It's the "So Long A-Ball" Free For All Mailbag
This is the penultimate Free For All Mailbag of the 2023 minor league season. I think I’m going to have just one more of these next Tuesday, and then I’ll downshift to more like one a month during the offseason. So, if you have any questions you’ve been saving up for me all year, get them in this coming week, ‘cuz after that the mailbag is getting stored in the attic for awhile, and who knows what manner of creepy crawlies will be getting into it then!
In the meantime, I can see the drift of your minds is beginning to point to the offseason as well. We have questions about the Rule 5 draft, the Arizona Fall League, and even a few that are looking forward to spring training. Let’s yank open the cinch rope and dump the mailbag out on the desk and see what we have to answer.
Justin Wishkoski started his pro career with 7 walks before striking out, or 10 walks before his second K, if you prefer. Are there any other great walking streaks to open a pro career in Giants org history?
Oh, lordy. To the record books we go!
First let me say that I don’t have a direct line into the Elias Sports Bureau, and there’s no comprehensive way of answering this question that doesn’t involve me clicking through literally hundreds and hundreds of Baseball Reference pages. Of course, I only had the patience to click through fifties and fifties of B-Ref pages before downshifting to a more random sampling method that involved searching my memory banks to try and come up with some likely candidates and checking their records. Even there, we run into the issue that game-level data only exists on B-Ref going back about 15 seasons, so beyond that we can only guess.
But with all of that caveated away, let’s talk walks! One great place to find bases on balls, of course, is in the low, LOW level of pitching known as the DSL. I have often joked that it would be a great experiment to see what kind of walk rate a player could post in the DSL if he simply never swung the bat the entire year. I’m willing to bet such a player could get his OBP up to .300 at least!
Indeed, DSL numbers can often fool fans into thinking that a player is a model of patience and discipline, while in fact being something of a free swinger. There’s no greater example of that than former Giant Hector Sanchez, a notoriously free swinging big league catcher who, as a 17- and 18-year-old in the DSL, walked 55 times while striking out just 44.
Onil Perez, who had to wait nearly two full years in between signing his contract and making his pro debut, was another catcher who used advanced bat to ball skills to keep his BB/K headed in the right direction. Perez recorded a strikeout in his pro debut, on July 12, 2021, but after that he went on a Wishkoskiesque run, recording seven walks before his next strikeout over the next five games. Near the end of his first month, he had a spectacular 9 BB to 2 K ratio, and ended the season with twice as many walks (30) as strikeouts (15). Ironically, those are the exact same numbers that Ismael Munguia produced as a 17 year old in his first pro season, which shows once again, that outstanding KK/B numbers in the DSL might be more indicative of strong contact skills than of an advanced approach.
About a decade ago, a young, slight middle infielder named Hengerber Medina seemed to recognize very early on that the saying “a walk’s as good as a hit” described his best possible path to advancement. Medina walked three times in his pro debut (June 19, 2012), and before he’d recorded three strikeouts on the year, he had piled up 11 walks — and added three HBP just for fun! By the end of his first season, he’d compiled 26 walks, been hit by a pitch on seven occasions, and struck out just 16 times, leading to an outstanding OBP of .434. As the seasons went by, however, it became apparent that not swinging the bat was the thing Medina did best as an offensive player, and after three seasons in which he hit just .228, he attempted to continue his career as a pitcher (making it all the way to High A).
Moving up to a higher level, and more in line with Wishkoski’s case, you won’t be surprised to learn who many of the better walk artists were. Buster Posey did strike out twice in his first three games as a pro, but then reeled off eight consecutive walks in his very abbreviated debut. Brandon Belt was a prodigious walker from the get-go, though his tendency to take borderline third strikes was also apparent early on — especially with the low level of umpiring one tends to find in A ball. But Belt did have a strong 12 walk to 4 K ratio by the end of his first month as a pro — spent entirely in High A, which ups the difficulty level significantly. In that first year, he walked 93 times in 135 games (struck out 99), and moved all the way up to Triple A.
Other familiar names who at least walked more than they struck out right off the bat included Matt Duffy (26 walks and 22 Ks in his debut with Salem-Keizer) and Joe Panik (28 to 25, also at Salem-Keizer. A significantly less familiar name would be Ben Woodbury, an undrafted free agent from Missouri State who signed in the same 2008 summer as Posey. Woodbury didn't start out as spectacularly as Wishkoski, as he had a two strikeout game almost immediately. Still, in his first year as a pro, he walked 24 times and struck out just 11, posting an OBP of .432. The next year, he hit .336 over 41 games with Low-A Augusta, although with a mere .357 OBP, and that was it for his pro career.
Finally, while we don’t have game level data easily accessible going back to 1993, we need to carve out space to mention ol’ Double Flap himself, Bill Mueller. Taken as a 14th rounder (also out of Missouri State), Mueller hit a solidly respectable .300 for Everett in the old short-season NWL as a 22-year-old in his pro debut. But on top of that, he walked 42 times while striking out just 17. The following year, he jumped all the way up to High-A San Jose and actually improved those numbers, piling up an astounding 103 walks in 544 PA, while striking out just 47 times. That was the template for Muller’s steady and fairly rapid climb up the minor league ladder. Over his four years in the minors, Mueller walked 261 to 171 strikeouts, while hitting with an almost metronomic consistency: .300, .302, .305, .302. Over the course of his 11-year MLB career, he had an 11.1% walk rate, an 11.7% K rate, and hit .291. And if all that’s not enough, Mueller is one of the few players who can lay claim to having walked-off Mariano Rivera.
I sucked up a little excess oxygen with that lengthy answer, so let’s strive for brevity from here on out, shall we?
If the Giants were to keep one of the players on the 40 man roster who are seemingly on the outs—Heliot Ramos, Joey Bart, David Villar—who would you keep?
A lot of people have suggested that Joey Bart would make a perfect platoon partner with Patrick Bailey, and I can see that point of view (disregarding Bailey’s bizarrely poor performance from the left-hand side this season). But I do think that, for a variety of reasons, it’s got to be hard for Bart to craft a career going forward in the Giants’ organization. Not to put too fine a point on it, he’s never really given the Giants’ current front office a lot of reason to put their faith in him either. Though he’s worked hard and made great strides as a defensive catcher, the offensive potential that made him a #2 overall pick has really never been in evidence. Over parts of four seasons, he’s a 75 wRC+ hitter in the majors and, perhaps even more astonishing, for the past two years he’s been a below average hitter in the PCL. At this point, I think he needs a fresh start and a change of scenery somewhere if he’s ever going to reach some substantial portion of his potential.
I think my answer to this question would be Heliot Ramos. He’s not a perfect prospect, by any measure, and I’m certainly not laying any prop bets on his odds of becoming a successful big leaguer. But he’s still pretty young — he just turned 24 last Thursday — and he’s been doing a much better job this year of putting his raw strength to use impacting the baseball. In 2022, Ramos had the best Exit Velocities in the system, but wasted that hard contact with too many ground balls and too many opposite field fly balls (where EV doesn’t prove to be as effective). This year, he’s hitting the ball just as hard, but cut his ground ball rate significantly and he’s getting to his pull side power and launching balls. Obviously, he hasn’t had a ton of major league time in 2023, but in the few opportunities he’s gotten, he’s shown some of that same transition. He didn’t have a single hit to the pull side in his 22 MLB PA last year. This year, he not only has pull side hits, he’s shown pull side power.
There’s still chase and swing and miss here, but if you can get to power like that with some regularity (while also being a good fielder and base runner), you can certainly be valuable in the big leagues (I mean, we’ve all been watching J.D. Davis this year, right?). Ramos has been one of the really pleasant stories of the year, and I like the direction he’s trending in. I think it would be a mistake to walk away from him just now.
Dennis
Might you have an update on Jairo Pomares and Hunter Bishop? Could both play fall ball or winter ball? Is Pomares a Rule 5 risk? Can they still develop?
Hunter Bishop is the clear-cut one of this pair. He had Tommy John surgery at the beginning of April. Position players obviously have a quicker rehab period from that surgery than pitchers do, but it’s still standard to be out about eight months or so. That probably puts him on track to resume baseball activities after the New Year and start getting ready for spring training in February/March.
Jairo Pomares’ status is less certain. He’s been bothered by back and leg issues all year, and two different attempts at starting a rehab were quickly aborted. He played eight games in June before disappearing for another six weeks, and then came back for just one game in August before getting shut down again. This seems to be a recurring issue for him, as back troubles were responsible for his delayed start to the 2021 season as well. Pomares is a fairly muscle-bound body type, so repeated strains and soft-tissue issues could be a long-term concern as he ages and his youthful athleticism wanes.
It’s virtually impossible to say when or where he might be able to play — we’ve watched Will Bednar struggle with the same sort of lower back issues that have mostly kept him off the field for the past 15 months. When backs are cranky, it’s hard to find a roadmap forward other than: “wait for it to stop being sore.” I suspect that’s where we’re at with Pomares.
That said, neither of these two players are at all risks to be selected in the Rule 5 draft. Both were available in last year’s Rule 5 draft and were not in any danger of being selected then when both had finished the season healthy. They’re in even less danger of being selected when nobody’s seen them on a field for a year. Neither really brings an up-the-middle profile that teams tend to focus their Rule 5 picks on and neither has had upper levels success (indeed, it would be a stretch to say that either has really been successful even at the High A level). There’s no danger in continuing to expose these two to the Rule 5 draft.
As for your final question, you never want to close the book on potential — Mike Yastrzemski is a constant example for Giants’ fans of that lesson. That said, time is probably not on Bishop’s side at this point. He was fairly raw coming out of college and really needed reps to develop — reps that he’s basically never gotten. At some point the age (he’ll turn 26 next year), the injuries and the lack of time on the field catch up with you. He still has massive power, but the rest of his game has a lot of growth needs. An appearance in the majors isn’t out of the question, but it’s hard to project much more than that, and that’s assuming that the constant injury issues abate in the future. Pomares isn’t as far behind, developmentally speaking, I don’t believe. However, he is a one-tool guy who really needs that one tool to pay off pretty massively to be a successful big leaguer. He’s got to mash and mash hard — and that means a less aggressive approach at the plate and a better ability to recognize spin. And, as is the case with Bishop, you can’t get better at those things when you’re not on the field.
I notice in your interview with the Spanish-as-first-language players there is most always an interpreter. Is that just for clarity in your interviews? Seems to me that most of them probably have some proficiency in English just by being here and hanging out with English speaking teammates or am I wrong on that?
“Some proficiency” and “proficient enough to speak comfortably in a public platform” are two very different things. Yes, by the time the Spanish-speaking players make it to Double A, they can laugh and joke with their English-speaking teammates and receive instruction from English-speaking coaches, and I will chat with many of them around the batting cages myself. But that’s a far cry from feeling comfortable enough to tell your story in recorded sessions with members of the media — or necessarily even to understand media members clearly (I know I can talk a little too fast, too idiomatically, and too mumbly for even native English speakers to understand me clearly sometimes).
Personally, I have a decent amount of experience with trying to navigate my way in a culture that doesn’t speak my native language. My wife has family in Germany whom we have been visiting almost annually for many years, and try as I do to learn the language, I have only ever rudimentarily succeeded. When we’re staying with her cousins or aunt, I can more or less make myself understood, but I can’t communicate even a small fraction of what I might like to say to my extended family or participate really meaningfully in conversations around the table, and sometimes when I do toss in a comment, I’ll get those confused looks that let me know I’ve misunderstood something badly (or failed spectacularly in trying to translate my own thought).
The opportunities for misunderstanding things in translation — whether it’s missing subtle nuances of words or sayings, or completely failing to grasp the basics of a sentence — or so proliferate, that without having a true fluency, it’s best to guide an interview through the native language, if only because that’s where people feel comfortable and can express themselves as themselves and let some of their personality and true thoughts and feelings come through.
PG is probably spurred to ask this question by my most recent podcast which included an interview with Victor Bericoto, which I think you should listen to while reading the rest of this mailbag.
Kristie
Why do you think the Giants haven’t called up Tyler Fitzgerald?
I think we should first acknowledge that Fitzgerald really hasn’t forced the issue with his play this year. He has performed well, but he hasn’t really excelled in a way that kicks down doors. His Sacramento season line of .280/.348/.494 is basically a league average performance — he’s a little under the PCL’s average OBP of .369, but a little above its average SLG of .457.
Still, league average is not the kind of thing you want in minor league performances — you want to see players rising above the level of their competition, because the next step on the ladder is much, much higher. Consider that players who have badly struggled in San Francisco this year have absolutely dominated in the PCL. Wade Meckler has a 181 wRC+ in the PCL this year, and Luis Matos’ is 144. Even Brett Wisely, who is posting an unbelievably low 37 wRC+ over 131 PA in San Francisco, sports a well-above average 120 in Sacramento. David Villar had a league-best 148 wRC+ with Sacramento in 2022.
Beyond those simple, big picture numbers, Fitzgerald still isn’t quite proving to the Giants that he can “control the zone.” Though he’s done an admirable job of cutting down the strikeouts — down to 23% this year in the PCL after striking out almost a third of the time in Double A last year — he still grades out a little weaker than the Giants like on some of those “under the hood” numbers. He’s swung at 32% of pitches outside the strike zone in the PCL this year — and if you had to choose just one number to guide your guesses at the Giants’ internal evaluations of players, chase rate wouldn’t be a bad way to go. His overall contact rate of 72% is on the low side even among his Sacramento teammates, as is his in-zone contact rate of 80%. All of those underlying numbers could certainly give the Giants pause in trying to project big league success.
But, of course, numbers don’t tell the whole story. Wisely, who does have a spot on the 40-man and who has received significant opportunities this year, actually has slightly worse contact and whiff rates this year — though his chase rate of 24% is much better than Fitzgerald’s. Some of it simply has to do with roster construction. When the Giants chose to acquire Wisely last winter, they certainly demonstrated a preference for him over Fitzgerald (who was, like Wisely, Rule 5 eligible). And though Wisely hasn’t turned his minor league proficiency into anything like major league success as of yet, the Giants still do like his tools, athleticism, and approach at the plate. A lot of what Wisely brings to the table tends to overlap with Fitzgerald’s skill set. They’re both dynamic up-the-middle fielders who have pretty seamlessly added CF to a MI profile this year. They’re both fast and have some power. But neither is a clear-cut candidate to come up and start succeeding at the big league level.
Throw Casey Schmitt into the equation (since the Giants do seem to feel like he is a capable middle infield defender) and you start to feel a little roster-construction glut. There are only so many imperfect MI depth pieces you want to have on the 40-man at one time, and certainly the Giants aren’t yet ready to turn the page on Wisely, who has two more years of options. From that point of view, the simplest answer to your question might be that the team prefers both Schmitt and Wisely to Fitzgerald and doesn’t believe that having all three on the roster at the same time is the best use of their limited roster resources. It will be fascinating to see if their calculation on that changes come November, as the club faces a very uncertain future at the shortstop position and might feel the need to start hedging a few more bets.
After back to back seasons of injuries for Marco Luciano, how would you handle him going into 2024? Is he still a shortstop, and if so, would you give him the inside track to be the opening day shortstop? What concerns do you have that injuries have/will hamper his development? Is his approach at the plate satisfactory to a front office that likes a specific, patient approach at the plate?
Ah, yes, the “uncertain future at the shortstop position.” How convenient that as I write that phrase, I should have a question on Luciano lurking at the top of my queue.
I do think that the Giants would love to see Luciano claim the shortstop position in spring training. Evaluators in the system saw some real growth from him at the position this year — and I have to say that I did as well — and I don’t sense any inclination at this point to move him off the six just yet. Nobody is looking at him like a Gold Glove candidate out there, but they do believe he can be capable enough as a shortstop to provide the club with a lot of value with his bat. The template here, and I’ve made this comp before, is Corey Seager, who came up to the Dodgers under Farhan Zaidi’s watch, and was from the beginning, widely presumed by the scouting community to be a future 3b or outfielder. Instead, he’s been one of the most impactful shortstops of his generation, despite never playing the position in a manner that would inspire a more passionate description than “capable.” If Luciano gives the Giants “capable” defense at shortstop, I think they’ll take it happily and hope the bat comes around to the level of their dreams.
After a year and a half in which Luciano’s development has been marred by recurrent injuries, I know a lot of fans worry that the physical demands of shortstop will put greater strain on his body than a nice gentle resting place in LF or somewhere. Personally, I don’t know that that’s the case — baseball takes incredible athleticism anywhere on the diamond, and the outfield has a ton of quick start/quick stop movements that can lead to muscle strains easily enough (A.J. Pollock ended his Giants’ career taking a carom off the outfield wall).
It certainly hasn’t helped his development that he’s missed so many reps over the last couple of years, and I do think that’s a legitimate concern — I know the club really does hope to see him get back on the field before this year ends, and I wouldn’t be shocked if we see him again in a Giants’ uni before 2023 is through. That would certainly help set him up for spring training when I do think he’ll have every opportunity to prove himself worthy of taking the shortstop job — certainly the free agent market isn’t offering up any obvious solutions to the problem. Luciano was actually one of the most patient hitters in the system this year, working extremely long at bats pretty regularity. There was a lot of swing and miss when he did offer at pitches, and I expect we’ll see that going forward as well, but there were also a lot of walks and a lot of hitter’s counts. He’s going to strike out a ton, especially at first, but he could also lead the team in “OOOOOOOHHHHS!” generated from the crowd.
How do you see the Giants selecting for the upcoming AFL? Is it a case of getting players who've missed time (such as Seth Corry, Michael Stryffeler) some extra reps or do they challenge players against a potentially higher level - Arteaga, McCray, Bericoto, Johnson for instance?
To be completely honest, I’ve actually been told a couple of the names we’ll be hearing (whenever the folks running the league get their act together and make the roster announcements), but I wasn’t given leave to put them out publicly and I’ll respect that — so I have to tread a little lightly with this question. I did ask specifically about a few pitchers who have missed time with injury, and the sense I got is that, for pitchers currently on the IL, the org feels it’s probably just best to shut those guys down for the winter and begin anew in the spring.
Now, whether that includes pitchers who have missed time with injury but are ending the season healthy (such as Corry, Stryffeler, or Trevor McDonald), that’s not something I have a good feel for. But I do think that we’ve seen enough this year to conclude that adding innings to arms is an area where the organization is currently treading very lightly. I’m not sure that the front office would see it as a positive at this point to be trying to add innings to pitchers who have fought through injuries. I suspect this front office is likely to be much more excited about sending bats they value to the AFL than arms.
One thing that I think a lot of organizations use the AFL for, somewhat surreptitiously, is to get a few last decision points on guys who are coin flips for Rule 5 protection. Taking players who a team is on the fence about, and seeing how they stack up against the best of their peers can help teams make those difficult decisions, adding the final data point to the picture (or perhaps setting them up for offseason trades of the Wisely variety). That’s almost certainly the reason why the Pirates sent Blake Sabol to the AFL in 2022, for instance, though in that case, while he didn’t show the Pirates enough, the Giants were able to get in a few more looks that might have helped inform their decision. Given my response above to the Fitzgerald question, if he ends up being part of the Giants’ AFL contingent, I suspect that would be the case.
Now, whether you’d really call the AFL a “higher level” or not is a different question. Teams are always very careful about sending their best pitchers, and the quality of pitching is almost always low — some years dreadfully so. Last year, for instance, the Giants didn’t send any pitchers who had been above A ball, and most of them had spent the lion’s portion of their seasons in Low-A San Jose.
That said, I do think that we could see some of those important position player prospects who are coming up against Rule 5 eligibility, as that’s the class of hitter who makes up a majority of the league. I can say unreservedly that there’s at least one name — and almost certainly more — that is going to excite Giants’ fans when the league roll-calls come out, which really should be any day now! I mean, really folks, the minor league season is mostly over!
The more that I think about it, the more curious I am about the Giants picking two high-school hitters atop their 2023 draft (as most analysts feel Bryce Eldridge profiles better as a hitter than pitcher). A few musings. First, the front office has generally been quite risk averse, but these selections seem to be quite high on the risk-reward spectrum. Second, as you've discussed, the Farhan Zaidi regime hasn't proven to be "good at" developing hitters right now, with a few modest exceptions. So, the brass seems to have swung for the fences by picking Eldridge and then going way over slot to sign Walker Martin — instead of drafting a tantalizing pitcher or experienced college hitter with at least one of the picks. It strikes me as very interesting that the brass chose to place huge bets on teenage offensive potential (twice!) and on the org's ability to develop it. Why do you think Farhan & Co. made these big bets?
For all of the talk of the club’s risk aversion, I think it’s worth noting that they’ve taken quite a few risky selections in the draft under Zaidi. Reggie Crawford was a huge roll of the dice, and going back to the very first selection made under Zaidi, Bishop was about as much of a gamble as a college hitter from an elite D1 institution can get. And while Kyle Harrison in the third round was more or less in line with consensus thinking, signing Kyle Harrison to first round money took a lot of other teams by surprise. I think we can sometimes overstate trend lines in cases such as these. I certainly don’t believe the Giants have a high risk tolerance, but they don’t run and hide from any and all risk.
I also don’t think the Giants went into their first round with any specific strategy regarding specific phyla of players. Had certain college players fallen to #18, the Giants would have been happy to go with an older, more experienced hitter, instead of reaching into the high school ranks. It really is about the way the board lines up.
It does frequently happen that teams in the back half of the 1st round end up with high school players because of the dynamics of Day One drafting. As sure as the sun rises in the east, college players rise up draft boards in the final hours. Their longer track records and more fully-developed bodies give teams a greater sense of security in the picks, and elite college bats almost always have a way of trending upwards on Day One.
But what doesn’t happen very often in that dynamic is college bats who are considered “second tier” hitters leap-frogging over the better high school players. After the inevitable run on college bats and college arms, there always comes a point in the middle of the first round when the “talent” pendulum begins to swing in the direction of the high school players, which is why outstanding high school players so often come from that late 1st round, early 2nd round area. I think that’s really the simplest and most likely explanation for why the Giants went with a high school bat at 18 — that’s where the talent was.
As for Martin, though they signed him to an overslot deal, he really was a value pick, because they got a player who was widely viewed as a first round talent in the second round. Almost certainly, they got him there because no one else was willing to match the money they offered him, but that’s still a value pick. That they were able to do both of those things and then have arguably the best college lefty in the draft fall to them at their third pick was almost too good to be true.
When hired last fall, Pete Putila talked about how it was critical for prospects to focus on developing the skills that would determine their success at the major league level — including prioritizing that over minor league production. From that lens, how would you assess the progress this season of the top 10 prospects in your latest rankings?
Let me underline this comment by noting that a lot of what Putila and other evaluators in the system are looking at in their evaluations goes beyond just game skills. I write this a lot, but I still think I don’t emphasize enough how seriously the Giants (and other organizations) take a player’s pregame preparation and their dedication to improving their strength and physicality.
When I talk with Richmond Manager Dennis Pelfrey about various players, he’ll rarely talk about their success or failure in games, instead focusing on how they prepare and where their routines are improving. As Pelf says, the work and the development really happen in a player’s prep routine — what happens in games is simply the fruit of that dedication.
As far as physicality goes, this is where our reliance on video really misleads us, because the camera simply gives no indication of the massive size and strength of big leaguers. Double A players are incredible big and strong, and their bodies truly pale in comparison to big leaguers. As a front office employee said to me recently, everybody in the major leagues is HUGE, or they’re completely jacked up — or both! And an important part of a prospect’s development is to get himself physically ready to compete in that arena. The days of soft bodies smoking a cig in the locker room are long gone.
One big reason why Harrison zoomed through the minors and quickly became the best pitching prospect in the system is the way he erupted into a physical beast when he was 19-20 years old. The camera doesn’t really show this, but his upper body, his shoulders, his torso are gigantic, and his manstrength is crazy. That’s the real comparison between Harrison and Bumgarner, they can both crush you like a boa constrictor with a simple handshake.
That tangent aside, let me do a super quick look at my midseason top 10 and see if I can summarily answer your question:
Harrison: significant improvement in volume of strikes across the year.
Luciano: dedicated to a new, more patient approach at plate. Footwork has improved on defense.
Matos: incredible growth in plate discipline and swing decisions, but the Giants really want to see him get stronger (refer to above paragraph on the monsters of MLB).
Winn: I’ll hand the microphone over to Mike Petriello of MLB for this one:
Carson Whisenhunt: The change is a killer, but there needs to be more development of the other pitches. I think ultimately, you’ll see the Giants have him dump the curve and try to develop a hard slider. The fastball was great early, but more lackluster in Richmond. Hard to say how much that was related to his elbow health.
Aeverson Arteaga: Offensively, he’s in a very similar place to where Matos was a year ago and needs to see a similar growth in his swing decisions. He hasn’t figured out his approach yet.
Reggie Crawford: The Giants wanted to get him through the year healthy. They were vaguely successful at that in that he’s not really unhealthy, but he also pitched fewer than 20 innings this year. Hard to glean much info from that.
Grant McCray: Generally, I think the Giants were happy with McCray’s work and performance. He’s not a terrible chaser, but there are real in-zone contact issues here, particularly in the upper half of the zone. On “heart of the zone” fastballs, McCray has whiffed 23% of the time this year. That’s a red flag.
Vaun Brown: Just a difficult year every which way you look at it. The team could never really get him in a good place physically. When on the field, his levels of swing and miss were concerning, to say the least (his “heart of the zone” fastballs numbers were about the same as McCray’s).
Wade Meckler: Blitzed through minors by almost never swinging at pitches outside the zone, and almost never missing pitches inside it. That’s a good combination. Once he saw major league-quality offspeed pitches, he finally found a nut that was difficult for him to crack, but I’d assume we’ll see improvement there with more reps.
Did you get any word on The Whiz when you were in Richmond? Assume he is potentially done for the year unless they make the championship?
I did ask about him recently, and was told generally that he’s doing well. I didn’t get any sense that he’s ready to resume activities and would guess he’s among the group of pitchers mentioned above who are ready to shut things down for the summer. Hopefully, we’ll see him and his gorgeous changeup again in spring.
For a little more positive (and less vague) note, Marco Luciano has resumed baseball activities and is currently taking live ABs in Scottsdale. I think there is hope that we’ll see him again this year at some level. (Maybe I should have put that paragraph up in the Luciano response. Oh well).
Love the mailbags! Thanks for doing them. Kind of a summary question (if that's the right way to say it): who might realistically be able to contribute in the majors next year that is not currently on the 40 man? Do you see any power hitters coming any time soon in the pipeline?
A summary question?!? That’s perfect for our final question of today’s bag. I would say that there are a few obvious candidates here — all of the guys who are hanging out in the Triple A level who aren’t 40-man members for starters. Fitzgerald, who I’ve discussed at length above, and have been beating a drum over for the last year, is certainly one such candidate. And, of course, Mason Black is getting pretty close to big league ready, as is Kai-Wei Teng and even Carson Seymour. If healthy, Whisenhunt would be very likely to appear in the majors next year.
I also think there are a few potential relief candidates who could begin showing up in the majors. That group is led by hard-throwing lefty Erik Miller, but Juan Sanchez, Tyler Myrick and Ben Madison could possibly take strides forward as well.
As for power hitters, Luciano is the obvious candidate to put a whumping on MLB pitches in 2024, but he’s on the 40-man. Of players who aren’t, I’d only describe Brown as a potential power hitter, and his 2023 was so difficult in such a myriad of ways that it’s over-reaching to suggest him as a big league hopeful within the next 12 months. There are certainly some players with very loud power in the A+/AA range (Jared Dupere, Sean Roby, etc), but generally the guys with the biggest power have struggled with the “hitting” side of the power hitting equation.
I guess the obvious answer for a dark horse candidate would be Victor Bericoto, who has taken some real strides this year. His BP sessions may not be Luciano level, but they can get pretty darned impressive! He’s gotten so much more loft into his swing over the last two years, and can crank up the ol’ EV meter as well as anybody in the system. Like Matos, the 21-year-old Bericoto could stand to pack on some muscle, and he has a good frame for doing so. Giants officials have also talked of his need to get quicker and more athletic, both in the field and on the bases. If he can add strength and athleticism, and continue the progress as a hitter that he’s shown in 2023, I can see an outside chance for him to make the leap, though I’d think maybe a 2-3 year timeframe a more likely scenario.
And with that, we close up the Mailbag, only to open it once more in the 2023 season!
Coming Up
Sacramento (Beck) vs Sugar Land (TBD), 6:45 pm*, MiLBTV
Richmond (Seymour) at Erie (TBD), 3:05 pm, MiLBTV
San Jose (Mercedes) at Modesto (Morales), 7:05 pm, MiLBTV
*All times Pacific
The Cal League playoffs begin tonight in Modesto, with Manuel Mercedes looking to set the tone for the short series. Mercedes has been the most reliable starter of the group left on the roster. This is a huge outing for the 20-year-old. In Erie, PA, Richmond heads into the final week with a magic number of 4. Carson Seymour gets the series opener, which could set him up to skip the final day start and be lined up for Game 1 of the playoffs if things break the right way this week. Lots to play for, starting tonight!
I’ll see you tomorrow morning to see how it all went.
Awesome mailbag! Thank you!!