dominican complex.
1) Given their age, experience, and reputation it seemed like the first handful of draft picks this year might be underslot to try and take a HS hitter later. But then all of the non-first round HS players got drafted anyway—by other teams (like Alec Blair and Mason Ligenza, who unfortunately was taken by the Dodgers). It seems far more likely that the Giants weren’t targeting one of those players anyway given they had the chance to pick them and didn’t. In that context, it really seems they shot themselves in the foot with compensation pick management (I think this happens to be an underrated problem with the recent front offices). Anyway, do you expect most of the first few picks to be under-slot? Do you think they were targeting a HS player who was drafted elsewhere? If not, it seems pretty hard to justify taking the players they did at the picks they did from a naive draft-ranking perspective. Obviously, if the player succeeds it doesn’t matter. So the explanation is that they think Cohen, for example, can just be that good? I’m sorry, I just don’t buy that.
2) What do you think it says about the organization that so many players were taken from the northeast? Presumably there is one area scout with a loud voice. But it strikes me as a potential problem that a single perspective has so much authority? It would be one thing if that voice had a long track record of success, but as far as I can tell, they don’t.
3) Michael Holmes came over with Farhan, but didn’t leave with Farhan. What do you think the Giants see in his track record to justify keeping him in charge? On what grounds do you think any organization decides to move on from its draft team, if not from an a fortiori regime change justification?
4) I notice in your posts you largely refrain from injecting your personal opinions on certain players when they are negative. Fair enough! But you did express your opinion that the Giants ought to be taking big, high upside, swings in your pre-draft post. I happen to agree with you. I suppose we are both disappointed then that the Giants seem to have the exact opposite view. If you think there is an objective sense in which high upside picks are good for the Giants, presumably you therefore dislike this draft in an objective sense. If so, do you feel it is not your place to say so? Such criticism would be consistent with refraining from judgements about individual players. And why do you think the Giants feel this way, given that the paradigmatic example of the upside play pick is carrying most of the system right now?
Edit: Wanted to add that I remember now whose swing Jhonny Level’s reminds me of. Ketel Marte!
Good questions!
Excuse me if you already answered this but, what guess would you have on the increasing difficulty at each Development Level?
That is, does a player at one level last year who moved up one level this year and produces the same wRC+ deserve credit for Improving?
That is a clear Yes, but How Much of an improvement? My rule of thumb is 25% in these levels.
HS => NAIA => NCAA => DSL/CPX => A
Hi Roger. After a few years of wondering if he'd make it Heliot has become a fixture for the Giants. Do you think the Giants can get a similar return from Marco if they allow him more time to develop in the outfield or is it too late?
Are you the MikeH in MyGuy™?
Yes indeed - especially if I'm thd one with zero points!
Luciano?
Uhh...what happened to that Richmond bunch? They been smoking hot! Did I somehow I miss the move they made that turned the corner? Or what?
Really enjoyed your updates from the DSL...hopefully you will be back there one day. My question is about Jose Astudillo. He is an 18 y/o, batting .430 after 100 ab's in the ACL. Was he a tough omission from the Top 35? If the Giants were to sign Yandro Hernandez in the 2026 IFA class, it would seem that between Astudillo, Josuar & Level, there would be a decent trade package to be built around one of them
Hi Roger, could you provide a deeper analysis of Josuar De Jesus Gonzalez? Scouting reports from many sources, including yourself, are very positive about him, but he’s batting below .250 (with a fairly typical BABIP). From what I can see, the only standout aspect is his speed and stolen bases.
I realize that half a season isn’t a large sample, and it’s possible he’s working on specific adjustments. However, based on surface-level numbers, his performance seems "okay" rather than "great." Can you help explain how we should interpret his season so far?
Hi Rog and welcome back.
I'd be really interested in whether you were able to glean any views on how the Giants DSL set up is perceived by other orgs down there. It really seems that over the past couple of years that the Dominican clubs/international scouting have been the best performing 'business unit' within the Giants, as shown not only by winning records but also by the fact that the highest ranked prospects are joining (Josuar this year, plus the rumours for the future). There seems to be a virtuous circle going on down there! Am I reading too much into this? Is there a view in the industry as to whether the Giants are 'best in class' at what they are doing?
Welcome back, Rog! Thanks for all the DR content!
You often talk (and we see on the field) about the need for twitchiness, athleticism, in the Giants system. That doesn’t seem to be the case with Kilen and Cohen, but are there other draftees - position players or pitchers - that bring those things?