Rule 5 Decision: Luis Matos
Here's the big one!
This is the ninth in a series focusing on the Giants’ upcoming Rule 5 protection choices. There’s a fairly large selection of players who present challenging decisions, so we’ll take a look at them one by one. In previous editions, we’ve looked at:
So, while my posts have been chugging out on schedule every couple of days the last week or so, I’ve actually been doing things like sitting around on my own little island in the Caribbean, sucking up rum from the inside of a pineapple. You may have noticed that I haven’t been around the comments section lately. Anyway, feeling quite refreshed! Hope I haven’t missed anything of importance around here lately. And since I’m feeling so chipper upon my return, how about we make today a Free For All post! Cheers!
Anyway, some of you may have wondered where along the way in this “Rule 5 Decision” series you’d be getting a post on Marco Luciano. The answer is that you won’t. There is no “Rule 5 Decision” post coming on Luciano because the case for adding him to the roster is “D’uh” and the case against adding him is nonexistent.
That’s not the case however, for Luciano’s running mate, Luis Matos, the knottiest of all the decisions the Giants will face next week when the deadline comes to protect players from the Rule 5 draft. I’ve been holding off on this post so far, in large part because I’ve had trouble bringing myself to a firm conclusion of what the verdict of this piece should be. But with just three more posts left before the actual decision day comes, it’s time to move forward and plant my proverbial flag in the ground on the Matos Decision.
Will the Giants protect Matos this year? Does Matos need to be protected? This is one of the real questions of the offseason (from the There R Giants’ perspective at least — I get that the Aaron Judge/Jacob DeGrom/Trea Turner/Carlos Correa sort of questions will actually loom much larger in the overall fate of the Giants’ offseason).
It’s the closest call of series. Let’s dig in…
The Case For Adding Matos to the Roster
Let’s start with the obvious: as a player who reached Top 100 status after his 2021 season (and was a popular choice for a player who would leap up rankings at the end of the 2022 season), Matos has the attention of the industry. Kyle Haines, speaking to me by telephone, said that 2022 was Matos’ first season playing as a “marked man,” a player whom other players, coaches, and fans are always aware of. And though that first experience turned out to be more of a learning experience for the 20-year-old than a smashing triumph, that kind of mark lingers in the industry. Decision makers keep their eye on him, scouts bring a little extra attention to their looks, trying to envision the player he might become one day. Matos has spent much of the last two years becoming the type of player that the industry notices with a special focus, and that’s not something that goes away overnight, even with a difficult few months.
That’s especially true of a player like Matos, who brings so many winning skills to the table. I’ve talked a lot about the Rule 5 profile and, unlike some of the other players we’ve profiled here so far, Matos definitely fits it. While his bat disappointed in 2022, scouts raved about his work in center field. Fast and athletic, he’s improved his reads, jumps, and routes, and looked faster and smoother moving around the outfield this year. Even though the bat is clearly not ready for big league duty, an organization that wanted to add prospect depth could easily imagine carrying Matos on the roster as an extra outfielder and pinch runner, getting true value out of his glove and speed, while giving him major league coaching on the offensive side to begin refining his approach at the plate.
I keep going back to something I wrote in the Hunter Bishop post:
While it might be possible for a team to hide him on the roster throughout the year, their reward for doing so would be a 26-year-old outfielder who still needed plenty of upper minors reps and further development. That doesn’t really feel like enough bang to make the buck spent worthwhile.
That felt like solid reasoning in Bishop’s case, but move the sliding scale on that age and how much does the equation change? Matos, who doesn’t turn 21 until January, is a full 3.5 years younger than Bishop. A team that nursed him through a year on the major league roster would have a still 21-year-old prospect to try to develop (with a year of major league experience on their hands). That feels like it tilts the balance in favor of grabbing the player.
From that perspective, an almost 1 to 1 comp for Matos is the Tigers’ selection two years ago of Akil Baddoo, out of the Twins organization. Baddoo, indeed, was an even wilder throw of the dart. Taken in the December 2020 Rule 5 draft, Baddoo had barely played over the previous two years. His 2019 season was ended by injury in May, and of course there was no 2020 season in the minors. At the time that the Tigers selected him, he had played just 29 games in High A, with a rather uninspiring .214/.290/.393 line. He had hit just .243, although with solid power and OBP, in Low A in 2018. None of that sounds particularly major-league hopeful, but Baddoo was a twitchy athlete with power and speed, could play up the middle, and provided a somewhat barren Detroit organization with some of the explosive athleticism it lacked. They went for it!
Would a 2023 version of Detroit (which could be, uh…..Detroit!) see some similar virtues in Matos? It’s certainly possible. He’s down in the AFL right now performing before the industry’s entire scouting apparatus, and while he has been showing that he can get himself out with an overly aggressive approach at the plate, he’s also displayed dynamic speed on both sides of the ball, ability to get his bat to nearly any pitch, and occasional jolts of power that make him such an intriguing prospect.
Just as a sidenote, Baddoo’s also something of a cautionary tale in terms of the long-term play of trying to carry a player in the majors who has not really reached that point in his development yet. While he became something of an overnight sensation when he went on a homer-hitting tear for the Tigers early in 2021, he’s mostly struggled badly at the plate in the majors. Since August 1 of 2021, he’s hit just .241/.306/.352, good for a wRC+ of just 83, and was sent to the minors for a lengthy period last year. Teams often don’t do players any favors when they grab them in the Rule 5.
Still, that’s the blueprint that the Giants need to worry about in Matos’ case. A team with no plans to compete in 2023 sees the opportunity to grab a Top 100 type prospect, figuring, “we can just have him do this for us for a year:”
Play some roster rope-a-dope, scatter a few IL stints around the schedule, make sure Matos has his 90 days on the active roster without ever being optioned off the major league team, and presto, you have yourself a pretty interesting kid going forward. That’s the risk the Giants weight if they don’t add him to the 40-man.
The Case Against Adding Matos to the Roster
As long as I’m throwing various comps around, maybe the one that fits best in this section is Seth Corry. Coming off of a triumphant 2019, Corry found himself in the back half of various outlets’ Top 100, and was starting to forge a reputation as one of the most dynamic left-handed pitching prospects in baseball. In 2021, he headed to Eugene, and ended up suffering through a difficult and disappointing season in which his ability to miss bats with multiple pitches was offset by Nuke LaLoosh-level control difficulties. Still, he looked better at the end of the season and finished things off with a stint in the AFL, in which he showcased both his strengths (striking out 17 batters in 11 innings) and weaknesses (walking 9 in that same time) before the collected scouting industry.
In her Rule 5 preview that year, The Athletic’s Melissa Lockard (friend of the pod!) had Corry as a lock to be protected, figuring that, even with his control woes, some team would be tempted by the obvious talent and figure out a way to utilize him in their bullpen.
The Giants did not protect him.
Again, it’s a near perfect 1 to 1 comparison. The Giants showed in that move the value they placed on 40-man spots and their organizational priority for preserving those spots for creating maximum flexibility for the big league roster. The preferred to be able to use spots to claim available talent that might be useful to the team this year than to protect potential internal talent that might be useful several years from now, and they calculated that the risk that another team would both draft and keep Corry (living through the inevitable three batters/three walks appearances) to be relatively low.
You can imagine a similar calculus taking place with Matos. While his ability play a strong defensive CF and his speed on the bases make him a potential fit for most rosters, players still have to bat, and Matos has shown throughout 2022 that he has plenty of work to do on his approach before he will be ready to face major league competition. The few games this fall in which we’ve had statcast data have shown pretty clearly that he swings early and often in counts — and often indiscriminately at offspeed pitches and breaking balls that pitchers are trying to get him to go after. It’s not too hard to imagine that the slide in his numbers since his explosive opening week is mostly the result of older, more experienced pitchers seeing that he’s willing to help them by expanding the zone. Major league pitchers do not take long to learn how to exploit that particular weakness. Another potential note of skepticism was sounded recently by The Athletic’s Keith Law, who voiced concern that Matos is “so undersized that he isn’t able to do much at the plate right now, drawing some walks while I saw him, but otherwise striking out or making weak contact.” Between the small frame and the poor approach, teams might see Matos as a 4th outfielder ceiling who won’t be ready to reach that ceiling for some time — not necessarily making him an appealing Rule 5 candidate.
The Giants could, therefore, calculate that the chance that another team could carry Matos through a year is relatively low and take the risk of exposing him, leaving them with another 40-man spot to focus on improving the major league roster. An asset they’ve shown that they value very highly.
The Verdict
Of course, one can’t simply assume that the priorities the Giants held in November of 2021 are the same ones they hold today. They also left Prelander Berroa unprotected in that same Rule 5 period, and later doubled down on that decision by moving him for a highly fringy big leaguer who might not have much future in San Francisco. It’s entirely possible that with the experience of the last 10 months behind them, they might choose differently if presented the same options today. We shouldn’t read too much into the past. Intelligent minds adapt and transform, after all.
Though I still find myself waffling, I think in the end, the org values Matos’ potential too highly to take the risk of exposing him.
Add Him to 40-Man?: YES
If I had any photoshop skills, I’d paste Brandon Belt’s face on there! Yes, welcome aboard, Luis! Head to Richmond with Marco and Vaun and Jairo, and start building your case for promotion. Find that balance between your natural aggression and just a hint of discrimination, and rediscover that MVP inside of you. Development is a long and winding road, and we’re all still bullish on where your road will lead!
Winter League Update
Not a ton of activity going on in the winter leagues at the moment, though Diego Rincones is once again torching the Venezuelan Winter league. Both Rincones and Ricardo Genovés are slated to become minor league free agents in the next few days if they aren’t added to the Giants’ 40-man roster.
Did you catch the AFL Fall Stars Game last night (or the preceding premier event, the Home Run Derby on Saturday)? The events — like this year’s version of the league — were not particularly Giants-centric. The Giants had no players in the Derby, and the only representatives that they sent to the All Star Game were relievers Tyler Myrick and 28-year-old Spencer Bivens. Myrick ended up vulturing the win, walking three and allowing one run in his inning of work (while also striking out one to help escape his mess). Bivens struck out two, walked one, and allowed no hits in a scoreless inning. Not quite as momentous as last year, when Hunter Bishop punctuated the Fall Stars Game with a monstrous home run!
This year, it’s “close but no cigar.”
Adrian Sugastey, playing just once a week, is showing his feel for contact once again, though he hasn’t exactly been blistering the ball. Still, a .391 batting average will get it done. Logan Wyatt certainly has had his top skill on display as well, the God of Walks! With 17 free passes in just 62 PA, he’s been on base more than half of the time. At some point, he’ll need to make some hard contact if he’s going to rise as a 1b prospect, however. Marco Luciano has been missing from the Estrellas lineup for most of the past few weeks, but he’s started to appear in lineups again lately.
It took a long while for Carson Whisenhunt to make his AFL debut, but he certainly got high marks once he finally appeared on the scene with his now-you-see-it-now-you-don’t changeup. He’s going to end up making the largest impression of any of the Giants’ contingent of prospects in the AFL.
Remember, there won’t be too many Free For All posts, so if you enjoyed it, by all means become a There R Giants subscriber!
BTW, you actually took a vacation in the Caribbean? Nice!
I waffled a bit (actually a lot!) on this one too and I came down on the other side. The times I saw Matos in person, I have no lasting memory of a really good at bat from him. Small sample size, bad timing, whatever. A near full-season faceplant, never mind being a top 3 prospect, I don't even have him in my top 10. Clearly that's an error on my part, but still. He gets a 'no' from me.