Giants Depth Chart: 3b
Clarity is a moving target
I hope everyone enjoyed Monday’s post on my conversation with the CEO of Salem-Keizer Volcanoes, Mickey Walker. The fate of the minor league system overall (and the Volcanoes in particular) is very much hanging in the balance in 2020, and that’s a story I hope to return to frequently as this summer wears on. There’s more on the topic in today’s Last Word (from a much more august source) on a story that is changing by the minute and has many miles to go before it sleeps.
But today we’ll return to my perusal of the Giants’ system by position, and moving up the ladder from LHP I come to one of my first major forks in the road. From here on out (save the RHP discussion) nearly everything will be colored by where people end up defensively — and specifically where Marco Luciano ends up. I’ll be honest, there’s a lot of fluidity going on in my top five spots right now — that will continue up to and beyond my final posts because hitting “publish” doesn’t affix my indecision any. But there’s no doubt that we wouldn’t be talking about 3b today if I assumed Luciano ended up here — which is distinctly possible. No that would rocket 3b well up the list (into that OF sphere).
Luciano’s defensive actions certainly made up the most lackluster portions of scouting reports last summer and it’s entirely possible that: a) he won’t be able to make the improvements necessary to play a big league SS competently, or b) his bat will move him up the ladder faster than his glove’s ability to keep pace, inevitably causing him to move down the defensive spectrum. And if that happens, almost anything — well, any corner spot — is in play for his ultimate destination.
So we all have to keep in our heads that from here out, almost every position we discuss is, to a greater or lesser degree, “Marco-dependent” and whether or not I talk about him, he’s lurking around the edges of my mind for many of these posts. Which is why, though the 3b position is really no deeper than 2b (and its top player is much further away), I’ve kicked it up in the pecking order. Ultimately, I like Toribio’s ability to impact a lineup, but I won’t deny that there’s presence hovering just offstage affecting my thought process here.
Top Tier
Luis Toribio, 19 yrs old, .297/.436/.459 in AZL
Once again we have a tier of 1 at the top. Toribio is yet another excellent find that the Giants international scouts brought into the organization while they were in the Lucius Fox penalty box. The left-handed hitter brings a resumé that can be reduced to three simple words:
Hit. Ball. Hard.
I mean….extremely hard. Over at Fangraphs you can filter the Prospect Board to include Trackman information, and Toribio’s ability to produce loud explosions last year stood out in the crowd.
Wait. Let’s enhance this a little bit to get the full picture. The above is a list of average exit velocities for all prospects in 2019. If I limit this to only prospects 20 years old or younger I get a list like this:
And that’s a list that has Toribio topping some pretty heavy hitters. Toribio might not bring the explosive bat speed or extraordinary lift-and-separate launch angle that players like Luciano, Julio Rodriguez, or Kristian Robinson do, but he does combine excellent bat-to-ball skills with another talent that is sure to ingratiate him with the Giants: an advanced approach at the plate.
Even as 17 year old in the Dominican Summer League, this was a skillset that stood out about Toribio. Writing about him in a roundup of the DSL’s best prospects that summer, Baseball America’s Ben Badler wrote:
He has a good eye for the strike zone, working deep counts with the ability to drive the ball for above-average power.
Moving up to the AZL last year, scouts were again impressed by his ability to control the zone. There are a lot of Giants prospects who are working on refining their plate approach; but Toribio is the Giants prospect who brings plate discipline as a primary platform from which to build.
His body and quickness may push him off 3b at some point (though his arm appears to work there), but he could end up with enough bat to make 1b work as well, if needed. However, like a lot of pieces the Giants are assembling in the minors, Toribio shouldn’t be expected to be ready until the 2023-24 range, and that was before we possibly lost a year of development. How the Giants are going to manage the timing of their rebuild is going to be an immense challenge.
Major League Depth Pieces
Well… uh… surprisingly none. Not really. Zach Green, who was previously noted in the 1b Depth Chart post, is still around (for 2020 at least). You can toss Cristhian Adames onto the pile here — but this is one spot on the diamond where there’s not a lot to reach down for in case of quick depth needs beyond the big league roster.
Low-Level Guys to Keep an Eye on
Sean Roby, 21 yrs old, .338/.429/.450 37G in S-K, .187/.228/.400 19 G in Augusta
If I had a Lock of the Week or a big Shoe In or a Click to Pick or whatever catchy turn of phrase you like for a sleeper positioned to breakout in whenever-year-comes-next I think it would be Roby. He’s not one of gang of teenagers that starts every conversation about the Giants improved system, but there are things to like with the 12th round pick from Western Arizona JC. Roby thrust himself into draft consideration with an outstanding performance in the Arizona state JC finals in 2018 following a year in which he had hit 20 HRs to lead the state.
He got off to a strong start last year in the NWL where he hit .338 with an .880 OPS and won the NWL-Pioneer League All Star HR derby (though he had oddly not hit for much power in the season). Roby can get the barrel through the inside half of the plate exceptionally well though, like a lot of young players, he can tend to get exposed on breaking balls away — part of the reason he struggled upon promotion to the Sally league for the final month of 2019.
Still, the year represented a nice opening act to his pro career and he followed it up by making a strong impression on the Giants coaching staff during the abbreviated spring training. Roby was called up from minor league camp several times for the Giants game squad and delivered frequently. New manager Gabe Kapler made a point of noting that those minor league camp call ups were given to players who were making strong impressions so we can surmise that his performance in the flotsam of spring games was the tip of the head-turning iceburg for him. He’ll head (someday) to Augusta (presuming…) to pick up where he left off in 2019, and could easily beat Toribio to the top of the system, potentially planting his flag in 3b before Luis can get there. He’s not overly mobile at 3b but he’s workable there and has tools to improve.
Two Who Haven’t Played Yet
Elian Rayo, 16 yrs old, $350,000 signing bonus
Yeison Lemos, 17 yrs old, $600,000 signing bonus
The Giants 2019 international class was led by a couple of shortstops, but they also grabbed some intriguing talent to pack the 3b depth chart in Nicaraguan Elian Rayo and Dominican Yeison Lemos. Rayo is a stocky player with excellent raw strength beyond his tender years (both in his bat and his arm). The body worries some scouts who don’t see him sticking at the hot corner. Some have suggested he could handle Catching, instead, though there’s a chance of the dreaded R-R 1b profile here too. Lemos has whippy right-handed power with good bat speed, and is the more natural infielder of the two, displaying natural hands, exchange and infield arm. Both should start in the DSL along with a pretty deep crop of international prospects.
Guys I mentioned Elsewhere
David Villar and Jacob Gonzalez have both seen most of their time as pros at 3b, but I covered both in the 1b depth chart where both make more sense to me. Cuban refugee Yorlis Rodriguez has similarly played predominantly 3b as a pro and might have made more sense here — but I was stretching for content in the 2b depth chart.
…
It’ll be interesting to see how the Giants handle the 3b position as Toribio and Roby are not far separated in age or experience, and could easily be teammates on several rungs up the ladder. You’d like to keep Toribio at 3b as long as possible to keep his athleticism lithe and limber. What say you folks? Who’s your Giant at the hot corner?
On this day in history
Bryce nailed our last historical lineup as hailing from the 2014 San Jose Giants. Well done! The Li’l Giants beat Bakersfield 9-2 April 17, 2014 thanks to a two-homer day from Elliot Blair and Mac Williamson’s first HR of the year.
Name the team and year:
Bond, 2b
Graham, CF
Rohlinger, SS
Pill, 1b
Neal, LF
Gonzalez, 3b
Evans, RF
Stewart, C
Banks, P
1975: Ed Halicki dominated the Albuquerque Dukes, throwing a complete game shutout in the high elevation, winning 2-0. The 24-year-old Halicki had spent the second half of the 1974 season in San Francisco, going 1-8 with a 4.24 ERA in his rookie year, but he was deemed in need of further seasoning to start the 1975 season. Halicki struck out 12 batters against the Dukes, setting a career high he would never exceed, though he would go on to have five double-digit strikeout games in the majors in ‘75. One of those performances would prove to be a career highlight, when on August 24, 1975 he threw a no-hitter against the New York Mets — the Giants first no-hitter since Gaylord Perry blanked the Cardinals in 1968. Halicki was a rotation stalwart for the Giants through 1978, but his career faded quickly thereafter. He was put on waivers midway through a disappointing 1980 season and after a short stint with the Angels at the end of that year, his career was over.
2009: The powerful San Jose squad improved their early season record to 10-4 with an 8-1 victory over Lake Elsinore. Nineteen year old Madison Bumgarner improved to 3-0 with an easy 5 innings and 1 run allowed. He was supported by HRs from Roger Kieschnick and Brandon Crawford. For Crawford it was his 4th of the year and pushed his season line to an absurd .373/.467/.686. He would homer again the following day to push his SLG over .700. Both he and Bumgarner would be promoted to AA Connecticut two weeks later.
2016: Clayton Blackburn pitched Sacramento to a 3-1 win over Las Vegas. Blackburn was a model of efficiency, facing just 29 batters over 8.1 masterful innings. The RHP was coming off a fantastic 2015 season in which he had posted a 2.85 ERA in his first shot at the PCL, and he would have been forgiven for thinking his major league debut was in the offing. Sadly, it never arrived. He would allow 15 runs over just 13 innings in his next three starts, starting a slide that saw his ERA balloon to over 5.00 by July. On May he was called up to San Francisco for bullpen depth, but never saw game action and was returned to Sacramento four days later. It was the only time he ever suited up for the Giants before being DFA’d the following spring.
Last Word
Obviously the biggest story today is happening on a conference call, where Minor League owners appear ready (or not!) to capitulate to a fairly radical reconstitution of minor league baseball going forward. There are many many details left to work out still as J.J. Cooper (who has been on top of every step of this story) lays out in this excellent piece.
And, of course, the follow-up denial:
And Evan Drellich of The Athletic added more details to the tale this morning:
There is a lot more point/counter-point that will have to be worked through before any great clarity emerges in this sad tale. We’ll need much more time to understand the full implications though it certainly appears that communities will be losing affiliated ball, players will be losing the chance to compete in pro ball, and, maybe saddest of all to my mind, scouting positions are going to be cut back across the industry. The landscape of our lives has changed dramatically in a stunningly short period of time. What was solid has become water, what was fluid has become smoke.
Is it just me or do Toribio’s bat speed and body/athleticism look much better than as they are typically portrayed in write ups?
Not sure on a lot of these names, but with Stewart and Pill, guessing like 2011 Fresno.