SF Giants Top 50: 1-5
We have reached the mountaintop
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Photo Credit: Randy Vazquez | Bay Area News Group
We’re finally here. The toppermost of the poppermost as John Lennon used to say, and there’s some exciting talent waiting here to greet us!
This is the seventh in a series of posts rolling out There R Giants Top 50 prospects for 2021. To read the previous installments:
One last time — as a reminder, in this post I’ll be using the 20-80 scouting scale to refer to player’s Future Value (FV), utilizing the great work done by Kiley McDaniel and Eric Longenhagen at Fangraphs. I’ve also added risk factors and lowered FV expectations for players far away. Here’s a handy guide with familiar examples to keep a picture in your mind on what the FV grades mean:
80: Franchise Player, #1 starter (Mike Trout, Clayton Kershaw)
70: Perennial All Star, #2 starter (Nolan Arenado, Stephen Strasburg)
60: Occasional All-Star, #3 starter, Elite Reliever (Jose Abreu, Mariano Rivera)
55: First Div. Regular, #3/4 starter, Closer (Brandon Crawford, J. Samardzija, Z. Britton)
50: Average Regular, #4 Starter, Set Up RP (Cesar Hernandez, Tanner Roark, A. Ottovino)
45: 2nd Division Reg or Platoon player, #5 starter, low leverage reliever
40: MLB Bench Player/Reserve
35: Up and Down/Depth Player
30: Triple-A Player
20: Organizational player
Back in the spring and throughout most of the summer, I had Alex Canario in the #5 slot and intended to keep him there. And it’s no slight on him that he is now the #7 guy in my rankings. The fact that two different players managed to push past him is totally a reflection of the growing strength and depth of the system. From one perspective, it’s like the Giants now have seven players in their top five!
Yes, Homer, it is! But from another, more linear and Newtonian perspective (two bodies cannot occupy the same space at the same time), there can be only five players in the top five, and it’s finally time to meet them…
#5. Luis Matos, OF
DOB: 1/28/02
2019 Highest Level: Rookie (Domestic)
Potential 2021 Level: Low A
Acquired: International Free Agent (2018)
Future-Value Grade: 55+ (Risk: Very High)
He came without minors!
He came without games!
He came without box scores or stat lines or fame!Rog puzzed and he puzzed till his puzzler was lame.
Then the prospector thought of something that brought him near shame
Maybe prospects, he thought, are more than just their acclaim
Maybe prospects, perhaps, have their own special flame.
Oh hell, did Luis Matos have himself a year — without any season at all. Far away from the Summer Camp or 60-Player Pool or development staff. He got bigger and he got stronger, and he worked his butt off all winter. When Spring training came he was already drawing raves from the likes of Pat Burrell (who was supposed to be San Jose’s hitting coach):
"He creates a lot of torque, a lot of bat speed. It looks easy for him,"
Then the shutdown came and Matos, stuck in Scottsdale when Venezuela closed its borders and left to his own developmental devices, spent the summer honing and perfecting that easy swing. Every day. Every week. On his own. Working it.
And the result of all this work? When he showed up at Instrux in the Fall, Luis Matos was in mid-season form — a daily highlight machine. If I tried to drop even half of the highlight videos of Matos that @SFGProspects provided it would push today’s post beyond all reasonable size. And Matos himself gave us even more on his Instagram feed. It was constant. It was daily…doubles, triples, homers. It was just an assault.
An assault that mirrored very closely, Matos’ incredible pro debut. I never get tired of repeating some of these numbers from Matos’ 2019. He started his career 0 for 6 in his first two games (one of which he left after a HBP). From there on, he had:
more 3 hit games (8) than 0 hit games (7)
three hitting streaks of 11 or more games, including a 17 game streak, in a 60 game season
only one occasion where he had back to back hitless games
more extra base hits (34) than strikeouts (31)
an on base percentage of .444.
He did all of that — earning himself a surprise promotion to the AZL in the process — and then, he went out and made himself BETTER.
Matos was expected to be a good prospect — the Giants signed him to the third highest bonus in their dynamite 2018 J2 class (for the players’ protection teams frequently don’t announce signing bonuses for Venezuelan players). But unlike Luciano and Pomares, Matos wasn’t considered advanced enough to head straight to the AZL.
But Matos has spent the last 15 months making kindling of expectations. As an amateur, scouts saw a good hitter, with solid contact skills and maybe doubles power. He had played for Venezuela’s international 15U team and had a decently long track record. But he’s proved as a pro that scouts were a little light on the hit tool AND that there’s more power in his small (5’11”) frame than was anticipated.
Like several other Giants prospects (including the two we’ll cover next) Matos is a CF who may or may not be able to stick up the middle. Haines noted that in Instructional Camp they’ve been working with Matos to improve his reads and routes so he doesn’t just rely on his speed. His speed is well above average now but may tick down some as he matures.
It now appears that the bat will play even if he’s forced to a corner. But if he can stick in CF, the ceiling is very high. Matos has been something of an unknown commodity thus far because he’s very rarely been seen in games in the U.S., but there’s every reason to believe he’s going to explode in 2021. Matos should put the Excite[ment] into Excite Field next summer. And I’d start making plans to get out and see him while he’s there, because he might not be there all that long.
Meanwhile, enjoy the many many highlights he produced in Instrux.
#4. Hunter Bishop, OF
DOB: 6/25/98
2019 Highest Level: A-
Potential 2021 Level: High A
Acquired: Draft, 1st Rd (2019)
Future-Value Grade: 55+ (Risk: High)
There were, no doubt, some Giants fans left more than a little disappointed by Bishop’s lackluster pro debut. There were folks singing their Peggy Lee for sure: “A top 10 pick in the draft hitting .224 in short-season ball? Is that all there is?”
Something was definitely amiss with Bishop in his debut following a scintillating Junior year at Arizona State — whether he was fatigued from the long year, or was tripped up by the long pause between the end of his college season and the start of his pro career. To my eyes, when I was doing the research for the “Swing or Take” piece I did on Bishop, he did look gassed at the end of the year. To make things worse, his participation in the Summer Camp restart was delayed by a Positive COVID test and difficulties in getting cleared to return to action. If you wanted to be some measure of concerned, you could construct a plausible argument as to why.
But I’m here to tell you to Mulligan all your doubts away. This is why you don’t scout the stat line or worry overmuch about low level performances. In Bishop, the Giants have an athlete with a football player’s physique (he could have gone to college as a Wide Receiver) and a baseball player’s skills. And like many former two-sport players he’s still coming into his own on the diamond. He brings together an exciting package of tools and skills: huge raw power, tremendous speed, and an extremely strong sense of when to swing and when not to. That’s a combination that this organization values highly.
As with Matos, Bishop is a CF who may or may not stick at the position. As I’ve noted before, it’s basically impossible to find a historic antecedent for a player Bishop’s size playing regularly in CF. But he definitely has a CF’s pure burst of speed. Check out this mad dash scoring from 1b on a ball hit directly down the LF line:
Dude can motor — and not just for 6’5” player built like a linebacker, it’s true plus speed. Bishop’s one below average tool is his arm which could be a limiting factor in a CF as big as Oracle's, though his arm had played stronger in his earlier years at ASU, so it’s hard to say if that’s going to be an issue going forward.
But if he remains a CF then he has an easy profile as an above average starting major leaguer who will defend:
…walk plenty, runs the bases well and hit for jaw dropping power:
There’s going to be swing and miss there and it’s an open question where the hit tool lands (though Haines has said Bishop was the star hitter of Instructional camp). But if, like Melissa Lockard, you’re imaging the overall package could be something akin to a left-handed George Springer, I wouldn’t blame you any. And that’s something we should all be dancing for joy about.
#3. Heliot Ramos, OF
DOB: 9/7/99
2019 Highest Level: AA
Potential 2021 Level: AAA
Acquired: Draft, 1st Rd (2017)
Future-Value Grade: 60 (Risk: High)
Amid all the various video tidbits that came out of the fall Instructional camp, Heliot Ramos’ highlighs were noticeably missing. For the second time this year, Ramos lost time due to an oblique strain. Given Ramos’ muscle-bound build, those kind of repetitive soft-tissue injuries are something to keep a general eye on (he also missed some time at the Alternate Site with a leg infection). But the major result of his missed time was that some fans may be starting to take for granted one of the organization’s most promising and exciting talents — and one of the very few top prospects who are nearing big league readiness.
For those who’ve forgotten in all the excitement over the rookie level kids, Ramos’ 2019 campaign was really the triumph of the organization. Playing the entire season at age 19, Ramos made extraordinary progress in his plate discipline, showing a controlled aggression that resulted in the fourth best OPS in the California League (.885). His walk rate jumped up by 50% (from 6.5% in 2017-18 to 9.5%) and with it he showed renewed power. His Isolated slugging in the Cal League was nearly .200 and he consistently showed plus power to both his pull side and to the opposite field — which is a true sign of eventual plus game power for a teenager. His groundball rate ticked down (from 48 to 45%) and his HR/FB rate rocketed upwards (from 11 to 17%). He seemed to lift every element of his offensive game up significantly.
While AA pitchers did have plenty of lessons to teach the teenager after his promotion (becoming the first teenager in Richmond’s 10-year history with the Giants), he got his licks in, too, ending the year memorably with a monster blast in his final game.
Ramos came into pro ball with the promise of being a power-speed type, but his thick, powerful build quickly caused the speed to knock down a tick. Still, he’s been a solid defensive CF in the minors thanks to his strong ballhawking instincts. He also possesses a strong and accurate throwing arm. All in all, he possesses the tools to be a weapon in the spacious RF of Oracle Park if he needs to move out of the middle.
But his carrying tool is going to be his run-producing capabilities, and particularly his middle of the order power. If he keeps progressing in his ability to recognize spin and lay off pitches he can’t drive, he should develop into a true middle of the order bat who brings more than a touch of intimidation with his swing.
According to Haines (as reported by Hank Schulman), Ramos was back doing side work by the end of camp. Rather than taking an end-of-year break he planned to roll right into his off-season hitting program to make up for lost time and come to camp prepared to compete for a big league job. Not to spoil Ramos’ plans, but that’s certainly not going to happen. Still, his work against big league arms in Sacramento last summer could put him in line for an opening day assignment in AAA Sacramento (particularly if other levels get a delayed start to the season). If he manages that jump successfully, he could be in line to see San Francisco before he celebrates his 22nd birthday.
#2. Joey Bart, C
DOB: 12/15/96
2019 Highest Level: AA
Potential 2021 Level: AAA
Acquired: Draft, 1st Rd (2018)
Future-Value Grade: 60 (Risk: Medium)
Is there any player that has caused me to spill more ink this year than Bart? He’s gotten my full-post attention no fewer than four times!
During Summer Camp when Buster Posey’s opt-out made his future the team’s #1 question.
A month later when his sustained absence from the big league roster provoked more and more interest.
What could there possibly be left to say at this point?
Primarily this: don’t be down on Bart just because a season that was set up to be a difficult experience for him ended up being a difficult experience for him.
Yes. He wasn’t ready. We knew he wasn’t ready. The Giants knew he wasn’t ready. He had an injury-shortened A ball season, some twenty games in AA, and a couple of weeks of AFL time in his duffle bag. He wasn’t going to be ready. And in the end — imagine that — we watched a player who wasn’t ready.
Not because of flawed decision making or poor development, simply because of flawed circumstances. How about that — Joey was just like the rest of us in 2020! There wasn’t any better environment to help his development AND the Giants badly needed something from the catching position — even below average was an improvement. So he got to drink from the business end of a fire hose for a couple of months. And next year, hopefully, he’ll get back to where he once belonged …. finishing school in AAA.
The difficulty of the majors — the incredible speed of the game which genuinely gave Bart many a “deer in headlight” moments — didn’t damage him and won’t break him. He’s still the same combination of power-arm, power-bat, strong defender behind the plate that makes his ultimate ceiling fall somewhere between “Good” and “Zowie!”
MLB catchers have posted 30 HR seasons just 47 times in big league history — only 17 of those have reached 35. That’s the potential type of power Bart offers the Giants when he’s ready. A guy who excels at a difficult and crucial defensive position while providing big power. And yes, finishing his pre-rookie year with a total of 0 HRs makes it difficult to hold to that potential. Where was it? Major league pitchers found a hole on the inner half and pounded him there, and Bart struggled adjust. Going forward he’s going to need to defend that hole. He’s going to have to focus on getting balls into the air — something he’d never really struggled with before. And, of course, he’s going to need to improve that truly scarifying 41 to 3 K:BB rate. That won’t work.
In other words, he’ll need actualize the organization’s hitting philosophy: hit it hard or walk. He’ll need to hone in on pitches he can punish and then actually punish them. Stop rolling over on balls that get in his kitchen, stop flailing at breaking balls at his shins. Easy to write, dreadfully hard to accomplish.
But don’t presume that he won’t accomplish it. Major league pitchers taught a Master’s level class to an underclassmen and now he’ll head to AAA to start reverse engineering those lessons and finish his degree. Before long he’ll be back, apprenticing under Buster Posey and we’ll see the promise that is still there.
If it bothers you that he didn’t hit a single homer in 2020, well, just close your eyes and imagine this one went three inches further:
#1. Marco Luciano, SS
DOB: 9/10/01
2019 Highest Level: A-
Potential 2021 Level: Low A
Acquired: International Free Agent (2018)
Future-Value Grade: 70 (Risk: Very High)
Wait! Stop right here! Did you read the Future Value or just skim over it? If you skimmed, go back and read it. 70. SEVENTY! That’s right! 70. And in case you’re skimming over my intros too, let me remind you of what that means:
70: Perennial All Star, #2 starter (Nolan Arenado, Stephen Strasburg)
Now smart writers don’t hand out 70s, and for very good reasons. It’s the solid, responsible, conservative approach to tamp down on enthusiasm and push everybody toward the middle of the Bell Curve where, after all, most players end up. Get too far out on that thin limb and it’s likely to break off behind you. It’s the type of Wile E Coyote sort of move that will leave you suspended in mid-air over a canyon holding an anvil.
Here at There R Giants I say “Hell with that!” Protected by the fact that I look stupid ALL THE TIME I have little need to safeguard my reputation. SEVENTY. Marco Luciano should be a perennial all star. He should be the guy who gets MVP votes. He should be the guy who’s not just in the All Star Game, he’s in the commercial advertising the All Star Game. He should be the guy whose jersey we buy, whose effort and skills we applaud; the one we bond and commune with, the one whose passion and devotion and dedication we support and admire. He should be The Guy.
Do I need to accumulate quotes and stats and support materials? No I do not. We’ve all been watching every note, every headline, every video highlight.
We know the promise: a boy among men who plays like a man among boys. Lighting bat speed with thunder in his hands — possessor of tremendous power since he was barely a teen, an arm and athleticism that could actually stick at shortstop or move comfortably to 3b. That’s an MVP-type player.
That’s who Marco Luciano should be. But as always, we know that the path from here to there is treacherous and that tomorrow is unwritten. So we make our supplications to the Great Mays that the goblins and blights be kept from his path. That he doesn’t fall for the distractions or detractions that can way lay his progress, that he concentrates always on the step he is taking. And that before too long, he arrives to thrill us.
How long? Given his work at the Alternate Site and again in Instrux, I can see a small chance that the Giants push him to High A to start 2021, though the greater likelihood is that he begins in Low A and looks for a quick promotion (particularly if the new High A team plays in a cold spring climate like Salem-Keizer). Either way I’d look for him to make the climb to AA before the end of 2021 — assuming that the low minors have something like a full calendar in 2021. If the year ends up with more camp work and long delays in playing that calendar could change. But regardless of the path, I have to believe that he can make it to the big leagues sometime in his 20th year, before 2022 is finished. How the Giants make that happen is the question.
Whenever he arrives, Luciano is the hand that opens the window. The future is coming. Prepare yourselves.
So that’s it. Fifty players and I really could have gone to 60 or 70 pretty enthusiastically. As always, go ahead and tell me what I got wrong (or even right) in the comments!
Going forward, I know I said I’d be taking a holiday break after this wrapped up, but as it happens I have two more small pieces that I’ll be dropping next week: a short (HONESTLY!) wrap up and final thoughts piece and something short on the minor league situation. The plan is to be off from Thanksgiving through the first week of December, come back on December 7 for regular posts up until the week of Christmas. Take another break and then crank things up again after the New Years and roll on into spring training.
Thanks again, everybody, for following along on this journey. There R Giants here. And they’re coming...
Awesome!
I'd go 75. But then, I only two hours sleep last night and am kind of loopy.