What will happen tonight?
[Note to self: delete this post before draft begins to avoid inevitable embarrassment]
So you’ve come here looking for answers. And let me just say — boy have you come to the wrong place!
Oh I do know a few things about what will happen tonight. MLB network and ESPN will both cover the event live, beginning at 7 pm with MLB Network also featuring a lead-in show that starts at 5. There will, for I think the first time, be a boatload of heretofore unseen data included in the presentation coming from technologies discussed here previously (e.g., Trackman, Rapsodo). There will be spin rates, spin axis, and information on terms you don’t understand but vaguely recall having heard mentioned in a Jim Carey/Dr. Seuss adaptation. And throughout this all, I think there’s a very high likelihood that I will regret recently becoming a cord cutter as I struggle with trying to follow along multiple sources without the warm snuggy comfort of my old cable package (and without adding even more subscription services to the budget).
But no doubt you know all that as well (maybe not the “warm snuggy cable package” bit). And what you really want from me is some tiny insight into what the Giants are going to do with the 13th pick. Buddy, I have no idea. But it turns out that having no idea is relatively poor #content so I’d like permission to amend my previous statement to the following: “Buddy, let me tell you what! Herein you will find the absolutely, positively 100% back guaranteed correct pick that you will see the Giants make this evening (sorted by odds)*”
*100% guarantee is not fully guaranteed
Some rando arm (2%)
Look I’m no journalist, but I’m fairly certain that writing a “who will they draft?” post that builds to a dènoument of: “The Field” is basically the worst possible way to go about this. So even though there’s like a 95% chance that whatever name comes out of Rob Manfred’s mouth tonight is NOT going to be someone I mention here, I ain’t putting that at the end. Deal with it! I never promised there’d be math.
So, yes, while it’s highly likely that the Giants are looking at the Trackman data that is secretly pushing Clayton Beeter up boards, or are in love with the velocity potential of Cade Cavalli, or were even listening to my last podcast and were convinced by Matt Collier to select Bryce Jarvis, I’m telling you right now that none of these things are actually going to happen. They’re not mic-dropping some perceived massive over-reach on the #13 pick — that was the last regime’s bit, remember? That goes double for most of the college bats in the draft who have a massive gap between the three guys at the top and everyone else (except for.. well I’ll get there). And they won’t select Heston Kjerstad who combines Hunter Bishop’s proclivity for strikeouts with a decided lack of athleticism, speed or positional flexibility. And they won’t reach for Justin Foscue even though I’m quite pleased with my “poor man’s Heston Kiura” comp for him and would love to promote it more widely. And they won’t select Max Meyer though they’d love to because he won’t reach them. No. None of these things are going to happen according to my admittedly amateurish skills at reading tea leaves. And if you start talking about Reid Detmers, my instinct is to say…
Garrett Mitchell (3%)
There’s a strong case to be made that UCLA’s Garrett Mitchell is the IDEAL candidate for this team and its new braintrust. First off, you have Farhan Zaidi’s draft room reputation as the self-appointed “Tools Police” fitting perfectly with Garrett Mitchell, who offers arguably the loudest and most complete set of tools in the draft class. Secondly, one of the biggest knock’s against Mitchell (other than his physical issue monitoring Type 1 Diabetes) is that his raw power hasn’t shown up in games yet, which makes him a great fit for the “Dodgers Model” of development I discussed last week — take a guy who can hit and control the strikezone and unlock the power. Do that with Mitchell and you have a superstar who combines plus defensive ability in CF with high on base and power. And, lest we forget, Mitchell’s name has actually been called once before by current Giants’ Draft Czar Michael Holmes (back when he was helping run the A’s draft room).
Put all that together and it really feels like this should be the guy at the end of my post. My 100% (read: 40%) guaranteed lock for a future Giant. It makes sense. It fits. I juuuust…..don’t think it will happen. Just don’t feel the connection there somehow. So while this is the ‘Smack Your Head and say ‘duuuh….of course!’” pick of the draft, I’m pushing it down to bottom of the pile because that’s what my trick knee tells me to do. And if Mitchell’s name is called tonight I’ll be reminded yet again that my knee has shit for brains (a joke that is 100% stolen from High Fidelity just so that there’d be at least one “100%” thing in this post that’s actually correct).
Nmick Abitsko (10%)
In one of his weekly chats recently, Eric Longenhagen made the point that High School RHP are turning into the Running Backs of the MLB draft — nobody wants to waste a high pick on them because something just as good will be coming in the later rounds. But Longenhagen then went on to say that you can’t always be held hostage to history and sometimes you have to listen to your scouts — a point that he and Kylie McDaniel repeat often in Future Value. If you have a draft room screaming that they’ve found Clayton Kershaw you can’t blow it off and figure that some Klayton Cershaw is still going to be on the Board at the 50th pick. You have to trust your process and your people.
From this perspective, there’s certainly a chance that some Giants’ scouts have fallen in love with one of the top two RHP from the High School class, Mick Abel or Nick Bitsko and have removed shoes with intent to pound tables. After all, while the history of the Dodgers’ picks while Zaidi was GM in southland bends heavily towards the certainty of the safe, college pick, they didn’t shy away from taking a swing at JT Ginn two years ago. And as Baseball America’s JJ Cooper said in a chat just yesterday:
Abel has a lot of the attributes I love to see in a high school pitcher. He's a pitcher who keeps developing velocity with an already demonstrated ability to refine his pitches and a demonstrable work-ethic as a gym-rat ... I know the track record on HS RHPs in the first round is bad, but if you're going to take one, where teams have gotten into trouble is drafting for present velocity more than projection/pitchability/athleticism. Abel has all three of those attributes (and yes, he does have present velo too).
So yes, I think both of these guys can tempt the eye of a seasoned observer and neither of them should be passed over with a dismissive “pfffffft…HS RHP in the top of the 1st round are terrible picks!” But on the other hand, in a draft that is loaded with fairly comparable pitching talent, it feels like there’d have to be an extreme amount of conviction on Nmick Abitsko’s separation from other alternatives for that to be the pick here.
Robert Hassell III (15%)
Ok, now we’re getting somewhere. Hassell brings a decent amount of Mitchell’s fit with the Giants to the table without the split camp-y-ness of Mitchell himself. Hassell has an argument for the best pure hitter in the class — in fact, in a Baseball America survey of scouting directors he was voted just that. He also has just the right amount of athleticism and footspeed to allow you to dream that he might stick in CF even though you know enough to doubt that he will. The one thing he doesn’t have is power — that thing that Dodgers model tells you to trust you can develop last, remember? In many ways, the profile is similar to one of the late-1st round steals of recent memory, Christian Yelich. And, if I don’t already have you burnishing Hassell’s future MVP trophy already, how about if I dangle this little quote from Kiley McDaniel in front of your nose?
If we … look for a combination of elite upside and makeup that scouts think will translate well into continued improvement, I've got to go with Robert Hassell. The only thing to ding is his present power and that's the most fixable tool in today's game, particularly when there's already athleticism and hit tool present. One scout told me the last two guys with the same sort of makeup and personality to Hassell were Jarred Kelenic and Bryce Harper.
Add to this, the Giants’ spot in the draft fits nicely at the “hinge” where the top college guys will have mostly come off the board and the top high school guys are ready to come off. I’d honestly be thrilled with this pick personally and the more I think of it happening the more excited about it I get. Hassell isn’t particularly young for the class and we’ve heard the Giants mentioned as one of the team’s that factor age highly into their models. But in a lot of ways Hassell comes across as ideal for the Giants (I mean, there’s the whole thing about six of their top seven prospects being OF, but that’s neither here nor there).
Tyler Soderstrom (30%)
There’s been so much juice on this connection that it’s hard to fight the suspicion that it’s all draft-game smokescreen. Ha Ha! Fooled you! Don’t get your hopes up about that Legacy Giant pick from down Highway 99. He won’t keep the Levi’s Landing folks busy provoking memories of former Legacy Giant Barry Bonds with his parade of mammoth Splash Hits for years to come! No indeed. (or alternatively, the damn Rockies take him first! Get yer grubby hands off our Legacy guy, Rox!)
And yet….in their first Zaidi-Regime draft last year this team did show a strong proclivity for local area kids (keep an eye on LHP Kyle Harrison in this regard as well). And Zaidi IS well known for loving Catchers who play other positions (which Soderstorm is likely to do). He could likely handle 3b and might even be athletic enough for 2b (and with shifting these days the difference between the two spots grows less and less), which certainly would help bolster a system light on infield talent. And he also fits the “find the guy with a track record of hitting and develop the rest” mold. Is it smokescreen? Or just the worst kept secret handshake of the draft? I’m strongly tempted to say, yup, here’s your guy, There R Giant here, dust off my hands and call it a Wednesday. And yeah, I do think this connection is real and we should all just nod our heads sagely and say “told ya so” when Soderstrom’s name comes up at 13. I’d end my post right here if it weren’t for….
Garrett Crochet (40%)
I know there are folks out there who are going to hate that this is where I’ve ended — absolutely hate it. And I know just last week I told Matt Collier I thought Crochet was just too risky for the Giants. Whatabout the workload! Whatabout the shoulder soreness! yeah I know. What about them? That’s where I was last week.
But in a stunning capitulation to recency bias, today I’m all about the Trackman data. We have reason to believe that the Giants are weighing analytics and proprietary models heavily in making their draft choices. And while Crochet doesn’t have a track record of shouldering a starter’s workload, he sure rings the data bells loudly enough to call the farmers in from their fields. Trackman listed him as the #4 pitcher in the draft from the strict viewpoint of their data (admittedly, behind Beeter). His fastball spin rate is elite. His curveball spin is elite. He brings what Trackman’s Zach Day calls “the hammer and the hop.” He blows it up close to 100 with jump from the left-hand side and he follows with a tremendous breaking ball. He excites scouts. He excites binary code. He excites everybody except the people who really really hate him because they’re scared of his risk and hate me for putting him this high on my predictions post.
But hate him or not, Crochet is the pick, so learn to love it! This is your brand new Giant and your brand new #1 pitching prospect in the system. So be like binary code and get excited about him! And don’t feel shy about reaching out to me and congratulating me when I’m proved right. My twitter handle is…..waaait a minute, you’re not planning on publicly shaming me when I’m proved wrong are you? Forget it. I’m not on twitter — I’m deleting my account right now. Never heard of no @rog61. That’s just a burner account for somebody more famous than me.
Seriously, I will be hanging around on Twitter to comment on the picks so if you belong to that particular circle of hell, please drop by and say hello. We’ll celebrate the new Legacy Giant or curse the head scratching over-reach as it comes. Let’s hear from you readers — who do you want to see called tonight?
[EDITOR’S NOTE: In a late-breaking Kiley McDaniel mock this morning, he has much of the above coming off the board in the five picks before the Giants, and even strongly suggested that the Soderstorm to Colorado and Crochet to ChiSox picks solidified last night which certainly makes them sound close to done deals. Hall of Famer Peter Gammons noted his phone was blowing up with Soderstrom-Rox connections this morning as well. So unless the Orioles or somebody else throws the top 10 into chaos, it looks like I’ll have to just end this post with “The Field” after all. Sigh]
Resources for the Draft
To help you with your draft viewing pleasure, here’s all the draft-related material I’ve produced over the last few weeks:
Along with some major draft watchers draft primers and databases (some of these are subscriber only):
Also just a couple of program notes. Coverage of rounds 2-5 will begin on MLB Network (or website) Thursday at 4 pm, with the actual draft beginning at 5. And I won’t be dropping a new podcast tomorrow as my next pod will be a full draft recap next week. I have a pretty exciting guest so hopefully it’s worth the wait! (Tease!)
Enjoy the draft everybody! It’s almost like real-life sportsball on the tubes! Or as close as 2020 seems willing to grant us anyway.
On this Day in History
2013: Gustavo Cabrera’s bases-loaded triple keyed a four-run comeback victory for the DSL Giants, 6-5 over the D’backs. It was the first professional XBH for the powerful and athletic Cabrera who had signed a $1.3 million dollar contract the previous July 2nd (the fifth highest signing for a 16-year-old that year). Gustavo’s debut wasn’t exactly a rousing success, as he hit just .247 with 2 HRs, but he showed encouraging signs of what his tools could do. But just two months after his debut season ended, Cabrera would suffer a devastating accident that nearly severed his hand and ultimately derailed his promising career. I once wrote about the joys of watching Gustavo take BP, one of my favorite pieces I wrote at McCovey Chronicles, actually.
2017: Starter Raffi Vizcaino threw 6 innings of no-hit ball with 9 strikeouts, powering Augusta to a 7-1 victory over Greenville. RHP Nolan Riggs, the Greenjackets’ third pitcher of the game allowed a leadoff single in the 9th inning to break up the no-hit bid, the only hit of the game for the Drive. Vizcaino would have an up and down season for Augusta — he’d later have an 11 K game, but he also had a start allowing nine runs — finishing with a 4.98 ERA. Transitioning to the bullpen in San Jose in 2019 gave his career a new boost and put him on the periphery of a potential big league callup (in 2020?).
2018: Gio Brusa hit 3 home runs and knocked in six to lead San Jose to a 16-5 win in Modesto. It was Brusa’s second six-RBI game of the year with San Jose, the previous one having come in the famous bi-cycle game with teammate Jalen Miller on April 11. Brusa would lead the 2018 Giants with 19 HRs and 70 RBIs, but the switch-hitting slugger struggled with a conversion to 1b, and after hitting just .233 with a .298 OBP over his four-year career he was released at the end of March, 2020.
I’m not an ESPN subscriber- would it be kosher to ask who McDaniel has the Giants selecting in the 1st round?
For some reason I really really want a HS kid - Abel, Bitsko, Hassell, or Soderstrom.
Not a fan of Crochet or Mitchell or Detmers. So SF will probably go with one of them.