There R Giants #2: Marco Luciano
Fight the Fatigue!
Photo Credit: Samantha McCloskey | Richmond Flying Squirrels
Top 50 time is here! So far we’ve looked at:
50: Victor Bericoto
49: Chris Wright
48: Sean Roby
47: P.J. Hilson
46: Alexander Suarez
45: Mikell Manzano
44: Diego Velasquez
43: Carson Ragsdale
42: William Kempner
41: Seth Lonsway
40: Shane Matheny
39: Sean Hjelle
38: Brett Auerbach
37: Ricardo Genovés
36: Hunter Bishop
35: Nick Zwack
34: Erik Miller
33: Spencer Miles
32: Manuel Mercedes
31: Trevor McDonald
30: Ryan Reckley
29: Gerelmi Maldonado
28: Will Bednar
27: Ryan Murphy
26: Will Wilson
25: Nick Swiney
24: Jose Cruz
23: R.J. Dabovich
22: Adrian Sugastey
21: Patrick Bailey
20: Tristan Beck
19: Randy Rodriguez
18: Jairo Pomares
17: Carson Seymour
16: Landen Roupp
15: Tyler Fitzgerald
14: Heliot Ramos
13: Keaton Winn
12: Eric Silva
11: Cole Waites
#10: Reggie Crawford
#8: Mason Black
#7: Luis Matos
#6: Vaun Brown
#5: Grant McCray
#4: Aeverson Arteaga
#3: Casey Schmitt
We should probably talk about the concept of “Prospect Fatigue.”
Because I get the sense that that’s where people are with Marco Luciano at this point. As he continues to rehab, other, shinier prospects grab our attention with new, honest-to-god highlights and the former prodigy fades in our minds and hearts a little. Then here I come, not helping anything any by dropping Luciano from his #1 pedestal down to the #2 prospect in the org — it’s never great to go down rankings, even if it’s just a little inching down!
Elsewhere, he’s done more than inch. The one time #12 overall prospect in baseball for Baseball America, he entered this year’s Top 100 at #36. At Baseball Prospectus, the slide has been more modest — but still there, from a high of #8 to a current #18. Fangraphs just dropped the real bomb, however, when they nearly moved him out of their Top 100 altogether, listing him way down at #97, with a Future Value grade of 50 (league average starter), two years after slotting him at #8 with a 60 FV (All Star).
As it is with hype, so it is with fatigue that momentum tends to carry sentiments beyond a reasoned position, but that doesn’t mean that players don’t have very real “up arrow” and “down arrow” trend lines in their development — based on the development progress of skills and physical tools.
So let’s size up the elephant in the room and really talk prospect fatigue as we try to sum up the positives and negatives of Luciano’s development to this point.
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