Week 15 Stats Review
SF Giants, July 25, 2022
Before we jump into the team stats this week, my friend Scott over at Down on the Farm, put out a fascinating bunch of graphics this week, looking at the minors from a broad scope POV. We’re always micro-focused on what’s going on in the Giants’ system, but it’s good to place them within their industry context as well. So how are the Giants doing relative to their peers? Well, the answers aren’t “disastrous,” but they’re definitely not “great” either. From a hitting perspective, looking simply league-wide at offensive production, the Giants’ system comes in just a hair above average overall, which puts them basically at the lowest edge of the middle tier of baseball:
Scott noted that he did not add in an adjustment for park effects (which are notoriously difficult to determine in the minor leagues anyway), so if you want, you can mentally put a little thumb on the scale to make up for the fact that Sacramento, Richmond, and San Jose are all relatively less hitter-friendly than the rest of their leagues). That could move them more into that middle tier, but certainly doesn’t raise them above it.
One place where they lead most major league organizations, however, is swing and miss rates. That’s something we’ve had cause to talk a lot about over the first half, and usually I’ve noted that this is part of an industry-wide trend. That’s true, but the following chart makes it clear that the Giants are on the knife’s edge of that trend:
They really are whiffing at an extraordinary rate this year!
Moving down to the individual player level, Scott posted the top 10 and bottom 10 performers in affiliated baseball for the season by weighted runs created (wRC+), and there was both good news and bad. Breakout star Vaun Brown has the second highest wRC+ in full season minor league play this year — albeit, while playing about two years older than his A ball level. Unfortunately, that good news is undermined by the more alarming fact that Heliot Ramos is among the ten worst performing minor league hitters this year. How different might 2022 feel were Heliot making the kind of play seen above in Oracle Park all year?
It feels as if pitching has been the story of the year in the Giants’ system, so here’s a chart that puts the org in context with the industry for both their pitching and hitting units. The y axis is by expected FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching), the x axis is wRC+. (An aside: I’ll be honest, I don’t personally put a lot of value in FIP as a stat these days, and I particularly don’t put a lot of value in FIP as a minor league stat. Expected FIP, which “normalizes” pitcher’s home run rates is even more problematic for me — overall, I’d prefer to look at these extremely disparate environments through the standard ERA lens, but I don’t want to come off as looking a gift horse in the mouth, this is a great graphic for putting the Giants within an industry-wide context, which is our point here.)
Ideally, you want to be in the lower half of the y axis and the right half of the x axis, so teams in the lower right quadrant are having great organizational seasons. And, once again, the Giants sorta, kinda are in the lower right quadrant, which is good! But even with the pitching, the overall performance suggests just a hair above average system-wide, right along with the hitting. The overall picture is something of a so-so year overall.
Cum si, cum sa.
One important bit of context to minor league stats is player’s age vs. level. This chart shows that the Giants are in a heap of teams that have, on average, rosters that are slightly older than league average for both hitters and pitchers (if you look at the below, the Giants are mushed behind the Angels’ Big A and next to the Mets). This is putting all four levels into one lump sum, which may not be the best way to look at it. Also, it’s worth noting that some teams in this older quadrant have excellent farm systems (like the Dodgers and Mariners), so it’s not a simple bottom line. But we do see some of the best systems in baseball right now in the “young” quadrant to the lower left (e.g, Guardians, Pirates, Orioles).
And one last chart, here’s the system hitters laid out on the spectrum of good to bad for the year. Clearly, the big stories of the year are Brown, David Villar, and Carter Aldrete. This is qualified hitters, so Marco Luciano is absent. He would be just under Aldrete were he qualified (assuming he continued to perform at the same rate).
As an aside, if you can’t tell from the quality of these great visuals, Scott publishes a great newsletter himself, and after you’re done subscribing to There R Giants…
…you should definitely check out Down on the Farm.
With that, let’s get to our weekly system round up of stats, leaderboards, and transactions!
Sacramento River Cats: 40-53, 4th Place (12.0 GB)
-80 Run Differential
By run differential, the River Cats have been the league’s worst team, and they’re separated by just a half game from Tacoma’s league worst record.
SORTABLE TABLES: HITTERS PITCHERS
PCL LEADERS*
David Villar: HR (3rd), Runs (T-10th), RBI (5th), BB (9th), BB% (3rd), OBP (2nd), SLG (1st), OPS (1st), ISO (1st), wRC+ (1st), FB% (4th)
Bryce Johnson: SB (6th)
Ka’ai Tom: FB% (10th)
Heliot Ramos: GB% (7th)
Enmanuel De Jesus: ERA (10th), FIP (9th), SO (7th), BB (8th), K% (7th), SwS% (7th)
Raynel Espinal: IP (10th), SO (4th), K% (4th), K-BB% (7th), LD% (8th), FB% (8th), SwS% (5th)
Tristan Beck: FIP (6th), BB% (7th), SwS% (10th)
Sean Hjelle: BB% (9th), LD% (1st), GB% (1st)
Joey Marciano: Saves (5th)
*IP level set at 60 for this week for all full season affiliates.
TRANSACTIONS (not including recall/options to/from SF)*
We skipped the Stats Review last week during the break, so transactions moves date back to July 11th for this week’s update.
RHP Wie-Chieh Huang sent on rehab assignment to AZL Giants Orange
RHP Angel Rondón claimed on waivers and optioned to Sacramento
INF Wyatt Mathisen activated from IL
OF Bryce Johnson place on 7-day IL and re-activated from 7-day IL
LHP Aaron Fletcher claimed on waivers and outright assigned to Sacramento
RHP Matt Carasiti released
RHP Taylor Williams released
LHP Alex Young acquired in trade from Cleveland and optioned to Sacramento
RHP Tanner Andrews sent on rehab assignment to AZL Giants Orange
LHP Daniel Tillo sent on rehab assignment to AZL Giants Orange
C Robert Emery re-assigned to Eugene
C Andrew Knapp signed as free agent and assigned to Sacramento
RHP Kyle Tyler signed as free agent and assigned to Sacramento
Remind me to never take a week off from detailing Sacramento transactions again. This is exhausting!
Richmond Flying Squirrels: 7-14, T-5th Place (6.5 GB)
-26 Run Differential
For the season, Richmond is 47-43, but they’ve had a tough time getting re-started following the tense final weeks of the first half title chase. Even for the season, their run differential is -10, but the extremely stout back of the bullpen has really helped win tight games.
SORTABLE TABLES: HITTERS PITCHERS
EL LEADERS
Frankie Tostado: Avg (6th), Hits (6th),
Shane Matheny: OBP (6th), BB% (5th)
Sean Roby: HR (1st), SLG (9th), SO (3rd), ISO (3rd), FB% (9th)
Tyler Fitzgerald: HR (T-9th), SO (2nd), FB% (1st)
Diego Rincones: K% (1st)
Michael Gigliotti: OBP (10th), BB (T-8th), SB (4th), BB% (4th)
Brandon Martorano: FB% (10th)
Jake Dahlberg: IP (10th), BB% (5th), K-BB (10th), FB% (6th)
Kai-Wei Teng: IP (4th), SO (5th), BB (1st), LD% (9th), GB% (2nd), Pitches (1st)
Matt Frisbee: IP (5th), BB% (8th), BABIP (10th), LD% (3rd), FB% (3rd)
Chris Wright: Saves (T-8th)
Should note here that while Kyle Harrison isn’t qualified at this point in either the Eastern or Northwest League, he has the third highest strikeout total in the minor leagues this year (128), and his K% (42.7%) is the highest in the minor leagues for any pitcher with 40 or more innings pitched.
TRANSACTIONS
RHP Nick Avila re-assigned from Eugene
RHP Wil Jensen re-assigned from Eugene
RHP Ty Weber re-assigned to Eugene
RHP Randy Rodriguez re-assigned from Eugene
RHP Taylor Rashi activated from 7-day IL
LHP Kyle Harrison activated from Temporary Inactive List
RHP Gray Fenter released
INF Carter Aldrete re-assigned from Eugene
INF Sean Roby placed on 7-day IL
INF Frankie Tostado placed on 7-day IL
Lotta arms coming up from that Eugene pitching staff!
Eugene Emeralds: 14-10, 2nd Place (2.5 GB)
+33 Run Differential
Overall, Eugene is posting a dominant 52-35 record, just a fraction below a .600 winning percentage for the season, and their run differential is + 84 — 50 better than any other club in the league.
SORTABLE TABLES: HITTERS PITCHERS
NWL LEADERS
Casey Schmitt: Avg (7th), OBP (9th), SLG (4th), OPS (4th), HR (2nd), Hits (5th), Runs (3rd), RBI (3rd), BB (8th), ISO (5th), wRC+ (6th), FB% (5th)
Ghordy Santos: GB% (8th)
Carter Aldrete: Avg (3rd), OBP (7th), SLG (2nd), OPS (2nd), HR (T-3rd), Hits (10th), 2b (5th), Runs (5th), RBI (5th), K% (8th), ISO (2nd), wRC+ (2nd), FB% (7th)
Hunter Bishop: HR (7th), Runs (T-6th), SO (2nd), SB (10th), ISO (9th)
Luis Toribio: SLG (10th), HR (T-5th), RBI (10th), BB (7th), BB% (4th), ISO (4th), GB% (4th)
Jairo Pomares: SO (6th), FB% (4th)
Luis Matos: K% (2nd), FB% (1st)
Nick Avila: Saves (1st)
Nick Swiney: BB (9th)
Wil Jensen: ERA (3rd), FIP (6th), K% (4th), BB% (2nd), K-BB% (2nd), Opp Avg (9th), WHIP (5th), LD% (1st), GB% (6th), FB% (8th), SwS% (3rd)
Jake Wong: FIP (9th), K% (10th), K-BB% (9th), LD% (2nd), GB% (3rd)
Interesting to see how many times Jake Wong pops up on leaderboards!
TRANSACTIONS
INF Riley Mahan re-assigned from San Jose
RHP Nick Avila re-assigned to Richmond
RHP Wil Jensen re-assigned to Richmond
RHP Ty Weber re-assigned from Richmond
RHP Randy Rodriguez re-assigned to Richmond
INF Carter Aldrete re-assigned to Richmond
C Robert Emery re-assigned from Sacramento
San Jose Giants: 12-12, 3rd Place (2.0 GB)
-1 Run Differential
Fresno has, once again, been the class of the league, with a run differential (+148) that is almost double San Jose’s second best ratio (+79). But San Jose has pretty consistently been the second best club in the Cal League this year.
SORTABLE TABLES: HITTERS PITCHERS
CAL LEAGUE LEADERS
Vaun Brown: Avg (1st), OBP (3rd), SLG (1st), OPS (1st), HR (T-4th) 3b (T-3rd), SB (9th), ISO (2nd), wRC+ (1st), LD% (1st)
Grant McCray: SLG (7th), OPS (10th), Hits (7th), HR (T-4th), 3b (T-1st), Runs (6th), SO (3rd), SB (7th), ISO (4th)
Aeverson Arteaga: Hits (6th), 2b (2nd), SO (10th), LD% (9th), FB% (3rd)
Yorlis Rodriguez: FB% (1st)
Nick Sinacola: ERA (4th), FIP (7th), K% (5th), BB% (6th), K-BB% (3rd), Opp Avg (4th), WHIP (3rd), BABIP (8th), FB% (4th), Sws% (1st)
Seth Lonsway: ERA (7th), FIP (8th), BB (10th), K% (6th), Opp Avg (5th), LD% (6th), GB% (1st)
Trevor McDonald: ERA (1st), FIP (1st), K% (7th), K-BB% (6th), Opp Avg (8th), WHIP (6th), GB% (3rd), SwS% (4th)
Matt Mikulski: BB% (7th), K-BB% (10th), LD% (9th), FB% (3rd), SwS% (8th)
Eric Silva: K% (4th), K-BB% (9th), Opp Avg (2nd), WHIP (5th), BABIP (3rd), LD% (10th), FB% (6th), SwS% (10th)
Tyler Myrick: Saves (T-7th)
Hunter Dula: Saves (T-5th)
Manuel Mercedes: BB (5th)
Jose Cruz: Saves (T-9th)
TRANSACTIONS
INF Riley Mahan re-assigned to Eugene
RHP Melvin Adon rehab assignment moved from ACL to San Jose
C Adrian Sugastey activated from 7-day IL
LHP Scott Alexander “awarded to” ACL Giants Black
The Alexander transaction is some sort of arcane administrative move. I suspect it means that the org has maxed out its rehab assignments, but am not certain.
Arizona Complex League
Giants Black: 23-9, 1st Place, +76 Run Differential
Giants Orange, 8-25, 6th Place, -50 Run Differential
I noticed this in yesterday’s post, but the difference in record and run differential for these two teams is a little mysterious given the talent on their relative rosters. Orange has plenty of good arms! I don’t really understand it.
SORTABLE TABLES: HITTERS PITCHERS
Nice season so far for Elian Rayo — the only age appropriate player at the level having a better than league average season.
ACL LEAGUE LEADERS
Anthony Rodriguez: HR (T-8th), SO (5th)
Jared Dupere:
P.J. Hilson: HR (T-8th), Runs (3rd), SB (9th), ISO (7th), FB% (4th)
Donovan McIntyre:
Elian Rayo: HR (T-8th), RBI (10th), BB (4th), SO (7th), BB% (9th), FB% (9th)
Jean Peña: BB (2nd), SO (10th), BB% (4th)
Derwin Laya: BB% (10th), GB% (3rd)
Tyler Forner: SO (8th), LD% (2nd)
Irvin Murr IIII: LD% (7th)
Diego Velasquez: GB% (8th), SwS% (3rd)
Kwan Adkins: FB% (10th)
Brayan Palencia:
Mikell Manzano: ERA (10th), FIP (2nd), IP (7th), SO (1st), K% (1st), BB% (T-6th), K-BB% (1st), LD% (3rd), SwS% (3rd)
Roberto Monegro: ERA (5th), FIP (1st) K% (5th), BB% (5th), K-BB% (4th), WHIP (8th), FB% (2nd), SwS% (1st)
Nomar Medina: ERA (2nd), FIP (4th), IP (1st), SO (T-4th), K% (8th), BB% (4th), K-BB% (6th), LD% (5th), SwS% (8th)
Freddery Paulino: IP (4th), BB% (9th), GB% (4th)
Miguel Mora: FIP (6th), SO (T-4th), K% (4th), K-BB% (8th), Opp Avg (8th), LD% (2nd), GB% (7th)
Willian Suarez: SO (T-4th)
Dominican Summer League
Giants Black, 14-22, 9th Place (9.0 GB), -47 Run Differential
Giants Orange, 15-20, 7th Place (7.5 GB), -21 Run Differential
It’s been a rough year for the Giants down in the Dominican Republic. The records have been rough, it’s been hard to get and keep the best prospects on the field, and there really hasn’t been much in the way of unexpected breakouts.
SORTABLE TABLES: HITTERS PITCHERS
DSL LEAGUE LEADERS
Estanlin Cassiani: Avg (2nd), Hits (6th), K% (4th), GB% (1st)
Juan Perez: GB% (8th)
Ricardo Estrada: LD% (6th)
Mauricio Estrella: IP (1st), LD% (8th)
Luis Bermudez: ERA (4th), Opp Avg (2nd), WHIP (3rd), BABIP (1st), LD% (3rd), GB% (1st)
Jorge Martinez: IP (9th), SO (5th), K% (8th), GB% (7th)
Luis Yepez: Saves (T-9th)
Rookie League Games
ACL Giants Black lost @ ACL D’backs Black, 4-2 (7 inn)
ACL Giants Orange lost to ACL Rockies, 7-4
July has easily been the most productive month of P.J. Hilson’s career. After hitting just .192 with a .751 OPS in June, the toolsy outfielder has been on fire this month, hitting .310/.403/.655. He’s even made some strides at cutting down the swing and miss. He’s working on a modest six-game hitting streak, and, over a longer stretch, has hits in 11 of his past 14 games, including 11 extra-base hits. Over that same time, he’s K’d 22% of the time — well below his career numbers. In last night’s game, he singled and doubled, stole his 8th and 9th bases of the year, and scored one of Black’s two runs. There’s not much precedence for players spending four years in rookie ball and going on to big things (and “much” is euphemistic there), but it would be interesting to see if Hilson’s made enough progress to carry this success to Low A.
Roberto Monegro ran into one bad inning that ended with a three-run homer — which was all the damage necessary to drop Black’s game. A throwing error from 3b Elian Rayo and inexperienced route running on a fly ball didn’t help him any. Monegro’s six strikeouts pushed his season total up to 45, which puts him in a scrum among the top five in the league.
The clear league leader in strikeouts is Orange’s Mikell Manzano, whose 59 punchouts are 11 more than the league’s second best. Manzano had some uncharacteristic wildness last night, walking a career high three — which might have led to his relatively short outing — and he also surrendered a home run that hung him with the L. While Manzano isn’t quite repeating the stupendous 70 K to 5 BB ratio he had in the DSL as an 18 year old, he’s currently at 59:12 over 38 innings, which is a pretty sweet ratio as well.
Ronnie Williams, who was signed back from the KBO earlier this month, made his second appearance in the ACL, as he apparently is working his way back from some sort of injury.
Diego Velasquez had two hits, including an RBI triple, for Orange. It was just the fourth extra-base hit for Velasquez this season, giving him an Isolated Slugging of .058 (which is an improvement over last year’s .019). We’re still waiting for some strength to develop with Velasquez, but he definitely has a good approach at the plate and makes solid swing decisions. His low, low 16.7% K rate combined with a decently high 10.5% BB rate are probably better indicators of his future as a hitter than the current lack of strength would suggest.
DSL Giants Black lost to DSL Marlins, 12-6
DSL Giants Orange lost @ DSL Cardinals, 11-5
Things aren’t going great in the Dominican, where the two clubs combined have a 19-43 record. And things are especially rough on the pitching side, where the two squads currently have the 39th and 44th team ERAs in the league. Rough!
As you can see up in the stats area, OF Moises de la Rosa has hit quite well this year playing for Team Black, but like several of his fellow six- and seven-figure signings, he’s had trouble getting on the field. De la Rosa played his first game in nine days yesterday, doubling among three at bats. That pushed his OPS up to .861 for the season. However, he wasn’t able to finish the game, subbed out for a defensive replacement in the 6th. Whether that was the plan going into the game or caused by a resumption of whatever has been keeping him out, we can only guess. Eighteen year old center fielder Fabio Villadiego homered for the second time in three games for Black. He’s hitting just .226 overall, however.
Good day for Dennys Riera on Team Orange, however. One of the top signings from this year’s international class, Riera had his best day as a pro so far, whacking his first professional HR. He also walked twice and scored two runs. Nice all around day, Dennys! Congrats young man! Riera’s fellow top-signee and Orange teammate, Juan Perez, had a two-hit day, his second multi-hit effort in his last four starts. Perez’ average for the year is just .218, however. Cuban Lazaro Morales started out the season quite hot, but he’s cooled of late, hitting just .264 with a .751 OPS in July. Maybe the bat is picking back up. Morales had two hits for the second straight game, yesterday, including his 10th double. Estanlin Cassiani’s 0 for 5 broke a 19-game hitting streak that stretched back to June 21, and dropped his average back under .400.
Tonight’s Scheduled Starters:
Sacramento (Beck) @ Round Rock (Winn), 5:05 pm, MiLBTV
Richmond (Dahlberg) vs. Somerset (Medina), 3:35 pm, MiLBTV
Eugene (TBD) vs. Hillsboro (Randall), 6:35 pm, MiLBTV
San Jose (Sinacola) vs. Rancho Cucamonga (TBD), 6:30 pm, MiLBTV
ACL Giants Black (TBD) vs. ACL Rockies (TBD), 6:00 pm, No Video
ACL Giants Orange (TBD) @ ACL D’backs Red (TBD), 6:00 pm, No Video
DSL Giants Black (TBD) vs DSL Angels (TBD), 8:00 am, No Video
DSL Giants Orange (TBD) @ DSL Nationals (TBD), 8:00 am, No Video
Squirrels hitters get one of the top challenges their league has to offer going up against hard-throwing right-hander, Luis Medina, the Yankees #9 prospect. It’s the type of game that should draw plenty of scouting attention, as Medina could be in high demand in trade talks the next couple of weeks. Sacramento also gets a challenge in Rangers’ #9 prospect Cole Winn, who was Baseball America’s High School Player of the Year in 2018 and has spent most of the time since at the top of Texas’ prospect rankings. As you can see in the stats area above, Tristan Beck has had a lot of good elements to his game in the PCL, and Round Rock is a good environment in which to put them altogether into an impressive outing.
Back to the full week schedule — with plenty of “hug watch” alerts coming, I’d guess. What will the next week bring? Players going out; new players coming in? The next seven days will tell. Enjoy the ball everybody!
Nice writeup. But it's "comme ci, comme ca...." :) I won't complain if you leave the cedille off the "ca" :)