Hamburgers, Hot Dogs, and Free For All Mailbags!
Happy Memorial Day to everybody! Hope you enjoyed some burgers (beef or soy), some suds (beers or shrubs), some good company (family or friends), and some winning baseball! That’s a pretty great holiday combination!
So let’s keep the good holiday spirits going with a celebratory Free For All Mailbag! Hopefully, everybody asked really positive-minded questions today, because I’m in a positive mood (as I tend to be after grilling and suds and good company).
So let’s get to your questions, right after I get in a quick plug for subscription to the website. Subscriptions, after all, are the burgers (or tofu burgers) that keep the light on in this place!
Speaking of which, Gary pops in with a question that warms the cockles of my heart:
Gary
Love these and really appreciate your work. I wonder if you could get more specific on how your loyal readers could help. For example, should I retweet your tweets more to my humble followers? Links to your podcast? What moves the needle the most? I think people really want to support you but are unsure of how.
That’s really sweet of you, Gary! First and foremost, I can’t over-emphasize that you’re already doing the most important thing to support me — read my work, interact, take part in conversations, and generally make this whole site feel like a living, healthy, place. That’s true for my free subscribers as well as the paid ones. I can’t thank any of you enough for caring.
Beyond that, I suppose that sending my posts out wherever you do social media (twitter, Facebook, Instagram, or Substack’s own Notes, which you can find on your browser or Substack App) with your own words of encouragement or praise. Or heck, just good old fashioned word of mouth will help. There R Giants will always have a pretty niche audience, because of the tight focus of my work, but wherever you might find folks who are interested, please spread the word. And much appreciation for any help you give.
Ah, but Gary does also have some baseball questions, as befits a mailbag. So let’s get to the meat of things and stop the promotions!
If we kept the bar for starters at "potential to be better than a 5th starter", who is on that list and in what general order? Obviously Harrison is 1, Whisenhunt a likely 2, Winn 3? Do you think any of the Silva, Mercedes, Maldonado, Teng, etc. group are heading that direction or would you need to see a major leap? Maybe Bednar and Crawford are wildcards as well.
To be honest, I’m not sure that you can go past that 1 and 2 of yours right now, with, yes Reggie Crawford and to some degree Will Bednar playing the wildcards. And I say that because as we’ve seen, the Giants have a pretty high bar that they’re asking guys to cross there. Tristan Beck has good stuff and command and a wide repertoire, and it’s pretty clear they haven’t had much interest in giving him a look as a starter. I suppose because they’re looking at their internal version of a Stuff+ model and seeing that aside from the slider or sweeper, most of his pitches are less than major league average (based on Eno Sarris’ Stuff+ model on Fangraphs, Beck’s fastball is at 86, the curve at 76, and the change at a dreadful 56, with 100 being major league average). That’s from a guy who looked very much like a potential #3 or #4 pitcher at various points in his prospect life.
Which is all a way of saying that further progress needs to be made for any current starter in the system to clear that bar, and I’m not sure I’d be willing to place my bet on any of the arms as a clear major league starter after the two lefties. If you go back to my Depth Chart series in the winter, for the left-handed starter group, I put 50 grades or better on three guys: Harrison, Whisenhunt, and Crawford — and I noted that Crawford’s grade was something of a giant shoulder shrug, because so many of the important details have yet to be filled in. I think that 50 grade is really the line we’re talking about here — the average major league starter. That probably boosts you over that 5th starter bar and into more of a solid rotation option (for the starters, I gave Sean Manaea a 50, mostly based on his track record prior to last year, and Alex Wood a 55).
For the right-handed group, however, I topped out at 45 (given to Mason Black, Landen Roupp, and Eric Silva), with a bunch of 40+ and 40s behind that trio — which is right at the cusp. They could find something that boosts them up to 50 (a new pitch, a different pitch mix, improved command), or they could stay right at that mark that puts them very much in the Beck Bucket. Of course, we have two months more information now, and some guys have certainly helped themselves in those two months (particularly Hayden Birdsong and Liam Simon), but other than age (and with age, more opportunities to improve with passing years), it’s hard to see anybody in that group RIGHT NOW having more to offer than Beck does in terms of stuff, arsenal, and command.
I don’t mean this to come off as negative. That 4th starter bar is REALLY high! And I think for everybody I named here, there are still significant steps forward needed to reach it. If anybody in this group develops a real changeup it would be massive step forward. Remember, Logan Webb was a 4-seam/curveball guy in the minors. That fearsome changeup of his? It really didn’t exist back in San Jose or Richmond. He dabbled in it, but the conviction that made that his killer pitch is something that came in the majors, as did that terrific sinker. Really, for all of these guys, you can imagine them reaching that bar at some point, but not without some big steps forward coming at some point.
As much as I get excited about McCray, it seems like that K rate is a kiss of death, to the point where he'd likely be a 3-4 spots lower for me than consensus. Do we have great examples of prospects who significantly reduced their K-rates as they progressed? I assume the natural tendency is for it to get worse, not better.
It’s a huge red flag for sure, and could absolutely be the determining factor in how far Grant McCray’s career progresses. I’m not entirely sure I’d say the “natural tendency” is to get worse. Many do, of course, as they progress, but a lot of major league starters and stars simply maintained their K rate as they moved up, showing some base line level of contact skill that they revert to upon adjusting to each new level.
Cutting strikeout rates, as you imagine, is a harder thing to do. But is it unheard of? Not entirely. Right now, one of the biggest stories in the wider prospect world is Cincinnati’s terrific prospect Elly de la Cruz (think of him as a slightly shorter clone of Oneil Cruz with all the terrifying tools that entails). De la Cruz has always had a strikeout rate over 30%, and it’s always been the biggest red flag on his scouting card. But he’s been cutting that down significantly at Triple A this year, down to a more manageable 26% — and it’s been even lower over his past 75 PA.
The aforementioned Oneil, is another who brought his strikeouts down as he moved up, starting at 35% in the lowest levels of pro ball and shaving that literally in half by the time he got to Triple A, many years later. Cody Bellinger is a rarer example of a player who significantly cut his K rate down while in the majors, after running a pretty consistent ~28% through the minors. If you want to go back in time a bit, Nelson Cruz is the touchstone for all “unusual development arc” comps, and he applies here. He was striking out 25% of the time in A ball back when that was considered beyond the pail, but has been a consistent 20% K guy over his long and productive career. Lorenzo Cain, similar to McCray in terms of being a terrific high school athlete, struck out a fairly high (for the times) clip of 20% and more before turning into an excellent contact hitter in the majors
So yeah, I can cherry pick successful examples if I look hard enough — but there’s no doubt that this is going to be the crucible on which McCray’s development is decided. He has the tools to play in the majors, and could end up a 4th OF type even without much improvement on this issue, but it’s absolutely going to determine his eventual ceiling. And if, as you fearfully imply, McCray ends up washing out at some level, contact skills will almost certainly be the tide coming down the sluice.
I always wonder about the guys that are going up and down between the bigs and AAA. Does their post rate go up and down accordingly? Do the Giants pay to house them in SF. Thanks
I’m going to assume, Kristie, that you mean “pay rates” there. And, if so, the answer is “Yes.” When Beck or Sean Hjelle or Brett Wisely or Bryce Johnson spend a few days or weeks at the big league level, their pay check goes up substantially to a prorated version of the major league minimum (currently $720,000 for the 2023 season) a nice week’s wage. When they return to Sacramento, those players make a minor league salary — HOWEVER, for players on the 40-man, that salary is determined by the major league CBA and so is different than most of their teammates. As I read the current CBA, it looks like players currently on their first major league contract (e.g., Beck, Wisely, Keaton Winn) make no less than $58,000, while players on their second contract (e.g., Johnson, Hjelle) make no less than $117,000. It’s a bit of legalese, but that’s my interpretation of the contract.
As for housing, while the organizations are now obligated to provide housing for all of their minor league players (a huge breakthrough of the last couple of years), that ONLY applies to non-40 man players. So guys like Winn and Ramos, and, lower down, Randy Rodriguez and Jose Cruz, are actually not provided housing at the minor or major league levels, though they do have the increased salary benefits to help offset their additional costs. It does sound like a lot of the kids going up to the majors now are staying at the hotel across the street that Kuip and Baseball Marty are always advertising. So to that degree, they are saved the hassle of searching for a place to stay.
One of the consequences of pitch limits for the starters is that more pitches have to be thrown by others (Duh!). The farm has tried to get around that to an extent by having tandem/piggyback starters but at the same time it seems like there are a lot of innings being thrown by bullpen guys who just aren't as strong, leading to some ugly innings. Am I imagining this? If this is not just in my head and leads to some Ls that might otherwise have been Ws, is that just accepted as a necessary by-product of Farhan's strategy of building guys up/avoiding injury? Are we seeing the composition of the affiliates start to change in terms of the number of 'starters' being carried?
This is a popular one as Say Hey Kid chimed in that he wanted to ask the very same question.
It’s a hard question to wrap one’s arms around, but I think absolutely we’re seeing the composition of the affiliates changing — and that’s in large part due to the influx of starters over the last two drafts.
Let’s take Richmond this year. They started the season with: Black, Matt Frisbee, Wil Jensen, Ryan Murphy, Carson Seymour, Nick Swiney, Kai-Wei Teng, and Nick Zwack — eight different pitchers who had spent their careers, up to this point, as starters. Roupp, another starter, was set to join them after a few weeks. As the year has progressed, some of these have maintained a steady 4 innings per game march, some have turned into swingmen, picking up 2 or 3 innings where needed (Jensen, predominantly has filled this role), and some have transitioned into more traditional reliever roles (Frisbee, Swiney).
This all seemed to start with the 2022 group in San Jose, where the team opened with literally 11 potential starting pitchers on the roster (Bednar, Black, Seth Lonsway, Trevor McDonald, Manuel Mercedes, Matt Mikulski, Roupp, Silva, Nick Sinacola, Esmerlin Vinicio, and Winn). The challenge wasn’t to find enough pitchers for the innings, but rather enough innings for the pitchers. Roupp, for instance, really didn’t get steady innings in San Jose, and consequently, his year didn’t really take off until he progressed up to Eugene.
As to the question of whether this strategy results in more ugly innings — I don’t think we can say that. For one thing, we’d have to presume that tiring starters wouldn’t get into ugly innings in the 5th, 6th, or 7th if given the opportunity to go that far, which is a presumption I wouldn’t be willing to make. And, secondly, as shown, there are plenty of arms ready to take down multiple innings of most all of these staffs.
I would say that the reason we’re seeing ugly innings hasn’t changed any from years past. Some guys are struggling with moves to higher levels. The level of talent can be very different across a staff at lower classifications. Guys are working on new grips or pitches, or mechanics and changes haven’t quite clicked in yet. Or maybe players are having trouble with their mindset or confidence, or even off-field issues. Things snowball on guys in the minors. All the basic development stuff, in other words.
How do you view Whisenhunt’s performance so far this year? Is this what he’s expected to do as a college arm in High A with a true weapon in his arsenal, or has he exceeded expectations?
I asked this very question of Baseball America’s Josh Norris when he was on the podcast, and I tend to agree with his assessment: he’s doing what’s expected of a guy with his pedigree, experience, and specific arsenal. I said going into the year that Low A wasn’t going to tell us much about Whisenhunt’s development, because having a 70 grade changeup is simply a cheat code for the hitters of that level. They can’t do anything with it. He knows they can’t do anything with it. And, when push comes to shove, if in a two-strike situation or maybe some traffic on the basepaths, it really is too much to expect of someone not to go a weapon of that magnitude when they have it in their back pocket — even if working on the fastball command or improving consistency of the curve might be better development activities. First and foremost, these guys are competitors and they want to compete with the hitter over the fate of the present at bat.
I know that The Athletic’s Andy Baggarly (one of my very favorite Giants’ scribes and a person I respect a lot) has been beating the “Whisenhunt can reach the majors this year” drum pretty heavily of late. Probably, he’s getting hints from up above that are encouraging him in this, and thus, it makes sense to listen to what he says. I watch Whisenhunt pitch and am a little more cautious, personally. I think that once he reaches Double A, we’ll begin to see a lot better takes than A ball hitters are giving him, and better swings, particularly against the fastball and curve. Once we see what better level hitters do against his non-changeup pitches, then we’ll have a real sense of how wide our eyes should be, exactly, and how fast to expect him to move.
I do think he’ll have an opportunity to start showing us that against Double A pitchers within the next few weeks, if he keeps pitching like he has.
What are the organization’s thoughts on Jimmy Glowenke? Seems like he might be having a breakout season—although he’s a bit old for A+.
When I run into a Giants’ player development official — chatting around the fields in spring training, or on my trips to the various affiliates — I’ll often start conversations by asking: “who’s looking good?” or “who should I be watching for?” Without fail, the answer I’ll always get from virtually any coach or rover is: “EVERYBODY, ROGER!”
And I think that really is the way this organization looks at the players they have at every level. They truly believe that all of these guys have the potential to do great things, if it can be marshaled, channeled, developed in the right way. I want to make that point here, because I think I don’t make it often enough. They are fully invested in making every single player the best he can be and never EVER look at guys as “filler” or “org dudes.”
That said, I think that what Glowenke is doing this season is really gladdening the hearts of a lot of Giants’ officials. While I haven’t necessarily spoken to people about Glowenke specifically, I know that there was a general feeling last year that strikeouts across the farm were out of control, and there was, overall, far too many “home run or bust” approaches going on around the organization. When the rosters came out in April, I noted that there was a noticeable trend to hold guys back who hadn’t shown proper command of the strike zone in the previous year (hitters or pitchers), and Glowenke was one of the guys who, to me, fit in this mold.
So, absolutely, they have to be excited about what he’s accomplished so far in his return to the level. Cutting a K rate from 31% to 14% is a substantial development (Hey Gary, did you see that? Here’s a K rate lowering to take note of. Tyler Fitzgerald, too, now that I think of it). And yet he’s hitting the ball just as hard, if not harder than he did last year. This is much more of the all around hitter that Glowenke was in college, and I think the Giants are pretty excited about it. He had a spell where illness took him off the field for awhile in April, but if he continues this kind of production, he’s definitely putting himself in line for the same kind of bump up to the next level as we saw for Carter Aldrete last year.
Glowenke is essentially the only guy in the organization with a >.200 ISO and a <20% K rate — and he’s way WAY below that mark — which is definitely going to open eyes in this organization.
Do you think the lack of competition with the NWL being so small hampers development in seeing too many of the same players in opposition?
I was talking with Richmond Manager Dennis Pelfrey about this recently, and he posited the theory that the compressed nature of NWL competition is what makes the step up to Double A so difficult. After spending essentially two years facing the same guys all the time (the Cal League and NWL are nearly a perfect Venn Diagram of organizational affiliates, so if you move up a year at a time, it’s possible to get a huge percentage of your reps against a pretty small pool of competitors), suddenly players are facing, for the first time ever, talent from a diverse and broad new set of organizations, all polished to a high level of proficiency. That really can make a big difference.
But you are getting at something else I’ve wondered about the past couple of years. Two years ago, my trip to Eugene corresponded with a week against an affiliate that really was lacking in potential big league talent (I won’t mention which organization that was). And I did find myself thinking through that week: what good is this really? If, in a league that small, you get a couple of rosters in any given year that are really down, talent-wise, a hitter could potentially go two or three weeks without facing off against a potential big league arm. And, yeah, I can see where that is harmful from a development perspective.
Just like players need more reps to develop, more variety within those reps has certainly got to play an important part in the story. Still, I don’t think there’s much to be done about it. MLB made regional logic an important part of their restructuring of the minor leagues, and the stubborn fact is that there just are way more MLB teams on the eastern half of the country than the western half, and those eastern time zone teams really don’t want to have affiliates in the west (that’s why Fresno is now a Low A club, rather than a Triple A one).
What happened to Clay Helvey? He was really good in the past. He pitched last night for the Rivercats- I was at the game and he could barely throw strikes. His numbers for the year are terrible. Is he recovering from surgery? Thanks
Poor Clay is really going through it this year, isn’t he? There is always, I think, some tendency of pitchers first arriving in the PCL to suddenly start walking more guys than normal. They get into Reno and El Paso or wherever and see what happens to pitches that cross the plate, and see how their breaking balls aren’t breaking as much, or their fastballs lose their run and get blasted to the moon. Moving to (and off) the fringe of the strike zone becomes a natural defense mechanism.
But that really hasn’t been the story with Helvey, who simply has been unable to get in the strike zone all season. In his very first game at the new level (at home in relatively pitcher friendly Sacramento), he walked three of the five batters he faced — and things haven’t gotten much better from there. Currently, he has issued free passes to more than 1/5 of the batters he’s faced — 20 BB in 92 batters. And that’s no way to survive!
I did see a little of this when he moved up to Richmond last year. Though his numbers were excellent overall, he did tend to get into long at bats with some frequency, and the walk rate crept up just a smidge from where it was in Eugene. My take on this when I saw him pitch was simply that the Double A hitters were able to identify the big break on his curve and lay off it. A ball hitters swung at that pitch, but Double A hitters were able to see that he ran it off the plate and out of the bottom of the strike zone, and didn’t need to offer at it.
Helvey is almost certainly a guy whom the ABS is really hurting because he doesn’t command his curve well enough to land it in the strike zone — and the break is so big that hitters at that level can identify it early and just let it go. Until he can throw that pitch for strikes, I’m not sure things are going to improve for him at that level, unfortunately. He’s a good arm and a good kid, and this has been really hard to watch. Hopefully, he’s able to make an adjustment and start to see some success and turn his year around.
Carter Howell is putting together a really nice season but nothing has been said about him, like he’s Mr. Irrelevant (Brock Purdy of their system?). He had nice small college numbers and looks like a good defender. Do you have any scouting info on him? I know he’s old for the level but small college experience.
Hey, now! I gave Mr. Howell the full-on “video highlight” treatment not once, but twice this week! Albeit, let me clear up right here and now that I somehow managed to place Sioux Falls in NORTH Dakota, rather than where it properly belongs in SOUTH Dakota, and for that I much apologize. I’ve BEEN to Sioux Falls. I know what state it’s in! But sometimes, the ol’ typer fingers really go off on a bender of their own. Sorry, Carter!
But yes, he’s been sliding along in relative anonymity this year while putting up terrific numbers (check out his many “League Leader” notices in today’s Stats Review!). My friend Brian Recca, who does a great job covering college draft prospects for Prospects Live, is a firm believer that D3 schools are badly slept on, and scouts and the public at large miss a lot of great talent due to that particular bias.
That almost certainly plays a part in Howell’s case, coming from Augustana University (in, yes, SOUTH Dakota). That said, when I’ve pinged scouts who have sat on San Jose games this year, I haven’t gotten any mention of him as someone piquing their interest. I saw Howell several times this spring, and he looked to me like he provided good coverage in center field, was relatively rangy and athletic looking out there, with a reasonably strong arm. At the plate, he showed a good approach and a nice flat swing that can spray line drives around. There are some elements in there of the type of player who tends to exceed scouting expectations — but, of course, those players tend to be the types of have to “prove out” level by level, so time will tell with Mr. Howell whether or not he’s the one to prove the doubters long. Lovie, no doubt, will be a believer all along.
What should we look out for with Reggie Crawford in SJ? What type of hitter/pitcher is he and where do you think he'll end up by the end of the year?
BIG! POWERFUL!!! ATHLETE!!!!
It will be very interesting to see what, exactly, the Giants’ development plan for Crawford is this year. Farm Director Kyle Haines was very clear to me that: 1) the pitching development plan is the first priority; and 2) they’re not going to want to pile up innings on an arm that has missed more than a year and a half from Tommy John rehab. My guess is that we’re going to see him restricted to two inning stints for a good long while, and the innings are kept in the 50 range for the year? But that’s a wild guess on my part. I’m fairly certain that they won’t let him approach 100 innings in his first season.
Around those pitching outings, they’re going to let him hit — keeping him at DH almost certainly. That’s fun and exciting, but Haines has been pretty clear that this is more to keep the competitor in Crawford engaged around his slow pitching ramp up. It’s more of a case of “he likes to hit and we’ll see…” than it is a real commitment to developing a two-way player, is the feeling I get.
As for what type of pitcher/hitter you’re going to see? On the mound, you should see heat that pushes close to the century mark, with a wicked slider to pair off of that heat. At the plate, there’s some huge power when he gets into a ball, but a lot of questions about the actual hit tool. Expect big hits and big swing and misses. But above all, expect power to come out of this incredibly powerful athlete!
San Jose beat Fresno Grizzlies (Rox), 4-3 (10 inn)
Let’s finish off today’s Mailbag with a quick roundup of yesterday’s special Memorial Day game in San Jose. Onil Perez preceded the holiday fireworks explosion with some thrills of his own. Coming to the plate in the bottom of the 10th with the bases loaded and one out, Perez walked it off by sending a ball into deep center field over the drawn in outfield for his lone hit of the day.
It’s an important week for the Giants, who have the chance to really take control of their playoff destiny. With only about three weeks left in the first half, San Jose came into this week with a five game lead over this very Fresno team. Pulling out the extra inning win in the series opener stretched that lead to six, and if they can add onto it anymore before the week is done, they’ll have done a pretty good job of putting the first half title to bed — ultimately giving them a home series advantage in the first round of the Cal League playoffs.
That’s all ahead of us, but Chapter 1 of the series certainly had that tense feeling of stretch run baseball. The Giants jumped out to an early 3-0 lead thanks to a couple of guys who really could use a good day. Though Thomas Gavello has had the team’s biggest bat for most of the first two months, he’d been battling things lately with a 5 for 36 stretch that had seen his numbers drop across the board. In his first two at bats, Gavello led off innings with hits, and both times he’d come around to score on singles from Dilan Rosario, who came into the game batting just .196 with four RBI.
On a day when the Grizzlies collected just two hits, that might well have been it, had Nomar Medina not suffered a bizarre bout of strikezone-itis. Medina entered the game with just eight walks this year in 24.1 IP. His high for walks in a game on the season was just two. But heading to the mound for his second inning of work, Medina suddenly couldn’t buy a strike. He walked three of the first four batters in the inning — and all three were walked on just four, not particularly competitive pitches. Medina found his way back into the strike zone, but all three runners would come around to score (with the help of some spotty defensive work) to tie the game. Medina and Tyler Vogel would then allow just two Grizzlies’ base runners over the game’s final four innings, setting the stage for Perez’ heroics.
Diego Velasquez had an eight-game hit streak stopped on Sunday. But while he’s been hitless the last two games, he hasn’t stopped reaching base, drawing three walks over that time. His walk rate has pushed up to 10% and his OBP is now .409. Where does that stand among the Cal League leaders? You’ll just have to check out the weekly Stats Review, coming later today!
Coming Up
Sacramento (TBD) at Tacoma (TBD), 6:05 pm, MiLBTV
Richmond (Murphy) vs Erie (TBD), 3:35 pm, MiLBTV
Eugene (TBD) at Vancouver (TBD), 7:05 pm, MiLBTV
San Jose: OFF
Well, that’s not really a lot of information, is it folks? We’ll see who we see come game time. Whoever takes the mound, you’ll hear about it here tomorrow at There R Giants, where we never take our eye off the ball!
That is, you’ll hear about it if you’re a subscriber!
🧡 Gilligan’s Island 😂
Sacramento (Winn)