Week 15 in Review: There R Giants Midseason Top 30 Re-Rankings
August 9-16, 2021 SF Giants Minor Lines
Photo Credit: Shelly Valenzuela | San Jose Giants
It’s Week in Review time and this week I’m also getting my long-promised Top 30 re-ranking of the Giants system out to you as well! If you like this week’s free for all, you may want to subscribe for daily prospect updates from There R Giants!
The last time I put my hand to ranking the system, we were coming off a missing season and didn’t have much information yet from the fall Instructs camp. Things have changed since then! So it’s well past time that I give my list at least a cursory shakeup. With two-thirds of an honest to goodness minor league season behind us, the trade deadline behind us, and my tour of the provinces behind me, I have much more information to go on at this point.
So, herewith, my sort of mid-season re-ranking of the Giants system. Before I get to my official There R Giants, a few notes about my thinking and process here. First off, I’m not going to go into great depth on each player. Once we get into the off-season I’m going to do a full, in-depth look at each and every one of my top 50 prospects (how’s that for a winter project?!?). So all we’re doing today is ranking, giving a sense of tier values, and a Stock Up/Stock Down indicator, with a short bullet point on each player.
There are two groups of players that you might to expect to see in greater representation: the new draft class and relief pitchers. My long-time inclination is to be bearish on both, and this year there is (I believe) a pretty significant overlap. Particularly given the facility the Giants have shown in acquiring bullpen pieces at as close to zero cost as possible (Dominic Leone, Jay Jackson, Zack Littell, etc), the value of a low-leverage relief pitching prospect strikes me as low compared to other positions, unless that reliever truly projects to be a difference-maker at the very end of a bullpen. There are some strong arms in the system (Camilo Doval, Kervin Castro, Chris Wright), but most of them come with red flags or flaws (control issues are frequent), and I honestly don’t see much in the way of potential future closers. My proclivity for putting my thumb on the scale on relief pitchers, even caused me, at the last moment, to drop Sammy Long from my list. If he’s a starter that’s a bad move — but so far in the majors this year, the fastball (which according to Baseball Savant is below average in velocity and bottom tier in spin rate) has me a little skeptical there’s a starter outcome.
I’m also extremely conservative about pitchers who are currently out of action or rehabbing injuries. Pitcher attrition rates make me want to see guys get healthy and productive before boosting them back up the rankings — so pitchers like Jake Wong and even Blake Rivera (who I just saw in Arizona) don’t make my current list, even though I think they could be on future iterations.
I tend to be similarly conservative about incoming draft classes, and especially drafted pitchers. Again, I want to see pitchers on the mound and producing — I guess I’m something of a pitching prospect skeptic. It’s just so easy for things to go wrong with pitchers and so hard for them to get right again. My bearishness on pitchers even caused Giants 4th round pick Eric Silva to fall outside my list as the final cut, as much as I wanted him on here!
Another player who didn’t make my list at all, perhaps surprisingly, is LHP Seth Corry, who was my highest ranked pitcher last fall. It’s been a true fall from grace for Corry, whose ability to throw strikes has always been his core issue. The Giants still love Corry’s stuff and Kyle Haines told The Athletic’s Melissa Lockard that they’ve identified some mechanical fixes that they hope can get him pointed in the right direction. Again, my inclination is to believe that hitters can fix things while I tend to want to see pitchers prove that they have. I freely admit that that approach may not be for everyone.
It seems like I’m just finding a half dozen different ways to say that I’m typically a bit bearish on pitching prospects. Don’t throw strikes? I’m out! Hard time staying on the field? I’m Out! Might end up in the 6th or 7th inning? I’m not that much In! Others will see things differently, but this is my list. Hey, I was high man on Logan Webb for years and that turned out ok!
Speaking of which, I made it a point of getting players onto this list who I have been boosterish about this year — guys who don’t tend to get a ton of prospect love but who I think can be big leaguers, even if just in a fringy, up and down capacity. That caused me drop a few youngsters who I do believe have higher ceilings off the back end of my list (Anthony Rodriguez, Diego Velasquez, Grant McCray). I regret those omissions, but not quite as much as I regret not finding a place for Simon Whiteman or David Villar on here — like them both! Ultimately, I couldn’t place the teenagers with lots to prove above some guys performing at higher levels who I do think have a chance to wear a big league uniform someday, even with limited ceilings. This is something of a change in tactics for me — traditionally I’ve valued ceiling and upside more than just the chance to make the big leagues. But for whatever reason, this is the way I’m tilting this year.
I’ll acknowledge that’s a slightly inconsistent stance given that I’ve chosen not to include guys who have already made it to up and down status, like Jaylin Davis, Joe McCarthy, and Jason Vosler. Ultimately, I wanted the use the back-end of the list to highlight players who are “my guys.” Because if I can’t use my own dang platform to bump up Ismael Munguia, what’s the point in any of this? This is a list of “my guys.” Prepare to read more about Velasquez, Rodriguez, McCray and many, may relief pitchers this winter, but right now, I’m going in a different direction.
With all of that said, here’s my mid-2021 re-ranking. Prepare to see changes in just a few months, as is my mercurial wont.
60 FV Tier (Potential All Stars)
Marco Luciano, SS ↑
The teenaged prodigy continues to show one of the game’s highest potential offensive profiles. He’s had some throwing yips this year and could end up in COF position down the road (or even multi-positional, as the Giants like), but the bat is legit. Don’t be over-concerned with the adjustment times he takes when moving up — he’ll impact big league lineups offensively.Luis Matos, CF ↑
The house money says to knock Matos down half a tick to the 55 FV level — solid big league starter, but never quite a star. I just can’t do it. I believe there are All Star games in Matos’ future. I’m convicted on this guy.
50 FV Tier (Potential Average/Mid-Rotation Starters)
Joey Bart, C ↔
Bart has had some issues getting consistent play in at Sacramento this year, bothered by a couple of stints on the IL with minor injuries and his overall batting line there is swelled by .418 batting average on balls in play that isn’t likely to be repeated at the big league level. BB/K continues to be a red flag and I’ve heard some question how well the swing will work at big league level, but Bart should clear the offensive bar for MLB C and his defense is strong.Heliot Ramos, CF ↔
After his huge spring in big league camp, I think it’s justified to be somewhat underwhelmed by a .237 average in Double-A — as well as .268 career average, overall (major league outfielders, even bench players, tend to have hit better than that in their minor league career). But Ramos has the tools necesary to be a big league starter and scouts still love him. He’s a strong defender (even in center) with an excellent arm and runs the bases well, so he provides all around value. Significantly, he’s rarely ever taken an at bat against a pitcher who was younger than him. It should be just a matter of time before things click offensively.
Before I go on: a word regarding Ramos’ and Matos’ seasons, if I may (and, by extension, everybody else’s). Our brains have all kinds of rascally tricks that they use to trip us up. One of its most effective stunts is to fool us into believing that the way things are now is the way they’ll always be. Because we’ve never seen Matos fail, we believe he never will. Because we’re watching Ramos’ struggles, it’s easy to believe he’ll never solve them. Just know that this isn’t true. It’s an illusion, designed to make us all say stupid things in public. Essentially, our brains are the frog from “One Froggy Evening,” and they want us to humiliate ourselves with bad prospect takes. Always keep this warning in mind. It’ll help curb our wilder enthusiasms.
Jairo Pomares, COF ↑
Pomares battles Matos for the best pure hit tool in the organization in my estimation, and may even have the advantage, swinging from the left side. He’s added huge power to his portfolio in his age 20 season. Like Matos, it’s an aggressive approach that will need to be tempered as he rises. A career .342 hitter, if he ends up being better than Ramos, I wouldn’t be shocked. But, then again, Ramos is less than a year older and in Triple-A.Kyle Harrison, LHP ↑
Harrison spoke with me about his struggle to re-find his arm slot. That’s an issue to watch, but he’s outperformed every member of his high school draft class in his debut. He’s been the best 19-year-old pitcher in pro ball in 2021 by a lot!Will Bednar, RHP
Bednar dominated the College World Series, performing at his best on the biggest stage. By the time he hoisted the trophy, a few scouting directors had him higher on their boards than Vanderbilt’s more highly touted Kumar Rocker.
45 FV Tier (Potential Platoon Players/Back End Starters)
Casey Schmitt, 3b ↑
I’ll admit this is high for a college player hitting .247 in High-A, but the glove is a carrying tool in my eyes. He hasn’t had any contact issues this year and hits a ton of fly balls. Those are both good indicators of future offensive success. Glove will go as far as bat can take it.Luis Toribio, 3b/1b ↔
Toribio struggled with breaking balls through the first couple of months, but he’s produced quality at bats and tons of hard contact this year. I still believe in the bat’s outcome, though sliding him over to 1b so early in his career is disappointing. His ability to leverage at bats and make hard contact is somewhat similar to LaMonte Wade Jr. and if the power jumps similar in the end don’t color me surprised.Aeverson Arteaga, SS ↑
I’m skeptical that the offensive numbers from the complex are meaningful but, as with Schmitt, I think the glove is a carrying tool. This is the best defender I’ve seen in the system since the days of Ehire Adrianza and that type of career could well be Arteaga’s future.Will Wilson ↔
More a “sum of the parts” player than one with a standout tool, Wilson might end up a 2b, a utility player, or a Wilmer Flores-like platoon bat rather than a left-side starter. He’s really struggled at Double-A (40% K rate!) thanks to an overly pull-conscious approach.Sean Hjelle ↔
Hjelle doesn’t have a big ceiling but he’s a decently safe 4th or 5th starter (as safe as minor league pitchers can be, anyway) thanks to his strike throwing ability and unusual throwing angle that generates tons of ground balls.Prelander Berroa ↑
I might be making the mistake of blowing Berroa up too high on a single look, but this is an impressive power repertoire that can play at higher levels with continued development of his command. He needs to develop the change further to stay a starter.
40 FV Tier (Potential Utility Players or +FV with Extreme High Risk)
Hunter Bishop, OF ↓
Tough year for a former 1st rounder, part 1. It’s not his fault that injury has robbed Bishop of most of the season, but the still-raw talent really needed the reps that he’s lost. Perhaps nobody in the system has been more harmed by two wasted years. Bishop needs to get on a field (at a higher level than ACL) and stay there for awhile to get the experience needed to convert his physical tools to consistent baseball production.Manuel Mercedes, RHP ↑
Again, I might be blowing him up too much based on one viewing — but what a viewing! Incredibly loose delivery that unleashes tremendous power with ease and the makings of a plus power breaking ball as well. This is such an exciting arm to dream on (though such dreams are notoriously insubstantial).Ricardo Genovés, C ↑
Genovés was the best player on a stacked San Jose team (though that’s different from the best prospect). He’s also a natural leader behind the plate. Has had a few defensive questions this year, but Power+Walks+C = big leaguer in my book.Matt Mikulski, LHP
Jim Callis said he thought Mikulski might go in the 1st round, which suggests he should be higher on the list. But the left-hander’s strike-throwing history isn’t quite long enough for me to push him higher. Like most of the 2021 draft, there’s a decent amount of reliever outcome risk here. But he’s also a lefty who throws in the mid-90s and has multiple pitches.
35+ FV Tier (Fringe Big Leaguers Players/ or Avg FV with High Risk)
Brett Auerbach, C/INF/OF ↑
From undrafted to my Top 20? You betcha! Auerbach is a player who provides value in a huge variety of ways. OBP + multi-positional player + enough pop to be dangerous? Also = big leaguer. I’m a believer. I suspect the power he’s showing in the High-A West isn’t really who he is, but the rest of the package should carry him.Patrick Bailey, C ↓
Tough year for a former 1st rounder, part 2. It would be hard to script a more disappointing debut for the top 15 pick who tumbled down a level (essentially switching places with Genovés) and still hasn’t performed. Back issues have apparently plagued him all year, and Kyle Haines has said that the lack of a short-season debut problem impacted his year. The defense is great. The bat has been anything but.Adrian Sugastey. C ↑
Sugastey could well end up being the best offensive player in the 2019 J2 class. It’s a simple, direct swing that generates loud contact. He hasn’t shown much power and Arteaga’s stolen the headlines from the complex, but I think the bat is on a good trend line. Defense is a little behind the bat for now.Ryan Murphy, RHP ↑
Along with since-departed Caleb Kilian, nobody boosted their profile more this year than 5th round pick Murphy. He can paint the corners and knows how to set hitters up for the putaway pitch. Currently leading the minors in strikeouts.Armani Smith, OF ↑
Athletic and powerful, Smith has shown much better feel for hitting this year, with a .300 average overall, while striking out less than 20% of the time in High-A. Told me he hopes to boost the walk totals by being more disciplined at plate.Ismael Munguia, OF ↑
No tools that grade out all that well, but the Nicaraguan spark-plug helps the team win in every possible way. Like Auerbach this is a classic over-achiever, high-energy profile that can provide surprising value. He’s solid in the field, on the bases, has enough pop to get in trouble, and brings arguably the best contact bat in minor league baseball. He’s not a guy who you’ll see on many prospect lists, but I can’t leave him off mine. He’s a keeper.Carson Ragsdale, RHP
The gangly, 6’8” starter has the fourth highest strikeout total in the entire minor leagues and a full repertoire of pitches that he commands decently well. As with most Low-A pitchers, command needs to develop to stick as starter. Another canny pick up for a Giants front office that is always on the lookout for talent.Nick Swiney, LHP ↓
Swiney made just one start before suffering a freak concussion and took nearly three months to get back into a game, thanks to lingering symptoms. I’m breaking my rule about pitcher injuries here — especially risky given all of the unknowns that surround concussions — and I’m not entirely convinced that I should! Swiney has a plus change and curve, but a fringier fastball.Diego Rincones, OF ↑
Dude. Just. Hits. He’s added big time power to preternatural bat to ball skills. It’s a pure DH profile, but don’t doubt his ability to mash his way to the big leagues.Tyler Fitzgerald, INF ↑
You’d really like to see the strikeouts come down, particularly at his relatively low level of competition. But solid middle infield defense + power is a successful route to the big leagues. Possible the arm is too fringy for left side.Jimmy Glowenke, INF ↑
Glowenke tried to play through a bum wrist, leading to some ugly numbers at the start of the year. As health returned so did his ability to hit. Not the defender Fitzgerald is, but might have better hit tool.Alexander Saurez, OF
Luis Matos’ cousin and close friend brings tools that are more akin to the departed Alex Canario (no wonder I needed to put him on here!): speed, a strong arm, and lightning bat speed. He’s still raw in all phases of the game but despite some swing and miss he’s hit well as a pro (.329 in 45 games) and is showing an exciting blend of power (5 HR, .560 SLG) and speed (10 SB) in the ACL.R.J. Dabovich, RHP ↑
My one relief pitcher (maybe!). And, yes, he represents one guy I think could be a future closer. He’s shown high 90s fastball with decent control and a power slider with a punishing break. He’s currently on the IL, which nearly scared me into dropping him off the list. But having no relievers on the list (or are there?) seemed a skeptical bridge too far.
That’s my list. How about yours?
The Week that Was
HITTER of the WEEK: Sandro Fabian, 11 for 23, 4 HR, 3b, 11 RBI .478/.520/1.078
PITCHER of the WEEK: Kyle Harrison, 6.2 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 14 K, 2 HB
Fabian barely sneaks out the honor over teammate David Villar (.800 SLG with 3 doubles and 3 HR) and the incandescent Jairo Pomares (1.271 OPS). As for pitching, Harrison didn’t last particularly long in either of his two starts this week — it was particularly eye-brow raising to see him be replaced after just 2 innings on Sunday — but 14 strikeouts in less than 7 innings (to go along with just one hit in each start) is pretty hard to ignore!
Sacramento River Cats: 38-51
(2-4 week)
Transactions (I’ll skip options up and down from SF this week)
Add C Ronnie Freeman (reinstated from Development List)
Delete RHP Tyler Beede (placed on 7-day IL)
Add RHP Sean Hjelle (promoted from Richmond)
Add LHP Scott Kazmir (returned from Temporary Inactive List)
Delete RHP Trevor Hildenberger (placed on 7-day IL)
It continues to be a curiosity that Sacramento languishes in the Triple-A West basement with a run differential that should boost them much higher in the standings. The simple fact remains that the team has won just two series all year. The River Cats’ record in one run games (8-14) and extra innings games (0-5) put the trouble squarely on the relief pitching, as does the fact that taking a lead doesn’t help Sacramento nearly as much as it should — they’re just 30-14 when leading after 5 innings. By contrast, when trailing after five the team is 4-32. Of course, Sacramento has operated for most of the year without anything resembling a starting rotation, so I’m not sure trying to separate the pitching staff into starters and relievers makes much sense.
One pitcher who has consistently taken starts for the team was Tyler Beede, but Beede recently went onto the IL with lower back pain. Beede’s return from Tommy John surgery certainly hasn’t gone as he or the Giants had hoped. The right-hander has a 6.66 ERA on the year (ominous!) with 45 walks in 48.2 IP. With just a month and half left in the season, one has to wonder if the Giants will eye his 40-man man spot for any needed changes. If the back pain threatens to keep him off the field for a few weeks they might want to shift him back to the 60-day IL and shut his return down.
The Giants also added several new pitchers to the Sacramento staff — essentially “Break Glass in Case of Emergency” types. Of the new guys, 36-year-old Logan Ondrusek, signed out of the Mexican League, has made the best first impression as a starter. The former Reds reliever has pitched 8.2 innings in two starts while allowing three runs. That gives him a leg up (pardon the pun) over Matt Shoemaker, who has been pummeled for 12 earned runs in his first two starts in Sacramento. Former Rockies/Cubs starter Tyler Chatwood has been used solely in relief and has been effective there so far, striking out 6 in 5.2 IP.
As for real prospects, Sean Hjelle exchanged places with his former rotation-mate Matt Frisbee to join the Triple-A roster. Sean Hjelle made his second Triple-A start on Sunday and, as Frisbee would certainly attest, did creditably well in allowing 4 earned runs over 6.1 innings. Hjelle has struck out just 3 batters in 12.1 innings with Sacramento, while walking six — that doesn’t seem like a sustainable route to success! But what is probably sustainable is inducing large quantities of ground ball outs. Hjelle recorded 12 outs via the ground ball on Sunday, giving him 21 over his first two Triple-A starts. That’s going to be his secret sauce if he’s to have success. Hjelle continues to look like the epitome of a 5th starter and should be added to the roster this winter (if not later this year).
The hitting side is where Sacramento excels — and well they should, as the daily lineup is now looking an awful lot like a Giants game from mid-June. Steven Duggar, Mauricio Dubón, Jason Vosler, Mike Tauchman, Thairo Estrada — there’s a lot of guys in this River Cats lineup who might be getting sized for rings if things break right this fall! Of that group, the hottest of late has been Vosler. Since returning from his most recent big league stint, Vosler has homered five times in 11 games. He’s hit .324 with a .435 OBP over that stretch, scoring nine runs and driving in 14. He’s also been doing his best Tommy La Stella imitation, with 8 BB to 9 K.
There are two players, however, who many thought would be contributing at the big league level this year who haven’t been much of a factor. Joey Bart has had two brief appearances in the big leagues, getting in six at bats. In Sacramento, his year has been marred by a couple of IL stints. He’s currently sitting out with a quad strain. Bart’s overall numbers look strong (.314/.379/.536) but they’re buoyed by a sky high batting average on balls in play (.418) that likely doesn’t bear up to scrutiny.
Heliot Ramos is still looking to find his footing in Triple-A, but he passed a major milestone this weekend when he went deep for his first time as a River Cat — once again going out to right field.
That shot came one night after an 0 for 4, 3 K game and strikeouts continue to be an issue for Ramos. He’s had 28 K in 89 PA with Sacramento, though he is also walking at a good clip (11%). As noted above, he’s always been young for his level and has taken most of his lumps at the hand of older, more experienced pitchers.
What’s Next?: After finishing up in Salt Lake City, Sacramento returns home to take on Seattle’s top affiliate, the Tacoma Rainiers, starting Thursday. Tacoma is just one game behind Reno for 1st place. Ironically, Sacramento has played some of their best baseball this year against Reno, nearly splitting the season series (11-13).
Richmond Flying Squirrels: 44-46
(2-4 week)
Transactions:
Delete RHP Sean Hjelle (promoted to Sacramento)
Delete RHP Ryan Walker (re-assigned to Eugene)
Add RHP Gerson Garabito (re-assigned from Sacramento)
Add OF Luis Alexander Basabe (activated off 7-day IL)
Richmond entered the week, 9th in the league in team home runs — so it was something of a surprise when they bashed 15 in a single week in Bowie. That’s 15% of their entire season’s output! The ball does jump in Prince George’s Stadium, particularly in the hot, humid weather and we’ve definitely been at peak yucky season in the mid-Atlantic states lately. Four different Squirrels went deep at least twice during the week (Villar, Fabian, Diego Rincones, and Brandon Martorano), with Fabian leading the pack with four. Fabian crushed two homers in the second game of a 7-inning double-header on Saturday and came back Sunday afternoon to rip his third in 24-hours. That coincided with Villar having his own two-homer game.
Together, these two Bash Brothers went 21 for 48 in the series with seven home runs, a triple, and three doubles! Quite a performance. Fabian and Villar are, each in their own way, intriguing prospects who have their own argument for inclusion at the tail-end of my list above. Still just 23, Fabian isn’t that far removed from being a Top 10 prospect in the system (though the system is pretty far removed from that level of talent). He almost never walks — he’s taken just 9 free passes so far this year — but he doesn’t strike out much either and he can really impact the ball. Fabian’s hitting .270/.305/.498, which is an impressive showing in a very difficult league and home park.
Villar’s bat sputtered through the first couple of months of the season, but he’s picked up as the year’s gone along. In the month of August, he’s hitting .326 with a .400 OBP and a SLG over .600. Villar has actually kept the strikeouts in check somewhat this year (27%) and walks a decent amount (9.6%). He also shows excellent hands and arm at 3b. It’s a power over hit profile, but there’s a path for guys like Villar to succeed.
Diego Rincones had seven hits over the series’ first three games, including homers in back to back games. That gave him a streak of five consecutive games with an RBI, including four consecutive games in which his hit had given the team the lead. And let’s not forget 16th round pick Martorano, who played in just three games last week but managed to go deep in two of them. Martorano has struggled to hit for average since his promotion to Richmond (.182), but he has knocked five out of the park.
There were no home runs for Will Wilson, but he did finish the weekend on a positive note, with three hits in his final two games. That’s a step in the right direction for a guy who had struck out in 16 of 23 at bats heading into Saturday’s double-header. Wilson has struck out 37% of the time since coming up to Richmond, and 30% of the time overall in 2021. His average for the season is now .220, but he’s been pushed aggressively for a player in his first full season.
Unfortunately for the Squirrels, the Richmond pitching staff was nearly as generous at surrendering homers as the hitters were at accumulating them. Bowie went deep 13 times in the series themselves. Matt Frisbee brought his dingeritis with him back down from Sacramento (two homers allowed in his start) and he infected Michael Plassmeyer (three homers allowed) with it as well. In each of the first three games, the two teams combined for five home runs, with the winning team going deep three times and the losing team twice. That principle — the team with the most dingers, wins — held steady until the series finale, when Richmond missed a chance to leave with a split, despite hitting four souvenirs into the woods, including three in a single inning. Bowie’s Zach Watson matched Fabian with four home runs in the series, including one that gave the home team their margin of victory in the final game.
What’s Next?: Richmond returns home for their penultimate series of the year and gets their first look at the Erie SeaWolves. Their timing for this matchup is impeccable, as Erie just sent a trio of its best prospects to Triple-A, including the first overall pick of the 2020 draft, Spencer Torkelson, and the 5th overall pick of the 2019 draft, Riley Greene. So, uh….my hopes for getting some elite prospect watching in this week were kind of dashed there I guess. Sad trombone.
Eugene Emeralds: 52-38
(3-3 week)
Transactions:
Add RHP Ryan Walker (re-assigned from Richmond)
Add OF Kwan Adkins (re-assigned from ACL Giants Orange)
Add C/INF/OF Brett Auerbach (activated from 7-day IL)
Delete LHP Bryce Tucker (Released)
Delete INF Nolan Dempsey (Released)
It’s been a bumpy transition process for the Giants top prospect Marco Luciano since coming to High-A. The #6 prospect in baseball (according to Baseball America) struck out 11 times in 24 at bats in Hillsboro this week, giving him 21 K in 10 games with Eugene. Not ideal! But it’s worth recalling that at the beginning of this year, Luciano had at least one strikeout in 15 of his first 16 games with San Jose, punching out 18 times in 66 ABs over that stretch while hitting just .212. We’ve seen him scuffle at the beginning of assignments and we’ve seen him make the necessary adjustments. That’s development. It’s not about never failing; it’s about adjusting after you do.
Which is something that some of Marco’s new teammates could certainly bear witness to. At the end of July, Sean Roby was hitting just .188 with a woeful .651 OPS. But with the flip of the calendar, he’s finally flipped it into Crush Mode, going 19 for 54 with six doubles, five home runs, and 14 RBI. Roby provided the margin of victory in the 8th with his 14th home run of the year. In just 15 days, he’s raised his OPS more than 100 points and has his average up to a still suspect (but better!) .220. Roby can put on a show in batting practice, and though a big-framed kid, he’s a smooth and capable defender at the hot corner. The slugger was almost solely responsible for dragging Eugene to a series split, as he figured in every one of Eugene’s four runs in a 4-3 victory on Sunday. Here’s his game winner from yesterday, complete with bat flip:
Another Emerald who was happy to see the end of July is Armani Smith. The athletic corner OF hit just .203 in July and spent the final week of the season on the IL after getting hit in the wrist with a pitch. Like Roby, he’s found another gear in August, hitting .377/.431/.585 this month with three doubles, a triple and two home runs.
Coincidentally, you can hear Smith talk about his year, along with teammate Ricardo Genovés, on the latest There R Giants podcast.
And while we’re on the topic of things you might have missed, I also spoke with Ryan Murphy while I was in Eugene and profiled him here. Murphy once again climbed to the top of the minor league strikeout mountain, when he K’d 9 Hillsboro Hops on Saturday night. Murphy’s near perfect melding of “fastball” with “outside corner” gave him 141 punchouts for the year, once again hop-scotching over the Nats far more heralded Cade Cavalli. If you read my interview with Murphy, I’m sure you’ll be rooting for this bright, confident kid.
Despite all the hitting, Eugene nearly fumbled the series, dropping three of their first four games in Hillsboro. Tyler Fitzgerald’s two-homer, five RBI night helped them salvage one of those first four games, though it took a five-run 10th inning to secure even that. But Eugene rallied to take the final two games and salvage a split thanks to the efforts of Murphy and Roby, and yet more offense from Fitz.
Fitzgerald, at this point, is leading the High-A West in hits (90), 2b (26), RBI (68), and total bases (168), and he’s the league’s active leader in home runs (16) just one off the pace of the now-departed Rockies prospect Michael Toglia. Do you see why he made my rankings?
Speaking of guys in the rankings, Brett Auerbach returned to the field of play on Sunday for the first time since taking a fastball to the ear flap back on August 4th. Welcome back, Brett! It’s good to see you again.
What’s Next? Why, I’m glad you asked:
Time to get some licks in against the Everett AquaSox!
San Jose Giants: 55-35
(2-4 week)
Transactions:
Delete C Patrick Bailey (placed on 7-day IL)
Delete INF Tyler Wyatt (released)
Delete RHP Justin Crump (released)
Add INF Ghordy Santos (re-assigned from ACL Giants Black)
Add RHP Cole Waites (re-assigned from ACL Giants Orange following rehab with ACL Giants Orange)
Add LHP Nick Swiney (activated from 7-day IL following rehab with ACL Giants Black)
For the first time all year, San Jose has lost back to back series. Dropping a hard-fought series in Fresno, home of the 1st place Grizzlies, was one thing. But losing a home series vs. the Nuts was clearly another. After laughing their way through Modesto’s error-plagued goat rodeo on Wednesday, San Jose had beaten the Nuts in 16 out of 20 contests on the season, and had an eight-game winning streak over Modesto in which they’d outscored them by 47 runs. So dropping the series’ final four games was a stunning development. To make the pill even more bitter, two of the losses came in extra innings.
For the first time, the talent depletion is starting to wear the San Jose roster a little thin. The promotions have been coming regularly now for months: first Ricardo Genovés, then Armani Smith, Brett Auerbach, Ryan Murphy, and finally Marco Luciano. San Jose was also one of the system’s losers in trade season, dropping Alex Canario and Ivan Armstrong from the lists. As this week evolved, they also suffered from the injury bug. Casey Schmitt was hit in the hand by a pitch and missed the final five games (he’s listed as day to day). Patrick Bailey, who has scuffled throughout the year, was placed on the Injured List after being replaced mid-game on Thursday. It’s all starting to add up for a roster that just isn’t quite as imposing with Najee Gaskins, Yorlis Rodriguez, and Abdiel Layer in the lineup on a regular basis. The new recruits will help. I’m particularly excited to see Ghordy Santos finally get to test himself against full-season competition, and certainly Nick Swiney and Cole “His Fastball Never” Waites will be a balm to a pitching staff that’s been leaking fluids lately.
The Giants’ offense this week was primarily a two-man weave of 19-year-old Luis Matos and just turned 21-year-old Jairo Pomares. The prodigious pair accounted for nearly half of the entire team’s 31 hits over the final three nights. After suffering his own HBP scare last week, Matos went right back to swinging it, with 11 hits in 27 at bats. Six of those hits went for extra bases, including his first multi-homer game this year (and second in his career). With 38 extra-base hits this year, Matos has pushed his SLG over the .500 mark. Why, he even found time to work a walk this weekend — #18 on the year.
Pomares’ was a blistering 10 for 23 this week and nearly everything he hit was loud and hard, even the singles!
Pomares’ 51 games this year have been a revelation. Always considered a pure hitter, he’s had a prodigious power output in the Low-A. His Isolated Power is a truly eye-popping .321 — and that’s sitting on top of a .372 batting average. Almost exactly one half of his 74 hits on the season have gone for extra bases (14 homers, 22 doubles). If the Giants don’t elevate this guy soon, he could make a run at .400 in the Low-A West. He’s gone hitless in back to back games just once all year — way back on July 10-11. As Kyle Haines said recently, at some point you stop saying he’s on a hot streak and start saying “this is who he is.”
If the Giants are going to elevate this pair, now feels like the right time. With five weeks left in the season, there’s still enough development time left to see them get challenged by a new level and try to adjust — enough time for the results to matter. And by one report, it looks like at least one of the pair is moving on up.
Finally, let’s give a shoutout to Jimmy Glowenke. On Sunday, the 2020 2nd round supplemental pick tied a game in the bottom of the 9th with a solo home run for the second time in nine days. While he’s cooled off a little in August, he’s still hitting .301/.417/.575 since July 1 — with a flair for the dramatic!
On the pitching side, things were a little bleaker this week. Noticeably, starters have been going shorter and shorter in their games after stretching out longer throughout July. Whether that’s because the starts have become a little less effective and efficient — like Carson Ragsdale getting touched up for 6 runs in 5.1 innings on Thursday or Prelander Berroa walking four and nearing the 80 pitch mark after just 4.1 on Wednesday — or as a plan to reduce innings for a whole staff of pitchers forging new career highs is unknown.
Particularly curious was the week of Kyle Harrison. The 19-year-old made two starts but pitched less than 7 innings total. That’s not because those innings were ineffective — he allowed just one hit and no runs in each start and struck out 14 of the 27 batters he faced overall. In Sunday’s start, Harrison pitched just two innings, striking out five and hitting 95 mph with his final pitch. Whether this was load management or indication that something was not right for the youngster is the question. The former makes sense to me, but I still fear the latter.
What’s Next: The suddenly vulnerable looking Giants set out on their longest road trip of the year. They take the long bus trip down to Rancho Cucamonga to take on the Dodgers Low-A affiliate, and stay in the Southland an extra week to visit Lake Elsinore and the Pads affiliate. With Pomares’ bat now missing from the lineup, this is going to be a true test for the rest of the roster.
Arizona Complex League
Giants Orange: 18-16 (3-2 week)
Giants Black: 18-16 (2-3 week)
Transactions:
Delete LHP Marco Gonzalez (released)
Delete OF Javeyan Williams (released)
Delete INF Omar Medina (released)
Delete RHP Freddery Paulino (placed on 60-day IL)
Delete OF Kwan Adkins (assigned to Eugene)
Add RHP Tristan Beck (beginning Rehab Assignment from Richmond)
Delete INF Ghordy Santos (assigned to San Jose)
Delete RHP Cole Waites (ended Rehab and assigned to San Jose)
Delete LHP Nick Swiney (ended Rehab and re-assigned to San Jose)
…and of course a plethora of draft picks began being assigned to the complex league rosters. This week we saw pro debuts from 2020 draftees Ian Villers (8th), Vaun Brown (10th), Jared Dupere (13th), Brett Standlee (17th), Hunter Dula (18th), and Irvin Murr III (19th). Murr, a Florida high school kid, has started his career 0 for 8 and is, no doubt, hungering for that first professional hit. I’m sure we’ll start seeing the rest of the draft filter in soon as well. When and where we’ll see top pick Will Bednar? Remains to be seen!
Ghordy Santos’ promotion to San Jose was the culmination of a huge week that saw him go seven for 15 with two triples and two home runs as he worked his way back from a spring injury.
Cole Waites, meanwhile, hit 98 repeatedly when I saw him two Saturdays ago, and touched 100 in his next outing, suggesting that the arm was fine now!
There’s been a lot of hype around Aeverson Arteaga’s summer campaign — hype that I’m fully invested in spreading myself! But save a thought for the excellent campaign that Alexander Suarez is having on Team Black. After taking Blake Rivera deep on Saturday, Suarez is hitting .327/.382/.531 in 32 games with 5 HR and 10 SB. He’s tied for 6th in the league in HR (Arteaga’s 7 is still setting the pace). Despite some high strikeout totals, Suarez is hitting .322 in his brief career (including a short stint in the DSL in 2019), suggesting some ability to direct his excellent bat speed toward the flight of the ball.
Fireballing Manuel Mercedes holds the ACL lead in strikeouts (41) following his 5 inning, 7 K performance on Friday. He’s just one in front of rock star skinny Esmerlin Vinicio, and three in front of Giants Orange left-hander Sonny Vargas. Vinicio wins the ERA throne easily over the other two with a 1.89 mark thus far, as he’s allowed just 7 runs in 33 innings despite a sky-high 21 walks allowed.
Dominican Summer League
Giants Orange: 9-10 (3-0 week)
5th place in Northeast Division
Giants Black: 8-9 (2-2 week)
5th place in San Pedro Division
It’s been a struggle just to get on the field in the Dominican. Following ten days of cancellations due to a COVID outbreak, Giants Black finally was allowed back on the field Monday — only to run into a long stretch of rain coming from tropical storms. Those rains suspended Team Black’s Monday game in-progress and stopped Team Orange’s games on both Monday and Tuesday. More rain wiped out the entire league on Thursday and again yesterday! Both teams did managed to get in full double-headers on Friday and play their weekly scheduled friendly on Saturday.
In between all the cancellations, Giants Black got a big week from Yeison Lemos who went 4 for 12 across their four contests with two home runs, a double, and 7 RBI. Joe Salermo mentioned Lemos as a bat to watch for when he made a guest appearance on the There R Giants podcast, and Lemos looks to be the best bat on the Giants DSL teams along with perhaps Mauricio Pierre and Javier Francisco (both of whom remain out due to COVID protocols).
Another bat starting to wake up is Eliam Sandoval, a corner outfielder with a left-handed bat that has power potential. Sandoval went 4 for 9 in Team Orange’s three games with four doubles. He also has hit two home runs this year.
The leading pitchers so far appear to be Mikell Manzano, who fired 5 shutout innings with six strikeouts, giving him 24 for the year (tied for 6th in the league), as well as Rolfi Jimenez (0.93 ERA) and Johnny Grullon (0.71 ERA), who have been particularly stingy about giving up runs. That stands out because the two Giants teams are 43rd and 45th in the 46 team league in team ERA.
The two teams’ Saturday friendly ended on a play that brought back memories of the famous Harvey Haddix game. Trailing 4-3 in their final at bats, Orange tied the game on Sandoval’s double. A walk then loaded the bases and Derwin Laya stepped up and cranked a walk-off Grand Slam! Pretty exciting way to get your first career HR! Bizarrely, though, Laya was only credited for three RBI on his Grand Slam as Sandoval was called out at the plate, making it a Grand Slam that wasn’t. I’ll take a guess that Sandoval got caught up in the moment and neglected to run around the bases.
Laya, a strong-armed 3b out of Venezuela was one of the Giants’ six-figure signings from this bonus period, but, like several of his contemporaries, he’s gotten off to a difficult start, hitting just .220 so far. Here’s Laya from back when he was a 15-year-old to help you visualize the moment:
About Last Night
Sacramento lost @ Salt Lake Bees (Angels), 6-0
Notable Lines:
Mauricio Dubón SS: 1 for 3, K
Scott Kazmir: 4.1 IP, 3 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 3 BB, 4 K, WP, HB
Excellent point, Baggs! And one I’ve made myself a few times lately. Sadly, though the Giants have gotten a ton of game-winning value from this group, Sacramento has received…..less so. Last night they very nearly found themselves on the wrong end of a no-hitter in Salt Lake. Mauricio Dubón’s two-out, 8th inning single finally broke up the no-no. Fortunately, the River Cats had a friend in the Bees bullpen, as Dubón’s knock came off former Giants prospect Jose Marte. The power-armed reliever has now climbed from Eugene to Triple-A this year and could be seen in an Anaheim game near you sometime soon!
Scott Kazmir made his first start since returning from his Olympic experience, though it seems there was a bit of rust to shake off the ol’ arm.
ACL Giants Black lost @ ACL Rockies, 6-3 (7 inn)
Notable Lines:
Alexander Suarez CF: 2 for 3, 3b (2), 2b (7), 2 R, BB, K
Diego Velasquez SS: 1 for 3, 2b (2), RBI, BB, K
Hunter Bishop LF: 1 for 2, R, RBI, K
Richgelon Juliana RF: 1 for 2, K
Esmerlin Vinicio: 4.2 IP, 5 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 1 BB, 6 K, WP
ACL Giants Orange beat ACL Cubs, 8-1
Notable Lines:
Grant McCray CF: 1 for 4, 2 K
Aeverson Arteaga SS: 1 for 4, 3b (1), 2 R, 2 RBI, BB, K
Garrett Frechette 1b: 2 for 3, R, 2 RBI, 2 BB,
Adrian Sugastey C: 2 for 5, 2b (6), RBI, .353 BA
Anthony Rodriguez 3b: 1 for 3, RBI, 2 BB, K
Sonny Vargas: 5.0 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 2 BB, 5 K, 1 HR, WP
Jesus Gomez: 2.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 4 K Sv (1)
Alexander Suarez — whom you can find tucked neatly at position #29 on my Top 30 above — wore out Colorado’s 2018 1st round pick Ryan Rolison. The left-handed Rolison, who began the year in Double-A, is in the ACL camp on a rehab assignment. Suarez wasted no time, ripping a triple against him to lead off the game and coming back with a double off Rolison in his next at bat. The 19-year-old Suarez is now hitting .336 with a .560 SLG. Suarez was driven home the first time by 17-year-old Diego Velasquez’ double. Velasquez’ .234 batting average isn’t impressive, but I’m still intrigued by the way the youngest player in camp is holding his head above water.
Grant McCray has been playing CF of late. If he’s cleared medically, it might make sense for him to be the player who replaces Pomares (or dare I say Matos?) on the San Jose roster. The middle of the Team Orange’s lineup — Aeverson Arteaga, Garrett Frechette, and Adrian Sugastey — combined to reach base eight times, score three runs, and drive in five in Orange’s 8-1 win. Sugastey hasn’t hit for much power yet, but his line drive bat has produced a .353 batting average, which is top 15 in the complex league.
Both Giants’ ACL clubs had talented young left-handers on the mound. Esmerlin Vinicio took over from camp-mate Manuel Mercedes as the league leader in strikeouts, pushing his total up to 46 in 38 innings. Vinicio ran into some trouble in the 5th inning, however, and ended up allowing a season high 4 runs, pushing his ERA up to 2.61. Sonny Vargas has been alternating brilliant starts with poor ones lately (leading to his 5.80 ERA). Last night, the good Sonny showed up, going five innings and allowing just one run while striking out 5. Vargas, too, snuck by Mercedes on the K Leaderboard, pushing his total up to 43 (Mercedes is at 41). The trio is 1, 3, and 4 in the league in strikeouts. Vargas, at 20, is two years older than the other pair, who both came into the system in the same 2019 J2 class that brought Arteaga, Sugastey, and Anthony Rodriguez.
Dominican Summer League games were canceled due to rain
What’s On Tap?
Sacramento (Logan Ondrusek) @ Salt Lake (TBD), 5:35 pm, MiLBTV
Richmond (Aaron Blair) vs. Erie (TBD), 3:35 pm, MiLBTV
Eugene (Aaron Phillips) vs. Everett (Nate Fisher), 7:05 pm, MiLBTV
San Jose (Prelander Berroa) @ Rancho Cucamonga (TBD), 6:30 pm, MiLBTV
ACL Giants Black (TBD) vs. ACL D’backs (TBD), 6:00 pm, No Video
ACL Giants Orange (Trevor McDonald) @ ACL Athletics (TBD), 6:00 pm, No Video
DSL Giants Orange (TBD) @ DSL Brewers2 (TBD), 7:30 am, No Video
DSL Giants Black (TBD) vs. DSL Phillies White (TBD), 7:30 am, No Video
Eugene comes home to try to make up ground on the 1st place AquaSox in what would appear to be a playoff preview for the High-A playoffs. Time to bow your necks, Emeralds! It would be nice to see Luciano and Pomares have strong weeks. The somewhat denuded San Jose team, meanwhile, needs to regroup and find something within as they begin a long two-week sojourn in the southland. We’ll keep an eye on the ACL teams to see if some of the top draft picks from this year start appearing in games. It would be nice to see Bednar’s name in a box score soon. And it looks like teams are starting to take the field in the Dominican Republic this morning, so perhaps the Giants DSL teams can actually get in something like a normal week finally.
As if to spite me, the Tigers decided to promote two of the top 10 prospects in all of baseball (including the Pride of Petaluma, Spencer Torkelson) off the Erie squad and up to Triple-A on Sunday. So, no, Torkelson and Riley Greene will not be playing in Richmond this week. Boo, Tigers! I wanted to see hot, spicy, top prospect action!
Hey, but speaking of top prospects — let’s end today by noting that Baseball America came out with new organizational rankings yesterday and the Giants (even with a disappointing year here or there) have jumped up to the #5 organization in baseball by BA’s reckoning. BA specifically noted the role of the international department in “supercharging” the rapidly improving farm system.
That’s it for this this week’s Free For All Tuesday! If you want even MORE There R Giants content delivered daily, you can always become a subscriber!
I almost feel that guys with high draft slots that haven't produced--Wilson, Bailey, Hunter Bishop--are stealing spots in your top 30, but other than Ghordy Santos I don't know who else I would put on the list. Maybe Braden Bishop and Krizan, unless there is an age limit on who can be considered a prospect.
I like your list a lot. I can’t put Schmitt that high, but I understand your thinking. It’s funny - it used to be that I valued MLB-futures over raw talent; it would seem that you and I have swapped positions somewhat.😀
I look forward to your in-depth review this winter!