The Return of the WEEKLY Free For All Mailbag

What do we want? Regularly scheduled mailbags! When do we want them?.....uh, regularly!

Photo Credit: Kevin Cunningham | Giant Futures

There R Giants’ post office was shuttered last week, as the executive board, including the post-master general, took a company retreat (in other words, my wife and I enjoyed a long weekend away).

But starting today, we should get back on our weekly schedule of questions and answers — and my goodness, do you folks have questions you want answered! From the inevitable injury update questions to a lot of big picture questions on development. Strap in, because it’s gonna be another long one — and a pretty chunky one, I think, as I strive to provide some answers and hopefully important context.

There’s a lot to get to today, so let’s jump right in.

KC

What is happening with Wade Meckler?

Ah, let’s ease our way into the pool today with a relatively easy one — at least I think it’s an easy one. Meckler was hit on the hand with a pitch in the San Francisco-Sacramento exhibition game just before the season started. He was placed on the IL almost immediately thereafter and hasn’t played yet this year. My assumption — and this is only an assumption, but it seems like a reasonable one — is that he suffered a broken bone somewhere in the hand region on that HBP. That’s normally a 6 to 8-week injury timeline, and then maybe a little more if the player needs to get into baseball shape before being game ready. I will note, however, that Eric Longenhagen at Fangraphs, wrote in his Giants’ rankings that came out just last Friday that Meckler’s issue was a wrist sprain. I’m a little skeptical that that is the full story just because the timing of his IL stint relative to being hit on the hand in that exhibition makes some kind of trauma from the event much more likely to my mind. Of course, it’s entirely possible that both are true.

Either way, I’d suspect we won’t see Meckler until sometime near the end of May or beginning of June? And, it’s probably worth noting here that if that’s the case, he might be in a situation where a 40-man roster move could be solved by placing him on the 60-day IL. Teams don’t always love doing that, because it means paying major league minimum salary to a player who isn’t in the majors (and thus, it has CBT implications), but it’s a possibility.

Henrique Gonçalves

Loved the new weekend format! The 4x4 was perfect to follow along!

Any updates on Rayner Arias and Walker Martin or any idea when could we expect an update? And who seems too low or too high in your preseason Top 50 so far? Thanks for all you work!

Validation! One of one thumbs up means I’m keeping it (unless I get another comment coming in with a Nay vote)!

Both Arias and Walker were kept back in extended and so should be part of the complex team. I’m planning on catching a week of ACL action in mid-May, so hopefully I’ll be bringing you some boots on the ground coverage of their first games this year. However, that same Fangraphs post noted above included unwelcome injury updates for both players suffered in extended spring games — Arias once again hurt his wrist diving for a ball (Eric says Giants’ officials have relayed that it’s just a sprain this time) and Walker has a hamstring issue. So maybe I was wrong to want to hurry out for an early week of ACL action and will catch neither of them? That would be highly annoying!

[As an aside, Eric also noted in that piece that the Giants are suffering from such a huge organizational wave of pitcher injuries that they haven’t actually been able to play that many extended games, and that this is likely to continue to be an issue once the ACL starts, where teams can’t just “roll” innings and have to play games at least to their 7-inning entirety. A big rehab group of mostly pitchers was something I noted in my Camp Notes in March].

As for your last question, yes it does seem the right time to take another look at that list, doesn’t it? With the benefit of a couple of months of new data, I’d say the most obvious “too low” guy for me is probably Carson Ragsdale, who is healthy and throwing well at a level that is appropriate for his age. There’s still plenty of work to do, of course, but if I’d have known he’d be a productive member of the Richmond rotation at this point, I’d have had him a good deal higher. I noted in the Top 50 wrap up that I was already regretting omitting Jack Choate. I’m dubious that he’s really a starter long term, but he’s still a guy who should have been in the 50 somewhere, and maybe not just the tail end of it, either.

I’d probably nudge Erik Miller up as well. Certainly he should go above Randy Rodriguez, for instance, since the two share strengths and weaknesses, and Miller has the benefit of being left-handed. And I’d probably push Maui Ahuna up a bit, too (though not too far, given a lot of unknowns), and find a place for Quinn McDaniel, who was one of my last cuts, on the list. Lastly, as I said in yesterday’s weekend wrap, Clay Helvey is surging up the reliever depth charts in my eyes, after struggling through a difficult 2023. I don’t feel bad for not including him my Top 50, but he’s a name that I want people to know right now, because it’s possible he could be about to pop in a Ryan Walker sort of way.

Too high? Had I known the health situations of Aeverson Arteaga (thoracic outlet surgery), Gerelmi Maldonado (Tommy John surgery) and Spencer Miles (continuing back issues and some sort of elbow strain), I’d likely have put them lower on my list. But so many of these things involve health — which is, as noted, a serious issue with the organization right now — as opposed to baseball development, so I don’t really think about any of them as “misses.” Patrick Bailey was a missed baseball evaluation on my part — almost certainly the worst in my time with this site. This year’s misses mostly revolve around the vagaries of health.

jazz_case

Any idea what kind of home schedule the River Cats are going to have next season since the Athletics will be moving into Sutter Health Park for, I assume, 81 home games?

I have absolutely no idea what the River Cats’ home schedule is likely to look like in the coming years — and I’m almost 100% sure that I have that in common with the River Cats’ management, the Giants, and probably MLB as well. Right now, there’s a chain of events about 1,000 links long that has to take place in order to get Sutter Health Park ready to be a major league venue by 2025, when the A’s — and the other 29 MLB clubs — are supposed to play there. The very last link in that chain is going to be figuring out what to do about the River Cats’ games. Giants’ officials I’ve spoken with (very briefly) not only have no insight into what’s to come, but also no real sense of the timeline of when they will. MLB, the players’ union, and the River Cats’ ownership all have their priorities focused elsewhere right now obviously (where the money is), and until that’s no longer true, there’s little sense in speculating about how the River Cats will fit into the changing situation.

I think there’s some sense in the Giants’ organization that there could ultimately be some benefits that come out of the situation in terms of facilities upgrades. But how much Giants’ minor leaguers will get to enjoy those upgrades, or when, is entirely unknown at this point. I would imagine that will continue to be true for many months. Color me skeptical that the River Cats will get to enjoy anything close to a normal home schedule — or that this situation will only last for three years.

MCS

I’m a huge fan of Tyler Fitzgerald, especially after you noted he and Ismael Munguia are high character individuals. Tyler’s being developed to play 6 positions. Some positions he’s rarely/never played. He’s also served as position pitcher 2x. Is it asking too much of any rookie to learn so many positions at MLB level? Fans are already blaming him for errors/mental mistakes. Afraid if he’s sent down, fans will think he’s “failed.”

I can add to that list of high-quality individuals! I won’t try to start listing players who have impressed me with their friendliness, generosity, or thoughtfulness — because I’d by necessity leave many deserving candidates out, but if you are a devotee of the podcast, you’ve probably formed your opinion on many of them by now.

But anyway, back to your actual question, I guess I will just say that I try to avoid the whole “some people say….” topic because, let’s face it, the negative voices are always going to be the loudest ones in any situation and given any outcome. That’s not to say that the same people are always negative about any situation (though in some cases that might be true as well), but that whoever does hold the negative opinion manages to drown out the rest of the conversation, it seems.

I think you’re right that some of Fitzgerald’s defensive miscues no doubt stem from trying to wear so many gloves — it’s hard to get in enough work at all of those positions to develop the necessary comfort level. Of course, part no doubt stems from the normal rookie “do I belong here?” nervousness as well.

All that said, Tyler knows perfectly well that versatility holds the key to a sustained career in the bigs for him. He said as much when he appeared on my podcast more than a year ago. Yes, it’s difficult. But it’s also his best chance to separate himself from others and grab a role that he can hold onto. When it comes right down to it, ANYTHING you ask of a rookie is “too much” in a very real sense. But passing that trial by fire is the only way to gain access to the career they have set their sights set on. There’s no “easy” way to obtain this treasure.

There R Giants Pod-117 with Tyler Fitzgerald

MikeH

Whilst I'm excited about the numbers of prospect arms getting an opportunity, I'm also concerned that the likes of Landen Roupp and Kai-Wei Teng will not be developed as starters, which will potentially impede their progress. Are the Giants not better suited to using Nick Avila, Randy Rodriguez etc if they are looking more at 1/2 innings?

I put Mike’s question next to MC5’s because they seem to be spiritual companions in a way. The great Ron Wotus, answering a similar sort of question on Marty Lurie’s pregame yesterday, put it perfectly: “[MLB] is a performance league, it’s not a development league.” The Giants, like nearly all major league clubs, are focused on results. They’ve spent a lot of money and time and resources to put together a roster they think capable of taking them to the post-season this year — and that’s the objective that drives their roster decisions.

So the only real question I think they’re focused on is: can a guy get us outs. ‘Role’ is a far less important lens through which to look than ‘outs.’ And, for what it’s worth, looking through that lens, neither Roupp nor Teng (nor Avila) has exactly proved themselves to be big leaguers quite yet. Teng has always worked as a starter and absorbed big innings totals, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him move fairly seamlessly back into that role now that he’s back in Sacramento. Roupp might be a different story, as I can see him moving back and forth this year between the two bullpens, but I don’t think it would be all that difficult to stretch him back out at some point in the future if they wanted to go in that direction (though keeping him stretched out proved to be something of a challenge last year).

My guess is that if you asked either of them their preference, they’d want to be a big leaguer in whatever role is asked of them. And once they prove they belong at that level (which I would say neither has as of yet), then the issue of role can become more of a front-burner question.

Dennis Touros

If my research is correct, former Giant first baseman Frankie Tostado is out of baseball. How does he compare to Logan Wyatt as a prospect at relatively the same point in their careers? Logan is still with the Giants organization, albeit in AA. 

Frankie isn’t out of baseball just yet, but he is out of affiliated ball. I believe he’s signed to play with the Kansas City Monarchs in the independent American Association. Though Tostado came into pro ball earlier (he was part of the Giants’ 2017 draft), he’s actually a few months younger than Wyatt, so it’s not easy to line their careers up on a parallel path. Tostado came out of a junior college environment — and was more of a football player than baseball while in high school. Wyatt, on the other hand, played at a very high D1 level with one of the finest baseball programs in the NCAA at Louisville.

Disparate paths aside, the two players really couldn’t be more different. Tostado is a very free-swinger with a solid contact ability, but limited plate discipline and probably less raw power than you want from a 1b. His approach always made him a tough fit in the Zaidi-led Giants’ organization, which helps explain why the organization never seemed to prioritize his development that much. He was pushed aggressively from Low-A to Double-A in a way that seemed to have more to do with where other players were assigned than what was best for him, and a year later he was left available in the minor league portion of the Rule 5 draft.

Wyatt is the total opposite as a hitter. Where Tostado was quick, athletic, and a ball of energy in the field and at the plate, Wyatt is very big, powerful, and extremely patient at the plate — almost to the point of passivity in his earlier years. He’s done a good job of trying to make the transition to be a little more aggressive in an attempt to get to his raw power, and his best-case outcome is a sort of walks and power 1b type. He’s off to a slow start this year, but 2023 was the best season of his career, and hopefully he can build off of those gains. Wyatt isn’t the athlete or defender at 1b that Tostado was, so he’s going to go as far as his bat can carry him ultimately.

Trevor York

I've lived in Norfolk for the last 7 years and I've really enjoyed watching the Orioles prospects roll through here. They really have an exciting young team. Conversely, watching the Norfolk Tides has reminded me how truly abysmal the Giants' farm system has been at producing above average to great position players. It seems like they've had a number of big prospects, but just aren't able to get them past the finish line. I know they hired Pete Putilla, who had great success with the Astros. But has the front office made any organizational changes within the minors to improve their player development, particularly on the position player front? E.g. hitting labs, new coaches, analytics, etc.

Not to pick on Trevor at all here — his question has a validity that I will get to in a moment — but it feels to me as if Patrick Bailey has somehow become an invisible man among Giants’ fans who want to complain about the team’s hitter development. Bailey was, by some metrics, the most valuable defender in MLB last year, and his offensive struggles in the second half can be connected easily to workload and fatigue. While April flowers wither in May, and thus it’s always been in baseball, it’s worth noting that Bailey has, so far in 2024, been a better player on both sides of the ball than the Orioles far more acclaimed Adley Rutschman.

Bailey probably won’t end up with the offensive numbers he currently has — it’s a long season and nowhere more so than behind the plate. But he has room for a lot of regression in that offensive performance that could still leave him as one of the best catchers in baseball, and if he were to stick at something like a 120 wRC+ as a hitter, then I’d guess he’d be the best at his position in the game — and one of the most productive players overall. That’s a pretty hefty caveat to be putting on the club’s “struggles,” so I’m not sure that “abysmal” is quite the word we’re looking for here.

I mention this because I think it’s human nature to focus obsessively on failures while taking successes as somehow just an unnoticed given. So last year, while Logan Webb was steam-rolling to a 2nd place MVP vote and Camilo Doval was growing into one of the game’s best closers, I was still being asked when the club was going to develop impact players.

And with that little soap-box harangue over, let’s get to Trevor’s point, because it is true that the hitting side of the shop hasn’t been working quite as effectively as the pitching side the last few years (and being in Norfolk, which has been home to the most extraordinary player development successes in the game the last few years, is certainly going to drive that point home).

The Giants have certainly made all of the changes Trevor mentions and many more. As I’ve written about in the past, the behind-the-scenes development staff has mushroomed greatly over the past few years. The staff has grown in just about every area: from R&D and data analysts to strength and conditioning coaches to nutritionists to mental skills to biomechanics experts. The coaching staffs have seen massive, nearly total turnover since Zaidi and Farm Director Kyle Haines took over, and the team has, I believe, been strong at individualizing player plans and prioritizing every player’s development. And they’ve hired people who proved to be desirable within the industry, as we’ve seen quite a few members of the Giants’ PD staff leave to pursue new opportunities with other clubs (Michael Brdar, Matt Daniels, and others).

Last week, my fellow DC-izen, the WaPO’s Chelsea Janes, was reporting on Orioles’ GM Mike Elias’ comments when it was announced that the struggling Jackson Holiday would be sent down. There were several comments that Janes reported that I think are worth repeating here. First, she noted that Elias was remarkably open about how hard it is to make the right evaluation as to when players are actually ready to try the big leagues — and how easy it is for people in his position to get those calls wrong:

And then secondly, she noted that one area where the Orioles have really had success is in getting players over that last hurdle — which Elias and most everyone in the industry believes has gotten much harder over the past few years.

That is a place where the Giants really have struggled the last couple of years — and given that development at the major league level was a point of emphasis for Gabe Kapler (the one time Farm Director for the LA Dodgers), it’s possibly one of the biggest reasons why he and much of his staff are now “former” rather than “current.” They weren’t able to find those specific adjustments that would have helped the Schmitts, Matoses, Mecklers, and Lucianos adjust and survive at the level.

I say all of this because I want to impress on people how complex all of this is, and how likely it is to get it wrong. It’s really hard to determine how much credit or blame for development success or failure to assign to a team or a player or to circumstances. When those Astros were turning Framber Valder, Cristian Javier, Luis Garcia, and others into found gold, it appeared that they had the magic touch. But waves of much more highly touted pitching prospects behind that group have now failed to materialize, and the 2024 Astros are suffering greatly from that failure. Did the org lose its magic touch, or was it never quite as magic as it appeared at the time? How much of development is skill and good processes and how much is fortune and good circumstances? That is a question with no clear answer.

The Giants have been doing extremely well on the pitching side of the shop (Webb, Doval, Kyle Harrison, Keaton Winn, Tyler Rogers, Ryan Walker, Tristan Beck etc.), but hitting continues to prove a difficult bar for the organization to cross over. They’ve now gotten close to nothing out of the 2nd overall pick in a draft, and if Joey Bart turns into the impact bat they hoped for on somebody else’s watch, that’s the kind of thing that can make teams squirm a bit. We’ve also seen Heliot Ramos, Luis Matos, and Marco Luciano all, to some degree or another, lose some momentum in their development as they’ve reached the upper levels, and the more that keeps happening, the more concerning it will become. Two’s a coincidence, three’s a trend, as the saying goes.

I don’t think anybody really knows what the answer to this is, but I’m certain that some level of frustration is felt within the organization. And I think everybody would agree that this can’t continue long-term. They have to get some wins on the position player side of things — it’s simply not a viable organizational strategy to try to piece together a major league lineup every year off of the free agent market. And with many of their top prospects of the past few years sitting at the highest minor league level, it would seem that this is the year that they either get some of those breakthrough victories….or real questions have to be asked about why they aren’t happening. But I just want to repeat that it’s incredibly difficult to assign causality to an area that is so poorly understood to begin with, and involves such a complex weave of talents and other factors to come together successfully.

Some part of the answer is continued patience — you never know how long it will take for things to click in for some players — as well as, you know, keeping the successes in mind as well.

Evelyn

The major league players have had an issue with hitting fastballs stretching back to last year. Nearly all of the rookies (Casey, Wisely, Matos, Luci, Ramos) were all subpar against fastballs last year according to run value. I know part of that is just rookies looking bad when they come up, but I can't help but feel there's something else going on. Any insight on what the hitting development is doing to address hitting fastballs, or is this just something you'd expect to even out as players see more major-league stuff?

I wanted to put Evelyn’s question right after Trevor’s, because I do think that there is something to what she asks that could connect to the troubles mentioned above.

To begin trying to answer, this seems like a great place to mention one of my favorite cool tools, Baseball Savant’s minor league Statcast search page. This tool will search a lot of the same analytics that we’re becoming used to looking at for major league performances — but with the massive caveat that it only accounts for leagues that have publicly available Statcast data (which is just the two Triple-A leagues plus the Florida State League).

There are a lot of things you can do with this tool, however. For instance, as a first step towards answering your question, I ran a query for all batters’ performance against fastballs above 94 mph in velocity for the 2023-24 seasons, grouped by organization, like so:

I ran this same query, sorting by a variety of metrics — SLG, xSLG, EV, wOBA, and others — and I also played around with the data set, going back to 2022 and 2021, or cutting off at 2021. It’s pretty clear that in terms of impacting the ball, the Giants were performing well below most of their peers last year. Using this query, they were 24th in SLG, 19th in xSLG, 25th in both Barrels (which is a Statcast figure that combines Exit Velocity and ideal Launch Angle) and average Exit Velocity. It wasn’t pretty!

Worse yet, these numbers actually were probably a little rosier than performance deserved, because, as I mentioned, this data set also includes the Low-A Florida State League, which is a notoriously pitcher-friendly and power-deficient league. Consequently, orgs like the Giants, whose only representatives in this data set come from the PCL are boosted upwards a bit. To offset that little bit of negative news, however, I’ll note that when I add 2022 into my query, the Giants do much better (buoyed at least in part by David Villar’s great year, I’d guess).

The Giants did quite well in these numbers, however, when I sort by OBP — they walked a lot against fastballs. But I do have a sneaking suspicion that that is actually part of their issue. Organizationally, they have become quite passive against fastballs — and passivity paid off last year in the PCL, with the tight ABS system in play. For those of you who remember my podcast with Lance Brodowski, he had some minor league-wide data from 2023 that showed the Giants’ pure swing percentage against fastballs was 20th in baseball last year, and their performance overall against the pitch was faltering by most metrics (17th in xSLG, 20th in average EV, 21st in EV90). Brodowski’s data took in all levels of minor leagues, and so was a fairer lens generally.

So, yes, to my eyes it does appear that there is an organizational fastball issue affecting the Giants, and I do wonder if passivity has something to do with this. The mantra for this org under Zaidi is supposed to be “do damage or walk,” but the “do damage” part hasn’t been as much in evidence quite as much as the other half of the equation.

But look, there’s a billion PhD’s looking at vast quantities of data who are a lot smarter than one schmoe with a laptop and a spattering of public facing numbers, so I’m certainly not going to say that I know what the answer is here — or even that I’ve identified the right problem. But performance against fastballs is definitely an area I’d be focusing some research on right now, were I the Giants, and I imagine they’re looking into it.

(Good news, if you run those same queries for Giants’ pitchers, their fastball performance was up at the top of the leaderboards in terms of suppressing power!)

There R Giants Pod-162 with Lance Brozdowski

Duncan T

Hi Roger, I'd be interested in your thoughts on where David Villar might be after the deadline. It was only 14 months ago (!) when he was the presumptive 3B for the Giants going into the season, with the chance to make the position his for the short term at least. Now not only Matt Chapman, but Tyler Fitzgerald, Casey Schmitt, and potentially even Brett Wisely and Luciano are ahead of him on the IF depth chart (and Wilmer Flores got a start at 3B the other day). I feel like him playing the full season in Sacramento with a .900 OPS doesn't really help anyone. With Casey there, he's not even getting lots of 3B reps. He should be hitting 20 HR for the Marlins or White Sox or somewhere! Do you think he has any value around the rest of the league?

I would say that the most likely place for him to be is just where he is now: playing nightly in Sacramento. However, as you note the redundancies that exist on the current 40-man, the possibility that he will at some point become a 40-man roster casualty is certainly there. That’s probably not a happy thought for him, but. in the words of the great book on Triple-A life, Where Nobody Knows Your Name by John Feinstein, Triple-A is a place that nobody is happy to be, but the only answer is to perform better.

Villar forced his way from being a fairly anonymous non-prospect into a major leaguer two years ago by getting much better in his approach at the plate. When he was the PCL MVP, he walked 15% of the time, while putting up an Isolated Slugging mark of .342. In the majors, both of those marks slipped significantly, while his K rate surged up over 30%. Concerningly, since returning to the PCL, both his walk rate and power numbers have ticked down in each season, and this year, his batted ball metrics are some of the worst on the Sacramento club. His max EV for the year is less than 105 mph, which is a shocking lack of power for a power-first player.

Still, I do I think he has some value around the rest of the league. But I think it’s pretty modest. If you look at his ZiPS projections coming into this season, it had Villar projected to be a 90 OPS+ hitter this year (or 10% worse than league average), but his 80th percentile projection was an above average 107. For a player who is a little stretched defensively at both 3b and 2b, that’s obviously a pretty fringy projection, but it’s not one that is unplayable in the majors — as you imply, there are some really bad teams out there! Could Villar be exchanged for a middle relief arm come July? That’s certainly possible. Or might he be exposed to waivers at some point because a 40-man spot is needed and get claimed by, yes, the White Sox or some such? Again, that’s definitely a potential outcome for him, and, if it would lead to some sustained playing time at the major league level where he could seek to make the adjustments that escaped him last year, then, yes, it might well be the best thing for his future.

Really, the player who Villar reminds me of in a way is Jason Vosler, though Villar is younger and right-handed. Vosler, who was a corner bat with some patience and power, found homes with both the Giants and the Cincinnati Reds after initially becoming a minor league free agent. That might not be the most glamorous or optimistic comp, seeing as how Vosler has, thus far, not managed to stick at the big league level. But I do think something like that tier is probably where Villar is valued around the industry — somewhere in that 35+ range of player, trying to strive for a chance to be a 40 or above.

Tom

Curious as to the lack of playing time for Alexander Suarez. I haven’t seen an injury report and with his athletic and physical ability I would think he’s a guy you’d want to play.

I’ve been curious about that as well. I noticed that he wasn’t getting much more than end-of-game reps in spring camp, and that’s continued on into the season. He’s gotten into just five games for Eugene so far, and started just two of them.

But I don’t think there’s anything other than performance issues to explain it. He’s simply fallen behind others on the depth chart — Scott Bandura, Matt Higgins, Tanner O’Tremba, Turner Hill, and even erstwhile infielders like Quinn McDaniel have crowded out his playing time. After two sub-par seasons in Low-A, Suarez has started to get passed and left behind by his peers.

While Suarez certainly fills out a uniform well (and he’s even bigger and more put together this year) and oozes physicality, one phrase that you hear repeated over and over like a mantra in this game — and one that keeps coming up in my answers in various ways — is that “it’s a results oriented business,” and so far the results haven’t been there for Suarez. At this point, he’s going to have to force a change in his playing time with his results when he gets the opportunity.

Small Winged Yeti

Thanks for doing this again, Roger!

1) Given that the career high innings for Harrison, Hicks, and Winn are all 100 or so (except once for Winn a long time ago), do you think there will be a hard inning limit for them this season, assuming they all pitch well?

2) I have not heard of Trent Harris at all until FanGraphs put him as our #12, higher than even guys like Black and Birdsong. Can you give us some intel about this guy?

Thanks Yeti! I appreciate the support. Let me start with the second question first, because I think I see an opportunity to blow my own horn and once again pass the ol’ subscription hat around. Not only did I give Harris a pretty strong writeup in my spring Camp Notes the first time I saw him (complete with plenty of video of his various pitches), but I followed that up by naming him my sleeper pick on the San Jose roster in both the team preview and my podcast with Wrenzie. I also made him one of my major subjects of the San Jose section of yesterday’s weekend wrap up. There R Giants’ subscribers should, by now, have a good handle on who Harris is and why he’s a name to know.

Camp Notes 3/22/24

Anyway, the short story is: he’s a really interesting undrafted free agent from High Point. Harris has a fastball that sits in the mid-90s, mostly around 94. That’s a good start, but it’s not what really caught my eye. He also has two distinctly different and distinctly effective breaking balls. The near-perfectly vertical 12-6 curve is probably the better one, but his slider definitely was getting some flinched knees from hitters when I saw him. He also flashes a changeup. The entire mix comes with an extreme over-the-top delivery that seems to add some deception as well. He’s definitely an interesting arm to watch out for.

As for the innings issue, I get the feeling that the Bob Melvin-Bryan Price tandem is going to go with the eye test — bolstered by data on such things as velocity, armslot angle, and biometric markers that can identify signs of fatigue — as the season goes along. The plan is for there to be surfeit of starters in the second half which should allow for guys to get revolving blows down the stretch — but as the old saying goes, no battle plan survives first contact with the enemy, so we’ll see how it all works out. I do NOT think the Giants are likely to hard cap guys and just shut them down because they’ve reached a certain innings milestone. I think they’ll play it as it lays for the most part — within reason that is. The Athletic’s Andy Baggarly wrote a piece on this very topic just yesterday, and within it, Farhan Zaidi noted that the team isn’t likely to be getting to 180 IP with any of their young guys or Hicks, and that will require monitoring. As Zaidi noted in the piece, the goal is to get to the crucial stretch drive being able to utilize the pitchers you feel best about, and not have to worry about fatigue or decline seeping in.

Scott C.

Should Mat Olsen be getting more attention as a prospect? I started wondering when I saw the Giants named him to their Spring Breakout 2024 team (and didn’t include several other healthy pitchers that you and others have ranked in the 30s-40s). That surprised me because Olsen gets very little pub, so I thought maybe he made that roster as a tip of the cap for being a hard worker or solid teammate. But when looking into his performance, I wonder if the Giants might view Olsen as a legit prospect, someone deserving of being on that Spring Breakout team more than pitchers not included (such as Ryan Murphy, José Cruz, Tyler Myrick, Ben Madison and Hayden Wynja). Olsen had a great K-BB% in Richmond last year (26.1%) after getting promoted, just about the best in the entire system, which is touted for its talented arms. But he wasn’t even on your lengthy Just Missed list. So, what gives?

Scott, I appreciate that you were kind enough to put this in the form of a question, rather than the more declarative “Mat Olsen should be getting more attention!” which is quite possibly well deserved.

You are quite right about Olson’s outstanding peripheral numbers last year in Richmond. He pounded the strike zone better than anybody on that staff (though he rather uncharacteristically had some issues with that when I saw him earlier this year). Olson is a shorter righty — he’s listed at 5’11” and that seems about right from times I’ve crossed paths with him — and I think in his case that actually helps him, as it gives his pitches an extremely flat vertical approach angle, consequently coming in a little higher than they appear to hitters. He also has a pretty impressive breaking ball, which is his primary swing and miss pitch.

At its core, of course, this question is essentially: why haven’t I talked him up more, so let me get straight to my reservation: his velocity is pretty fringy for a pure one-inning relief guy. Olson typically sits pretty low 90s, I believe he was 90-92 when I saw him the other night, and that’s fairly typical for him. I’ll admit to harboring an innate velocity-based skepticism — in today’s game I’m just not sure that’s enough to find a position in a modern bullpen, even with solid command and a strong secondary. So, for instance, I always like Ryan Walker’s funk factor, but when he was throwing in the low 90s, I had trouble seeing his future as more than maybe an up-and-down guy at best. It was when his velo started climbing up into the 94-97 range that he suddenly moved from “interesting” to “this guy’s a big leaguer” in my mind.

I’ll say the same for Olson. If he can push the accelerator at some point, he’ll quickly become a lot more interesting, I think. As is, he’s a highly effective arm that may or may not be able to continue success at the next level. That’s the thing about relievers, the range of outcomes is so wide, and the adjustments needed to change them so minor, that almost everybody has a chance at success, though relatively few will actually reach it. I’ll say this, however: guys who can perform at Double-A CAN play in the big leagues.

And with that, let’s close up the bag for this week. I’ll be back with another round next Tuesday, so start thinking up those questions now!

I should have a podcast up later today that includes interviews with Reggie Crawford, Eric Silva, and Tanner Kiest, so keep an eye out for that. And, if all goes well, I’ll have the first of the year’s Stats Review up as well.