Early Season Risers
Which players look primed to leap up There R Giants Top 50 next year?
Photo Credit: Richmond Flying Squirrels
Last week we did a quick check in with how the There R Giants Top 20 prospects were performing early in the season and found, to our consternation, that cold starts are proliferating amongst the best prospects in the organization.
With the off-day, maybe today’s a good time to turn our attention to the flip side of the coin — who are the guys outside of my Top 20 whose early season success is putting them in position to potentially jump up the ranks next year if they can build off the strong strides they’ve made so far?
Herewith, a Happy Thoughts Only™ post on the early season risers in the system. Here are eight guys who sat outside my Top 20 who are making a push to be this year’s incarnation of David Villar and jump in out of nowhere. The season is long and the flowers that bloom in the spring often wither in the summer’s heat, but a good first step is better than no step at all! So hop aboard the bandwagon and cheer these guys’ successful first steps!
[Editor’s Note: I won’t be including Ryan Reckley in this post, as he was unranked this winter solely due to the fact that he wasn’t officially part of the organization when my rankings were completed. But yes, he’ll have a strong case for making a big leap forward as well.]
Mason Black (Unranked)
There are other players down in this Honorable Mention area whom I can legitimately see making the big leagues someday …. like 2021 draft picks Mason Black, Rohan Handa, and Seth Lonsway, whom I’ll be keeping a close watch on this year.
What I say now: “If only I knew then what I know now!”
It took about two warm up pitches into the first spring training appearance I saw from Black for me to know that this take didn’t age well. Yes, I’ll be keeping a close watch on Black this year, but no, I should not have bundled him with basically the entire draft class plus others. Turns out there’s a reason why the Giants used a third round draft choice on the pride of Lehigh!
Scouting reports were somewhat down on Black last year, when his stuff all seemed to tick down after mechanical changes. But Michael Holmes and company liked what they saw and believed the Giants could get the best out of him.
So far: Mission Accomplished! Black didn’t pitch at all last year after signing, but he’s been a revelation in his debut so far. The stuff is big across the board: a four seam fastball that can reach 97-98 with big armside run, a slider that can get up to 86-87 with real bite, and even a power changeup that shows promise and comes in like a 1980s era fastball.
Unlike many power arms, he keeps it around the strike zone, too. Black didn’t walk his first batter this year until his third start, and currently has a 28 to 5 K/BB ratio. As with most of the San Jose staff, Black hasn’t stretched out too far yet, so it’s hard to know exactly how well the stuff plays in a full starter’s role, but the fall back as a late innings power reliever isn’t a terrible outcome at all. The thought that his power arsenal might work in a starting role, however, is the real tantalizing proposition. Keeping Black off of my Top 50 entirely feels like the biggest whiff of the project at this point (setting aside my previously explained decision to leave Luis Gonzalez off as well).
Tristan Beck (#46)
“there might not be another player in the system who would seem to be so assured of a productive big league career if he could just stay out of the trainer’s room for awhile.”
What I say now: Pretty much the same thing!
I still stand by that sentiment … and right now, Beck is looking as healthy and loose as he has since the late summer and fall of 2019. That’s a good thing, because during the Arizona Fall League that year, Beck looked very much like a pitcher whose big league debut might not be that far off (oh to return to those innocent days of the fall of 2019!). When I talked with Baseball America’s Josh Norris that winter, Beck’s was the first name he mentioned when I asked about players who might help in the near-term.
It’s taken awhile for that near-term to arrive, as the pandemic destroyed his 2020 along with everyone else, and a case of sciatica undermined his 2021. But he looked good when I saw him in spring training, and has carried that over into the season. Beck touched 97 with his fastball on opening night, and has consistently sat in the 94-96 range since then. His slider, which was a priority objective of his this winter, looks like a real weapon now, as does the change. Curiously, his curve, which used to be his best pitch, has been a “come and go” offering this year. He also hasn’t gotten his command into mid-season form yet (11 walks in 23.2 IP). But as he works his way back into form after two lost seasons, the crispness of his stuff and performance of the overall repertoire are the promise that my eyes are focused on.
Hopefully, with a full season of good health, allowing him to focus on his craft rather than his body, he’ll put himself back on track as a player who can help the big league roster sooner rather than later.
Ghordy Santos (#45)
“It takes a long, long time for the path to gain shape and definition — for tangible profile to begin to take form in a player’s career. In 2022, Ghordy Santos’ career might, at long last, truly make that transformation from amorphous promise to a solid shape.”
What I say now: So sorry, I was busy patting myself on the back. What was the question?
Honestly, I think I nailed this one. It was virtually impossible to push a 22-year-old who had played just 24 games above the complex level in five years since signing much higher than #45 in this deep of a farm system — but I was bound and determined to get him on the list someplace!
The story of Ghordy’s professional career coming into 2022 was essentially one of injuries. When I asked a scout (of an MLB team renowned for their quality scouting department) this spring what he thought of Santos, the immediate response was: “I wish he wouldn’t keep getting hurt.” Because everything else a scout might want is there — a tremendous athlete with a powerful frame and plus speed, switch hitter, strong up-the-middle defensive profile, and as the scout noted, “he always plays hard.” Great athlete with power, speed, defense and effort? Yeah, sign me up for some of that!
We just haven’t seen enough of Santos in action the last few years.
But this year? He’s been on the field regularly, and to make matters even more interesting — he’s been all over the field regularly! I mentioned during spring camp that he was taking fly balls in center field, and he’s brought that super utility profile into the season with him. So far with Eugene, Santos has started games at 2b, SS, 3b, CF, and RF. He’s looked good at all of them (though the outfield is new and he’s still working on the reads and routes, naturally), and he’s looked even better in that all-important position: the batter’s box. So far, Santos has posted a 148 wRC+, the third highest on a roster full of prospects rated MUCH higher than him. Short samples distort everything at this time of year, but so far he’s hit for a higher average and OBP from the left-hand side, while showing most of his power from the right hand side.
If this is the year that Santos stays on the field, I feel confident in saying that this is the year that Santos breaks out as a prospect.
Eric Silva (#40)
The Giants’ pitching heavy draft of 2021 included plenty of pitchers with significant “reliever risk.” Silva actually feels like one of the better bets in the group to stick as a starter … he could put his name solidly into the next wave of pitching prospects coming up in the Giants’ system with a strong full season debut.
What I say now: That was maybe a tad light on young Mr. Silva.
The lone high school pitcher that the Giants took in the 2021 draft, Silva has jumped out of the gate impressively, showcasing a mid-90s fastball with excellent spin rates and carry up in the zone, two different breaking balls with distinct shape and bite, and a changeup that misses bats. When it’s all working, it’s one of the more impressive pitch mixes in the system — he can throw all four pitches at any time and pick up strikeouts with any of them.
The hanging …. “but” with Silva is the caveat that he’s something of an undersized pitcher (at least, based on the size of pitchers these days), and it remains to be seen how well he’ll adjust to a starters’ workload. He’s lost some of the zing and the sharp movement of his pitches on the second time through a lineup in his early starts. But the Giants are treating him gingerly (as they are with nearly all of their Low A pitchers), so this is a question we might not have an answer for at the end of the year.
Silva’s ERA looks a little wonky right now thanks to one disaster inning against Visalia, but the overall look has been exceptional. He’s attacked the zone, producing 4 K for every BB issued, and shown impressive polish for a 19 year old. It’s not quite Kyle Harrison LOUD stuff, but this is the most impressive teenage pitcher in the organization at this point, and is poised to jump up the rankings.
Sean Roby (#36)
The basic tools are in place: legitimate, big time power, big exit velocities, a strong arm and solid set of defensive tools at 3b. But so, too, are the red flags: sky high strikeout rates and some questions about the hit tool.
What I say now: Yup! That’s about right!
But maybe what Will Wilson said to me the other day is a better quote: “I’ve never seen anybody make this stadium look small the way Roby does.” So maybe my quote above needed some kind of bells and whistles, or Charlie Brown Christmas Tree Farm level search lights placed around the phrase “BIG TIME POWER” to set it off appropriately.
Maybe this: 🚀🚀🚀🎆BIG TIME POWER!!!!🤯🤯💥💥💥
Nope. Still feels a little light somehow.
He’s been producing exit velocities in the 100 mph and up range all year — even on singles. He also continues to have a strong on base game, walking more than 10% of the time. The strikeouts are definitely a concern, as he’s whiffed about a third of the time at nearly every level. But the power is crazy big. In a way, he’s not that dissimilar from the Giants’ most recent addition, Kevin Padlo — there are holes in the swing and low averages and big Ks are likely going to be part of the package. But this sure is big power potential. In one day at the Diamond in Richmond, he hit two different balls where balls fear to tread — one off the far center field edge of the scoreboard and one high off the batters’ eye — both were 110 mph lasers that traveled over 400 feet. That’s going to play, even if the red flags are still around.
Grant McCray (#31)
What I said last winter:
I fully believe that, come this time next year, we’ll be seeing a much higher number next to McCray’s name in the rankings. If I had to point at one guy as my pick to click, a player who I thought might go all Ryan Murphy/Jairo Pomares on the 2022 season, that guy would be Grant McCray
What I say now: Seems like my work is done here! (slaps imaginary dust off hands)
True, my thought process this winter was very similar to my thought process now. McCray is one of the most talented players in the system — a true play maker as a defender, along the lines of a young Steven Duggar, with a growing feel to hit and a body that projects to have enough strength to produce average or better power down the line. That’s a pretty great player to have around! Like Santos, I didn’t feel I could boost him much higher in a deep system because we just hadn’t seen much of him on the field. A hip injury had delayed his 2021 season, most of which was spent in rehab at the complex level. So, three years after his draft, we’re still waiting to see McCray in action at a real minor league level.
This year we’re finally seeing the player he can become — a player who San Jose broadcaster Joe Ritzo described to me as a 1st round talent. The speed and defensive value is very clear — and it’s strong enough that it could get him to the majors all by itself, in that Juan Perez or Darren Ford sort of way. But there’s the potential for a nice offensive player in McCray’s package as well. He’s starting to show signs of delivering on the promise with a 15 for 33 tear this month (a tear that includes three home runs, three doubles, and three stolen bases). Nearly every part of his game is reminiscent of Duggar, to be honest, and it’s easy to see him growing into a very similar player. Now that’s good and bad, as Duggar has, himself, spent years coming frustratingly close to being a regular contributor to the big league roster without quite ever arriving, but there’s no doubt that a prospect of that quality should be making a top 10 appearance at some point.
Adrian Sugastey (#30)
What I said last winter:
“Let’s get to know him now, so you can impress all your “johnny come lately” friends who start to love him next year when he’s blowing up big time!”
What I say now: I mean, “blowing up big time” is sort of a relative term, isn’t it?
Honestly, I debated whether or not to include Sugastey on this list, given his struggles to start the year in San Jose, where he’s currently hitting .202/.309/.286. But, like McCray, Sugastey is a player about whom I have conviction on the all-around game. That might not be enough to push him up into Top 10 consideration after one year of full-season ball, but he should comfortably be a top 20 type player.
I think the more relevant quote from my piece in the winter was the grand conclusion:
He’ll play the entire 2022 season at age 19, experience the culture shock of navigating a foreign country for the first real time (with Scottsdale being a slightly more protected experience), get in front of crowds for the first time as a pro, and take on the grueling professional workload of a minor league catcher who has precious little help handling the bullpen sessions for a dozen or more teammates. Oh, and figure out how to hit against A ball opponents. It’s plenty to have on one teenager’s plate for the year, without any of us advocating for even greater challenges.
If that challenge meets with middling results, a return to Low A at 20 years old would hardly be the worst thing imaginable. But if he, once again, proves himself out as one of the more advanced hitters in his league, Sugastey is another player who could be primed to take a big leap up these rankings a year from now
Sugastey has a ton on his plate. ALL catchers do, 19 year old catchers handling a 17-man pitching staff of explosive power and stuff are in a category of their own. And 19 year old catchers who come from a Spanish speaking country learning to handle an explosive pitching staff that tends strongly towards American college players? You’ve upped the difficulty score to DO NOT TRY THIS AT HOME!
But this is a kid who really competes in all phases of the game. He’s shown a strong, accurate arm that can control running game, and he’s been excellent at blocking balls, even blocking balls that have some premium velo and break behind them. At the plate, he has a strong approach, a level swing that is geared for contact, and can turn and burn on balls when they’re left up in the zone. This is another great all around package, and I fully expect him to work his way up towards the top of the rankings before long.
Will Wilson (#25)
“Will Wilson still holds the basic traits of a starting 2b or successful utility infielder. He’s steady in the field, shows good instincts, and packs a lot of whallop into his small frame. He just needs to hit.”
What I say now: I was probably a little too harsh on a talented guy who had been pushed hard into the upper minors.
In my defense, I did start that piece with an extended riff on how recency bias triggers our stupid broken brains, but writing it and counteracting it were probably two different things. I knew getting pushed up to Double A after just 95 professional games — 46 of which came two years earlier on the other side of a giant pandemic ditch — but I still might not have put my thumb on the scale enough to account for the degree of difficulty.
And, in truth, as Wilson has admitted, there was definitely a steep learning curve last year as he struggled to lay off breaking pitches below the zone. But learning is what development is all about, and in his return to the level, Wilson has shown that he is moving up towards the top of that curve. He’s done a much better job of laying off the pitches that cause him trouble and a much better job of staying on the ball and driving it to all fields. He’s also looked more comfortable in the field this year — probably as a result of just being more comfortable over all.
The Giants focus on making their practice harder than game situations — higher velocity, crazier spin and movement, harder bounces — in order to make the game seem almost easier. That seems to be having a real effect with Wilson this year. The game doesn’t seem to be coming at him as fast and as a result, his native skills are coming out more naturally. He’s cut his strikeout rate by about 10 percent and bumped his walk rate up 7 percent. Fewer strikeouts and more walks are indicative of a better process — and with 83 PA, he’s nearing the area where those numbers become stable and predictive. He’s also hitting for significantly more power this year (.261 ISO).
It was no doubt a little over-reactive of me to bump Wilson down lower than 20 last year. I don’t see myself making the same mistake twice.
This doesn’t even mention the two hot names from yesterday’s Minor Lines — Vaun Brown and Nick Sinacola, two late-round sleepers who are starting to put an imprint on this season. It’s always tough to get a read on pop up college players in Low A, so I’ll take a little more time considering that talented twosome. In the meantime, who are your favorite risers this year?
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You had him at #13 so not sure if he really qualifies as a riser in the sense of some of these others but Casey Schmitt. Loving what he's doing so far this year.
I can't remember exactly what was written about Vaun Brown when he was drafted but it made him very intriguing. Picked at a place in the draft with fairly high bust potential, but maybe very high boom potential. I'd say he's my favorite to keep an eye on right now.