SF Giants Top 50 Prospects: 41-50
Let's get it started
Photo Credit: Mike Julia/Augusta GreenJackets
What say we get these rankings started proper-like and dispense with the introductory materials? I’m going to spend the next two weeks doing my best Casey Kasem —counting down from 50 to 1 — despite a paucity of information and a total uncertainty hanging over every element of developmental baseball for next year. Sounds fun, huh?
Before we start, let me try to explain my methodology here (insofar as “making stuff up as I go along” constitutes a methodology). For each player I’ll include a rough Future Value grade based on the scouting 20-80 scale. I’m doing this because it’s becoming a standard convention of prospecting which I think is really valuable and forces us to think through just why we’re ranking players where we are — what realistically might be this player’s outcome. But I should make an obvious caveat — though the FV grades suggest an acceptable outcome based on the present tools and skills, it’s important to realize that players can, through their development efforts, raise (or lower) those outcomes the closer they get to the majors. That’s especially true for many of these kids who are far off.
We see this every day — pitchers start throwing harder, players get their bodies into better physical conditioning that allows their skills to play up, they get better at making decisions at the plate. Future Value is a sketch — a sketch in very light pencil — but the future is always undetermined and a man can change his stars. The closer we get to the future, the more that sketch starts filling in with ink and oil paint. Still, I am a believer that tools play at the top level and you’ll frequently see me relying on specific tools to push players up or down my rankings.
Secondly, I’ll also add a Risk Factor — I’m stealing this from Baseball America’s Prospect Handbook because I think it’s a great idea — which works in conjunction with the FV for my placement on the list. So that a player with a 40 FV but an Extreme Risk Factor (which can be caused by injury or, say, extreme contact issues, or simply being many many levels away) might be behind a 35+ player with a lower risk factor. Guys who are far away are also given conservative FV grades in addition to high risk factors. As they get closer their FV could improve (or the opposite).
And lastly, I’ll make a reasonable guess at where they might be assigned to start the 2021 season and suggest some specific development needed for their advancements.
Finally, a quick word on the 20-80 baseball scouting scale. Originally adapted by Branch Rickey from a scientific model, this scale assigns 50 as a major league average performance and then goes up and down 10 points for every order of magnitude difference. People often ask why the scale doesn’t go from 0-100 and the answer generally is that players who would grade lower than 20 don’t get into pro ball and if there are any 100 scale players (perhaps Ted Williams was a 100 hitter?) there aren’t enough of them to worry about adapting the scale to fit around them. Essentially <20 and >80 are statistically insignificant. The 20-80 scale is the Bell Curve and it doesn’t stray out to the tails. Of course, scouts assign 20-80 grades to each of the specific player tools, but they also give an overall grade on a player’s future and that’s the one we’re thinking about here as Future Value. From a practical standpoint, here’s what different grades look like in my estimation:
80: Franchise Player, #1 starter (Mike Trout, Clayton Kershaw)
70: Perennial All Star, #2 starter (Nolan Arenado, Stephen Strasburg)
60: Occasional All-Star, #3 starter, Elite Reliever (Jose Abreu, Mariano Rivera)
55: First Div. Regular, #3/4 starter, Closer (Brandon Crawford, J. Samardzija, Z. Britton)
50: Average Regular, #4 Starter, Set Up RP (Cesar Hernandez, Tanner Roark, A. Ottovino)
45: 2nd Division Reg or Platoon player, #5 starter, low leverage reliever
40: MLB Bench Player/Reserve
35: Up and Down/Depth Player
30: Triple-A Player
20: Organizational player
And with that….
#50. Adrian Sugastey, C
DOB: 10/23/02
2019 Highest Level: N/A
Potential 2021 Assignment: Rookie (Domestic)
Acquired: International FA (2019)
Future-Value Grade: 35 (Risk: Extreme)
Generally speaking, for players new to the organization, I’ve always thought that, lacking any new information, the best way to rank them is to line them up by their signing bonuses. The logic, of course, being that no other piece of information represents as clear and direct a value statement as the money the organization spent to secure their services (of course, organizations can be VERY wrong <cough:RafRod:cough>).
But here at the back end of my list, I’m going to run roughshod over this general principle. Without going over again my reasons for holding the supremely talented Arteaga and Anthony Rodriguez off to the side until we see them again, I’ve chosen to place Panamanian catcher Adrian Sugastey above both of them, despite the fact that Sugastey received just the Giant’s fourth highest bonus for a hitter in the 2019 J2 class ($525,000). And, in part, that’s because we do have a little new information for Sugastey.
The just-turned-18-year-old has long been a star in his home country of Panama. Sugastey was part of Panamanian national travel teams as young as 14 — participating in international tournaments in Colombia, Mexico, Nicaraugua, even in Michigan. He was also a starter for acclaimed Panama Central in the Panama Junior Leauge, where he struck out just twice in 84 PA when he was 15. After signing with the Giants, rather than participate in the Tricky League in the Dominican Republic, he went to Japan as the youngest member of Panama’s 18U national team.
Indeed, if you’d like to watch Sugastey competing against his now-organization-mate Kyle Harrison, enjoy the Panama-USA game below. My technology is seemingly preventing me from cueing this up to the right spot in the video, but Sugastey’s at bats against Harrison come at 41:50 and 1:15:50).
The older Harrison had his way with the 16 year old here, but taking his lumps against older, more experienced competition is a valuable part of the learning curve. When Sugastey returned to the Giants Dominican Instructional League that Fall, he was one of the stars of the camp, impressing coaches with his fluid contact-oriented stroke and his extraordinary baseball IQ and leadership traits.
That impression earned Sugastey an invite to minor league spring training in Arizona in 2020, and again to the Instructional League camp that just ended in Scottsdale this weekend. There he was the youngest catcher in camp and the only one without any professional experience on his resumé. I’ve said before that invites to Instructional Camp (and other assignments in which the Giants have to show a preference for their players) does count heavily in my thinking.
Like all really young players, Sugastey could certainly grow beyond the minor league depth grade I’ve assigned him here. To do that, the bat will need to continue to develop and, in particular, he’ll need to add strength and power as he matures. He is a “catch and throw” specialist — a type of catcher that might not need to exist anymore as the stolen base goes the way of the dinosaur and robo-umps make their way into the game. His arm could end up being a 70 and he shows the ability to work well with pitchers. Add some power to that and you have a profile major league catcher. But solid defense and some singles — well, if you notice there just aren’t that many Kirt Manwarings hanging around the game much anymore.
#49. Brett Auerbach, C/3b/2b/OF
DOB: 8/27/98
2019 Highest Level: N/A
Pot. 2021 Level: Low A
Acquired: Undrafted Free Agent (2020)
Future-Value Grade: 35 (Risk: Very High)
And here I’ve totally gone rogue — selecting as my first member of the 2020 “draft” class, a player who the Giants didn’t even draft, University of Alabama’s do-it-all Brett Auerbach. Along with Pepperdine pitcher Wil Jensen, Auerbach was the class of the Giants’ undrafted free agents and his inclusion at the back-end of my list is in large part due to the fact that he’s such an IDEAL Farhan Zaidi development project. (I say “Farhan Zaidi” but it should be understood that I’m talking about organizational philosophy — the Farhan Zaidi Administration, as it were).
Auerbach’s a diminutive powderkeg. Only 5’9” and 190 lbs, he can play nearly everywhere on the field. Catcher has been a primary location for him, but he also plays most of the infield position and has even shown a passable knack for CF. He also has a long track record of watching the strike zone carefully and piling up walks — a trait that has followed him from Saddleback CC to Alabama and even the Cape Cod League where he walked nearly 10% of the time. His Senior season at Alabama was shaping up to be his best, as he got off to a torrid start, hitting .388/.506/.642 with twice as many walks (17) as Ks (8).
Plays all over the field, controls the strike zone, makes contact? Yep this is a player that The Process™ of Giants’ development is being built to succeed with. And his inclusion on my list is in large part of vote of confidence that the Giants will know how to get the best out of him.
That could involve a good deal of tinkering with the swing. Auerbach has never hit for much power at any level thanks to a swing that has very little loft. However, the flat, contact-geared swing produces excellent exit velocities which, as we know, is the material out of which extra bases are built.
Another issue Auerbach will face as a professional is his size — especially if he’s going to focus on catching, which can really wear down even the strongest pros. Facing bigger and stronger competition on a daily basis, Auerbach’s physical condition will be crucial to his ability to come on out on the winning side. If you want to be like Jose Altuve in a land of giants, you’d better have Jose Altuve’s core strength!
I’m excited to see what the Giants can do with Auerbach; if they can make him a major leaguer with all the blades of his Swiss Army Knife intact, he can make an extremely valuable use of a roster position. Though Auerbach was a Senior Sign, he isn’t particularly old for a college player, having just turned 22 in August.
#48. Cole Waites, RHP
DOB: 6/10/98
2019 Highest Level: Rookie
Pot. 2021 Level: Low A
Acquired: Drafted, 18th Rd (2019)
Future-Value Grade: 35 (Risk: Very High)
Ok, apparently I’m just eschewing that whole “line ‘em up by the signing bonus” logic with reckless abandon here in the back ten. Not only did I run Sugastey up above Arteaga, but here I’m ranking 2019 18th rounder Cole Waites above a couple of higher drafted and higher bonussed contemporaries — most notably 8th round pick Caleb Kilian — despite the fact that Waites pitched very little in his pro debut and not all that well (6.23 ERA in 17 innings in the AZL).
And my response is to fess up to my long-held addiction: I’m a velocity hound. Kilian unquestionably came to the Giants with greater polish and resumé than Waites, who played his college years with tiny University of West Alabama. But I believe more in Waites fastball. While virtually everything else about Waites’ game is raw — he walks far too many batters and gives up hard contact when he misses in the strike zone — his bat missing ability is intact. He struck out 282 batters in 197 IP in college, and wiped out 28 more in his AZL debut. The fastball reaches 97 at this point and I think there might be more in the tank as well.
In all, Waites reminds me an awful lot of recent Giants draft pick Stephen Woods, Jr., who came to pro ball from a tiny college with a long history of having a big fastball and little idea what to do with it. And Woods has proven to be a vaguely desirable asset in his pro ball career.
Waites started in college, but he’s almost certainly a reliever all the way as a pro, but he has the kind of life and velo that can make him a usable big league arm and that always catches my eye.
#47. Jake Wong, RHP
DOB: 9/03/96
2019 Highest Level: A+
Pot. 2021 Level: A+
Acquired: Drafted, 3rd Rd (2018)
Future-Value Grade: 35 (Risk: Very High)
And here we’ve probably reached another somewhat surprising ranking — this time surprisingly low. Don’t worry, I’m going to get more orthodox as this thing chugs along! I’m just feeling a little squirrelly out here beyond the back nine where noone can see us.
And let me freely admit to a couple of the biases that can distort rankings. First, he’s been used as a starter rather than a reliever in the pros, which can have a big effect on velocity. Like Waites, Wong was seen as high as 97 while working at Grand Canyon University. But on a five-day rotation workload in the pros, he topped out around 92 consistently in 2019.
And, of course, the big bias — we’ve seen Wong fail, which inevitably causes some over-reaction. After a sensational debut in Augusta in 2019 (1.99 ERA in 40.2 IP, albeit with a fairly low 7.5 K9), Wong moved up to the Cal League and got cuffed around a bit (4.98 ERA in 72 IP with a FIP also above 4.00).
The low 90s fastball didn’t have quite enough zip to befuddle Cal League hitters (with the K rate again sitting around 8 per 9) and Wong didn’t have a great assortment of other pitches to resort to get them out. The Giants reportedly weren’t happy with his offspeed repertoire, in particular asking him to ditch his curveball which high-speed photography revealed came out of his hand like a slider. His 2020 development goal was to work on creating a real slider that could become his go to pitch.
Unfortunately, we don’t have a great sense of how well that mission was accomplished, because in the middle of Instructional League, this bomb fell:
At this point, we don’t know what the surgery was for — it could be small! But it’s the big reason for my dropping Jake in the rankings. Once we have an idea of what he’s recovering from AND see him back on a mound with a new and improved repertoire, we’ll have a better sense of whether he needs to move back up. For now: caution is the watchword.
Just as an aside, Wong is yet another Giants’ prospect whose family athleticism isn’t limited to the boys’ side. His sister Jessica is an all-WAC soccer player who also attended Grand Canyon University with Jake — and from what I can tell it would appear that Jessica has always been the smart one in the family:
Jake, Jessica, and Josh Wong: Wong family archives
#46. R.J. Dabovich, RHP
DOB: 1/11/99
2019 Highest Level: N/A
Pot. 2021 Level: Low A
Acquired: Drafted, 4th Rd (2020)
Future-Value Grade: 35+ (Risk: Extreme)
Dabovich tended to be something of an after-thought for observers of the Giants’ 2020 draft — once again he fit in “the Professor and Maryann” portion of the Gilligan’s Island theme song — but he’s not lacking in exciting attributes. Hunter Bishop’s old college teammate has bounced back and forth from rotation to closer and back, and he’s even had a somewhat unusual change of arm slots mid-college career. But one thing he’s done quite consistently is throw HARD.
His fastball has been reaching the 98-100 range this summer and as we can see below it’s coming with a fairly elite spin rate as well.
Trevor Bauer’s four-seam spin, as an example, improved to 2776 last year, the best of his career by far (generally spin rate doesn’t increase much on fastballs but Bauer engaged in great deal of experimentation of the use of various tacky substances to get his bump).
And Dabovich isn’t a one-trick pony. He features both a slider and a curve (which both ALSO have excellent spin rates) as well as a split-finger change. While the Giants’ Pitch Design team is likely working the high speed photography and biomechanics programs to perfect the repertoire and pitch usage, the fundamentals of velocity and spin are in place for a very dynamic starting pitcher. And if the ultimate path is towards the bullpen or more short-hard stints, there’s an excellent chance that he can be a dynamic late-inning guy.
Not unusual for a hard thrower, Dabovich can have a strained and diffident relationship with the strike zone. But he has the body, arm action, and stuff to develop into a highly interesting arm if he cleans things up. Developmental assignments for 2021 include improving the command, and identifying which pitches he’ll build his game around going forward.
#45. Dilan Rosario, SS/MIF
DOB: 6/16/01
2019 Highest Level: Rookie
Pot. 2021 Level: Rookie
Acquired: Drafted, 6th Rd (2019)
Future-Value Grade: 35+ (Risk: Extreme)
As we recall from the “Just Missed” post, P.J. Hilson didn’t quite make my Top 50 because his performance over two years of Complex League was so dreadful that there just isn’t much historical precedent to suggest he’ll ever be able to make his splendid tools play.
So now we come to Dilan Rosario who posted a .214/.254/.364 slash line in his pro debut complete with a “Woah Nelly!” 36% K rate. So what gives here, exactly, Mr. Inconsistent?
Well, Rosario does bring a host of mitigating factors. The biggest of those is that his track record of Complex level futility is just one season long, not two. That matters! Rosario was also an exceptionally young draftee — he was drafted two weeks before his 18th birthday. And coming from the Leadership Christian Academy of Puerto Rico, he also had less experience against high level pitching competition than his high school draft class contemporaries. In other words, he was exactly the type of kid who was likely to struggle with the jump to pro ball.
But also like Hilson, Rosario brings some seriously tantalizing tools to his game. First of all, he brings a “Survival Tool” — that is, a tool that can keep getting him opportunities and promotions while he develops other aspects of his game — and that’s his true Shortstop defensive abilities. After the 2019 draft, I asked MLB’s Jim Callis what one player in the Giants’ Day 2 haul from the draft (in other words, no Hunter Bishop) brought the best single tool and Jim’s response was: Dilan Rosario’s defense. If you’re going to have one reliable tool to fall back on, having it be a smooth SS glove is a good way to go.
But beyond that, Rosario also showed a surprising amount of hand-strength and pop in his pro debut. Though the pitchers in the AZL were generally teaching him “what for” when he managed to make contact he put some juice into the ball. Former Prospects Live and current Minnesota Twins scout Jason Pennini noted Rosario showed plus raw power in BP in Arizona, noting “the ball jumps off his bat with little effort.”
The obvious problem is — like Hilson — getting the bat to the ball in the first place. And there’s no doubt whatsoever that Rosario’s developmental To Do list is: make more contact, with probably a side course of “Recognize Spin.” But the overall package is exceptionally desirable. Rosario is definitely the kind of prospect who can push that FV up, up, and away if he can learn to refine his game. His body and athleticism stand out on the field just playing catch — you notice him on the field — and he has a chance to boost himself up to, say, a 50 value player if all the elements of his game were to come together. He also has the chance to flame out before seeing High A if he can’t improve that 36% K rate.
#44. Manuel Mercedes, RHP
DOB: 9/21/02
2019 Highest Level: N/A
Pot. 2021 Level: Rookie
Acquired: International Free Agent (2019)
Future-Value Grade: 40 (Risk: XX Extreme)
Did I mention I’m a Velocity Hound? Yeah, it’s true. I’ve been seeing a therapist about it for many years but so far I haven’t made much of a break through. Why in the world do I have a skinny 17 year old whose been seen by very few people on a baseball field above much more accomplished pitchers? Velo! Pure and simple.
Mercedes was hitting the mid-90s before ever signing a pro contract as a 16 year old. The Giants admired the potential in his arm so much they made him the second highest signing among the pitchers in their 2019 J2 class ($400,000).
Mercedes’ best attribute is armspeed that Ben Badler has described as electric. Badler has repeated several times — including during his There R Giants podcast appearance — that he believes Mercedes is a 100+ mph arm in the making once he fills out. Mercedes pairs that with a slider that has hard tilt. Essentially the prototypical late inning reliever package. There’s a long, long way from here to there for sure, but this is very much a Reyes Moronta starter kit with even more velo. And I’m all in. The Giants are too, apparently, as Mercedes was by far the youngest RHP pitcher invited to Instructional League. Having just turned 18 in September, he was the second youngest player in the camp behind just LHP Esmerlin Vinicio (who won’t turn 18 until January).
Developmental Goals….uh, everything! Get stronger, get bigger, learn to pitch, get a Baseball-Reference page. The whole deal! We’re a long way from Mercedes getting the final out of the 2026 World Series, but that’s the image in my mind when I’m ranking him here.
#43. Kervin Castro, RHP
DOB: 2/07/99
2019 Highest Level: A-
Pot. 2021 Level: Low A
Acquired: International Free Agent (2015)
Future-Value Grade: 35+ (Risk: Very High)
Castro has been in the Giants’ system so long that he's starting to near minor league free agency and will actually be eligible for the Rule 5 draft this December. He’s not terribly well known, however, because his career got off to a particularly slow start. Originally signed as a catcher, Castro was converted to pitching before he made it to his first DSL season. And, unfortunately, he had Tommy John surgery before making it to his second DSL season. In his third year in pro ball, he came back to throw exactly one inning in 2018.
After those painfully slow beginnings, however, things picked up considerably. In his fourth year in pro ball, he was the Northwest League’s Starting Pitcher for the NWL-Pioneer League All Star game. He was second in the league in Games Started and Innings Pitched and sixth in strikeouts (61) while maintaining a 2.66 ERA.
Though Jason Pennini had Castro hitting 98 and sitting 94-96 while pitching in extended spring training, most of the stadium guns in the Northwest League had him working lower than that, sitting more comfortably in the low 90s. Whether he was getting fatigued by the late summer, or the Giants had him intentionally working at a little less than full speed, he was highly effective throwing at a lower speed and would seem to have another gear left to work with.
Castro has a Catcher’s body, squat and compact, and is on the short-side for RHP. But he makes that work to his advantage, throwing his four-seamer up in the zone with a very flat plane that tends to create the illusion of rise or hop. He pairs that with a potentially above average changeup that creates excellent deception due to arm speed, and a solid 12-6 curveball (though that could use more bite).
If you listened to my podcast with Kyle Goins, you’ll know that Castro, despite being a fairly inexperienced pitcher, really excelled at pounding the strike zone last year. His 4.5% walk rate was the league’s best by a starter and he ended up with an outstanding 61 K to 13 BB ratio.
Castro will need to stay on top of his physical conditioning, as his stocky body seems prone to some softness. So it was notable that Kyle Haines went out of his way to praise Castro for coming to Instructional League in “really good shape.” It will also help if he brings more of that XST velocity with him into games because his boring, hopping fastball can be a real weapon at higher speeds. He could be poised to take one of the organization’s biggest jumps in 2021 among their starting pitching inventory.
#42. Matt Frisbee, RHP
DOB: 11/18/96
2019 Highest Level: A+
Pot. 2021 Level: AA
Acquired: Drafted, 15th Rd (2018)
Future-Value Grade: 35+ (Risk: High)
Here’s a shout-out for the over-achiever! On a 2019 San Jose pitching staff that included higher profile prospects like Sean Hjelle, Jake Wong, and Tristan Beck, who came out of the season with the coveted “Pitcher of the Year” trophy? This big guy, that’s who:
The unheralded 15th round draft pick in 2018 out of UNC Greensboro has blossomed as a professional, posting a sensational 10.71 K9. In San Jose, Frisbee paired that 10+ K9 with a downright stingy 1.70 BB9. That all added up to a truly elite 23% K-BB. That there is a pretty big portion of how you succeed as a modern day pitcher.
And while, yes, the name of the development game isn’t “How To Succeed at Low Levels of the Minors” it’s worth taking note of the guys who do because this is exactly the path that former unknowns like Conner Menez, Caleb Baragar, or Joe Biagini have taken to the majors.
Three times last year Frisbee posted games with >10 strikeouts and 2 or fewer walks. He also got better as the year went along. His best stretch came at in late July when he threw 25 consecutive scoreless innings while striking out 26 batters.
Nothing in Frisbee’s repertoire is plus, but he brings a decent assortment of 50 grade pitches and strong command and attacks hitters with relish. Throw hard, miss bats, pound the strike zone, avoid HRs…it’ll take you places. Maybe even to Oracle Park
#41. Diego Rincones, OF
DOB: 6/14/99
2019 Highest Level: A+
Pot. 2021 Level: A+
Acquired: International Free Agent (2015)
Future-Value Grade: 35+ (Risk: Moderate)
It’s perhaps not surprising that this 40s group has wavered frantically between “big tools/low success” and “big success/low tools.” You want those sorts of lottery tickets filling out the back of the rankings in a healthy organization, not pushing their way to the top. We’re ending on an absolute favorite of mine. Another player who, like Frisbee, has done nothing but succeed as a professional, but whose profile is a little hard to see making it to the top.
Diego Rincones can put a bat on a baseball. Of that there is no doubt. The career .289 hitter comes with a career strikeout rate of just 11.5% — virtually Joe Panik-esque! And I’m perhaps doing him a discredit to say he’s a career .289 hitter. He started his first DLS campaign before his 17th birthday and perhaps the jump to the daily pro game was too much for him as he scuffled to a .244 season. He’s been a consistent .300 hitter since then, until a 20 game stint at the end of 2019 in San Jose. And while there’s something of a Miguel Gomez-style hitter about Rincones game, he’s not entirely allergic to taking a walk. Though he posted a comically low 3% walk rate in Salem-Keizer in 2018, he hasn’t always been that low and boosted the number up to twice it’s size in Augusta (6%!).
The things that knock Rincones down the rankings are fundamentally profiling issues. He’s a corner OF who doesn’t hit for power. He’s also got something of a soft body that he’ll need to stay on top of. He’s surprisingly athletic however — much more so than you’d take him for — and shows off perhaps the best throwing arm in the system. Still, his best case scenario is probably an average defensive LF and that puts bigger demands on his power game than he’s shown as a pro as of yet.
Could Rincones be a “swing change” or “launch angle” project? He surely could be! And that makes him yet another of those “canary in the coalmine” types that may give us an indication that the Giants’ developmental philosophies are translating into results (and yes, I realize that the canary dies — that’s not how I’m using the metaphor, OK!!?!?!). He makes a ton of hard contact and has one of the best bat-to-ball skills in the org. Can the Giants take that skillset and add on improved swing decisions leading to more power? We shall see. He’ll be a heck of a guy to root for if they can. For now, it’s hard to see enough power in the package to profile above something like a “slower Joey Rickard” sort of outcome.
We’ll be back on Wednesday with prospects #31-40. Until then, feel free to tell me who I screwed up on in the comments!
Q about Frisbee: he was PotY at SJ in 2019 (high A, correct?), but you have 2019 Highest Level: A- and Potential 2021 Level: Low A. What am I missing? BTW, this is absolutely awesome, detailed reporting/analysis. Thanks.